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2018 Elections Thread

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25 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

This last part plays into your second point, which I don't want to get into any further right now because I'm hoping to put off that entire discussion as long as is humanly possible.  Like maybe a month or two ;)

 

Actually one thing about 2020 that is apparent last night: the Dems need to look hard at Amy Klobuchar and Sherrod Brown. They may seem boring to outsiders but everyone who gets to know them (ie their constituents) loves them, and they can probably help deliver the Great Lakes states back to the Dems.

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1 minute ago, mrip541 said:

Looks like FL, GA and IA took this opportunity to confirm they're still the worst and ran with it.

I think Iowa had some positive results on the whole, it’s one District that owns King.

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2 minutes ago, mrip541 said:

Looks like FL, GA and IA took this opportunity to confirm they're still the worst and ran with it.

Western Iowa.  They might as well be part of Nebraska.  The Eastern part of Iowa gets it.

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3 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Western Iowa.  They might as well be part of Nebraska.  The Eastern part of Iowa gets it.

Quad Cities district stayed blue, Cedar Rapids district flipped red to blue, Des Moines district flipped red to blue, Sioux City district (King) was the only one that stayed red but MOV shrank a ton: 61-38 in 2016, 50-47 in 2018.

This did not get enough attention last night.

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2 minutes ago, Bruce Dickinson said:

Quad Cities district stayed blue, Cedar Rapids district flipped red to blue, Des Moines district flipped red to blue, Sioux City district (King) was the only one that stayed red but MOV shrank a ton: 61-38 in 2016, 50-47 in 2018.

This did not get enough attention last night.

I hereby retract my claim that IA is still the worst. The King thing is just kind of wild.

Edited by mrip541
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6 minutes ago, JIslander said:

Lol  -never got that question before.  Yes, Islander, but Jizz Lander ...ha! ?

Maybe you can hang out with freeballgel

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44 minutes ago, Snotbubbles said:

Why wouldn't you be ok with it?  Did you ever hear of the "Great Compromise"?  The Senate protects individual States and gives them equal voice one part of the government.  Without it, we probably don't have a Constitution or the United States.  The House is set up for those populous portions of the US.  It's a brilliant system.   

They are getting pretty expensive to subsidize. Not even being funny here. Far more expensive to service than compact populations and they don't want to pay the price in taxes for the privilige. Not to mention a few hundred thousand people in one of the Dakotas essentialy have the power to overule the policy needs of tens of millions in more populous states. 

It's not very fair basically and becoming increasingly moreso.  

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13 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

Actually one thing about 2020 that is apparent last night: the Dems need to look hard at Amy Klobuchar and Sherrod Brown. They may seem boring to outsiders but everyone who gets to know them (ie their constituents) loves them, and they can probably help deliver the Great Lakes states back to the Dems.

I like me some Gillibrand. Fighter. 

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9 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:
12 minutes ago, mrip541 said:

Looks like FL, GA and IA took this opportunity to confirm they're still the worst and ran with it.

Western Iowa.  They might as well be part of Nebraska.  The Eastern part of Iowa gets it.

there is a big blue area there from madison over to the mississippi up to the twin cities looks like it is spreading along the big muddy a little bit eh take that to the bank brohans 

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1 minute ago, mrip541 said:

I hereby retract my claim that IA is still the worst. 

Georgia deserves a little love, too IMO. They almost elected a black woman as governor despite massive voter suppression.  They quietly flipped that suburban Atlanta district that everyone got all in a tizzy about in a special election last year (GA-06, where Handel beat Ossoff ... Handel lost to an African-American gun control advocate last night).  This is a state that went for the GOP candidate by 5-10 points in every recent presidential election, including when Obama was winning handily. A state that flew the stars and bars in public spaces this century. They're moving in the right direction.

Florida remains the worst.

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7 minutes ago, mrip541 said:

I hereby retract my claim that IA is still the worst. The King thing is just kind of wild.

If you look at the demographics you'll see it was largely due to older, white voters with little education.  Not surprising.

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Nate McMurray has requested a recount in NY-27, as the results are within 1%.  Interestingly enough, the pro-Trump candidate from the Reform Party garnered 2.1% of the vote, the people who couldn't stand to vote for Chris Collins.  May actually make an impact here, though I doubt it.

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1 hour ago, TobiasFunke said:

I'm super-happy for progressives and other left-leaning types in deep red midwestern areas who work hard for stuff that has to seem virtually impossible at times, particularly people like @Bruce Dickinson in Kansas and the people in Oklahoma City and eastern South Carolina and in those previously deep red Atlanta and Texas suburbs who pulled upsets last night. It's a lot easier to do this stuff when your whole community is behind it and you've seen it pay off before. What you all did is way more impressive and important :clap::tebow::hifive:

53% to 44%.  Sharice didn’t just win; she got that empty suit to tap out.  

I can tell you the exact moment I realized Davids was going to win.  It was on September 17 when notice of the second field office opening went out.  The enthusiasm for the campaign was so large a second office was secured in the southern part of the district.  I was too superstitious to say it out, but I knew at that moment this was going to be a win.

I didn’t expect such a large margin of victory.  And wow, the role that huge win had in Laura Kelly beating Kris Kobach - the last weekend was lot of Davids and Kelly canvassers joining forces to knock on doors together and such - sure is satisfying.

The kid told me we put a superhero origin story in Congress and a real-life Leslie Knope in the governor’s mansion.  She right: Davids is a Native American MMA fighter with an Ivy League law degree, and Kelly is a lifelong policy wonk who rose to prominence in state government because of how well she ran the state Parks And Recreation department.  I’m tearing up again typing it out. 

Edited by Bruce Dickinson
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30 minutes ago, SWC said:

i have a question can the house now actually investigate devin nunes and what he gave to the white house and will that happen inquiring swcs would like to know take that to the bank bromigos 

The Congressman you will want to start following more closely is a distinguished gentleman named Elijah Cummings.  He is expected to be the new chair of the House Oversight Committee and he is not to be trifled with.  

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6 minutes ago, Bruce Dickinson said:

53% to 44%.  Sharice didn’t just win; she got that empty suit to tap out.  

I can tell you the exact moment I realized Davids was going to win.  It was on September 17 when notice of the second field office opening went out.  The enthusiasm for the campaign was so large a second office was secured in the southern part of the district.  I was too superstitious to say it out, but I knew at that moment this was going to be a win.

I didn’t expect such a large margin of victory.  And wow, the role that huge win had in Laura Kelly beating Kris Kobach - the last weekend was lot of Davids and Kelly canvassers joining forces to knock on doors together and such - sure is satisfying.

The kid told me we put a superhero origin story in Congress and a real-life Leslie Knope in the governor’s mansion.  She right: Davids is a Native American trained MMA fighter with an Ivy League law degree, and Kelly is a lifelong policy wonk who rose to prominence in state government because of how well she ran the state Parks And Recreation department.  I’m tearing up again typing it out. 

Awesome stuff

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1 minute ago, Bruce Dickinson said:

The Congressman you will want to start following more closely is a distinguished gentleman named Elijah Cummings.  He is expected to be the new chair of the House Oversight Committee and he is not to be trifled with.  

:goodposting:

Any focus on Pelosi is misguided. She's an expert vote-herder and will basically function as a Speaker Emeritus for a new generation of Dems who are learning the ropes. In fact it wouldn't surprise me at all if she come out and says the 116th is her last Congress some time in the next six months.  Cummings and Schiff are the guys who are about to make life hell for the corrupt Trump Administration.

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Just now, Bruce Dickinson said:
33 minutes ago, SWC said:

i have a question can the house now actually investigate devin nunes and what he gave to the white house and will that happen inquiring swcs would like to know take that to the bank bromigos 

The Congressman you will want to start following more closely is a distinguished gentleman named Elijah Cummings.  He is expected to be the new chair of the House Oversight Committee and he is not to be trifled with.  

look brohan if i just start following this guy they are going to lock me up and throw away the key and second i have to be at work but i appreciate the feedback take that to the bank

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10 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

Georgia deserves a little love, too IMO. They almost elected a black woman as governor despite massive voter suppression.  They quietly flipped that suburban Atlanta district that everyone got all in a tizzy about in a special election last year (GA-06, where Handel beat Ossoff ... Handel lost to an African-American gun control advocate last night).  This is a state that went for the GOP candidate by 5-10 points in every recent presidential election, including when Obama was winning handily. A state that flew the stars and bars in public spaces this century. They're moving in the right direction.

Florida remains the worst.

A friend in ATL described the state of Georgia last night as “that time in the diet when the scale says you aren’t losing weight but your clothes are getting baggy and your face is getting tighter”.  This is the time when we gotta tell Georgia to stick with it and we’re here to cheer them on and help them out.

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36 minutes ago, SWC said:

so milwaukee turned out like crazy last night way to go brew town exercising your right to vote i know a lot of rs around here who are super pissed about foxconn and even more mad that it might just be imported workers and robots while we pay the bar tab and the band and that had to hurt ole scotty walker as well take that to the bank bromigos 

Foxconn was one of many reasons I voted against Walker.  Largely, I vote democrat, but when Walker demonized public workers (of which my wife is one) and their union and I now see the impact this has on that workforce I was against him the whole way, Foxconn just added to it. 

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Underreported story so far is the impact last night will have on redistricting.  Will be worth a handful of seats on it's own after 2020.

Senate is disappointing, especially if Tester goes down.  The hill to climb in 2020 will be high even with the favorable map.

Beto's getting all the attention, but Klobuchar absolutely crushed it in MN.  Won a wide variety of districts and demolished her opponent.  Klobuchar/Beto would be a hell of a ticket.

 

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4 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

:goodposting:

Any focus on Pelosi is misguided. She's an expert vote-herder and will basically function as a Speaker Emeritus for a new generation of Dems who are learning the ropes. In fact it wouldn't surprise me at all if she come out and says the 116th is her last Congress some time in the next six months.  Cummings and Schiff are the guys who are about to make life hell for the corrupt Trump Administration.

Oh yeah, Schiff is gonna stir some #### up, too.  And his sidekick, Swalwell.

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7 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

:goodposting:

Any focus on Pelosi is misguided. She's an expert vote-herder and will basically function as a Speaker Emeritus for a new generation of Dems who are learning the ropes. In fact it wouldn't surprise me at all if she come out and says the 116th is her last Congress some time in the next six months.  Cummings and Schiff are the guys who are about to make life hell for the corrupt Trump Administration.

No way..they will have to carry her out on a gurney.

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Crazy how gerrymandered this state (NC) is, but at least the Democrats broke the super-majority.  Hopefully these illegal districts will actually get redrawn at some point....

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Oversight has had its engine turned off. I don’t even think Trump knows that exists. He’s about to find out.

Waters, Cummings, Nadler, Schiff. Who am I missing as committee chairs here. 2019 will be a ##### for Trump.

Edited by SaintsInDome2006
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7 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

:goodposting:

Any focus on Pelosi is misguided. She's an expert vote-herder and will basically function as a Speaker Emeritus for a new generation of Dems who are learning the ropes. In fact it wouldn't surprise me at all if she come out and says the 116th is her last Congress some time in the next six months.  Cummings and Schiff are the guys who are about to make life hell for the corrupt Trump Administration.

A poorly staffed Administration is about to become more so as staffers flee for safe harbor.  The only persons willing to serve moving forward will be sycophants. The boat is going to increasingly be taking on more water.

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2 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Underreported story so far is the impact last night will have on redistricting.  Will be worth a handful of seats on it's own after 2020.

Senate is disappointing, especially if Tester goes down.  The hill to climb in 2020 will be high even with the favorable map.

Beto's getting all the attention, but Klobuchar absolutely crushed it in MN.  Won a wide variety of districts and demolished her opponent.  Klobuchar/Beto would be a hell of a ticket.

 

Dems swept the statewide races in Minnesota.  Klobuchar got the vote out across the state.

I think Amy Klobuchar would be a good President.  I think she would be would very good at the day-to-day of the job.

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1 minute ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Underreported story so far is the impact last night will have on redistricting.  Will be worth a handful of seats on it's own after 2020.

Senate is disappointing, especially if Tester goes down.  The hill to climb in 2020 will be high even with the favorable map.

Beto's getting all the attention, but Klobuchar absolutely crushed it in MN.  Won a wide variety of districts and demolished her opponent.  Klobuchar/Beto would be a hell of a ticket.

 

A little noticed trend is how much bluer the more populous Rocky Mountain states are becoming. Nevada and Colorado are pretty much blue states now and Arizona, the biggest of the bunch is more purple than red. That trend isn't going to reverse in the next two years. Don won Arizona by 91,000 votes and that's not an insurmountable lead.

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1 minute ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Oversight has had its engine turned off. I don’t even think Trump knows that exists. He’s about to find out.

Waters, Cummings, Nader, Schiff. Who am I missing as committee chairs here. 2019 will be a ##### for Trump.

When it’s time for Finance to deliver the subpoena for Trump’s financial records, I hope Waters puts on her best Sunday crown and delivers it to the White House herself.

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1 minute ago, roadkill1292 said:

A little noticed trend is how much bluer the more populous Rocky Mountain states are becoming. Nevada and Colorado are pretty much blue states now and Arizona, the biggest of the bunch is more purple than red. That trend isn't going to reverse in the next two years. Don won Arizona by 91,000 votes and that's not an insurmountable lead.

Colorado elected an openly gay man governor.  

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Just now, roadkill1292 said:

A little noticed trend is how much bluer the more populous Rocky Mountain states are becoming. Nevada and Colorado are pretty much blue states now and Arizona, the biggest of the bunch is more purple than red. That trend isn't going to reverse in the next two years. Don won Arizona by 91,000 votes and that's not an insurmountable lead.

what is leading that change in co i assume it is social liberalization and marijuna but what about the other rocky states bromigo take that to the bank 

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15 minutes ago, SWC said:

look brohan if i just start following this guy they are going to lock me up and throw away the key and second i have to be at work but i appreciate the feedback take that to the bank

Fair enough.  

You up for tacos next Tuesday?  Carnitas on soft shells?

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For those that follow this WAY more than I do, would you agree that the biggest defeat was actually Florida and Ohio Governor's races?  Those states will matter big time in 2020 and going up against that will be tough, no?

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1 minute ago, SWC said:

what is leading that change in co i assume it is social liberalization and marijuna but what about the other rocky states bromigo take that to the bank 

Part of it in Colorado and Nevada is that Denver and Las Vegas have grown to be such a large percentage of the state's total population and city folk vote blue pretty much everywhere. That's why there's a good chance of turning Arizona Dem, too; the Phoenix metro area comprises something close to 60% of the state's residents. Maybe Arizona is more resistant because of the retirees there? I don't really know that part for sure.

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Just now, gianmarco said:

For those that follow this WAY more than I do, would you agree that the biggest defeat was actually Florida and Ohio Governor's races?  Those states will matter big time in 2020 and going up against that will be tough, no?

Who cares who the governor of Florida is, unless you live in Florida?  I don't see how this matters for 2020.

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Just now, Bruce Dickinson said:
12 minutes ago, SWC said:

look brohan if i just start following this guy they are going to lock me up and throw away the key and second i have to be at work but i appreciate the feedback take that to the bank

Fair enough.  

You up for tacos next Tuesday?  Carnitas on soft shells?

oh hell yeah i am if there is one thing i never say no to it is carnitas on soft shells with fresh cut jalapenos and right now i am feelin full on taco take that to the bank brohan 

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28 minutes ago, TobiasFunke said:

Georgia deserves a little love, too IMO. They almost elected a black woman as governor despite massive voter suppression.  They quietly flipped that suburban Atlanta district that everyone got all in a tizzy about in a special election last year (GA-06, where Handel beat Ossoff ... Handel lost to an African-American gun control advocate last night).  This is a state that went for the GOP candidate by 5-10 points in every recent presidential election, including when Obama was winning handily. A state that flew the stars and bars in public spaces this century. They're moving in the right direction.

Florida remains the worst.

:bowtie:   Suck it Florida!

And hey, Abrams hasn't quite lost yet.  Updated vote numbers for Abrams show that Kemp is down to 50.4  - she's 68k behind - if she could by some miracle find some more absentee ballots then who knows.  And even if she doesn't, if you told me 10 years ago that I black female candidate for Governor would take a good old boy white man down to the wire in GA I would have thought you were crazy.  Georgia is now purple - in 10 years it will be blue.

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Just now, gianmarco said:

For those that follow this WAY more than I do, would you agree that the biggest defeat was actually Florida and Ohio Governor's races?  Those states will matter big time in 2020 and going up against that will be tough, no?

Not Florida. A black man almost won the governor's race and over a million new eligible voters with no love for Republicans will be able to cast ballots in 2020.

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11 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

A little noticed trend is how much bluer the more populous Rocky Mountain states are becoming. Nevada and Colorado are pretty much blue states now and Arizona, the biggest of the bunch is more purple than red. That trend isn't going to reverse in the next two years. Don won Arizona by 91,000 votes and that's not an insurmountable lead.

I look forward to voting out Gardner in 2020

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Just now, gianmarco said:

For those that follow this WAY more than I do, would you agree that the biggest defeat was actually Florida and Ohio Governor's races?  Those states will matter big time in 2020 and going up against that will be tough, no?

I'm not sure how much the governor's races matter in 2020.  Also the Dems don't need those states to win the presidency.  They have other paths, the most obvious and easiest of which is to simply take back the three traditionally light blue Great Lakes states that Trump barely won in 2016 and that the Dems dominated last night. If they simply flip Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania back, and hold the states Clinton won (not one of which is currently at risk of flipping to red as of now), the Dems are 8 clear of what they need in the electoral college. They also will have chances to flip Iowa, Arizona and North Carolina.

Basically Ohio is a pipe dream, if the Dems are threatening there it likely means they won the election already.  And Florida is a necessity for the GOP, and important but not necessary for the Dems.

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1 hour ago, shader said:

Trump basically endorsing Pelosi.  Reverse mind games?  

He thinks it’s funny that the Dems will put her in such a prominent position. He knows that people including many democrats will not be excited that she is in charge.

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3 minutes ago, Bucky86 said:

I look forward to voting out Gardner in 2020

Cory may as well get a head start moving his stuff out of Washington - he's like Sears right now.

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21 minutes ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Underreported story so far is the impact last night will have on redistricting.  Will be worth a handful of seats on it's own after 2020.

Senate is disappointing, especially if Tester goes down.  The hill to climb in 2020 will be high even with the favorable map.

Beto's getting all the attention, but Klobuchar absolutely crushed it in MN.  Won a wide variety of districts and demolished her opponent.  Klobuchar/Beto would be a hell of a ticket.

 

I think Tester is going to win.  From looking at the map I'm only seeing blue districts with votes still left and the margin is close enough for him to make that up.  Trump with potentially another Big Victory in Montana.

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6 minutes ago, roadkill1292 said:

Part of it in Colorado and Nevada is that Denver and Las Vegas have grown to be such a large percentage of the state's total population and city folk vote blue pretty much everywhere. That's why there's a good chance of turning Arizona Dem, too; the Phoenix metro area comprises something close to 60% of the state's residents. Maybe Arizona is more resistant because of the retirees there? I don't really know that part for sure.

Colorado is becoming a hub for alternative energy technologies, which is a young person’s tech and is drawing young people from all over the world to come to Colorado to work on it.  Denver is struggling to build housing fast enough to keep up with demand, and it’s spreading to Colorado Springs, Boulder, and Fort Collins.  Fort Collins runs all their municipal vehicles on alternative fuels - lots of cars/trucks/buses on natural gas or taking old Diesel engines and converting them to run on recycled vegetable oil: riding the bus there smells like French fries or Chinese food.

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7 minutes ago, Bucky86 said:

I look forward to voting out Gardner in 2020

A high school friend recently got a form letter response from Gardner’s office where the staffer forgot to fill in the form letter fields.  He posted a screenshot of it. It literally said “thanks for contacting me about ________” with the blank not filled in. And a spot where a paragraph should have been inserted just read “CONTENT”.  

He joked “feel free to refer to this letter for any future correspondence with this office”.

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15 minutes ago, IvanKaramazov said:

Who cares who the governor of Florida is, unless you live in Florida?  I don't see how this matters for 2020.

Ivan, you need to look at what Kemp is doing to minority voters in Georgia with the aid of the outgoing governor. Abrams sitting in that seat seriously enhances Dems' chances of capturing the eighth most populous state in the nation.

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I know folks are excited about investigating Trump but I don't think that is the path to winning in 2020.  I do think Russia investigation should be continued to its conclusion but lets not go down the path all the house does is subpoena Trump. The republicans tried that with Clinton and Obama and it helped them get reelected.  I hate that the first thing MSNBC was talking about last night was getting Trumps tax records.  That is not going to win over purple voters and help their case in 2020. 

 

They should try to push forward bills that strengthen their position in elections (e.g. repeal the tax cuts, healthcare improvements, etc.).  I know they won't become law but try to make some progress that makes Republicans look like they aren't doing anything.  I li

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1 hour ago, Ditkaless Wonders said:

Beats the old process where Sheriff Joe had to incarcerate a brown person for every Democrat vote cast.  Some years they were running out of tents for his tent city jail.  Canvas manufacturers lament the change of policy but ammunition sellers love it.

Also, pink underwear.

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