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2017 Survivor Thread (1 Viewer)

L

ldizzle

Footballguy
So I'll try my best to update this every week.

Helpful link:

http://www.survivorgrid.com/

So who is everyone's week 1 pick for survivor leagues?

Panthers vs 49ers

Steelers vs Browns

Falcons vs Bears

 
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This might sound crazy but Id say the Rams vs. a QB-less Colts team. Home game, looks like Goff is playing better and the Colts look like a train-wreck right now

 
Kind of a tough week.  I have multiple entries so going with a mix of Bills, Steelers, Pats, Falcons and Texans 

 
Currently Yahoo has these as the top teams:
 

Bills over Jets (21%)
Falcons over Bears (15%)
Steelers over Browns (32%)
 

I'll again link this website here, and maybe the OP can put it in the first post so that we can have access to it. It helped me a lot last year:

Survival Grid

Buffalo over NYJ seems like the best pick of all of these. Buffalo offers no future value at all for the rest of the season. 

Alternatives I'd also think would be good: Houston and LA Rams


Picks I'd absolutely avoid:
New England: Way too much value later in the year, if you make it far enough even the last 2 weeks would be huge. 
Pittsburgh: Also big value

I will probably go with Bufallo. The Jets very well may be that team that you pick against every week... they may not win a game. I'm deciding between that and Houston, but Jacksonville has burned me in the past picking against them so early. So I will probably go with the Bills. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Currently Yahoo has these as the top teams:
 

Bills over Jets (21%)
Falcons over Bears (15%)
Steelers over Browns (32%)
 

I'll again link this website here, and maybe the OP can put it in the first post so that we can have access to it. It helped me a lot last year:

Survival Grid

Buffalo over NYJ seems like the best pick of all of these. Buffalo offers no future value at all for the rest of the season. 

Alternatives I'd also think would be good: Houston and LA Rams


Picks I'd absolutely avoid:
New England: Way too much value later in the year, if you make it far enough even the last 2 weeks would be huge. 
Pittsburgh: Also big value

I will probably go with Bufallo. The Jets very well may be that team that you pick against every week... they may not win a game. I'm deciding between that and Houston, but Jacksonville has burned me in the past picking against them so early. So I will probably go with the Bills. 
Click to expand...
OK, I'm sold.  

 
Dr. Dan said:
Currently Yahoo has these as the top teams:
 

Bills over Jets (21%)
Falcons over Bears (15%)
Steelers over Browns (32%)
 

I'll again link this website here, and maybe the OP can put it in the first post so that we can have access to it. It helped me a lot last year:

Survival Grid

Buffalo over NYJ seems like the best pick of all of these. Buffalo offers no future value at all for the rest of the season. 

Alternatives I'd also think would be good: Houston and LA Rams


Picks I'd absolutely avoid:
New England: Way too much value later in the year, if you make it far enough even the last 2 weeks would be huge. 
Pittsburgh: Also big value

I will probably go with Bufallo. The Jets very well may be that team that you pick against every week... they may not win a game. I'm deciding between that and Houston, but Jacksonville has burned me in the past picking against them so early. So I will probably go with the Bills. 
Click to expand...
I like your reasoning, and think the Rams are a good second choice.

Very nervous about picking Houston...in the middle of hurricane cleanup, will there be a strong home crowd?  Will distractions be a factor?  High risk this week.

 
Dr. Dan said:
I will probably go with Bufallo. The Jets very well may be that team that you pick against every week... they may not win a game. I'm deciding between that and Houston, but Jacksonville has burned me in the past picking against them so early. So I will probably go with the Bills. 
Click to expand...
Hell, the Bills could very well be that team too...tough week. :\

 
I'm not in any large survivor pools, so I'm just going to go with the best bet of the week and that is NE.  I'm not concerned about making it to Week 17, I'm concerned about making it to Week 2.  One of my cardinal rules of survivor is no division games, so I'm not taking the chance on Buffalo, Pittsburgh or Houston.  The Superbowl hangover is real, so I don't trust Atlanta opening on the road.  The Rams are a bad team, until I find out otherwise, therefore I'm not taking them over Indy.

 
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C-Bound said:
Hell, the Bills could very well be that team too...tough week. :\
Click to expand...
They could..... but I'd like to think they are better than they were last year... They are better than people give them credit for, just terribly bipolar. 

It's worth noting that the Bills lost both games to the Jets last year. Not to muddy the waters more. 

However, over the last 10 match ups (2012-2016), the Bills are 6-4 vs NYJ, 3 of those 4 losses coming on the road. So really they are 4-1 at home vs the Jets over the last 5 years. 

 
tangfoot said:
I'm not in any large survivor pools, so I'm just going to go with the best bet of the week and that is NE.  I'm not concerned about making it to Week 17, I'm concerned about making it to Week 2.  One of my cardinal rules of survivor is no division games, so I'm not taking the chance on Buffalo, Pittsburgh or Houston.  The Superbowl hangover is real, so I don't trust Atlanta opening on the road.  The Rams are a bad team, until I find out otherwise, therefore I'm not taking them over Indy.
Click to expand...
Yeah you talked me away from that ledge several times last year.

The problem with taking NE is that their schedule is good every game practically this season. So it's not really keeping them for week 17, it's using them when everyone else can't at like week 5 or 6 or even 8. Plus I'm not so sure KC is such a huge lock for NE TBH. 

That divisional thing has me re-thinking but I don't know... I won't take Houston over Jacksonville... Jacksonville burned me so bad opening day 2 years ago I still haven't forgotten. 
 

I may still go with Buffalo and cross my fingers. But you have me re-thinking

 
I'm not going to overthink it in Week 1, give me the playoff team on the road vs the team that drafted #1 overall; Pittsburgh over Cleveland.

 
I'm looking for a few good survivor pools to join other than Yahoo.

Recommendations?

Steelers and Bills are the best bets of the week IMO.

 
Going with the Rams.  That defense is going to swallow Tolzien whole.

Bills would be my second choice but even if it's probably better than a 50/50 shot the Jets go 0fer the season divisional games always are scary in Survival pick'em.

 
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Dr. Dan said:
Currently Yahoo has these as the top teams:
 

Bills over Jets (21%)
Falcons over Bears (15%)
Steelers over Browns (32%)
 

I'll again link this website here, and maybe the OP can put it in the first post so that we can have access to it. It helped me a lot last year:

Survival Grid

Buffalo over NYJ seems like the best pick of all of these. Buffalo offers no future value at all for the rest of the season. 
Click to expand...
Bills get to play Jets again.

 
Im going with Houston or Atlanta.  The Jets are awful but I do not trust the Bills.  Pittsburgh is an easy choice but I hope to use them a little later. 

 
massraider said:
Bills get to play Jets again.
Click to expand...
...At NY.... I'd feel less good about picking the Bills at the Jets. 

Bills are only favored by 2 at this point at NY. This week at home they are favored by 9.5

 
DocHolliday said:
Im going with Houston or Atlanta.  The Jets are awful but I do not trust the Bills.  Pittsburgh is an easy choice but I hope to use them a little later. 
Click to expand...
One team I didn't mention is Atlanta. Playing at Chicago with a superbowl hangover... still a lot to like about that matchup. I just don't know what to expect from Chicago this year; a lot of unknowns. I can't bet against Jay Cutler with confidence like I used to be able to do. 

If I chicken out on using the Bills, I would likely go with Atlanta or Rams, probably Atlanta as that is the higher confidence pick for me, but it'd suck to use them early.

First week always sucks... 

 
cdwood said:
I'm not going to overthink it in Week 1, give me the playoff team on the road vs the team that drafted #1 overall; Pittsburgh over Cleveland.
Click to expand...
That's who I'm going with too. Who even knows if Big Ben will even be healthy by the time I would use them again.

 
No Aaron Donald by the sounds of it for this weekend.  Still like the Rams but maybe I'll just take the sure fire bet of the Steelers this week now.

 
tangfoot said:
I'm not in any large survivor pools, so I'm just going to go with the best bet of the week and that is NE.  I'm not concerned about making it to Week 17, I'm concerned about making it to Week 2.  One of my cardinal rules of survivor is no division games, so I'm not taking the chance on Buffalo, Pittsburgh or Houston.  The Superbowl hangover is real, so I don't trust Atlanta opening on the road.  The Rams are a bad team, until I find out otherwise, therefore I'm not taking them over Indy.
Click to expand...
This is the wrong way of approaching Survivor Pools.  You are not trying to get to Week 2 by picking the biggest spread favorite.  You are trying to strategically pick teams who hold the least amount of future value.  Whether you get knocked out Week 2 or Week 10, it doesn't matter.  You are trying to last to the end with the best teams to pick from towards the end of the season.  You don't want to get all the way to Week 17 and have to be picking the 17th-32nd ranked team to win.

I'm going with the Bills this week, they hold NO future value!  Jets are a dumpster fire.

 
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I took the Bills, so you know that they will let me down now in heartbreaking fashion with a loss to the Jets.

 
Fantasy Fool said:
This is the wrong way of approaching Survivor Pools.  You are not trying to get to Week 2 by picking the biggest spread favorite.  You are trying to strategically pick teams who hold the least amount of future value.  Whether you get knocked out Week 2 or Week 10, it doesn't matter.  You are trying to last to the end with the best teams to pick from towards the end of the season.  You don't want to get all the way to Week 17 and have to be picking the 17th-32nd ranked team to win.

I'm going with the Bills this week, they hold NO future value!  Jets are a dumpster fire.
Click to expand...
I love that....and the Bills aren't a dumpster fire too?  

 
Jets beat the bills with the upset. 

That spread is ridiculously high. 

I in no way trust the bills who only have lesean McCoy and are playing a divisional opponent week 1. 

Jets defense is gonna get to the qb   

(Homer bias)

 
TeeDub said:
Jets beat the bills with the upset. 

That spread is ridiculously high. 

I in no way trust the bills who only have lesean McCoy and are playing a divisional opponent week 1. 

Jets defense is gonna get to the qb   

(Homer bias)
Click to expand...
I'll admit, I'm less confident in the Bills without Watkins... that really sucks. But in order to win any games, the Jets have to score points. 

You say the defense is going to get to the QB... the Jets have the last rated defense in the league heading into week 1.

Bills have a top 10 OL, top 3 RB... I'll take that at home over a team that's likely to be rated 32d in every category this season

 
I'm going rams. Won't feel good starting them any other game this year. Wade Phillips at the helm of the defense can beat tolzien.

 
sorry to anyone who went with the "sure bet" with NE... I wasn't so sure kc was such an easy win

 
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Dr. Dan said:
sorry to anyone who went with the "sure bet" with NE... I wasn't so sure kc was such an easy win
Click to expand...
I went back and looked, since Tom Brady became the starter the Pats have lost exactly two Week 1 games, both against their own division. Until last night. 

Good thing I let you guys talk me out of "wasting" them in Week 1. 

 
I have 5 entries in a massive pool, 7000 entries this year.  $100 per.  Real money.

The NFC South, all solid teams (we think) is playing the AFC East.  Any of their home games vs Bills/Jets and maybe Fins are in a separate color on my spreadsheet.  Those games hit all the Survivor guidelines.  

I followed CLE around last year, and won a few I should have lost.  Who was that kicker that missed 2 or three vs. them??  Miami maybe?  Anyway, I won't be doing that this year.  CLE has young talent everywhere, and a bunch of young guys that haven't learned a culture of losing is a dangerous team.  I won't be avoiding them, but I am not going to lock in CLE as a win for many teams.  

I think many of these pools will go the full year.  Some really bad teams out there.  

 
Also, suggestion to @ldizzle: Make this the season long thread.  No need to start a new one every week, and it's helpful (really helpful actually) to read reasoning for picks after the fact.  

 
tangfoot said:
Week 3 looks particularly treacherous at the moment.
Click to expand...
Early Favorites:
GB vs CIN - might be too early to use them, but this is likely a win in my book
PIT @ CHI - which is why I advocate not taking PIT this week, although they have a lot of good games the whole season. If you take away division games, PIT has two weeks that really stand out: Week 3 and Week 5 (vs JAX)
IND vs CLE - Let's see how Tolzien looks these first 2 weeks, but I really do think he will surprise people. I think there may be some people rostering him depending on Luck's long term outlook; he's serviceable. But IND would likely have no future value after this game.

Honorable mentions:

MIA @ NJY - divisional game but the Jets could be who we thought they were
NE vs HOU - can't see HOU's offense keeping up with NE... but then again not many saw KC's offense doing that either. Too early to tell. NE has better value later
 

 
Dr. Dan said:
Early Favorites:
GB vs CIN - might be too early to use them, but this is likely a win in my book
 
Click to expand...
Funny, I was just doing GB's sched, and there's not a ton of looks.  Both CHI games, and CLE on the road, but seems like a good week to use them.  

CIN is a big unknown to me though.  Don't have a handle on them.  

 
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