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Top 200 Forward - Week 6 - Something is WAYYYYYYY off? (1 Viewer)

Gottabesweet

Gottabesweet

Footballguy
I find it weird that Kamara went from RB12 on a week he didn't even play with a projected 177 ROS points last week to RB20 with 121 ROS points (My league gives small KR points)

Every week this report, just seems to be based off last weeks performance.

Other explanations in the posts below showing certain players ranked lower with more points.

 
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Gottabesweet said:
I find it weird that Kamara went from RB12 on a week he didn't even play with a projected 177 ROS points last week to RB20 with 121 ROS points (My league gives small KR points)

Every week this report, just seems to be based off last weeks performance.
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Especially now with the Peterson trade news

 
MattFancy said:
Especially now with the Peterson trade news
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I'd assume this was done prior to the trade however even looking at PPR scoring.

RB 20  This week with 121 points rest of season.

Last week he was RB11 with 161 points.

Where did those 40 points of projections go in the one week he didn't play?

 
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Some more oddities:

Doug Baldwin is WR17 ROS. Yet has more projected points than Sanders, Diggs, Hill, Landry, and Cooks, who are all ranked ahead of him.

Doug Martin has more projected points than Miller, Anderson, and Ajayi, yet is ranked behind them all. Same with Joe Mixon. Mixon actually is projected more points than Martin.

Danny Woodhead projected more points than Ingram LOL. That's just horrible.

 
Another thing I don't get.

Davante Parker is ahead of Adam Theilen

The points say otherwise:

Parker 12.6 this week  117 rest of season (has had bye and his projections are lower)

Theilen 13.9 this week and 130 rest of season (hasn't had bye yet)

Who does these? maybe we can tag them and get some sort of clarification. @David Dodds

 
MattFancy said:
Some more oddities:

Doug Baldwin is WR17 ROS. Yet has more projected points than Sanders, Diggs, Hill, Landry, and Cooks, who are all ranked ahead of him.

Doug Martin has more projected points than Miller, Anderson, and Ajayi, yet is ranked behind them all. Same with Joe Mixon. Mixon actually is projected more points than Martin.

Danny Woodhead projected more points than Ingram LOL. That's just horrible.
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Who can we tag, something seems WAYYYY off

 
Gottabesweet said:
Who can we tag, something seems WAYYYY off
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Well the first set looks like Maurile's. The glaring one is definitely how in the world is Woodhead ahead of Ingram? Even before the Peterson news. In a standard league, he has Ingram as RB44 ROS. There's no freaking way.

 
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MattFancy said:
Some more oddities:

Doug Baldwin is WR17 ROS. Yet has more projected points than Sanders, Diggs, Hill, Landry, and Cooks, who are all ranked ahead of him.

Doug Martin has more projected points than Miller, Anderson, and Ajayi, yet is ranked behind them all. Same with Joe Mixon. Mixon actually is projected more points than Martin.

Danny Woodhead projected more points than Ingram LOL. That's just horrible.
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Which scoring are you looking at?

With my league's scoring, Doug Martin is ranked ahead of Miller/Mixon/Ajayi, and is projected slightly more points than them.

Baldwin is ranked below Diggs/Sanders/Hill, but is in fact projected to score fewer points than them (120 for Baldwin vs 132.3, 130.3, and 129.1 respectively)

While I don't necessarily agree with all of the rankings (agreed with your Woodhead/Ingram comment), the rankings seems to be in line with their remaining projected points, so it's not that big of an issue.

 
Moonshine said:
Which scoring are you looking at?

With my league's scoring, Doug Martin is ranked ahead of Miller/Mixon/Ajayi, and is projected slightly more points than them.

Baldwin is ranked below Diggs/Sanders/Hill, but is in fact projected to score fewer points than them (120 for Baldwin vs 132.3, 130.3, and 129.1 respectively)

While I don't necessarily agree with all of the rankings (agreed with your Woodhead/Ingram comment), the rankings seems to be in line with their remaining projected points, so it's not that big of an issue.
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Seems to be the custom projections are what's being messed up.

Parker has less points than Thielen, however in PPR rankings it's correct Thielen is higher

However in my custom league settings, the points are the same as the PPR above however Parker is ahead of Thielen.  @David Dodds

 
Moonshine said:
Which scoring are you looking at?

With my league's scoring, Doug Martin is ranked ahead of Miller/Mixon/Ajayi, and is projected slightly more points than them.

Baldwin is ranked below Diggs/Sanders/Hill, but is in fact projected to score fewer points than them (120 for Baldwin vs 132.3, 130.3, and 129.1 respectively)

While I don't necessarily agree with all of the rankings (agreed with your Woodhead/Ingram comment), the rankings seems to be in line with their remaining projected points, so it's not that big of an issue.
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I was looking at my league and their PPR rankings. Baldwin was listed below all of those guys. Same with Martin.

 
Even going further down.  WR40 in my settings Jordan Matthews  91 points rest of season 10.7 a game.

It seems to be sorting it by that column?

Cooper Kupp is one spot below him with 103 points rest of season plus 10.5 more this week, while Matthews is hurt. 

However in PPR it's correct WR39 for Kupp,  WR50 for Matthews, with the same exact WR projection points as my league's settings.  @David Dodds 

@Maurile Tremblay @Sigmund Bloom

 
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Gottabesweet said:
Another thing I don't get.

Davante Parker is ahead of Adam Theilen

The points say otherwise:

Parker 12.6 this week  117 rest of season (has had bye and his projections are lower)

Theilen 13.9 this week and 130 rest of season (hasn't had bye yet)
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If I remember correctly this list has always had that problem. It doesn't seem to calculate bye weeks, it just multiplies the same number of remaining weeks for every player no matter what.

 
It does look like it's sorted by PPG. However, there's still questionable rankings going forward. The most obvious one is why is Woodhead ahead of Ingram? He can't even come back for another 3-4 weeks, right? So why is he ahead of him? And why is Ingram so far down to begin with? RB35 in PPR ROS seems WAY low.

Not sure how Luck can be ahead of guys like Roethlisberger, Palmer, and Carr. We have no clue when Luck will be back. I know Ben has looked bad so far, but no way would I take Luck over him right now. Palmer has been serviceable this year, so not sure why he would be QB22.

Watkins has been disappointing, but WR49 ROS? Tyrell Williams WR60?

 
LittlePhatty said:
If I remember correctly this list has always had that problem. It doesn't seem to calculate bye weeks, it just multiplies the same number of remaining weeks for every player no matter what.
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It's correct on the PPR rankings it ranks Thielen with those points ahead of Parker

However in my same exact scoring system with the same projections it has Parker higher.

I'd just like a staffer to look at the formula's is all.  Something's off more so than normal.

 
MattFancy said:
Well the first set looks like Maurile's. The glaring one is definitely how in the world is Woodhead ahead of Ingram? Even before the Peterson news. In a standard league, he has Ingram as RB44 ROS. There's no freaking way.
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I do projections only one week ahead (right now, only for Week 6), and I I'm projecting Woodhead for 0.0 points. I don't know what the issues are with the sorting or the calculations more generally, but I'll raise it as an issue with our staff...

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
I do projections only one week ahead (right now, only for Week 6), and I I'm projecting Woodhead for 0.0 points. I don't know what the issues are with the sorting or the calculations more generally, but I'll raise it as an issue with our staff...
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Gotcha. Yeah that one is definitely glaring. The others I could argue with, but that one really stood out.

 
Maurile Tremblay said:
I do projections only one week ahead (right now, only for Week 6), and I I'm projecting Woodhead for 0.0 points. I don't know what the issues are with the sorting or the calculations more generally, but I'll raise it as an issue with our staff...
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Appreciate it, I feel like there's something wrong with a formula and the sorting.  I'm not so much concerned with the projections as much as the players being sorted incorrect order based on those projections.

 
Gottabesweet said:
Appreciate it, I feel like there's something wrong with a formula and the sorting.  I'm not so much concerned with the projections as much as the players being sorted incorrect order based on those projections.
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There appears to be something wrong with the formula. It looks like the people on byes this week are rated higher than they should be. For instance, Dak is projected 250pts ROS, which is more than Rodgers and Brady, and just barely below Brees. I don't think it's taking into account byes.

Same thing with guys like McCoy and Mixon. McCoy, by projected points, is RB5 and Mixon is RB11.

 
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Something is definitely way off.  Even if you use FBG default scoring.  Tarik Cohen is listed ahead of Alvin Kamara.  And the Saints already done with their bye week.  This example has some extreme oversight as Kamara has been playing way more snaps for his team than Cohen.

 
steelwind said:
Something is definitely way off.  Even if you use FBG default scoring.  Tarik Cohen is listed ahead of Alvin Kamara.  And the Saints already done with their bye week.  This example has some extreme oversight as Kamara has been playing way more snaps for his team than Cohen.
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He was my issue in post one.  He was projected at 161 PPR points while he was on his bye week for ROS.  One week later he's now 121 points (with an improved situation) and dropped a ton of spots.

 
We're looking into this everyone. The data appears to be correct, so we need to look through a few other areas to see where this issue might be coming from. Kamara is definitely projected above Cohen (for Gottabesweet and Steelwind's posts) so it wouldn't make any sense for that to appear any other way than Kamara > Cohen. 

Some disparities always come into play in the middle of the season because of the bye weeks (some have 11 games left, some 10), but that doesn't appear to be the issue here either. 

Thanks again for the head's up. David, Doug, MT and I are investigating.

 
Bob Henry said:
We're looking into this everyone. The data appears to be correct, so we need to look through a few other areas to see where this issue might be coming from. Kamara is definitely projected above Cohen (for Gottabesweet and Steelwind's posts) so it wouldn't make any sense for that to appear any other way than Kamara > Cohen. 

Some disparities always come into play in the middle of the season because of the bye weeks (some have 11 games left, some 10), but that doesn't appear to be the issue here either. 

Thanks again for the head's up. David, Doug, MT and I are investigating.
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Thank you for the fast response. 

 
The numbers on the web page don't match up with the projections. For example, Kamara is definitely not 121 pts. Nor is Ingram below 100. In fact, looking straight at my projections Kamara (PPR) is just shy of 170 with Ingram coming in at 152.50. You're all correct in that I definitely project taking into account bye weeks, so NO, ATL, DEN, WAS will all appear inflated perhaps, but they also have 11 games to play where others have 10. Or, this week's players would have 10 games projected from me, but no week 6 projections from Dodds, Tremblay, Bloom, Norton, etc. 

Hang tight. My dad has a killer set of tools. We can fix this. :)

 
Bob Henry said:
The numbers on the web page don't match up with the projections. For example, Kamara is definitely not 121 pts. Nor is Ingram below 100. In fact, looking straight at my projections Kamara (PPR) is just shy of 170 with Ingram coming in at 152.50. You're all correct in that I definitely project taking into account bye weeks, so NO, ATL, DEN, WAS will all appear inflated perhaps, but they also have 11 games to play where others have 10. Or, this week's players would have 10 games projected from me, but no week 6 projections from Dodds, Tremblay, Bloom, Norton, etc. 

Hang tight. My dad has a killer set of tools. We can fix this. :)
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This is why FBG's is the best!

One weird thing was Parker vs Thielen.   In PPR it was correct, however in my league settings which are the same, it had Parker higher than Thielen as well.

Look forward to the fix. Thanks again.

 
Walking Boot said:
If there are two players, at the same position, with the same number of games remaining in the season, why is the guy who is projected to score fewer points per game ranked higher than the guy projected to outscore him?

Like: Antonio Brown and AJ Green, for example. AJ projected to score more points ROY and average for games remaining, but, Antonio has more value. AJ on a bye this week, Antonio in week 9, so they both have the same # of games forward, right?

Also, Demaryius Thomas and Davante Parker have the same PPG average. Both are past their bye weeks. But Thomas is rated much higher (and, strangely, projected to score 16 more points than Parker). His value is much higher as a result. Is the bye week for Miami calculating right here?
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It's being worked on. There's a bug. That's the issue that most are seeing. 

 
Bob Henry said:
The numbers on the web page don't match up with the projections. For example, Kamara is definitely not 121 pts. Nor is Ingram below 100. In fact, looking straight at my projections Kamara (PPR) is just shy of 170 with Ingram coming in at 152.50. You're all correct in that I definitely project taking into account bye weeks, so NO, ATL, DEN, WAS will all appear inflated perhaps, but they also have 11 games to play where others have 10. Or, this week's players would have 10 games projected from me, but no week 6 projections from Dodds, Tremblay, Bloom, Norton, etc. 

Hang tight. My dad has a killer set of tools. We can fix this. :)
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I think you mean your dad has an ultimate set of tools! :D

 
Still some weird standard WR rankings:

Desean Jackson- WR11

Keenan Allen - WR24

Larry Fitzgerald - WR33

In PPR:

Jackson - WR20

Allen - WR21

Fitz - WR19

Pretty big swing for Fitz from standard to PPR.

 
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Team Smokin' said:
I believe the reason is he is projected to be a fill in for another 3-4 weeks? Then no value. Phili could opt in or out on Jake?
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Correct. If you combine the two Philly Ks then you'll see a top-level fantasy kicker. If they decide to ride with Elliott, then I'll adjust accordingly. I don't have a read on that situation at the moment, but Elliott is performing well - obviously - so that's within the range of outcomes here. Similar situation with Taveccio/Janikowski in Oakland splitting the projected stats.

 
MattFancy said:
Still some weird standard WR rankings:

Desean Jackson- WR11

Keenan Allen - WR24

Larry Fitzgerald - WR33

In PPR:

Jackson - WR20

Allen - WR21

Fitz - WR19

Pretty big swing for Fitz from standard to PPR.
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Good observations. I've noticed those two, in particular, for a while now and it's not just a forward (ROS) projection thing. Fitz is higher in PPR because he averages such a minuscule YPC and his TD rate is lower than it was earlier in his career. Target-dependent. 

Jackson is the opposite. Fewer targets/catches, but they count because of his insanely high YPC and what I anticipate to be a good TD conversion rate. He has narrowly missed on a few near TDs and I see some of those hitting going forward (Winston's up and down performances notwithstanding).

Also, Jackson benefits from having 11 games remaining - a very good target for trades IMO.

 
I always look at the top 200. It could be very valuable if not always flawed or a mess. I gave this feedback after last season. The top 200 should include commentary (which is better than just formulas).

I wish FBGs would just focus on certain key reports/tools instead of spreading itself thin with a ton of articles that a lot of people don't care about. I would rather it be great at a few things than mediocre at a lot of things. I've been a subscriber since Day 1, but the quality has gotten worse over the years as content has increased.

 
NYRAGE said:
I always look at the top 200. It could be very valuable if not always flawed or a mess. I gave this feedback after last season. The top 200 should include commentary (which is better than just formulas).

I wish FBGs would just focus on certain key reports/tools instead of spreading itself thin with a ton of articles that a lot of people don't care about. I would rather it be great at a few things than mediocre at a lot of things. I've been a subscriber since Day 1, but the quality has gotten worse over the years as content has increased.
Click to expand...
Perhaps our expectations have changed and yes we are flooded with fantasy information and there are more sources and "experts" than ever before. That being said, and perhaps no one really knows, but I would like deeper analysis into these new trends as soon as possible. Players like Kamara, Jones, McKinnon, and the return of Mike Williams. You gotta make bold calls and be correct a majority and percentage of the time. 

I too was a member here since the beginning and it has really helped over the years. Now we are in new times with new info, new sources, quicker analysis. In order to compete one has to keep reinventing themselves. They are getting the basic info out quicker this year. I like how Bloom offers a blurb here and there. Or monitor this and then report back. Folks like us check in and click on things constantly. Every little edge helps us make up our minds and play the best player, trade for the best player, bid on the best player possible

 
NYRAGE said:
I always look at the top 200. It could be very valuable if not always flawed or a mess. I gave this feedback after last season. The top 200 should include commentary (which is better than just formulas).

I wish FBGs would just focus on certain key reports/tools instead of spreading itself thin with a ton of articles that a lot of people don't care about. I would rather it be great at a few things than mediocre at a lot of things. I've been a subscriber since Day 1, but the quality has gotten worse over the years as content has increased.
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That's fair, NYRAGE. I am a direct and open guy, so let me just say, as the person who drives most of the data behind the Top 200, I'm not stretched thin nor do I spend the bulk of my Sundays doing forward projections with anything but my full focus and attention to detail. I've done this for a while and I strive to continually do it better.

That doesn't mean you'll agree with how I project players, teams, or scenarios, though. And that's ok, too. Several people ping me on Twitter or email to ask me about specific situations to get my perspective. I do my best to respond timely to them all. You're most welcome to do that, too. 

Your feedback is always welcome and appreciated. If nothing else, I re-examine a situation to see if I missed something or under/over-reacted to a specific data point in my analysis.

Your larger point is regarding the bulk of the content. It can be overwhelming. We're pretty self-aware on that point, too, and have looked for ways to help folks cut through the noise and have even provided contents to help folks use the MyFBG and other tools on the site better. 

Back to the feedback, I'd love to hear more of your thoughts for improving the Top 200. If your ideas can help us do that we'd be fools not to listen. 

 
Bob Henry said:
That's fair, NYRAGE. I am a direct and open guy, so let me just say, as the person who drives most of the data behind the Top 200, I'm not stretched thin nor do I spend the bulk of my Sundays doing forward projections with anything but my full focus and attention to detail. I've done this for a while and I strive to continually do it better.

That doesn't mean you'll agree with how I project players, teams, or scenarios, though. And that's ok, too. Several people ping me on Twitter or email to ask me about specific situations to get my perspective. I do my best to respond timely to them all. You're most welcome to do that, too. 

Your feedback is always welcome and appreciated. If nothing else, I re-examine a situation to see if I missed something or under/over-reacted to a specific data point in my analysis.

Your larger point is regarding the bulk of the content. It can be overwhelming. We're pretty self-aware on that point, too, and have looked for ways to help folks cut through the noise and have even provided contents to help folks use the MyFBG and other tools on the site better. 

Back to the feedback, I'd love to hear more of your thoughts for improving the Top 200. If your ideas can help us do that we'd be fools not to listen. 
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Bob, thanks for being so open about it and not taking it personally. I gave a ton of feedback when the surveys came out after last season. I don't mind sharing it again (of course It wouldn't be the same that I wrote several months ago as I didn't save it). I've been a customer since the beginning. I have always loved this site. I always thought it was the best in the business up until maybe when you guys started covering DFS. Then it felt like you guys got spread too thin trying to please everyone. I'm a big auction and IDP guy and would love to see more content, but I also understand that it's not mainstream enough.

Honestly imo though, the quality isn't as great as it used to be. DFS sites have taken the analysis to another level imo. If you want to look at weekly line-ups, it's better to use a DFS site imo. Sites like the FantasyGuru provides a sentence or three on each player in their weekly and seasonal rankings.

It seems as if the rankings on this site are pretty conservative. You'll have 20-30 players within a point or two. To me, the rankings don't help much. I rather read your insights on the rankings. I've been playing for 25 years, so your ranking won't determine my actions, but I will incorporate your insights to make my own decision. Just plain rankings based on rest of season scores or other formulas don't mean a thing to me to be honest.

I probably get more out of the discussions on the forums than anything else. There are lots of good posters that make good points (as well as some that also make bad points imo).

I've come close to leaving the past couple of years, but I guess I've always been called brand loyal and keep coming back. If I think about it, I subscribed again because of the Excel tool for the VBD Excel app and the MYFBG app that helps me organize myself for multiple leagues. There are some content articles that I read every week, but a lot of it is filler to me. Anyway, I can probably go on, but I've got to run out. Feel free to follow up with any questions/thoughts.

 
Team Smokin' said:
Perhaps our expectations have changed and yes we are flooded with fantasy information and there are more sources and "experts" than ever before. That being said, and perhaps no one really knows, but I would like deeper analysis into these new trends as soon as possible. Players like Kamara, Jones, McKinnon, and the return of Mike Williams. You gotta make bold calls and be correct a majority and percentage of the time. 

I too was a member here since the beginning and it has really helped over the years. Now we are in new times with new info, new sources, quicker analysis. In order to compete one has to keep reinventing themselves. They are getting the basic info out quicker this year. I like how Bloom offers a blurb here and there. Or monitor this and then report back. Folks like us check in and click on things constantly. Every little edge helps us make up our minds and play the best player, trade for the best player, bid on the best player possible
Click to expand...
well said

 
tangfoot said:
I think it's more likely that your expectations have changed as there is more freely-available information today.
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You may have a point about expectations. Perhaps what I mean is that I see other sites improving while this site hasn't changed rather than this content getting worse. Something for me to think about.

 
tangfoot said:
I think it's more likely that your expectations have changed as there is more freely-available information today.
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No.  The quality of content has been declining for several years.  I call it the assumption of rational analysis.

 
I usually lean on Bob Henry's rankings but IMO the top 200 going forward is better for identifying available free agents in your league rather than useful true rankings. K Allen is #21 WR in PPR??? I thought he would be top 10 in PPR and went to Fantasy Pros to get another viewpoint and he is 8 there. 

Not trying to be a negative nelly but for the last 3 years or so this never has seemed like a good barometer for full season value??? 

 
Something waaayyy off about the TE values. Wouldn't a TE with more projected points ROS (in bold) be MORE valuable than a WR or RB projected to score LESS?

140 Nelson AgholorWRPHI / 10 4.9 49.1 4.5 6.7

141 John BrownWRARI / 8 5.3 48.7 4.5 6.6

142 Orleans Darkwa RBNYG / 8 2.9 30.0 2.7 6.6

143 Chris IvoryRBJAX / 8 3.5  29.0 2.7 6.5

144 Taylor GabrielWRATL / 5 5.0 48.1 4.4 6.5

145 Jeremy MaclinWRBAL / 10 4.9 48.0 4.4 6.4

146 Jamison CrowderWRWAS / 5 5.2 47.7 4.4 6.4

147 Tyrell WilliamsWRLAC / 9 5.1 47.3 4.4 6.3

148 Zach ErtzTEPHI / 10 7.0 54.7 5.1 6.2

 
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yellowdog said:
Something waaayyy off about the TE values. Wouldn't a TE with more projected points ROS (in bold) be MORE valuable than a WR or RB projected to score LESS?

140 Nelson AgholorWRPHI / 10 4.9 49.1 4.5 6.7

141 John BrownWRARI / 8 5.3 48.7 4.5 6.6

142 Orleans Darkwa RBNYG / 8 2.9 30.0 2.7 6.6

143 Chris IvoryRBJAX / 8 3.5  29.0 2.7 6.5

144 Taylor GabrielWRATL / 5 5.0 48.1 4.4 6.5

145 Jeremy MaclinWRBAL / 10 4.9 48.0 4.4 6.4

146 Jamison CrowderWRWAS / 5 5.2 47.7 4.4 6.4

147 Tyrell WilliamsWRLAC / 9 5.1 47.3 4.4 6.3

148 Zach ErtzTEPHI / 10 7.0 54.7 5.1 6.2
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Even the kickers are messed up.  Denver's kicker has had his bye and is projected more points this week and rest of the year than many ahead of him.

 
dmac37 said:
I usually lean on Bob Henry's rankings but IMO the top 200 going forward is better for identifying available free agents in your league rather than useful true rankings. K Allen is #21 WR in PPR??? I thought he would be top 10 in PPR and went to Fantasy Pros to get another viewpoint and he is 8 there. 

Not trying to be a negative nelly but for the last 3 years or so this never has seemed like a good barometer for full season value??? 
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That one still is odd. ESPN's ROS rankings have Allen as WR8. That's a pretty big difference between WR8 and WR21. He's 4th in yards, tied for 8th in catches, and tied for 3rd in targets. I'm not sure how that translates to WR21. I know the TDs haven't been there for him so far, but with the amount of targets he sees, that could change.

It definitely favors guys that have had their byes already. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are both top 12 WRs going forward? I'm not sure I buy that.

 
MattFancy said:
That one still is odd. ESPN's ROS rankings have Allen as WR8. That's a pretty big difference between WR8 and WR21. He's 4th in yards, tied for 8th in catches, and tied for 3rd in targets. I'm not sure how that translates to WR21. I know the TDs haven't been there for him so far, but with the amount of targets he sees, that could change.

It definitely favors guys that have had their byes already. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are both top 12 WRs going forward? I'm not sure I buy that.
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Some guys with bye's it favors and others it doesn't.

It shows Denver's kicker with 9.1 points this week and about 95 rest of year.  The 4 ahead of him all have less than 9.1 points this week and less than 95 for rest of season.  He should be multiple spots higher.  @Bob Henry Has any of this been fixed yet? Only thing I noticed was Kamara being fixed.  @David Dodds 

 
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