nb009 said:
I'll name someone new: Kenyan Drake.
In the most recent game Jay Ajayi played on 62% of the snaps which was more than the 52% of the snaps he played against the Jets. He played on 94% of the snaps in the Dolphins first game so this is an indication of them limiting his playing time, likely due to him having soreness in his knee and recommendations from their medical staff and leaning heavily on sports science in regards to their players playing time.
Kenyan Drake played on 17% of the snaps against the Saints which was less than the 32% of the snaps he had against the Jets. Damien Williams played on 21% of the snaps last week so slightly more than Drake played.
Drake had one run for 6 yards which I saw, there was a defender meeting him in the backfield who he side steps and got to the outside for 6 yards. I thought that looked good. Drake had 3 targets in the game and 2 receptions for 5 yards. Thats not so good. He did have one more target than Williams and 2 more than Ajayi who had one reception for 8 yards. Williams did not catch either of his 2 targets.
My point of view on Drake has improved based on comments from the offensive coordinator saying they do think he could be a featured RB. That they see him as that. My view about him is that he would only be a change of pace and special teams player. The coaches comments need to be taken with a grain of salt however, as he does also say that Drake hasn't learned what it takes to be a pro. That there are a lot of great athletes in the NFL but only a few pros. In this context he is saying that Drake is not a pro (yet) and said I think to motivate Drake. That they hope he can become a pro, but he isn't there yet.
When I do rookie rankings I divide the players into 3 different tiers. Tier one players are the ones I see as having the upside to become top 12 players at their position for fantasy. Tier two players are ones that I think have the upside to become top 24 players for fantasy, but not likely top 12. The tier 3 players are those who I don't see as having top 24 upside but could still be starters for a time if injuries open up that opportunity for them. These tiers are also related to a players staying power. A tier two player is one that I might not see as having top 12 upside, but who could have multiple top 24 type seasons, they have more staying power than the tier 3 guys do.
To me Drake was a tier 3 player. So even if he does get starter reps at some point in his career, I don't really see him as being able to hold on to that role for long, that the team will always be looking to upgrade from that player in the draft or free agency.
Of the players mentioned in this thread so far, Collins is the only one who I graded as a tier two type prospect. The others are tier 3.
Now as I already mentioned I haven't watched some of these players enough to try to grade them like this, such as McGuire, McCassic and Ekeler.
I did think Aaron Jones was a better prospect than Jamaal Williams pre NFL draft. ZWK whos opinion I respect in regards to this had a similar view before they both landed on the same team.
After the draft I ranked WIlliams as a low tier two player because he was drafted higher than Jones, and he also had the skill set that I thought fit a 2 RB tandem that Green Bay has been using for quite some time, and that Jones was more similar to Mongomery as far as those RB roles are, so Jones being behind Mongomery and WIlliams in that regard. I kept Jones as a tier 3 player (a fairly high one meaning he is borderline) and Williams a low tier two player (also borderline).
As time has gone on it seems that my perspective (as well as ZWK's and others) about Jones having more upside that Williams seems to be a more accurate assessment. But I still view him as more of a tier 3 player rather than tier 2. If anything I regret somewhat having WIlliams as a low tier two guy. I mainly ranked him there because of the draft position and fit than my confidence in him being a guy who could earn a starting role and hang on to it for multiple seasons. I was influenced somewhat by others who were much higher on Jamaal Williams than I was as part of that as well. Maybe should have stuck with my pre NFL draft view about that, but I do try to consider draft position and how the player fits within the team system for the post NFL ranking, which bumped WIlliams up to tier two on my list.