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Week 5 ww pickups

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3 hours ago, Rushmore said:
3 hours ago, zftcg said:

In that situation, I'd bet on talent, which is John Brown. There's a chance he never gets healthy, and there's a chance the entire non-Fitz WR corps is a game of musical chairs, but Smokey is a complete receiver who has put up a 1K season as recently as two years ago.

BTW, I wouldn't read too much into last week's snap count. Apparently Arians explained it by saying that since both Smokey and JJN were banged up, they split their WR3 workload and gave Jaron the WR2 snaps. No guarantee that holds going forward.

Good post, and thanks for the Arians info.   I was wondering the same thing as the poster you quoted and was kinda leaning towards doing the same thing as you mentioned (betting on the talent/past success in John Brown).    On a side note,  I watched parts of the game Sunday and I couldn't believe Palmer had accumulated as many yards as he did.   It literally seemed like every time he dropped back he was getting smashed.  I was streaming him and had to change the channel because it was pissing me off seeing him get drilled so often. 

Couple years ago when John Brown eeked over 1K, Michael Floyd had rock solid production every week he was healthy. That was a key WW pickup for me & a nice addition to round out a championship squad. 

JJ Nelson was very productive the last third of 2016 & the first couple weeks of this year. JJ became a hot pickup at the same time he was dealing with a hammy, limiting his snaps & utilization Weeks 3 & 4.

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Murray will get first shot at the feature back role. He's been a pretty decent RB in the past. Made the Pro Bowl in 2015 & finished at RB13 in both PPR & standard last season despite missing 2 games. Nothing to sneeze at. I've heard a few people refer to him as a plodder, but Murray did put up tremendous numbers at his Pro Day, including a 4.38 40.

That said, I could see Murray being a disappointment. The key is Bradford. If he comes back soon, Murray could post some nice FF numbers. Not sure what to expect, but Murray makes an outstanding waiver wire claim, IMO.

Edited by Football Jones
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This week's Top 200 is very bullish on Murray.  He's in the RB2 tier amongst Abdullah, CJA, Miller, Coleman.

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I haven't necessarily ranked my waiver wire targets yet, but many of the players mentioned here are gone in my leagues, especially dynasty (including Murray).

That said, I've got to believe Murray is the pickup of the week in most leagues. Buyer beware because he may not live up to it, but the dynamics are there for Murray to be productive.

Edited by Football Jones

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1 hour ago, BobbyLayne said:

Couple years ago when John Brown eeked over 1K, Michael Floyd had rock solid production every week he was healthy. That was a key WW pickup for me & a nice addition to round out a championship squad. 

JJ Nelson was very productive the last third of 2016 & the first couple weeks of this year. JJ became a hot pickup at the same time he was dealing with a hammy, limiting his snaps & utilization Weeks 3 & 4.

My general rule of thumb is that no offense can really support more than 3 fantasy-relevant pass catchers (and even that is fairly rare; it usually tops out at 2.5). Also, that '15 Cards offense was way more high-powered than this year's version (although Palmer is apparently on track to set an NFL record for pass attempts).

If that holds here, Fitz is locked in, but the remaining spots are up for grabs. Ellington looks like he will be getting a lot of targets, especially the way the line is getting constantly caved in. I'd be very surprised if more than one of those WRs emerges to become an every-week starter. And of course, it's possible that they all cannibalize each other's value and no one guy emerges.

That's why I'm betting on Smokey, but my confidence level is very low.

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26 minutes ago, davearm said:

This week's Top 200 is very bullish on Murray.  He's in the RB2 tier amongst Abdullah, CJA, Miller, Coleman.

Saw that - although if you look closer at the Proected Points + Value it’s more fair to say he’s in the CJA / Smallwood / Gore borderline RB2/RB3 tier.

Have to say the Top 200 of 2016-17 (IME) is not of the same quality as the 3-4 years before that. I don’t know the explain. Some will say the explosion of DFS led to distraction for Dynasty/Redraft content.

Regardless, FBGs has a huge gap between LM & other possible RB pickups widely available this week.

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Sorry if it I missed it but any thoughts on JuJu and Trent Taylor...they are both making a little noise of late...any chance they become fantasy-relevant this year?

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4 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Saw that - although if you look closer at the Proected Points + Value it’s more fair to say he’s in the CJA / Smallwood / Gore borderline RB2/RB3 tier.

Have to say the Top 200 of 2016-17 (IME) is not of the same quality as the 3-4 years before that. I don’t know the explain. Some will say the explosion of DFS led to distraction for Dynasty/Redraft content.

Regardless, FBGs has a huge gap between LM & other possible RB pickups widely available this week.

I should have clarified, I was talking standard scoring.  LM is #17 on that list, so middle of the RB2 tier.

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19 minutes ago, davearm said:

I should have clarified, I was talking standard scoring.  LM is #17 on that list, so middle of the RB2 tier.

My bad, I was looking at our full PPR league scoring.

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31 minutes ago, BobbyLayne said:

Saw that - although if you look closer at the Proected Points + Value it’s more fair to say he’s in the CJA / Smallwood / Gore borderline RB2/RB3 tier.

Have to say the Top 200 of 2016-17 (IME) is not of the same quality as the 3-4 years before that. I don’t know the explain. Some will say the explosion of DFS led to distraction for Dynasty/Redraft content.

Regardless, FBGs has a huge gap between LM & other possible RB pickups widely available this week.

i've noticed the same, somewhat head scratchers as well. considering the O-line in MIN, the plodding nature of LM, and his past "success", I'm curious how they came to the conclusion of the 17th best RB ROS in standard scoring. 

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25 minutes ago, Boston said:

Sorry if it I missed it but any thoughts on JuJu and Trent Taylor...they are both making a little noise of late...any chance they become fantasy-relevant this year?

TT is quick, if he keeps improving the next 12 weeks like he did the last 3, he should be catching 16-20 balls a game by the time the playoffs roll around.

JuJu is relevant already - he's outsnapped Martavis back-to-back weeks. Plus he hit 'em with Kamehameha after his TD, instantly confusing every Stillers fan over 35.

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1 hour ago, 4th&inches said:

i've noticed the same, somewhat head scratchers as well. considering the O-line in MIN, the plodding nature of LM, and his past "success", I'm curious how they came to the conclusion of the 17th best RB ROS in standard scoring. 

Murray has had some recent success. He made the Pro Bowl in 2015 & just last year finished at RB13 in both PPR & standard. That's a RB1 in 14-team leagues & just outside it in 12-team leagues. And he missed 2 games.

Their OL may not be a top unit, but they've improved tremendously from last season. I'd say it's fair for FBG to be bullish on Murray. He could disappoint for sure, but if Bradford comes back soon, Murray at least has a chance to put up some nice FF numbers. 

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12 minutes ago, Football Jones said:

Murray has had some recent success. He made the Pro Bowl in 2015 & just last year finished at RB13 in both PPR & standard. That's a RB1 in 14-team leagues & just outside it in 12-team leagues. And he missed 2 games.

Their OL may not be a top unit, but they've improved tremendously from last season. I'd say it's fair for FBG to be bullish on Murray. He could disappoint for sure, but if Bradford comes back soon, Murray at least has a chance to put up some nice FF numbers. 

Sure, it's not completely out of left field, but:

 

1. He hasn't done little to nothing this far this year. Granted, Cook has been in front of him, but from all indications, he's still not 100% and a 100% LM still isn't close to Cook. Is he really going to go right into a workhorse RB role?

2. Are we really all assuming that Bradford is coming back soon? Sure, it'd be great if he could, but Bradford hasn't exactly been the pinnacle of health or recovery time. 

3. Yes, the O-line is better. It's still not good though. And how much of the O-line looking better was actually due to Cook?

 

I don't disagree that he has a chance to put up decent numbers, I just don't see him as an immediate mid-tier RB2, that's all. He's still an absolute add this week due to opportunity, but I'd also temper my expectations, that's all

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1 hour ago, 4th&inches said:

Sure, it's not completely out of left field, but:

 

1. He hasn't done little to nothing this far this year. Granted, Cook has been in front of him, but from all indications, he's still not 100% and a 100% LM still isn't close to Cook. Is he really going to go right into a workhorse RB role?

2. Are we really all assuming that Bradford is coming back soon? Sure, it'd be great if he could, but Bradford hasn't exactly been the pinnacle of health or recovery time. 

3. Yes, the O-line is better. It's still not good though. And how much of the O-line looking better was actually due to Cook?

 

I don't disagree that he has a chance to put up decent numbers, I just don't see him as an immediate mid-tier RB2, that's all. He's still an absolute add this week due to opportunity, but I'd also temper my expectations, that's all

It might come down to Murray's ankle. I'm going under the assumption he's close to 100%, but there's some debate whether he is or not.

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This feels like the week of average RB by committee pickup. None of these teams will likely be world beaters and folks are debating between guys who'll be 2 down back and PPR options and I'm nervous all around for these backs.

On my wire are guys like Powell (who I dropped) but he's fighting for time against a possibly returning Forte and a decent rookie in McGuire and still plays for the Jets. Murray is now in, but McKinnon is lingering even if we have a better idea of their likely timeshare. The Seattle mess becomes even messier with Lacy, Rawls, and McKissic all fighting for time.

It's completely anyone's guess and a mess all around and I have no idea who to grab. Right now my waiver claim looks like this: Powell > Kamara > Murray. I feel like I might be wrong on that order, but not sure if there is a right order here or just a lot of fool's gold.

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13 minutes ago, Jayded said:

On my wire are guys like Powell (who I dropped) but he's fighting for time against a possibly returning Forte and a decent rookie in McGuire and still plays for the Jets.

 The Jets are 2-2. They at least are being competitive.

Edited by simey

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Galllman: Perkins is doing absolutely nothing - 2 bucks a carry, maybe. Gallman catches (so he can stay in), and he scored a TD (Perkins had 0 in 4 games). The Giants have not been committing to the run, but Gallman toted 11 carries and the Giants tallied 25 RB carries. Before that they had 10, 16 and 17. Big problem though, games 6-7 are vs Seattle and Denver and I don't think there is much production to be had there. Anyway I think people looking for a panacea won't be finding it in this WW round, even though there appear to be lots of choices.

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13 minutes ago, Jayded said:

This feels like the week of average RB by committee pickup. None of these teams will likely be world beaters and folks are debating between guys who'll be 2 down back and PPR options and I'm nervous all around for these backs.

On my wire are guys like Powell (who I dropped) but he's fighting for time against a possibly returning Forte and a decent rookie in McGuire and still plays for the Jets. Murray is now in, but McKinnon is lingering even if we have a better idea of their likely timeshare. The Seattle mess becomes even messier with Lacy, Rawls, and McKissic all fighting for time.

It's completely anyone's guess and a mess all around and I have no idea who to grab. Right now my waiver claim looks like this: Powell > Kamara > Murray. I feel like I might be wrong on that order, but not sure if there is a right order here or just a lot of fool's gold.

Powell has been a routine RB1 when Forte has been out. If we knew for sure Forte would either be out for several games with his toe injury or be nothing more than a backup to Powell I'd say break the bank on Powell even with McGuire in the mix. But we have no idea what's going on with Forte or what the Jets plan to do with him when he returns, perhaps as soon as this week.

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13 minutes ago, Jayded said:

This feels like the week of average RB by committee pickup. None of these teams will likely be world beaters and folks are debating between guys who'll be 2 down back and PPR options and I'm nervous all around for these backs.

On my wire are guys like Powell (who I dropped) but he's fighting for time against a possibly returning Forte and a decent rookie in McGuire and still plays for the Jets. Murray is now in, but McKinnon is lingering even if we have a better idea of their likely timeshare. The Seattle mess becomes even messier with Lacy, Rawls, and McKissic all fighting for time.

It's completely anyone's guess and a mess all around and I have no idea who to grab. Right now my waiver claim looks like this: Powell > Kamara > Murray. I feel like I might be wrong on that order, but not sure if there is a right order here or just a lot of fool's gold.

Oddly enough, I think Kamara is the safest bet. He's locked into a defined role that we've seen good production from in the past. Especially if the guy in the role is talented, and Kamara has plenty of that.

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42 minutes ago, Jayded said:

This feels like the week of average RB by committee pickup. None of these teams will likely be world beaters and folks are debating between guys who'll be 2 down back and PPR options and I'm nervous all around for these backs.

On my wire are guys like Powell (who I dropped) but he's fighting for time against a possibly returning Forte and a decent rookie in McGuire and still plays for the Jets. Murray is now in, but McKinnon is lingering even if we have a better idea of their likely timeshare. The Seattle mess becomes even messier with Lacy, Rawls, and McKissic all fighting for time.

It's completely anyone's guess and a mess all around and I have no idea who to grab. Right now my waiver claim looks like this: Powell > Kamara > Murray. I feel like I might be wrong on that order, but not sure if there is a right order here or just a lot of fool's gold.

I, too, dropped Powell two weeks ago and am going to try and drop Buck Allen for him tonight. Murray is plan B. Not going to spend a lot on either.

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I have Brady and still have Watson as my top waiver claim right now...just to keep him away from other contenders with weak QB situations.  Plus he gets a juicy matchup against the Colts during Brady's bye.  I don't really wanna deal with the headaches of the Seattle backfield and don't trust Murray to do much in Minny.

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48 minutes ago, Ridcully said:

I have Brady and still have Watson as my top waiver claim right now...just to keep him away from other contenders with weak QB situations.  Plus he gets a juicy matchup against the Colts during Brady's bye.  I don't really wanna deal with the headaches of the Seattle backfield and don't trust Murray to do much in Minny.

You're slow to that party. I made that move after week one when I bought Brady low and looked at Brady's bye week matchups. I just traded for Ty Montgomery also cheap and so my top waiver claim is on Aaron Jones.

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1 hour ago, hamsterdam said:

Oddly enough, I think Kamara is the safest bet. He's locked into a defined role that we've seen good production from in the past. Especially if the guy in the role is talented, and Kamara has plenty of that.

Powell is the real deal. Who knows if Forte will ever come back to regain his early season role. I think Powell, Kamara and Murray is definitely the right order.

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16 minutes ago, Ketamine Dreams said:

Any thoughts on Ellington in PPR if he's on the wire? Seems like a lot of cheap points with the check downs to him. 

I like him a lot of those out there for PPR.  probably my top PPR pickup (assuming Kamara is not available).

I rank him over Murray, Lacy, Collins, Gallman and Jones that have been talked about.

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37 minutes ago, Ketamine Dreams said:

Any thoughts on Ellington in PPR if he's on the wire? Seems like a lot of cheap points with the check downs to him. 

I have a very small bid in on him tonight, but idk if I'll ever have the balls to start him if I get him

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Been saving high waivers in both leagues and I’m going Murray in both.

1) I’ve had less time in fantasy this year than ever, and have been pretty closely using FBG rankings both top 200 and weekly primer with good success. So just continuing that trend with the Murray pickup this week. I’ve passed on some guys because of this too. 

2) He’s got more opportunity for carries than anyone else. I don’t play PPR so he fits a pretty good bill and has a decent past as others have stated above.

3) and most importantly, I get the chance to put a Viking on my squad. Hometown bump. If I don’t snag him someone else will.

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3 minutes ago, VikingFrog said:

Been saving high waivers in both leagues and I’m going Murray in both.

1) I’ve had less time in fantasy this year than ever, and have been pretty closely using FBG rankings both top 200 and weekly primer with good success. So just continuing that trend with the Murray pickup this week. I’ve passed on some guys because of this too. 

2) He’s got more opportunity for carries than anyone else. I don’t play PPR so he fits a pretty good bill and has a decent past as others have stated above.

3) and most importantly, I get the chance to put a Viking on my squad. Hometown bump. If I don’t snag him someone else will.

Just my luck--I play against the Cook owner who no doubt will need to go after Murray, and he's higher priority in the WW order, and about $10 more FAAB than I have. Really kicking myself for spending a little over 20% on Tarik Cohen after week 1. It's a non-PPR league, and he is now looking like a potential dump for a WR like Will Fuller. I'm going to bid about 20% ($23) on Murray as that cost has seemed to be the going-rate on priority add RB's. Will drop me down to 50% spent of my season budget, but might be worth it sitting at .500 and in bottom half of league in scoring.

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13 minutes ago, Cowboysfan8 said:

I have a very small bid in on him tonight, but idk if I'll ever have the balls to start him if I get him

According to my spreadsheet thingy no one who receives relevant touches gets a higher 1ppr bump than Ellington other than Duke. Kamara is right below Ellington. They're all being utilized ~10 times per game and over the last two weeks Ellington has been utilized more than either. I view Duke and Kamara as eminently startable as I do Ellington. Guys like Duke, Kamara, Ellington, White, Thompson and Cohen are pretty unfair in full ppr. It's kind of silly.

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2 hours ago, gradin123 said:

Powell is the real deal. Who knows if Forte will ever come back to regain his early season role. I think Powell, Kamara and Murray is definitely the right order.

The Jets new OC prefers committee backfields which is nice in real football but rough in fantasyland. I play in a fun, 140-player league (8 starters, super flex, no kickers, no defense, 10 teams) and I drafted Powell and was going to add McGuire on Sunday morning until the Alex Collins news broke. I think between injuries or a possible trade of Forte for a 7th rounder, I expect Powell and McGuire to have more multiple games of double digit carries.  

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26 minutes ago, Fariq said:

The Jets new OC prefers committee backfields which is nice in real football but rough in fantasyland. I play in a fun, 140-player league (8 starters, super flex, no kickers, no defense, 10 teams) and I drafted Powell and was going to add McGuire on Sunday morning until the Alex Collins news broke. I think between injuries or a possible trade of Forte for a 7th rounder, I expect Powell and McGuire to have more multiple games of double digit carries.

It's certainly possible that Powell and Forte's snaps/touches reach some type of equilibrium and I know Morton comes from NO but Powell played on 66% of the snaps and was utilized 26 times where as McGuire played on 27% of the snaps and was utilized 12 times. I think Cadet saw a snap or two. I watched the game and certainly seemed to me that Powell was "the guy". The truth is McGuire's snaps have stayed relatively consistent since week 2 (20%, 19%, 27%), Forte or no Forte. You'll notice he actually saw the field less the game Forte exited.

I wouldn't exactly be surprised to see McGuire carve out a larger role but I'm not sure we'll ever see a legit timeshare.

I'm rereading your post and I'm not sure you were even alluding to this becoming a timeshare but I'll leave this out here anyway.

Edited by SameSongNDance

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Just nabbed Murray for a third of my FAAB money. Hoping he reaches low end RB2 value, really OK sched coming up before a Week 9 BYE

 

Oct 9 @Chi -  Mon 8:30 pm

Oct 15 GB - Sun 1:00 pm

Oct 22 Bal - Sun 1:00 pm

Oct 29 @Cle - Sun 9:30 am (London)

.

Edited by The Frankman

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Engram cleared waivers and is tempting me though I'd have to drop Rudolph to get him. Tempting... Rudolph + Bradford >> Engram but with Keenum, Rudolph is a spectator.

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4 minutes ago, oddsbodkins said:

Engram cleared waivers and is tempting me though I'd have to drop Rudolph to get him. Tempting... Rudolph + Bradford >> Engram but with Keenum, Rudolph is a spectator.

I'd take Engram over Rudolph regardless of QB.

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5 hours ago, SameSongNDance said:

It's certainly possible that Powell and Forte's snaps/touches reach some type of equilibrium and I know Morton comes from NO but Powell played on 66% of the snaps and was utilized 26 times where as McGuire played on 27% of the snaps and was utilized 12 times. I think Cadet saw a snap or two. I watched the game and certainly seemed to me that Powell was "the guy". The truth is McGuire's snaps have stayed relatively consistent since week 2 (20%, 19%, 27%), Forte or no Forte. You'll notice he actually saw the field less the game Forte exited.

I wouldn't exactly be surprised to see McGuire carve out a larger role but I'm not sure we'll ever see a legit timeshare.

I'm rereading your post and I'm not sure you were even alluding to this becoming a timeshare but I'll leave this out here anyway.

I see it playing out similar to how it did on Sunday. In games in which Forte does not play, Powell might get about 17 carries and McGuire 8-12. 

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In one league I was able to add kamara and gallman to a RB needy team

Another I was able to add Rawls for nothing and moved up one spot in priority.  

Good week

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I added Aaron Jones and Gallman on waivers. Kamara and Murray cleared waivers and I added them too. The four players dropped: Cook, Hurns, Kelley, and Collins.

In the league we have 140 players on rosters, no kickers, no defense, eight starters per team and a super flex. 

I have no clue why nobody bid on Murray. Even though I was the Cook owner I did not bother to make a bid because I figured someone would put in a huge bid on him. I would have only bid a small figure and decided to not waste my time. Then seeing that he cleared waivers, he was an easy add.    

 

 

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I could see McGuire as becoming the main back and perhaps being startable as a flex player in the RB3 range with potential upside to an RB2.  Forte is in for a reduced role when/if he returns.   McGuire will be one of the better pick-ups this week.  

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25 minutes ago, oddsbodkins said:

Engram cleared waivers and is tempting me though I'd have to drop Rudolph to get him. Tempting... Rudolph + Bradford >> Engram but with Keenum, Rudolph is a spectator.

Do it. Safe floor and Engram is seeing a ton of targets all over the field.

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Just now, Megaton said:

I could see McGuire as becoming the main back and perhaps being startable as a flex player in the RB3 range with potential upside to an RB2.  Forte is in for a reduced role when/if he returns.   McGuire will be one of the better pick-ups this week.  

I doubt he will start unless Forte and Powell are both injured but he does appear to be a good player. I almost added him on Sunday morning and then I came here and saw stuff about Alex Collins. I play in a different sort of league with a bunch of flex slots. I can start four running backs per week which means there could be 40 RBs seeing action in my league in a given week. Even though it is a 10-team league, McGuire I think has value. In a more traditional 12-team league, I would consider him more of a risk to have on a roster. 

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7 minutes ago, Fariq said:

I added Aaron Jones and Gallman on waivers. Kamara and Murray cleared waivers and I added them too. The four players dropped: Cook, Hurns, Kelley, and Collins.

In the league we have 140 players on rosters, no kickers, no defense, eight starters per team and a super flex. 

I have no clue why nobody bid on Murray. Even though I was the Cook owner I did not bother to make a bid because I figured someone would put in a huge bid on him. I would have only bid a small figure and decided to not waste my time. Then seeing that he cleared waivers, he was an easy add.    

 

 

Awesome

I felt the same way with all my adds.  Dropped West, cook, Carson

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2 minutes ago, Fariq said:

I doubt he will start unless Forte and Powell are both injured but he does appear to be a good player. I almost added him on Sunday morning and then I came here and saw stuff about Alex Collins. I play in a different sort of league with a bunch of flex slots. I can start four running backs per week which means there could be 40 RBs seeing action in my league in a given week. Even though it is a 10-team league, McGuire I think has value. In a more traditional 12-team league, I would consider him more of a risk to have on a roster. 

16-team league with 1-RB, 1WR and 3 Flex.  Someone burnt a top spot picking up McGuire this week.  

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Just now, Megaton said:

16-team league with 1-RB, 1WR and 3 Flex.  Someone burnt a top spot picking up McGuire this week.  

Okay. Yeah in that type of league he should be on a roster. I would definitely start him in such a league even if he was not starting in real football. 

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Got Watson on both leagues I put claims in for him; 1 was low priority claim, the other was for $38 of my $200 FAAB budget (have Ryan in bye this week). 

Missed on Gallman, A. Jones, & L. Murray was already owned. 

 

McGuire is still out there though. Not to get too "my team" here, but I think there's likely a lot of others in a similar situation. How would you guys rank McGuire vs. the other RB/WR lotto tickets:

  • Collins
  • Foreman
  • Kupp
  • Corey Davis 
  • Kamara

Currently, I think I'd rank it as:

  1. Kamara
  2. Collins
  3. Foreman
  4. Kupp
  5. McGuire
  6. Davis (flip flop with McGuire in keeper/ Dynasty)
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Powell looked pedestrian on his touches besides the busted long touch down. McGuire should be owned in most leagues to see if his carries increase.

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11 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

Powell is like Mercedes Lewis was last week. You know these guys are fools gold.

The difference is Lewis hasn't been a reliable TE1 when certain variables are in place. Powell has been a productive RB1 with Forte out of the lineup. 

The variables here are we don't know when Forte will be back and what role he'll have when he returns. If it goes back to the first few weeks than I agree Powell's value takes a big hit. But if Forte is out for an extended time (which can happen with turf toe injuries) or the Jets decide to make Forte a minimal-touch backup than Powell would be the top RB add in all leagues where available in my opinion. He's proven he can be a Top 10 RB and those are hard to find off the WW. 

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