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Or a RB4 could be a guy with upside- Damien Harris, Austin Ekeler, Justice Hill, etc. (talking redraft obviously). With Barber if everything goes right and he gets the job outright and is top 15 in NFL touches and TB is in the top half of scoring/yards then you have yourself ~RB36 in ppg. If anything goes slightly wrong then we are talking about waiver wire fodder. I just don’t see the appeal.
LOL. Well it’s sort of about him. How Barber does certainly impacts Rojo’s value.
You seem to be completely disregarding the fact that they have a major upgrade in coaching this year. IMO Barber's ceiling is much higher than RB36 with Arians at the helm (same goes for Jones or anyone else who may end up as their RB1).
Why? He was 12th in touches, 11th in RB snaps, Tampa was 3rd in yards, 12th in points scored. I don’t see a lot of room for improvement.
You gave an obvious one yourself, being 3rd in yards but only 12th in points. Barber led the team with 5 rushing TDs, don't you think that has plenty of room for improvement? He also only had 20 receptions for less than 100 yards, seems to me that there is quite a bit of room for improvement there as well.
There's nothing on Barber's history in the NFL or college to make me assume he can greatly increase he receptions or that he adds much of anything to the passing game. I do agree that he could score more TDs and Tampa could be more efficient on offense. I would be curious to see Arians historical plays, yards, etd. during his time in Arizona.
Forget about the specific player for a minute, just look at the numbers- Barber added a bit over 2 ppg from the receiving game last year in full PPR. Do you think that is near the top or bottom of the league for starting RBs? IMO there is far more upside than downside from that level simply because it's such a low baseline.
If he winds up with 30 catches for 225 yards and 2 TDs, that would still likely be near the bottom of the barrel for starting RBs, but would give him ~30 more points in PPR over last season. If any of these RBs ends up being the bellcow next year, I would consider that to be a conservative projection (never mind ceiling) considering they should again be one of the best offenses in the league.
That's reductio ad absurdum, and you know it. The point is you can learn more about a player from 591 carries in college than 23 carries in the pros.
The biggest knock imo on Jones was he’s a smaller speed back with no pass catching chops and an immature unprofessional attitude.
I disagree. You can learn a lot about a college player looking at 591 carries in college. Just because a running back was successful in college does not equal success in the NFL. Going into a rookie season, sure it's all we have and we do our best with that information.a Once a guy gets to the pros, we learn a lot about that player as they get professional reps (or even if they fail to get reps to JAG). Especially RBs.
He was for sure near the bottom when it comes to a feature RB adding points in the passing game. So you are right there is room to grow. He was also near the bottom in college in target share though there is also room to be think maybe he just isn't a threat as a receiver. Last year had 3 drops on 29 targets while averaging 4.6 yards per catch (115th among NFL RBs). Some backs just can't contribute in the passing game besides the occassional dump off.
Sure but they were in one of the best offenses in the league last year as well. Tampa was 8th in drives, 6 in yards/drive, 12th in points/drive. There is room to improve but also room not fall back. Arians is a well respected HC but I am not convinced he can make this offense even more productive. Courtsey of Pro Football Reference, we can look at where his offenses have ranked percentile was from his years as OC and HC:
No-one is arguing that just because a college player is successful they are going to be successful in the pros. That's a statement of the obvious, a given. You don't need to keep repeating it.
Barber barely saw the field his freshman year and then entered the draft after his sophomore season, so it's hard for me to put too much stock in the fact that he didn't catch a ton of passes- college offenses are way different, their offense was very run heavy. If you want to put stock in that season though, he did rush for 13 TDs in the SEC, so that should put a damper on the thought that he is not good in short yardage (as well as his scouting reports saying otherwise).
I would say NFL carries are a better representation of NFL potential than college carries are of NFL potential.
The point is that he hardly played last season so we genuinely don't know at this point how he will fare in the NFL.Dr. Dan said:
you're making my point for me... he didnt play much last year.... in favor of undrafted Peyton Barber
The only RB I am aware of is Melvin Gordon. Others maybe were behind an established starter.
Sure, but he wasn't a healthy scratch by accident. The coaches saw him suck in practice then watched him suck on the field. That practice suckage is a relevant part of the sample size. You have to add his practice suckage to his on field suckage to get his total suckage portfolio.
That argument only works if you trust the judgement of the Bucs coaches. Coaches are not infallible, they are not the Pope. And that Tampa Bay staff in particular were not always blessed with wisdom.
Same point as above - it depends if the coaches got it right.
I agree, coaches arent mistake proof, but man you are really reaching on this.
The problem with that statement is Arians has consistently pumped up Barber as well and has already called him the starter.
They were at least wise enough to know that if they do not win football games their jobs were in jeopardy. If they thought playing Jones would help them win they would have done so.
Of that entire list only one RB went on to have a "great" career.
The flaw in your alternate universe is we got to see Rojo gain 77 yards on 30 touches. It only took Chubb 8 touches to reach 104 yards.
This analogy doesn’t work because Jones wasn’t the superior talent to Barber. Jones actually looked terrible in the preseason and regular season that’s why he didn’t get carries not because his coach was stubborn.
Well, 3 of the guys on the list are still playing in the NFL, so their careers aren't over. I was just making a point that sometimes a player will have an awful rookie year, and still end up with a decent career (both in terms of actual NFL success, or in the case of Spiller in certain leagues, actual fantasy success). I'm not making the claim that Jones is going to go on to have a "great" NFL career by any means. But a few 1,000+ yard from scrimmage seasons could happen.
I think you could add guys like Ray Rice and Lesean McCoy to your list as well as they did not look all that great as rookies before becoming upper tier RBs as soon as year 2. However Jones was historically bad as a rookie to the point that he could not even get carries at the expense of journeyman level RBs (and sorry but the "stubborn" HC theory does not apply here). He looked horrible in the preseason and when he got in-season carries. A HC fighting for his job isn't going to choose an undrafted RB over his team's second round pick unless he absolutely has to.
I think you're missing #3- their physical gifts just dont translate to the NFL. Big fish in a little pond vs big fish in a big pond.Miro Z said:
Jones coming out of college definitely had rumors around him that he was immature, difficult to work with and not committed to the sport. Now maybe his rookie year was a wake-up call and he changed. He added 12 pounds- now maybe that is muscle because he totally committed to his body or maybe it's not muscle and his lazy habits have continued. I am very skeptical here.Miro Z said:
Damn, missed that. If I would have known that, I would have taken Chubb over him in the draft. Hopefully this past season was a wakeup call. If he doesn't get it together, he will be a part of the stat of 'average # of years in an NFL career'.
I think there's a hundred percent chance that he will be part of the stat of 'average # of years in an NFL career'.
Just rumors- often they amount to nothing. I’m only inclined to fully believe them now after seeing how his rookie year went. He’s super young so he has that going for him- more room to mature.
Disagree here, he's a sunk cost at this point if you drafted him high. If you own him you just ride it out, if he makes something of himself then great your patience paid off, if he continues on his current trajectory you cut bait after this year. The amount you'd get for him from a "blip" isn't worth it.
Can sell him probably for a 2020 2nd, maybe even a projected high 2nd. I'd take that in a second if I had Jones. problem is no one wants to give up on a 1st round draft pick after 1 season like that. 3 months from now he could be only worth a 3rd, or worth nothing however
