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2018 Elections Thread

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Per the radio, apparently Rick Scott has made Trump supporters angry by disagreeing with Trump’s claim that 3,000 people didn’t die in Puerto Rico. 

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6 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Per the radio, apparently Rick Scott has made Trump supporters angry by disagreeing with Trump’s claim that 3,000 people didn’t die in Puerto Rico. 

Trump supporters are the most willfully blind group of people I can even imagine. It's truly incredible to witness.

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Turns out my Congressman was a key vote in diverting that $9.8MM from FEMA disaster relief to ICE for more border-crosser detention centers. Just in time for a hurricane the size of Texas to hit the Atlantic coast. 

I’m really going to enjoy voting against him in November.

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1 hour ago, -fish- said:

He supported Bernie and Hillary in 2016.  Shouldn't they have left then?

The cult was in its infancy then, just learning to walk, talk, and attack. It's all growed up now.

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1 hour ago, timschochet said:
Quote

Ted Cruz’s Texas Senatorial campaign has sent hundreds of thousands of mailers seeking donations that are meant to look like official county summons, a high-ranking campaign official confirmed to Newsweek.

The brown envelopes read “SUMMONS ENCLOSED- OPEN IMMEDIATELY” in large black letters, and have a return address of “official county summons.”

While the letter inside the envelope is a donation form for the Cruz campaign, there is some fear that certain voters may be confused by the mailer and think that they are required by law to pay a fee.

Quote

This is not the first time Cruz has sent misleading mail to voters. In the 2016 presidential primaries, the Cruz campaign sent Iowa voters a letter that read “VOTING VIOLATION,” in red font. Below the warning was an explanation.

“You are receiving this election notice because of low expected voter turnout in your area,” it read. “Your individual voting history as well as your neighbors’ are public record. Their scores are published below, and many of them will see your score as well. CAUCUS ON MONDAY TO IMPROVE YOUR SCORE and please encourage your neighbors to caucus as well. A follow-up notice may be issued following Monday’s caucuses.”

I'd guess 2 out of 3 independent or undecided voters who receive that mailer will vote against Cruz as a result.

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1 minute ago, fatness said:

I'd guess 2 out of 3 independent or undecided voters who receive that mailer will vote against Cruz as a result.

Unfortunately the frightened or ignorant elderly who will react to this kind of "offical" mailer is going to make an impact. This should be ####### illegal. 

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10 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Unfortunately the frightened or ignorant elderly who will react to this kind of "offical" mailer is going to make an impact. This should be ####### illegal. 

That's a solid point. I have to manage my mom's affairs now that she's in a nursing home and unable to do so. She can still vote, though, despite the fact that she's easily scared or fooled. I never talk to her about who to vote for, for that reason --- I'd be manipulating someone who doesn't fully understand, and that's just wrong.

 

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7 hours ago, bananafish said:

On the 538 podcast last week they were talking about how a "generic ballot" lean of Democrat +5-7 would be enough to take the House. It's now at 9.1%.

Need about 11.5 for Senate 

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The GOP in general has been running negative ads about themselves for months (years?) now.

Read a ####ty/misinformed/racist/sexist/_____ quote or tweet from a candidate or government official? Yep, it was a Republican.

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10 hours ago, fatness said:

I'd guess 2 out of 3 independent or undecided voters who receive that mailer will vote against Cruz as a result.

That mailer is like Ted Cruz in a nutshell. His team of data nerds probably ran tests that showed it would boost donations by X%, but nobody stopped and said, "Hey, won't this reinforce the narrative that he's a total a##hole?"

Edited by zftcg
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56 minutes ago, -fish- said:
19 hours ago, fatness said:

The biggest GOP donor in Ohio just quit the party, and is donating to the Democrats.

 

Where'd you get the Ohio part?

I got him confused with this guy. Thanks for catching that.

Quote

 L Brands CEO Les Wexner, the wealthiest Republican supporter in the state, told a small group in Columbus last Thursday that he has quit the GOP. "I'm an independent. I won't support this nonsense in the Republican Party," the billionaire said following a visit by ex-President Barack Obama, according to Suzanne Goldsmith, senior editor of Columbus Monthly. Wexner said President Donald Trump is "behaving poorly," specifically noting Trump's comment that there were "very fine people" among white nationalists who rallied in Charlottesville, Va., last year. 

 

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In a sign that America's two centuries-old democracy is under strain, nearly 2 in 5 American voters do not believe elections are fair, according to a new NPR/Marist poll. Nearly half of respondents lack faith that votes will be counted accurately in the upcoming midterm elections.

https://www.npr.org/2018/09/17/647421039/npr-marist-poll-40-percent-of-americans-think-elections-arent-fair

Quote

Overall, 47 percent of all poll respondents said they think it is either likely or very likely that not all votes will actually be counted in November

 

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Bundy for NV Governor

Quote

 

Instead of paying for ineffective jail sentences, Ryan Bundy proposes to The People of Nevada a more efficient retribution process: “eye-for-an-eye”. If you murder 10 people, you will be murdered 10 times before your freedom is returned to you (we can remove the final resuscitation if the prisoner so chooses). If you rape 3 people, you will be raped 3 times as forced by the Nevada Government and orchestrated by the victims (if they are still alive).

Prison will still be included for all convicted criminals. However, their sentencing is expected to be reduced to a maximum of 5 years. Punishment and rehabilitation into society will be live streamed, available for public consumption.

 

 

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These fall elections seem to have a higher than normal percentage of "Is it real, or is it the Onion?" reports like those in the prior few posts.  We have a race in Wisconsin where one candidate is a white woman, and the other a black male.  The white candidate recently claimed, without any evidence, that her opponent knelt during the national anthem at the opening ceremony for the Wisconsin State Fair. It was so laughably absurd, the opponent didn't really spend any time on it, just denied it and said he wanted to move on to the real issues. Of course right-wing radio rallied around this insane accusation for a couple days, until she withdrew her accusation, admitting it was just something she heard someone say that had no basis in reality.

 

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10 minutes ago, CletiusMaximus said:

These fall elections seem to have a higher than normal percentage of "Is it real, or is it the Onion?" reports like those in the prior few posts.  We have a race in Wisconsin where one candidate is a white woman, and the other a black male.  The white candidate recently claimed, without any evidence, that her opponent knelt during the national anthem at the opening ceremony for the Wisconsin State Fair. It was so laughably absurd, the opponent didn't really spend any time on it, just denied it and said he wanted to move on to the real issues. Of course right-wing radio rallied around this insane accusation for a couple days, until she withdrew her accusation, admitting it was just something she heard someone say that had no basis in reality.

 

Truth isnt truth

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HOT TAKE:

Dems need to spend more time and money locking down Nevada and Arizona (as well as their red state incumbents of course) and less fantasizing about Tennessee and Texas. Nevada in particular is way closer than it should be, and the Dems can't count on the anti-Trump Hispanic turnout that won them the state in 2016 to turn out again.

In case anyone has forgotten, the strategy of assuming that races in which you have a slight edge will break your way and playing offense in states you really really want to win has backfired spectacularly on Dems in the recent past.

Winning the Senate in 2018 would be great, but you don't want to blow your much better chance at winning it in 2020 by overplaying your hand.

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45 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

HOT TAKE:

Dems need to spend more time and money locking down Nevada and Arizona (as well as their red state incumbents of course) and less fantasizing about Tennessee and Texas. Nevada in particular is way closer than it should be, and the Dems can't count on the anti-Trump Hispanic turnout that won them the state in 2016 to turn out again.

In case anyone has forgotten, the strategy of assuming that races in which you have a slight edge will break your way and playing offense in states you really really want to win has backfired spectacularly on Dems in the recent past.

Winning the Senate in 2018 would be great, but you don't want to blow your much better chance at winning it in 2020 by overplaying your hand.

Agreed, 2020 seems worse for republicans than 2018 for democrats.  Play the long game.

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Tennessee is winnable.  Texas will be interesting and close, forcing the GOP to dedicate money there they wouldn't normally have to, but everyone in this thread knows he is a longshot to win there despite future hot takes we will see later.

Texas is sort of like Hillary going around PA trying to win over Republicans to run up the score and failing to secure the important states.

Edited by SacramentoBob

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Something truly weird is going on. 

Polling now indicates that for the first time in over a decade, registered voters over 65 prefer Democrats to Republicans - and for the first time in a lot longer than I can recall (I'm talking decades) they prefer Democrats by double-digit percentage points.

This is a wild change. It's not just one polling system, either.  CNN, WaPo/ABC and Marist are all seeing this.

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Even old white people are getting sick of old white people.

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15 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Something truly weird is going on. 

Polling now indicates that for the first time in over a decade, registered voters over 65 prefer Democrats to Republicans - and for the first time in a lot longer than I can recall (I'm talking decades) they prefer Democrats by double-digit percentage points.

This is a wild change. It's not just one polling system, either.  CNN, WaPo/ABC and Marist are all seeing this.

Baby boomers are getting old and want to bankrupt social security as one more parting shot to screw genx.  Can't do that if the GOP does it first.

Edited by -fish-
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55 minutes ago, Henry Ford said:

Something truly weird is going on. 

Polling now indicates that for the first time in over a decade, registered voters over 65 prefer Democrats to Republicans - and for the first time in a lot longer than I can recall (I'm talking decades) they prefer Democrats by double-digit percentage points.

This is a wild change. It's not just one polling system, either.  CNN, WaPo/ABC and Marist are all seeing this.

I'd hazard a guess that some of that is people not feeling comfortable  stating they prefer Republicans publicly at this time, but they may still be comfortable voting for them.

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1 minute ago, Gr00vus said:

I'd hazard a guess that some of that is people not feeling comfortable  stating they prefer Republicans publicly at this time, but they may still be comfortable voting for them.

There is possibly some of that. But I wonder if some of them believe (rightfully so) that the Rs May actively go after Medicare, SS or other benefits they currently enjoy.

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And here's a thing to consider for those who are looking forward to Democrats controlling the house after the midterms - if they do in fact hold a majority in the house (or senate), they will be scapegoats for every single thing that goes wrong in the U.S. from now until the 2020 elections. They'll have to be extremely sharp and focused on controlling the message as much as possible in the face of an administration who dominates (purposefully or otherwise) the news cycles. Otherwise a "win" in 2018 good very well backfire by 2020.

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On 9/18/2018 at 0:11 PM, TobiasFunke said:

HOT TAKE:

Dems need to spend more time and money locking down Nevada and Arizona (as well as their red state incumbents of course) and less fantasizing about Tennessee and Texas. Nevada in particular is way closer than it should be, and the Dems can't count on the anti-Trump Hispanic turnout that won them the state in 2016 to turn out again.

In case anyone has forgotten, the strategy of assuming that races in which you have a slight edge will break your way and playing offense in states you really really want to win has backfired spectacularly on Dems in the recent past.

Winning the Senate in 2018 would be great, but you don't want to blow your much better chance at winning it in 2020 by overplaying your hand.

Agree with Texas, not with Tennessee. There is no reason why Blackburn can't be defeated. 

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1 hour ago, Jobber said:

Even old white people are getting sick of old white people.

I laughed unreasonably loud when I read this. And I'm an old white person.

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2 minutes ago, Bucky86 said:

This didn't seem to mean much in 2016?

I'm assuming you're implying that the Republican house/senate didn't have to pay for being obstructionist? Like it or not, the two parties just haven't been playing by the same set of rules for a while. The Republicans have been light years ahead of the Democrats in terms of controlling the message and apportioning blame (and making it stick).

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Nate Silver‏ @NateSilver538 6m6 minutes ago

The 4 U.S. Senate races our model has as true tossups right now: Tennessee, North Dakota, Florida, Nevada.

Missouri is very nearly in the toss-up category but just over the line into Lean D. Arizona is Lean D. Texas is Lean R.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header

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6 minutes ago, squistion said:

Nate Silver‏ @NateSilver538 6m6 minutes ago

The 4 U.S. Senate races our model has as true tossups right now: Tennessee, North Dakota, Florida, Nevada.

Missouri is very nearly in the toss-up category but just over the line into Lean D. Arizona is Lean D. Texas is Lean R.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header

I said this a couple days ago too, but if I had any power or influence I would be pointing at Nevada and Arizona and screaming at the top of my lungs for the Dems to invest heavily and lock them down.

The one thing the "blue wave" seems to be lagging on based on the polling, special elections and other stuff I've read is the Hispanic vote. The Dems can't rely on a turnout similar to the anti-Trump Hispanic sentiment in 2016 that won them Nevada and closed the gap considerably in Arizona and Texas. The assumptions people seem to be making about the Southwest in 2018 remind me a lot of the assumptions people made about the Great Lakes in 2016.

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On 9/19/2018 at 3:22 PM, Henry Ford said:

Something truly weird is going on. 

Polling now indicates that for the first time in over a decade, registered voters over 65 prefer Democrats to Republicans - and for the first time in a lot longer than I can recall (I'm talking decades) they prefer Democrats by double-digit percentage points.

This is a wild change. It's not just one polling system, either.  CNN, WaPo/ABC and Marist are all seeing this.

It's Qanon and all of his friends lying to the pollsters.

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38 minutes ago, SacramentoBob said:

It's Qanon and all of his friends lying to the pollsters.

“How old are you?”

73

”Wow, you sound really young.”

....

I take aqua yoga on the weekends. 

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9 hours ago, TobiasFunke said:

I said this a couple days ago too, but if I had any power or influence I would be pointing at Nevada and Arizona and screaming at the top of my lungs for the Dems to invest heavily and lock them down.

Heller just called the Ford allegations a "hiccup", which they'll get over. That's not so good in terms of appealing to voters not riveted to one party.

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10 hours ago, Henry Ford said:

“How old are you?”

73

”Wow, you sound really young.”

....

I take aqua yoga on the weekends. 

:lmao:

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I think these elections are going to get really ugly over the next month and a half. It won’t surprise anyone, but from everything I’m reading Trump is going play the fear card strongly- Democrats winning will bring us MS-13 running amok and sanctuary cities everywhere. 

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5 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I think these elections are going to get really ugly over the next month and a half. It won’t surprise anyone, but from everything I’m reading Trump is going play the fear card strongly- Democrats winning will bring us MS-13 running amok and sanctuary cities everywhere. 

I just want the taco trucks.

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6 minutes ago, timschochet said:

I think these elections are going to get really ugly over the next month and a half. It won’t surprise anyone, but from everything I’m reading Trump is going play the fear card strongly- Democrats winning will bring us MS-13 running amok and sanctuary cities everywhere. 

I find this hard to believe. Donald isn't the type of person who would lie and exploit false fears for personal gain. 

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Alex Roarty‏Verified account @Alex_Roarty

Source: NRCC now cancelling *all* buys in PA-17, appearing to concede that incumbent Republican Keith Rothfus can't defeat Democrat Conor Lamb

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Multiple siblings of Rep. Paul Gosar are coming out in support of his Democratic opponent, accusing the Arizona Republican of racism.

Quote

"It would be difficult to see my brother as anything but a racist," Grace Gosar says in one advertisement. 

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/407832-gop-lawmakers-siblings-endorse-dem-opponent-difficult-to-see-my-brother-as

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