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RB Ronald Jones, Cowboys (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Football Jones
- Start date
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Here is the average total plays over the last 10 seasons.
2017 1013
2016 1023
2015 1030
2014 1024
2013 1040
2012 1028
2011 1018
2010 1010
2009 1007
2008 990
9 out of 10 of these seasons teams have averaged over 1000 plays. I do not think that is pushing the boundaries of realism at all. It is the reality.
The average number of total plays over the last 10 seasons has been 1018 plays. The average of the last 3 seasons has been 1022 plays.
The average number of total plays for the Bucs over the last 3 seasons is 1039.
The average number of total plays for the Bucs with Dirk Koetter as the head coach the last two seasons has been 1050.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
What I meant was that you’re not getting 1100 or 1200 plays. You’ve said yourself you’d have Winston at an estimated 50 carries. Even if you reduce that to 30 where is Jones getting 220-250 carries? He’s not. The Bucs will make try to get over 600 attempts if they have a healthy Winston this year. There are very few scenarios I see that not happening.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I already stated the math from the spotlight thread.
Buccaneers offense the last 3 seasons:
2017 1035 plays 605pa 390ra
2016 1066 plays 578pa 453ra
2015 1017 plays 535pa 455ra (Doug Martin 288ra 44 targets. Winstons rookie year)
3 year average 1039 plays 573pa 433ra (this leaves 33 plays unaccounted for.(sacks)
This is not 1100 or more offensive plays. It is based on 1039 which is the Buccaneers 3 year average.
2015 Winston was a rookie and Lovie Smith was the head coach. So if you want to discard that, seems reasonable to me.
1050 plays is what they have averaged the last two seasons.591 pass attempts 421 rushing attempts. 38 sacks = 1050 plays.
60% of the rushing attempts = 253 to me this is a bit high because Ronald Jones is a rookie.
240 rushing attempts 1008 yards 33 receptions 246 yards 6 TD which is using average numbers for the catch rate, yards per carry and yards per reception for RB.
591 pass attempts is very close to 600.
You are misguided to use the Falcons offense from 2013 and 2014 as part of your projection for their offense just because Dirk Koetter was the OC in those seasons.
For one the Falcons have completely different personnel than the Buccaneers.
Two I don't think we need more than 3 seasons by which to form a projection, and the most recent 3 seasons being the most relevant to right now. This is what I used in my previous projection, however Winston being a rookie and Lovie Smith being the head coach makes the 2015 more questionable. So using only the last two seasons seems more appropriate.
Three the Falcons threw the ball as much as they did in 2013-2014 because their lead RB was Steven Jackson who had declined and only played in 12 games 2013 and 15 games in 2014. He did not play well and did not have 200 attempts in either of those seasons. The other RB the Falcons had was Rodgers who is only a COP and did not do all that much. Freeman was a rookie in 2014 and he only had 50 or so rushing attempts. He was not ready for a big role at that time.
So using those passing attempts in your average is giving you data that I do not think is applicable to the Buccaneers in 2018.
Bojang0301
Omar4Heisman
I definitely disagree about being “misguided” to use Atlanta’s stats. If anything Koetter’s aggression after Lovie left is significant reason to reference it. Also my averages included one year of Jacksonville data which skewed it back down toward being more balanced. The trends suggest otherwise though. To suggest Barber would end up being at less than 100 carries (which you are knowingly or unknowingly because as long as Rodgers is on the team it seems he has a minimum threshold) does not register with me. I do not believe Jones will see short yardage work. I believe you’ve also been critical of Barber’s play but I posted a link in the player thread showing that Barber was above average in consistency, averaging 1-5 yards on 62% of his carries last year. Which, per Graham Barfield, comes this quote on Jones: “Still, Jones struggled to be a sustaining runner as just 22 percent of his runs created five or more yards (fourth-worst figure in Yards Created history).” I think the best case scenario is you hope Rodgers gets cut and frees up ~50 carries and a 60/40 split for Jones but I think maybe even then it ends up less than that.
Tampa Bay Times staff writer Rick Stroud wrote about the Bucs' first- and second-year players and surmised that second-round rookie running back Ronald Jones "could post the biggest numbers since he should get 15 to 20 touches per game." That would translate out to 240-320 touches in a 16-game season, which is a substantial workload for a rookie rusher that is expected to also cede some carries to Peyton Barber and passing-down work to Charles Sims.
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bucs/2018/06/16/bucs-journal-o-j-howard-poised-to-take-off/
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/news/163912/ronald-jones-ii-.php
http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/bucs/2018/06/16/bucs-journal-o-j-howard-poised-to-take-off/
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/news/163912/ronald-jones-ii-.php
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah I don't get why you would use Jacksonville stats for run/pass ratios either for the same reason that I don't see why you would use Atlanta.
If there were not already 3 seasons of Dirk being the OC and HC with the Bucs, then sure I could understand wanting to use some of that data just so it wasn't all based on 2017 data. Otherwise I think you are just getting further from the recent data with completely different personnel.
I would usually only do this for a coach who is new to a team as there wouldn't be data from their current team to try to draw on for that.
I don't think Peyton Barber is much of a threat to Jones opportunity. It wouldn't surprise me if he does get some work early on in the season if Jones doesn't blow him away during training camp but I don't think Barber is a special player at all. I may be wrong about that as I haven't spent much time learning about him as my initial impression of him didn't warrant that. The stats you posted regarding him were not compelling to me at all. I just saw a small sample size of him gaining 1 to 5 yards consistently and said so what?
How many times does a team find themselves in short yardage situations over the course of a game and a season? It is a pretty small percentage of the total rushing attempts. I am not assuming that Jones is ill equipped to be used in those situations anyways.
Rodgers hasn't had a very significant role in the offense except for in 2016 when Doug Martin only played 8 games and Sims only played in 7 games that year. Barber was a rookie that season. It seems pretty clear that Rogers is behind Barber on the depth chart. Rogers has barely been involved as a receiver in Tampa Bay as well. He hasn't been used like that since he was younger and in Atlanta where the starter was injured and not performing well. He had 64 rushing attempts last season. Not very much.
Charles Sims had 47 targets for the Bucs last season, Rogers had 11. Sims seems like the more likely COP for passing downs where they do not have Jones in the game.
With my projection of Jones getting 240 rushing attempts. If we assume that Winston runs the ball 50 times that is 290. This leaves 131 rushing attempts for the other RB. I would guess that Barber gets a majority of those based on his use last season. Rogers and Sims not very much unless Jones or Barber are injured.
If there were not already 3 seasons of Dirk being the OC and HC with the Bucs, then sure I could understand wanting to use some of that data just so it wasn't all based on 2017 data. Otherwise I think you are just getting further from the recent data with completely different personnel.
I would usually only do this for a coach who is new to a team as there wouldn't be data from their current team to try to draw on for that.
I don't think Peyton Barber is much of a threat to Jones opportunity. It wouldn't surprise me if he does get some work early on in the season if Jones doesn't blow him away during training camp but I don't think Barber is a special player at all. I may be wrong about that as I haven't spent much time learning about him as my initial impression of him didn't warrant that. The stats you posted regarding him were not compelling to me at all. I just saw a small sample size of him gaining 1 to 5 yards consistently and said so what?
How many times does a team find themselves in short yardage situations over the course of a game and a season? It is a pretty small percentage of the total rushing attempts. I am not assuming that Jones is ill equipped to be used in those situations anyways.
Rodgers hasn't had a very significant role in the offense except for in 2016 when Doug Martin only played 8 games and Sims only played in 7 games that year. Barber was a rookie that season. It seems pretty clear that Rogers is behind Barber on the depth chart. Rogers has barely been involved as a receiver in Tampa Bay as well. He hasn't been used like that since he was younger and in Atlanta where the starter was injured and not performing well. He had 64 rushing attempts last season. Not very much.
Charles Sims had 47 targets for the Bucs last season, Rogers had 11. Sims seems like the more likely COP for passing downs where they do not have Jones in the game.
With my projection of Jones getting 240 rushing attempts. If we assume that Winston runs the ball 50 times that is 290. This leaves 131 rushing attempts for the other RB. I would guess that Barber gets a majority of those based on his use last season. Rogers and Sims not very much unless Jones or Barber are injured.
Borden
Footballguy
I find it odd that Jones is being knocked by so many as a guy who won’t get a big work (and ADP reflects this).
Penny went 11 picks before Jones and so many people at pencilling him in as a workhorse. Carson won out that spot last year and performed decently until injured.
Then you have Michel who went to a notoriously RBBC team with a bunch guys that have had at least some level of production.
Penny went 11 picks before Jones and so many people at pencilling him in as a workhorse. Carson won out that spot last year and performed decently until injured.
Then you have Michel who went to a notoriously RBBC team with a bunch guys that have had at least some level of production.
BigTex
Don't mess with Texas
Borden
Footballguy
Who’s driving this hype train??? Only 2 posts since June 18th. Let’s get it together. 
Uptick in work with 1st team.
Uptick in work with 1st team.
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DocHolliday
Footballguy
Pass pro may keep this kid off the field for a while. another messy backfield to try to figure out.
Travis May@FF_TravisM
I keep getting this question on #Titans #Buccaneers practice, so I’ll just reiterate:
Peyton Barber is 100% the lead back right now. Ronald Jones II is the two.
RoJo is definitely faster, but Barber looks much better in receiving game and overall.
1:22 PM - Aug 16, 2018
I keep getting this question on #Titans #Buccaneers practice, so I’ll just reiterate:
Peyton Barber is 100% the lead back right now. Ronald Jones II is the two.
RoJo is definitely faster, but Barber looks much better in receiving game and overall.
1:22 PM - Aug 16, 2018
The Captain
Footballguy
He’s a great buy low for dynasty. Impatient owners wanting production this year will panic. Maybe the kid is slow to learn but he has the talent. Give him a year.
Stealthycat
Footballguy
Streetduck
Footballguy
Interseptopus
Footballguy
Maybe. I doubt anyone who drafted him is going to panic and sell now for a discount. At this point you may as well hold him and hope he's better in 2019 or can earn some time in 2018 with practice
I think this preseason has been a very sobering event for many so far with this rookie class. Only going to get worse. 2018 =/= 2017 class, something many of us were saying a while ago as people were reaching for these RBs and allowing some amazing WRs to fall.
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barackdhouse
Footballguy
I'm willing to sell for a discount. But I'd have to really like the other side. If I like someone more than market.
Interseptopus
Footballguy
What value do you place on Jones? I feel like he went often around 1.5-1.7. Not sure what value he'd be at now? 2nd round value? It's possible he may not be taken round 1 in rookie drafts now.
August FBG value chart has him at 14, above Henry, Coleman, Ingram. I imagine he would be around Cohen, Lewis, Collins maybe now? There's still long term value but I would have sold RoJo in a second for a guy like Henry or Coleman 3 weeks ago. Now I don't think you could get that
Ilov80s
Footballguy
Right, we see Guice is just always going to be an injury waiting to happen with that violent running style. Saquon will have a big play here and there but for the most part he can't run inside. Chubb is too slow for the NFL. Jones has greasy potatoes for hands. Hines is an athlete but not a football player. Penny can't even win the job out over Chris Carson- a player literally nobody had heard of a year ago and who has 0 career rushing TDs, Sony Michel has a degenerative knee condition. Royce Freeman and Kerryon Johnson are the last hope left for this RB draft class.Dr. Dan said:
Obviously I am joking but it really has been a dreadful start.
barackdhouse
Footballguy
My rookie drafts were in May and he went between 1.03 and 1.06. I would say late 1st today. I'd take Moore, Sutton and Miller above him today. And Barkley, Guice, Chubb, Kerryon, Freeman, Penny as well. That puts him at 1.10 with Sony still available. Honestly I probably go Goedert or attempt to trade for a future 1st there. So........maybe 1.12 then?Dr. Dan said:
Henry in a heartbeat. Coleman is closer but I'd still auto accept. I feel I completely balked on Jones and am willing to take a loss on him if it is mitigated vs holding for too long.
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Interseptopus
Footballguy
Yeah a bit over the top but it's a far cry from everyone in the top 6 or 7 thinking they had the next Dalvin Cook or Kareem Hunt. I had a guy wanting two 1st round picks for Penny or Freeman immediately following the draft.
I think there is some significant hope for this group yet, but a more typical wait period than what we saw in 2017.
FWIW I would buy RoJo at the right price. I own 2 high 2nds next year, not sure if I'd be willing to part with one of those, but maybe. I do own Barber so that would be a pretty nice duo. It would give me some high potential for future seasons.
Pimpin Ain't Easy
Footballguy
Once he makes a few big plays things will change quickly.
ILUVBEER99
Footballguy
yup. In dynasty he's still in that top 8 RB grouping. I still don't see much difference between the 2-8 guys after Barkley.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
I like Barber and don’t like Jones that much but I think it’s very possible Barber proves to be pedestrian. He’s a solid grinder type. Nothing special - I like him based on potential volume this year but don’t think he’s a long term solution for the Bucs.
squistion
Footballguy
Proves to be pedestrian? I though he already demonstrated that he was. If Barber were the answer the Bucs wouldn't have invested the pick they did on Jones.
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Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
Maybe - but then again they did invest in Jones and yet Barber beat him out in camp.
The Man With No Name
Footballguy
Everyone and every team knows they got to have more than one guy that can run the ball effectively.
Avery
Footballguy
Not news here, but people love to dig in to their initial impression/prognostications.
No, a few very poor performances in per-season, and a poor camp this far, is not the death knell for his career, but it is not a good start and he should rightfully be moved down anybody's draft list.
No, a few very poor performances in per-season, and a poor camp this far, is not the death knell for his career, but it is not a good start and he should rightfully be moved down anybody's draft list.
