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Was the Garoppolo trade a good or bad trade for the 49ers?

Was the Garappolo trade a good or bad trade for the 49ers?  

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5 hours ago, strong said:

 

tagged and traded? wow. that would be a ballsy move by the patriots and every other team in the league would know that no way could they hold on to two QBs for roughly 40 mill in cap space for very long. wouldn't they?

what's to keep teams from just sticking it to them and watching them cut 5 other all pro players?

The franchise tag can be pulled if JG doesn't sign it right away, and I think the cap is going up next year so I don't think they would have to cut 5 all pros to make up the 22ish million he would make. 

 The 49ers basically paid a small premium to make sure they got him. They probably could have gotten him for a 4th if he was franchised or tried to wait it out and bid for him against everyone else. 

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7 hours ago, strong said:

 

tagged and traded? wow. that would be a ballsy move by the patriots and every other team in the league would know that no way could they hold on to two QBs for roughly 40 mill in cap space for very long. wouldn't they?

what's to keep teams from just sticking it to them and watching them cut 5 other all pro players?

Because teams worry about their OWN teams more than they worry about others teams.  Because coaches and GMs don't want to get fired.  Unless of course you believe the 10 QB needy teams out there will all conspire to try and turn the Pats into bottom feeders like they are. 

Cmon, seriously?

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18 hours ago, xrayveggin said:

Current market comps to keep in mind: Brock Osweiler 4 years 72 million 37 million guaranteed, Mike Glennon 3 years 45 million 18.5 million guaranteed. Brian Hoyer made 10 million guaranteed for his 6 or 7 games with the 9ers this season.

Signing Garappolo on the open market is likely to have a floor around $15m/yr and 3 years with around 20 million guaranteed, plus the potential loss of a compensatory pick in 2019 (although it's highly unlikely Niners will be in the running for a comp pick), and waiting until at least 2021 to get a comp pick if he doesn't work out. In addition, if JG goes to FA, there is a chance you could pay more than $20m to acquire him, and a chance that the price exceeds what you are willing to pay.

Trading for Garappolo, paying 8 games of salary this year, and franchise tagging him next season will cost the Niners around $22m for 24 games, or $15m/yr, won't risk a comp pick loss in 2019 draft, and gives them a potential compensatory pick in 2020 (if he leaves in FA after 2018). If Garappolo is even competent at the position, the trade/franchise scenario is superior to signing him in FA. If Garappolo ends up being a 10 year starter, you might have to spend a little more cash in the trade/franchise scenario in 2019-20, but you have a franchise QB and that is absolutely worth it.

The chance of finding a competent QB in the early 2nd round is pretty slim. Between 2002 and 2013, 119 QBs were drafted at 2.33 or later, and the top 20 by career AV are: Russell Wilson, Matt Schaub, Andy Dalton, Ryan Fitzpatrick, David Garrard, Matt Cassel, Colin Kaepernick, Kyle Orton, Josh McCown, Kirk Cousins, Tyrod Taylor, Chad Henne, Nick Foles, Derek Anderson, Tarvaris Jackson, Trent Edwards, Brad Smith, Geno Smith, and Seneca Wallace. Only 6 of those players have winning records in their NFL careers. From that list, only 2 are considered true franchise caliber QBs, Wilson and Cousins, with split decisions on franchise caliber for Dalton, Taylor, and Kaepernick. A reasonable argument could be made for Schaub or Garrard had their careers not derailed. So maybe 7 players QBs worthy of a 2nd round pick in 11 years and 119 picks. I think it'd be reasonable to think that Garappolo has a 2/119 chance of becoming a Kirk Cousins, and I certainly give him at least a 7/119 chance of becoming a Schaub or better.

 

I don't think the 2nd round pick is a too-high price. I think the market favors acquiring the player through trade rather than free agency. Put those together, and I think the risk-benefit analysis favors the 49ers making the trade compared to standing pat.

:confused: Wat? The tag this year was $22M for a QB. That alone is more than Glennon got guaranteed. I'll mention it one more time, the 49ers had a ton of unused cap space this year, so acting like trading away the ~2.01 to save money is a good decision is just silly. Furthermore, the scenario you laid out does the opposite of save them money. You say that if they franchise him and he ends up being good enough to be a 10 year starter then they'll have had to spend a little more cash with the franchise option. No, if they franchise him they'll be spending $22M in ONE YEAR. And after that one year, going with the 10 year starter idea, then he'll obviously have proven himself over that one year and will now command much more money. So you have successfully blown an early 2nd round pick, paid $22M+ in 2018, and now signed a blockbuster QB contract in 2019-forward. How is that better than signing him as a FA??

So again I'll say the prudent thing would be to not waste a draft pick and sign him to a 3-4 year FA deal with a front loaded contract. If he busts, you cut him and you blew a bunch of 2018 cap space that was probably going to go unused anyway (like their 2017 cap). If he is a 10 year starter then you just got a hell of a deal for those first 3-4 years. 

17 hours ago, chinawildman said:


This. Not to mention that signing JG on the open market would require a long term contract, potentially burdening the 49ers even after he's departed if he falls on his face as a starter. People on this forum tend to forget that money isn't a fantasy in real football...

When an NFL franchise bankrupts an owner, let me know. Until then, cap space is something to be leveraged and utilized. Cleveland just paid $18M for a mid 2nd round pick (Osweiler trade). 

7 hours ago, strong said:

 

tagged and traded? wow. that would be a ballsy move by the patriots and every other team in the league would know that no way could they hold on to two QBs for roughly 40 mill in cap space for very long. wouldn't they?

what's to keep teams from just sticking it to them and watching them cut 5 other all pro players?

I could be wrong, but didn't the Pats tag and trade Matt Cassel to the Chiefs?

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6 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

:confused: Wat? The tag this year was $22M for a QB. That alone is more than Glennon got guaranteed. I'll mention it one more time, the 49ers had a ton of unused cap space this year, so acting like trading away the ~2.01 to save money is a good decision is just silly. Furthermore, the scenario you laid out does the opposite of save them money. You say that if they franchise him and he ends up being good enough to be a 10 year starter then they'll have had to spend a little more cash with the franchise option. No, if they franchise him they'll be spending $22M in ONE YEAR. And after that one year, going with the 10 year starter idea, then he'll obviously have proven himself over that one year and will now command much more money. So you have successfully blown an early 2nd round pick, paid $22M+ in 2018, and now signed a blockbuster QB contract in 2019-forward. How is that better than signing him as a FA??

So again I'll say the prudent thing would be to not waste a draft pick and sign him to a 3-4 year FA deal with a front loaded contract. If he busts, you cut him and you blew a bunch of 2018 cap space that was probably going to go unused anyway (like their 2017 cap). If he is a 10 year starter then you just got a hell of a deal for those first 3-4 years. 

When an NFL franchise bankrupts an owner, let me know. Until then, cap space is something to be leveraged and utilized. Cleveland just paid $18M for a mid 2nd round pick (Osweiler trade). 

I could be wrong, but didn't the Pats tag and trade Matt Cassel to the Chiefs?

Yes. Tagged and traded Cassel and MIke Vrabel on his last legs to KC for what I believe was the second pick of Round 2.

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It is beyond simple...if the Niners trust the talent evaluation of Shanahan and company and have identified Garappolo as legit you do not hesitate to make this deal...in the NFL you are squat without a legit QB and giving up a #2 is peanuts if he becomes one...it is actually less than peanuts...you do not screw around and let him get on the open-market as you no longer have control over this situation...the Niners are not in a position to get cute...the fact you have obtained the potential solution to your QB woes without giving up/using your very high #1 is a big-time bonus...IMO the only thing that matters here is talent evaluation...if a good offensive mind like Shanahan believes he can rebuild this franchise around Garappolo this deal is beyond a no-brainer...

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Just now, Anarchy99 said:

Yes. Tagged and traded Cassel and MIke Vrabel on his last legs to KC for what I believe was the second pick of Round 2.

Yeah, 2nd round pick was what I was thinking, too.

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1 minute ago, Boston said:

It is beyond simple...if the Niners trust the talent evaluation of Shanahan and company and have identified Garappolo as legit you do not hesitate to make this deal...in the NFL you are squat without a legit QB and giving up a #2 is peanuts if he becomes one...it is actually less than peanuts...you do not screw around and let him get on the open-market as you no longer have control over this situation...the Niners are not in a position to get cute...the fact you have obtained the potential solution to your QB woes without giving up/using your very high #1 is a big-time bonus...IMO the only thing that matters here is talent evaluation...if a good offensive mind like Shanahan believes he can rebuild this franchise around Garappolo this deal is beyond a no-brainer...

Did you miss the part where he's an unrestricted FA? They are either going to have to essentially give him a $22M+ guaranteed 1 year deal or pay (match) the open-market price anyway. They are paying an early 2nd round pick (and possibly playing themselves out of the 1.01) for one of the most questionable evaluation periods of all time. People keep saying this is a complicated playbook that takes over a year to learn. He's got weeks and he doesn't get the benefit of OTAs, training camp, or preseason. He probably won't even get full reps at practice because while he learns for a week or two the team still has to play on Sundays so I'm assuming whoever they use on Sundays will get at least some reps at practice during the week. Even if the playbook isn't complicated, throwing someone into the fire like that is going to be tough. Add to the fact that his teammates might be losing some steam after going 0-8 and an already problematic OL might lose their best player (Staley).

I get that you think it's worth a 2nd to evaluate him, but that assumes the person evaluating is good at it and the evaluation process is a good one. Maybe Shanahan is good at evaluating, maybe he feels pot committed to JG after dropping a 2nd on him here and signs him regardless next year while ignoring other available rookie QB prospects. Lots of maybes that cost some significant draft capital. However, there is no maybe about this evaluation period, though. It definitely will be rushed and messy.

All we know about Shanahan is that, like his mentor Kubiak, he's good a creating an effective offensive system* but he's crap at in game strategy. Kubiak lost Houston multiple games with bad play calling strategy and Shanahan lost the super bowl due to bad play calling strategy. A good coach Mon-Sat, as they say. We really don't know how good he is as an evaluator.

*He did have the benefit of a plus QB and one of the best WRs and best OLs last year. He wasn't as good with a poor OL in 2015.

This is what's simple:

Quote

I've said this multiple times in this thread (and another, I think), but this is what I'd do if I was SF:

  • Keep my early 2nd round pick
  • Continue to lose
  • Get the 1.01 or 1.02 pick
  • Draft a QB - if and only if I like one of them (otherwise, trade back)
  • Use my massive cap space to sign JG (front load contract, so if he sucks I can cut him later without hurting my future cap situation)
  • Give him the keys to the car in year 1, let rookie QB sit a year (if I drafted one)
  • Use the early 2nd and all my other picks to build around those QBs

 

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Has anyone in the front office explained their logic for pulling this deal right now rather than waiting to see how the QB market looks in the offseason from the potential rookies they can draft to guys like cousins and JG?

I dont believe i have seen anything yet.

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Just now, ghostguy123 said:

Has anyone in the front office explained their logic for pulling this deal right now rather than waiting to see how the QB market looks in the offseason from the potential rookies they can draft to guys like cousins and JG?

I dont believe i have seen anything yet.

Don't forget Drew Brees will also be available. I know Bradford is hurt right now, but he will be a FA as will Teddy, I believe. 

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8 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Did you miss the part where he's an unrestricted FA? They are either going to have to essentially give him a $22M+ guaranteed 1 year deal or pay (match) the open-market price anyway. They are paying an early 2nd round pick (and possibly playing themselves out of the 1.01) for one of the most questionable evaluation periods of all time. People keep saying this is a complicated playbook that takes over a year to learn. He's got weeks and he doesn't get the benefit of OTAs, training camp, or preseason. He probably won't even get full reps at practice because while he learns for a week or two the team still has to play on Sundays so I'm assuming whoever they use on Sundays will get at least some reps at practice during the week. Even if the playbook isn't complicated, throwing someone into the fire like that is going to be tough. Add to the fact that his teammates might be losing some steam after going 0-8 and an already problematic OL might lose their best player (Staley).

I get that you think it's worth a 2nd to evaluate him, but that assumes the person evaluating is good at it and the evaluation process is a good one. Maybe Shanahan is good at evaluating, maybe he feels pot committed to JG after dropping a 2nd on him here and signs him regardless next year while ignoring other available rookie QB prospects. Lots of maybes that cost some significant draft capital. However, there is no maybe about this evaluation period, though. It definitely will be rushed and messy.

All we know about Shanahan is that, like his mentor Kubiak, he's good a creating an effective offensive system* but he's crap at in game strategy. Kubiak lost Houston multiple games with bad play calling strategy and Shanahan lost the super bowl due to bad play calling strategy. A good coach Mon-Sat, as they say. We really don't know how good he is as an evaluator.

*He did have the benefit of a plus QB and one of the best WRs and best OLs last year. He wasn't as good with a poor OL in 2015.

This is what's simple:

 

No need to get in a back and fourth (I will drop it after this)...I do not agree with you (as 3/4 in the poll don’t) and quite frankly you seem to have dug your heels in....this team was 100% going to address their QB situation and either money or a high first round pick was the only other way it was going to get solved...no ifs, ands or buts about it...if I had to guess they are not enthralled with the current rookie crop and free agency could have some real competition if Elway gets involved or The Jags and a great tax situation in Florida is desirable to a free agent (and outside of potentially Cousins who else is gonna be out there)...at the end of the day your argument seems to be San Fran’s front office is not good at talent evaluation...so does that mean they do nothing until they get fired...they should not go after any QB because they can not ID one in your opinion...not sure what you think the right thing is because it can not be the draft if you don’t trust their talent evaluation...also, you are assuming they got him now to evaluate him while they may have already done their homework and right now they have decided he is their guy (that press conference had the feel of it)...if you want to argue that you don’t think Jimmy G is that talented then that is legit but IMO if you are a franchise and have decided this kid has the talent to be a high-level starter and you do not make that deal because you don’t want to trade a #2 that is beyond inept...it is near impossible to win at a high-level in the NFL without a legit QB and if a team’s front-office feels they have found that guy you go get him because if you don’t figure out that position you are going to lose your job...

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14 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Don't forget Drew Brees will also be available. I know Bradford is hurt right now, but he will be a FA as will Teddy, I believe. 

I realize you are list listing these buys, but. Yeah, I'm sure Brees would just LOVE to come play for the niners. Haha. Brandford is ALWAYS hurt and Teddy is too. One of those two jokers and their balky bodies are going to stay in Minny most likely, unless Minny tosses both and outbids for Cousins or JG.

 

 

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On ‎11‎/‎2‎/‎2017 at 9:07 AM, FF Ninja said:

 Throwing away the ~2.01

If Garrapolo is their guy - they will easily recoup the value of that 2.01 when they trade down from the 1.01 to a team that falls in love with one of the rookie QBs.

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3 minutes ago, Boston said:

No need to get in a back and fourth (I will drop it after this)...I do not agree with you (as 3/4 in the poll don’t) and quite frankly you seem to have dug your heels in....this team was 100% going to address their QB situation and either money or a high first round pick was the only other way it was going to get solved...no ifs, ands or buts about it...if I had to guess they are not enthralled with the current rookie crop and free agency could have some real competition if Elway gets involved or The Jags and a great tax situation in Florida is desirable to a free agent (and outside of potentially Cousins who else is gonna be out there)...at the end of the day your argument seems to be San Fran’s front office is not good at talent evaluation...

Wtf? Where did you get that? My point remains that the evaluation period is going to be wrought with problems - no chemistry, no time to learn playbook, no time for reps, bad OL, 0-8 team, etc. I was merely adding that "maybe" as a minor point... that we don't know that Shanahan is a good talent evaluator to begin with, much less one that could see through the total mess. So I'm not saying he's bad, just that the team is putting a lot of faith in both the quality of the evaluation period and his ability to evaluate.

7 minutes ago, Boston said:

so does that mean they do nothing until they get fired...they should not go after any QB because they can not ID one in your opinion...not sure what you think the right thing is because it can not be the draft if you don’t trust their talent evaluation...

:wall: I've only listed it a million times... oh and I quoted it in my last reply to you.

I mainly don't trust the evaluation situation.

12 minutes ago, Boston said:

also, you are assuming they got him now to evaluate him while they may have already done their homework and right now they have decided he is their guy (that press conference had the feel of it)...if you want to argue that you don’t think Jimmy G is that talented then that is legit but IMO if you are a franchise and have decided this kid has the talent to be a high-level starter and you do not make that deal because you don’t want to trade a #2 that is beyond inept...it is near impossible to win at a high-level in the NFL without a legit QB and if a team’s front-office feels they have found that guy you go get him because if you don’t figure out that position you are going to lose your job...

This makes no sense at all. If they've already decided he's their guy, then sign him as a FA. He's an unrestricted FA. I keep saying this, but people keep missing it. They are going to have to match the highest offer for him anyway OR they are going to have to franchise him which would be a crazy overpay. And then he'll still be a FA again in one year.

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

If Garrapolo is their guy - they will easily recoup the value of that 2.01 when they trade down from the 1.01 to a team that falls in love with one of the rookie QBs.

Exactly...they now have far more options with that pick...they could actually end up obtaining more picks because of this deal then if they had not done it...

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4 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Wtf? Where did you get that? My point remains that the evaluation period is going to be wrought with problems - no chemistry, no time to learn playbook, no time for reps, bad OL, 0-8 team, etc. I was merely adding that "maybe" as a minor point... that we don't know that Shanahan is a good talent evaluator to begin with, much less one that could see through the total mess. So I'm not saying he's bad, just that the team is putting a lot of faith in both the quality of the evaluation period and his ability to evaluate.

:wall: I've only listed it a million times... oh and I quoted it in my last reply to you.

I mainly don't trust the evaluation situation.

This makes no sense at all. If they've already decided he's their guy, then sign him as a FA. He's an unrestricted FA. I keep saying this, but people keep missing it. They are going to have to match the highest offer for him anyway OR they are going to have to franchise him which would be a crazy overpay. And then he'll still be a FA again in one year.

What makes absolutely no sense is the fact they would automatically end up with him if he is a free agent...you have absolutely no clue that is a definite...sorry, I said I was not gonna reply...

Edited by Boston
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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

This makes no sense at all. If they've already decided he's their guy, then sign him as a FA. He's an unrestricted FA. I keep saying this, but people keep missing it. They are going to have to match the highest offer for him anyway OR they are going to have to franchise him which would be a crazy overpay. And then he'll still be a FA again in one year.

Applying the franchise tag gives them leverage in a long term negotiation and/or a full one year evaluation period without a long term commitment - and as you've even said numerous time they have the luxury of being able to spend that kind of money.

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3 minutes ago, Boston said:

Exactly...they now have far more options with that pick...they could actually end up obtaining more picks because of this deal then if they had not done it...

All we have to do is look at the last two drafts where teams got major hauls for Goff, Wentz, Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson.

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1 minute ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Applying the franchise tag gives them leverage in a long term negotiation and/or a full one year evaluation period without a long term commitment - and as you've even said numerous time they have the luxury of being able to spend that kind of money.

The last thing they want (and the Pats as well) is a scenario where he does a free agent trip to Denver with Elway whispering in his ear...

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Wtf? Where did you get that? My point remains that the evaluation period is going to be wrought with problems - no chemistry, no time to learn playbook, no time for reps, bad OL, 0-8 team, etc. I was merely adding that "maybe" as a minor point... that we don't know that Shanahan is a good talent evaluator to begin with, much less one that could see through the total mess. So I'm not saying he's bad, just that the team is putting a lot of faith in both the quality of the evaluation period and his ability to evaluate.

:wall: I've only listed it a million times... oh and I quoted it in my last reply to you.

I mainly don't trust the evaluation situation.

This makes no sense at all. If they've already decided he's their guy, then sign him as a FA. He's an unrestricted FA. I keep saying this, but people keep missing it. They are going to have to match the highest offer for him anyway OR they are going to have to franchise him which would be a crazy overpay. And then he'll still be a FA again in one year.

There is no guarantee that coming in with the highest offer would land him.  They also don't have to play the posturing game and come in with an overbid.

The evaluation period is what it is.  Two months longer than the alternative.

Shanahan's ability t evaluate is irrelevant.  

Don't know why you bring up Kubiak.

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

If Garrapolo is their guy - they will easily recoup the value of that 2.01 when they trade down from the 1.01 to a team that falls in love with one of the rookie QBs.

Man, I'm guessing you haven't read the thread but I've already addressed this quite a few times. 

  • If this evaluation period clearly shows he's their guy and they don't need a QB then that means he won a few games and they just played themselves out of the 1.01 which is a huge loss in draft capital in addition to the 2.01 they would've had if they stayed the course. This is a point I've made a few times that everyone wants to ignore. If they wait out the season and keep losing, they had a lot of unused cap space this year so theoretically they could sign JG to a front loaded contract (to burn cap space that would've gone unused) as a FA and then do what they want with the 1.01 and 2.01. If JG busts, they cut him and don't hurt future cap situations and maybe have a QB on a cheap rookie contract who has been groomed for a year to throw into the fold in 2019.
  • I don't see how throwing him into the fire will provide a good and accurate evaluation
    • Supposedly this playbook takes a year to learn, he's got weeks
    • He's gets no OTAs, training camp, or preseason
    • No chemistry with receiving corps
    • OL play has been bad, now the best player (LT Staley) may be out
    • The team is 0-8 so players could be losing motivation
  • If they pass on a QB due to this sketchy evaluation period and match the highest offer for him and he busts then they just set themselves back a couple years and lost a lot of draft capital.

I honestly don't have a feel for JG. I think he could be very good. It's in the realm of realistic possibilities. I just think strategically the rookie GM and rookie HC totally botched this. You don't trade for a unrestricted free agent mid-season unless you've already got a contract extension in place (or if you're in the playoff hunt and need a rental).

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10 minutes ago, Boston said:

What makes absolutely no sense is the fact they would automatically end up with him if he is a free agent...you have absolutely no clue that is a definite...sorry, I said I was not gonna reply...

They had $57M in unused cap space this year. You can't tell me with a straight face that if they wanted him they might not be able to get him. Prices for unproven UFA QBs have been roughly established recently so we've got an idea of what he would cost. They can EASILY afford it. This is a very weak point.

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10 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Man, I'm guessing you haven't read the thread but I've already addressed this quite a few times. 

  • If this evaluation period clearly shows he's their guy and they don't need a QB then that means he won a few games and they just played themselves out of the 1.01 which is a huge loss in draft capital in addition to the 2.01 they would've had if they stayed the course. This is a point I've made a few times that everyone wants to ignore. If they wait out the season and keep losing, they had a lot of unused cap space this year so theoretically they could sign JG to a front loaded contract (to burn cap space that would've gone unused) as a FA and then do what they want with the 1.01 and 2.01. If JG busts, they cut him and don't hurt future cap situations and maybe have a QB on a cheap rookie contract who has been groomed for a year to throw into the fold in 2019.
  • I don't see how throwing him into the fire will provide a good and accurate evaluation
    • Supposedly this playbook takes a year to learn, he's got weeks
    • He's gets no OTAs, training camp, or preseason
    • No chemistry with receiving corps
    • OL play has been bad, now the best player (LT Staley) may be out
    • The team is 0-8 so players could be losing motivation
  • If they pass on a QB due to this sketchy evaluation period and match the highest offer for him and he busts then they just set themselves back a couple years and lost a lot of draft capital.

I honestly don't have a feel for JG. I think he could be very good. It's in the realm of realistic possibilities. I just think strategically the rookie GM and rookie HC totally botched this. You don't trade for a unrestricted free agent mid-season unless you've already got a contract extension in place (or if you're in the playoff hunt and need a rental).

You keep bringing up they could just sign him as a UFA, but it isn't that simple. The Pats could franchise and trade him, if he isn't franchised he would have to choose the 49ers with other people trying to sign him, and lastly my guess is the Pats had another trade set up to move JG before the deadline, which means they might not have ever had a chance to get him if they didn't strike then. 

Edited by msudaisy26
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4 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

They had $57M in unused cap space this year. You can't tell me with a straight face that if they wanted him they might not be able to get him. Prices for unproven UFA QBs have been roughly established recently so we've got an idea of what he would cost. They can EASILY afford it. This is a very weak point.

You realize that the contract is a two-party agreement, right?

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14 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Applying the franchise tag gives them leverage in a long term negotiation and/or a full one year evaluation period without a long term commitment - and as you've even said numerous time they have the luxury of being able to spend that kind of money.

Then front load the UFA contract so that the cap space that would've been unused goes to use. Don't spend the 2.01 just to give him a 1-year $22M+ contract. That's a lose-lose.

FWIW, this hasn't really been brought up, but the year Brock was a FA was kind of a crazy year. There were no good options and several teams competing for him. This year there are viable rookies and several FA options. 

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Man, I'm guessing you haven't read the thread but I've already addressed this quite a few times. 

  • If this evaluation period clearly shows he's their guy and they don't need a QB then that means he won a few games and they just played themselves out of the 1.01 which is a huge loss in draft capital in addition to the 2.01 they would've had if they stayed the course.

No it doesn't. He can play well and the team can still lose and even dropping to the 1.02 wouldn't keep them from getting a huge return on their pick (see. Mariotta, Wentz and Trubisky).

There are numerous ways they can evaluate him besides just game action as well: practices, they can look at college game film (like they would with a rookie), they can look at his film from preseason and regular season games with New England. Frankly, I think they already know he's their guy but they can now even further assess him.

 

 

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Just now, Short Corner said:

You realize that the contract is a two-party agreement, right?

Yes, and you realize unproven QBs don't typically shut the door when you back up a dump truck full of money, right? 

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13 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

They had $57M in unused cap space this year. You can't tell me with a straight face that if they wanted him they might not be able to get him. Prices for unproven UFA QBs have been roughly established recently so we've got an idea of what he would cost. They can EASILY afford it. This is a very weak point.

You reeled me in...what evidence do you have that Jimmy G would sign with San Fran no matter what or another team would not make a similar offer...actually, let me answer that for you...you don’t...no one does...which is why San Fran did the smart thing and decided they would control their own destiny at the single most important position in football rather then have to wait a whole months what may or may not happen...please stop pretending they gave up a whole lot  like it took to get Goff or Wentz...they didn’t...it was a real nice second round pick for a team that now feels they have a QB and because of that have about 5,000 more options of what they can do this offseason...

Edited by Boston
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Just now, Dr. Octopus said:

No it doesn't. He can play well and the team can still lose and even dropping to the 1.02 wouldn't keep them from getting a huge return on their pick (see. Mariotta, Wentz and Trubisky).

There are numerous ways they can evaluate him besides just game action as well: practices, they can look at college game film (like they would with a rookie), they can look at his film from preseason and regular season games with New England. Frankly, I think they already know he's their guy but they can now even further assess him.

It's still a huge risk and a very, very, very questionable evaluation period.

They could've done all those things for free except substitute practice for flying him in for a personal try out.

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1 minute ago, FF Ninja said:

Yes, and you realize unproven QBs don't typically shut the door when you back up a dump truck full of money, right? 

You do understand that free agency means he legally does not have to sign with San Fran.

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Just now, Boston said:

You do understand that free agency means he legally does not have to sign with San Fran.

The probability of landing a franchise QB at 2.01 is greater than the odds of an unrestricted FA turning down the best contract offered.

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2 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Yes, and you realize unproven QBs don't typically shut the door when you back up a dump truck full of money, right? 

He has multiple suitors.  He could go with a slightly smaller dump truck with a better situation.  This isn't a FAB situation.

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16 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

All we have to do is look at the last two drafts where teams got major hauls for Goff, Wentz, Trubisky, Mahomes and Watson.

They may have gotten "major hauls", but I'd argue that some if not most of them would have been better off staying put. That's the other side of the coin in this- sure they can franchise him but that likely means they are punting on this QB class by doing so, which may or may not backfire.

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The argument seems to be that people with questionable talent evaluation skills are better off making this decision based on a personal workout in shorts over having a guy in your building and practice fields mixing in with his teammates and coaches for the next five months...I guess I now get it...

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2 minutes ago, Short Corner said:

He has multiple suitors.  He could go with a slightly smaller dump truck with a better situation.  This isn't a FAB situation.

Exactly...his example is as if San Fran would be willing to spend 20 million more on him than anyone else...now that would actually be asinine...

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13 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Yes, and you realize unproven QBs don't typically shut the door when you back up a dump truck full of money, right? 

How about when 4-5 TEAMS back up a dump truck full of money? Seems to me he would have had the choice.....NOW he DOESN'T if they pay him 1 year and lock him down.

Come on man...

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22 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

They had $57M in unused cap space this year. You can't tell me with a straight face that if they wanted him they might not be able to get him. Prices for unproven UFA QBs have been roughly established recently so we've got an idea of what he would cost. They can EASILY afford it. This is a very weak point.

Can they AFFORD IT, Yes. But if he looks at the Denver D and the WR core and then looks at SF....and they are both offering similar money...and he wants to WIN NOW...where is more likely to sign?

 

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19 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Then front load the UFA contract so that the cap space that would've been unused goes to use.

See that's what I've been missing. I didn't realize that the 49ers called all the shots during contract negotiations on the open market - and that Jimmy had no other options.

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17 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

No it doesn't. He can play well and the team can still lose and even dropping to the 1.02 wouldn't keep them from getting a huge return on their pick (see. Mariotta, Wentz and Trubisky).

There are numerous ways they can evaluate him besides just game action as well: practices, they can look at college game film (like they would with a rookie), they can look at his film from preseason and regular season games with New England. Frankly, I think they already know he's their guy but they can now even further assess him.

 

 

This! And Shanny already eluded to the fact that he may NOT PLAY or may not play MUCH. Frankly, now with Garcon shut down (their best WR)...I'm just not sure how SF will strike any sort of fear in teams they are playing.

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15 minutes ago, Boston said:

The argument seems to be that people with questionable talent evaluation skills are better off making this decision based on a personal workout in shorts over having a guy in your building and practice fields mixing in with his teammates and coaches for the next five months...I guess I now get it...

The argument doesn't seem to be anything. I've very carefully laid out my argument. I've even specifically said the talent evaluation is merely an unknown and it was a minor point. Why are you ignoring that it's already been addressed? The unknown talent evaluation is not a key point. Stop acting like it was my chief complaint. Go back to the bullet points I quoted to you. That is clearly "the argument". 

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19 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

It's still a huge risk and a very, very, very questionable evaluation period.

They could've done all those things for free except substitute practice for flying him in for a personal try out.

Which do you think is better? - not to mention that high demand free agents generally do not "try out" only fringe players that need to do that.

Plus they will also get him real game action in this scenario and he now gets extra time in their system (which is very valuable).

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19 minutes ago, humpback said:

They may have gotten "major hauls", but I'd argue that some if not most of them would have been better off staying put. That's the other side of the coin in this- sure they can franchise him but that likely means they are punting on this QB class by doing so, which may or may not backfire.

Of course there is risk. There is with almost any decision. Teams have to assess and weigh all those risks. Is San Fran right here? Obviously none of us know for sure.

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1 hour ago, FF Ninja said:

When an NFL franchise bankrupts an owner, let me know. Until then, cap space is something to be leveraged and utilized. Cleveland just paid $18M for a mid 2nd round pick (Osweiler trade). 

I've said this multiple times in this thread (and another, I think), but this is what I'd do if I was SF:

  • Keep my early 2nd round pick
  • Continue to lose
  • Get the 1.01 or 1.02 pick
  • Draft a QB - if and only if I like one of them (otherwise, trade back)
  • Use my massive cap space to sign JG (front load contract, so if he sucks I can cut him later without hurting my future cap situation)
  • Give him the keys to the car in year 1, let rookie QB sit a year (if I drafted one)
  • Use the early 2nd and all my other picks to build around those QBs

So there we have it... Your opinion that real money is of no importance to owners/GMs is clearly the source of dissonance between why you feel the deal sucks and others think it was a prudent move. Even putting that aside, cap space is still nonetheless affected by multiple long term contracts (as you've suggested in getting JG AND a 1st rd QB under contract). 

What gets me is your crazy proposal of paying huge upfront money for 2 QBs. This scenario is completely unrealistic and fraught with strange assumptions. 

  1. What is it you mean exactly by "front-loading" a contract? Are you talking about an enormous signing bonus? Ability to cut the cord at any time like the Kaepernick deal?
  2. Why would JG's agent go for a "try before you buy" deal with the niners if there are other suitors with long term, secure deals? Remember he's on the open market in your scenario.
  3. And what about the 1st round rookie QB? The rookie QB's agent would have to be an idiot to go for some short term deal knowing JG is on the roster. If JG turns out, then you've got to potentially renegotiate w/ him because now he's getting paid scraps AND deal with the salary implications of a highly drafted rookie QB that's sitting doing nothing. Sounds like you just threw away your 1st round pick.

So not only is real money NOT IMPORTANT in your opinion, but you also presume that the niners GMs can basically have their way with agents and dictate terms of deals. :lmao: 

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30 minutes ago, Scooby1974 said:

How about when 4-5 TEAMS back up a dump truck full of money? Seems to me he would have had the choice.....NOW he DOESN'T if they pay him 1 year and lock him down.

Come on man...

Oh come on...how often do NFL teams give out monster contracts to a QB...oh, wait, nevermind...

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46 minutes ago, FF Ninja said:

Man, I'm guessing you haven't read the thread but I've already addressed this quite a few times. 

  • If this evaluation period clearly shows he's their guy and they don't need a QB then that means he won a few games and they just played themselves out of the 1.01 which is a huge loss in draft capital in addition to the 2.01 they would've had if they stayed the course. This is a point I've made a few times that everyone wants to ignore. If they wait out the season and keep losing, they had a lot of unused cap space this year so theoretically they could sign JG to a front loaded contract (to burn cap space that would've gone unused) as a FA and then do what they want with the 1.01 and 2.01. If JG busts, they cut him and don't hurt future cap situations and maybe have a QB on a cheap rookie contract who has been groomed for a year to throw into the fold in 2019.
  • I don't see how throwing him into the fire will provide a good and accurate evaluation
    • Supposedly this playbook takes a year to learn, he's got weeks
    • He's gets no OTAs, training camp, or preseason
    • No chemistry with receiving corps
    • OL play has been bad, now the best player (LT Staley) may be out
    • The team is 0-8 so players could be losing motivation
  • If they pass on a QB due to this sketchy evaluation period and match the highest offer for him and he busts then they just set themselves back a couple years and lost a lot of draft capital.

I honestly don't have a feel for JG. I think he could be very good. It's in the realm of realistic possibilities. I just think strategically the rookie GM and rookie HC totally botched this. You don't trade for a unrestricted free agent mid-season unless you've already got a contract extension in place (or if you're in the playoff hunt and need a rental).

We've been over your bullet points a million times and it seems nobody is buying them, hence the pushback.

1. You assume the "evaluation process" is starting when JG hits the ground in SF when it actually started YEARS AGO. Shanny liked the kid YEARS ago. I'm sure he has watched every bit of tape on him, has spoken with all the people you think he hasn't, it is likely all the "due dilligence" you ASSUME hasn't been done actually HAS been done and the risk of not having a high 2nd round pick has been weighed in light of him being as good as he appears he could be.

2. You ASSUME he is going to play AND WIN with this SF culture/current roster and as you have said no OTA's/preseason/practice/half a season gone---EXTREMELY UNLIKELY. Shanny has eluded to the fact that he may not at all. For all the reasons you mention that it would be dangerous to toss him in there, that may be exactly what SF believes too. So why risk bodily injury on a guy you are 95% sure is YOUR GUY moving forward already? Why win and decrease chances at the top pick? Do you think YOU are the ONLY PERSON to think this? haha. Let him sit and watch Beathard get killed and listen to him break down film, see what he thinks, practice and watch him back up everything you already thought about him. See what he would have done in the situation, etc....then add that to the impression you had of him when you traded a 2nd for him (not two first, a 3rd, and a conditional pick to be named later).

You want to talk about  :wall: ??? Maybe your IQ is just too high for your own good. I know a LOT of really smart people that have very little common sense. You are better than this Ninja. :)
 

 

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23 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Of course there is risk. There is with almost any decision. Teams have to assess and weigh all those risks. Is San Fran right here? Obviously none of us know for sure.

That's all I'm saying. No idea why so many people think this is set in stone either way, it's all speculation and we'll never really have the answer.

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7 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

Which do you think is better? - not to mention that high demand free agents generally do not "try out" only fringe players that need to do that.

Plus they will also get him real game action in this scenario and he now gets extra time in their system (which is very valuable).

I'm pretty sure inexperienced FA QB do perform individual workouts, but can't claim to be 100% sure.

Of course this questionable evaluation period is better than an individual try out, but I'm not convinced it is worth the 2.01 and possibly playing themselves out of the 1.01.

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1 minute ago, FF Ninja said:

I'm pretty sure inexperienced FA QB do perform individual workouts, but can't claim to be 100% sure.

Of course this questionable evaluation period is better than an individual try out, but I'm not convinced it is worth the 2.01 and possibly playing themselves out of the 1.01.

If they play themselves out of the 1.1 doesn't that mean Jimmy G is doing a very good job and you now know he is legit?  

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26 minutes ago, chinawildman said:

So there we have it... Your opinion that real money is of no importance to owners/GMs is clearly the source of dissonance between why you feel the deal sucks and others think it was a prudent move. Even putting that aside, cap space is still nonetheless affected by multiple long term contracts (as you've suggested in getting JG AND a 1st rd QB under contract). 

What gets me is your crazy proposal of paying huge upfront money for 2 QBs. This scenario is completely unrealistic and fraught with strange assumptions. 

  1. What is it you mean exactly by "front-loading" a contract? Are you talking about an enormous signing bonus? Ability to cut the cord at any time like the Kaepernick deal?
  2. Why would JG's agent go for a "try before you buy" deal with the niners if there are other suitors with long term, secure deals? Remember he's on the open market in your scenario.
  3. And what about the 1st round rookie QB? The rookie QB's agent would have to be an idiot to go for some short term deal knowing JG is on the roster. If JG turns out, then you've got to potentially renegotiate w/ him because now he's getting paid scraps AND deal with the salary implications of a highly drafted rookie QB that's sitting doing nothing. Sounds like you just threw away your 1st round pick.

So not only is real money NOT IMPORTANT in your opinion, but you also presume that the niners GMs can basically have their way with agents and dictate terms of deals. :lmao: 

Correct. NFL franchises are wildly profitable. The cap space money is a drop in the bucket. So what's your point?

Beyond that, as I've already mentioned, this move could easily cost them more money than it saves. Among other things, replacing a rookie 2.01 contract with a free agent contract with a comparable player will cost millions over what that 4 year rookie contract would be.

ETA:

What do you mean about paying huge upfront money to 2 QBs? They pay JG and draft a rookie or two anywhere in the draft. That's one FA contract and one rookie contract. Not two huge contracts.

1. If you don't understand a front loaded contract, google can probably help you. 

2. He's on the open market anyway. He's an unrestricted FA. Plus, I never asserted he'd give them a try before you buy deal. Seemed you understood that when addressing the front loaded contract.

3. I guess you are not familiar with rookie contract. The rookie QB, regardless of round taken, has a largely predetermined contract based on draft position. Some teams prefer to groom a rookie QB for one year, such as the case was with Rivers and Palmer. 

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