Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Fortune favors the bold, ladies and gents. And in FF, that often means getting the jump now on an ascendant player before others catch wind.
In the NFL, there is often a lot of variance in Week 1 as teams are still gelling and knocking off preseason rust for when the games really matter. As a result, sometimes we see unexpected performances that no one could see coming. I am not talking about guys like Kareem Hunt or Gillislee or even guys like Kupp or Cohen. These are guys who we had an inkling, based on situation, talent, or past performance (preseason or last season) that showed glimmers that these players are for real.
No, let's dig deeper than that. I am talking about guys who are likely on waivers, had solid week one performances, followed up by solid week two performances -- these are no longer outliers but show the potential of all-season value. Guys you can get on the cheap now and are likely going to continue to pay out. Guys who you can likely snap up before your other league members get wise.
Here are some options in my mind:
QB
Alex Smith, KC
Trevor Siemian, DEN
Carson Wentz, PHI
All three of these guys, if drafted at all, are likely 2nd QBs, or potentially on the wire. All three of these guys were the top 5 QBs by fantasy points (standard) two weeks running. They are not matchup-proof, but have shown me enough that they have the supporting cast on their team on both sides of the ball to get their offenses in good field positions, and move the chains with a fair number of weapons. I've seen enough to think that these trends continue, and as such, are all in my mind low end QB1s you can get for bargain basement prices right now.
RB
Jalen Richard, OAK
Theo Riddick, DET
Would have been easy for me to call out guys like Jonathan Stewart or Javorius Allen or James White or Chris Carson -- all of whom I like and think we'll see continued performance from, but guys that may be drafted or were immediate waiver targets after Week 1. Digging deeper, I like these backs given what I've seen for their usage and what they bring to the table.
Richard will remain a committee back with Washington, both backing up Lynch. But Oakland looks to be using Lynch in all the right ways -- limiting touches to keep him fresh so he can continue to be the hammer for this offense. But while Richard and Washington have similar skill sets, Richard is simply more electric, with a much better burst and crazy acceleration, and is all-rounded out of the backfield as a receiver or between the tackles. While I think Richard will still timeshare with Washington as the RB2a, he simply does a lot more with his touches than Washington. For a team looking for RB depth and a good situational flex player, Richard is an excellent choice.
Theo Riddick also has a capped ceiling, given Abdullah and the propensity for the Lions to bring in guys like Zenner and Dwayne Washington at the stripe. But DET is also a team that spreads the ball around, and they also employ Riddick heavily in the passing game. And they will likely continue to do so. For PPR, that kind of floor is appealing. Abdullah will get more snaps, but Riddick won't be too far behind in terms of his usage on the field. Again, I think there is value here for the prices you're looking at for acquisition.
WR
Jermaine Kearse, NYJ
Jeremy Maclin, BAL
It would be too easy for me to say J.J. Nelson -- I am loving the consistency he is bringing to the table and I think that continues, even when Brown returns to form. But he's more of a waiver target right now -- not exactly flying below radar.
Yes, an offensive player on the Jets. While Robby Anderson seems to have been the flavor of the month this year, Kearse is a guy who has outsnapped and outplayed Anderson. Kearse was pretty solid in SEA, and brings a good skill set to a team that really needs him. The Jets will continue to struggle, and Kearse isn't matchup-proof, but a dependable WR who is getting the targets and opportunity on a play-behind team, who is likely hanging on the wire for a team struggling with WRs? Yes please.
I know, Maclin was likely drafted in deeper leagues, but there is a good deal of deserved wariness around him, both in terms of his history and being on the Ravens, who seem to just do enough offensively to have their D lock down the game. I think that's something to capitalize on, as we've seen a resurgence of Maclin, who is a TOp 10 receiver through two weeks, and while I don't think he ends up there, I've seen enough to convince me the trend of him delivering value continues consistently. Because Maclin carries a bit of a sour name brand given his past, he may be dropped or available on the wire or through a savvy package trade that pays off year-long.
So who you got? Who do you think is flying below the radar and, based on consistent value through these past few weeks, has established a trend that will continue?
In the NFL, there is often a lot of variance in Week 1 as teams are still gelling and knocking off preseason rust for when the games really matter. As a result, sometimes we see unexpected performances that no one could see coming. I am not talking about guys like Kareem Hunt or Gillislee or even guys like Kupp or Cohen. These are guys who we had an inkling, based on situation, talent, or past performance (preseason or last season) that showed glimmers that these players are for real.
No, let's dig deeper than that. I am talking about guys who are likely on waivers, had solid week one performances, followed up by solid week two performances -- these are no longer outliers but show the potential of all-season value. Guys you can get on the cheap now and are likely going to continue to pay out. Guys who you can likely snap up before your other league members get wise.
Here are some options in my mind:
QB
Alex Smith, KC
Trevor Siemian, DEN
Carson Wentz, PHI
All three of these guys, if drafted at all, are likely 2nd QBs, or potentially on the wire. All three of these guys were the top 5 QBs by fantasy points (standard) two weeks running. They are not matchup-proof, but have shown me enough that they have the supporting cast on their team on both sides of the ball to get their offenses in good field positions, and move the chains with a fair number of weapons. I've seen enough to think that these trends continue, and as such, are all in my mind low end QB1s you can get for bargain basement prices right now.
RB
Jalen Richard, OAK
Theo Riddick, DET
Would have been easy for me to call out guys like Jonathan Stewart or Javorius Allen or James White or Chris Carson -- all of whom I like and think we'll see continued performance from, but guys that may be drafted or were immediate waiver targets after Week 1. Digging deeper, I like these backs given what I've seen for their usage and what they bring to the table.
Richard will remain a committee back with Washington, both backing up Lynch. But Oakland looks to be using Lynch in all the right ways -- limiting touches to keep him fresh so he can continue to be the hammer for this offense. But while Richard and Washington have similar skill sets, Richard is simply more electric, with a much better burst and crazy acceleration, and is all-rounded out of the backfield as a receiver or between the tackles. While I think Richard will still timeshare with Washington as the RB2a, he simply does a lot more with his touches than Washington. For a team looking for RB depth and a good situational flex player, Richard is an excellent choice.
Theo Riddick also has a capped ceiling, given Abdullah and the propensity for the Lions to bring in guys like Zenner and Dwayne Washington at the stripe. But DET is also a team that spreads the ball around, and they also employ Riddick heavily in the passing game. And they will likely continue to do so. For PPR, that kind of floor is appealing. Abdullah will get more snaps, but Riddick won't be too far behind in terms of his usage on the field. Again, I think there is value here for the prices you're looking at for acquisition.
WR
Jermaine Kearse, NYJ
Jeremy Maclin, BAL
It would be too easy for me to say J.J. Nelson -- I am loving the consistency he is bringing to the table and I think that continues, even when Brown returns to form. But he's more of a waiver target right now -- not exactly flying below radar.
Yes, an offensive player on the Jets. While Robby Anderson seems to have been the flavor of the month this year, Kearse is a guy who has outsnapped and outplayed Anderson. Kearse was pretty solid in SEA, and brings a good skill set to a team that really needs him. The Jets will continue to struggle, and Kearse isn't matchup-proof, but a dependable WR who is getting the targets and opportunity on a play-behind team, who is likely hanging on the wire for a team struggling with WRs? Yes please.
I know, Maclin was likely drafted in deeper leagues, but there is a good deal of deserved wariness around him, both in terms of his history and being on the Ravens, who seem to just do enough offensively to have their D lock down the game. I think that's something to capitalize on, as we've seen a resurgence of Maclin, who is a TOp 10 receiver through two weeks, and while I don't think he ends up there, I've seen enough to convince me the trend of him delivering value continues consistently. Because Maclin carries a bit of a sour name brand given his past, he may be dropped or available on the wire or through a savvy package trade that pays off year-long.
So who you got? Who do you think is flying below the radar and, based on consistent value through these past few weeks, has established a trend that will continue?
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