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2018 Elections Thread

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11 minutes ago, zftcg said:

Came here to post about this. This ad is just brutal.

I wonder if Gosar will respond a la Will Ferrell in "The Campaign" and record an ad where he has sex with Brill's wife.

Holy smokes, that’s what 5 siblings? All saying don’t vote for my brother! LMAO

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1 hour ago, zftcg said:

Came here to post about this. This ad is just brutal.

I wonder if Gosar will respond a la Will Ferrell in "The Campaign" and record an ad where he has sex with Brill's wife.

How the hell does anyone vote for him after that?   Who's going to trash him next, his grandma?

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1 hour ago, Jobber said:

Holy smokes, that’s what 5 siblings? All saying don’t vote for my brother! LMAO

Right? If it had just been one, you might have been able to dismiss it. But six? 

I gotta say, I have two brothers, one of whose politics are very different from my own. But if he ever ran for office, I could never in a million years envision recording an ad for his opponent. Because I still respect him even though we disagree.

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The strong economy will keep the blue wave from being to big.  Many people still vote with their pocketbooks.  I want to see the Dems win states like S.D., TX, KS, ND.  The dem governor candidate in S.D. picked a long term GOP as his running mate, what message does that send?

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2 minutes ago, Gopher State said:

The strong economy will keep the blue wave from being to big.  Many people still vote with their pocketbooks.  I want to see the Dems win states like S.D., TX, KS, ND.  The dem governor candidate in S.D. picked a long term GOP as his running mate, what message does that send?

Um, that SD is a conservative state where it's very hard to win as a Democrat? 

As it happens, they actually do have decent shots at winning statewide races in TX /ND (Senate) and KS (governor). But if your only measure of success for the Democrats is if they win in a bunch of deep red states, that would seem to be some serious goalpost moving.

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2 hours ago, zftcg said:

Came here to post about this. This ad is just brutal.

I wonder if Gosar will respond a la Will Ferrell in "The Campaign" and record an ad where he has sex with Brill's wife.

BTW, here's more of the backstory. Despite all that, the brother is expected to cruise in November.

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Finally a candidate we can all support.

9-year-old girl is running for Farragut alderman, wants to bring dinosaurs to parks

Quote

Issue number one — dinosaurs. She believes Farragut needs dinosaurs in its parks. 

"That would probably increase tourism — maybe decrease the population," Bill said. “What kid doesn’t love dinosaurs? I love dinosaurs.”

Because she loves gardening and conservation, she would also like large gardens in these parks. 

 

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17 hours ago, zftcg said:

Came here to post about this. This ad is just brutal.

I wonder if Gosar will respond a la Will Ferrell in "The Campaign" and record an ad where he has sex with Brill's wife.

wow.

he’ll still win by double digits

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20 hours ago, The Indestructible said:

Alex Roarty‏Verified account @Alex_Roarty

Source: NRCC now cancelling *all* buys in PA-17, appearing to concede that incumbent Republican Keith Rothfus can't defeat Democrat Conor Lamb

It's a trap! 

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58 minutes ago, Sheriff Bart said:

JFC these guys.  :(

Standard gop

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16 hours ago, Gopher State said:

The strong economy will keep the blue wave from being to big.  Many people still vote with their pocketbooks.  I want to see the Dems win states like S.D., TX, KS, ND.  The dem governor candidate in S.D. picked a long term GOP as his running mate, what message does that send?

This contradicts itself as the number of people that haven't seen a big increase in their wealth compared to those that have is probably at least 10,000 to 1.

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16 minutes ago, Sheriff Bart said:

This contradicts itself as the number of people that haven't seen a big increase in their wealth compared to those that have is probably at least 10,000 to 1.

At least the $$ was directly to those who need it most.

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Maine Governor Paul LePage criticised for 'racist' remarks

Governor LePage held up mugshots he said showed that most men arrested in Maine on drug charges were black

The governor of Maine has said that people of colour were enemies of his state, and appeared to suggest they should be shot.

 

BBC News

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24 minutes ago, No One said:

Maine Governor Paul LePage criticised for 'racist' remarks

Governor LePage held up mugshots he said showed that most men arrested in Maine on drug charges were black

The governor of Maine has said that people of colour were enemies of his state, and appeared to suggest they should be shot.

 

BBC News

Yeah. He needs to resign and live in a cabin far away from the rest of us.

Edited by JIslander

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22 minutes ago, No One said:

Maine Governor Paul LePage criticised for 'racist' remarks

Governor LePage held up mugshots he said showed that most men arrested in Maine on drug charges were black

The governor of Maine has said that people of colour were enemies of his state, and appeared to suggest they should be shot.

 

BBC News

Dear God. From the article:

Mr LePage made the comments while seeking to clarify remarks he made earlier in the week which were criticised as racist.

Mr LePage was asked about a statement he made in January, in which he blamed the state's heroin problem on "guys by the name D-Money, Smoothie, Shifty" who "come from Connecticut and New York".

"They come up here, they sell their heroin, then they go back home. Incidentally, half the time they impregnate a young, white girl before they leave," he said.

Speaking on Wednesday, he denied it was racist, but said that since January he had been putting together a binder cataloguing drug arrests in the state, and that "90-plus per cent of those pictures in my book, and it's a three-ringed binder, are black and Hispanic people".

Asked by reporters to provide the binder, Mr LePage replied: "Let me tell you something: Black people come up the highway and they kill Mainers. You ought to look into that."

He then stormed off, telling the reporters: "You make me so sick."

 

And it gets worse. That's a doozy of an article. Today's GOP!

Edited by Hilts
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2 hours ago, Hilts said:

Dear God. From the article:

Mr LePage made the comments while seeking to clarify remarks he made earlier in the week which were criticised as racist.

Mr LePage was asked about a statement he made in January, in which he blamed the state's heroin problem on "guys by the name D-Money, Smoothie, Shifty" who "come from Connecticut and New York".

"They come up here, they sell their heroin, then they go back home. Incidentally, half the time they impregnate a young, white girl before they leave," he said.

Speaking on Wednesday, he denied it was racist, but said that since January he had been putting together a binder cataloguing drug arrests in the state, and that "90-plus per cent of those pictures in my book, and it's a three-ringed binder, are black and Hispanic people".

Asked by reporters to provide the binder, Mr LePage replied: "Let me tell you something: Black people come up the highway and they kill Mainers. You ought to look into that."

He then stormed off, telling the reporters: "You make me so sick."

 

And it gets worse. That's a doozy of an article. Today's GOP!

Yeah, that’s two years old.  People voted for the Trump ticket anyway. 

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2 hours ago, Sheriff Bart said:

Check out my 401k bro. 

Had a co-worker this week claim his 401K is going wild and he made nothing during the Obama years. It was difficult explaining that would have been nearly impossible. Guess they're gonna believe what they want.

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31 minutes ago, ffldrew said:

Had a co-worker this week claim his 401K is going wild and he made nothing during the Obama years. It was difficult explaining that would have been nearly impossible. Guess they're gonna believe what they want.

Maybe he only staying putting money into his 401k in 2017? That's the only way to explain it logically.

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13 hours ago, Hilts said:

Dear God. From the article:

Mr LePage made the comments while seeking to clarify remarks he made earlier in the week which were criticised as racist.

Mr LePage was asked about a statement he made in January, in which he blamed the state's heroin problem on "guys by the name D-Money, Smoothie, Shifty" who "come from Connecticut and New York".

"They come up here, they sell their heroin, then they go back home. Incidentally, half the time they impregnate a young, white girl before they leave," he said.

Speaking on Wednesday, he denied it was racist, but said that since January he had been putting together a binder cataloguing drug arrests in the state, and that "90-plus per cent of those pictures in my book, and it's a three-ringed binder, are black and Hispanic people".

From the same article

Quote

The Portland Press Herald published FBI statistics which show that 1,211 people were arrested on charges of drug sales or manufacturing in Maine in 2014. Of those, 170 - 14.1% - were black, and almost all the rest were white.

Quote

Rights group the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) said it had filed a freedom of information request for records related to the arrests of black and Hispanic people in the state.

Its executive director, Alison Beyea, said Maine police were nine times more likely to arrest people of colour for selling drugs than white people, even though white people were just as likely to commit drug offences.

 

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22 hours ago, No One said:

At least the $$ was directly to those who need it most.

I'm sleeping better at night. Probably because I have a mattress stuffed with Benjamin's. 

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10 minutes ago, Sheriff Bart said:

I'm sleeping better at night. Probably because I have a mattress stuffed with Benjamin's. 

I couldn't find your address to send an xmas card. Please PM

Edited by No One
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23 hours ago, ffldrew said:

Had a co-worker this week claim his 401K is going wild and he made nothing during the Obama years. It was difficult explaining that would have been nearly impossible. Guess they're gonna believe what they want.

My 401K tanked during the dotcom crash.  Where was Obama then??? Probably playing golf.

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Absentee voting starts today in my state (Wisconsin).  I typically vote early at City Hall, which is across the street from my office.  I had planned to vote sometime this week, but am now somewhat concerned that one of the candidates I support will have a #metoo accusation between now and Nov. 6th.

 

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14 hours ago, joffer said:

Something seems to be brewing in the midwest, of all places. Dems are apparently gonna come out of the midterms with at least a 2/2 split and maybe 3/1 in Iowa's four districts, with the fourth one being Steve King so who knows if he's even safe.  Current split is 3/1 in favor of GOP. And they could very easily get to 2/2 with an outside shot at 3/1 in Kansas of all places, which is currently 4/0 GOP. One of Nebraska's three GOP districts is close, too.

IF the Dems win the House, it would be particularly nice if it wasn't done entirely by college-educated suburban moms in coastal states.

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1 hour ago, TobiasFunke said:

Something seems to be brewing in the midwest, of all places. Dems are apparently gonna come out of the midterms with at least a 2/2 split and maybe 3/1 in Iowa's four districts, with the fourth one being Steve King so who knows if he's even safe.  Current split is 3/1 in favor of GOP. And they could very easily get to 2/2 with an outside shot at 3/1 in Kansas of all places, which is currently 4/0 GOP. One of Nebraska's three GOP districts is close, too.

IF the Dems win the House, it would be particularly nice if it wasn't done entirely by college-educated suburban moms in coastal states.

That is really encouraging news.

I’m trying not to look at the scoreboard here in KS-03, but I think I mentioned earlier so many people volunteered for the Sharice Davids campaign we opened a second office last weekend in the different part of the district.  We know Davids will carry the less-wealthy pockets, just a matter to getting them to turn out.  Big voter education effort going out on how to vote early and when you can do it.  The encouraging thing is the demand for the second field office is from volunteers working where the local wealth is in the area.  

Yoder will outspend on TV and has some PAC support from the gun lobby and the payday loan industry lobby.  But the Davids ground game has picked up a lot of door-knockers from the Welder campaign (Davids’s main opponent in the primary) and there’s messaging out to get the Welder supporters to turn out and vote for Davids instead of staying home.

The other piece that seems to be helping is the governor’s race will be competitive, and there’s this long line of Bob Dole Republicans turning their backs on Kobach and endorsing the Democrat, Laura Kelly.  Incentive to keep Kobach out of the governor’s office, and knowing there’s a real chance to do it, will help turnout in my district, in KS-02 (Lawrence and eastern KS), and maybe KS-04 (Wichita and south KS, the Koch brothers home field). 

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Meanwhile in KS-04, James Thompson (a Bernie Bro) got an endorsement from Ben & Jerry and are having an ice-cream-flavor-naming contest for seven Congressional candidates they’ve endorsed, including Thompson.  That’s pretty cool.

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On 9/23/2018 at 0:48 PM, The Z Machine said:

Maybe he only staying putting money into his 401k in 2017? That's the only way to explain it logically.

My guess is he listened to Hannity and Alex Jones tout Gold prices during the Obama administration and bought Kugerands.

 

ETA: Even gold went from 855 or so an ounce to around 1,100 when Trump took office.

Edited by ffldrew

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7 minutes ago, James Daulton said:

Is it really possible that Trump's and the Republicans constant dismissing of women will put the Senate in play?

Seems like it.  I'm far more skeptical than most, but I think one of the election experts mentioned that incumbents on either side losing their seats during election cycles favorable to their party are incredibly rare- I wanna say something like 54 for the last 54? Here's a 538 article saying they're undefeated in the 5 "wave elections" since 1994. I don't put too much stock in that since Trumpism has totally re-aligned politics since six years ago, but it's at least worth mentioning.

And if the incumbent Dems can somehow pull off a clean sweep you have to think the Dems will take the Senate. They'd need 2 of the 4 GOP Senate seats in play, and recent polls have given them a small but steady lead in one of them.

If they lose even one incumbent, however, it gets a lot messier.  If they lose more than one it's over.

 

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Marsha Blackburn’s ad against Bredesen is so bad. He supports Obamacare, he opposes the Wall and Trumps tax cuts and gave crooked Hilary tons of money I just can’t support that” As if any of them would have anyway.

Not as bad as the one where she falsy claI med how much the state spent in the governors mansion for him to live in (he didn’t live in it and renovations were done for the future...and he also held several fundraisers to pay for some of it)

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8 hours ago, TobiasFunke said:

Something seems to be brewing in the midwest, of all places. Dems are apparently gonna come out of the midterms with at least a 2/2 split and maybe 3/1 in Iowa's four districts, with the fourth one being Steve King so who knows if he's even safe.  Current split is 3/1 in favor of GOP. And they could very easily get to 2/2 with an outside shot at 3/1 in Kansas of all places, which is currently 4/0 GOP. One of Nebraska's three GOP districts is close, too.

IF the Dems win the House, it would be particularly nice if it wasn't done entirely by college-educated suburban moms in coastal states.

His stupid tariffs and trade war are taking their toll.  If he doesn’t figure out a way to back out of it really soon, he’s going to lose a bunch of these Midwestern seats for the Republicans.

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7 hours ago, ffldrew said:

 

 

ETA: Even gold went from 855 or so an ounce to around 1,100 when Trump took office.

no

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2 hours ago, Sammy3469 said:

His stupid tariffs and trade war are taking their toll.  If he doesn’t figure out a way to back out of it really soon, he’s going to lose a bunch of these Midwestern seats for the Republicans.

Never underestimate the willingness of middle and lower class white Americans to vote against their economic interests.  

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Quote

Representative Scott Taylor, Republican of Virginia, has enjoyed a rapid political rise anchored in his valorous background as a member of the Navy SEALs, a credential with great resonance in a district that includes the world’s largest naval station and one of the highest concentrations of voters connected to the military. Fit, square-jawed and telegenic, he was expected to have a relatively easy time winning re-election in November.

But now he is threatened with a sudden fall: His campaign is facing accusations that it was part of an improper effort to help an independent candidate get on the ballot and siphon voters from his Democratic challenger. The allegations, which included using the names of dead people or voters who did not live in the district on signature petitions, were serious enough to warrant the appointment of a special prosecutor, and the independent candidate, Shaun Brown, was stricken from the ballot by the Virginia Supreme Court.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/23/us/politics/scott-taylor-virginia-house-scandal.html

oops

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I hope this isn't the kiss of death, but for the first time I'm genuinely optimistic about the House changing hands. Based on the district-by-district polls that the Times and some others are doing, along with the ratings of individual races from the analyst types, it seems like the Dems are way more than halfway to 23 already. And they have about 20 coin flip races and a bunch more races where they could potentially pull an upset out there to get them the other 10 or so they need.

Also important is that we're five weeks away from the elections and there's very little movement in any of the broader polling. Generic margin is steady at 8-9%, Trump disapproval is stead at 53-55%, etc. And early voting is already starting.

I assume some awful thing like new Russian troll farms spreading bizarre lies about candidates or the GOP coming up with a crazy new strain of bigotry to push will appear soon to temper my optimism.

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4 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

I hope this isn't the kiss of death, but for the first time I'm genuinely optimistic about the House changing hands. Based on the district-by-district polls that the Times and some others are doing, along with the ratings of individual races from the analyst types, it seems like the Dems are way more than halfway to 23 already. And they have about 20 coin flip races and a bunch more races where they could potentially pull an upset out there to get them the other 10 or so they need.

Also important is that we're five weeks away from the elections and there's very little movement in any of the broader polling. Generic margin is steady at 8-9%, Trump disapproval is stead at 53-55%, etc. And early voting is already starting.

I assume some awful thing like new Russian troll farms spreading bizarre lies about candidates or the GOP coming up with a crazy new strain of bigotry to push will appear soon to temper my optimism.

This all sounds great, but flapgreen posted last night that he and his friends are all really upset and that the Democrats are going to be wiped out in November. 

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17 minutes ago, timschochet said:

This all sounds great, but flapgreen posted last night that he and his friends are all really upset and that the Democrats are going to be wiped out in November. 

When one of the great analytical minds of this board weighs in with insight like that, I tend to straighten up and pay close attention.

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26 minutes ago, dawgtrails said:

Did trump take office in January of 2009?

Obama did - from Jan 2009 to Jan 2017 - looks like gold went from 855 to 1100. So my point was that even the crazy gold people made some money during the Obama term. My co-worker was arguing that his 401K bombed during the Obama years and that it was going wild in Trump years. 

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