Concept Coop
Footballguy
I voted "bad trade" at the time, and was wrong. Great trade.
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Was the Garoppolo trade a good or bad trade for the 49ers? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter FF Ninja
- Start date
hoffman0001
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It doesn’t negate them though.
If garapolo’s upside is no greater than a Cousins or whoever then yeah, risk is mitigated.
But if Garapolo is indeed in the next gen mix with Watson, Gough, etc and the Pats already had him 1. In their system already & 2. Familiar with the offense (which he undoubtedly is) then they’re trading a known commodity to introduce significant risk, and a possible / likely downgrade. And possibly a shorter term one of those replacements are older.
Plus....and admittedly this is pure speculation....maybe JimmyG gives them a hometown discount? Often backups on really really good teams do that. Maybe not considering what others would be offering, but it’s possible. Certainly not a primary point, but just occurred to me.
I try to look at this from a positive spin from the Pats standpoint and while I agree arguments can be made, I’m hardly convinced this deal was good for the Pats. I guess it depends on what they get for that 2.0x?
jeaton6
Footballguy
It’s basically a sample size of 6 starts over 4 years. Stats look goos 68%, 10/3 (4/3 in his 4 starts with SF this year) but I’d need more data before crowning him the future . Will they make him their franchise QB, most likely yes, does that mean he actually should be one based on what we’ve seen so far?
They lost 5 games in a row by 3 points or less against playoff teams (last year/this year) with Hoyer before going to Beathard so I don’t think it’s fair to say they were awful (certainly not til they chose to go to Beathard at least) they weren’t good and clearly couldn’t close those games.
In general I agree the draft capital given up is small if they now have their QB of the future. I just think some of you should be pumping the brakes here because the sample size is too small to crown him.
Anarchy99
Footballguy
For those that are saying the trade wasn’t good for NE, what other option did they have other than trade JG?
Tagging him wasn’t a legit option. It would have tied up too much cap money. Remember, they would have had to allocate the cap dollars to tag him when they actually applied the tag. So they would have had to have $25 million in cap space available.
Tagging him wasn’t a legit option. It would have tied up too much cap money. Remember, they would have had to allocate the cap dollars to tag him when they actually applied the tag. So they would have had to have $25 million in cap space available.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
I suppose you could argue that they should have traded him for 1.12+ during the draft; but outside of that, I agree.
Your cap space point was never lost on me. I guess I could've explained it better, though. They're a rebuilding team so this coming year's cap may not be a critical issue but they very well may need that cap space in a couple years if things go well and they're competing for a championship.
I think it was one of my first posts in this thread where I said this exact scenario could play out and I saw it as too high a price to pay for peace of mind. It's not like I'm moving the goal posts or shifting my stance. I always thought this was a possible outcome and I always thought it was poor strategically. There is no new information pulling me one way that I need to dig in my heels. I'm merely stating that I thought losing draft order, losing an early second, and paying out the nose for JG was a bad long term plan by inexperienced management. Waiting a few months to enter into bidding for an unknown commodity was always the way to go, IMO. If anything, his early success proves my point that he didn't need the "invaluable" extra few months of experience with the playbook. If they followed my plan - and I have as much NFL front office experience as John Lynch, I believe - they'd have landed the same player at a lesser contract with more draft capital.
This is not directed at you, but I find it funny how people are insisting the Pats could have franchised him and traded him "just like Cassel." Cassel had played 15.5 games in a season and gone 11-5 in the NFL. He had trade value. Nobody wants to sign a total unknown QB for a 1-year $23.5M salary, much less trade for the right to do so. Granted the Chiefs decided to ink him to a huge (at the time) 6-year contract, but without any game experience there's no way someone was trading to give JG a comparable 6-year deal. JG and Cassel are apples and oranges.
Was that actually on the table or just a rumor?
I think this was unequivocally a great trade for NE and wouldn't be surprised if it was the best offer they actually received all year.
Deamon
Footballguy
A "Franchise QB" is often a pretty subjective term. Could the 32nd best qb in the league be a franchise qb? Does he have to be top 5? Personally I call a franchise QB one that you can build a team around, has enough talent and youth and leadership to be your long term starter, string together multiple winning seasons, etc. I really think the odds are heavily in favour that JG can and will hit all those points. The odds of him hitting those points over the 3rd best QB in the draft or the FA's that are out there this year (Cousins is the only one that could be debatable here), are very high. You pretty much have Jimmy and Kirk in a class of their own, then a bunch of players who have shown they can't be Franchise QBs. To get one of those two in a year that 10 teams will be on the hunt looking for one, is a huge score for SF.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
He started two games with the Pats and played in some preseason games and has always looked good so it’s more than just that. Like I said these 4-7 games doesn’t guarantee that his success continues but it helps in the evaluation process.
Dr. Octopus
Footballguy
There’s also the fact that Cassell was a 7th round pick that didn’t even start for his college team while Garroplo was a fairly highly rated prospect who many pundits had a late first round grade on and now had some NFL tape in preseason and regular season where he looked that part. It wasn’t a ridiculous proposition at all. In fact SF may very well have traded for him if he was Franchise Tagged by the Pats since in essence they did take a similar route anyway by trading for him with the plan to franchise tag him if they weren’t convinced to sign him long term.
Concept Coop
Footballguy
Time will certainly tell. I thought it was a bad trade at the time, but think it looks great today. It's early and 4 games isn't a big sample size - I'll certainly grant you that. It should be fun to watch it play out.
Sure, Cassel's 7th round draft pedigree probably dinged him before he played 15.5 games while going 11-5, but GMs were falling over themselves for him after that trial season. Nobody was going to pay a total unknown $23.5M to play one season and then become a FA, even if he was a 2nd rounder. NFL experience > draft pedigree. Then again, I shouldn't say "nobody" because there are some dumb GMs out there as well as some inexperienced GMs. Plus, BB would've liked to have kept JG as a backup for this season. If he thought he could franchise and trade him, he would have gone that route.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
This is the reality. It is too early to tell if this is a great trade in the long term but it sure looks great for the 9ers right now. And, the Patriots made the right move too. They got what they could. Tom isn't going anywhere for at least one more year and probably two.
The NFL is so much more enjoyable to watch when good QBs are playing. We should be thankful that JG is off the bench and on the field.
johnadams
Footballguy
NE would absolutely have tagged and traded JG. The two teams with the most cap space (over $110million) in 2018 also were two of the neediest in terms of QB, CLE and SF. Both could easily absorb a big cap hit from the franchise tag and still have miles to go to get to the cap floor. In fact, it still makes financial sense for SF to tag him and just eat the contract due to the cap floor penalties. Even if the market dried up and they only got a fourth rounder for JG, it would have been better than getting nothing. And SF and/or CLE could afford it. With other entrants like ARI (could clear $14mil in cap space by dumping Palmer) and JAX ($19mil for Bortles), NE would have enough suitors to get a deal done. The comparison isn't Cassell to JG. The comparison is that NE is willing to take the risk. .
Have you seen the market for unknown FA QBs? $23.5M for one year wasn't going to happen. That would be a huge gap up. Cleveland could work a deal with Cincy/McCarron for way less than that.
johnadams
Footballguy
CLE and SF both need to spend their cap money. You're looking at this as a QB market issue when the real issue for both orgs is to avoid the cap floor. This is the kind of thing that happens when you have market manipulation like cap floors. Some entities will be overpaid and often wildly so just to make the floor. The problem with the floor is that the franchise money is actually a bonus is some ways rather than a detriment. I don't think this is plan A (which would be to sign him to a deal rather than let the franchise tag remain) by any stretch but is a workable plan B for franchises in their state. In a true free market, I agree, but this isn't a true free market.
DropKick
Footballguy
"All that draft capital"?. They gave up a second round pick for what could be a franchise QB. That's it...
They won a few games and may now pick 9th instead of 3rd... OK, happens all the time in the NFL. Thank God teams aren't tanking across the league NBA style.
You are right about one thing - spending money on a QB is NOT the way to succeed in the NFL.
A much better approach is to spend $18 million on the "next Brock" and invest the 2.02 in a backup that might net you a trade someday. 
shadrap
Footballguy
JG appears to be accurate with his passes. In the NFL a pass 12 inches off the mark is not good. From what I've seen this dude is flat out a really solid QB.
Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
Good trade for the 49ers. You really don't know what you have until they start playing for you. He could have been another Matt Cassell. But looks like he turned out (so far) to be what they needed.
Good for the Patriots, too. But what if the Packers had traded Rodgers because Favre wasn't ready to call it quits yet? Was this the kind of trade that really costs New England in two years?
They have a stellar front office, so I'm confident they went over every scenario front to back. I think this was the rare win/win for both teams.
Good for the Patriots, too. But what if the Packers had traded Rodgers because Favre wasn't ready to call it quits yet? Was this the kind of trade that really costs New England in two years?
They have a stellar front office, so I'm confident they went over every scenario front to back. I think this was the rare win/win for both teams.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
To me it’s that combined with the poise in the pocket.
Dude makes his reads, checks down his progressions, stays cool in the pocket & has a good mental clock + a title of that Brady-seque 6th sense for where the pressure is coming from & how much time he’s got.
Those are all the signs I look for when I’m evaluating a QB.
Then that he’s also very accurate & can “make all the throws” as they say, and with touch when needed - that’s one hell of a complete looking QB.
Maybe some warts will emerge in a full season. For now I’m not seeing any shame in his game. Looks rock solid.
DropKick
Footballguy
Finding a franchise QB is difficult. The Packers have effectively had two starting QBs for more than a quarter century. That's crazy when you look at how teams struggle at the position.
I get the impression NE got less than they wanted but as much as they could for JG. Or, in other words, they were stuck with 2 QBs ready and willing to play and were forced to part ways with the younger play because Brady is the face of the franchise. Will New England be searching for a QB in two years? Maybe.
It will be interesting to see how they address the position in the upcoming draft.
jeaton6
Footballguy
No he doesnt have to be near top 5. I don’t think we know nearly enough at this point to know a team can be built around him. There are too many examples of people looking like franchise players (RBs that show vision, explosion etc, QBs that have shown ability to be huge game changers, running, accuracy, arm strength, etc) only to #### the bed after a year or two. Those are on full year or two samples not a half a year. The jury is still out and just because he’s top 2 in a FA QB class doesn’t make him franchise worthy.
jeaton6
Footballguy
I agree he has seen preseason time and time in 20+ regular season games in his career but has thrown less than 300 passes in a 4 year regular season career. These games help us better understand his game but certainly seems like jumping the gun annointing him a guy that’s locked in as worthy franchise QB at this point. I’d certainly want to see more before paying this guy money even at the Tyrod level.
Deamon
Footballguy
Look, obviously no one knows if ANYONE is franchise worthy or not. We all thought Goff wouldn't be after year 1. We've thought RG3 would be after a year. It's easy to just say 'we don't know". However, his sample size still makes him more likely franchise worthy than Baker Mayfield.
I don't think there's anyone out there that doesn't take JG+pick 10 over Mayfield + pick 35.
Deamon
Footballguy
He was going to get more than Tyrod money this offseason even if he didn't sniff the field, so wouldn't making this trade be the only way for them to see more of him before paying him like you suggest is needed?
Yep. Really the only thing that has changed since the trade happened is that he has played well for 4 games, so IMO it's an overreaction to change opinions drastically or think this is "the trade of the decade" based on that (I know you didn't call it that). We still don't know if he's going to be their QB long term, how much they are going to pay him to be their QB long term, or how he's going to perform (again, long term).
I’m in the same boat as Coop, but there’s merit to this. Kaep looked like the next awesome Niners QB through a bigger sample size than Jimmy has put out there. I think Jimmy’s success is more sustainable, but we’ll see.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
People saying we havent seen enough are a bit silly. He just played well with two different teams, one of which he has been with a couple months with terrible weapons. For realz people. He is obviously a good QB.
I would rather pay him huge money over most of the "proven" guys. Pretty sure the 49ers feel the same way. Also, having the franchise tag option is a nice tool for their negotiations. I dont think JG will want to play on the tag and will sign a deal less than if he were to hit the open market. Either way, he isnt hitting the open market and he knows it.
I would rather pay him huge money over most of the "proven" guys. Pretty sure the 49ers feel the same way. Also, having the franchise tag option is a nice tool for their negotiations. I dont think JG will want to play on the tag and will sign a deal less than if he were to hit the open market. Either way, he isnt hitting the open market and he knows it.
fightingillini
Footballguy
Agree. Now SF can address other needs at the draft. They spent a 2.02 pick and moved down 5-7 spots in the 1st round to secure their starting QB for the next few years, maybe longer. That's a clear win for SF, no matter how FF Ninja tries to argue otherwise. Sure they are going to have to pay him starting QB market rate, but they were going to do that anyway if they were in the FA market for say Kirk Cousins. It also will be easier to attract a key free agent to SF.....now they see the team is moving in a positive direction.
Of course we don't know yet if JG an elite QB. But you don't necessarily need a Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers (of course it's nice to have!) for your franchise to win a lot of games and even go to the Super Bowl. Eli Manning won 2 Super Bowls and he's a pretty mediocre NFL QB. Alex Smith has won a lot of games for KC....and he's a mediocre NFL QB.
What matters is....Garapollo became the starting QB......San Fran started winning games. And not just against crap opponents.....they just beat Jacksonville, an AFC playoff team. That matters. A lot.
From what I seen so far, Garapollo should be an above average NFL QB.
chinawildman
Footballguy
The whole argument of "they coulda signed him as an UFA in the offseason for a lot cheaper" is drenched in armchair GM fantasy-talk...
Even assuming that the 49ers were "guaranteed" to get JG in the offseason as a UFA, it's absurd to expect Lynch and Shanahan to bet their entire 49er tenures on a guy who had 3 starts his entire career.
Imagine if your career at your place of work was tied to ONE hiring decision... How much due diligence would you do? How much upfront would you be willing to pay to give it a trial run before you stake your reputation and hitch your career to the guy? The 2nd rounder was price paid for risk mitigation and control of JG's rights, which at this point seems absurdly cheap.
Even assuming that the 49ers were "guaranteed" to get JG in the offseason as a UFA, it's absurd to expect Lynch and Shanahan to bet their entire 49er tenures on a guy who had 3 starts his entire career.
Imagine if your career at your place of work was tied to ONE hiring decision... How much due diligence would you do? How much upfront would you be willing to pay to give it a trial run before you stake your reputation and hitch your career to the guy? The 2nd rounder was price paid for risk mitigation and control of JG's rights, which at this point seems absurdly cheap.
bigupsetter
Footballguy
Matt Ryan said it took him 2 years to fully run this offense. There is cause for optimism with Jimmy, and it looks good now. However, sam Bradford was #1 pick in draft and oofensive rookie of the year. Many voices thought Gurley was a bust coming this year. Many people thought Winston, Mariotta and Carr were going to have great years.Concept Coop said:
So I agree- time will tell. From SF perspective they didn't waste top 10 pick on the position, have plenty of cash to spend. I remember there were some who thought Ryan Leaf was better than Peyton Manning at the time.
msudaisy26
Footballguy
I agree that it looks good now and time will tell, but your examples are really bad.
Bradford's career has been derailed by injuries. We have no idea if he would have been good or bad.
Very few people thought Gurley was a bust. His rookie year was unbelievable and you are comparing a qb to rb.
Winston, Carr and Mariota were all known qbs with large sample sizes. All of them have had some injuries this year with Winston and Carr having serious injuries.
I think guys like Matt Schuab, Farve, Scott Mitchell, Matt Cassell are better comparisons and there are mixed results.
Gatorman
Supreme Elite Maximum Tier
I'd call this a great trade in a lot of ways for both teams, and likely a lesson to all those front offices out there on how to do business.
1) On the New England side: BB did a good job in having the Heir apparent on his roster on a team that is so QB driven that all of the other BB legend gets lost on this. However, BB could not foresee that his QB (Brady) would still be playing at a high level at his age, and trading away JG and getting a second round pick and Hoyer (essentially as he was cut from SF after the deal) as Brady's backup for 2 years (and likely drafting another QB this draft) sets them up in a kick the can down the road scenario.
2) SF: They got a guy who has had NFL level coaching with not too much wear and tear and without having to go into a bidding war. They gave up a second rounder and now hold a pretty good first round pick to do with what they want.
Win win on both sides, and yes, if BB thinks that brady is going to play 3 more seasons a year or 2 ago maybe he locks up JG longer term, but how can anyone be that sure of the future?
1) On the New England side: BB did a good job in having the Heir apparent on his roster on a team that is so QB driven that all of the other BB legend gets lost on this. However, BB could not foresee that his QB (Brady) would still be playing at a high level at his age, and trading away JG and getting a second round pick and Hoyer (essentially as he was cut from SF after the deal) as Brady's backup for 2 years (and likely drafting another QB this draft) sets them up in a kick the can down the road scenario.
2) SF: They got a guy who has had NFL level coaching with not too much wear and tear and without having to go into a bidding war. They gave up a second rounder and now hold a pretty good first round pick to do with what they want.
Win win on both sides, and yes, if BB thinks that brady is going to play 3 more seasons a year or 2 ago maybe he locks up JG longer term, but how can anyone be that sure of the future?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
If the Browns offered the 49ers the #1 pick for JG right now, would they take it?
I say no.
I say no.
bigupsetter
Footballguy
Just saying hindsight is a great thing, he can be judged really when his time in SF is over. TRade looks good now, but it can change in heartbeat. Not comparing other postions, just saying with hindsight a view can change. Looking forward you can have a certain view, looking back you can have a certain view.
If next year Jimmy, Kamara, Gurley has a bad year the current view will change on them. If Amari Cooper has a good year one thing will be said of 2017, if he has another year like 2017 another view will be taken.
Personally, I like Jimmy G trade so far.
DocHolliday
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Deamon
Footballguy
-OZ-
Footballguy
I voted good trade but really wasn't sure.
Agreed. Lynch might just have a clue. Shanny does too.
-OZ-
Footballguy
bigupsetter
Footballguy
Bradford has not performed like #1 draft pick, reason is why is regardless
Many people were saying his rookie year might be a fluke, perhaps bust was my term
Aside from Carr last year, the 3 of them have no great years, You didnt even say Mariotta is playing for a TE loving, WR killingcoach who should have been fired when the words 'exotic smashmouth' crossed his lips.
and no those guys Cassell, Schaub Mitchell aren't my comparisons as I wasn't comparing them. I was saying views change year by year. The guys who won this year with Gurley are singing different tune now. With Mariotta, Winston, Carr more was expected this year, but next year if any of them throw 32TD+ and 8 INT, its gonna be a different tune next year.
Deamon
Footballguy
msudaisy26
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
So if he 49ers would not trade JG for pick #1, ipso facto, doesnt that pretty much prove it was a hell of a trade?
msudaisy26
Footballguy
Nope, because they could have had him for free instead of giving up a draft pick, and signed him for 5 million a year less so 3 years from now they could use that extra cap space to continue their dynasty and everyone in the league already pinkie swore that they wouldn't try to sign JG.
Scooby1974
Footballguy
Thunderlips
Footballguy
Yeah.fightingillini said:
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