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How do you rank the late-round QBs?

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As I've been prepping for my draft, I've been trying to identify my blind spots -- things I assume to be true without really examining my reasoning for thinking that. One that I've started noticing -- not just with myself, but also from other fantasy analysts -- is that the theory of drafting your QB late tends to come with the built-in assumption that there's not a lot of differentiation among that middle tier of QBs. While I do think it's smart to wait on QB, and while I do think the *downside* of getting that pick wrong is fairly low (you can just fall back on streaming), there is still a huge upside in getting it right. People who got Matt Ryan last year were the fantasy equivalent of the 2012-13 Seahawks, with a cheap QB that allowed them to fill out the rest of their roster with big-name studs. Similar thing with Carr. On the other hand, if you got Dalton late he probably screwed you (unless you gave up on him after a few weeks and started streaming).

With that in mind, I'm trying to really think through which of the late-round QBs I like, and which I'm wary of.

Here's my current groupings:

All-in (relative to ADP) 

  • Dalton -- huge bounce-back candidate, especially his TD rate
  • Rivers -- INTs should drop, but will still probably remain too high. But otherwise, he's got a fairly consistent track record of 4,500/30. He's basically a rich-man's Eli
  • Palmer -- another bounce-back candidate, plus easy early schedule
  • Wentz -- like his chances at a second-year leap
  • Luck -- OK, not really a late-round QB, but if injuries cause him to fall far enough, I'd gladly grab him and stream until he's healthy
  • Super late-round sleepers (Kizer/Hoyer) -- don't really want them, but if everyone else is gone I'd be OK taking a flier on either as my QB2.

Stay aways

  • Carr -- may be this year's Bortles
  • Taylor -- has been a fantastic value for the past two years, but at this point I don't think you can count on his job secuurity
  • Prescott -- huge regression candidate, especially with his INT rate
  • Bradford -- I actually think he could continue to improve. But he still won't be a reliable starter, plus he's always a huge injury risk
  • Veteran has beens (Flacco/Eli/Cutler/Smith) -- THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE. And that's not going to be very good

Neutral/undecided

  • Jameis/Mariota -- I like both but worry the hype has gone too far and will push their ADPs out of reach. But if I'm wrong and they fall to me, I'd have no problem taking them
  • Stafford -- I like him, and if anyone's going to be this year's Matt Ryan, he's the prime candidate. If I end up with him, it wouldn't be the worst thing. But I worry he might be in that No Man's Land of not being a reliable plug and play starter, but being too good to drop if I fall back on streaming
  • Cousins -- I doubted him last year and he proved me wrong. He may just be a guy who can put up consistent numbers. But that whole situation in DC scares me, with Cousins halfway out the door.

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Mariota could have some good numbers....alot of upside there.

Not sure where Big Ben is going in most leagues but he was a late rounder in my draft. Definitely needs to be considered if hes there.

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Ignoring ADP, I rank QBs 6-20 something like this:

Luck

Newton, Mariota, Roethlisberger, Prescott, Rivers, Winston, Cousins, Carr, Stafford, Dalton

Taylor, Palmer, Wentz, Manning

That whole middle tier (QBs 7-16) is packed pretty tightly together, which is one of the nice things about waiting on a QB. If I wind up not taking a QB until the 14th guy off the board, I don't care that much about which 13 are already gone. I could make a case for any of them.

 

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All - In

Dalton - AJ is back so Dalton is back 4 me

Palmer - Hey good early season matchups so fine streamer for early and we'll worry about later later

Bradford - Underrated and goes real late - not worried about any kind of injury with how late he is going

Neutral

Rivers/Stafford/Big Ben - Depends on how far they fall, usually one falls to a pretty good price

Luck/Newton - Depends on where they go; sometimes  in the 5th, sometimes in the 10th+

Kizer - Worth a gamble if I want to take a flyer and Bradford is gone

Mariotta - Another one that is draft dependent - love him in the 8th

Stay Aways

Dak/Wentz - I don't know how I feel about them so I usually end up passing

Winston/Carr/Cousins - They go too early for me with all the fine options later

Flacco/Cutler/TyGoat - Have been going late but I would rather take Palmer, bradford or kizer

Alex Smith/Eli - No thanks

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If you are waiting on QB, 8th-10th round seems to be the sweet spot.  You can get somewhere in the 5th-12th ranked QB in those rounds.  Or just hold off and be the last to pick your starter, and you probably won't be that far behind the 8th-10th round QBs.

If you take away the top 5 QBs from last year's QB scoring, the difference between the 6th scoring QB and the 12th was 26 points.  Those 5-12th ranked QBs are really all the same.

 

 

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16 hours ago, Fantasy Fool said:

If you are waiting on QB, 8th-10th round seems to be the sweet spot.  You can get somewhere in the 5th-12th ranked QB in those rounds.  Or just hold off and be the last to pick your starter, and you probably won't be that far behind the 8th-10th round QBs.

If you take away the top 5 QBs from last year's QB scoring, the difference between the 6th scoring QB and the 12th was 26 points.  Those 5-12th ranked QBs are really all the same.

Yeah, but my point was right now we don't know which QBs will finish where. Last year at this time, Ryan and Dalton were both being taken as late-round QBs, but if you took Ryan you got a Top 5 QB, whereas if you took Dalton you probably ended up dropping him.

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3 minutes ago, gbill2004 said:

How about McCown and Glennon?

First of all, I have a Mendoza Line in my draft, and those two are well south of it.

Second, with regard to their specific circumstances, McCown is always hurt, and both are very much in danger of losing their jobs within the first few weeks.

If you're drafting them, you're basically going all in on streaming right out of the gate. Which again, is not the worst strategy. But my goal is to at least give myself a chance of hitting with a late rounder.

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