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FanDuel week 7 (1 Viewer)

I am feeling some deja vu.  Podcasts keep bringing up Huntley as an option vs. NO.  I know they have better weapons, but it feels like last week when everybody was talking going cheap with Hogan (and I got sucked in). 

 
FatNate said:
I just reviewed the optimizer, and to no surprise, there was Russell Wilson staring back at me with one of the best H-value ratings on the main slate.  Guy screws me every time I use him!  Can someone help me decide if I need to work him in the mix this week?  I like some of his weapons this week (Graham, Lockett, and Richardson) and I do not expect them to run well.  But, man he gets me every time I roster him!
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I just "x" him out every week. Certain players are dead to me. He is one of them. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
We have seen in the past few years that the Pats WANT to run the ball, it just hasn't been working that way this year for whatever reason.
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Because the Pats aren't a good football team, especially on defense. They are living on reputation alone (it's admittedly a very good, very earned reputation), but if you watch them, they can't run the ball consistently and have trouble stopping people.   

 
Megla said:
Yuck, I don't see anything about this week that looks appealing, may limit entries this week in both cash and GPP.  Just seems like everything is middle of the road.

Just looked at Thur-Mon slate for both Cash and GPP, keep coming back to Wentz/Palmer/Brady for cash and I don't really like any.  At RB there are a ton of options I like but some MT and DD are high on I don't like at all, Hyde/McCoy/Ingram

Gonna take a break from looking/reading for the rest of the day, just get the feeling this week is going to be dangerous to my bankroll.
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I thought the same thing a couple weeks ago.  I didn't like anything.  Cut back my play...won every contest I entered.  Last week I felt really good about my lineup.  Thought it was a sure thing...lost every contest I entered.   :wall:

 
running with two unconventional stacks for Thu-Mon slate...

Ben / AB / Bryant + Hunt, Ajai, Keenan Allen, Hooper, Hauschka, Dolphins

Mariotta / Walker + Freeman, Peterson, Julio, Cooks, Gostkowski, Vikings

 
KarmaPolice said:
The way this slate works out and my recent run has me avoiding cash this week.  Just going to do $5-6 in some 25cent and $1 stuff to try to get my mojo back. 

Here is my current placeholder as a gpp that I liked:

Ryan - ADP/Zeke - M.Thomas/AJG/Amendola - Hooper - Hauschka - 4.4 or lower D.

IF I remember right, Atl funnels action to the middle of the field and defends the perimeter well, so I am leaning away from Cooks and Hogan and more on Gronk/Amendola/D.Lewis for the Pats.  For Atl, I will try Julio, Hooper (more if Sanu is out), and the 2 RBs.

Game theory also says of my 10-12 LUs, I probably want to fade the game completely or just take a PK/D on a small %.  We have seen a few spots that look like shootouts that have dudded this year already. 
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I think Hogan runs enough across the middle and lines up I n different places. That is why I prefer him over Cooks, not to mention the cost savings. I am a Bengals guy. Who-Dey!  And I would love nothing more than to see AJG have a huge day. I think the targets will be there, but I don't think they lead to production. Hope I am wrong, but I believe this Bengals/Steelers game is low scoring and a grind it out type. Why do you like AJG this week?  

 
KarmaPolice said:
I am feeling some deja vu.  Podcasts keep bringing up Huntley as an option vs. NO.  I know they have better weapons, but it feels like last week when everybody was talking going cheap with Hogan (and I got sucked in). 
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Cheap at QB works sometimes.  McCown hit 3x value at 1.2% ownership for me in the big $7 GPP last week.  Too bad the bums I partnered with him did nothing!

 
FatNate said:
I think Hogan runs enough across the middle and lines up I n different places. That is why I prefer him over Cooks, not to mention the cost savings. I am a Bengals guy. Who-Dey!  And I would love nothing more than to see AJG have a huge day. I think the targets will be there, but I don't think they lead to production. Hope I am wrong, but I believe this Bengals/Steelers game is low scoring and a grind it out type. Why do you like AJG this week?  
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He was hurt last year for one of the games, but I thought he usually had decent success vs. the Steelers historically.  I also think he has better splits on the road vs. home if I remember correctly.  Also, I thought it might be a bit of a leverage play if everybody is focused on Bell, Brown, and the NE/Atl game, studs like AJG, M.Thomas and Evans might be a little lower owned.

 
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FatNate said:
Cheap at QB works sometimes.  McCown hit 3x value at 1.2% ownership for me in the big $7 GPP last week.  Too bad the bums I partnered with him did nothing!
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Oh for sure.  I think sometimes we (I) need to step back and take a macro look at the situation too.  Backup Cleveland Qb on the road with nobody to throw to vs. home QB vs the worst D in the league.  Yeah, in hindsight McCown was the better play. 

I am sure that is why he has been mentioned a bit.  NO still gives up yards, should score a bit, and GB is at home and still has WR talent.  They were also bringing up Hogan again at home vs. a terrible pass D too. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
He was hurt last year for one of the games, but I thought he usually had decent success vs. the Steelers historically.  I also think he has better splits on the road vs. home if I remember correctly.  Also, I thought it might be a bit of a leverage play if everybody is focused on Bell, Brown, and the NE/Atl game, studs like AJG, M.Thomas and Evans might be a little lower owned.
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Thanks for the AJG feedback. I also like M Thomas and Evans. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
Oh for sure.  I think sometimes we (I) need to step back and take a macro look at the situation too.  Backup Cleveland Qb on the road with nobody to throw to vs. home QB vs the worst D in the league.  Yeah, in hindsight McCown was the better play. 

I am sure that is why he has been mentioned a bit.  NO still gives up yards, should score a bit, and GB is at home and still has WR talent.  They were also bringing up Hogan again at home vs. a terrible pass D too. 
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I don't get me wrong. I lost on Hogan last week too. I am a sucker for the cheap QB. I think it is a good way to differentiate, but can be risky. 

 
We always look at matchups, but this week I decided to dig a little deeper.  I wanted to see which defenses are giving up the most fantasy points (based on FanDuel’s scoring) by position.  Please keep in mind these are just numbers.  How you interrupt them is up to you and I would recommend everyone validate these numbers with your own research techniques.  Here is what I found:

Most fantasy points allowed:

QB:  Patriots – 25, Bucs – 22, Browns – 21, Cardinals – 21, & Colts -21

RB:  Rams – 29, 49ers – 27, Patriots – 26, Colts – 25, & Jets – 25

WR:  Bucs – 40, Chiefs – 33, Eagles – 33, Patriots – 33, & Cardinals – 33

TE:  Giants – 17, Browns – 16, Patriots – 14, Redskins – 14, & Broncos/Ravens – 13

Least fantasy points allowed:

QB:  Jaguars – 9, Steelers – 11, Bills – 12, Seahawks – 13, & Vikings – 13

RB:  Broncos – 13, Vikings – 14, Texans – 17, Eagles – 17, & Panthers – 17

WR:  Steelers – 16, Ravens – 18, Jaguars – 19, Redskins – 19, & Bengals – 20

TE:  49ers – 5, Chargers – 6, Packers – 6, Bengals – 7, Steelers/Ravens – 8

So, now we have the numbers…what can we learn from them?  Here are some of my thoughts:

·         I need to reconsider Tyrod and his receivers.  It is a great matchup and good cost saving stack.

·         I need to reconsider Goff.  It is a great matchup and I like him with Kupp.  Peterson will lock down Watkins, which should increase Kupp’s targets.

·         I just threw up a little bit in my mouth…but, is Bortles rosterable this week?

·         The Bills ranking against the QB has me reconsidering my TB plays.

·         Elliott and Fournette are must plays, if you want to spend the money.

·         Based on his play last week and usage, AP is still way too cheap.

·         Both Freeman/Coleman should be considered this week.

·         Ajayi rose from the dead last week and appears to have a good matchup.  He burned me a few weeks back in a similar spot.  Can he be trusted this week?

·         Broncos ranking is not scaring me off Gordon.

·         Graham and Walker are in great spots this week at low/reasonable pricing, but I also like Hooper, Henry, and Rudolph who are in good spots.

·         49ers defense is not good, but they are great against the TE.  Witten is not in play this way.

 
I am a Bengals guy, so please keep that in mind when I speak about there players.  Based on my experience and research this game sets up to be low scoring.  Two divisional oppenents that know each other well and both have respectable defenses.  Give me under the 41.5pts.  I am fearful that the Bengals run defense may not hold up against Bell.  I am also worried with several secondary injuries that could impact covering AB.  But, the Bengals defense is for real and has performed very good this year, even in the first few weeks when the offense was awful.  I think I am avoiding this game totally, but if I was going to use players I would take my chances with Brown.  I would not pay up for Bell, because I like to many other RBs this week with far better matchups.  The other person I would consider is Mixon, but the O-line is bad and he is in a shared carries role.

 
I like ajayi this week, got his groove back a little and could easily find the end zone once if not twice this week.

 
Gpp stab

ryan/ajayi/adp/Landry/hogan/

hardy/gronk/lutz/saints

pairing ryan with hardy, running hogan/gronk back, with target monster Landry, workhorse rbs with good matchups

 
FatNate said:
We always look at matchups, but this week I decided to dig a little deeper.  I wanted to see which defenses are giving up the most fantasy points (based on FanDuel’s scoring) by position.  Please keep in mind these are just numbers.  How you interrupt them is up to you and I would recommend everyone validate these numbers with your own research techniques.  Here is what I found:

Most fantasy points allowed:

QB:  Patriots – 25, Bucs – 22, Browns – 21, Cardinals – 21, & Colts -21

RB:  Rams – 29, 49ers – 27, Patriots – 26, Colts – 25, & Jets – 25

WR:  Bucs – 40, Chiefs – 33, Eagles – 33, Patriots – 33, & Cardinals – 33

TE:  Giants – 17, Browns – 16, Patriots – 14, Redskins – 14, & Broncos/Ravens – 13
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This is usually where I start my research on the week because that info starts coming out on Monday and it gives me something to do.  I usually just quickly list the 10 teams that are giving up the most pts/g on the year. 

The highlighted is where I look to get any initial quick stack ideas.  Pats stink everywhere, so that's why you could pair Ryan with anybody on the team.  Browns give it up to QB and TE, so enter Mariota+Walker.   I think the other two need discussion and dig deep.  I assume this is a big reason people are on Tyrod this week, but again, WTF does he have to throw to to take advantage of the soft Bucs D vs. the WRs?  As far as AZ goes, we know Peterson will take somebody out, so we have to look at the other WRs for Goff, so maybe Kupp or Woods might be in play.   We also have to take into account that the London games seem to be as unpredictable and sloppy as the TNF games

Others that were in the top 10 that had a QB + WR/TE matchup show up in the top 10 each were:  Dak + WR, Cousins + WR, Clev QB + WR, Hundley + WR, and SF QB + WR.    I highlighted my faves.  Long story short, I try to quickly look at the matchups and see if there is anything on the other side I might want to roll out to take advantage.  IF you don't want roll out the stack, at least you know that guys like Tyrod, Kupp, GB WRs, or Garcon might warrant a deeper look. 

As far as RBs go, I try to dig a little deeper as well.  We know that the Rams give up 29/g, but is that mostly rushing yards, passing yards/receptions, TDs, or a combo of all of them?  As for the Rams, they lean more towards the rushing side as they are giving up top 5 for rush yds/g and most TDs/game.  That falls in line with AP maybe being able to do some damage.  SF 2nd on the list, but they only give up a middling .5Td/g and <100yds/g, so we might want to dig a tad deeper for Zeke.  That matchup might be fine if it's a RB like Gordon who sees ton of work in the pass game too, but maybe not a guy like Ajayi who just rushes. 

Another great quick way to look at things is on RGs page (free, but you have to set up a username).  They have an NFL first look page that has a ton of quick info.  One thing I glance at is the DVOA, so a quick glance at SFs rush D and you see that they are 13th vs. the run, but 30th vs.  RB-rec.   Right below that they have a chart where they compare the adjusted Line yds for what the OL is doing vs. what the DL is giving up, and again you see that the Dallas m/u is right in the middle at 16.   Does that mean that Zeke is a terrible play? Probably not with his talent, but it might indicate that he isn't the home run smash play that is looks like on first glance. 

No surprise, but NE is 3rd on the list for ppg, and they are 22 DVOA vs. rush, and 28 vs. RB-pa.  Atl is #1 on the chart as far as comparing OL vs. DL.  Just so happens that both Atl Rbs are involved in the passing game, cheaper,  and are probably going to be lower owned than Zeke too b/c Freeman just trolled us last week. 

Didn't mean to ramble on so much.  Too much coffee, I guess.

 
Also great suggestion in the week 6 thread about not ignoring K and Def in research by a couple other players.  Makes sense - D and K are every bit as volatile as other positions, but I know I don't look at them much despite having the chalk K just put in 3 PATs for the week or Ds like Denver throwing up a dud on SNF. 

After looking at stats for a couple minutes, here are some cheap options that I wrote down for this week:

PK - Gould, Vinateri, Hauschka, Elliot  (all 4.7 or less)

Def - Chicago and Chargers (both at home and 4.3 or less)

 
Does anyone know how cash and GPP lines look for Thurs-Mon compared to the main slate?  Are they typically comparable?  I realize that high scoring Thursday/Monday games should cause the line to be higher, however I just wanted to see if there were any statistics on it.

 
Sticking mostly with the IVC this week.  Going to enter in the top 2 lineups for each (Tremblay, Dodds, and Bloom) based on what the IVC spits out.  Since my IVC lineups have been doing well for me and I can't resist the urge to enter GPPs, I'm going to enter each of them into cash and $1 GPPs.  I'm also going to enter a couple cash lineups that I like just from my own personal research.

Best Average IVC - Wents, McCoy, Ingram, AJG, Demaryius, R. Matthews, Ertz, Elliot, Dolphins

My favorite IVC lineup (one of Tremblay's better projected lineups) - Wentz, Hyde, McCoy, AJG, Fitz, R. Matthews, Ertz, Elliot, Dolphins

My Cash #1 - Brady, McCoy, AP, Julio, Demaryius, R. Matthews, Walker, Elliott, Saints

My Cash #2 - Wentz, Zeke, Hyde, Demaryius, Crabtree, M. Thomas, Walker, Gould, Dolphins

I'm going to be heavy on Wentz, Dak, McCoy, Hyde, Ingram, Julio, AJG, Demaryius, R. Matthews, Ertz, Kelce, Walker, Elliott, Dolphins, Vikings

 
Yuck again, pairing down what a put in play this week.

Only doing 1 cash LU with 10 $2 DBL Ups in the Thur-Mon

ASmith/Bell/McCoy/JJ/RMath/Decker/Walker/Lutz/Minn

Pairing back on GPPs as well

Gonna super stack the KC/Oak game just for fun

 
Megla said:
Yuck again, pairing down what a put in play this week.

Only doing 1 cash LU with 10 $2 DBL Ups in the Thur-Mon

ASmith/Bell/McCoy/JJ/RMath/Decker/Walker/Lutz/Minn

Pairing back on GPPs as well

Gonna super stack the KC/Oak game just for fun
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Oh yeah, kc/oak super stack to make it seem like you’re winning a bunch early in the weekend, makes me feel better after a bad week.

So you guys that don’t play Wilson and then he blows up, are you playing Wilson this week? If not maybe I’ll throw in a $1 Wilson lineup since he will assuredly blow up. 

 
Snorkelson said:
Oh yeah, kc/oak super stack to make it seem like you’re winning a bunch early in the weekend, makes me feel better after a bad week.
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No, its a top 5 point total game this week and it's primtime, I have every expectation of cashing with it.

 
Megla said:
No, its a top 5 point total game this week and it's primtime, I have every expectation of cashing with it.
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I wasn’t trying to sound sarcastic, I see those kinds of stacks cash for sure, and if not, you get to feel good for a couple days. You can also put in a philly/Washington stacked game to sandbag a Thursday-mon contest, keep your hopes up through the weekend

Im not in here to act like I know anything, and I hesitate to even give an opinion unless I really have a stance because I don’t want to talk someone off a big game. I like the dialog, you play your money the way you like. 

 
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Thursday night upon us. 

Who are you playing in your Thursday night lineup for tonight's game. 

Im actually leaning toward Cooper at $6200 along with Hunt. 

Anyone else see Cooper getting off his slide here? Is Hunt worth the extreme cost or is it better to play Zeke, Fournette or Gurley instead?

 
Snorkelson said:
Oh yeah, kc/oak super stack to make it seem like you’re winning a bunch early in the weekend, makes me feel better after a bad week.

So you guys that don’t play Wilson and then he blows up, are you playing Wilson this week? If not maybe I’ll throw in a $1 Wilson lineup since he will assuredly blow up. 
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As of now, no Wilson for me this week. 

 
Only4fun said:
Thursday night upon us. 

Who are you playing in your Thursday night lineup for tonight's game. 

Im actually leaning toward Cooper at $6200 along with Hunt. 

Anyone else see Cooper getting off his slide here? Is Hunt worth the extreme cost or is it better to play Zeke, Fournette or Gurley instead?
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Cooper interests me this week, but I am not playing him.  I also like other RB more than Hunt. 

 
Only4fun said:
Thursday night upon us. 

Who are you playing in your Thursday night lineup for tonight's game. 

Im actually leaning toward Cooper at $6200 along with Hunt. 

Anyone else see Cooper getting off his slide here? Is Hunt worth the extreme cost or is it better to play Zeke, Fournette or Gurley instead?
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Nice call

 
Might have put one too many players in, but I did put in a Thurs-Mon gpp with Carr-Cooper-Hill-Kelce-Crabtree for Ss&Gs.

 
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I have some cooper stock in mon-Thursday, only one Gpp starting Thursday and faded this game on the idea that perhaps there would be a lot of action on it. Guess I’ll see how my team stacks up. 

My Mon-Thursday lineup is sitting 900/17857, won’t get into the top money but hoping to slide into some more. 

 
KarmaPolice said:
Might have put one too many players in, but I did put in a Thurs-Mon gpp with Carr-Cooper-Hill-Kelce-Crabtree for Ss&Gs.
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I did 12 entries for the $150K Thu NFL Rush ($20K to 1st, Thu-Mon) and basically have the same core lineup for all 12 with minor tweaks.  The current result is that I have 8 teams at 92.28 (4 players - Carr, Crab, Cooper, Hunt) and 4 teams at 89.88 (4 players - Carr, Crab, Cooper, Kelce).  Between the 12 entries, I mix and match the following RB combos (Hunt-Henry, Hunt-Mixon, Zeke-Mixon) with every possible combination using these 4 defenses (MIA, LAC, NYG, GBP).  

As a baseline for my picks, I aim to 'triple' my players salaries... meaning if a player costs $5,000 and he's in my lineup, I'm expecting 15 points.  Then of course you then need to have a few players go a little more than triple and then you have an excellent shot at winning.  But if you triple, you're at 180 points and 180 puts you in the hunt in almost any big tournament.

 
Tonight's game was one of the most exciting I've watched in awhile.  I hate both teams but it was fun to watch that 4th quarter on the edge of my seat.

 
Rhythmdoctor said:
I did 12 entries for the $150K Thu NFL Rush ($20K to 1st, Thu-Mon) and basically have the same core lineup for all 12 with minor tweaks.  The current result is that I have 8 teams at 92.28 (4 players - Carr, Crab, Cooper, Hunt) and 4 teams at 89.88 (4 players - Carr, Crab, Cooper, Kelce).  Between the 12 entries, I mix and match the following RB combos (Hunt-Henry, Hunt-Mixon, Zeke-Mixon) with every possible combination using these 4 defenses (MIA, LAC, NYG, GBP).  

As a baseline for my picks, I aim to 'triple' my players salaries... meaning if a player costs $5,000 and he's in my lineup, I'm expecting 15 points.  Then of course you then need to have a few players go a little more than triple and then you have an excellent shot at winning.  But if you triple, you're at 180 points and 180 puts you in the hunt in almost any big tournament.
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I did just 2 cheap gpps, one with a stack and one fading the game.  I have 112pts in the one lu, with my 2 rbs, pk, and D to go.  

 
Curious how @Megla is feeling this morning with his Thursday stacks. And a big “GOOD LUCK” to @Rhythmdoctor on his good start. 

I think I’ve played Alex smith in at least one lineup every week and they’ve cashed for me most of the time. He’s my anti-Wilson. He will finally likely be priced higher going forward.

 
Snorkelson said:
Curious how @Megla is feeling this morning with his Thursday stacks. And a big “GOOD LUCK” to @Rhythmdoctor on his good start. 

I think I’ve played Alex smith in at least one lineup every week and they’ve cashed for me most of the time. He’s my anti-Wilson. He will finally likely be priced higher going forward.
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Only did one super stack of the KC/Oak game but guessed the wrong Oak WR, sitting at 77.18 with JJones/Decker and the NO def left so that's going to be a min cash at best.

As for Thur-Mon stacks involving the THF game I have

1 $4 GPP with ASmith/THill sitting a 47.88

Have Coop in 2 $4 GPPs sitting at 38.50

and have ASmith as my cash LU QB sitting at 25.68

Outside of the superstack I'm getting 3X or better on most of my TNF players so I'm pretty happy.

 
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I threw in a couple GPP stacks with the Thursday game that I'm feeling pretty good about...

1.  Carr, Cooper, Crabtree for 78.58 - Sitting at 3.8x combined for the $20.6k money spent.  Feel good here.

2.  Smith, Tyreek, Crabtree, Kelce - 69.08 - 2.3x on the $30.1k spent - Crabtree and Kelce are going to hurt when all is said and done.  Probably not much more than minimum cash.

3.  Carr and Crabtree - 40.08 - 2.78x on the $14.4k spent - hoping minimum cash

Most of my GPPs I completely faded this game with the exception of a few shares of Kelce :(

 
Megla said:
This has taken a 180, looks like you are going to have to wait until just before game time for a decision.  He has not practiced this week at all.
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Thanks. I will keep an eye on it. I am only using him twice, so I will have a quick switch planned. Ivory an option if Fournette sits?

 
This is copied from Dodds' blog.  Any answers to these questions? 

Does Jameis Winston play? He supposedly only threw one pass on Thursday and now looks like he could scratch. If Winston scratches, both Fitzpatrick ($6,300) and Tyrod Taylor ($7,000) as well as Buffalo's defense all get upgraded.  Winston is starting

Does WR Stefon Diggs play? I have it that way currently which puts WR Adam Thielen solidly in play.

Does WR Jordan Matthews play? If he does that would be another point towards playing QB Tyrod Taylor.

Does RB DeMarco Murray play? he did not practice on Thursday and his absence could vault RB Derrick Henry who looked solid last week.

Is Marqise Lee going to play? Because if he scratches, WR Allen Hurns becomes my play of the week. Lee has now missed both Wednesday and Thursday practices.

WR Kelvin Benjamin is in danger of scratching. If that happens, Devin Funchess is elevated significantly.

RB Jonathan Stewart, were he to scratch, would put Chrstian McCaffrey ($6,800) in a great spot.
Click to expand...


As an aside, if you don't read his blog, you should.  It's excellent.

 
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FatNate said:
Thanks. I will keep an eye on it. I am only using him twice, so I will have a quick switch planned. Ivory an option if Fournette sits?
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He's an OK cheap option at RB but don't expect the same # of touches, if Fournette sits it would mean a uptick in touches for both Ivory and Grant

 
What's your favorite way to get exposure to DAL this week? Dak, Zeke, receiving option?  Bailey?  

 
lmack said:
What's your favorite way to get exposure to DAL this week? Dak, Zeke, receiving option?  Bailey?  
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For me, it's Dak-Dez this week.  Dallas OL and Zeke haven't been quite the same this year, and SF's CBs are terrible.  SF is pretty good vs. TEs too. 

 
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