dawgtrails
Footballguy
Ahh - I misread. Thought you were saying gold took off when trump took office. Apologies
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2018 Elections Thread (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter squistion
- Start date
ffldrew
Footballguy
No One
Footballguy
timschochet
Footballguy
Bill Nelson now ahead in two latest polls, one by 7 points.
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
Osaurus
Footballguy
Seems way high imo. I think it’s going to be close and Lord Voldemort is getting his seat.
Jobber
Footballguy
The GOP ****ting on minorities and women from the highest mountain for two straight years is having a real effect. And dragging the Kavenaugh appointment on and on in the face of mounting evidence will hurt even more.
Being a graying middle-age white guy who wears New Balance shoes because my feet hurt, I feel I should buy some Donkey shirts or Klobuchar hats or something so I’m not mistaken for a Trumpite.
Being a graying middle-age white guy who wears New Balance shoes because my feet hurt, I feel I should buy some Donkey shirts or Klobuchar hats or something so I’m not mistaken for a Trumpite.
I agree that seems high, although the fact that Gillum has consistently run ahead of DeSantis in every poll since the primaries is a very good sign for Nelson. I really think this race could end up deciding the Senate.
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I generally shy away from thinking that politicians should be looking to take advantage of every situation to maximize political gain. All else being equal, I'd prefer they do the right thing substantively.
But given that I don't see two GOP Senators changing their minds on Kavanaugh, I'm starting to believe that the best thing Dems could do is use the hearings to highlight the GOP's completely offensive, cynical treatment of Blasey Ford, Ramirez and women in general in order to motivate suburban moms to turn out in November.
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
Meanwhile, in KS-02 (Topeka, Lawrence, east Kansas)
GOP candidate Watkins told voters he owned a company he built from scratch. He didn’t.
Congressional candidate Steve Watkins inflated his role as a defense contractor in the Middle East by telling voters he owned a company he built from scratch.
He didn’t.
“I got out of the military, started a small business and grew it from three people to 470 people. So I know what it’s like to have to sweat it and work to make payroll, to not take any salary so you can make ends meet,” the Kansas Republican told a Miami County GOP 2nd District Candidate Forum in March.
In June, at a Neosho County GOP meeting, Watkins repeated a similar story: “I started an engineering and security company. It was a paramilitary company that did work strictly for the U.S. government. This was in Iraq and Afghanistan. We grew to a number of countries. We grew from three people to 470 with me as the principal during that growth period.”
And on Twitter a month later, Watkins wrote that he “owned an engineering and securities company” when he was in the Middle East. “I grew that outfit from three people to 450 people. There were times when I did not take pay to make sure my employees could make ends meet.”
That company, Watkins’ campaign told The Star, was VIAP Inc. — a wholly owned subsidiary of Versar Inc., a global project management firm based in the Washington, D.C., area.
But records and interviews with company officials show that company existed years before he was hired on as a consultant, a Kansas City Star investigation has found. And Versar’s chief executive officer at the time gives credit for building VIAP to another person.
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Watkins's opponent is Democrat Paul Davis. I'll be making a token donation to the Davis campaign over this.
GOP candidate Watkins told voters he owned a company he built from scratch. He didn’t.
Congressional candidate Steve Watkins inflated his role as a defense contractor in the Middle East by telling voters he owned a company he built from scratch.
He didn’t.
“I got out of the military, started a small business and grew it from three people to 470 people. So I know what it’s like to have to sweat it and work to make payroll, to not take any salary so you can make ends meet,” the Kansas Republican told a Miami County GOP 2nd District Candidate Forum in March.
In June, at a Neosho County GOP meeting, Watkins repeated a similar story: “I started an engineering and security company. It was a paramilitary company that did work strictly for the U.S. government. This was in Iraq and Afghanistan. We grew to a number of countries. We grew from three people to 470 with me as the principal during that growth period.”
And on Twitter a month later, Watkins wrote that he “owned an engineering and securities company” when he was in the Middle East. “I grew that outfit from three people to 450 people. There were times when I did not take pay to make sure my employees could make ends meet.”
That company, Watkins’ campaign told The Star, was VIAP Inc. — a wholly owned subsidiary of Versar Inc., a global project management firm based in the Washington, D.C., area.
But records and interviews with company officials show that company existed years before he was hired on as a consultant, a Kansas City Star investigation has found. And Versar’s chief executive officer at the time gives credit for building VIAP to another person.
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Watkins's opponent is Democrat Paul Davis. I'll be making a token donation to the Davis campaign over this.
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massraider
Footballguy
Ha! Yeah, I'll help out too.
I've actually worked with Versar on a number of projects.
timschochet
Footballguy
538 forecasts out today. Make of them what you will but Nate Silver been fairly accurate over the last decade, including giving Donald Trump a much higher chance of winning in 2016 than other sources. Anyhow:
Democrats’ chance of flipping the Senate: 1 in 3.
Democrats’ chance of flipping the House: 4 in 5.
This seems reasonable to me. Even with a blue wave, too many things have to happen for the Dems to succeed in the Senate. Still, 33% are reasonable odds.
Democrats’ chance of flipping the Senate: 1 in 3.
Democrats’ chance of flipping the House: 4 in 5.
This seems reasonable to me. Even with a blue wave, too many things have to happen for the Dems to succeed in the Senate. Still, 33% are reasonable odds.
toshiba
Footballguy
There really hasn't been much of a change over the past month in their forecasts, just a couple percent change here and there.
fatness
Footballguy
Threats on black Vermont lawmaker were so 'dangerous,' she dropped re-election bid. Now she has resigned.
This is Bernie Sanders's home.
Good article
This is Bernie Sanders's home.
SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
Jobber
Footballguy
MN Angie Craig looks to be leading US House incumbent Republican Jason Lewis in my district.
New Poll
A new round of polling in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, a battleground in the fight for control of the U.S. House of Representatives in these midterms, shows what most observers of the race already knew: Rep. Jason Lewis is facing a very strong challenge from DFL candidate Angie Craig in what has long been considered a “toss-up” race.
But this week’s poll from the New York Times and Siena College — a live survey that was still under way on Tuesday — suggests this race may no longer be a toss-up: With responses from more than 400 voters in CD2, the poll found Craig with a 14-point advantage over Lewis, 52 percent to 38 percent. Ten percent of voters were undecided.
New Poll
A new round of polling in Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District, a battleground in the fight for control of the U.S. House of Representatives in these midterms, shows what most observers of the race already knew: Rep. Jason Lewis is facing a very strong challenge from DFL candidate Angie Craig in what has long been considered a “toss-up” race.
But this week’s poll from the New York Times and Siena College — a live survey that was still under way on Tuesday — suggests this race may no longer be a toss-up: With responses from more than 400 voters in CD2, the poll found Craig with a 14-point advantage over Lewis, 52 percent to 38 percent. Ten percent of voters were undecided.
dawgtrails
Footballguy
ren hoek
Footballguy
https://twitter.com/mtracey/status/1046782141575643137
Control of the Senate could hinge on @CoryBooker and the NJ Democratic machine’s insistence on clearing the field for one of the most obviously corrupt politicians in the United States
Control of the Senate could hinge on @CoryBooker and the NJ Democratic machine’s insistence on clearing the field for one of the most obviously corrupt politicians in the United States
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
They were stupid to run Menendez and deserve to be criticized for it. But there is zero chance that control of the Senate will come down to the NJ Senate race.
First, there's very little chance he'll lose. He's up an average of 6.8 points in the polls and 538 has his chances of reelection at 92.8%.
Second, if he does lose that would almost certainly mean that the polls overestimated the Dems more broadly, so there's basically no chance of the split being 50/49 Dems pending a NJ result.
Also describing it as if it was somehow Booker's call is dumb. I googled it and I didn't see any articles suggesting that it was Booker's call. The most I saw was one citing him as one of many "Democratic power brokers" who discouraged a primary challenge.
Opposing corruption and cronyism is a good thing. People who do it shouldn't muddy their message with weird shots at politicians they don't like, or with doom and gloom declarations about things that aren't gonna happen.
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Yeah, I grew up there, and NJ politics was hopelessly corrupt before Booker got there and will continue to be long after he's gone. Worst part is, you'd think there'd be some incentive for a young reformer to directly take on the power brokers. But it never works out that way. Christie pretended he was doing that, but he really was just taking on one political machine for the benefit of a rival one. Booker was that young reformer 15 years ago when he ran against Sharpe James, but he eventually made his piece with the system. He's basically Tommy Carcetti from "The Wire".
All that said, I agree that Menendez will probably win (if I still lived in NJ, I'd reluctantly vote for him). And I hope to God Dems are able to ease him out in advance of 2024.
timschochet
Footballguy
The Kavanaugh situation is energizing Republicans. Suddenly Heitkamp is 10 points behind. Manchin is behind as well. The Florida governor’s race is tied.
Suburban women remain upset at Republicans but fheir influence may have already been factored in as they were already motivated. What Kavanaufh has done is gotten the other side (conservatives) motivated. If this continues the blue wave is in real jeopardy.
Suburban women remain upset at Republicans but fheir influence may have already been factored in as they were already motivated. What Kavanaufh has done is gotten the other side (conservatives) motivated. If this continues the blue wave is in real jeopardy.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Tim you generally give good info, but you have this weird blind spot where you do a chicken little routine on any and all polling. I understand why you might have those tendencies after 2016, but it's silly. Every new poll that comes out isn't a new fundamental truth. They're all data points. Manchin isn't behind- the same poll you're relying on that had Heitkamp down ten had him winning by 8, and I haven't seen a single poll showing him behind. And the polling shows a very narrow but consistent lead for Gillum as well.
A few weeks ago the polls looked incredibly rosy in the wake of the dual Cohen/Manafort convictions (I know it feels like ages ago but it was just five weeks and the polls incorporating that were just a month ago). As that's fade into the distance the generic approval and other GOP numbers have recovered slightly. There will be many more bumps along the way for the next five weeks, including inevitably many bad polls for both sides. No need to run around talking about the sky falling every time a negative one for the Dems comes out.
Henry Ford
Footballguy
toshiba
Footballguy
But that was the big play on all the cable news outlets this morning so it is easy for people to get convinced.
Jobber
Footballguy
ren hoek
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Bravo to you for following up yesterday's "actually it's about ethics in gaming journalism" with a "Bernie would've won." You should do a whole theme week based on mid-decade internet memes. Work in some Left Shark, some crying Jordan, maybe a bit of Harambe ...
ren hoek
Footballguy
People aren’t going to turn out to vote for garbage. That’s the problem with nonvoter shaming. If people would stop apologizing for a rigged system that nominates literal trash heaps that lose to Trump, because it’s supposedly less bad than Trump, perhaps they could.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Say what you will about Hillary, but she's definitely better at absorbing harmless jokes than you are.
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ren hoek
Footballguy
Booker testified on Menendez's behalf at his corruption trial. Here’s Menendez tearfully thanking Booker for backing him since Day One.
You're probably correct that he will win anyway. Being staggeringly corrupt didn't stop Cuomo from being backed by top party brass and winning re-election in a landslide $25M advantage, and it certainly won't stop Menendez either.
ren hoek
Footballguy
squistion
Footballguy
But they would have been outnumbered by those who were never vote for avowed Socialist.
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Quinnipiac: A Lift From Women Gives Menendez 11-Point Lead in New Jersey, Poll Finds; Voters Oppose #BrettKavanaugh Confirmation by Wide Margin
link
This is no more or less meaningful than the poll showing him with a two-point lead or recent suggestions that the Kavanaugh debate would harm Dems in the midterm. It's just another data point. Just showing that you can create whatever narrative you want if you only look at some of the data.
link
This is no more or less meaningful than the poll showing him with a two-point lead or recent suggestions that the Kavanaugh debate would harm Dems in the midterm. It's just another data point. Just showing that you can create whatever narrative you want if you only look at some of the data.
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ren hoek
Footballguy
I dunno squistion man. Looking at the Amazon wage hikes and Dems embracing 'Medicare For All,' and, well, Trump, it's pretty clear which way the wind was blowing in 2016.
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TobiasFunke
Footballguy
And here's a poll showing Manchin leading by 12.
I guess the second lesson here, in addition to "use aggregate data instead of cherry-picking," is "stop watching cable news."
Jackstraw
Footballguy
Bruce I'm in KS district 4 south of Wichita. I want to make a donation that makes a difference but wonder how best to spend it as a lonely democrat in KS. I'm not confident at all in Thompson beating Estes. Any thoughts? KS governor race? DNC? Beto? Gillam in Florida? Sharice Davids in KS 3?
Bruce Dickinson
Footballguy
KS Governor Race. Laura Kelly has all the endorsements from across the spectrum but the campaign doesn’t have deep pockets. And it’s money betting against Kris Kobach. That race is gonna be real close and you won’t regret contributing to her and against Kobach.
Love your spirit for Sharice Davids. She’s a magnet attracting volunteers and donations, Wyandotte and Miami County people picking up phones and knocking on doors, Johnson County people writing checks to pay for ads and support systems. Keep spreading the good word about Sharice Davids, encourage your friends in KS-03 to vote, but the Kelly campaign needs your money more than the Davids campaign does.
ETA: to acknowledge how highly I think of your character for asking a question like this.
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tuffnutt
Footballguy
I've given sizable donations ( for a school teacher anyway) to both Davis and Kelly.
Jackstraw
Footballguy
OK gonna peel of a check. Kobach would make Brownback look like a piker.
massraider
Footballguy
-fish-
Footballguy
Lindsey Graham also testified on Menendez' behalf at the same trial. Shouldn't Graham be getting vilified by this same source?
ren hoek
Footballguy
This sort of stuff is the reason they lost to Trump. Running the country into the ground, flipping the bird at the working class and pretending it didn't pave the road straight to Trump. If they're corrupt sleazeballs just like the GOP, we can go ahead and stop pretending Dems represent some sort of revival of democratic values. It's the same thing over and over again. There's gonna be a lot more Trumps.
