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KarmaPolice

DraftKings Week 2

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Put this on the FD thread, but will post here in case people just look here:

Was bored tonight and like looking at stats.  I was looking to see at RB/WR/TE who had a high # of touches and a high # or % of RZ targets for their team week one.  Again, this is just a start to see who might have the opportunities for cash LUs.  I will fully admit ahead of time I might have missed somebody...

RB ( 20 touches + 4 or more Redzone looks/High % of team's RZ looks) = Fournette, McCoy, Cook, CJ Anderson, Montgomery, Gordon, Stewart. 

WR (8+ targets and more than 1 RZ look):  Cooper, Fitz, Pryor, Thielen, Dez, Decker, Diggs

TE (6 + targers and more than 1 RZ look):  Clay, James, Gronk, Fleener, Miller

 

A couple of gpp options stood out for that NE/NO game too.  White is cheap and had 15 touches/targets with SIX RZ looks, and Kamara is near min priced and had 13 touches/targets and 4 RZ looks in week one.  Also, Cohen is sitll really cheap on both sites if you like his chances this week. 

 

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Quick initial look to put my place holders in the single entry contests.

QB - Wilson as a cheaper option then the guys in the GB/ATL, NE/NO matchups

RB - Gordon vs Dolphins, James White could be a nice value play.

WR - Evans seems like a good value, probably Hurns or Lee as a value saver, Tyreke Hill with Darby out for the Eagles and I think they will focus to stop Hunt.

TE - Clay or Fleener, juts can't see paying up at TE this week.

DST - Bucs vs Bears

Edited by SwampDawg

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Any idea when these articles come out?

 

DraftKings Consensus Rankings - FBG Staff
   A collective summary of our staffers' best value-based selections for DraftKings contests this weekend.Wisdom of the Staff - FBG Staff
   Various staff members share their opinions on select topics.Projecting Ownership - Steve Buzzard
   Estimating the ownership in DraftKings mid-sized GPP contestsStarting Stacks - Scott Bischoff
   A selection of high-upside QB-based stacks for consideration in GPPs this weekend.GPP Domination - Phil Alexander
   Looking for edges in DraftKings TournamentsTips and Picks - John Lee
   Cash game and GPP selections.

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Currently loving on Lynch, Montgomery, Jacquizz and White at RB

Julio and Keenan at WR

Clay at TE again

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I think CJ Anderson at 4700 is a fantastic GPP play. Below 5% ownership, got 20 touches last week, playing at home, and offense should be able to be more efficient against the Cowboys. Also he looked good.

Edited by pbandy1
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3 hours ago, pbandy1 said:

I think CJ Anderson at 4700 is a fantastic GPP play. Below 5% ownership, got 20 touches last week, playing at home, and offense should be able to be more efficient against the Cowboys. Also he looked good.

I was looking at him, and there are also a ton of others that are cheap and were active for their team last week:  J.Allen, CJ Anderson, Stewart, White, Kamara, Hyde, and Cohen are all sub 5K and saw decent touches and RZ usage.  Another one might be Rawls at 4.6 - Lacy looked like crap, and they might give Rawls a shot vs. the horrible SF rush D. 

For DK, I also think Cook, Fournette, Montgomery, Gordon, Hunt, and Lynch are good prices for their usage. 

SO many options...

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4 hours ago, BroadwayG said:

Currently loving on Lynch, Montgomery, Jacquizz and White at RB

Julio and Keenan at WR

Clay at TE again

Forgot about him too.

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5 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I was looking at him, and there are also a ton of others that are cheap and were active for their team last week:  J.Allen, CJ Anderson, Stewart, White, Kamara, Hyde, and Cohen are all sub 5K and saw decent touches and RZ usage.  Another one might be Rawls at 4.6 - Lacy looked like crap, and they might give Rawls a shot vs. the horrible SF rush D. 

For DK, I also think Cook, Fournette, Montgomery, Gordon, Hunt, and Lynch are good prices for their usage. 

SO many options...

I definitely want a part of Seattle in my line-ups but I'm not sure. I may just go back to Graham after last week's dud.

 

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I dunno about James White. Yeah, out of all the backs he played the most snaps, but he's not going to get 100+ in receiving or rushing, so if he doesn't score a touchdown I feel like he won't pan out. I can see both Gillislee and Burkhead getting a touchdown here or something.

However, I do love Alvin Kamara. Look at what Kareem Hunt did to the Pats D, which is now without Hightower. Even though Hunt is the better 3-down back, Kamara's speed and burst are better, you are just hoping he can take one to the house. Pats will take away Michael Thomas, and that leaves Fleener, Ginn, and Coleman. At $3500 my bet is with Kamara, who had more snaps than Ingram and Peterson.

Think Tarik Cohen is going to be a chalk option that is a dud. He's now a guy to game plan for, away game, and ATL always gave up big games to pass-catching backs. TB is much better at defending that.

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5 hours ago, pbandy1 said:

I dunno about James White. Yeah, out of all the backs he played the most snaps, but he's not going to get 100+ in receiving or rushing, so if he doesn't score a touchdown I feel like he won't pan out. I can see both Gillislee and Burkhead getting a touchdown here or something.

However, I do love Alvin Kamara. Look at what Kareem Hunt did to the Pats D, which is now without Hightower. Even though Hunt is the better 3-down back, Kamara's speed and burst are better, you are just hoping he can take one to the house. Pats will take away Michael Thomas, and that leaves Fleener, Ginn, and Coleman. At $3500 my bet is with Kamara, who had more snaps than Ingram and Peterson.

Think Tarik Cohen is going to be a chalk option that is a dud. He's now a guy to game plan for, away game, and ATL always gave up big games to pass-catching backs. TB is much better at defending that.

Oh, I fully admit that NE will kinda troll us with their RBs each week.  I am not sure there is a team that scores as much as them that uses their RBs in the RZ at a higher rate than NE does either.  White had the same # of touches as Gillislee and a massive 6 RZ looks.  (Gillislee had 8).  Just pointing out they had similar chances, and one is 1700 cheaper than the other.   Full disclosure - I am a Pats fan from WI, so I might have a White bias too. 

 

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I probably should just pick one site or the other for my cash LUs.  Get into that debate of doubling up on players, and If I do, does that mean I should stay away for gpps?

Right now for cash on DK, I have:

Rivers - Bell/TyMont/White - Julio/Sanders/Lee - Fleener - Bucs

 

I think the 2 bolded are the only two that are the same on the sites.  I just start to overthink my process - are these the best plays for the site, or the best play that I didn't use elsewhere?

 

 

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15 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I probably should just pick one site or the other for my cash LUs.  Get into that debate of doubling up on players, and If I do, does that mean I should stay away for gpps?

Right now for cash on DK, I have:

Rivers - Bell/TyMont/White - Julio/Sanders/Lee - Fleener - Bucs

 

I think the 2 bolded are the only two that are the same on the sites.  I just start to overthink my process - are these the best plays for the site, or the best play that I didn't use elsewhere?

 

 

I think Julio and Montgomery are the top cash plays on either site and are in all my cash games.

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Who is the pivot for Thielen ($5000) given it looks like Bradford will be limited at best and may not play.

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double ups

rivers gordon lynch julio fitz parker fleener cohen kc ( parker was theilin but changed due to brdford concerns)

$3 GPP

brady montgomery white evans benjamin adams gronk kamara chargers

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My main cash lineup right now

Wilson

Gordon, Lynch

Evans, Hill, Hogan

Fleener

Cohen

Raiders

I'd love to pivot off Cohen, this is already a really chalk lineup and I could see him coming up small this week. But where else to go for $4100 ?  I could switch Raiders to Bucs and free up another $300 which gets you $4400 to replace Cohen. White ? JJ Nelson ?

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My cash lineup on DK

Rodgers

Lynch

Montgomery

Julio

Theilen 

Kupp

Fleener

Cook

Raiders

Edited by chasyone

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On 9/13/2017 at 5:17 PM, pbandy1 said:

I think CJ Anderson at 4700 is a fantastic GPP play. Below 5% ownership, got 20 touches last week, playing at home, and offense should be able to be more efficient against the Cowboys. Also he looked good.

of course the line-ups I had CJA with are garbage. uuugh

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19 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

double ups

rivers gordon lynch julio fitz parker fleener cohen kc ( parker was theilin but changed due to brdford concerns)

$3 GPP

brady montgomery white evans benjamin adams gronk kamara chargers

double up lineup bombed but cashed for $15 in the gpp also cashed a couple .25 gpps. $9.50 in and $16.50 out

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2 hours ago, Raging weasel said:

double up lineup bombed but cashed for $15 in the gpp also cashed a couple .25 gpps. $9.50 in and $16.50 out

Nice!

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Overall, ended up going a little more than 2x.  Much better than last week, and this is with a cash LU that had Goff as my QB.  :bag:

Goff - Gordon/TyMont - Julio/K.Allen/JJNelson/ - Fleener - Hunt - KC  177pts

I tried it for $10 - 6H2Hs, 5 2xs, and 1 588person contest.  Contest hit for $6, so $12 in and $25 out in cash, and had a couple $1gpps cash (yep, my Brady/White/Gronk stack).

 

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On 9/13/2017 at 2:22 PM, Gottabesweet said:

Any idea when these articles come out?

 

DraftKings Consensus Rankings - FBG Staff Staff will upload their rankings throughout the week
Wisdom of the Staff - FBG Staff Should be updated throughout the week; generally complete by Thursday night
Projecting Ownership - Steve Buzzard Two versions...first is released on Wednesday; updated on Saturday
Starting Stacks - Scott Bischoff Should be on the site by Thursday evening
GPP Domination - Phil Alexander By Friday of each week
Tips and Picks - John Lee Saturday afternoon
 

 

See above...in bold:

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2 minutes ago, John Lee said:

See above...in bold:

Thanks John.  I did read yours Saturday.  Do you typically respond on twitter to anything late?

I'm faily new with GPP's - normally build slowly with cash lineups.

That Condia guy placed like 3-4 times in the top 50 of the $20 Mega Millions... Is this normal for him?  150 max entries on that one kinda of ruins it.

Edited by Gottabesweet

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30 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Thanks John.  I did read yours Saturday.  Do you typically respond on twitter to anything late?

I'm faily new with GPP's - normally build slowly with cash lineups.

That Condia guy placed like 3-4 times in the top 50 of the $20 Mega Millions... Is this normal for him?  150 max entries on that one kinda of ruins it.

I don't think that's normal for anybody. 


I listen to a few podcasts during the week and one had an interesting rant about people bringing up the 150max thing.  IF you max enter, that's $3K, so basically you need a top 50 place to break even.  That is really hard out of 260,000 entries - even at max entries you only own .05% of the entries.  Sure, people that are dropping $10K a week probably have better projections, simulators, etc..  but I am still guessing that entering in 150entries/week is still a losing proposition and they are probably doing that to supplement stuff like the $333 entry gpp and taking a shot at the 1M.  Would be interested in seeing a study about that, how many players enter the max each week, and how successful they are when doing that. 

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8 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I don't think that's normal for anybody. 


I listen to a few podcasts during the week and one had an interesting rant about people bringing up the 150max thing.  IF you max enter, that's $3K, so basically you need a top 50 place to break even.  That is really hard out of 260,000 entries - even at max entries you only own .05% of the entries.  Sure, people that are dropping $10K a week probably have better projections, simulators, etc..  but I am still guessing that entering in 150entries/week is still a losing proposition and they are probably doing that to supplement stuff like the $333 entry gpp and taking a shot at the 1M.  Would be interested in seeing a study about that, how many players enter the max each week, and how successful they are when doing that. 

Whatever that Condia dude is doing he does it well.  Just scares off part time players.  I rarely join the $20 GPP but had a free ticket.  Ended up winning $40

I generally due single entry double up's or max 3... and then just leagues with friends... slowly winning $20-50 a week.  I'd like to play that $20 gpp weekly but just curious about it is all.

I'm seeing less and less big double up's or single entry contests.

I need to find a strategy and stick to it.

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3 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

Whatever that Condia dude is doing he does it well.  Just scares off part time players.  I rarely join the $20 GPP but had a free ticket.  Ended up winning $40

I generally due single entry double up's or max 3... and then just leagues with friends... slowly winning $20-50 a week.  I'd like to play that $20 gpp weekly but just curious about it is all.

I'm seeing less and less big double up's or single entry contests.

I need to find a strategy and stick to it.

What do you usually spend on gpps? 

I think the podcasts I listen to suggest to throw your gpp $ into as many SE and 3max ones that you can.  So if you have $30 for gpps on the weekend,  Maybe 4 $1 entries in the SE and 3max, a $3 SE, 3 $3 3 max, and a $5SE,  then the rest in the $3 play action?    Also keep in mind that DK capped the gpps under $5 entries at 20 entries instead of the 150 it used to be, so if you hate the idea of the mass entry guys, you could put in a bunch of entries in the $3 play action too. 

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Just now, KarmaPolice said:

What do you usually spend on gpps? 

I think the podcasts I listen to suggest to throw your gpp $ into as many SE and 3max ones that you can.  So if you have $30 for gpps on the weekend,  Maybe 4 $1 entries in the SE and 3max, a $3 SE, 3 $3 3 max, and a $5SE,  then the rest in the $3 play action?    Also keep in mind that DK capped the gpps under $5 entries at 20 entries instead of the 150 it used to be, so if you hate the idea of the mass entry guys, you could put in a bunch of entries in the $3 play action too. 

That seems fair.  I generally play about $30-50 a week...  80% of that in double up's or league's vs. buddies (non sharks)

Then of that 20% remaining 2-3 GPP games... 2 lineups.

I didn't notice many single entry games last week.

The $20 GPP is now 4.5m last week it was 5.5m

 

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New to DK but it seems they only have 1 $1 and 1 $3 SE gpp per slate. May have more at higher dollar amounts but I stay clear of the shark infested waters.

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20 minutes ago, Raging weasel said:

New to DK but it seems they only have 1 $1 and 1 $3 SE gpp per slate. May have more at higher dollar amounts but I stay clear of the shark infested waters.

But remember, along with the 20max on the lower stakes it limits the uber elite sharks too.  I think anybody who has played over $1M on DK is shut out of those gpps as well (anything under a $5 entry). 

They aren't the best at having a lot of SE, but the $3 20max on DK would be a lot safer as far as less sharks than the equivalent on FD.  They did have a $1 3max last week, and I thought I have seen a $3 one as well, but I didn't see them this morning when I looked. 

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Small loss for the week here. Had all the right pieces, none of them were all put together on the same team.

I'm milking my casual status as long as I can. Should have a few more weeks of maxing the big payout casual GPPs with a few single entries tossed in.

Thankfully took down the $9 single entry casual PGA this weekend for $150, which will feed my NFL for a couple of weeks.

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

But remember, along with the 20max on the lower stakes it limits the uber elite sharks too.  I think anybody who has played over $1M on DK is shut out of those gpps as well (anything under a $5 entry). 

They aren't the best at having a lot of SE, but the $3 20max on DK would be a lot safer as far as less sharks than the equivalent on FD.  They did have a $1 3max last week, and I thought I have seen a $3 one as well, but I didn't see them this morning when I looked. 

Yep, I do play the $3 3 max, that's where I won my $15. Trying to avoid depositing on both sites so only playing about $10 a week each site.

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Hi all, just for a little bit of clarification on the limits of those who have played over $1M on DK- they are shut out of contests that have less than a $5 entry fee AND the total prize pool is less than $25,000. The contest has to meet both of those criteria. So for example CONDIA was able to play in the $3 entry $1.6M Play-Action contest (and he took third place). I just wanted to throw that out there since originally I thought only one of the criteria (<$5 entry or <$25K prize pool) had to be met, but it is both.

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1 hour ago, marytechjane said:

Hi all, just for a little bit of clarification on the limits of those who have played over $1M on DK- they are shut out of contests that have less than a $5 entry fee AND the total prize pool is less than $25,000. The contest has to meet both of those criteria. So for example CONDIA was able to play in the $3 entry $1.6M Play-Action contest (and he took third place). I just wanted to throw that out there since originally I thought only one of the criteria (<$5 entry or <$25K prize pool) had to be met, but it is both.

Thanks for the clarification. 

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