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2018 Elections Thread (2 Viewers)

I don't think it's been stopped yet, although they did fire the guy.  They haven't voted on the measure, but reading the tea leaves, you'd assume they won't go with his recommendation.
https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/24/us/randolph-county-polling-closures-vote/index.html

"In a meeting that lasted less than 60 seconds, a Georgia board of elections voted down a plan Friday to close seven of a majority-black county's nine polling places ahead of November's midterm elections."

 
Update on 2018 Senate races rated a "Toss Up" by RCP:

Florida Senate - Scott vs. Nelson

RCP Average: Scott +1.5  (R)
RCP Ranking: Toss Up

Missouri Senate - Hawley vs. McCaskill

RCP Average: Hawley +0.2  (D)
RCP Ranking: Toss Up

Indiana Senate - Braun vs. Donnelly

RCP Ranking: Toss Up

Tennessee Senate - Blackburn vs. Bredesen

RCP Average: Bredesen +1.6  (D)
RCP Ranking: Toss Up

North Dakota Senate - Cramer vs. Heitkamp

RCP Average: Cramer +0.5  (R)
RCP Ranking: Toss Up

Nevada Senate - Heller vs. Rosen

RCP Average: Rosen +0.6  (D)
RCP Ranking: Toss Up

Arizona Senate - Republican Primary

RCP Average: McSally +8.0

 
Tennessee Senate - Blackburn vs. Bredesen

RCP Average: Bredesen +1.6  (D)
RCP Ranking: Toss Up
This is huge for me...I despite Marsha Blackburn and early on she was supposed to be safe.  She is running into a guy who did well as Mayor of Nashville and then as Governor of Tennessee who is not seen as a hyper partisan liberal.  This is the seat Corker is vacating and she has been running as a full on Trump gal

 
It’s obviously not an election but the person who is nominated to replace McCain will hold his seat for another 4 years. That could be viewed as a hold or flip depending on who it is.

 
Latest meme I've been hearing: Republicans in Congress are being referred to as "Trump's handmaidens". That's pretty good, lol.

 
I’m sorry if I missed this, but the gerrymandering decision in NC may be the difference in the Democrats taking the house.

Link

The North Carolina case presented a stark example of partisan intent, with legislators making clear that the map was drawn to help one party over another.

“I think electing Republicans is better than electing Democrats,” said Rep. David Lewis, a Republican member of the North Carolina General Assembly, addressing fellow legislators when they passed the plan in 2016. “So I drew this map to help foster what I think is better for the country.”

He added: “I propose that we draw the maps to give a partisan advantage to 10 Republicans and three Democrats because I do not believe it’s possible to draw a map with 11 Republicans and two Democrats.”

When voters went to the polls that fall, the 10-3 outcome was exactly as Lewis had predicted, even though Republican candidates won just 53 percent of the statewide vote.
 
I’m sorry if I missed this, but the gerrymandering decision in NC may be the difference in the Democrats taking the house.

Link

When voters went to the polls that fall, the 10-3 outcome was exactly as Lewis had predicted, even though Republican candidates won just 53 percent of the statewide vote.
This is indefensible on every possible level.

 
[nerdalert] 

Reference to way back in this thread (so far back I'm not sure it was even this thread) -- a city initiative to implement approval voting in future Fargo elections will be on the November ballot. 

[endnerdalert]

 
Arizona and Florida primaries today.

targeted districts for Ds to flip - FL18, FL26, FL27, AZ02
They're tougher, but in AZ we're targeting CD-6 and CD-8 here, too. Lesko (CD-8) won a +20 Trump district by less than 5% in the special election, and Hiral Tipirneni was building the ground game on the fly. Now the D presence has been there for a few months so there's a an outside chance.

CD-6, where I live, is Schweikert, who's under an ethics investigation and the number of Democratic PC's here have doubled. I've looked at the early ballot totals and you're going to see record D Primary turnout here - will probably even surpass what we had during the Presidential. That's probably going to be the case for Maricopa County and possibly the state as a whole.

 
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Arizona and Florida primaries today.

targeted districts for Ds to flip - FL18, FL26, FL27, AZ02
FL27 is a guaranteed Dem pickup. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen is retiring, it's a very liberal district, and GOP couldn't get any top-tier recruits. Only question is whether it will be former HHS Secretary/UM President Donna Shalala or state rep David Richardson who gets the nomination.

FL26 doesn't have a competitive primary, but it will be a tight race in the fall. Also a very liberal district, but the difference is that the incumbent (Carlos Curbelo) is running, and he's done a good job of distancing himself from Trump. Dem candidate (Debbie Murcasel-Powell) is good but not great.

FL18 is going to be a tough one for Dems to take. The district is slightly Republican (R+5), and the incumbent (Brian Mast) is a war hero who lost both his legs in Afghanistan. Likely Dem nominee is Lauren Baer -- first time candidate, former State Department official. She's a strong enough candidate that this could go Dem if there's a big wave, but she's unlikely to outperform the generic ballot.

Other tough but potentially fippable FL districts are FL-25 (purplish district, but Mario Diaz-Balart is a long-time incumbent who basically drew the district lines as a state legislator to customize the demos for himself), FL-6 (Ron DeSantis' old district) and FL-15 (R+6 district where the incumbent is retiring). Again, these are only flipping if there's a blue wave.

 
Ward lost and it’s really nice to think Arpaio might have played a role in that.

McSally won but apparently appeased the Trumpites in doing so.

Gillum winning is exciting but his nomination is a huge risk considering he is facing DeSantis. DeSantis should lose but Gillum won’t be looking good if he’s implicated in the FBI Tallahassee investigation.

 
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McSally won but apparently appeased the Trumpites in doing so.
McSally was asked if Jeff Flake was a good senator and she refused to comment. 

I used to like McSally- she was the sort of centrist, moderate Republican I could get behind. But now she has gone down to the crossroads and made a deal with Old Scratch. 

 
I like Curbelo a lot.  He’s really good on climate change.
Not to pick on you, but I hear stuff like this a lot and it's a good demonstration of a) how people don't understand the way politics work in this country and b) how screwed up our political system is.

Yes, I think Curbelo has good instincts on climate change. But voting to re-elect him means voting for continued Republican control of Congress, and that is decidedly bad for addressing climate change. Because Curbelo can say whatever he wants to say about the issue; Paul Ryan (or Kevin McCarthy) is never going to allow any bill that addresses it to come to the floor.

What's really screwed up about our system is that, if this year turns into a blue wave, it is moderates like Curbelo who are most likely to lose (well, not Curbelo specifically; he seems like he has a good chance to hang on.) Meanwhile, the ones who will survive are the right-wingers in dark-red districts. As a result, Congress has grown increasingly polarized, and I don't see that trend abating.

 
Not to pick on you, but I hear stuff like this a lot and it's a good demonstration of a) how people don't understand the way politics work in this country and b) how screwed up our political system is.

Yes, I think Curbelo has good instincts on climate change. But voting to re-elect him means voting for continued Republican control of Congress, and that is decidedly bad for addressing climate change. Because Curbelo can say whatever he wants to say about the issue; Paul Ryan (or Kevin McCarthy) is never going to allow any bill that addresses it to come to the floor.

What's really screwed up about our system is that, if this year turns into a blue wave, it is moderates like Curbelo who are most likely to lose (well, not Curbelo specifically; he seems like he has a good chance to hang on.) Meanwhile, the ones who will survive are the right-wingers in dark-red districts. As a result, Congress has grown increasingly polarized, and I don't see that trend abating.
I didn’t say I want him to win.  I said I like him.

 
Not to pick on you, but I hear stuff like this a lot and it's a good demonstration of a) how people don't understand the way politics work in this country and b) how screwed up our political system is.

Yes, I think Curbelo has good instincts on climate change. But voting to re-elect him means voting for continued Republican control of Congress, and that is decidedly bad for addressing climate change. Because Curbelo can say whatever he wants to say about the issue; Paul Ryan (or Kevin McCarthy) is never going to allow any bill that addresses it to come to the floor.

What's really screwed up about our system is that, if this year turns into a blue wave, it is moderates like Curbelo who are most likely to lose (well, not Curbelo specifically; he seems like he has a good chance to hang on.) Meanwhile, the ones who will survive are the right-wingers in dark-red districts. As a result, Congress has grown increasingly polarized, and I don't see that trend abating.
I didn’t say I want him to win.  I said I like him.
I struggle with this.  I understand that voting for a republican is essentially voting for congress to remain republican, but a good conservative who is honorable and serving the needs of his constituents should not be discounted.  We need good people in office, just just Ds or Rs.  If Curbelo is a good man he will stand up against Trump when he needs to.

*Note, I don't know who Curnelo is so this is just a general thought on good people in politics.

 
Close race in CD-6 for the Dems - Anita Malik is leading by a few hundred votes over presumptive favorite Heather Ross. If Malik can hang on, Arizona Dems will have nominated a Latino Veteran for Governor, a Latino woman for Attorney General, a woman for SOS,  two AA women for Corporate Commissioner, and Malik, who is the daughter of Indian Immigrants. Hiral will run again in CD-8 and Sinema is a bisexual non-theist. 

 
Ward lost and it’s really nice to think Arpaio might have played a role in that.

McSally won but apparently appeased the Trumpites in doing so.

Gillum winning is exciting but his nomination is a huge risk considering he is facing DeSantis. DeSantis should lose but Gillum won’t be looking good if he’s implicated in the FBI Tallahassee investigation.
The problem with the current GOP base is Gillum doesn’t have to actually be implicated to be implicated.  He’s that colored fella who was mayor when the FBI was investigating Tallahassee.  Of course he’s guilty.

 
KS-03 update... Sharice Davids is polling within margin of error with Yoder, and GOP PACs are already spending money on anti-Davids ads.  “Davids would be the most liberal Congressperson in Kansas history” “Davids is too progressive for Kansas” is their gloom-and-doom message.

Meanwhile, tonight Davids has a fundraiser meet-and-greet with KS-03 (Leavenworth) native Melissa Ethridge.  And tomorrow night is a big campaign staff meeting where my wife, daughter, and I to hope to find good fits for each of us to plug in and volunteer for the campaign.  

 
The problem with the current GOP base is Gillum doesn’t have to actually be implicated to be implicated.  He’s that colored fella who was mayor when the FBI was investigating Tallahassee.  Of course he’s guilty.
Yes. I was undecided on Gillum until the last minute, and it was the FBI investigation that gave me the most pause. Part of what worried me is that something big could drop in the fall that mortally wounds his campaign, but that's less of a concern than what you describe. It becomes this cloud that hangs over him, and plays into subconscious (or not so subconscious) sentiments about him being a "criminal".

Best thing he could do would be to sit down with the press and stay until he's answered every question they have about it. Obama had a similar issue at the beginning of his presidential campaign -- an association with a shady guy in Chicago where Obama hadn't done anything wrong, but there was a supposed "cloud". But he was completely transparent about it and spent a total of three hours with the two major Chicago papers explaining his actions. The issue faded away.

 
Do you think he said it on purpose?
Hm, no. However I do think the race is hours old yet DeSantis did something so stupid normal people would never do it at work, at a party or wherever, and yet here he is a practiced professional politician on a tv interview.

 
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