Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
squistion

2018 Elections Thread

Recommended Posts

48 minutes ago, Steve Tasker said:

I'm not sure Trump represents any sort of movement other than self-preservation and self-aggrandizement.  I don't think that Trump cares about anything other than his ego and his wallet.  He doesn't give two ####s about the Republican Party or its constituents, except to the extent that they vote to keep him in power, allow him to keep enriching himself. and keep him out of prison.  Whatever he needs to say, whoever he needs to insult, he'll do it for the short-term popularity gains.  There is no rhyme or reason or cohesive message.

My post had very little to do with Trump himself; I was describing the movement that supports him.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Now do New Jersey.

Biggest failure of recruiting on the Dem side this year. Allowed the Jersey machine to keep on rolling and Menendez to get a pass to the general. Huge missed opportunity.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I mentioned this in the "predictions" thread but this tweet expands on it a bit more:

 

Quote

Gabriel Debenedetti‏ @gdebenedetti

The political world really hasn't properly wrapped its head around the fact that we could soon be looking at:

• a weeks-long vote count in CA congressional races that could determine control of the House

• a run-off in GA's gubernatorial race

• another in MS' senate contest

 

 

At a minimum people should be prepared for the possibility- maybe even the likelihood- that the east coast will go to bed tomorrow night not knowing which party will control the House. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Steve Tasker said:

I've been seeing commercials for a woman in one of our local statewide races, not my district, and I couldn't figure out what party she was in - doesn't say in the ad.  I kept seeing ads for her so I googled her and found her website.....still, nothing on the website at all about what party she's in.  Finally a few days ago I saw a TV ad for her opponent that calls her an extreme liberal who is going to try to take away guns and raise property taxes on middle-class families.....finally answered the question.

There's a guy here doing that. I had to look him up to learn he's the GOP challenger to my incumbent congressman. He's running as an "Immigrant- American". Even his yard signs say "Immigrant-American for Congress" with no GOP mention at all. I have a theory he's hoping people will think he's a Dem. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 minutes ago, Gopher State said:

They don’t stand a chance the Dems will send pelosi to lead the battle

Getting a little esoteric. Can you be more specific? Going for some light mysogyny here? Commie labeling? 

I'm not really sure what angle you're working. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Bruce Dickinson said:

 

I hope Sharice Davids wins in KS-03.  It was a good campaign, focused on local people and local issues.  A lot of the voters we reached out to were most concerned with the future of their healthcare, their jobs, and their kids’ educations.  

I think Davids clearly showed she is the better choice to represent working people’s interests on health care and education, and has a better eye on the future of the job market.  

Got crappy rainy weather here today but it will warm up a bit tomorrow and be sunny for a while.  I hope that helps turnout.  Like most places with close races, early voting is up here, but I don’t read much into that - IMO it’s more awareness and acceptance of the convenience of early voting than passion about a candidate or issue.

I’m worried about Kobach becoming governor here.  He’s a toxic person who will stain the state.  We’ve got a good thing going with tech startups locating here because of the low cost of living, but I’m concerned making Kobach the Governor will scare the next wave of startups away, and our established tech companies here like Garmin, Sprint, and Cerner will lose out of good workers relocating here to work for them because of Kobach.  We’re committed to living in our current home for another three years, but after that we will have a lot of options and flexibility.  Two terms of Brownback was awful but all the bad he did can be undone with a competent successor.  But Kobach?  That’s going to be tougher to recover from.

Thanks to everyone here for their encouraging words, ideas for engagement, and most of all sharing all y’all did this cycle.  It helped me out a lot, and inspired me to do more than I would have otherwise.

I won’t be posting here much after the election for a variety of reasons, so I wanted to say thanks.

ETA: and may each and every one of you , at some point in your lives, enjoy your work as much as Steve Kornacki will enjoy his tomorrow night.

As a fellow Kansan, I have resigned myself to the fact it will be Kobach as our next Governor. He will be horrible, his policies will negatively impact those who voted for him, and they will gladly vote vote for him again. Just sad.  I do hold out hope for Paul Davis in KS-02. Hes run a good campaign and has a real shot of winning.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, tuffnutt said:

As a fellow Kansan, I have resigned myself to the fact it will be Kobach as our next Governor. He will be horrible, his policies will negatively impact those who voted for him, and they will gladly vote vote for him again. Just sad.  I do hold out hope for Paul Davis in KS-02. Hes run a good campaign and has a real shot of winning.

Davis and his campaign did some hard, hard work making that race competitive.  They outraised Watkins by a bunch, and got the race close enough to get some PAC air strikes called in on Watkins down the stretch.  I’m hopeful the large undecideds break towards the opposition party, and the perceived close race promotes big turnout - KS-02 and KS-03 are large enough to push Kelly into the end zone.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, AAABatteries said:

Uncertain if you agree or disagree with me.

I was affirming your statement

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, TobiasFunke said:

At a minimum people should be prepared for the possibility- maybe even the likelihood- that the east coast will go to bed tomorrow night not knowing which party will control the House. 

 

I’ll stay up all night!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’ll be voting for Perry Gershon in the NY 1st Congressional District. He’ll be taking out Lee Zeldin who was given a pass on the tax cut travesty, but his party did it, and people on Long Island are pissed about it. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Can’t wait to see what happens down there tomorrow.  

Im nervous.   I think the red hats are mobilized.   Hope Tim has a better feel than me on this one.  

Anyway, going to be the most interesting midterm ever.  The world is watching.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Biggest results tomorrow won't be the Senate or House races - it will be the Gubernatorial races, and state legislature races.  Those are the people who will be responsible for re-drawing  congressional districts after the 2020 census.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Biggest results tomorrow won't be the Senate or House races - it will be the Gubernatorial races, and state legislature races.  Those are the people who will be responsible for re-drawing  congressional districts after the 2020 census.

Once again - Colorado is leading the Nation. A set of Ballot initiatives that end gerrymandering

 

https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado_Redistricting_of_Congressional_Districts_Initiative_(2018)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Grace Under Pressure said:

I’ll be voting for Perry Gershon in the NY 1st Congressional District. He’ll be taking out Lee Zeldin who was given a pass on the tax cut travesty, but his party did it, and people on Long Island are pissed about it. 

That is a tough race and I hope Perry pulls it out but not sure he will. I actually think there is a better chance of taking out Pete King in island. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, ffldrew said:

Once again - Colorado is leading the Nation. A set of Ballot initiatives that end gerrymandering

 

https://ballotpedia.org/Colorado_Redistricting_of_Congressional_Districts_Initiative_(2018)

Well, 4 other states have similar measures.

 

I would generally be opposed to the Colorado initiative as it is set up:

 

Amendment Y would create a 12-member independent congressional redistricting commission that would be responsible for redistricting Colorado's seven U.S. House districts. The commission would include four members from the state’s largest political party, four from the state’s second largest political party, and four that are not affiliated with any political party. The final map would require the approval of eight of the 12 members, including at least 2 members that are not affiliated with any political party. It would also require approval by the Colorado Supreme Court. Under the amendment, districts would need to be competitive. Competitive is defined in the amendment as having a reasonable potential to change parties at least once every ten years. Measuring competitiveness would entail evidenced-based analyses, voter registration data, and past election results. Upon the approval of a final map (redistricting plan), the commission would be required to create a report demonstrating the extent to which districts would be competitive.[3]

The map approved by the commission and by the Colorado Supreme Court would not be subject to legislative approval or the governor's veto or to veto referendum petitions.[3]

 

I don't know what the current procedure is in Colorado - but this looks like a nightmare - from finding 4 "independent" members, to defining "competitive".  It seems to me - the party that "wins" the "independent" battle, wins the war here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Sinn Fein said:

Well, 4 other states have similar measures.

 

I would generally be opposed to the Colorado initiative as it is set up:

 

Amendment Y would create a 12-member independent congressional redistricting commission that would be responsible for redistricting Colorado's seven U.S. House districts. The commission would include four members from the state’s largest political party, four from the state’s second largest political party, and four that are not affiliated with any political party. The final map would require the approval of eight of the 12 members, including at least 2 members that are not affiliated with any political party. It would also require approval by the Colorado Supreme Court. Under the amendment, districts would need to be competitive. Competitive is defined in the amendment as having a reasonable potential to change parties at least once every ten years. Measuring competitiveness would entail evidenced-based analyses, voter registration data, and past election results. Upon the approval of a final map (redistricting plan), the commission would be required to create a report demonstrating the extent to which districts would be competitive.[3]

The map approved by the commission and by the Colorado Supreme Court would not be subject to legislative approval or the governor's veto or to veto referendum petitions.[3]

 

I don't know what the current procedure is in Colorado - but this looks like a nightmare - from finding 4 "independent" members, to defining "competitive".  It seems to me - the party that "wins" the "independent" battle, wins the war here. 

Seems like a lot of incentive to claim you're unaffiliated and then sell your vote to the highest bidder.  Creating political mercenaries seems problematic.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The latest on Georgia's stealable-by-design election:  https://whowhatwhy.org/2018/11/04/kemps-aggressive-gambit-to-distract-from-election-security-crisis/

Quote

When Georgia Democrats were alerted to what they believe to be major vulnerabilities in the state’s voter registration system Saturday, they contacted computer security experts who verified the problems. They then notified Secretary of State Brian Kemp’s lawyers and national intelligence officials in the hope of getting the problems fixed.

Instead of addressing the security issues, Kemp’s office put out a statement Sunday saying he had opened an investigation that targets the Democrats for hacking.

Quote

WhoWhatWhy, which exclusively reported on these vulnerabilities Sunday morning, had consulted with five computer security experts on Saturday to verify the seriousness of the situation. They confirmed that these security gaps would allow even a low-skilled hacker to compromise Georgia’s voter registration system and, in turn, the election itself. It is not known how long these vulnerabilities have existed or whether they have been exploited.

Just before noon on Saturday, a third party provided WhoWhatWhy with an email and document sent from the Democratic Party of Georgia to election security experts that highlighted these potential vulnerabilities within the state’s My Voter Page and online voter registration system.

According to the document, it would not be difficult for almost anyone with minimal computer expertise to access millions of voters’ private information and potentially make changes to their registrations — including canceling them.

In this election and during the primaries, voters have reported not showing up in the poll books, being assigned to the wrong precinct, and being issued the wrong ballot.

All of that could be explained by a bad actor changing voter registration data.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just occurred to me.  On Election Day 2016, I had a late afternoon meeting with execs at one of the major liberal media companies (been two years, so might as well reveal it was VICE in their Brooklyn HQ).  We know how that turned out.  Tomorrow, I have a late afternoon meeting with execs at one of the major right wing media companies at their HQ.  I hope I end up being a curse on their house too.

Edited by Mr. Ham
  • Like 1
  • Thinking 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, Redwes25 said:

That is a tough race and I hope Perry pulls it out but not sure he will. I actually think there is a better chance of taking out Pete King in island. 

That would be big,. Nassau County broke for Hillary, Suffolk went for Trump, so we could see Pete King, formerly known as Peter King, go down tomorrow. 

Edited by Grace Under Pressure

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sinn Fein said:

Well, 4 other states have similar measures.

 

I would generally be opposed to the Colorado initiative as it is set up:

 

Amendment Y would create a 12-member independent congressional redistricting commission that would be responsible for redistricting Colorado's seven U.S. House districts. The commission would include four members from the state’s largest political party, four from the state’s second largest political party, and four that are not affiliated with any political party. The final map would require the approval of eight of the 12 members, including at least 2 members that are not affiliated with any political party. It would also require approval by the Colorado Supreme Court. Under the amendment, districts would need to be competitive. Competitive is defined in the amendment as having a reasonable potential to change parties at least once every ten years. Measuring competitiveness would entail evidenced-based analyses, voter registration data, and past election results. Upon the approval of a final map (redistricting plan), the commission would be required to create a report demonstrating the extent to which districts would be competitive.[3]

The map approved by the commission and by the Colorado Supreme Court would not be subject to legislative approval or the governor's veto or to veto referendum petitions.[3]

 

I don't know what the current procedure is in Colorado - but this looks like a nightmare - from finding 4 "independent" members, to defining "competitive".  It seems to me - the party that "wins" the "independent" battle, wins the war here. 

Take a look at the outline in the Colorado Blue Book - for Y - to get some details. 

https://leg.colorado.gov/sites/default/files/2018_english_final_for_internet_updated_language_73_0.pdf

(The book explains all the initiatives and amendments) 

The Republicans ran a midnight run around 2 cycles ago where they fixed it for the GOP - since then the GOP has been getting beat back in the House and Senate - the last two went to court for finality. The state has some dumb drawings and weird hookups(better than the old GOP plan) - but a couple of districts are drawn up super weird with little commonality of constituents - east slope v west slope - rural and city. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

really is disgusting what Kemp is trying to get away with

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A little more than 24 hours from now Trump will declare victory. If Republicans do well, Trump will take credit If Democrats do well Trump will say it would have been much worse without his rallies. He will also blame “illegal” voters and the media.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
52 minutes ago, joffer said:

really is disgusting what Kemp is trying to get away with

It’s outrageous.  So wrong.  Just horribly, horribly wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Bruce Dickinson said:

 

I hope Sharice Davids wins in KS-03.  It was a good campaign, focused on local people and local issues.  A lot of the voters we reached out to were most concerned with the future of their healthcare, their jobs, and their kids’ educations.  

I think Davids clearly showed she is the better choice to represent working people’s interests on health care and education, and has a better eye on the future of the job market.  

Got crappy rainy weather here today but it will warm up a bit tomorrow and be sunny for a while.  I hope that helps turnout.  Like most places with close races, early voting is up here, but I don’t read much into that - IMO it’s more awareness and acceptance of the convenience of early voting than passion about a candidate or issue.

I’m worried about Kobach becoming governor here.  He’s a toxic person who will stain the state.  We’ve got a good thing going with tech startups locating here because of the low cost of living, but I’m concerned making Kobach the Governor will scare the next wave of startups away, and our established tech companies here like Garmin, Sprint, and Cerner will lose out of good workers relocating here to work for them because of Kobach.  We’re committed to living in our current home for another three years, but after that we will have a lot of options and flexibility.  Two terms of Brownback was awful but all the bad he did can be undone with a competent successor.  But Kobach?  That’s going to be tougher to recover from.

Thanks to everyone here for their encouraging words, ideas for engagement, and most of all sharing all y’all did this cycle.  It helped me out a lot, and inspired me to do more than I would have otherwise.

I won’t be posting here much after the election for a variety of reasons, so I wanted to say thanks.

ETA: and may each and every one of you , at some point in your lives, enjoy your work as much as Steve Kornacki will enjoy his tomorrow night.

Davids has gotten an enormous amount of grassroots support and enthusiasm in KS-03 and it's been awesome to see. Local volunteers have put so much effort into that race and I hope it pays off tomorrow night (I like the odds). I don't like Paul Davis's odds as much, but 538 has his chances at 51 to 62 percent, depending on which model you use. That's as much as you can ask for in a fairly red district like KS-02. 

The governor's race scares me as well - 2014's debacle made me question whether or not KS would ever elect another democratic governor. If the least popular governor in the country can win a second term simply because he's a republican, how is any R nominee going to lose here? I don't know how Kobach's disapproval ratings compare to Brownback's in 2014, but I can't imagine they're much worse. People ####### hated Brownback. Plus, Kobach is polling a bit better than Brownback did four years ago, so this one is going to be an uphill battle. That being said, two competitive house races this year is a big factor that wasn't present in 2014, and maybe that will be enough to tilt the scales. We'll see. 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Bruce Dickinson said:

I’m already looking forward to seeing how the women who ran for office in 2018 inspire more women to run in 2020.  

And oh yeah, that’s gonna leave a mark.

Women have a strong talking point going into 2020. Anniversary of 100 years of them having the right to vote. Women should be on the ticket in 2020, a lot. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, James Daulton said:

When has massive voter turnout ever been good for the party in power?

Hopefully not today

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, James Daulton said:

When has massive voter turnout ever been good for the party in power?

Never.

Until MAGA.

You people mock #walkaway and try to discount it because a few trolls retweeted a hashtag.

The reality is most Americans are happier and better off today than anytime under Obama. When people are getting paychecks instead of welfare, or bigger paychecks than before, they really don't give a #### about 99% of the stuff CNN and the Dem leadership  talk about.

It really is that simple. Being able to take care of one's family is the most important thing. It is a luxury to be able to argue on the internet about things like what year the Earth is going to end because of global warming or how mean someone on Twitter is. 

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, NFL2DF said:

Never.

Until MAGA.

You people mock #walkaway and try to discount it because a few trolls retweeted a hashtag.

The reality is most Americans are happier and better off today than anytime under Obama. When people are getting paychecks instead of welfare, or bigger paychecks than before, they really don't give a #### about 99% of the stuff CNN and the Dem leadership  talk about.

It really is that simple. Being able to take care of one's family is the most important thing. It is a luxury to be able to argue on the internet about things like what year the Earth is going to end because of global warming or how mean someone on Twitter is. 

 

Real wages are up 0%, unemployment is 2% better, and tariffs are crushing certain industries.  Besides steel workers, how are Americans SOOOO much better off?

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
59 minutes ago, NFL2DF said:

Never.

Until MAGA.

You people mock #walkaway and try to discount it because a few trolls retweeted a hashtag.

The reality is most Americans are happier and better off today than anytime under Obama. When people are getting paychecks instead of welfare, or bigger paychecks than before, they really don't give a #### about 99% of the stuff CNN and the Dem leadership  talk about.

It really is that simple. Being able to take care of one's family is the most important thing. It is a luxury to be able to argue on the internet about things like what year the Earth is going to end because of global warming or how mean someone on Twitter is. 

 

We’ll see in a few hours. The line here is out the door at 6:50AM—looks like the weather isn’t dampening the turnout here.

One other point while I’m waiting in line: climate change isn’t about when the Earth is going to end. It’s about a lot of things—more damaging weather, endangering species, basic common sense about conservation (what should be a hallmark of “conservatives”), protecting that beach front home. The Earth is going to be just fine.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Good luck to the good guys i hope we win. Every vote counts. Its not the time to play vote strategy games with your votes. Our country is sick, we need to help it get better. :hifive:

:americanflag:

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, ren hoek said:

Please vote no on Marsy’s Law.  Looks like it creates a lot of ‘unintended’ consequences and essentially deletes constitutional rights for the accused.  

https://www.aclufl.org/sites/default/files/aclufl_position_on_ballot_amendment_6.pdf

Maybe you should vote.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, ren hoek said:

Please vote no on Marsy’s Law.  Looks like it creates a lot of ‘unintended’ consequences and essentially deletes constitutional rights for the accused.  

https://www.aclufl.org/sites/default/files/aclufl_position_on_ballot_amendment_6.pdf

I'm voting no based on my own personal "puppies are cute" rule regarding referenda. The more unobjectionable the language sounds, the more it raises my suspicions.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 hours ago, joffer said:

first time i've seen 538's classic model hit 87% on the house.

88

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pretty vulgar display last night on behalf of Fox News. Hannity and Ingraham and Limbaugh. Tell me when you see Jim Acosta speaking at a rally. 

Geraldo had a private meeting with a friend (Trump) that was in no way an endorsement and then tweeted the private non endorsement non media thingy across the universe. 

I mean shouldn't there at least be some attempt to look like media?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.