KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Let's start it up!
Who's playing the Cleveland D for only 3.5K??
Who's playing the Cleveland D for only 3.5K??
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FanDuel Week 10 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter KarmaPolice
- Start date
Ever Present Lurker
Footballguy
How about Garrett Celek for some TE relief this week? SF vs NYG, Giants have allowed a TE TD to *EVERY* team they faced this year, most recently: Tyler Higbee. With George Kittle injured, Celek is next in line.
Speaking of Higbee, I like the Rams to stay hot this week... perhaps not the entire friggin team again this week, but Gurley (duh), Goff and one of the WRs ought to do well. Which WR, though? I like Robert Woods, Sammy isn't seeing the targets and won't get THAT open every week. Cooper Kupp is an option as well, but Woods gets my money.
Pittsburgh has a nice matchup on the turf in Indy, but you'll pay out those nose for Leveon or Antonio. Will Juju still be the #2 after the bye, or did the Steelers use that time to kumbaya with Bryant?
The Jets have a good matchup against a Tampa team that looks to be folding up the tent already. I'm looking for Sefarian-Jenkins to have revenge on his mind and wouldn't be shocked to see both Forte and Powell do well.
Early thoughts... I'll get more specific later.
Speaking of Higbee, I like the Rams to stay hot this week... perhaps not the entire friggin team again this week, but Gurley (duh), Goff and one of the WRs ought to do well. Which WR, though? I like Robert Woods, Sammy isn't seeing the targets and won't get THAT open every week. Cooper Kupp is an option as well, but Woods gets my money.
Pittsburgh has a nice matchup on the turf in Indy, but you'll pay out those nose for Leveon or Antonio. Will Juju still be the #2 after the bye, or did the Steelers use that time to kumbaya with Bryant?
The Jets have a good matchup against a Tampa team that looks to be folding up the tent already. I'm looking for Sefarian-Jenkins to have revenge on his mind and wouldn't be shocked to see both Forte and Powell do well.
Early thoughts... I'll get more specific later.
Galileo
Footballguy
lol...I never even scrolled that far down. What a bargain!
My placeholder line up...
McCown - Bell/McKinnon - Tate/Theilin/D. Thomas - ASJ - Succop - Pit
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I am going to continue the gpp discussion here. GB @jdoggydogg was asking for tips and I thought we could bounce ideas around. I have been trying to read and listen to as much stuff for ideas and have notes written down. Some is what we have been talking about anyway, some I actually found interesting and surprising.
I think the basic assumptions that I kept seeing over and over is:
Ideas I had written for each postion:
Qb - average salary <8K on big winners, about 5/wk hit 3.5x, and we need about 320 yds and 3-4 TDs. Home dogs perform better than expected on average.
RB - average salary 7.4K for RB1, 6.3 for RB2. more than 80% of the 25pts games are from guys that got 20+touches and 2TDs. probably the position to go chalk more than the others, and 2/3 of huge games come from RBs vs. Ds that give up a lot of FF points.
WR - Average salaries are 9K, 7.7K, 6.3K for the 3 spots. 90% of WRs that hit 3x come from guys that have 5+catches and 1 TD. Road underdogs see a bump in production on average.
TE - ave salary <6K. guys with big games (around 20pts) average 7recs and about 60% were vs. worst 10 Ds as far as FFpts/g allowed by D. Bump for home faves.
K - Faves got production bump, consider higher salary guys for a leverage/contrarian play.
Def - Highest correlation for big point games are TDs, sacks, ints. Less focus on the pts allowed bonus. Production bump for home faves.
An interesting article I read on stacking and correlations had some very interesting info:
I think the basic assumptions that I kept seeing over and over is:
- we are looking to be at the top for every gpp, so boom/bust
- we need 180pts minimum to take down big bucks, 200 more likely.
- expect more from your Qb (3.5x) and less from your D and K. I saw one place say to aim for about 170 from your skill positions, and then 20-30 from your K/Def
- most of the big winners need a couple low % guys (3 at the most), but you still need some good/chalk plays to bring your base points up.
- look at games that are not the top couple o/u games for the week and take a stand on one or two that you think will go over - that's a good way to find the lower % guys.
- because of the .5ppr on FD and no bonuses, TDs, Red Zone opps are key.
Ideas I had written for each postion:
Qb - average salary <8K on big winners, about 5/wk hit 3.5x, and we need about 320 yds and 3-4 TDs. Home dogs perform better than expected on average.
RB - average salary 7.4K for RB1, 6.3 for RB2. more than 80% of the 25pts games are from guys that got 20+touches and 2TDs. probably the position to go chalk more than the others, and 2/3 of huge games come from RBs vs. Ds that give up a lot of FF points.
WR - Average salaries are 9K, 7.7K, 6.3K for the 3 spots. 90% of WRs that hit 3x come from guys that have 5+catches and 1 TD. Road underdogs see a bump in production on average.
TE - ave salary <6K. guys with big games (around 20pts) average 7recs and about 60% were vs. worst 10 Ds as far as FFpts/g allowed by D. Bump for home faves.
K - Faves got production bump, consider higher salary guys for a leverage/contrarian play.
Def - Highest correlation for big point games are TDs, sacks, ints. Less focus on the pts allowed bonus. Production bump for home faves.
An interesting article I read on stacking and correlations had some very interesting info:
- as expected, the highest correlations in positions was Qb-Wr1. Then Qb-Te, Q-WR2, QWr3. The surprising nuggets were that...
- RB-DT was only slightly correlated and the main ones above had about 4x more correlated than that combo. PK-Def was nearly as correlated as Q-WR2 and Q-WR3 and something that people might not think about putting together.
- That said, the highest odds for hitting 50pts was the QB-WR1 combo followed by the QB-RB combo, then the QB and TE/WR2. There was a decent gap between the first two and the other two. QB-RB is a combo that people might not use on FD, but in theory it gets you access to all the team's TDs on the week.
- IF a QB gets 25+ points on the week, the highest odds for a player in the game to also hit 25pts are (in order): his WR1, the opposing QB, opposing WR1, opposing RB, his RB, his TE, his WR2. This is the reason that it's suggested to run back your stack with the Opponent WR in the same LU or looking for low % Qbs in games vs. QBs we think will go off on the week. Also, if we think that Ben and Brown will go off this week, Brissett and Brown as a combo is correlated and would probably be a ton lower owned.
- The best 2 man stacks from the same team have about a 8% chance of hitting their 50pts. 3 man stacks only about 2.5% chance of hitting their 75pts, and 4 mans less than 1% chance of hitting their 100pts needed - mostly due to you capping your ceiling by needing all your TDs from one team. I keep hearing to resist the urge to mega stack teams and games, and if you absolutely want to put 4 from a team on FD maybe use the D in there to try to capitalize on the other team needing to throw and make sure that you really like the odds of the team getting 4+ TDs on O. OR if you are doing 3-4 guys, focus on a cheap team - ie Goff/Watkins/Woods this week vs. something like Brady/Gronk/Cooks because again you are really handcuffing your salary and upside at the remaining positions if you are tying up 25K+ for 3 players on one team.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I looked at Ds first and looking at DL vs. OL the ones that stood out right away were Rams (5.4), Pitt (4.6), and Chicago (4.3). Det was 7th worst on the list, so I won't lie that Cleveland at 3.5K crossed my mind for a sec too but I will probably pass.
jerseys finest
Footballguy
Awesome write up karma! That is some really valuable information. Thank you for sharing!
It tells me that at least I am somewhat on the right track ??. Won 60 last week which was nice, added some more back to the bankroll I lost over the previous couple weeks. Haven't gone too deep on research yet, but I'm gonna use that info to try and look at it a little differently and try to win an elusive gpp. Been close before, but only a handful of times.
Thurs-mon placeholder
Manning, Howard, bell, Shepard, AJ green, diggs, engram, cinci kicker, chargers
sunday placeholder
Goff, gurley, Howard, Hopkins, Robby Anderson, woods, Davis, lambo, bears
These are gpp lineups, lots more to take into account of course, but I do love Howard in a plus matchup. He will be in a mix of my gpp/cash lineups. I think that giants/niners game may be one of the less popular games with high shootout potential.
It tells me that at least I am somewhat on the right track ??. Won 60 last week which was nice, added some more back to the bankroll I lost over the previous couple weeks. Haven't gone too deep on research yet, but I'm gonna use that info to try and look at it a little differently and try to win an elusive gpp. Been close before, but only a handful of times.
Thurs-mon placeholder
Manning, Howard, bell, Shepard, AJ green, diggs, engram, cinci kicker, chargers
sunday placeholder
Goff, gurley, Howard, Hopkins, Robby Anderson, woods, Davis, lambo, bears
These are gpp lineups, lots more to take into account of course, but I do love Howard in a plus matchup. He will be in a mix of my gpp/cash lineups. I think that giants/niners game may be one of the less popular games with high shootout potential.
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Howard for sure was somebody that I wrote down too. Just looking at matchups I also had Bell, Fournette, McCoy, Gurley written down and possible gpp additions of the NO backs, Dallas RB, Denver RB, D.Martin, Forte, Atl RB, and Gordon.
The odd game that stood out a bit to me and has some fun narrative was the Jets/Bucs game. McCown has been top 5 in scoring since week 5, the Bucs' pass D stinks and you have ASJ going against his old team and now on the other side we have Ryan Fitz going against an old team. Both teams showed up all over as far as most points allowed to positions - TB for QB, RB, WR, TE and Jets for Qb, WR, TE. With all the injuries and the high total, the Atl/Dallas game could be weird and have a lot of low $ guys to take stabs on if guys like Zeke/Dez/Freeman/Julio aren't able to go this week.
My gpp placeholder for the week was: McCown - Howard/Hyde - AB/Green/R.Anderson - Brate - Gost - Chicago.
I am going to stare at that all week. A core similar to that would allow a rotation of guys near those salaries that you could stack like Staff/Tate, Ben with Brown, Ryan/Sanu or Coleman, Dak/Williams, etc..
jerseys finest
Footballguy
I actually had a NYJ/tb stack as my original placeholder for all the same reasons you listed. Just wish Evans wasn't suspended. Bump to brate and Martin? Martin looked horrible last game though
ill throw some more thoughts I've had up here in a bit. I'm expecting a slow day at work. ??
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Galileo
Footballguy
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
The game definitely takes a hit without Evans and agree about Martin even though I did still write him name down to look into. Not 100% on the game, it's just one that stuck out as far as 2 bad D on the field together.
Hey guys, work finally started to slow down so I'm excited to hopefully start collaborating with you all more. This is awesome that we get to bounce ideas off each other. An initial look at week 10 for me:
-I think Devonta Freeman is in a beautiful spot. Like Cooper two weeks ago, and Hilton last week, his price is so low compared to last 2 years and he is capable of 2/3 touchdown upside. Surely a GPP only play, but I think he's in a really similar spot. Coleman is basically splitting snaps now but I think you would get a starting RB with 25 point upside in the highest total game (50 o/u) of the week at very low ownership.
-Lesean McCoy jumps off the page as being lower priced compared to other top RBs. I'm surprised he's not priced in upper 8,000s. People will be scared off of him because of his 2.5 point (outlier) clunker of a performance, but I like him at home quite a bit.
-Will be interesting to see how the ownership works out for the top tier WRs. Besides Brown at 9300, all are pretty lower-priced compared to past weeks. With Julio questionable, Evans suspended, Dez questionable, and Hopkins having Savage throw to him--you have to assume most of ownership will go to Antonio Brown and AJ Green...right?
-I like what Karmapolice is saying about Atlanta/Dallas game. Highest total game of week by a good 4 or 5 points, everyone will be on it. Do we need to get the low-priced guys right (Beasley, Coleman, T. Williams, Sanu, Gabriel) or do we fade and game stack another game? (much like Rams/Giants last week)
Thanks guys
-I think Devonta Freeman is in a beautiful spot. Like Cooper two weeks ago, and Hilton last week, his price is so low compared to last 2 years and he is capable of 2/3 touchdown upside. Surely a GPP only play, but I think he's in a really similar spot. Coleman is basically splitting snaps now but I think you would get a starting RB with 25 point upside in the highest total game (50 o/u) of the week at very low ownership.
-Lesean McCoy jumps off the page as being lower priced compared to other top RBs. I'm surprised he's not priced in upper 8,000s. People will be scared off of him because of his 2.5 point (outlier) clunker of a performance, but I like him at home quite a bit.
-Will be interesting to see how the ownership works out for the top tier WRs. Besides Brown at 9300, all are pretty lower-priced compared to past weeks. With Julio questionable, Evans suspended, Dez questionable, and Hopkins having Savage throw to him--you have to assume most of ownership will go to Antonio Brown and AJ Green...right?
-I like what Karmapolice is saying about Atlanta/Dallas game. Highest total game of week by a good 4 or 5 points, everyone will be on it. Do we need to get the low-priced guys right (Beasley, Coleman, T. Williams, Sanu, Gabriel) or do we fade and game stack another game? (much like Rams/Giants last week)
Thanks guys
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Just might be. For piece of mind, I probably would want to try to move off one of the stud WRs and get a guy like Bell or even McCoy in the LU instead and maybe somebody with a rushing floor at QB. (you know me and paying up for WRs in cash). I like Howard/AB/Anderson/Chicago/PK as a core for sure.
Ever Present Lurker
Footballguy
The more I kick things around, you can do some fun things with Garrett Celek in the lineup. We've got 1/2 season of evidence that basement for a TE against the Giants is 1 catch/1 TD... I think I'm going to allow myself some decent exposure to the good Mr. Celek.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I love it in gpps too, but he and Julio have been banged up. I think Freeman is struggling with a shoulder or something. I will for sure be keeping an eye on the practice reports there.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Just noticed how cheap S.Shepard is (5.7). That is a great option vs. SF since they only have him and Engram to throw to. Under 7K, my eyes are being drawn to him, Marvin Jones, D.Thomas, JuJu, and R.Anderson so far.
My favorite initial sub 7K Rbs were Freeman, Hyde, Ingram, and Forte.
My favorite initial sub 7K Rbs were Freeman, Hyde, Ingram, and Forte.
Ever Present Lurker
Footballguy
Agreed, adding in Robert Woods to that group in the same price range. I like this bunch more than a lot of the higher priced guys, this week.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
There is lot of value at WR that could give you a different build if you wanted to pay up at TE or have 2 stud RBs too.
Something like Fitzp - Gordon/Hyde - Green/Julio/D.Jax - Gronk - Gost - Chicago is doable too.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I think it's more of a function of Pitts D being decent and Indy being terrible. People probably feel that all Pitts will have to do is run Bell 35 times, and I think the only time that Indy has had decent O games have been vs. really bad Ds like Houst, SF, Tenn. Glancing at stuff it looked like Pitt was top 10 in DVOA to most positions. I could maybe see doing a couple Pitt guys and maybe taking a stab at Hilton again on the fast track, but personally it's not a game that I am looking to do much on the Indy side. I like the under and think 28-14 feels about right to me. Bell with 120 and 2 TDs, and Ben with 230 and a couple Tds maybe?
ETA: I also just glanced at the pace of play on teams, and it looked like Pitts is one of the slower teams in the league too, and Indy looks like they slow down when they are trailing for some reason.
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I just don't see that as the game script here, Pitt wants to play with the lead, I see them taking shots down field early and often and then running Bell but they also struggle a bit against the run so I think Indy will be able to run, especially with Brissett. I see Pitt throwing a lot first half and Indy running a lot first half and then I see these roles reversing second half but to what extent will depend on how close the score is.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
..and these are the perfect games to take stands on for gpps b/c if we see it differently, chances are the rest of the FF community might not know what to do with the Indy side and they will go overlooked. I usually gravitate to weird games with two bad pass Ds going up against each other first like the Jets/TB game and the Giants/SF game. Not saying that I will land on those games in the end, just what I look for first. I just see Pitts being tough vs TEs so that leaves Indy with 1 weapon left to defend, so if they have start to throw I don't see Brissett having a ton of success. I can see a Pitts stack like Ben/Brown/Bell/D, but just personally don't see a game stack.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
Karma, do you have any quick tips for 50/50 contests?
jerseys finest
Footballguy
I'm not karma, but I'll give my thoughts to how I approach cash games. I start with which teams have the most positive game scripts all around in my mind. This week for example, Pitt v Indy, Det v Cle, LAR v HOU are my 3 standout games that should be dominated on one side. This is where I look to get 1-2 RB(depending on cost) 1 QB, 1-2 WR, 1 def.
after that I look for high o/u games to fill in the rest of my positions with high floor players. 15+ touchRB and 7+ target WRs. Kicker I like to pick from these games too and usually go after the team with the worst run game.
I try not to go too heavy with any team or game stacks, if you miss on that game, it kills the whole cash game. I will pair QB with RB more often than WR, so if one side of the offense fails, I have the other part. Also like pairing RB with the same defense or kicker. If they get up early, both will benefit. Triple stack can be mixed in here too under the same theory, but I do that more in gpps.
jdoggydogg
Footballguy
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Basically what jersey said. I think the main thoughts on cash:
- You are generally looking for 2x (120pts)
- Expect more from your QB 2.x, so maybe look to pay up here in cash to get home guys in higher totals, and also look for rushing stats to boost your floor.
- you want to play it safer b/c it doesn't matter to your winnings in a 50/50 if you finish 49th or 1st.
- I think the tips for looking for matchups and targets are the same, but we might lean more to the stats and odds of positions doing better RBs favored at home, TEs at home, etc.
- We need to think about players that are gpp plays, cash plays, or both. You'd rather have the 'boring' Wr that gets his steady 10-14pts/game and sees consistent work vs. the guy that disappears for 2 games and then shows up for his 24pt game. (think Crabtree vs. Cooper here).
- IF you are just doing 50/50s you probably don't need to stack, but if you are going to enter your cash LU into 3xs, 5x, a gpp or 100 person contest, you probably want a stack in there for some extra boost.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
A few people have posted that they aren't good at gpp LUs. We have talked in here a bit that we probably do make it too hard or try to get too weird with it. Like I posted above, we need the good solid chalk plays to boost the point floor, and then just 1-3 lower % guys to push the LU ahead of the pack.
Instead of designing a whole new LU, I have seen a couple places say to first do your cash LU and then just make one bigger tweak to it and go from there.
Ie let's say that this week (I am not sure on if the salaries work, just throwing #### out there) we think a cash build is something like Stafford - Bell/Howard - Green/R.Anderson/Shepard - Brate - K - Pitts. Now, just do something to one position. I will go to Gronk at TE instead of Brate. Now you have a few K less to spend elsewhere, so maybe that makes you drop to McCown to pair with Anderson, another cheap RB to pair with Howard, etc.. I makes you move a couple spots around and probably makes your LU different enough because of it. Same thing would happen if you go from Stafford to Brock O or a cheap QB like that. Now you have a bunch of salary to put elsewhere. OR just do pivots at the same salary range. Instead of Green or Julio who will be really popular, maybe do M.Thomas who people have probably given up on. Instead of Stafford, plop in Brady, etc..
Another tip that I keep hearing is to not be afraid to leave a few 100 in salary on the table. We all have that gut reaction to say well, I have 500 left, I need to upgrade at K or D or something, but that is also what a lot of optimizers on sites do, so if you leave 500 on the table on a gpp LU you are probably different just because of that.
NOW, if you are doing 20LUs + you probably need to get weirder or dig deeper, but for most of us just throwing an entry or two into SE gpps, a tweak of our cash plays is probably a good place to start.
Instead of designing a whole new LU, I have seen a couple places say to first do your cash LU and then just make one bigger tweak to it and go from there.
Ie let's say that this week (I am not sure on if the salaries work, just throwing #### out there) we think a cash build is something like Stafford - Bell/Howard - Green/R.Anderson/Shepard - Brate - K - Pitts. Now, just do something to one position. I will go to Gronk at TE instead of Brate. Now you have a few K less to spend elsewhere, so maybe that makes you drop to McCown to pair with Anderson, another cheap RB to pair with Howard, etc.. I makes you move a couple spots around and probably makes your LU different enough because of it. Same thing would happen if you go from Stafford to Brock O or a cheap QB like that. Now you have a bunch of salary to put elsewhere. OR just do pivots at the same salary range. Instead of Green or Julio who will be really popular, maybe do M.Thomas who people have probably given up on. Instead of Stafford, plop in Brady, etc..
Another tip that I keep hearing is to not be afraid to leave a few 100 in salary on the table. We all have that gut reaction to say well, I have 500 left, I need to upgrade at K or D or something, but that is also what a lot of optimizers on sites do, so if you leave 500 on the table on a gpp LU you are probably different just because of that.
NOW, if you are doing 20LUs + you probably need to get weirder or dig deeper, but for most of us just throwing an entry or two into SE gpps, a tweak of our cash plays is probably a good place to start.
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reel_smooth
Footballguy
Pretty much came up with these three as the only ones I'm looking at. Chicago definitely a decent GPP option, IMO.
jerseys finest
Footballguy
This is a good strategy and one I usually try and apply to my gpps as well. I do the 1 & 2 dollar SE T-M and Sunday main. So $6 a week. Those are the ones I base off my few cash game lineups and make a couple switches to get some low end high ceiling players mixed in. I run $20 in cash games. 3 $5 50/50s, then a mix of $1 and $2 x3 x5 multipliers.KarmaPolice said:
I do 2-4 more dollars in .25, .50, .10, maybe a 1 or 2$ 100 person game, 5 or so extra entries. This is where I throw together bonkers lineups that I would never feel confident running in anything bigger. One of my cheapies(that what I call them, lol), has Fitzmagic, Gurley, Bell, Brown, DJax, ASJ this week, insanely pricey for the 3 big boys, short basically every other position, but it's very possible it cashs if they all hit. (#revengegame is just fun to root for) It's Just so cheap, I don't mind losing the quarter. It's fun, like a scratch off lottery ticket, it's almost a different game in my head and for a buck or two or extra a week, it keeps me from getting too ballsy with the gpps I'm really trying to do well in.
jerseys finest
Footballguy
I've used the chargers in one of my cheapie gpps. They need to win this game, have a solid defense and IF they can contain fournette and force bortles to beat them, that defense could put up some points.reel_smooth said:
reel_smooth
Footballguy
Actually, looking at another option in TENN. Decent price, 5 point favorite at home, low-score projection. Projected ownership 3%.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
We talk a lot about gpps and LUs, but we also need to remember that not all gpps are the same. I would assume that the higher you get in price and the lower you get in # of entries, the more like a cash LU the entries will be. When we are talking about a 25cent 190K entry gpp, people are getting more nuts and loading up on game stacks. I would put in a couple WTF Brock stacks in a 25 cent entry. 0 change I would do that if we were talking a $20 entry.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I don't usually look too hard at away Ds, but NO is another that looks like it might be low owned again. Jets were able to get to Tyrod a bit last week, and NO looks like they have the 2nd best matchup as far as Adjusted Sack Rates go.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Oh man, seems like a lot of the stuff I have been reading and hearing is pointing to starting Fitzpatrick in cash. Just goes against what I usually do, but it gives you something like this:
Fitz - Bell/Howard - Brown/Julio or Green/Shepard - V.Davis - 4.7 or 4.8 K - Chicago.
Fitz - Bell/Howard - Brown/Julio or Green/Shepard - V.Davis - 4.7 or 4.8 K - Chicago.
dschuler
Footballguy
Where can you see projected ownership? Always wanted to know that, thanks in advance to anyone who can help.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I don't know anywhere you can get them for free. Fbgs has it in the pay section, as do 4for4, Rotogrinders, etc..
Galileo
Footballguy
I keep changing and changing. Too many lineups at the moment.
1. Stafford - Bell/Fournette - Green/M. Jones/Shepard - Celek - Boswell - Chicago (Roll the dice on Celek vs NYG? Nice to get Green in there)
2. Stafford - Bell/Fournette - Theilin/M. Jones/Shepard - Walker - Boswell - Chicago (upgrade from Celek but lose AJG)
3. Stafford - Bell/Morris - Green/Woods/Shepard - Gronk - Boswell - Chicago (I don't think I can trust Morris for cash game at this point, but cheap let's me get to Gronk and Green, hmmmmm...)
4. McCown - Bell/Fournette - Green/M. Jones/Shepard - Rudolph - Boswell - Chicago (drop from Stafford???)
1. Stafford - Bell/Fournette - Green/M. Jones/Shepard - Celek - Boswell - Chicago (Roll the dice on Celek vs NYG? Nice to get Green in there)
2. Stafford - Bell/Fournette - Theilin/M. Jones/Shepard - Walker - Boswell - Chicago (upgrade from Celek but lose AJG)
3. Stafford - Bell/Morris - Green/Woods/Shepard - Gronk - Boswell - Chicago (I don't think I can trust Morris for cash game at this point, but cheap let's me get to Gronk and Green, hmmmmm...)
4. McCown - Bell/Fournette - Green/M. Jones/Shepard - Rudolph - Boswell - Chicago (drop from Stafford???)
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https://www.linestarapp.com/Ownership/Sport/NFL/Site/FanDueldschuler said:
Shows projected ownership, but I don't think they are very accurate.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
So Forte is out, does that plop Powell in as a near cash lock at 6K now, especially if it means that you now don't have to trust a guy like Fitzpatrick in cash and we can pay up at QB?
If so, I have a couple questions -
Does that mean something like Stafford - Bell/Powell - Brown/Shepard/Marvin - Brate - PK - Chicago is what a lot of LUs will look like?
Is it one of those weeks were it seems obvious what to do and people will be highly owned that it's an annoying cash week in that it might come down to your PK and TE b/c just about everybody has the same QB/RB/Def/cheap WR in cash?
If so, I have a couple questions -
Does that mean something like Stafford - Bell/Powell - Brown/Shepard/Marvin - Brate - PK - Chicago is what a lot of LUs will look like?
Is it one of those weeks were it seems obvious what to do and people will be highly owned that it's an annoying cash week in that it might come down to your PK and TE b/c just about everybody has the same QB/RB/Def/cheap WR in cash?
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KarmaPolice
Footballguy
IF you do this and really like Green + Gronk, how about trying Ben with Bell and that would free up a little cash, and maybe get you to Powell or something? Also you could try the Dallas K for a little cheaper since without Zeke and Dez maybe being hobbled, they might me less efficient in the RZ.
Galileo
Footballguy
Now you're going to make me play around some more...
I could move to McCown as well and get Morris up to Powell...errr than I would have a McCown/Powell stack...meh...Not a fan of Ben on the road.
dschuler
Footballguy
Got a sneaky Blake Bortles play as I don’t think many will use him. He’s averaging almost 300 yards and a touchdown in his last three games and Fournette comes back, maybe the Chargers stack the box and he gets a couple big ones.
QB - Bortles
RB - Howard Hyde
WR - Lee Green Jones
TE - Gronk
K - Catanzaro
Def - Bills
QB - Bortles
RB - Howard Hyde
WR - Lee Green Jones
TE - Gronk
K - Catanzaro
Def - Bills
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
Not making you do anything, just thinking out loud.Now you're going to make me play around some more...
Also, a couple podcasts said his home/road stuff doesn't apply, and he plays well in domes.
dschuler
Footballguy
At this point I’m trying to stay away from Bell, Gurley, Brown, and Stafford/Marvin and hope they tank. Not even sure if it’s worth using them and I expect a lot of those lineups. I really like Big Ben this week though, so I used a couple lineups with Juju and a small flyer with Ben/Brown. Not a lot of strong high dollar RB or WR options this week with good matchups, which leads me to believe there will be a lot of very similar lineups.
So many people love the cheaper WRs too in Shepard, Anderson, Marvin, Tate that I am starting to second guess myself here.
I haven’t had anyone say they love Gordon, Thompson, or A Jones at RB and everyone seems to love Hyde, McKinnon, Powell, and Howard.
A weird lineup that makes absolutely no sense could takedown a large pool this weekend I think.
Galileo
Footballguy
Oh, I know... I would be doing it anyway. I appreciate the thoughts...that’s why we post this stuff here. Tapping into the sounding board.Not making you do anything, just thinking out loud.
Also, a couple podcasts said his home/road stuff doesn't apply, and he plays well in domes.
KarmaPolice
Footballguy
I should have specified that my question was if that is what all cash LUs will look like this weekend. Gpps is anything goes and there are so many ways to go with them.
I have Gordon pretty high up on my list, and Freeman might be getting more of my money if he is starting. I like those two, McCoy, and Ingram as gpp pivots off Bell/Gurley and the 6K rbs that you mentioned too.
Almost everything I have heard and read have brought up those 3 WRs you mention, so for gpps it might be interesting to pay up more at all 3 spots or just find pivots there too in the same range - JuJu/Bryant, Watkins, Sanu, etc..
I don't know about about the doen't make sense part, but I get what you are saying.
One weird thought that keeps popping in my head Is that I keep seeing value plays being brought up from that ugly looking Giants/SF game - Hyde, Celek, Engram, Shepard. Those are two of the fastest paced teams and two of the worst Ds going against each other - do we dare combine some of those plays for a game stack at low ownership? Eli -Shepard - Engram - Hyde?
Galileo
Footballguy
I keep hearing about that game as well. Makes sense with those horrid defenses. Your stack looks good to me, but I am a cash game player, so I won’t be using it. I do plan to use Shepard.
reel_smooth
Footballguy
SF - worst run DEF in the NFL.
Orleans Darkwa, anyone?
Orleans Darkwa, anyone?
Ever Present Lurker
Footballguy
Not getting a lot of traction in this thread, but what am I missing about Garrett Celek? Seems like the cheapest "sure thing" you can get vs the Giants. They've yet to stop ANY TE this season. Have I taken the "start your TE vs the NYG" to far????
reel_smooth
Footballguy
Current cash L/U, predicated on Julio Jones being healthy & starting:
QB/ Fitzpatrick, RB/ Fournette - J. Howard, WR/ J. Jones - R. Anderson - M. Jones Jr., TE/ Gronkowski, K/ Barth, DEF/CHI
So many good choices this week, especially at RB. Number of good QB choices & cheap value at WR. Tough decisions, but, I do like Fitzpatrick and being able to spend up for Fournette, Jones & Gronk. I can easily see Gronkowski w/ 2 TD's.
QB/ Fitzpatrick, RB/ Fournette - J. Howard, WR/ J. Jones - R. Anderson - M. Jones Jr., TE/ Gronkowski, K/ Barth, DEF/CHI
So many good choices this week, especially at RB. Number of good QB choices & cheap value at WR. Tough decisions, but, I do like Fitzpatrick and being able to spend up for Fournette, Jones & Gronk. I can easily see Gronkowski w/ 2 TD's.
