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KarmaPolice

DraftKings Week 4

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Just took a peek, and for whatever reason (probably to get more action and rake), the SNF game isn't on the main slate, so it's just a 12 game slate.

 

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Well, pricing is tighter still as they jump up the guys who are producing - ie Ertz is right there with Gronk now, and Gurley is the 4th highest RB in salary. 

at first glance, Cook at home for 6500 and Hopkins at home for 6400 seem like locks in cash.  Both probably 1K+ too cheap for their volume and matchup.   I also still like Sanu since he sees the highest % of targets for his team at a sub-5K price. 

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I wrote down RBs for the main slate who are getting 20+ touches, see good RZ work, and are involved in their teams passing game.  In order of # of targets/g since this is ppr and all:

McCoy, Gurley, Bell, Hyde, Gordon, Cook, Fournette, Zeke, CjA.   McCoy is tough for cash, Anderson is seeing Charles and maybe now Booker eat touches.  Freeman was very close and just under the 20touches threshold, and I also wrote down Mixon since he had 23 touches this week. 

This feels very much like last year when Bell and DJ were underpriced and you could get 3 Rbs in easily each week.  On top of that, there are 4 WRs that have seen 9.5 targets/g this season and are in the 6Ks - Dez, Hopkins, Fitz, and Sanders.   Pair all this with a cheap QB like Watson, and this week is kinda fun for cash.  Honestly thinking about super punting D, and going with something like:

Watson - Freeman/Gurley/Cook - Dez/Hopkins/Sanu - James - bottom basement D. (2.6 and under)

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Last week for fun I entered a 25 cent gpp. I cashed at $1.25. I scored 175 with the lineup. That lineup would have got me 1st place in my league with my buddies. I only scored 90 in my league. Thinking of treating the league like a gpp this week and see what happens. Thoughts?

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4 hours ago, chasyone said:

Last week for fun I entered a 25 cent gpp. I cashed at $1.25. I scored 175 with the lineup. That lineup would have got me 1st place in my league with my buddies. I only scored 90 in my league. Thinking of treating the league like a gpp this week and see what happens. Thoughts?

I have a tendency to ramble like I probably did last week, but I think you should treat it like a gpp since only the top 20% or so of the contest gets $.  I think it's up to you to judge how aggressive you need to be based on what the usual scores are needed to win.  What was the score of 1st place last week, and what was the LU?

Cash target is 3x or 150pts, and it usually takes 200+ to place high in a huge tournament, if that gives you an idea.  So you might need what Dodds calls a cash+ LU - instead of a cash LU that spreads out the players, you at least stack your QB with somebody. 

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

I have a tendency to ramble like I probably did last week, but I think you should treat it like a gpp since only the top 20% or so of the contest gets $.  I think it's up to you to judge how aggressive you need to be based on what the usual scores are needed to win.  What was the score of 1st place last week, and what was the LU?

Cash target is 3x or 150pts, and it usually takes 200+ to place high in a huge tournament, if that gives you an idea.  So you might need what Dodds calls a cash+ LU - instead of a cash LU that spreads out the players, you at least stack your QB with somebody. 

Winning team in my league(160.22)

Rodgers

Cohen, Freeman

A Brown, Higgins, Parker

Ertz

Cook

Eagles

My team in the gpp(175.58)

Kizer

Gurley, McCaffery

A Brown, Higgins, Fitz

Doyle

D Henry

Steelers

We have some owners that play DFS regularly and know enough to be consistent and some that only play seasonal

 

 

 

 

Edited by chasyone

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16 minutes ago, chasyone said:

My team in the gpp(175.58)

Kizer

Gurley, McCaffery

A Brown, Higgins, Fitz

Doyle

D Henry

Steelers

We have some owners that play DFS regularly and know enough to be consistent and some that only play seasonal

 

 

 

 

What was your Cash LU?

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Just now, KarmaPolice said:

What was your Cash LU?

Wentz

Ajayi, Bell

Adams, Sanders, Sanu

Ebron

Buck Allen 

Eagles

90.54 points 

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Last week of Casual status, so I'm going all in with as many lineups as I can make.

Agree that Hopkins is a standout value. Also liking Thielen and Evans at WR, Lamar Miller at RB.

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2 hours ago, BroadwayG said:

Last week of Casual status, so I'm going all in with as many lineups as I can make.

Agree that Hopkins is a standout value. Also liking Thielen and Evans at WR, Lamar Miller at RB.

What's casual status and what are the advantages? I'm new at DK so probably have it but know nothing about it.

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Honestly, @chasyone, I wouldn't much else than what you are doing and just chalk it up to a bad week for some of the chalk you had like Ajayi, Adams, Allen.   From what you are saying it seems like something more of a cash game should do the trick most week.  Maybe just tweak it a little.  The winning team didn't have a stack in it either.  My one suggestion would probably be to stick with 3rbs and get that 3rd rb in the flex.  I wouldn't get too cute there.  You have been, but I would also advocate paying down at QB too, to get maximum targets at the other spots. 

I think the way to be slightly different would be to get an upside cheap pass catcher rb in the flex (C.Thompson and pay up at a wr, or go the opposite route and smash in 3 guys like Zeke, Freeman, and Gurley and go cheap at WR. 

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Just looked it up and this is where I should have been playing after my beginner status was up. Should be pro free, 10 entry Max and only 3 entry Max for multiplier contests.

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I love the subscriber content and do pay for it, but there are a couple other free things out there that I would recommend as well. 

  • dailyfantasynerd can be a subscriber site, but you can also just sign up and look at the free stuff.  All they do is a sortable table by position, so it is a quick one stop shop for looking at average targets/game, RZ looks/g, projected touches, vegas totals, def vs. position, etc.. 
  • I have an app on my phone too - FantasyLabs.  they have articles you can look through, but they also have player ratings and you can sort them by upside, bargin players, consistency, etc and also have them spit out a LU for you based on that qualifier.   Really like the upside plays, good place to look for gpp ideas, especially weird positions like K and D - I think they had me using KC and the Houst K instead of some of the chalk last week. 

Like I said, the pro content is well worth it for the info they give, but we need all the help we can get to try to win some bucks. 

 

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I think cash is going to drive me nuts this week because I like too many guys, plus we are going to a wedding for the weekend, so I am just going to do 7 gpps and call it good. 

The first I put in was a Stafford-Golladay stack with Zeke/Freeman/Fournette as my Rbs.  I think most will be variations of the Rbs I really like with a cheaper QB-WR combo like that. 

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13 team league LU

Watson

Freeman, Gurley

Fitz, Sanu, Hopkins

Cook

Carson

Jags

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2 hours ago, chasyone said:

13 team league LU

Watson

Freeman, Gurley

Fitz, Sanu, Hopkins

Cook

Carson

Jags

I like it.  Do you guys always play the Thurs-Mon slate?

I guess the only think that would make me nervous is not having any GB passing attack or Hunt/Kelce, but it's less than 20 people you have to beat too. 

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4 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I like it.  Do you guys always play the Thurs-Mon slate?

I guess the only think that would make me nervous is not having any GB passing attack or Hunt/Kelce, but it's less than 20 people you have to beat too. 

Yea the guy who set it up does the Thur-Sun so it makes people get a lineup in. That's his thinking anyway. I'm not sure how I can a GB receiver in there 

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2 minutes ago, chasyone said:

Yea the guy who set it up does the Thur-Sun so it makes people get a lineup in. That's his thinking anyway. I'm not sure how I can a GB receiver in there 

I could drop Freeman or Gurley for Dalvin and replace Sanu with Cobb or Adams. Thoughts?

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3 hours ago, chasyone said:

I could drop Freeman or Gurley for Dalvin and replace Sanu with Cobb or Adams. Thoughts?

I sent you a PM too, but I personally would keep it as is. 

If the king on DK is pt/$, I would rather have a guy in the 4Ks like Sanu, R.Mathews/Decker, Lee/Hurns, that could see as many targets as those two for cheaper and use that extra 1K for RB.  The other place that I would look at saving (if you need to) might be D.  There is a big diff on DK, and it's a weird position.  If I was trying to get to somebody else at RB or WR, I would look at a cheap home team like Dallas, Jets, Clev.  All you need is 6 or 7 points there to keep pace in cash, When Jax and Seattle need closer to 12pts. 

If you can't tell, I am a fan of trying to jam in as many good Rbs as possible.  Ie this week for Thurs-Mon, I would probably see if it's possible to jam in Hunt or Zeke+ Gurley or Freeman + Cook or Fournette.  I THINK it would allow you to get a cheap QB - Watson/Siemian, etc.. cheap TE - Cook/Engram, and Cheap D in there along with 2 of Fitz, Dez, Hopkins and a 4K WR. 

 

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Because I was bored at breakfast I threw in a $1 SE gpp for Thurs-Mon.  I am stubborn - one of these times my 2 stud TE LU will work!

Dak - Cook/Fournette - Dez/Garcon/J.Matthews - Kelce/Ertz - Chicago

 

 

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Well, with the rake up to 15.9 %, I withdrew from all contests I could and cashed out most of my meager winnings. Looks like I'll be casual for a while. Moving to Yahoo DFS where no ads mean more payout.

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I went 

Watson

Zeke, Cook

Fitz, Hopkins, R Matthews

J Cook

Fournette

Dallas

had to go super cheap D to jam the 3 RBs 

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One of my favorite GPP running back plays this week is Jacquizz Rodgers at 4400. Per Rich Hribar's worksheet: "The Giants are allowing a league-high 153.3 rushing yards per game after allowing 87.7 rushing yards per game in 2016 (second)." They allowed 138 yds on the ground to the Lions week 2, 193 yds on the ground to the damn Eagles in week 3. NYG are 29th DVOA against the run, TB is 4th best run blocking unit DVOA. If Jacquizz gets 15+ carries in a close home game he could pay off.

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Thoughts for cash:

Watson

Zeke/Gurley

Fitz/Sanders/Lee

Engram

Fournette

Dallas

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3 hours ago, SwampDawg said:

Thoughts for cash:

Watson

Zeke/Gurley

Fitz/Sanders/Lee

Engram

Fournette

Dallas

Looks pretty solid except that I absolutely hate the Cowboys def. this week, even at 2500.

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14 hours ago, pbandy1 said:

Looks pretty solid except that I absolutely hate the Cowboys def. this week, even at 2500.

Don't love them either  but needed cheap to fit all the RB's in. Other choices that fit are Panthers vs Patriots, Bills vs Falcons, Colts vs Seahawks, 49ers vs Cardinals, Raiders vs Broncos, Chargers vs Eagles or Browns vs Bengals. Only other real options would maybe be the 49ers but figured in that price range you are hoping for a pick 6 or safety and Rams seemed most likely to give that up.

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Cash:

Siemian - Zeke - Fournette - AJG - Rishard - Tate - Jared Cook - Engram - Cincy

GPP:

Palmer - McCoy - Fournette - Fitz - B. Marshall - E. Sanders - Seferian-Jenkins - Dalvin - Dallas

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5 hours ago, SwampDawg said:

Don't love them either  but needed cheap to fit all the RB's in. Other choices that fit are Panthers vs Patriots, Bills vs Falcons, Colts vs Seahawks, 49ers vs Cardinals, Raiders vs Broncos, Chargers vs Eagles or Browns vs Bengals. Only other real options would maybe be the 49ers but figured in that price range you are hoping for a pick 6 or safety and Rams seemed most likely to give that up.

I don't mind Chargers at 2500

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Very little connection, so can't adjust rosters.  Hopefully my entries are good from Thursday.  Good luck, gents! 

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Very little connection, so can't adjust rosters.  Hopefully my entries are good from Thursday.  Good luck, gents! 

Good Luck

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Sharp line movement on the Rams. Could be a shoot-out. Sean Lee is out for the 'Boys. I'm all over the Goff + Watkins stack right now with Bryant thrown in there too.

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Bad week on DK.  Looks like I will be pitching the no-fer on the week.  Try again with more research time! 

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On 9/28/2017 at 6:25 PM, chasyone said:

I went 

Watson

Zeke, Cook

Fitz, Hopkins, R Matthews

J Cook

Fournette

Dallas

had to go super cheap D to jam the 3 RBs 

1st place right now in my 13 man league. 157.92 points

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1 hour ago, chasyone said:

1st place right now in my 13 man league. 157.92 points

Nice! :thumbup:

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The only lineup I used Watson in scored 171+.  It cashed a $3 triple up for $9 and in the freeroll for $2. other 5 lineups scored 98-122+ and didnt cash at all.  $9.75 in and $11 out-- Ill take it.

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$8.25 in and $23.55 out. Good weekend here. Held on for 1st in my league 

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24.25 in, 37.50 out.  Wish I had played more as my main lineup scored 159.52 and my secondary scored 185.32 but everything was in double ups or the double bubble and a small $1 GPP.  And of course my weekly $5 winner take all league I am in I left my original Siemian based lineup instead of the two Watson based ones and fell 9 points short.

My best lineup was Watson/Gurley/Fournette/Green/Fitz/R.Matthews/Engram/Powell/Cardinals

Should have listened to pbandy1 and umped Dallas for the Chargers or 49ers, would have been better then the -3 from Dallas.  

Oh well, still came out a few bucks up.

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