KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Seems like the tone of the week 1 thread is not a ton of us had success, so let's forget that and get on to week 2. I saw that the contests/pricing were up, so let the discussion begin!
Nice. Looking at the injuries and some of the matchups for the top guys, I am looking long and hard at the cheap Rb options this week for gpps.Gpp team first look
rivers 7000
zeke 8700
bell 9000
allen 7100
parker 6400
martavis 6200
graham 6300
walsh 4600
Ravens 4700
kyle Rudolph stands out at 5500, but I had $$ left over and think the hawks get right at home. martavis and bell may have low ownership this week. bal hosting Cleveland seems like a solid defensive pick.
generally speaking isnt the chargers secondary fairly highly regarded, at least at the corners. I am eyeing Julius Thomas here.Snorkelson said:Parker is going to be chalk play of the week at 6400.
Is this cash or gpp?My first go..
Brady - big rebound vs Saints?
Hunt
Lynch - game flow vs Jets
Cooks - pissed brady + former team
Evans
Kupp
J. Thomas - Cutlers safety net
Walsh
Jags D - I want KC here ideally.
I will look at my notes again, but I think tenn was tough vs rbs at the end of last year and held lynch in check week 1. Will get touches, but looking at that steered me away from him in cash for the week. I think they will do everything in their power to put the ball in Bortles' hands this week.Mine so far
Rivers (getting him on the cheap in a good matchup)
Hunt (can't deny the productivity)
Fournette (decent matchup, script will favor his usage)
Cooks (you know the deal)
K Allen (ton of targets vs a below avg secondary)
Fitz (I know he is old, but I can just see this being a good day vs IND)
Bennett (just have a feeling about him this week, no more)
Tucker (he kicks field goals)
AZ (scored twice last week. Now on the fast turf in dome vs luckless colts)
I checked - they allowed the least pts/g to rbs over the last 6 weeks of the season last year, and were 11th least pts to rb last week. That said, they did allow 100+yds on the ground to Oak, so there is that.Thanks for the info, KP. Will check into that and consider options.
Thank you, sir. As you stated earlier, just a bad matchup week for top RBs.I checked - they allowed the least pts/g to rbs over the last 6 weeks of the season last year, and were 11th least pts to rb last week. That said, they did allow 100+yds on the ground to Oak, so there is that.
For sure a great place to start, but I also think it was kind of odd that that chalky/cash plays were the ones on the winning LUs too. Probably overthinking it a tad, but wondering you take that, but get a little "different with it", or just stick to the same. Ie - I am guessing that Lynch, Gordon, and Hunt will be popular for cash games and pretty chalky. Do we go with them, or someobdy like Fournette or CJ Anderson that are at home, but maybe have a perceived harder matchup and the ownership might be lower. Probably a good time as any to get Bell out there in gpps again, especially with all the dfs boners popping up for the GB/ATL/NE/NO shootout games and people paying for those QBs and WRs.Another thought, not my own original one, mind you - repeating from the re-cap of the Sunday Million: one thing that definitely worked was a home RB that was favored, as evidenced by McCoy & Gurley being owned by the top four, and five of the top ten. Seems like a good area to focus on.
I think those are places to look for gpps for sure, but personally I was gravitating to Lynch/Gordon for cash, maybe Ty Mont in a high scoring game vs. bad rush D.Thank you, sir. As you stated earlier, just a bad matchup week for top RBs.
Plus cutler is good for at least one int.In the spirit of Jax D doing some damage last week, I am staring long and hard at Chargers D. Good CBs, great DEs that could get some sacks, and I think people are leaning towards SD being ahead a bit in this one if Miami D not improving. I think Gordon + Chargers D will be in a couple of my gpps, and maybe cash.
I like it but definitely a gpp lineup.I'm going to have a LOT of Ty Montgomery this week. Seems like a screaming value against Falcons.
Paying down at RB2 with Buck Allen allows for this Julio / Diggs / Patriots superstack:
QB Tom Brady 9200
RB Ty Montgomery 6500
RB Javorius Allen 4900
WR Julio Jones 8800
WR Stefon Diggs 6500
WR Chris Hogan 6200
TE Rob Gronkowski 8100
K Stephen Gostkowski 5100
D Baltimore Ravens 4700
Total: 60000
My biggest concern is that Gronk will not return value at a whopping $8100.
Serious question: Does this look like a GPP or Cash lineup? I'm thinking GPP, because the Pats superstack will either hit big, or go meh and fail to deliver cash value. High variance, right? I'm still a student of the game.
Wouldn't be very big on Bortles; Jax seems like they're going to be a run-first offense and rely on DEF to keep it close. Of those, Brees looks like the best matchup and somebody I will have some exposure to as well this week. Not liking Kizer on the road against the Ravens at all.KarmaPolice said:Piggybacking off reel_smooth's post about looking at home favorite RBs, I have heard a couple times now about targeting home dog QBs. This week I guess that would be guys like Bortles, Siemian, Brees, Kizer?
Was Stafford a home dog last week??
Ditto w/ RW - like this as a GPP play. Not so much for cash w/ Allen, who can and probably will have T. West cut into his workload a bit. But, he still has, IMO, the upside for GPP use.I'm going to have a LOT of Ty Montgomery this week. Seems like a screaming value against Falcons.
Paying down at RB2 with Buck Allen allows for this Julio / Diggs / Patriots superstack:
QB Tom Brady 9200
RB Ty Montgomery 6500
RB Javorius Allen 4900
WR Julio Jones 8800
WR Stefon Diggs 6500
WR Chris Hogan 6200
TE Rob Gronkowski 8100
K Stephen Gostkowski 5100
D Baltimore Ravens 4700
Total: 60000
My biggest concern is that Gronk will not return value at a whopping $8100.
Serious question: Does this look like a GPP or Cash lineup? I'm thinking GPP, because the Pats superstack will either hit big, or go meh and fail to deliver cash value. High variance, right? I'm still a student of the game.
I would imagine, and rightly so. But I will also mix these guys into GPP's as well. I believe you hit the nail on the head in one aspect; we may be over-thinking things a bit. Probably only need one, or at most, two contrarian plays for GPP's along with the chalky guys. And anymore, I think I'm leaning towards WR's for that purpose because there are so many more options, what with the wide-out vs slot guys and finding the match-ups where one DEF isn't as good at covering one vs the other. OTOH, taking, as someone else did, a guy like Javorious 'Buck' Allen in a RB slot, given his upside, isn't a bad choice either.KarmaPolice said:For sure a great place to start, but I also think it was kind of odd that that chalky/cash plays were the ones on the winning LUs too. Probably overthinking it a tad, but wondering you take that, but get a little "different with it", or just stick to the same. Ie - I am guessing that Lynch, Gordon, and Hunt will be popular for cash games and pretty chalky. Do we go with them, or someobdy like Fournette or CJ Anderson that are at home, but maybe have a perceived harder matchup and the ownership might be lower. Probably a good time as any to get Bell out there in gpps again, especially with all the dfs boners popping up for the GB/ATL/NE/NO shootout games and people paying for those QBs and WRs.
I misread the chart and thought Clev was at home, or that was supposed to be somebody else. Might not be the best week to look at it too much, but I think Brees for sure and maybe Siemian could surprise as well.Wouldn't be very big on Bortles; Jax seems like they're going to be a run-first offense and rely on DEF to keep it close. Of those, Brees looks like the best matchup and somebody I will have some exposure to as well this week. Not liking Kizer on the road against the Ravens at all.
I like it, but gpp for sure. Not only do you have the Pats super stack, you have the Allen/Ravens combo.I'm going to have a LOT of Ty Montgomery this week. Seems like a screaming value against Falcons.
Paying down at RB2 with Buck Allen allows for this Julio / Diggs / Patriots superstack:
QB Tom Brady 9200
RB Ty Montgomery 6500
RB Javorius Allen 4900
WR Julio Jones 8800
WR Stefon Diggs 6500
WR Chris Hogan 6200
TE Rob Gronkowski 8100
K Stephen Gostkowski 5100
D Baltimore Ravens 4700
Total: 60000
My biggest concern is that Gronk will not return value at a whopping $8100.
Serious question: Does this look like a GPP or Cash lineup? I'm thinking GPP, because the Pats superstack will either hit big, or go meh and fail to deliver cash value. High variance, right? I'm still a student of the game.
For sure. I think the big winners last week had mostly chalk, but with a guy like Stafford and/or James who was really low owned. I think this week is a little different because there are those 2 games that everybody is drooling over, so people are loading up on Pats, Saints, Packers, Falcons. There are so many ways to be different without getting super crazy:I would imagine, and rightly so. But I will also mix these guys into GPP's as well. I believe you hit the nail on the head in one aspect; we may be over-thinking things a bit. Probably only need one, or at most, two contrarian plays for GPP's along with the chalky guys. And anymore, I think I'm leaning towards WR's for that purpose because there are so many more options, what with the wide-out vs slot guys and finding the match-ups where one DEF isn't as good at covering one vs the other. OTOH, taking, as someone else did, a guy like Javorious 'Buck' Allen in a RB slot, given his upside, isn't a bad choice either.
Not only that, but, Jones is going to get his in what could be a shoot-out and Diggs looked great last week; if the O-line can hold off the Steelers pass rush long enough for Bradford to find him, he could have a huge day.I like it, but gpp for sure. Not only do you have the Pats super stack, you have the Allen/Ravens combo.
I don't disagree with any of that; and I'll throw another stack out there; Brees/Fleener. But there's other, what I would consider to be, 'chalk' options and you hit on them w/ OAK, SEA & I think ARI's passing game should be good, last week not withstanding. I think PITT, KC & BAL offenses should be solid enough as well.For sure. I think the big winners last week had mostly chalk, but with a guy like Stafford and/or James who was really low owned. I think this week is a little different because there are those 2 games that everybody is drooling over, so people are loading up on Pats, Saints, Packers, Falcons. There are so many ways to be different without getting super crazy:
- Fade those 2 games completely to avoid high ownership: Seattle, Oak, Az have just as high of implied totals as the teams in the 2 shoot out games.
- Go RB in the high scoring games: People are stacking up Brady and Cooks, and people are talking about TyMont, but what about Freeman or a low owned NE/NO rb?
- Stack those games, but take different route with your RB besides the chalk - Car RB?, J.Allen?, Rawls? CJ Anderson? I think all would be home faves and much lowever % than Lynch/Gordon/Hunt.
- probably dozens of other ways too
A few of my odd ideas for stacks I had written down: Wilson/Richardson, Carr/Cook, Winston/Brate, Mariota/WR, Ben/Bryant, Brady/White, Rodgers/Ty,
So many ways to attack it, and that's what makes this so fun. (it also gets me sucked in to trying too many LUs too).I don't disagree with any of that; and I'll throw another stack out there; Brees/Fleener. But there's other, what I would consider to be, 'chalk' options and you hit on them w/ OAK, SEA & I think ARI's passing game should be good, last week not withstanding. I think PITT, KC & BAL offenses should be solid enough as well.
I think I like the Ben/Bryant + Thielen or Diggs a little better.I also really like the idea of trying a low $ stack and running it back with somebody from the other team. allows you to maybe get guys like Zeke/Bell, etc.. in a LU too. So maybe:
Ben/Bryant + Thielen or Diggs?
Rodgers/Cobb + Sanu or Gabriel?
Where I start with ideas is looking at this list and then comparing it with looking at defensive pts allowed to positions and DVOA for positions.I think I like the Ben/Bryant + Thielen or Diggs a little better.
Just going over the projected totals and see that there are 14 teams this week w/ projected points of 24 or higher, listed below:
NE/31.5, OAK/28.75, ATL/28.5, SEA/28, KC/26.75, LAR/26, PITT/25.75, ARI/25.75, GB/25.5, CAR/25, TB/25, LAC/24.75 NO/24.5, BAL/24
I would Wilson-Baldwin, but no 49ers to that list.Also not saying that it has to be a game stack or anything, but if I write down a possibility, I also look to see if there is something coming back in a position that could be exploited. If not, so be it. Ie - I like Carr-Cook, but want 0 part of the Jets, or Palmer - Brown, but want nothing to do with Indy.
Yep. I will say I looked into Garcon a little though.I would Wilson-Baldwin, but no 49ers to that list.
I put in a couple Thurs-Monday entries with the intent of completely fading both the extra games. Green was the one I was nervous about going all Hunt on us this week.Curious to see what happens tonight. Thursday games can look rough to begin with, and neither of these teams played real well week 1. I think Cincy bounces back here while Houston tries to figure out their qb situation. Dalton plays better at home, and will likely have low ownership after his stinker last week.