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Joe Bryant

Your Take On Josh Gordon Week 13 Over - Under 40 yards

Over / Under for Josh Gordon this week at 39.5 yards.   

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I don't like the matchup or the quarterback, but it's only going to take a few catches to reach that if he breaks free in the least. Over. 

 

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I mean, over all day.  One crossing route and he can get the over.  Think the o/u on receptions is 3/4, which i'd also take the over on all day.

 

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I think over.  But barely.  I see between 50-60 yards.  If they were playing a soft defense, I could see him making a bigger impact.  Rust plus San Diego's great defensive backs is keeping my expectations low.

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Over but wouldn't start.

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7 minutes ago, JuniorNB said:

I think over.  But barely.  I see between 50-60 yards.  If they were playing a soft defense, I could see him making a bigger impact.  Rust plus San Diego's great defensive backs is keeping my expectations low.

What he said

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I think over, but only because he could get more than 15 targets. I wouldn't be surprised if there was also at least 2 interceptions while he's being targeted. 

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Huge fan. I might have watched every game he played in his 2nd season. But the following year (2014?) when he came back wasn't pretty. I won't be surprised either way, but I'll be pulling for him.

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1 minute ago, SaintsInDome2006 said:

Huge fan. I might have watched every game he played in his 2nd season. But the following year (2014?) when he came back wasn't pretty. I won't be surprised either way, but I'll be pulling for him.

Yeah, I'll be pulling for more than football with him. He sounds like he had a very troubled youth in that SI article (or whomever it was) that he did.  

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I think the smart bet is the under. 

They might not play him enough to get the targets. They might not target him enough to get the receptions.  He might not be good enough to get open against a tough pass d. The qb might not be good enough to get it to him.  The qb might not trust himself to throw it into coverage.  The qb might not trust him enough to throw it to a new receiver in tight coverage.   He might not be in good enough shape to run full speed on every route.   He could get hurt early.  They might not coach to get the ball in his hands enough.  They might not want the media circus of him getting huge numbers right away.  They might not trust him with immediate success.  They might run the ball a ton. He might get the ball like any other starting receiver and have a 38 yard day. It happens all the time. 

Or he might play well in his first game. That's absolutely possible.  They might even want to feature him. Etc. It's easy to imagine him doing well but if you gave me a chance to make this bet a hundred times I'd take the under all 100.

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I'm keeping him on the bench this week and I was feeling his usage might be limited but I read yesterday that they were starting him. It now seems like they are plugging him into a prominent role right away so I am going to take the over side of this unexciting output of 39.5 yards.

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Voted over.

He's already been announced as a starter. There's a realistic chance Casey Hayward doesn't play this week. I guess it depends how many snaps and more importantly how many targets they give him. When he last played in 2014 he was hauling in slightly more than 50% of his targets and that was with no practice or contact with the team prior to his suspension return. He didn't know the playbook and ran the wrong routes during those games. I feel if he gets at least 6 targets he'll get at least 3 catches and that will put him >39.5 yards.

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In 10 games this season, the browns have had a wide receiver go over 39 yards 10 times.   Twice they had no receiver go over 39 yards, and twice they had two in the same game.

Coleman has done it 3 times in 4 games played and is likely to go over 40 again this week. 

They've had duke and devalve go over 39 yards much more frequently.  

This is a sucker bet.  You might win it but you're betting against the odds. 

 

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Josh Gordon hasn't played for the Cleveland Browns. This isn't a team bet. Great players find ways to get theirs. 

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42 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

In 10 games this season, the browns have had a wide receiver go over 39 yards 10 times.   Twice they had no receiver go over 39 yards, and twice they had two in the same game.

Coleman has done it 3 times in 4 games played and is likely to go over 40 again this week. 

They've had duke and devalve go over 39 yards much more frequently.  

This is a sucker bet.  You might win it but you're betting against the odds. 

 

If they have had 10 WR's go over 39 yards and Coleman had done it 75% of the time that sounds like  the odds are in your favor to me.

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Think you have to take the over if you believe Jackson is going to play Gordon "as much as Gordon can play".  Especially if you think the spread will hold.  That will mean a lot of garbage time stats for Cleveland.

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The Browns are hot-garbage.  They need something, anything to light a spark as they don't want to go 0-16.  Hue Jackson's response to whether Gordon will start and/or be on a pitch count:

"Am I comfortable saying [he will start]? Heck yeah," Jackson said. "Are you kidding me? Yeah he's gonna start, right away."

Will Gordon be on a pitch count?

"Let her rip," Jackson said. "Pitch count? With this guy? Nooo."

Certainly could be coach speak but they need some positive outcomes here.  Think they will target him early and often and like I said, it takes one play like this one, as outlined in this week's gut check to break the over.

Edited by unckeyherb

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42 minutes ago, bostonfred said:

In 10 games this season, the browns have had a wide receiver go over 39 yards 10 times.   Twice they had no receiver go over 39 yards, and twice they had two in the same game.

Coleman has done it 3 times in 4 games played and is likely to go over 40 again this week. 

They've had duke and devalve go over 39 yards much more frequently.  

This is a sucker bet.  You might win it but you're betting against the odds. 

 

I disagree that it's against the odds.  You're assuming what has happened continues even though Gordon returns.  Doesn't work that way.  Things are going to change now that Gordon is back in the fold.....because of his talent.  Sure he's going to be rusty, but all it takes one big play......and CLE is going to be behind all day long.

I give it a 60-65% chance at the over.  My projection is 5-70 with a 30-40% chance at a TD.

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This is an easy over. He’s starting, Hue has said he won’t be holding him back and he likes to run his offense through the deep ball. Wouldn’t shock me at all if he completely tees off. 

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That over is a :IBTL:, but I’m curious what the payout on that is? Bet $100 to win $7.00 or something? 

Seems like the kind of prop that likely only pays out on the under.  If it’s -120 or anywhere near close to even money I’mma throw a couple of shekels at the over. 

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19 minutes ago, Bojang0301 said:

This is an easy over. He’s starting, Hue has said he won’t be holding him back and he likes to run his offense through the deep ball. Wouldn’t shock me at all if he completely tees off. 

With 39.5 all he needs is one deep catch. 

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We're talking about a team that plays from behind, is playing one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, and has an RB averaging 3.8 YPC, though he's been much better in two out of the the last three weeks.  

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Fwiw i cant find any prop bets on Bodog or Bovada for Josh Gordon over under. Where are you seeing this?

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Under based on game script, easing him back in, rust, etc.  Though I do like him a lot the following weeks.

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4 minutes ago, jabarony said:

Under based on game script, easing him back in, rust, etc.  Though I do like him a lot the following weeks.

in most situations, I would agree.  And history is definitely on your side.  But what is there to "ease into" for the Browns?  CLE is 0-11 and season is over.  Fan expectations.....the whole nation's expectations are that the game will be a blowout, so why no let a rip?  Even if CLE goes down hard by trying to force-feed Gordon the ball, who is gonna care?  The alternative is the coaching staff does bring him along slowly, and then fans and media ask why the coaches didn't feature their stallion in the race.

If the under wins, I think it will be because LA double teams him the whole game.  But eventually, garbage time should win out.

Isn't speculation great.  LOL

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Just now, chad in Indy said:

in most situations, I would agree.  And history is definitely on your side.  But what is there to "ease into" for the Browns?  CLE is 0-11 and season is over.  Fan expectations.....the whole nation's expectations are that the game will be a blowout, so why no let a rip?  Even if CLE goes down hard by trying to force-feed Gordon the ball, who is gonna care?  The alternative is the coaching staff does bring him along slowly, and then fans and media ask why the coaches didn't feature their stallion in the race.

If the under wins, I think it will be because LA double teams him the whole game.  But eventually, garbage time should win out.

Isn't speculation great.  LOL

This is my thinking.  Even if they more or less contain him for three quarters (which I'm not confident will happen) he needs one play to break the over in garbage time.  If he catches 2-3 balls in the fourth against soft coverage, he'll go over 40.

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53 minutes ago, unckeyherb said:

Fwiw i cant find any prop bets on Bodog or Bovada for Josh Gordon over under. Where are you seeing this?

 

@unckeyherb - I found the prop bet yesterday at Bodog by typing Josh Gordon’s name into the search bar; however, when I attempted to replicate the same steps today there was no Josh Gordon prop bets that I could find on the bodog website today.

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1 minute ago, Faust said:

 

@unckeyherb - I found the prop bet yesterday at Bodog by typing Josh Gordon’s name into the search bar; however, when I attempted to replicate the same steps today there was no Josh Gordon prop bets that I could find on the bodog website today.

Thanks Joe 

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6 minutes ago, Faust said:

 

@unckeyherb - I found the prop bet yesterday at Bodog by typing Josh Gordon’s name into the search bar; however, when I attempted to replicate the same steps today there was no Josh Gordon prop bets that I could find on the bodog website today.

thanks and very interesting.  I wonder if they realized their folly..

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That prop is pretty sketchy and makes me think there's a decent chance he just completely ####s the bed. From a game script perspective (LAC -14), assuming his snaps aren't limited to any real extent, he should eclipse 39.5 yards rather easily. He could simply eclipse that on the final drive vs. a prevent defense. So yeah, that prop is probably a trap.

Edited by SameSongNDance

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I think he'll beat the over, but not by a large margin. My ###-pull number would be 4 - 60 (intuition said 57 yards). I just don't see the Browns scoring many TDs on Sunday.

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He went over 39.5 in 80% of his 5 games in 2014 (with a median of 48 yards and an average of 60.6 ypg). And the Browns coaching staff is saying good stuff about him and appears to plan on putting him right in there in a starting role. I'll take the over.

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6 minutes ago, ZWK said:

He went over 39.5 in 80% of his 5 games in 2014 (with a median of 48 yards and an average of 60.6 ypg). And the Browns coaching staff is saying good stuff about him and appears to plan on putting him right in there in a starting role. I'll take the over.

IIRC he went something like 8-120-0 and 7-75-0 on 16 & 13 targets? It was the last two weeks of the FF season. He was going to be a Kingmaker!

First round of FF Playoffs? 7 targets 2-15-0

Don’t remember the last two weeks before they sent him home before  Week 17. Lots of backbiting about him not knowing the playbook, causing interceptions.

First two games were Hoyer, who missed him badly on several occasions. Johnny Football was worse & then came all the complaining about Gordon “running the wrong routes all year.”

4-55-0 so I guess I’ll vote the over

:shrug:

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Bodog erased that wager faster than Joe banned Wheels Up yesterday. 

Imagine offering such a ridiculous line

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Agree on over, but not by much. The Chargers have the best trio of corners in the league as well as the best pair of pass rushers. Doesn’t shape up like a game to expect Kizer to play well. 

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4 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Agree on over, but not by much. The Chargers have the best trio of corners in the league as well as the best pair of pass rushers. Doesn’t shape up like a game to expect Kizer to play well. 

How big are their corners, out of curiosity? Not saying you're wrong, just curious.  

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I think the Chargers DB's are good, Kizer is a mess, and Cleveland won't be throwing a ton.   I go with the under....barely.   2-38

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Gordon has three-five inches and 30-50 pounds on every corner and safety they have. This ought to be fun. All you have to do is throw up a jump ball and you're hitting the over.  

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I know it's never that easy, and there's way more to football, but he's so physically dominant that it's not funny. 

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35 minutes ago, Just Win Baby said:

Agree on over, but not by much. The Chargers have the best trio of corners in the league as well as the best pair of pass rushers. Doesn’t shape up like a game to expect Kizer to play well. 

It's a terrible match up but I would not assume Gordon is getting shadow treatment by Hayward. Not at first anyway.

 

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7 hours ago, bostonfred said:

In 10 games this season, the browns have had a wide receiver go over 39 yards 10 times.   Twice they had no receiver go over 39 yards, and twice they had two in the same game.

Coleman has done it 3 times in 4 games played and is likely to go over 40 again this week. 

They've had duke and devalve go over 39 yards much more frequently.  

This is a sucker bet.  You might win it but you're betting against the odds. 

 

I like you @bostonfred and I'd trust a bet with you. Care to wager a Paypal bet on this one? I got over 39.5 yards for JG.

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