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Gottabesweet

Buy Low/ Sell High Week 6 - Offers you sent/rec'd - Discussion

Question

Buy/Low/Hold thread mixed with offers your receive during the week.  Help gauge what owners are low and if you should pounce.

Always nice to know what's being offered.  This thread has helped receive offers and send offers based on value discussed within team construct.

 

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Gurley looks like a prime sell-high after last night. 

His schedule gets pretty stiff after this week & I'd say his max value is now. 

Not saying he's gonna fall off a cliff, but you could command a really nice package for Gurley right meow. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Gurley looks like a prime sell-high after last night. 

His schedule gets pretty stiff after this week & I'd say his max value is now. 

Not saying he's gonna fall off a cliff, but you could command a really nice package for Gurley right meow. 

Might be able package Watkins next week if Fitzgerald has a good game! fingers crossed.

Or could sell high on Hyde... good start.

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4 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Might be able package Watkins next week if Fitzgerald has a good game! fingers crossed.

Or could sell high on Hyde... good start.

Watkins is tricky because of the concussion and the sentiment that he's a bust. With Watkins i think it's better to hold - Rams figure to be in some shootouts and that'll raise his value, but it'll take a few games for that. Meanwhile you'll get to enjoy his production. 

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Watkins is tricky because of the concussion and the sentiment that he's a bust. With Watkins i think it's better to hold - Rams figure to be in some shootouts and that'll raise his value, but it'll take a few games for that. Meanwhile you'll get to enjoy his production. 

Watkins went between WR27-30 in all of my drafts - mid-range WR3 levels. On the heels of his one good game out of three ending in a concussion, I'd be surprised if anyone was paying more than low-end WR2 prices for him. That's not exactly "selling high" on a guy with his talent in a potential breakout year from Goff.

Sure, if someone will give you DT or Keenan for him, go for it, but otherwise I'd hold on and enjoy the ride.

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9 minutes ago, Mr. Irrelevant said:

Watkins went between WR27-30 in all of my drafts - mid-range WR3 levels. On the heels of his one good game out of three ending in a concussion, I'd be surprised if anyone was paying more than low-end WR2 prices for him. That's not exactly "selling high" on a guy with his talent in a potential breakout year from Goff.

Sure, if someone will give you DT or Keenan for him, go for it, but otherwise I'd hold on and enjoy the ride.

Yep - that's exactly my point. If he has 2-3 more ~100/1 games, then he's a good sell high. 

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I'm thinking that Howard will have a break out game this week or next, maybe more likely next the Bears O line is getting healthy including Jake Long......

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2 hours ago, TZMarkie said:

 

 If you are loaded at RB, then this is almost a FREE UPGRADE at flex.

AJ Green has come out and said they need to get him the ball more, and Dalton has always been the same QB. He will force feed Green, its just a matter of when. Sanders will have some good weeks here and there, but his ceiling is nowhere near as high as AJ Green.

If for some reason you don't have much RB depth (and you should have depth, since you are reading and posting on these boards) then if you feel like you may need Cohen at some point, it muddies it a little.

But if you have depth, I make this trade as soon as possible, and act quickly before the other owner changes his mind.

 People here forget AJ Green had over 1,000 receiving yards his first 6 seasons, and last year he had over 950 yards IN ONLY 9 GAMES

So far, Green has had 10 targets and 8 targets in weeks 1 and 2 respectively.

Point is, Dalton may be having a bit of trouble currently, but he has always had trouble here and there.  AJ Green will definitely be targeted.

 There might be a few odd scenarios I would rather have both Cohen/Sanders, but its few and far between and I would have to see your roster to possibly go that route.

 

 TZM

I was thinking it was pretty good also.  I did pay $26 in FAAB to get Cohen though but it could be a good investment if it gets me AJG.  My starting RBs are Zeke and Fournette with Ingam, T West and Charles on the bench.

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27 minutes ago, JIMGET said:

I'm thinking that Howard will have a break out game this week or next, maybe more likely next the Bears O line is getting healthy including Jake Long......

Kyle Long.  You've got the wrong brother there.

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3 minutes ago, JIMGET said:

Howie Long?

Long Duck Dong

 

Curious what everyone thinks Fitzgerald's and Derrick Henry's values are.  I have a feeling This is going to be Henry's year and hoping to turn Fitz for him.

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On 9/22/2017 at 10:48 AM, JIMGET said:

I'm thinking that Howard will have a break out game this week or next, maybe more likely next the Bears O line is getting healthy including Jake Long......

THIS!!!:thumbup:

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So glad I turned down the lowball offers for AJ Green & Baldwin.

hope it keeps up! 

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Another week.

Getting really pissed that I bought into the second round hype. FBG staffers loved Cooper.

Rivers laid a stinker too.

Could sell high on Hyde/Watkins this week.  Hoping Zeke has a nice game to sell.

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I'd like to sell my Murray/Henry combo.  With Hunt and Cook as my starters I don't have much need for them.  I don't think I can sell them all that high though.

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Buy Low - Mixon, His ticker is definitely moving up after this week. Opportunity to buy low past week 4 will be near impossible. Joe Mixon thread has a great analysis of the situation. Basically, we believe it will only get better because he has yet to fully break out. Get him now at the fraction of his real price. 

Holding High w/ Hyde - I think you'll see a lot of sells for Hyde, but his high is pretty stable to me and I don't see how his situation threatens to wane(besides a threat of injury). Not sure who you could target. I'll let the offers come to me though.

 

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Anyone feeling a Smokin Jay Cutler buy-low? 

Move got a chance to move White for Cutler in a league where I've got solid RB depth & my QBs are Semien & Bradford.

not convinced Cutler is better than Semien. 

Hmmm...

seems like cutler has a pretty solid floor with obvious upside. 

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20 hours ago, Hartliner said:

Buy Low - Mixon, His ticker is definitely moving up after this week. Opportunity to buy low past week 4 will be near impossible. Joe Mixon thread has a great analysis of the situation. Basically, we believe it will only get better because he has yet to fully break out. Get him now at the fraction of his real price. 

Holding High w/ Hyde - I think you'll see a lot of sells for Hyde, but his high is pretty stable to me and I don't see how his situation threatens to wane(besides a threat of injury). Not sure who you could target. I'll let the offers come to me though.

 

I've thought about moving Hyde for a wr. But receivers cost so damn much in that league (start 3-5 wr with 1-2 rb) that a week ago I couldn't get k Benjamin for Hyde without throwing in one of the best linebackers in dynasty (ogletree). But as I've been starting two of Wallace, k wright and Decker I could really stand to improve my wr3 and 4. 

I'd think Watkins would be a fair swap in most leagues. 

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5 minutes ago, Fever in the Funkhouse said:

After the week 4 matchup vs. Denver, lynch may be a good buy low candidate. He looks healthy and seems to have his power and intensity, and the offense will be better you'd think. 

The other RB's have been running well too though?  You think Lynch will ever get the touches? 20+

 

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5 hours ago, -OZ- said:

I've thought about moving Hyde for a wr. But receivers cost so damn much in that league (start 3-5 wr with 1-2 rb) that a week ago I couldn't get k Benjamin for Hyde without throwing in one of the best linebackers in dynasty (ogletree). But as I've been starting two of Wallace, k wright and Decker I could really stand to improve my wr3 and 4. 

I'd think Watkins would be a fair swap in most leagues. 

Was shopping Hyde this week, don't know if anyone will bite though...

 

Only offer I got after I updated my block was   Crowell and Big Ben for Rivers and Zeke lol.

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On 9/25/2017 at 8:44 AM, Hartliner said:

Buy Low - Mixon, His ticker is definitely moving up after this week. Opportunity to buy low past week 4 will be near impossible. Joe Mixon thread has a great analysis of the situation. Basically, we believe it will only get better because he has yet to fully break out. Get him now at the fraction of his real price. 

Hasn't this passed? I really wanted to get him last week when I heard Lazor was taking over, no doing. I feel like taking another running shot but it's pretty clear the cat is out the bag, I'm not sure what to give except a starter at this point.

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1 hour ago, Gottabesweet said:

The other RB's have been running well too though?  You think Lynch will ever get the touches? 20+

 

You're right, so it's more about appropriately setting expectations.  He's maybe an RB2 with good chances for a TD weekly. Only two rbs have 60 carries through three games. I don't know that we can expect many rbs with 20+ carry potential on the trading block. And yes, the backups in OAK are a threat, but I still think lynch is the 60 in the 60/40 split

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Just now, Fever in the Funkhouse said:

You're right, so it's more about appropriately setting expectations.  He's maybe an RB2 with good chances for a TD weekly. Only two rbs have 60 carries through three games. I don't know that we can expect many rbs with 20+ carry potential on the trading block. And yes, the backups in OAK are a threat, but I still think lynch is the 60 in the 60/40 split

I guess, I meant touches.  I have a hard time deciding if I should trade for him.  I'm 1-2 and the 2nd lowest scoring team in the league.  PPR, 6 per TDs.  The owner with Jordy Nelson and Lynch has been sniffing around Zeke.  If I trade Zeke it would leave me Hyde/Lynch/D. Henry I only have to start 1 a week.

We start QB, RB, WR, TE, F, F, K, D (With only 4 bench spots)

Rivers, Zeke, OBJ, Cooper, Ertz and then Fitz/Hyde has been my starting lineup.   (Bench Watkins, Tyrell Williams, D. Henry)

Rivers and Cooper cost me a win last week but Hyde and OBJ had great games. 

I think I need to find a way to upgrade QB. 

Luck is a free agent who I can add for Tyrell Williams.

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Devante Parker is overvalued right now. The time to get him was last week, before the Jets game.

 

 

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1 hour ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Hasn't this passed? I really wanted to get him last week when I heard Lazor was taking over, no doing. I feel like taking another running shot but it's pretty clear the cat is out the bag, I'm not sure what to give except a starter at this point.

Better to get Mixon now before his first 100 yards and TD. 

Talk up how ####ty the Bengals' O-line is. It's true, after all. But if/when Dalton settles in and starts chucking bombs to Green and Ross, the O-line will be less pressured by 6 man fronts and Mixon's talent will make the most of it. 

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If you have some RB depth and looking to upgrade your RB3/potential flex play- Crowell may be a good buy low candidate. He's had 3 TDs stolen from him by Kizer/Johnson. Had he had those scores he'd be RB17 in PPR. He's faced 3 very difficult running defenses to start the season. I think if you can get him for the right price you could do a lot worse. Of course, this could be the start of his demise and he could flop- which is why I said you should get him as a RB3/potential flex. Or if you're desperate for a RB2. I think Crowell still finishes in the top 24... Currently RB 40 something in PPR

I look at this as the perfect buy low candidate. If he gets any lower he will be potential WW material. If you think he will finish higher than RB 40, you could get a bargain.

Edited by Dr. Dan
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On 9/22/2017 at 10:48 AM, JIMGET said:

I'm thinking that Howard will have a break out game this week or next, maybe more likely next the Bears O line is getting healthy including Jake Long......

Wish I would have seen this before and taken it to heart.  I had Howard on my bench this week along with Diggs.  :wall:

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28 minutes ago, Mozeta said:

Wish I would have seen this before and taken it to heart.  I had Howard on my bench this week along with Diggs.  :wall:

I did too. Fortunately I would have lost any way as he had Gurley, Hunt, Brown, etc etc

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50 minutes ago, Mozeta said:

Wish I would have seen this before and taken it to heart.  I had Howard on my bench this week along with Diggs.  :wall:

At least you didn't trade both of them like I did :rant:

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I can't figure out the Gurley situation. Mentioned it in a few other trade focused threads but the FF community seems genuinely split on this front. Guy obviously is back in good form and the offense is on the rise. Also at this point it seems like he almost has a Bell-esque PPR floor. Then again how much faith do we want to place in this team and the rest of their schedule moving forward? 

Could be that Gurley ends up a top 3 back ROS, or this could be the peak value and us Gurley owners will wish we could have sold for a Bell or similar elite talent in hindsight. Honestly could go 50-50 either way. Thoughts? 

 

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Might sell Zeke, Rivers for Brees, K. Allen but haven't decided.

Rivers is killing me. 

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11 minutes ago, timbrah_ho said:

I can't figure out the Gurley situation. Mentioned it in a few other trade focused threads but the FF community seems genuinely split on this front. Guy obviously is back in good form and the offense is on the rise. Also at this point it seems like he almost has a Bell-esque PPR floor. Then again how much faith do we want to place in this team and the rest of their schedule moving forward? 

Could be that Gurley ends up a top 3 back ROS, or this could be the peak value and us Gurley owners will wish we could have sold for a Bell or similar elite talent in hindsight. Honestly could go 50-50 either way. Thoughts? 

 

 He's a sell high candidate for a couple of reasons IMO.  Not really to do with his ability in a vacuum. 

1. His schedule gets pretty brutal for a stretch. Hard to sustain his numbers if the defenses he faces get much much harder. This is debatable, but I think it's the main reason folks say to sell high. 

2. Goff has undoubtedly taken a step forward this year. But he isn't throwing a lot. He's had a couple of games now where statistically it seems like he's due for a drop-off. If Goff drops off, the offense might drop off with him. 

Not saying Gurley won't be a good FFB asset all year - I suspect he will. But if you're looking to build your roster / address weaknesses elsewhere in a deal, his early returns may well command more for him than the return of holding.

 

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 He's a sell high candidate for a couple of reasons IMO.  Not really to do with his ability in a vacuum. 

1. His schedule gets pretty brutal for a stretch. Hard to sustain his numbers if the defenses he faces get much much harder. This is debatable, but I think it's the main reason folks say to sell high. 

2. Goff has undoubtedly taken a step forward this year. But he isn't throwing a lot. He's had a couple of games now where statistically it seems like he's due for a drop-off. If Goff drops off, the offense might drop off with him. 

Not saying Gurley won't be a good FFB asset all year - I suspect he will. But if you're looking to build your roster / address weaknesses elsewhere in a deal, his early returns may well command more for him than the return of holding.

 

Top 200 forward has him right up there in PPR -  6th overall player projected 205.5 more PPR points ROS.

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What is Doug Martin's value? Doesn't look like Quizz is taking his job, Rodgers had one ok game and one crapfest in a tough matchup.

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I normally love this list but this annoys me,  Sammy Watkins has a potential breakout week and goes from WR36 to WR39 in PPR. Rest of season. Top 200 forward.

Edited by Gottabesweet
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35 minutes ago, timbrah_ho said:

I can't figure out the Gurley situation. Mentioned it in a few other trade focused threads but the FF community seems genuinely split on this front. Guy obviously is back in good form and the offense is on the rise. Also at this point it seems like he almost has a Bell-esque PPR floor. Then again how much faith do we want to place in this team and the rest of their schedule moving forward? 

Could be that Gurley ends up a top 3 back ROS, or this could be the peak value and us Gurley owners will wish we could have sold for a Bell or similar elite talent in hindsight. Honestly could go 50-50 either way. Thoughts? 

 

I think he delivers top 5 RB numbers ROS based on volume alone.  The line is still garbage and he is averaging less than 4 ypc.  But he touches it a ton.  

Safe RB1 imo.  

I would still put him behind Hunt and Bell but no one else. 

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25 minutes ago, Gottabesweet said:

Top 200 forward has him right up there in PPR -  6th overall player projected 205.5 more PPR points ROS.

Yeah - he's both a sell high & buy low candidate if that makes sense. 

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33 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 He's a sell high candidate for a couple of reasons IMO.  Not really to do with his ability in a vacuum. 

1. His schedule gets pretty brutal for a stretch. Hard to sustain his numbers if the defenses he faces get much much harder. This is debatable, but I think it's the main reason folks say to sell high. 

 

 

This is the top reason I wouldn't trade for Gurley. His YPC has been low so far. He has been succeeding because of his volume. And now his schedule gets brutal. He has by far the worst ROS schedule of any RB. 

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50 minutes ago, timbrah_ho said:

I can't figure out the Gurley situation. Mentioned it in a few other trade focused threads but the FF community seems genuinely split on this front. Guy obviously is back in good form and the offense is on the rise. Also at this point it seems like he almost has a Bell-esque PPR floor. Then again how much faith do we want to place in this team and the rest of their schedule moving forward? 

Could be that Gurley ends up a top 3 back ROS, or this could be the peak value and us Gurley owners will wish we could have sold for a Bell or similar elite talent in hindsight. Honestly could go 50-50 either way. Thoughts? 

 

I suspect all the folks (like me) that owned Gurley last year would give you the same answer.

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19 minutes ago, skinsrule05 said:

This is the top reason I wouldn't trade for Gurley. His YPC has been low so far. He has been succeeding because of his volume. And now his schedule gets brutal. He has by far the worst ROS schedule of any RB. 

And that perception is what might make him a good buy-low. 

Owners reading that everywhere could be a little spooked. 

All depends on how much you believe Gurley can overcome on that rough stretch. 

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3 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

I guess, I meant touches.  I have a hard time deciding if I should trade for him.  I'm 1-2 and the 2nd lowest scoring team in the league.  PPR, 6 per TDs.  The owner with Jordy Nelson and Lynch has been sniffing around Zeke.  If I trade Zeke it would leave me Hyde/Lynch/D. Henry I only have to start 1 a week.

We start QB, RB, WR, TE, F, F, K, D (With only 4 bench spots)

Rivers, Zeke, OBJ, Cooper, Ertz and then Fitz/Hyde has been my starting lineup.   (Bench Watkins, Tyrell Williams, D. Henry)

Rivers and Cooper cost me a win last week but Hyde and OBJ had great games. 

I think I need to find a way to upgrade QB. 

Luck is a free agent who I can add for Tyrell Williams.

Isn't there a forum here specifically for advice?

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4 hours ago, Gottabesweet said:

I normally love this list but this annoys me,  Sammy Watkins has a potential breakout week and goes from WR36 to WR39 in PPR. Rest of season. Top 200 forward.

The top 200 forward has been my pet peeve with my Football Guys subscription. For years now it really does not seem to make sense for true value. I use it to highlight free agents available in my league but the rankings just don't seem to make sense in general. Kinda disappointing since it looks like Henry is the one doing the rankings and I usually like his rankings???

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Buy Low for week 4

Dez Bryant - He has had 3 tough matchups and maybe his owner thinks he is over hill. I really like Dak and Dez for the rest of the year.

Joe Mixon - Although it might be too late.

Demaryius Thomas - No reason just feels like he is going to start getting his

Isaiah Crowell - Same as Dez, I think he gets is going soon

 

Sell high

Brandin Cooks - I don't like him and the targets aren't there, he might actually be a good sell high in a couple weeks. I think he will have another good game soon.

Russell Wilson - A lot of garbage time there and I don't expect the Seahawks to get blown out a lot, I do expect their line to continue to suck

 

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Gut says:

Buy Low: Andy Dalton (it can only get better)

Sell High: CJ Anderson (just concerned that in order to make sure Cj doesn't get hurt, carries will be split more between CJ, Charles, and now Booker)

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On 9/22/2017 at 7:33 AM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Gurley looks like a prime sell-high after last night. 

His schedule gets pretty stiff after this week & I'd say his max value is now. 

Not saying he's gonna fall off a cliff, but you could command a really nice package for Gurley right meow. 

Did you just say meow?

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sell high 

Crowell - PFF had an article about him last week, saying that he just doesn't look like his 2016 self. he's a lesser back who is only good for approx 15-40 every game..the article also went on to say that Duke Johnson is the real deal and that we should all get him now ( last week) before it's too late.seems like they hit the nail on the head. I'd be looking to sell Crowell while people still think he's a quasi bellcow RB for the Browns..the truth is he's has as good a shot as Lamar Miller does at staying the #1 back in the offenses in which they play. buy DJ and D. Foreman

Ty Montgomery - the injury is coming, he's already getting nicked up..

dare I say it, but it might be time to sell Zeke..he's averaging a paltry 3.5 ypc, hasn't looked all that good so far, and has a pending hearing on the horizon.he might miss time he might not, but if all you're going to get out of him is 3.5 yards per carry, I think you trade him and get a ton in return - while you still can. 

Ajayi - but wait for him to obliterate the Saints this weekend, first..mysteriously popping up on the injury report with a knee last week, and then sucking the life out of fantasy teams by his lack of production Vs. Jets..he might have one of those patented 200 yards games against N.O. and that's when you sell sell sell..

Ameer Abdullah 

buy

Kirk Cousins - he's back.he shredded that Oak defense like a surgeon. he's started off slowly in each of the past few years, and has managed to get better with time. he's looking every bit as good as he did last season

Chris Thompson - I know people think he can't possibly continue this incredible streak of maximizing his touches like that, but I think it continues. as they lean on him more a curious thing is happening - they're winning.in a make or break year for Gruden, he's going to lean on his best player - CT..

Redskins' defense looks impressive, time to buy or pluck off waiver.

S. Shepherd.

Teddy Bridgewater

Vernon Davis - if Reed's deal is season ending , Davis is the guy to own..

M Sanu - keeps chugging along , the Ole Standby - solid 9-10 ppg , every game.

Duke Johnson

Donta Foreman

 

 

 

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