What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Which Johnny-Come-Lately Running Back Has the Highest Ceiling? (1 Viewer)

Flint Fireballs!

Footballguy
Be it Wayne Gallman, Elijah McGuire, J.D. McKissic, Austin Ekeler or Aaron Jones?

I'm in only one league, and it's a dynasty, so I'm interested in the big picture, but I'm also curious to hear opinions for the rest of the season as well.

And because my interest skews toward the long term, I've given more consideration to talent, best as I can discern it, than situation.  With that said, the cuts I've seen Elijah McGuire make, and the impact he's had in such a limited role lead me to believe that it's him.

As for this season, I'd say Wayne Gallman, mostly because of opportunity.

Thanks for any replies.

 
For redraft playoff time, I'd remove Collins. Can't see Jones stealing the job either. I think it's gotta be one of the Minnesota guys or Gallman. Then Seattle. 

Those two are imo the highest ceiling barring injuries.

 
Gallman has the best opportunity right now but...  The Giants are a hot mess and their O-line isn't very good.  Long term this season, I like Ekeler (with Gordon's knee issues).  McGuire is a close second.  Forte's done.  Powell will get the bulk but by mid-late season I think the Jets will want to see what they have in him and he's looked real good so far.  McKissic won't be relevant until Prosise goes down again (which might not be too long either).

 
I'll go McGuire - pass catching, got some speed, can ball

Not new RB's but I think Latavius Murray could be really good from here out for volume, PPR and goal line all

 
I don't do dynasty but for redraft in order IMO:

1. Collins

2. Gallman

3. McGuire

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I don't like trying to assess who has the highest ceiling because highest ceiling =/= most valuable. 

If I had to guess who has the best shot at holding the most value in redraft this year, it would be Gallman. If we're not taking into account injuries, he's the only one I could see completely taking over his backfield and inheriting the requisite volume to turn into a weekly play.

Second would be Collins, who is in a similar situation to Gallman. His competition is weak and he stands to inherit legitimate volume. 

McGuire has flashed plus athleticism but I don't think he has much talent as a runner. I don't see him supplanting Powell at any point this season; at best he could turn the backfield into a timeshare.

I like Ekeler but if Gordon stays healthy his ceiling is your average COP role i.e ~10 touches a game (mostly targets).

McKissic will be battling Prosise for the COP role, Rawls will be battling Lacy for the early down role. Again, assuming health I think Rawls/Prosise win out and we see a 60/40 split.

Assuming Ty can stay healthy, Jones likely won't see much work this season

I pretty much ordered this in who I perceive to have the most opportunity and subsequently the most value.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Agree with SSND except I'd put Jones 3rd behind Collins b/c of what he's shown he can do with opportunity (obv limited sample size) and I question Montgomery's ability to stay healthy if he keeps getting carries and taking punishment.  

 
Agree with SSND except I'd put Jones 3rd behind Collins b/c of what he's shown he can do with opportunity (obv limited sample size) and I question Montgomery's ability to stay healthy if he keeps getting carries and taking punishment.
I have to assume that Ty's ribs heal up at some point and when they do the job is his. I'm actually bullish on Jones despite those rankings it's just that I made sure to hold the "starter remains healthy" variable constant through-out the rankings. If I didn't it would be kind of hard to discern the difference in their values, they'd all be extremely valuable. I guess maybe it's incorrect of me to assume that Perkins isn't still the starter but the truth is I don't even think he deserves to start for a CFL team.

But yeah, I have exactly zero faith in Ty staying healthy through out the season. In week 1 he limped off the field with an ankle injury that ended up being minor a sprain, in week 3 he went to the sideline with an apparent hand/wrist injury that ended up being a minor sprain and in week 4 he went to the sideline with an apparent chest injury that ended up being multiple broken ribs. My gut tells me that he can't withstand the rigors of the position.

 
Great analysis in this thread. It matches most of my waiver wire pick ups over last two weeks.

I now have Collins, McGuire, Ekeler, and Jaron Brown on my bench. I'm starting Brown this week and debating who to start for my running backs which includes a few other players like Beastmode and Mixon.

I definitely think Ekeler is a good pick up. I "was" a huge Charger fan, I live in SD, so no LA fan here....but one thing about Rivers, he likes the little dump passes that he's made a career of....two years ago Woodhead had a huge season with those little dump passes. I think picking up Ekeler just for this week to see how they utilize him is a smart preventative move before he has 8 receptions for 60 yards and a TD and a few hand offs for another 15-20 yards too and you have to fight to get him off the waiver wire. Also I am pretty convinced Gordon is going to go down here one of these weeks real soon.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I think they are all just part of the soupy mess that is exists beyond RB16 or so. When I hear Galman, McKissic, etc. I just think of Chris Johnson, Wendall Smallwood, Jeremy Hill. Just a bunch of guys you probably cut in a week. Then someone else picks them and cuts them 2 weeks later. Rinse, wash, repeat. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I cannot fully answer Flints question from the original post, because I haven't evaluated all of the players he mentions.

In terms of talent I would rate Collins as more talented than Gallman, Two of the players mentioned that I have watched enough to have a sense of their skill set at the college level, and briefly at the pro level.

I think Collins is actually good enough to earn and maintain a starter level role for the Ravens, not only this season, but if he performs well enough for them, possibly into 2018 as well. I like his chances of doing that more than Wayne Gallman, who also does have some positive traits, but strikes me as more of a depth player who the Giants (or another team) would be looking to upgrade from perpetually.

I would put Aaron Jones in the same category as Gallman. A player who could be a lead RB for a team for a time, but also a player that their team will always look to upgrade from.

I have not watched McGuire, McKassic or  Ekeler enough to offer an opinion about them. I find McGuire to be the most intriguing of those but I still know too little about these players to say more.

 
McGuire has the most talent of those in the OP, but is rrrreally undisciplined. doesnt wait for blockers, run routes, passblock, nor adjust past his one-cut. tremendous burst, though. Gallman has never looked pretty doing the job, but always does the job, as he did in his first opp w the jints. expect more of the same.

 
McGuire has the most talent of those in the OP, but is rrrreally undisciplined. doesnt wait for blockers, run routes, passblock, nor adjust past his one-cut. tremendous burst, though. Gallman has never looked pretty doing the job, but always does the job, as he did in his first opp w the jints. expect more of the same.
Everything you mentioned about McGuire is what I've witnessed and what lead me to the conclusion that he doesn't have a lot of "talent" as a runner. A lack of patience, vision, a feel for the creases etc., the intangibles I look for in a RB, he seems to lack. Maybe it's just semantics or maybe I'm not using the word correctly but he seems to lack talent to me. He looks to be athletically gifted and can do some nice things in space though.

 
Everything you mentioned about McGuire is what I've witnessed and what lead me to the conclusion that he doesn't have a lot of "talent" as a runner. A lack of patience, vision, a feel for the creases etc., the intangibles I look for in a RB, he seems to lack. Maybe it's just semantics or maybe I'm not using the word correctly but he seems to lack talent to me. He looks to be athletically gifted and can do some nice things in space though.
I agree with this. The term talent to me does not mean athleticism, but a combination of trait based skills and abilities beyond athleticism.

 
I'll name someone new: Kenyan Drake.


Good point, and at worst its a name this community should be more cognizant of.

The fact is, Ajayi hasn't done much of anything,even though its in big part because of the team around him.

Kenyan Drake has done so little in actual games this year, its hard to gauge what he could become. But he should at least be on everyone's radar......... he is like the backup that everyone is forgetting. Its hard to fathom too, since its not like Ajayi hasn't had  knee concerns since he entered the NFL.

 TZM

 
The best RB with a clear shot at taking over the duties for his team seems like Gallman to me.   He can run and catch passes which adds a lot of value in PPR leagues.   I also think the Giants O improves as the season progresses.   

Jones is second on my list.  He is on the best O of the lottery ticket RBs and the RBs in front of him are banged up.   If he takes over as the RB in GB, he becomes an undeniable RB1.  

 
I don't know the answer for sure, but as someone in a 16-team league without a clear RB2 (currently Cohen, Riddick and Collins behind DeMarco), it's a question I have a keen interest in figuring out. This week I stayed off the RB WW because I decided none had the upside that Collins did, although I'm already doubting myself re: Gallman.

I don't need this year's Howard or Ajayi. I'd settle for Fat Rob.

 
The best RB with a clear shot at taking over the duties for his team seems like Gallman to me.   He can run and catch passes which adds a lot of value in PPR leagues.   I also think the Giants O improves as the season progresses.   

Jones is second on my list.  He is on the best O of the lottery ticket RBs and the RBs in front of him are banged up.   If he takes over as the RB in GB, he becomes an undeniable RB1.  
I like Jones but I'm skeptical he would get the usage necessary to put up rb1 production. Without Montgomery I think they'd just lean on Rodgers and the passing game.

 
I own Collins and Gallman and feel better about Gallman's chances. As mentioned above Gallman may not always look pretty but he seems to be the type to " get er done". Instead of becoming enamored with the combine underwear speedsters I keep looking for the next E. Smith, Foster, Rice type of RB's. This year Hunt was that guy for me and Gallman was the cheap flyer to hope could be a lesser version of these guys.

Not a Johnny come lately but everyone is hating on "Fat" Eddie, he may be the best pick up if he was also on the waiver wire.

 
nb009 said:
I'll name someone new: Kenyan Drake.
In the most recent game Jay Ajayi played on 62% of the snaps which was more than the 52% of the snaps he played against the Jets. He played on 94% of the snaps in the Dolphins first game so this is an indication of them limiting his playing time, likely due to him having soreness in his knee and recommendations from their medical staff and leaning heavily on sports science in regards to their players playing time.

Kenyan Drake played on 17% of the snaps against the Saints which was less than the 32% of the snaps he had against the Jets. Damien Williams played on 21% of the snaps last week so slightly more than Drake played.

Drake had one run for 6 yards which I saw, there was a defender meeting him in the backfield who he side steps and got to the outside for 6 yards. I thought that looked good. Drake had 3 targets in the game and 2 receptions for 5 yards. Thats not so good. He did have one more target than Williams and 2 more than Ajayi who had one reception for 8 yards. Williams did not catch either of his 2 targets.

My point of view on Drake has improved based on comments from the offensive coordinator saying they do think he could be a featured RB. That they see him as that. My view about him is that he would only be a change of pace and special teams player. The coaches comments need to be taken with a grain of salt however, as he does also say that Drake hasn't learned what it takes to be a pro. That there are a lot of great athletes in the NFL but only a few pros. In this context he is saying that Drake is not a pro (yet) and said I think to motivate Drake. That they hope he can become a pro, but he isn't there yet.

When I do rookie rankings I divide the players into 3 different tiers. Tier one players are the ones I see as having the upside to become top 12 players at their position for fantasy. Tier two players are ones that I think have the upside to become top 24 players for fantasy, but not likely top 12. The tier 3 players are those who I don't see as having top 24 upside but could still be starters for a time if injuries open up that opportunity for them. These tiers are also related to a players staying power. A tier two player is one that I might not see as having top 12 upside, but who could have multiple top 24 type seasons, they have more staying power than the tier 3 guys do.

To me Drake was a tier 3 player. So even if he does get starter reps at some point in his career, I don't really see him as being able to hold on to that role for long, that the team will always be looking to upgrade from that player in the draft or free agency.

Of the players mentioned in this thread so far, Collins is the only one who I graded as a tier two type prospect. The others are tier 3.

Now as I already mentioned I haven't watched some of these players enough to try to grade them like this, such as McGuire, McCassic and Ekeler.

I did think Aaron Jones was a better prospect than Jamaal Williams pre NFL draft. ZWK whos opinion I respect in regards to this had a similar view before they both landed on the same team.

After the draft I ranked WIlliams as a low tier two player because he was drafted higher than Jones, and he also had the skill set that I thought fit a 2 RB tandem that Green Bay has been using for quite some time, and that Jones was more similar to Mongomery as far as those RB roles are, so Jones being behind Mongomery and WIlliams in that regard. I kept Jones as a tier 3 player (a fairly high one meaning he is borderline) and Williams a low tier two player (also borderline).

As time has gone on it seems that my perspective (as well as ZWK's and others) about Jones having more upside that Williams seems to be a more accurate assessment. But I still view him as more of a tier 3 player rather than tier 2. If anything I regret somewhat having WIlliams as a low tier two guy. I mainly ranked him there because of the draft position and fit than my confidence in him being a guy who could earn a starting role and hang on to it for multiple seasons. I was influenced somewhat by others who were much higher on Jamaal Williams than I was as part of that as well. Maybe should have stuck with my pre NFL draft view about that, but I do try to consider draft position and how the player fits within the team system for the post NFL ranking, which bumped WIlliams up to tier two on my list.

 
zftcg said:
I don't know the answer for sure, but as someone in a 16-team league without a clear RB2 (currently Cohen, Riddick and Collins behind DeMarco), it's a question I have a keen interest in figuring out. This week I stayed off the RB WW because I decided none had the upside that Collins did, although I'm already doubting myself re: Gallman.

I don't need this year's Howard or Ajayi. I'd settle for Fat Rob.
I think Collins is your guy as long as he doesn't fumble his opportunity away.

 
I think Collins is your guy as long as he doesn't fumble his opportunity away.
Yeah, I'm trying not to chase the flavor of the week and think long term. I like Collins' opportunity, and the fact that he's produced even though the offense had sucked.

FWIW, I was in a similar position last year when I had to decide between Dwayne Washington and Howard. Hard to remember this now, but both seemed like they had the potential to capitalize on their RB1's injury. Thank God I went with Howard 

 
Yeah, I'm trying not to chase the flavor of the week and think long term. I like Collins' opportunity, and the fact that he's produced even though the offense had sucked.

FWIW, I was in a similar position last year when I had to decide between Dwayne Washington and Howard. Hard to remember this now, but both seemed like they had the potential to capitalize on their RB1's injury. Thank God I went with Howard 
My view about Collins goes back to the evaluation of him as a college player as well, as far as my confidence in him.

My evaluation looked to be wrong because he didn't get much opportunity with Seattle and ultimately was cut from their team. But what he has done so far with the Ravens has me thinking that my original evaluation of him as a RB was correct.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
My view about Collins goes back to the evaluation of him as a college player as well, as far as my confidence in him.

My evaluation looked to be wrong because he didn't get much opportunity with Seattle and ultimately was cut from their team. But what he has done so far with the Ravens has me thinking that my original evaluation of him as a RB was correct.
Always helpful to hear the perspective of people doing the research I'm too lazy to do myself.  :D

 
Drake should probably get more touches, yeah. He's still a bit too frenetic, often wanting to bounce ####/pull something crazy behind the LoS but I think he could help provide a spark to MIA's offense. Every time he touches the ball I see someone who can make plays. It'll be interesting to see if he gets more involved. 

 
Drake should probably get more touches, yeah. He's still a bit too frenetic, often wanting to bounce ####/pull something crazy behind the LoS but I think he could help provide a spark to MIA's offense. Every time he touches the ball I see someone who can make plays. It'll be interesting to see if he gets more involved. 
I am somewhat surprised with how bad he has been as a receiver (with very few opportunities) this year.

He wasn't particularly good last year in this area either, but it was better than what he has done so far. Which to me points to the Dolphins offense as a whole not performing as well as last year so far. 

As someone mentioned this may be due to Cutler or Gase. Aside from the first game Miami has been a really bad offense collectively.

 
If there is one player that I think could be that guy who could be a difference maker at the end of the year it's Kamara. He has the talent, the offense, an expanding role, end of season schedule, and big play ability.

 
If there is one player that I think could be that guy who could be a difference maker at the end of the year it's Kamara. He has the talent, the offense, an expanding role, end of season schedule, and big play ability.
Name checks out. But I do think he will be nice in PPR. No interest for standard for me.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
In terms of play style I kind of like Clement who is a slasher and just all around good RB. He really lacks burst though and I think his upside is limited because of that. I see him as a career back up or a tier 3 player.
As a badger homer, I agree. He could have some short term value as the last man standing if Blount goes down, but not much more than that.

 
As a badger homer, I agree. He could have some short term value as the last man standing if Blount goes down, but not much more than that.
The Badgers traditionally have good offensive line and Clement could get what was blocked. Good vision and some change of direction ability. He couldn't get much more than what was blocked though, due to a lack of burst and acceleration.

 
The Badgers traditionally have good offensive line and Clement could get what was blocked. Good vision and some change of direction ability. He couldn't get much more than what was blocked though, due to a lack of burst and acceleration.
Yep. Guys like John Clay and PJ Hill had similar talent, similar college production, and no NFL career. 

 
Yep. Guys like John Clay and PJ Hill had similar talent, similar college production, and no NFL career. 
Since he was a Badger I naturally compare him to other Wisconsin backs. Clement is a couple tiers worse than Gordon and not as good as Ball who I didn't think very highly of either although he was a pretty high pick in the NFL draft.

Also not as good as James White, although perhaps closer as a runner. White being a very good receiving RB.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top