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Was the Garoppolo trade a good or bad trade for the 49ers?

Was the Garappolo trade a good or bad trade for the 49ers?  

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8 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

The team with the lower strength of schedule (i.e. their opponents compiled fewer wins) is granted the earlier pick in round one

thanks.....................we all know that.

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1 hour ago, JaxBill said:

For everybody balking at the price that the 49ers gave up for Garropolo, consider that another bottom dwelling team just spent a high 2nd round pick on a QB in the draft, yanked him in and out of the lineup multiple times and also tried to complete a deal for a promising  yet unproven backup (for a higher price-tag than the Niners gave up) that was squashed at the last minute for a clerical error.

It may be a very low bar, but the absurd theater of Cleveland's handling of the QB situation, makes the Niners front office look not only reasonable but prescient.

Despite the results, I like what SF is doing this year.  A lot of evaluating and getting rid of players that don't fit their scheme or culture.  They basically started from scratch talent wise.  Really, other than Buckner, Staley, Hyde and Trent Brown (very talented RT), they didn't have any other above average players when Lynch and Shanahan took over.  Tartt is turning into a pretty good safety and Jimmy Ward could be good, but is always hurt, so hard to evaluate him even after 4 years with the team.   Unfortunately, they have had a massive amount of injuries to some of the young players like Foster, Armstead and now Soloman Thomas, which is slowing down their development.  Staley hurt and Brown missing some time is very detrimental to the health of the QB, which is why you won't see Garropolo until they are back in the line up.

Like the fact that Lynch and Shanahan make personnel decisions together.  Total 180 from when Balkke was there.  Plus Lynch recognizes he doesn't know everything (unlike Balkke)  and having a guy like Adam Peters is a huge plus.

Anyway, I think they get it.

Edited by efactor
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50 minutes ago, Scooby1974 said:

Option 1: sign him to a 80 mill. for 4 years contract in the off-season having very little info on him and be stuck with him after you find out two months in he's a career backup in his brain + use the #33 pick and have a better chance at the #1 but not being too sure he can be your franchise guy.

Option 2: trade the #33-#36, evaluate him holistically (skills, leadership, brains, temperament,etc.) and either cut bait (take a top QB in the draft) or CONFIDENTLY lock him up for 80 mill/4 yrs. and get either A. Stud at the 1-3 pick or B. Trade down for more pics.

That's how I am seeing it...and I still take Option 2 with a plan to make sure my team screws up enough to not win any games for the best shot at #1. ;)

 

IMO, your option 2 is overly simplistic and leaves out a lot of possible scenario's in between that have been mentioned in prior posts (for example, what if he gets injured? He lasted less than 2 games as the starter for the Pats before he went down last year and he's now going to be playing with the worst rated O'line in the league for pass protection per PFF.) 8 weeks might be plenty of time to know to cut bait or to know to lock him up. Most likely it won't be near enough time to know anything definitively at all. After trading for him, it was Schaub's 3rd season before the Texan's felt confident they had a quarterback worth extending (turns out they were wrong.) RG3 looked world beating for a season, then the wheels fell off. Watson has played about the same amount of time at this point that JG will play for the 49ers, right now he looks like a current and future stud but what if defenses figure him out and he turns into RG3?

 

I'm hoping JG does well (I own him in dynasty) plus as a football fan the league would be much better off with another good QB since there are so few out there. Even if he looks good or okay and they extend him and later on down the line he doesn't pan out, neither of those moves is likely to be a FRANCHISE CRIPPLING move considering they have so much cap space and are in a total rebuild anyway. But IMO, they didn't have to spend that 2nd in the first place to find out the exact same thing if they had just waited a few months. And they aren't going to be "stuck with him" if they signed him as a FA or resign him this offseason, they have cap space to burn and could easily jettison him and take the hit. Even Brock's contract that everyone points to as so bad was really only a 2 year deal, the Browns actually cut him and ate his entire salary this year because once again, they have so much cap space it barely made a dent, just like SF.

As I posted in one of the other threads or in here, I don't remember anymore, if JG comes out and says "you know I was never considering SF but they've won me over" or something like that. Or Belichick says, we had another offer on the table and SF beat it, then maybe I can see how spending that 2nd to take a chance on your guy was worth it.

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26 minutes ago, ghostguy123 said:

If both the Browns and 49ers were to go winless who gets the #1?  Is is way to early to be able to come close to predicting that?

No way to know this early. There have been years where it literally came down to the final games of the season to determine the SOS tiebreaker.

 

Edit: And there have been ties as well which had to be broken by a coin flip. I don't think the coin flip has ever been needed for the #1 though.

Edited by Buckna

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5 minutes ago, Buckna said:

IMO, your option 2 is overly simplistic and leaves out a lot of possible scenario's in between that have been mentioned in prior posts (for example, what if he gets injured? He lasted less than 2 games as the starter for the Pats before he went down last year and he's now going to be playing with the worst rated O'line in the league for pass protection per PFF.) 8 weeks might be plenty of time to know to cut bait or to know to lock him up. Most likely it won't be near enough time to know anything definitively at all. After trading for him, it was Schaub's 3rd season before the Texan's felt confident they had a quarterback worth extending (turns out they were wrong.) RG3 looked world beating for a season, then the wheels fell off. Watson has played about the same amount of time at this point that JG will play for the 49ers, right now he looks like a current and future stud but what if defenses figure him out and he turns into RG3?

 

I'm hoping JG does well (I own him in dynasty) plus as a football fan the league would be much better off with another good QB since there are so few out there. Even if he looks good or okay and they extend him and later on down the line he doesn't pan out, neither of those moves is likely to be a FRANCHISE CRIPPLING move considering they have so much cap space and are in a total rebuild anyway. But IMO, they didn't have to spend that 2nd in the first place to find out the exact same thing if they had just waited a few months. And they aren't going to be "stuck with him" if they signed him as a FA or resign him this offseason, they have cap space to burn and could easily jettison him and take the hit. Even Brock's contract that everyone points to as so bad was really only a 2 year deal, the Browns actually cut him and ate his entire salary this year because once again, they have so much cap space it barely made a dent, just like SF.

As I posted in one of the other threads or in here, I don't remember anymore, if JG comes out and says "you know I was never considering SF but they've won me over" or something like that. Or Belichick says, we had another offer on the table and SF beat it, then maybe I can see how spending that 2nd to take a chance on your guy was worth it.

Of course it was simplistic, it was one sentence. :)  What if he does get injured? You know we can't plan for that. What if I get injured on the way home from work today (assuming I have a job after typing all this dribble at work ;) ). The point isn't that trading the 2nd rounder is FAIL SAFE, the point is that having him for 2+ months helps to greatly reduce the UNKNOWN factors that would come with signing him AFTER the season and taking their chances.

Definitely...of course not.....but they'd know a WHOLE LOT MORE about him after 2 months with him than they would without him in the fold. They'd also know much more than they would after a day visit from a top QB in the draft process. It's clearly a calculated risk, no doubt.

They'll find out A LOT EARLIER to find out the "exact same thing if they had waited a few months" and BEFORE they sign him to an $80mill/4 year deal.

Date the dude for 2+ months and see if you want to marry him...OR...Marry him and THEN SEE if you should have married him. There is clearly much risk in both situations, but less risk in what they are doing IMO.

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5 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

NE wasn’t taking a 2nd rounder for Garappolo at the beginning of the year, I believe.  There were rumors of them rejecting that level of trade if memory serves.

 

Having Garappolo on the roster now gives the team a huge leg up in signing him long term, and leverage with the possibility of tagging him as well.  If they think Garappolo is THE guy, and/or they consider him a better/less risky prospect than next year’s rookie crop, then this was a very good gamble for SF.  It may not end up like they want, but the mindset behind it seems right.

Yes, I agree. I think it hinges on SF being able to keep him after this season. If not, then it's a terrible trade for SF, obviously

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2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Would have been a Top 10 QB out of the gate if he stayed in NE with McDaniels and BB. Good fit for their system. Possibly a Top 5 QB (depends when that was and who the other 31 QB's would be at that time). The age old argument will be is it the QB or the NE system that has been successful.

Really hard to tell going to another franchise with less talent and a less proven coaching staff. I personally don't think he is a quick fix, trans-formative player like some folks do. There were media people suggesting he would have made the Browns a .500 team THIS YEAR if he had gone there in the off season. There was also talk that he could have taken an average team and gotten them a playoff win. I don't really see that as being realistic.

He did look really good in his limited time last year when Brady was suspended, but he was playing with what turned out to be a Super Bowl winning team and coaching staff around him. That being said, I think he will be below average this year, average the year after, and should be in line to be a plus starter in 2019. The question is, will Shanahan and Jimmy G. get that long to develop and sort things out.

We don't really have much of a feel for how well he will do under pressure, if he can do well in the post season, and how durable he will be. I literally never get a chance to watch SF. Do they have many play makers offensively? It's hard to be a difference maker if you don't have anyone to throw to.

Outside of Garcon and Hyde the niners have no proven playmakers though they do have some promising rookies in Kittle, Breida, and Taylor. I'm not really asking from a FF perspective since I quit playing FF this year... was more asking from a pure talent perspective. From what I've seen he reminds me a lot of Romo (nevermind the fact they came from the same school) with quick deliveries and good pocket instincts. I guess the question here is: Can he be the kind of QB that make plays when everything breaks down (Rodgers/Roethlisberger) or is he the kind of guy that will go only as far as the system will take him (Smith/Dalton)?

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2 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

Outside of Garcon and Hyde the niners have no proven playmakers though they do have some promising rookies in Kittle, Breida, and Taylor. I'm not really asking from a FF perspective since I quit playing FF this year... was more asking from a pure talent perspective. From what I've seen he reminds me a lot of Romo (nevermind the fact they came from the same school) with quick deliveries and good pocket instincts. I guess the question here is: Can he be the kind of QB that make plays when everything breaks down (Rodgers/Roethlisberger) or is he the kind of guy that will go only as far as the system will take him (Smith/Dalton)?

Obviously there is not a lot to go on, but I did get the sense that JG had a tendency to hold on to the ball too long and then took sacks when he didn't have to. I also felt on some plays he panicked and made some ill advised passes, but that was probably due to some jitters and inexperience. If anything, I felt at times he was a little inconsistent. He looked great on some plays and lost on occasion. Maybe that was due to thinking a receiver was going to zig when he zagged instead.

I never saw him play in college, so maybe there's more to extrapolate from there than his limited action and tape with NE . . .

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33 minutes ago, Scooby1974 said:

Of course it was simplistic, it was one sentence. :)  What if he does get injured? You know we can't plan for that. What if I get injured on the way home from work today (assuming I have a job after typing all this dribble at work ;) ). The point isn't that trading the 2nd rounder is FAIL SAFE, the point is that having him for 2+ months helps to greatly reduce the UNKNOWN factors that would come with signing him AFTER the season and taking their chances.

Definitely...of course not.....but they'd know a WHOLE LOT MORE about him after 2 months with him than they would without him in the fold. They'd also know much more than they would after a day visit from a top QB in the draft process. It's clearly a calculated risk, no doubt.

They'll find out A LOT EARLIER to find out the "exact same thing if they had waited a few months" and BEFORE they sign him to an $80mill/4 year deal.

Date the dude for 2+ months and see if you want to marry him...OR...Marry him and THEN SEE if you should have married him. There is clearly much risk in both situations, but less risk in what they are doing IMO.

I would agree with most of this. Especially about hopefully having a job after typing a bunch on here ;) 

If they try him out, it only cost them a 2nd round pick. That 2nd round pick is practically a low 1st rounder, but still, it's only a draft pick vs an osweiler-type contract that ruins your franchise and is impossible to get out from under unless the Browns can help you out. 

 I get that they are only losing a pick vs 100 million or whatever that would come in a contract, but still... renting a player for 2 months and letting him walk away is something a contender does, not a rebuilder. I get it though... try him out, see how he does, and worse case is you trade your high 2nd for a low 3rd. Not that bad

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One thing that surprisingly hasn't been mentioned here is that back in April the Patriots decided to NOT trade JG regardless of what teams were offering. The reports from SF now confirm the stories from back in the summer that the Patriots simply were not willing to part with him regardless of what teams were offering.

Given that context... I'm curious to know what changed in those 6 months.

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3 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

One thing that surprisingly hasn't been mentioned here is that back in April the Patriots decided to NOT trade JG regardless of what teams were offering. The reports from SF now confirm the stories from back in the summer that the Patriots simply were not willing to part with him regardless of what teams were offering.

Given that context... I'm curious to know what changed in those 6 months.

This has already been mentioned. Teams weren't offering anywhere near what was being reported 6 months ago. The best offer was a 2nd rounder and either a mid round pick or two late round picks. And I do not for one second believe BB would not listen to any and all offers. IMO, the story line that NE would not trade him at any price was propoganda to drive up the offers,

NE didn't want to part with JG but had no way to keep him. They negotiated with him for 6 months and tried extending him on a high priced back up deal . . . not a low priced starter deal. He was interested and they didn't want to tag him. No way were they going to pay him $20+ million and have him make more than TB12 to not even play.

So they had no choice but to trade him.

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Joe Fann‏Verified account @Joe_Fann

Kyle Shanahan on Jimmy Garoppolo: "I can't promise you that he will play this year."

12:55 PM - 1 Nov 2017

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6 minutes ago, humpback said:

Joe Fann‏Verified account @Joe_Fann

Kyle Shanahan on Jimmy Garoppolo: "I can't promise you that he will play this year."

12:55 PM - 1 Nov 2017

:lmao: what?

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13 minutes ago, humpback said:

Joe Fann‏Verified account @Joe_Fann

Kyle Shanahan on Jimmy Garoppolo: "I can't promise you that he will play this year."

12:55 PM - 1 Nov 2017

Their OL without Staley and Brown is brutal, so don't want to get him killed.  Also, all joking aside, they probably don't want him contributing to possibly winning enough games to fall out of the top 2 draft position.

I have a feeling they are confident they can sign him to a long term contract and confident he is the guy for their system.  Getting him at this point was to give him a half season to get acclimated and learn the system.  Also, if they want to spend money on a WR in free agency, having a QB on board is a big step.

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46 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

This has already been mentioned. Teams weren't offering anywhere near what was being reported 6 months ago. The best offer was a 2nd rounder and either a mid round pick or two late round picks. And I do not for one second believe BB would not listen to any and all offers. IMO, the story line that NE would not trade him at any price was propoganda to drive up the offers,

NE didn't want to part with JG but had no way to keep him. They negotiated with him for 6 months and tried extending him on a high priced back up deal . . . not a low priced starter deal. He was interested and they didn't want to tag him. No way were they going to pay him $20+ million and have him make more than TB12 to not even play.

So they had no choice but to trade him.

Yea I'm not buying the "no offers considered" side of it... that always seemed like hyperbole to me. I'm more interested in why they even bothered to wait until the eleventh hour to pull the trigger though. The cost of insurance I suppose... but if one were to suppose that the Patriots had their backs to the wall, the niners got a deal in return.

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Just now, chinawildman said:

Yea I'm not buying the "no offers considered" side of it... that always seemed like hyperbole to me. I'm more interested in why they even bothered to wait until the eleventh hour to pull the trigger though. The cost of insurance I suppose... but if one were to suppose that the Patriots had their backs to the wall, the niners got a deal in return.

I listen to BB's radio interviews all the time. One of his most common sayings is "The rest of the league knows we are open for business." He has often referenced that teams know that NE is always eager to explore trade opportunities and have a reputation for making trades.

The narrative that NE would not even listen to trades for JG never made any sense. They may have been reluctant to want to trade him, but they would have listened and considered what ever came their way. BB would trade Brady is someone offered an out of the world offer for him.

As far as JG goes, I think most teams were not convinced he was the next big thing in THEIR system. Great for NE . . . but pretty unproven outside that comfort zone.Unless he got more game experience this year and did gang busters, I don't think NE stood a chance at this point in getting a first for him (given that he is an UFA after this year).

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This deal is all about negotiating rights and getting JG on a long term deal for SF.  On that score, this is an excellent deal for SF.  Whether this deal was made preseason or now is immaterial to the negotiating power that SF gets by pulling the trigger.  It is material on player evaluation, but whether or not JG is worth a high 2nd is for others to debate.

Firstly, if NE has him during the offseason, the niners would be part of a larger market bidding for him.  But it would be under NE's watchful eye.  NE would franchise JG and trade.  Now, any trade would likely be contingent upon JG agreeing to a long term contract, but NE and JG would control the leverage during the negotiations.  Now, SF controls the leverage.  If they are not able to get JG into a long term contract in time, they will franchise JG and he will bargain exclusively with SF.  And they have the leverage of leaving the franchise tag in place (which players don't like due to security) because of all the cap space they will have.  I'd expect a good, not great base deal heavy on incentives. 

Certainly it can be argued whether JG is the guy to merit this type of deal.  But it's clear that SF sees JG as their franchise QB so it is very good for them.  NE gets to jettison uncertainty that franchising would have brought.   

 

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15 minutes ago, Franknbeans said:

my theory is this wasn't entirely Belichick's call

Couldn't disagree more, with the success he has had in New England everything goes through BB.

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very very small sample size on JG ..he looks like a JAG to me . they mightve been better off trading for McCarron..I know he hasnt pkayed much either but he hung tough with Pitt in a playoff game that Burfict lost for Cincy. 

McCarron showed a lot of poise in the game..

I cant name the last ex-Patriots player or coach that amounted to a hill of beans elsewhere..except maybe Talib. thats troublesome. SF gave up a 2nd round pick which most likely is the 33rd pick in the NFL draft. thats huge.

I just havent seen the love affair with JG he just doesnt look like a special player or someone you'd trade for..he might be a F/A pickup but trade with a high pick? 

I guess sf feels hes their franchise guy. why shanahan couldnt sit tight and pick up Cousins in march ..his salary potential is dropping like a brick tossed in a lake..its not Cousins fault his line sucks.but he can walk next year and hes a proven commodity that neither AJM or JG are..

and on the Cowherd show today was news that the JG trade was orchestrated by Kraft b/c hes pals with Brady where BB and Brady are lukewarm with each other. what was being implied was BB mightve been looking past Brady post 2017 while Kraft thinks Brady has another 4-5 years left and so does Tom.. and that Brady wasnt happy about the Garappolo talk in 2018 and beyond.I guess they won and Bellichick lost that discussion. so now they have no b.u to Brady, a 40 something qb..and Hoyer is no qb.

Edited by Tanner9919
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1 hour ago, Tanner9919 said:

very very small sample size on JG ..he looks like a JAG to me . they mightve been better off trading for McCarron..I know he hasnt pkayed much either but he hung tough with Pitt in a playoff game that Burfict lost for Cincy. 

McCarron showed a lot of poise in the game..

I cant name the last ex-Patriots player or coach that amounted to a hill of beans elsewhere..except maybe Talib. thats troublesome. SF gave up a 2nd round pick which most likely is the 33rd pick in the NFL draft. thats huge.

I just havent seen the love affair with JG he just doesnt look like a special player or someone you'd trade for..he might be a F/A pickup but trade with a high pick? 

I guess sf feels hes their franchise guy. why shanahan couldnt sit tight and pick up Cousins in march ..his salary potential is dropping like a brick tossed in a lake..its not Cousins fault his line sucks.but he can walk next year and hes a proven commodity that neither AJM or JG are..

and on the Cowherd show today was news that the JG trade was orchestrated by Kraft b/c hes pals with Brady where BB and Brady are lukewarm with each other. what was being implied was BB mightve been looking past Brady post 2017 while Kraft thinks Brady has another 4-5 years left and so does Tom.. and that Brady wasnt happy about the Garappolo talk in 2018 and beyond.I guess they won and Bellichick lost that discussion. so now they have no b.u to Brady, a 40 something qb..and Hoyer is no qb.

You think Kraft is calling shots over the hoodie? You think Cousins is dropping like a rock? There’s a little craziness here.

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I think it was pretty smart on New England’s part to wait. Dealing him to an 0-8 team really helped ensure that the pick would be a high second rounder. I like this deal for both sides, I think Jimmy will be a good starter for a long time. 

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4 hours ago, Franknbeans said:

my theory is this wasn't entirely Belichick's call

This.  

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On 10/31/2017 at 5:01 PM, Deamon said:

I don't think the benchmark can be "top 10 qb".  That is a little aggressive.... they're not even giving that much up for him and we still don't know how much he's going to get paid.  18 Mill/year doesn't even crack the top 50% of nfl qb salaries.  If they pay him 18/year (16th highest paid qb next year), and get even top 15 production that is a big win considering their roster.  I still speculate that they will trade back and really help out their roster with a bunch of picks, while still having their franchise QB.  We will have to wait and see though, but love the aggressiveness and forward thinking of the team to not sit and wait for their guy to maybe get scooped up elsewhere.  Very small price to pay.

 

a high end 2nd rounder is a lot... especially for a guy that is going to hit the market in a couple months.

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4 hours ago, strong said:

 

a high end 2nd rounder is a lot... especially for a guy that is going to hit the market in a couple months.

Not if they don't want him to he won't.  That's kinda the idea.

He was going to be tagged and traded anyway.  They might have gotten him cheaper in the offeason, but instead they paid more to get him now.  He gets to familiarize himself with the coaches, players, and system which is rather important.  Oh yeah, not to mention, they ensure they actually GET him.  Open market?  Not so much.

Basically, I see why they made the move. 

Edited by ghostguy123

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23 hours ago, Dr. Dan said:

personally, I don't understand this trade. 

you're giving up one of the top 3 2nd round picks for a guy you can't guarantee will be on your roster in 6 months. that makes sense for a team like MIN maybe who is looking at the playoffs with questionmarls at qb.  not 49ers. 

If sf can extend him then this trade turns out to be worth it I think, but at what price? if hes good, he costs a ton (best FA qb). of he's not good do you even resign him? does he have a shot to be good over the next 8 weeks? Many people in here would say "well it's only been 2 months."

Why do the straight now? Why not do this trade 6 months ago? San Francisco does not need to make this trade now, so it's confusing

Actually they can guarantee he will be in the roster in six months

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11 hours ago, Tanner9919 said:

very very small sample size on JG ..he looks like a JAG to me .

 

Nah, the Jaguars are holding out for Cousins.

j/k

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18 hours ago, FF Ninja said:

There is a major difference between JG and AJ McCarron:

  • JG = UFA
  • McCarron = RFA

The Browns could put a 1st round tender on McCarron and keep him for $4M next year. The 49ers would have to use the franchise tag.

They can still have matching rights by slapping a transition tag or non-exclusive franchise tag on him.

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Just now, Short Corner said:

They can still have matching rights by slapping a transition tag or non-exclusive franchise tag on him.

Matching rights still means it's a bidding war, though. For teams without massive cap space, that matters (not sure where the Browns stand on that). If the Browns had not botched the trade, that would've presented them a nice, cheap way to try McCarron for a year. Instead, I'm guessing the Bengals put a 1st round tender on the RFA and see if anyone bites.

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Just now, FF Ninja said:

Matching rights still means it's a bidding war, though. For teams without massive cap space, that matters (not sure where the Browns stand on that). If the Browns had not botched the trade, that would've presented them a nice, cheap way to try McCarron for a year. Instead, I'm guessing the Bengals put a 1st round tender on the RFA and see if anyone bites.

It's a bidding war that they do  not have to participate in, ie make an over bid to ensure landing him.  If they go with the non-exclusive they receive two firsts as compensation if they choose not to match.

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1 minute ago, Short Corner said:

It's a bidding war that they do  not have to participate in, ie make an over bid to ensure landing him.  If they go with the non-exclusive they receive two firsts as compensation if they choose not to match.

True true, but again, money is not a problem in SF. 

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Just now, FF Ninja said:

True true, but again, money is not a problem in SF. 

Just because they have cap space doesn't make it prudent to burn it.  It's not about money anyway, it's about leverage and flexibility.

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16 hours ago, GroveDiesel said:

:lmao: what?

Seems like it may have just been made off the cuff, still kind of weird. Here's the full thing I think:

"I'm taking it one day at a time," Shanahan said. "I can't promise you that he'll play this week. I can't promise that he'll play this year. I know that we have a guy that we're excited about and I know has the ability to help this team in the future."

It will be a fluid situation moving forward.

"We didn't bring Jimmy here to save our season," Shanahan said on Wednesday. "We brought him here to make our organization better."

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1 minute ago, Short Corner said:

Just because they have cap space doesn't make it prudent to burn it.  It's not about money anyway, it's about leverage and flexibility.

My point remains that, if I was in their position, I'd rather burn cap space than an early 2nd rounder (and risk losing the 1.01 or 1.02).

Also, don't forget to factor in that draft picks (rookie contracts) are cheaper than free agents. Counterpoint to my own point: they're also riskier from a talent perspective. FAs carry risk, too, but less. But if they hit on ~2.02 then a comparable FA will cost millions more per year and may decline before the contract ends, resulting in dead cap space. So it is very possible this move costs them more than it saves them in cap. Not a big deal, but if in the end you're losing a 2nd round pick, lowering your draft order, and spending more money, that's just not good business. 

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13 minutes ago, humpback said:

"We didn't bring Jimmy here to save our season," Shanahan said on Wednesday. "We brought him here to make our organization better."

Beathard is definitely floundering though. The 9ers were pretty competitive with Hoyer, not so with CJB. They may have to get Garoppolo in there just to stabilize things.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006

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3 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Not a big deal, but if in the end you're losing a 2nd round pick, lowering your draft order, and spending more money, that's just not good business. 

 

Unless, of course, they hit on their franchise QB for the next 10+ years, in which case they will have made a screaming deal in their favor.  For some odd reason that possibility just doesn’t seem to enter into your equation.

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Just now, Bronco Billy said:

Unless, of course, they hit on their franchise QB for the next 10+ years, in which case they will have made a screaming deal in their favor.  For some odd reason that possibility just doesn’t seem to enter into your equation.

I guess you missed the part where I've been advocating for them to just spend their cap space on him as a free agent in a few months? (Like they're probably going to have to do anyway)

I've said this multiple times in this thread (and another, I think), but this is what I'd do if I was SF:

  • Keep my early 2nd round pick
  • Continue to lose
  • Get the 1.01 or 1.02 pick
  • Draft a QB - if and only if I like one of them (otherwise, trade back)
  • Use my massive cap space to sign JG (front load contract, so if he sucks I can cut him later without hurting my future cap situation)
  • Give him the keys to the car in year 1, let rookie QB sit a year (if I drafted one)
  • Use the early 2nd and all my other picks to build around those QBs

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28 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

True true, but again, money is not a problem in SF. 

 

But that is money that they can spend improving other positions.  I don’t understand why you’re so willing to ignore other factors in this discussion.  You’re so invested on a tunnel vision resolution that just cannot come out with SF getting a win on this deal.  I’m no huge fan of Garappolo but I can see the rationale behind the deal and it makes a lot of sense if SF’s management thinks Garappolo can be a decent or better starting QB over the next decade.

 

.

Edited by Bronco Billy
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Just now, Bronco Billy said:

But that is money that they can spend improving other positions.  I don’t understand why you’re so willing to ignore other factors in this discussion.  You’re so invested on a tunnel vision resoution that just cannot come out with SF getting a win on this deal.  I’m no huge fan of Garappolo but I can see the rationale behind the deal and it makes a lot of sense if SF’s management thinks Garappolo can be a decent or better starting QB over the next decade.

According to this, they've got $57M in cap space this year. So yeah, in theory they could be spending that money to improve other positions, but in reality it would probably just end up being unused cap space like 2017. But it is a moot point anyway, because like I said earlier, rookie contracts are cheaper than FAs. Throwing away the ~2.01 is going to cost them money if they sign a comparable player in the free agent market. Furthermore, we don't even know if they are going to save money because of this trade. It's certainly possible but it's also possible whatever contract they match is what they'd have had to pay without the trade. So this whole "this trade is maybe saving them money" is actually a very weak and flimsy argument on multiple fronts.

I don't have tunnel vision at all. I'm just rational about it. People are acting like each pro or con is worth the same. Like "oh, they lose the 2.01 but they might save $1M/year for 4 years, so it's a wash. They might play themselves out of the 1.01 but they get to watch JG get beat up behind a bad OL while he doesn't even know the playbook, so that evaluation period is worth the loss in draft capital." I'm sorry, but MAYBE saving a million or two per year over a 4 year contract is not worth that much to even cash strapped teams, which SF is not. This evaluation period will be marred by a lack of preparation time and an injured OL (not to mention the WR corps that was sketchy even before the season started). Do you not think the plan I laid out in the previous post has merit?

It largely seems like people are giving a rookie GM and rookie HC the benefit of the doubt without really questioning it at all.

 

 

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46 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

I guess you missed the part where I've been advocating for them to just spend their cap space on him as a free agent in a few months? (Like they're probably going to have to do anyway)

I've said this multiple times in this thread (and another, I think), but this is what I'd do if I was SF:

  • Keep my early 2nd round pick
  • Continue to lose
  • Get the 1.01 or 1.02 pick
  • Draft a QB - if and only if I like one of them (otherwise, trade back)
  • Use my massive cap space to sign JG (front load contract, so if he sucks I can cut him later without hurting my future cap situation)
  • Give him the keys to the car in year 1, let rookie QB sit a year (if I drafted one)
  • Use the early 2nd and all my other picks to build around those QBs

So you would sign the best FA QB to a massive deal, AND draft a QB in the first two picks. Ryan Pace, is that you??? 

That's terrible team management. Waste cap space AND a high draft pick on a QB, when that high draft pick could be a difference maker on defense, OL to protect your investment in your QB, or trade down for someone looking for a QB, netting more high quality players on a roster that's for the most part depleted of talent. 


What they did was the bets thing they could do, but they have to have JG after this season. They could have gotten a franchise guy for a 2nd round draft pick ready to start now. Not in 2-3 years. 

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16 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

According to this, they've got $57M in cap space this year. So yeah, in theory they could be spending that money to improve other positions, but in reality it would probably just end up being unused cap space like 2017. But it is a moot point anyway, because like I said earlier, rookie contracts are cheaper than FAs. Throwing away the ~2.01 is going to cost them money if they sign a comparable player in the free agent market. Furthermore, we don't even know if they are going to save money because of this trade. It's certainly possible but it's also possible whatever contract they match is what they'd have had to pay without the trade. So this whole "this trade is maybe saving them money" is actually a very weak and flimsy argument on multiple fronts.

I don't have tunnel vision at all. I'm just rational about it. People are acting like each pro or con is worth the same. Like "oh, they lose the 2.01 but they might save $1M/year for 4 years, so it's a wash. They might play themselves out of the 1.01 but they get to watch JG get beat up behind a bad OL while he doesn't even know the playbook, so that evaluation period is worth the loss in draft capital." I'm sorry, but MAYBE saving a million or two per year over a 4 year contract is not worth that much to even cash strapped teams, which SF is not. This evaluation period will be marred by a lack of preparation time and an injured OL (not to mention the WR corps that was sketchy even before the season started). Do you not think the plan I laid out in the previous post has merit?

It largely seems like people are giving a rookie GM and rookie HC the benefit of the doubt without really questioning it at all.

 

 

If he plays them out of 1.01/1.02 in these conditions then giving up the pick is probably well worth the leverage they received for it.

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

So you would sign the best FA QB to a massive deal, AND draft a QB in the first two picks. Ryan Pace, is that you??? 

That's terrible team management. Waste cap space AND a high draft pick on a QB, when that high draft pick could be a difference maker on defense, OL to protect your investment in your QB, or trade down for someone looking for a QB, netting more high quality players on a roster that's for the most part depleted of talent. 

What they did was the bets thing they could do, but they have to have JG after this season. They could have gotten a franchise guy for a 2nd round draft pick ready to start now. Not in 2-3 years. 

Hardly. That's covering your bases. This is a QB league. You can easily re-coup those costs if Jimmy hits by trading him or the QB you drafted. And if he doesn't? You've got yourself a well-groomed QB in the next season and you cut that front loaded contract. That's good business. Do you really want to put all your eggs in one basket during a rebuilding process? That would just be dumb. That's how teams get set back year after year. Was it dumb when Washington drafted Kirk Cousins after drafting RG3? Was it dumb when the Chargers drafted Rivers when they already had Brees? Never go all in on an unknown. And maybe you missed it, but I didn't say they had to draft a QB with 1.01. I said only if they love one of them. They could easily use that 2.01 instead or any number of other picks.

Also, when did JG become the best FA QB? He might turn out to be, but Cousins (who I'm not a huge fan of) will certainly demand top dollar. JG's contract was not going to be outrageous if he stayed in NE and SF has the cap space to front load it.

6 minutes ago, Short Corner said:

If he plays them out of 1.01/1.02 in these conditions then giving up the pick is probably well worth the leverage they received for it.

But what you're missing is that if this occurs then not only did they lose a lot of draft capital (huge loss), they also just drove up his contract price. ALSO, it's possible that he plays just well enough to win a couple games without actually putting the team on his back. Their current QB situation has been pretty bad. He doesn't have to do much to be a huge improvement.

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Current market comps to keep in mind: Brock Osweiler 4 years 72 million 37 million guaranteed, Mike Glennon 3 years 45 million 18.5 million guaranteed. Brian Hoyer made 10 million guaranteed for his 6 or 7 games with the 9ers this season.

Signing Garappolo on the open market is likely to have a floor around $15m/yr and 3 years with around 20 million guaranteed, plus the potential loss of a compensatory pick in 2019 (although it's highly unlikely Niners will be in the running for a comp pick), and waiting until at least 2021 to get a comp pick if he doesn't work out. In addition, if JG goes to FA, there is a chance you could pay more than $20m to acquire him, and a chance that the price exceeds what you are willing to pay.

Trading for Garappolo, paying 8 games of salary this year, and franchise tagging him next season will cost the Niners around $22m for 24 games, or $15m/yr, won't risk a comp pick loss in 2019 draft, and gives them a potential compensatory pick in 2020 (if he leaves in FA after 2018). If Garappolo is even competent at the position, the trade/franchise scenario is superior to signing him in FA. If Garappolo ends up being a 10 year starter, you might have to spend a little more cash in the trade/franchise scenario in 2019-20, but you have a franchise QB and that is absolutely worth it.

The chance of finding a competent QB in the early 2nd round is pretty slim. Between 2002 and 2013, 119 QBs were drafted at 2.33 or later, and the top 20 by career AV are: Russell Wilson, Matt Schaub, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, David Garrard, Matt Cassel, Colin Kaepernick, Kyle Orton, Josh McCown, Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor, Chad Henne, Nick Foles, Derek Anderson, Tarvaris Jackson, Trent Edwards, Brad Smith, Geno Smith, and Seneca Wallace. Only 6 of those players have winning records in their NFL careers. From that list, only 2 are considered true franchise caliber QBs, Wilson and Cousins, with split decisions on franchise caliber for Dalton, Taylor, and Kaepernick. A reasonable argument could be made for Schaub or Garrard had their careers not derailed. So maybe 7 players QBs worthy of a 2nd round pick in 11 years and 119 picks. I think it'd be reasonable to think that Garappolo has a 2/119 chance of becoming a Kirk Cousins, and I certainly give him at least a 7/119 chance of becoming a Schaub or better.

 

I don't think the 2nd round pick is a too-high price. I think the market favors acquiring the player through trade rather than free agency. Put those together, and I think the risk-benefit analysis favors the 49ers making the trade compared to standing pat.

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22 hours ago, humpback said:

Joe Fann‏Verified account @Joe_Fann

Kyle Shanahan on Jimmy Garoppolo: "I can't promise you that he will play this year."

12:55 PM - 1 Nov 2017

This would be GREAT. Don't screw up that high draft pick! Spend the next two months grooming, practicing, testing, watching film, etc. If he seems to be worth his salt, commit to signing him to a decent deal and you have a starting QB. Pick a stud or trade the top pick for more lesser pics.

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28 minutes ago, xrayveggin said:

Current market comps to keep in mind: Brock Osweiler 4 years 72 million 37 million guaranteed, Mike Glennon 3 years 45 million 18.5 million guaranteed. Brian Hoyer made 10 million guaranteed for his 6 or 7 games with the 9ers this season.

Signing Garappolo on the open market is likely to have a floor around $15m/yr and 3 years with around 20 million guaranteed, plus the potential loss of a compensatory pick in 2019 (although it's highly unlikely Niners will be in the running for a comp pick), and waiting until at least 2021 to get a comp pick if he doesn't work out. In addition, if JG goes to FA, there is a chance you could pay more than $20m to acquire him, and a chance that the price exceeds what you are willing to pay.

Trading for Garappolo, paying 8 games of salary this year, and franchise tagging him next season will cost the Niners around $22m for 24 games, or $15m/yr, won't risk a comp pick loss in 2019 draft, and gives them a potential compensatory pick in 2020 (if he leaves in FA after 2018). If Garappolo is even competent at the position, the trade/franchise scenario is superior to signing him in FA. If Garappolo ends up being a 10 year starter, you might have to spend a little more cash in the trade/franchise scenario in 2019-20, but you have a franchise QB and that is absolutely worth it.

The chance of finding a competent QB in the early 2nd round is pretty slim. Between 2002 and 2013, 119 QBs were drafted at 2.33 or later, and the top 20 by career AV are: Russell Wilson, Matt Schaub, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, David Garrard, Matt Cassel, Colin Kaepernick, Kyle Orton, Josh McCown, Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor, Chad Henne, Nick Foles, Derek Anderson, Tarvaris Jackson, Trent Edwards, Brad Smith, Geno Smith, and Seneca Wallace. Only 6 of those players have winning records in their NFL careers. From that list, only 2 are considered true franchise caliber QBs, Wilson and Cousins, with split decisions on franchise caliber for Dalton, Taylor, and Kaepernick. A reasonable argument could be made for Schaub or Garrard had their careers not derailed. So maybe 7 players QBs worthy of a 2nd round pick in 11 years and 119 picks. I think it'd be reasonable to think that Garappolo has a 2/119 chance of becoming a Kirk Cousins, and I certainly give him at least a 7/119 chance of becoming a Schaub or better.

 

I don't think the 2nd round pick is a too-high price. I think the market favors acquiring the player through trade rather than free agency. Put those together, and I think the risk-benefit analysis favors the 49ers making the trade compared to standing pat.


This. Not to mention that signing JG on the open market would require a long term contract, potentially burdening the 49ers even after he's departed if he falls on his face as a starter. People on this forum tend to forget that money isn't a fantasy in real football...

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19 hours ago, ghostguy123 said:

Not if they don't want him to he won't.  That's kinda the idea.

He was going to be tagged and traded anyway.  They might have gotten him cheaper in the offeason, but instead they paid more to get him now.  He gets to familiarize himself with the coaches, players, and system which is rather important.  Oh yeah, not to mention, they ensure they actually GET him.  Open market?  Not so much.

Basically, I see why they made the move. 

 

tagged and traded? wow. that would be a ballsy move by the patriots and every other team in the league would know that no way could they hold on to two QBs for roughly 40 mill in cap space for very long. wouldn't they?

what's to keep teams from just sticking it to them and watching them cut 5 other all pro players?

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If they bring in Joe Montana and Steve Young to talk to him and get him to stay and be happy, it'll work out.

Going from a well-oiled machine that always finds a way to win to a team that is "new" and loses often will really sting. Montana and Young would class up a yuck vibe he'll surely feel

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