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2018 Elections Thread

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1 hour ago, TobiasFunke said:

I want to make sure to reach across the aisle to our conservative friends as well.  Here's an article about some Republican congressmen who could use your help paying their legal fees to fight indictments and allegations of election law violations. Plenty of options available!

At another board one of the righties called lawsuits against Republicans for election law violation as "Democratic voter suppression tactics." I crap you not.

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2 hours ago, msommer said:

Why these mid terms are different

From BBC

 

Don't read too much into early-voting numbers.

Don't read too much into early-voting numbers.

Don't read too much into early-voting numbers.

DO NOT READ TOO MUCH INTO EARLY-VOTING NUMBERS!

(Sorry, not criticizing you. Just repeating my mantra in order to keep myself sane.)

All kidding aside, there is a lot of debate over the significance of early voting; the argument is that EVs are almost exclusively people who were going to vote anyway, so the numbers don't really shed much light on how the race will turn out.

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1 minute ago, zftcg said:

All kidding aside, there is a lot of debate over the significance of early voting; the argument is that EVs are almost exclusively people who were going to vote anyway, so the numbers don't really shed much light on how the race will turn out.

I agree with this completely! 

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32 minutes ago, the moops said:

538 podcast yesterday reiterated that there is a 40% chance that either the dems take the senate or the repubs hold the house

And from today's "Significant digits" piece:

Quote

The midterm elections are 19 (!) days away, and our governors forecast has arrived! Overall, 193 million people are forecast to be governed by Democrats and 135 million people by Republicans. However, that corresponds to 23.6 and 26.4 states, respectively. The closest races are in Georgia, Nevada and Ohio. [FiveThirtyEight]

Minority rule rulez!

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37 minutes ago, the moops said:

538 podcast yesterday reiterated that there is a 40% chance that either the dems take the senate or the repubs hold the house

It'd be pretty funny if both happened.

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34 minutes ago, the moops said:

They said the chances of both those things were miniscule.

probably 4%?

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4 hours ago, TobiasFunke said:

This effort is probably well over $150,000 at this point. The guys running it are looking to expand to other state-level candidates.

Here's a story about one of the eight candidates benefiting from the effort, and what our money has done for her campaign to flip the Minnesota House of Representatives.  Give it a read if you need a little pick-me-up this morning.

Now that the original effort to fund key state legislature campaigns is over the $200,000 mark, the long-awaited sequel is here.

Give Smart 2: Give Smarter

Looks like they're already up over $55,000, setting up the possibility of Give Smart 3: Give With a Vengeance.  For those who missed it earlier, here's some backstory about this effort. That writeup also includes a link to more detailed information about the eight candidates they chose for this round.

 

We're all we got, we're all we need.

 

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52 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

"People say I have the best science."

"I assure you, there is no problem with my science"

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17 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

As a dem I'd rather have the senate. Gum up those federal court nominations.

Oh yeah. But the demographics are aligned right now that about 30% of the population will dominate the Senate for years to come. We'll be lucky to have social security or Medicare by the time that bunch is through ravaging the nation and a big enough portion of the electorate finally cries "enough."

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5 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Oh yeah. But the demographics are aligned right now that about 30% of the population will dominate the Senate for years to come. We'll be lucky to have social security or Medicare by the time that bunch is through ravaging the nation and a big enough portion of the electorate finally cries "enough."

I think GA, NC, NV, AZ, FL are all itching to turn blue forever soon. Maybe not 2018 or 2020, but soon.

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28 minutes ago, Jackstraw said:

As a dem I'd rather have the senate. Gum up those federal court nominations.

Senate doesn't really have an equivalent to the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, though.  If we were choosing congressional committees draft-style that would be my #1 overall pick for the Dems as long as Trump is around.

 

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5 minutes ago, Dedfin said:

I think GA, NC, NV, AZ, FL are all itching to turn blue forever soon. Maybe not 2018 or 2020, but soon.

From a first past the post, horse race POV, watching demographics change states' colors over the years certainly is something interesting to observe. I'm guilty of doing it all the time. But it really gets in the way of debating more modern and effective voting methods that enhance the democratic process, things like proportional voting, approval voting and instant runoff.

You pointed out five really good candidates for turning blue, as domestic immigrants flock to the cities and the hispanic populations continue to grow. Oddly enough, some of the old Rust Belt states are swinging in the other direction. But those states are losing representatives while the southern and western states are gaining them.

Oh, Congress needs to be 200% bigger, too.

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I've mentioned a bunch of times around here that the narrative about the Dem messaging is far from the truth.  They're focused on the issues they should be focused on, health care and the tax scam. Cable news is falling for the Trump "outrageous nonsense of the day" trap, but the candidates are not. Here is more evidence of this:

Quote

If anyone still thinks Democrats don't have a message focus in this election -- they do, and it's health care. New analysis finds it was mentioned in 61% of Democratic House ads between mid-September and mid-October.

 

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1 hour ago, roadkill1292 said:

From a first past the post, horse race POV, watching demographics change states' colors over the years certainly is something interesting to observe. I'm guilty of doing it all the time. But it really gets in the way of debating more modern and effective voting methods that enhance the democratic process, things like proportional voting, approval voting and instant runoff.

You pointed out five really good candidates for turning blue, as domestic immigrants flock to the cities and the hispanic populations continue to grow. Oddly enough, some of the old Rust Belt states are swinging in the other direction. But those states are losing representatives while the southern and western states are gaining them.

Oh, Congress needs to be 200% bigger, too.

So do you mean 970 or 1305?

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2 hours ago, roadkill1292 said:

Oh yeah. But the demographics are aligned right now that about 30% of the population will dominate the Senate for years to come. We'll be lucky to have social security or Medicare by the time that bunch is through ravaging the nation and a big enough portion of the electorate finally cries "enough."

It’s total armageddon as an army of protestors have overloaded messagboards everywhere with angry rants and ironic memes.  Netflix streaming speeds have slowed to a crawl.  People have had enough!!!  If it wasn’t drizzling outside they might even be angry enough to vote!!!

 

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Ballot box access will be more difficult in Dodge City, Kansas, where Hispanics make up 60% of the 27,000 residents.

The city has only one polling site. Officials moved it this year outside city limits to a facility more than a mile from a bus stop.

https://www.kansas.com/news/business/article220286260.html

 

:angry:

In other words, in order to vote you have get the hell out of Dodge.

 

Edited by squistion
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23 hours ago, TobiasFunke said:

Now that the original effort to fund key state legislature campaigns is over the $200,000 mark, the long-awaited sequel is here.

Give Smart 2: Give Smarter

Looks like they're already up over $55,000, setting up the possibility of Give Smart 3: Give With a Vengeance.  For those who missed it earlier, here's some backstory about this effort. That writeup also includes a link to more detailed information about the eight candidates they chose for this round.

 

We're all we got, we're all we need.

 

As anticipated ...

Give Smart 3: Give With a Vengeance

Going hard after the Ohio legislature here.

They've raised over $500,000 so far.  Absolutely amazing.  I'll stop posting each new one here, don't want to turn the FFA into a fundraising site.  If you want more you can follow @SeanMcElwee,  @bobbybigwheel, @dataprogress or @launchprogress on Twitter.  If you gave, you have my eternal gratitude and a standing offer for a round of beers next time you're in DC. If you didn't, you have a standing offer for a round of beers.

 

Edited by TobiasFunke
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11 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

As anticipated ...

Give Smart 3: Give With a Vengeance

Going hard after the Ohio legislature here.

They've raised over $500,000 so far.  Absolutely amazing.  I'll stop posting each new one here, don't want to turn the FFA into a fundraising site.  If you want more you can follow @SeanMcElwee,  @bobbybigwheel, @dataprogress or @launchprogress on Twitter.  If you gave, you have my eternal gratitude and a standing offer for a round of beers next time you're in DC. If you didn't, you have a standing offer for a round of beers.

 

☝️☝️☝️

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44 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

As anticipated ...

Give Smart 3: Give With a Vengeance

They've raised over $500,000 so far.  Absolutely amazing.  I'll stop posting each new one here, don't want to turn the FFA into a fundraising site.  If you want more you can follow @SeanMcElwee,  @bobbybigwheel, @dataprogress or @launchprogress on Twitter.  If you gave, you have my eternal gratitude and a standing offer for a round of beers next time you're in DC. If you didn't, you have a standing offer for a round of beers.

 

Thanks for this.  Donated some more.

 

 

 

 

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On 10/18/2018 at 9:01 AM, roadkill1292 said:

At another board one of the righties called lawsuits against Republicans for election law violation as "Democratic voter suppression tactics." I crap you not.

It's nice to be able to make political arguments unfettered by facts or accuracy.

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