What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

How bad will Hopkins be under Savage? (1 Viewer)

ponchsox

ponchsox

Footballguy
Are we talking Jordy Nelson effect where he’s barely startable or can he still be a solid WR2?

 
Last edited by a moderator:
In my PPR league he went for 18 & 14 in first 2 games so there is hope - unlike Jordy (who I also own :rant: ).  Luckily they face Indy D this week.

 
travdogg said:
2016 all over again. Maybe worse, Savage is likely worse than Osweiler.
Click to expand...
I think Savage is better than Osweiler. Savage was given 1/2 of a game before he was pulled against Jacksonville. At the time, no one knew what Jacksonville was, since that time the Jags have made many QBs look bad.

I don't expect Hopkins to remain a top 3 WR, but a mid/low range WR 2 seems possible. I do expect for Fullers TD production to stop.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Savage has a 6.19 per pass career average.

In 2017...

that is good enough for 40th among QBs. i.e. among the absolute worst of any starter.

Watson was at 8.3, 2nd among starting QBs. And was just about to eclipse Smith as the best.

:tfp:

 
Last edited by a moderator:
BigSteelThrill said:
Savage has a 6.19 per pass career average.

In 2017...

that is good enough for 40th among QBs. i.e. among the absolute worst of any starter.

Watson was at 8.3, 2nd among starting QBs. And was just about to eclipse Smith as the best.

:tfp:
Click to expand...
Yeah but Savage has 0 career TD passes, regression is on his side where Watson had regression against him. 

 
mcd said:
I think Savage is better than Osweiler. Savage was given 1/2 of a game before he was pulled against Jacksonville. At the time, no one knew what Jacksonville was, since that time the Jags have made many QBs look bad.

I don't expect Hopkins to remain a top 3 WR, but a mid/low range WR 2 seems possible. I do expect for Fullers TD production to stop.
Click to expand...
Savage has shown zero reason to think he's better than Osweiler. He's thrown zero TD's in 3 starts, has sub o-lineman mobility, and has Hideo Nomo's release time. He's instantly the worst starting QB in the NFL in my opinion, and if the Texans hadn't hung onto him, he'd be out of the league. He does absolutely nothing well. He's basically discount Ryan Mallet.

This is a far bigger dropoff than Luck to Brissett or Rodgers to Hundley are. This is MVP candidate to practice squad level player.  Shame Hoyer didn't wait another day to sign with the Patriots, though maybe there is some bad blood there.

The original post asked if Hopkins would be in Jordy Nelson territory, and I think that is a fair comparison. Maybe he'll squeeze out some good games, but every week you are going to look for reasons to bench him. I might prefer Nelson actually. As for Fuller, he's basically waiver fodder now in my eyes. He's Tyler Lockett now, maybe he'll have a big play TD, or maybe he'll have 2 catches for 20 yards.

Good chance the Texans finish last in the AFC South now. Great news for Cleveland I guess, they might have 4 of the top 35 picks, and 2 in the top-5.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
travdogg said:
Savage has shown zero reason to think he's better than Osweiler. He's thrown zero TD's in 3 starts, has sub o-lineman mobility, and has Hideo Nomo's release time. He's instantly the worst starting QB in the NFL in my opinion, and if the Texans hadn't hung onto him, he'd be out of the league. He does absolutely nothing well. He's basically discount Ryan Mallet.

This is a far bigger dropoff than Luck to Brissett or Rodgers to Hundley are. This is MVP candidate to practice squad level player.  Shame Hoyer didn't wait another day to sign with the Patriots, though maybe there is some bad blood there.

The original post asked if Hopkins would be in Jordy Nelson territory, and I think that is a fair comparison. Maybe he'll squeeze out some good games, but every week you are going to look for reasons to bench him. I might prefer Nelson actually. As for Fuller, he's basically waiver fodder now in my eyes. He's Tyler Lockett now, maybe he'll have a big play TD, or maybe he'll have 2 catches for 20 yards.

Good chance the Texans finish last in the AFC South now. Great news for Cleveland I guess, they might have 4 of the top 35 picks, and 2 in the top-5.
Click to expand...
I think you are a little over the top here. First have you seen a Dolphin play qb this year? They are worst. I also don't believe their is a good chance they finish last, that is still the Colts honor to lose. Third Hopkins is no longer an auto start, but probably a mid wr2. He had some decent games last year with Savage starting. Lastly, he wouldn't be out of the league if the Texans cut him this year, he wouldn't be a starter either. He would be a back up maybe on a practice squad. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Magic_Man said:
This hurts Miller
Click to expand...
It hurts everyone.

The offense will be incredibly inefficient. Not be able to sustain drives. Worse, the offense can't "hide" what is a not so great defense. Time of possession flip coming.

May hurt L. Miller the most though. D's don't have to worry about any read option any longer. They can stack the box and force Savage to throw long...something he doesn't do well per his YPA stats.

Grim.

 
For those of us who only had Watson and no else, would the smart move and I say that loosely be to drop Watson and pick up Hundley? He's all that's out there in my league or are we giving Savage a full game to see if he's got any game.

 
Really hurts Fuller, as they won't have Watson extending plays while his downfield routes develope. Hopkins obviously takes a huge hit as well. He'll still produce enough to be a fantasy starter, but I wouldn't count on him being top 10.

 
Hopkins made some huge plays off of short routes let’s pray that this guy can throw the damn ball 10-15 yards with some zip and accuracy. If he can do that with some consistency we’ll be fine.

With the lost of OBJ this stings even more! Fingers crossed!

Tex

 
Fullur becomes a boom/bust WR4. Hopkins a low-end WR1 (and possibly a WR2!). 

TEs get a bump. Miller becomes Super Theo Riddick if he can get more dumpoffs.

Savage cannot process as quick as Watson, he will eat tons more sacks and throw it away more because he cannot create/keep plays alive. He is a glacier in mind, body and soul.

 
I feel like a ton of misinformation and stats have been thrown around in this thread. Everyone saying Savage is a terrible QB hasn't really seen him play

In 2016 week 15, Savage came in for Brock in the 1st quarter against the Jags. He proceeded to go 23 for 36 for 260 yards, 0 INTs. Hopkins did 8 for 87 on 12 targets, and 3 end zone targets (fingertips away from a TD). In my opinion, he looked WAY better than Brock, and for fantasy purposes, he was more than competent for his receivers. See for yourself: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nrPL1Skq1d0

Week 16 was his FIRST career start, and only career full game. He managed the game in a win over the Bengals, completing 18 for 29, 0 INTs in a close win. Not many big throws were needed in that game, but he didn't turn the ball over and won 12 - 10. Miller didn't play in this game, and Hopkins did 3 for 43 on 6 targets.

Week 17, he only completed 5 passes (8 att) before leaving with a concussion. Hopkins did 7 for 123 in this game, and Miller was out.

This season Week 1, you all saw him before being pulled against the Jags (who have been an elite defense)

So everyone saying he's terrible and had awful stats, no touchdowns, etc... he has played ONE FULL GAME in his career. Not to mention that Hopkins put in a lot of time in preseason gaining chemistry with him, while endorsing him: http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/20248391/deandre-hopkins-endorses-tom-savage-houston-texans-qb

 
Last edited by a moderator:
What I posted about Savage is scouting report info purely, I'm not taking into account that game. These are known weaknesses by that can be exploited. Can he overcome them? Sure with alot of hard work and time in practice. But the question was "How Bad will he be?" probably should go "How bad COULD he be?". If he hasn't changed much in the last 2 months... yeah.

 
The Frankman said:
What I posted about Savage is scouting report info purely, I'm not taking into account that game. These are known weaknesses by that can be exploited. Can he overcome them? Sure with alot of hard work and time in practice. But the question was "How Bad will he be?" probably should go "How bad COULD he be?". If he hasn't changed much in the last 2 months... yeah.
Click to expand...
It was more of a response to Travdogg

 
Hopkins will have a drop off. Fuller will be useless. Lamar Miller will continue his excellence at falling down at first sign of contact.

 
I love how everyone is an expert all of a sudden. Savage > Osweiler, that's all I know. 

 
conlilnew said:
For those of us who only had Watson and no else, would the smart move and I say that loosely be to drop Watson and pick up Hundley? He's all that's out there in my league or are we giving Savage a full game to see if he's got any game.
Click to expand...
That's what I did even before the injury. Picked up Hundley to backup Watson. My QBs this year were Luck, Bradford, Watson. I'm down to Hundley and Garoppolo now. 

I think the upside for Savage is Chad Henne. The downside is Ryan Lindley. We just don't know yet. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Fuller was saving my season with the Rodgers injury making Jordy (our first round pick) useless. I'm expecting fuller to be mostly useless down the stretch now as well. Damn shame.

 
I feel strange being in the position of defending Osweiler, but he's better at everything than Savage. It boggles my mind that people are so quick to just assume Savage won't be as bad as Osweiler was, his floor is significantly lower. Savage is slow. Not just in mobility, but his throwing motion and his information processing. He's a sitting duck.

I'm surprised more people don't see this as catastrophic. I fully expect Indy to go into Houston and beat the Texans. The Texans were a mediocre team with Watson on fire. They have no defense, and a mediocre at best o-line, now with a cement footed QB. I'd be shocked if Houston won 3 games the rest of the year, and believe they will struggle to top 20 points in every game they have left, even with a easy schedule. The Texans are a target for defense streamers, even Indy is in play this week.

If I could get WR2 prices for Hopkins, I wouldn't hesitate. I'd happily deal him for guys like Hill, Cooks, Baldwin, Crabtree, or Allen. 

 
Tom Savage is an absolute bum, and will suck every ounce of fantasy value from the lifeless carcass that DeAndre Hopkins, through no fault of his own, has become.

 
travdogg said:
I feel strange being in the position of defending Osweiler, but he's better at everything than Savage. It boggles my mind that people are so quick to just assume Savage won't be as bad as Osweiler was, his floor is significantly lower. Savage is slow. Not just in mobility, but his throwing motion and his information processing. He's a sitting duck.

I'm surprised more people don't see this as catastrophic. I fully expect Indy to go into Houston and beat the Texans. The Texans were a mediocre team with Watson on fire. They have no defense, and a mediocre at best o-line, now with a cement footed QB. I'd be shocked if Houston won 3 games the rest of the year, and believe they will struggle to top 20 points in every game they have left, even with a easy schedule. The Texans are a target for defense streamers, even Indy is in play this week.

If I could get WR2 prices for Hopkins, I wouldn't hesitate. I'd happily deal him for guys like Hill, Cooks, Baldwin, Crabtree, or Allen. 
Click to expand...
We have a ton of data supporting how awful Osweiler is. What are you basing Savage being terrible on? Half of a game against the best defense in the NFL? Or the games where Savage outplayed Osweiler last season? Or is this a product of groupthink? 

I'm genuinely curious where people are getting this information from. 

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Squintz82 said:
We have a ton of data supporting how awful Osweiler is. What are you basing Savage being terrible on? Half of a game against the best defense in the NFL? Or the games where Savage outplayed Osweiler last season? Or is this a product of groupthink? 

I'm genuinely curious where people are getting this information from. 
Click to expand...
We don't really know yet. But Savage couldn't even hold onto the starting job at Rutgers and transferred to Arizona, then Pitt. He blames it on injury but the truth is that he lost his Rutgers starting job to a guy that is currently playing in the Italian Football League which I didn't even know existed until just now. 

 
Hopkins will be just fine. He has played with 11 different Qb's, wanted Savage to begin with, and was targeted by him 60% of the time. Houston will be playing from behind constantly. Sheer volume alone makes Hopkins playable. You should be able to get him cheap too.

 
TwinTurbo said:
We don't really know yet. But Savage couldn't even hold onto the starting job at Rutgers and transferred to Arizona, then Pitt. He blames it on injury but the truth is that he lost his Rutgers starting job to a guy that is currently playing in the Italian Football League which I didn't even know existed until just now. 
Click to expand...
This is better info than people repeating the  dramatic narrative that everyone is doomed. Truth is, we don't know much other than the limited playing time he's had so far. He hasn't been as bad as Brock (yet) from what I've seen. 

 
seahawk 17 said:
Sheer volume alone makes Hopkins playable. You should be able to get him cheap too.
Click to expand...
If the QB play is bad enough, sheer volume doesn't matter.

Anyone else remember Larry Fitzgerald's 2012? When Kevin Kolb went down mid-season, he spent the rest of the year as a bit player in the live-action improv comedy that was the Skelton & Lindley Show. Here was a first-ballot HOFer in the prime of his career, and yet these were his stat lines from Weeks 7-13:

  • 7 targets, 4 catches, 29 yards
  • 11 targets, 5 catches, 52 yards
  • 12 targets, 6 catches, 74 yards, 1 TD
  • 7 targets, 1 catch (!), 11 yards
  • 12 targets, 3 catches (!!), 31 yards
  • 7 targets, 1 catch (again!), 23 yards
  • 11 targets, 1 catch, 2 yards (oh my God I can't even)
Is Savage going to be as bad as John Skelton and Ryan Lindley? I mean, God, I hope not. Nobody deserves that fate. But the point is, if he's even half that bad, you're screwed. You won't be able to start Nuk, you won't be able to trade him, and you won't be able to bring yourself to cut him.

I'd rather sell now for 50 cents on the dollar then risk not being able to sell at all after a game or two.

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Joe Bryant
How Can The Forum Be Better? Your Thoughts?
Replies
35
Views
721
Joe Bryant
Joe Bryant
Ministry of Pain
Atlanta Falcons Offense '24- WR/RB/TE/QB and the OL
Replies
3
Views
180
zamboni
zamboni
Ministry of Pain
RB/WR to Exploit/Avoid Week 1
2
Replies
65
Views
4K
3nOut
3nOut

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 2 (members: 0, guests: 2)
Top