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Was the Garoppolo trade a good or bad trade for the 49ers?

Was the Garappolo trade a good or bad trade for the 49ers?  

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Facts:

  • 49ers are 0-8
  • Garoppolo is an unrestricted free agent after this season
  • They paid their own 2nd round pick (likely very high)

The question is not about New England. Just the 49ers.

Edited by FF Ninja

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Without a qb you really don't have a chance in the nfl. So if he is the answer then it's worth it...but we have seen this game from new England before. I'm guessing the situation will be so bad that Jimmy g fails

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Personally, I think it was idiotic. Throwing him into the fire midseason without any prior experience in the system is not a good evaluation tool. If he does well, they just drove up his free agent price on themselves and paid a high price (early 2nd) to do it. If he does poorly, was it due to the awful circumstances (bad OL, bad team, no chemistry, no time to learn the playbook) or because he's not good? Thus, leaving themselves in a bad spot - do they let him walk after just dropping the 33rd overall pick on him or do they further invest in him? If he does just OK, that means he probably won a couple games and now they won't get the 1.01 draft pick that they desperately need.

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Good QBs have enough control over an offense that they can generally improve just about any offense to a tolerable situation IMO. 

And I've liked JG since he entered the league but no one knows anything at this point.  But getting a legit CHANCE at a franchise QB for a 2nd round pick and not having to wait three or four years to know what you've got is good biz.

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I think this is a great trade by the 49ers. They get to evaluate Jimmy this season which gives them 2 pieces of information: is he who we think he is (probably) and, if he is, how does the current offense fit in with him? That will tell them what they need to do in free agency and the draft.

As for his contract situation, he will be the second most sought after free agent in the league this off season. By trading a second rounder for him though, they own his rights and can franchise or transition tag him. They will try to negotiate with him and woo him over to the idea of being their guy but if he balks, the transition tag would be excellent for locking him up on a long term contract. They have the money to do it.

To summarize, QB in his prime that is a better prospect than most 1st round QBs and literally can't escape your team for the next 2-3 years unless he retires or dies. All for a 2nd round pick. Sign me up.

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Like any other trade, it can only be evaluated in the future. There are too many variables to know much at this point.

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my thoughts copied from another thread:

 

Huge roll of the dice by the 9ers.  Does anyone know if Shanahan pounded the table for this trade or not?  They’ve got a truncated period to decide whether they want to throw some serious dollars at Garappolo next year.  If it works out it’s going to look brilliant, but why do I have this nagging feeling that Belichek just pulled the wool over someone else’s eyes?  It’ll be fun to watch their end and how it works out. It helps that they’ve got Beathard and his rookie deal on the books.  Would have loved to have been a fly on the wall in their WR on this.

 

Still, the return for NE isn’t very good.  They invested a second round pick and got a higher second round pick in exchange, but lost 3 years of development/production from the original pick.  I’d have to give them a lean to a loss on this deal, but at least give them credit for not losing out by trying to recover sunk costs and not being able to turn the deal.

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Seems like a good trade to me, especially knowing how much cap space they have.  Garappolo is most likely better than any of the QBs coming out of college this year and he's younger than Cousins.  A good QB is key to progressing your team so I don't see a problem with it.

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2 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Like any other trade, it can only be evaluated in the future. There are too many variables to know much at this point.

Actually it can be evaluated now. Pats weren't going to franchise him. 49ers just paid a high 2nd for a guy they could have likely signed as a FA 4 months from now and they have the most cap space in the league by a huge amount so no one can outbid them.

So the question is it worth it to pay a high 2nd for a month and a half of early evaluation and exclusive negotiating rights on his next contract? IMO, it's not, obviously others disagree.

If JG comes out at some point and says that he never would have considered SF but they won him over after spending time with them, then maybe it is worth it. Personally I think it is dumb, take your licks this year, sign him in the offseason, and save yourself the possible 2.01 pick. If it turns out he sucks after signing him as a FA so what? This isn't a Brock Oswieler situation with a salary cap noose around your neck, they've got ####tons of money.

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Just now, Buckna said:

Actually it can be evaluated now. Pats weren't going to franchise him. 49ers just paid a high 2nd for a guy they could have likely signed as a FA 4 months from now and they have the most cap space in the league by a huge amount so no one can outbid them.

So the question is it worth it to pay a high 2nd for a month and a half of early evaluation and exclusive negotiating rights on his next contract? IMO, it's not, obviously others disagree.

If JG comes out at some point and says that he never would have considered SF but they won him over after spending time with them, then maybe it is worth it. Personally I think it is dumb, take your licks this year, sign him in the offseason, and save yourself the possible 2.01 pick. If it turns out he sucks after signing him as a FA so what? This isn't a Brock Oswieler situation with a salary cap noose around your neck, they've got ####tons of money.

Do you want me to list off all the things we don't know?

Maybe Shanahan sees JG as the next Matt Ryan. Maybe they already have a new deal in place for less than it would have cost them in a bidding war if he were on the open market. Maybe Jimmy G. performs great THIS YEAR and it turns out to be a steal. Maybe they don't have an extension in place and JG bombs or gets hurt and they don't get stuck with an $80 million contract with half guaranteed. Maybe they franchise him and trade him to the Browns (that would be so Cleveland).

Every signing, draft pick, and decision comes with risk. I don't see how this one in particular is way worse than the other options (use a Top 5 pick on an unproven college QB, signing a free agent at top dollar, signing a bargain basement free agent, trading for a different QB, etc.). It's pretty much widely accepted throughout the league that team's give a broad birth in trying to nail down a decent QB.

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A high pick along with a 20 million a year multi-year  contract is a huge commitment. Why not just take a qb at 2 last draft or the next one and have a cheap contract for 5 years? 

Edited by flapgreen

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49 minutes ago, LongDuckDong said:

If their scouting is good on Jimmy G it's a great trade. You take that shot 100/100 times and see what happens. 

If Kyle can develop a QB it will be a great trade.

37 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Seems like a good trade to me, especially knowing how much cap space they have.  Garappolo is most likely better than any of the QBs coming out of college this year and he's younger than Cousins.  A good QB is key to progressing your team so I don't see a problem with it.

Time will tell but I really disagree. 

 I do think Barkley or key plus Jimmy G could be better than Rosen and Damien Harris. I'd rather have Rosen and keep Hyde but that seemed unlikely before the trade.

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54 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Like any other trade, it can only be evaluated in the future. There are too many variables to know much at this point.

Not really. We can obviously judge it again at a later date, but I'm asking the question from what we know now. Personally, I don't see enough of an advantage to trade for him now over just signing him as a FA. SF is a bad team with a lot of cap room. They should just continue to lose, keep their draft picks, take a shot at QB at 1.01 or 1.02, AND sign JG in the offseason if they love him so much. There is very little utility to throwing him into the fire right now, yet they are paying a huge known price plus the potential of playing themselves out of the worst record in the league.

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1 hour ago, gabes1919 said:

I think this is a great trade by the 49ers. They get to evaluate Jimmy this season which gives them 2 pieces of information: is he who we think he is (probably) and, if he is, how does the current offense fit in with him? That will tell them what they need to do in free agency and the draft.

As for his contract situation, he will be the second most sought after free agent in the league this off season. By trading a second rounder for him though, they own his rights and can franchise or transition tag him. They will try to negotiate with him and woo him over to the idea of being their guy but if he balks, the transition tag would be excellent for locking him up on a long term contract. They have the money to do it.

To summarize, QB in his prime that is a better prospect than most 1st round QBs and literally can't escape your team for the next 2-3 years unless he retires or dies. All for a 2nd round pick. Sign me up.

Dead on...will also add they now have a ton of flexibility with that high #1 they are getting...they don’t have to force it on a QB which they were probably going to do...they can also deal it and probably recoup that traded second rounder (and possibly more)...

Edited by Boston
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1 hour ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Good QBs have enough control over an offense that they can generally improve just about any offense to a tolerable situation IMO. 

And I've liked JG since he entered the league but no one knows anything at this point.  But getting a legit CHANCE at a franchise QB for a 2nd round pick and not having to wait three or four years to know what you've got is good biz.

 

1 hour ago, LongDuckDong said:

If their scouting is good on Jimmy G it's a great trade. You take that shot 100/100 times and see what happens. 

Are you guys aware his contract expires this year? If their scouting is good then they should've signed him as a FA. If they are right and he's good and he performs well this season then they'll (1) drive up his FA price and (2) play themselves out of the 1.01 or 1.02 pick.

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10 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Do you want me to list off all the things we don't know?

Maybe Shanahan sees JG as the next Matt Ryan. Maybe they already have a new deal in place for less than it would have cost them in a bidding war if he were on the open market. Maybe Jimmy G. performs great THIS YEAR and it turns out to be a steal. Maybe they don't have an extension in place and JG bombs or gets hurt and they don't get stuck with an $80 million contract with half guaranteed. Maybe they franchise him and trade him to the Browns (that would be so Cleveland).

Every signing, draft pick, and decision comes with risk. I don't see how this one in particular is way worse than the other options (use a Top 5 pick on an unproven college QB, signing a free agent at top dollar, signing a bargain basement free agent, trading for a different QB, etc.). It's pretty much widely accepted throughout the league that team's give a broad birth in trying to nail down a decent QB.

Eh, there are elements of risk as you say with any move, but what makes us able to call this a poor trade right now IMO is because they just shipped off a scarce and valuable resource in the form of an early 2nd rounder for a guy they could have acquired in 4 months for resources they have in over-abundance (cap dollars.)

I guess it comes down to how you value those resources, even with the bust rate on picks, I would think teams place a much higher value on picks compared to FA salary cap dollars, for example, teams throw stupid money at mediocre FA players all the time. As for your other options, at least with a Top 5 pick they have relatively cheap contracts and you control their rights for 5 years instead of two months and a franchise tag or expensive extension. At least if you sign him as an expensive FA and keep that 2nd round pick, they have a projected $115M in cap space next year to absorb more than a few bad contracts. The question is if the extra 7~8 weeks they get to evaluate him and try to resign him are worth that high pick. Not even close IMO but I could turn out wrong (odds say JG sucks just like the other 5 QB's Belichick has traded away over the years.)

You name some scenario's but there are tons of others where this could turn out very badly for SF after making this trade that have been discussed in the other threads. What if he does play well? You just drove up the price to resign him and hurt your draft position. What if he plays mediocre and you don't know what you have? What if plays poorly? But how much of that is because they have a crap o'line, he's had no preparation, and has barely anything at the skill positions to work with? What if he gets injured? He wasn't exactly the picture of health with NE. It may turn out great for them, but there's plenty of ways this can go sideways on them and then they blew a 2nd round pick they didn't have to. 

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39 minutes ago, flapgreen said:

A high pick along with a 20 million a year multi-year  contract is a huge commitment. Why not just take a qb at 2 last draft or the next one and have a cheap contract for 5 years? 

Because they may like Jimmy G better...sometimes it is that simple...Shanahan has liked him since he was with Cleveland...agree or disagree he may have identified him as their franchise QB and if he hits on this losing a #2 is literally nothing...

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1 hour ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

Without a qb you really don't have a chance in the nfl. So if he is the answer then it's worth it...but we have seen this game from new England before. I'm guessing the situation will be so bad that Jimmy g fails

 

while this is true, it's also difficult to compete if too much of your cap space is devoted to a QB and after this season, if they wanna keep him, they're probably going to have to give him a lot of money...

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2 minutes ago, strong said:

 

while this is true, it's also difficult to compete if too much of your cap space is devoted to a QB and after this season, if they wanna keep him, they're probably going to have to give him a lot of money...

It is far tougher to compete without a franchise level QB...

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49 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Do you want me to list off all the things we don't know?

Maybe Shanahan sees JG as the next Matt Ryan. Maybe they already have a new deal in place for less than it would have cost them in a bidding war if he were on the open market. Maybe Jimmy G. performs great THIS YEAR and it turns out to be a steal. Maybe they don't have an extension in place and JG bombs or gets hurt and they don't get stuck with an $80 million contract with half guaranteed. Maybe they franchise him and trade him to the Browns (that would be so Cleveland).

Every signing, draft pick, and decision comes with risk. I don't see how this one in particular is way worse than the other options (use a Top 5 pick on an unproven college QB, signing a free agent at top dollar, signing a bargain basement free agent, trading for a different QB, etc.). It's pretty much widely accepted throughout the league that team's give a broad birth in trying to nail down a decent QB.

:thumbup:

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9 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

 

Are you guys aware his contract expires this year? If their scouting is good then they should've signed him as a FA. If they are right and he's good and he performs well this season then they'll (1) drive up his FA price and (2) play themselves out of the 1.01 or 1.02 pick.

Yes, just automatically sign him in the offseason.  Your team is a lock above the other 5 qb needy teams to get him.  No other team has a shot.  :unsure:

Or else just draft your stud franchise qb at pick 2 cause he's a lock to be a stud. 

If only every nfl gm had a high IQ to just get what they wanted.

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1 hour ago, Bronco Billy said:

my thoughts copied from another thread:

Huge roll of the dice by the 9ers.  Does anyone know if Shanahan pounded the table for this trade or not?  They’ve got a truncated period to decide whether they want to throw some serious dollars at Garappolo next year.  If it works out it’s going to look brilliant, but why do I have this nagging feeling that Belichek just pulled the wool over someone else’s eyes?  It’ll be fun to watch their end and how it works out. It helps that they’ve got Beathard and his rookie deal on the books.  Would have loved to have been a fly on the wall in their WR on this.

Still, the return for NE isn’t very good.  They invested a second round pick and got a higher second round pick in exchange, but lost 3 years of development/production from the original pick.  I’d have to give them a lean to a loss on this deal, but at least give them credit for not losing out by trying to recover sunk costs and not being able to turn the deal.

If it works out it won't look brilliant. People will say, why didn't we just sign him as a FA instead of giving away a 2nd and playing ourselves down from 1.01 to 1.08? That's IF he pans out. If he doesn't, then a team rich with cap space blew an early 2nd round pick to save some money. This is a bad team. They need high rookie picks more than they need to save money.

As for NE, they invested a 2nd round pick, got 3.5 years of backup out of it, and then got the pick back. This was a great trade for them. The only way it isn't is if Brady gets hurt in the next few games and even then, would they have really won the SB with JG? Maybe, maybe not. But chances are that Brady doesn't get hurt and they just recouped their investment.

Edited by FF Ninja
typo

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7 minutes ago, strong said:

 

while this is true, it's also difficult to compete if too much of your cap space is devoted to a QB and after this season, if they wanna keep him, they're probably going to have to give him a lot of money...

He is still going to be cheaper than Cousins.  So yes, if money is the concern, then the draft is the only way to get your guy.  But I think JG learning under Brady, and still young, is a better prospect than anyone coming out this year.  Shanny probably agrees.  If you like Darnold way over JG than for sure I can see your point they should just draft Darnold. 

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

Yes, just automatically sign him in the offseason.  Your team is a lock above the other 5 qb needy teams to get him.  No other team has a shot.  :unsure:

Or else just draft your stud franchise qb at pick 2 cause he's a lock to be a stud. 

If only every nfl gm had a high IQ to just get what they wanted.

They have a crazy amount of cap space. They could get him if they want him. Instead they'll be making a rushed evaluation on a guy who didn't have time to learn the system or gain any chemistry with his teammates. That's a foolproof plan :crazy:

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1 minute ago, FF Ninja said:

If it works out it won't look brilliant. People will say, why didn't we just sign him as a FA instead of giving away a 2nd and playing ourselves down from 1.01 to 1.08? That's IF he pans out. If he doesn't, then a team rich with cap space blew an early 2nd round pick to save some money. This is a bad team. They need high rookie picks more than they need to save money.

As for NE, they invested a 2nd round pick, got 3.5 years of backup out of it, and then got the pick back. This was a great trade for them. The only way it isn't is if Brady gets hurt in the next few games and even then, would they have really won the SB with JG? Maybe, maybe not. But chances are that Brady doesn't get hurt and they just recouped their investment.

Again, because 'just signing him as a FA" isn't an adequate response.  There will be multiple other teams trying to do the same.  Throwing money at him, flying him to their facility, making sure that you don't even get a CHANCE to talk to the dude.  Not sure what you're missing here... SF can't just sign him in the offseason because they want to.

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Just now, FF Ninja said:

They have a crazy amount of cap space. They could get him if they want him. Instead they'll be making a rushed evaluation on a guy who didn't have time to learn the system or gain any chemistry with his teammates. That's a foolproof plan :crazy:

He will have had time.  He will have a 5-7 month head start on what he would have if he just signed there as a FA.

Shannahans offense is notorious for taking a year to understand and get comfortable with... and after that, you usually thrive.  Give this kid that extra 6 months and I'm willing to bet he doesn't even visit those other teams' facilities.  You give up ONE of your 2nd round picks 100 out of 100 times in order to get that.

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Just now, Deamon said:

Again, because 'just signing him as a FA" isn't an adequate response.  There will be multiple other teams trying to do the same.  Throwing money at him, flying him to their facility, making sure that you don't even get a CHANCE to talk to the dude.  Not sure what you're missing here... SF can't just sign him in the offseason because they want to.

Unless they overpay to franchise him, those teams will be doing that anyway! Having him sit around the facility for 2 months doesn't magically give them a discount (which they don't even need from a cap standpoint). 

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Just now, Deamon said:

He will have had time.  He will have a 5-7 month head start on what he would have if he just signed there as a FA.

Shannahans offense is notorious for taking a year to understand and get comfortable with... and after that, you usually thrive.  Give this kid that extra 6 months and I'm willing to bet he doesn't even visit those other teams' facilities.  You give up ONE of your 2nd round picks 100 out of 100 times in order to get that.

No it isn't. It's basically Kubiak's offense which was basically Shanahan's dad's offense. Not known for being that complex. I'd say it is a middle of the road complexity at most.

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Just now, FF Ninja said:

Unless they overpay to franchise him, those teams will be doing that anyway! Having him sit around the facility for 2 months doesn't magically give them a discount (which they don't even need from a cap standpoint). 

2 months?  FA doesn't start until March... not sure how October to March is '2 months".

And no teams won't be doing that anyways.  My bet is that he signs in SF long term before he visits another team but apparently you don't think that's the case.

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If he had another season on his rookie deal, it would be great.  As it stands, I hate it.  He'll look just good enough to demand a huge contract.  

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3 minutes ago, Deamon said:

2 months?  FA doesn't start until March... not sure how October to March is '2 months".

And no teams won't be doing that anyways.  My bet is that he signs in SF long term before he visits another team but apparently you don't think that's the case.

Nov+Dec = 2 months. There are no organized team activities from Jan-Mar.

I certainly think that is a possibility. However, I think the price will be approximately the same as it would've been if he'd signed with them as a free agent (ETA - if not more :moneybag:).

Edited by FF Ninja

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FWIW, I'd have thought this was a good trade if made before training camp. Give him some time to learn the system and then evaluate him during the whole season. The price would've been fine for that. But paying a known high 2nd this late in the game... just stupid. 

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3 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

No it isn't. It's basically Kubiak's offense which was basically Shanahan's dad's offense. Not known for being that complex. I'd say it is a middle of the road complexity at most.

"Shanahan's scheme has a reputation for expansive verbiage that can take some time to grasp."

"The 49ers also will have to be patient with Garoppolo. Shanahan's reputation holds that his offensive scheme takes a year to percolate before sticking, with the Falcons as the most notable example. Matt Ryan looked frustrated and lost at times in 2015, but he won league MVP behind a better offensive line in 2016. Ryan had a training camp to learn the scheme; Garoppolo will be learning the playbook overnight."

Middle of the road complexity at the most?  Now you're just stretching.  I realize this thread isn't going the way you hoped it would since you said your high IQ makes you smarter than most people and that most people think the trade is bad.  But at least get your facts straight.

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4 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Nov+Dec = 2 months. There are no organized team activities from Jan-Mar.

I certainly think that is a possibility. However, I think the price will be approximately the same as it would've been if he'd signed with them as a free agent (ETA - if not more :moneybag:).

He will have worked with the playbook and can study up on it from Jan-March.  If they didn't do this trade, he couldn't even touch the playbook until March.

5 months.

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3 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

FWIW, I'd have thought this was a good trade if made before training camp. Give him some time to learn the system and then evaluate him during the whole season. The price would've been fine for that. But paying a known high 2nd this late in the game... just stupid. 

Guess you ignored it in the other thread.  But you said you hadn't seen a single article saying they made a good trade so here's a few for you if you choose to take the blinders off.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2741599-49ers-taking-a-big-risk-in-jimmy-garoppolo-and-thats-a-good-thing
https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/10/30/jimmy-garoppolo-trade-patriots-49ers
https://sports.yahoo.com/trade-garoppolo-49ers-first-win-012520575.html
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/21231197/all-jimmy-garoppolo-trade-dominoes-new-england-patriots-san-francisco-49ers-affected-2017-deadline
https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2017/10/30/16577572/jimmy-garoppolo-49ers-trade
https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/10/31/nfl-trade-deadline-jimmy-garoppolo-san-francisco-cleveland

 

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18 minutes ago, Deamon said:

He is still going to be cheaper than Cousins.  So yes, if money is the concern, then the draft is the only way to get your guy.  But I think JG learning under Brady, and still young, is a better prospect than anyone coming out this year.  Shanny probably agrees.  If you like Darnold way over JG than for sure I can see your point they should just draft Darnold. 

Brissett is looking ok I guess (considering how bad the colts are elsewhere) but this has not worked out for any other team. 

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I think it's a good trade - drafting QBs is chancy business and can take a while to pay off - but the thing is players in some system offenses like the Pats don't thrive outside those offenses.

I mean the Pats traded their 2nd AND 3rd string QBs, and they'll just be replacing them with one of their old ones, think about that.

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Just now, -OZ- said:

Brissett is looking ok I guess (considering how bad the colts are elsewhere) but this has not worked out for any other team. 

True but I think JG is better than Brissett from a talent level.  Also think he's far superior to Cassel from a talent level.  JG was touted pretty highly coming into the draft and has the physical tools to outperform those guys.  I'm not saying he's a savior at all, but I do think he's still young enough and going to be cheap enough that he's better than taking a massive risk on Darnold or Rosen.  Give one of those kids Shannys playbook and it'll be a couple years before they grasp it.  Or give JG a 5 month head start on it, and gather lots of picks by trading pick 1.02 and I think that sets your team up for the future WAY better.

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1 minute ago, Deamon said:

True but I think JG is better than Brissett from a talent level.  Also think he's far superior to Cassel from a talent level.  JG was touted pretty highly coming into the draft and has the physical tools to outperform those guys.  I'm not saying he's a savior at all, but I do think he's still young enough and going to be cheap enough that he's better than taking a massive risk on Darnold or Rosen.  Give one of those kids Shannys playbook and it'll be a couple years before they grasp it.  Or give JG a 5 month head start on it, and gather lots of picks by trading pick 1.02 and I think that sets your team up for the future WAY better.

I might be reading you wrong but do you think Jimmy picks up on the playbook faster than the rookies or is it just the head start? 

For the record, I'd have bet on 3 of the rookie QBs doing better than Jimmy G for their careers. (3/5 out of Jackson, Thorson, Allen, Rosen and Darnold) if given the right coaching staff.

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8 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Nov+Dec = 2 months. There are no organized team activities from Jan-Mar.

I certainly think that is a possibility. However, I think the price will be approximately the same as it would've been if he'd signed with them as a free agent. 

Even if the price would be the same, this way the 9ers get to see him at practice and games/listen to him/get to know his personality etc. before offering him a long term deal. Am I in love with the deal, no, but from the 9ers standpoint they will have A LOT more subjective info with which to make a decision on whether to offer him a contract than they would with him in the Pat's facility across the country. They can do with him what they want...play him a quarter and let Beathard take more beatings and more losses to ensure a better chance at a higher pick. Why does he HAVE to start? Why would he have to play a whole game? The 9ers will be able to see cream rise to the top (or not) regardless of ideal circumstances. I'm SURE they are well aware of the debacle of Osweiler, and this is a calculated risk to avoid a fairly major setback. If they don't feel comfortable after two months plus of interaction, they walk away and lose the #33rd pick they they HOPED to hit on (no sure thing either).

If the trial doesn't work out, I'd be happier to lose a #33 and not be strapped with a huge long term contract (if they won the JG lottery). Then you lick your wounds and draft a QB and start the developmental clock (good luck---2 years behind).

Senario #2 is you win the JG lottery AFTER the season sight unseen, spend the money, locked in for years, and possibly end up with Osweiler-esgue bad bit/bad personality/poor leadership situation. You still have your top draft pick or can trade for more parts.

Senario #3 is you pay the #33, get to know the guy and like what you see and hear. You feel confident to spend the money because you've increased the odds of him being a fit......You sign him with much more confidence...and can still sell off the top pick for more picks to a desperate team.

I just don't see anything that makes this a HORRIBLE move. Oh, the Pats get what they need just like they usually do.

 

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3 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

I might be reading you wrong but do you think Jimmy picks up on the playbook faster than the rookies or is it just the head start? 

For the record, I'd have bet on 3 of the rookie QBs doing better than Jimmy G for their careers. (3/5 out of Jackson, Thorson, Allen, Rosen and Darnold) if given the right coaching staff.

I guess it's a bit of both.  That's obviously speculation on my behalf but it's a gut feeling that a 26 year old who has been in the league, in meeting rooms, watching NFL film, studying playbooks, etc. would pick it up faster than a 20 year old fresh out of college.

And yes, also the 6 month head start he would get over a rookie.  October 31 vs April 26 (assuming the rookie picks up the book the night of the draft). 

Given the time it usually takes even experienced QBs like Cousins and Ryan to pick up and get into the rhythm of Shanahan's offense, I think both of these are fairly significant advantages. 

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6 minutes ago, Scooby1974 said:

Even if the price would be the same, this way the 9ers get to see him at practice and games/listen to him/get to know his personality etc. before offering him a long term deal. Am I in love with the deal, no, but from the 9ers standpoint they will have A LOT more subjective info with which to make a decision on whether to offer him a contract than they would with him in the Pat's facility across the country. They can do with him what they want...play him a quarter and let Beathard take more beatings and more losses to ensure a better chance at a higher pick. Why does he HAVE to start? Why would he have to play a whole game? The 9ers will be able to see cream rise to the top (or not) regardless of ideal circumstances. I'm SURE they are well aware of the debacle of Osweiler, and this is a calculated risk to avoid a fairly major setback. If they don't feel comfortable after two months plus of interaction, they walk away and lose the #33rd pick they they HOPED to hit on (no sure thing either).

If the trial doesn't work out, I'd be happier to lose a #33 and not be strapped with a huge long term contract (if they won the JG lottery). Then you lick your wounds and draft a QB and start the developmental clock (good luck---2 years behind).

Senario #2 is you win the JG lottery AFTER the season sight unseen, spend the money, locked in for years, and possibly end up with Osweiler-esgue bad bit/bad personality/poor leadership situation. You still have your top draft pick or can trade for more parts.

Senario #3 is you pay the #33, get to know the guy and like what you see and hear. You feel confident to spend the money because you've increased the odds of him being a fit......You sign him with much more confidence...and can still sell off the top pick for more picks to a desperate team.

I just don't see anything that makes this a HORRIBLE move. Oh, the Pats get what they need just like they usually do.

 

This is another great point not being discussed enough.  There's a lot of practice time, seeing how he analyzes game film and adjusts, seeing how he presents himself in front of media, how much of a leader he becomes to his teammates on/off the field, see if this system is one he can actually get up to speed on and is excited/comfortable in, etc.  It's a cop out to say "oh we won't see much in the 400 minutes he's on the game field" ... it goes way deeper than that.

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Great trade for the 49ers. 

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2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Do you want me to list off all the things we don't know?

Maybe Shanahan sees JG as the next Matt Ryan. Maybe they already have a new deal in place for less than it would have cost them in a bidding war if he were on the open market. Maybe Jimmy G. performs great THIS YEAR and it turns out to be a steal. Maybe they don't have an extension in place and JG bombs or gets hurt and they don't get stuck with an $80 million contract with half guaranteed. Maybe they franchise him and trade him to the Browns (that would be so Cleveland).

Every signing, draft pick, and decision comes with risk. I don't see how this one in particular is way worse than the other options (use a Top 5 pick on an unproven college QB, signing a free agent at top dollar, signing a bargain basement free agent, trading for a different QB, etc.). It's pretty much widely accepted throughout the league that team's give a broad birth in trying to nail down a decent QB.

 

You probably should stay off the message boards if you truly believe trades cannot be evaluated in the present....like what's the point for you other than pointing out that none of us are psychic. lol

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