He also hasn't played in three years, has a crappy QB, and has never played a game sober. Assuming he will be back at peak abilities is not a sure thing.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.
Your Take On Josh Gordon Week 13 Over - Under 40 yards (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Joe Bryant
- Start date
rockaction
Footballguy
This is true. I'm just talking about setting the line at forty. You don't know what you're going to get.
Has everyone pushing the Kizer is crappy narrative watched him play the last few weeks? He's not been a world beater, but considering the comp I think he's played solid football.
With this "crappy QB" Coleman rolled out and posted 80 yards against the tough Jags D and then went for 64 yards against a Bengals team which has only given more yards to a WR in a game since week 3 to Brown(65 yards) and Lee(75) and if he'd held on to that TD would have been most yards against them since week 3.
SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I don't think Gordon is getting Hayward and I'm not sure it matters. Williams has allowed a passer rating of 69.8 on throws into his coverage. It's crazy that they had someone like him to replace Verrett. No matter where Gordon lines up on Sunday there's no real exploitable match-up. If Gordon, for instance, is the first WR to go over 100 yards vs. LAC I will bow before the altar.
tombonneau
Footballguy
What odds do I get on out in the first half with a hammy?
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Tau837
Footballguy
And Hayward might not even play due to the death of his brother.
That said, FWIW PFF ranks the Chargers top 3 corners as #1 (Hayward), #12 (King), and #13 (Williams) out of 171 graded CBs and ranks the Chargers top 2 DEs as #3 (Bosa) and #7 (Ingram) out of 163 graded edge defenders. If the Chargers perceive Gordon as the Browns' #1 WR, they might have Hayward shadow him if he plays. Even if not, he will still be matched up against really good corners.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
It’s probably the only one that pays enough to be worth betting.Gopher State said:
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Does anyone know what the odds on this prop are?
I’ve mentioned it before in here - if you’re risking $100 to win $5, then the other narratives are meaningless.
It sounds like some folks here don’t get how Vegas wins with prop bets - it’s not about the prop itself, it’s about the payout. E.G. Vegas isn’t necessarily saying they expect the under by setting the yardage so low.
Im very curious what this over pays....guessing it’s not good. If I’m wrong, and it’s anywhere close to even money, then clearly Vegas thinks Gordon will be <40 yards.
I’ve mentioned it before in here - if you’re risking $100 to win $5, then the other narratives are meaningless.
It sounds like some folks here don’t get how Vegas wins with prop bets - it’s not about the prop itself, it’s about the payout. E.G. Vegas isn’t necessarily saying they expect the under by setting the yardage so low.
Im very curious what this over pays....guessing it’s not good. If I’m wrong, and it’s anywhere close to even money, then clearly Vegas thinks Gordon will be <40 yards.
Bovada:
The first Josh Gordon prop bet is in regards to his total receiving yardage. This will be his first game in three years, so Bovada is actually starting the bidding fairly low:
Over 39.5 (-120)
Under 39.5 (-120)
So, this is pretty close to an even bet - from Vegas' perspective.
Kizer is averaging 33.5 attempts in the last 4 games, with 6.4 yards per attempt.
Coleman played twice, and had 19 targets (9.5/game), Ricardo Louis averaged 4.5 targets per game.
Coleman averaged 16 yards per reception, 8 yards per target.
I think a reasonable expectation for Gordon is 8 targets, 5 receptions, 60 yards.
Cleveland/Gordon have two things going for them - they will probably be losing, requiring more passes, and they need something (Gordon) to hang their hat on - to make people forget the miserable season. I expect the actual numbers - in terms of targets and receptions to be higher...though if Kizer forces it - the interceptions could rise...
Coleman played twice, and had 19 targets (9.5/game), Ricardo Louis averaged 4.5 targets per game.
Coleman averaged 16 yards per reception, 8 yards per target.
I think a reasonable expectation for Gordon is 8 targets, 5 receptions, 60 yards.
Cleveland/Gordon have two things going for them - they will probably be losing, requiring more passes, and they need something (Gordon) to hang their hat on - to make people forget the miserable season. I expect the actual numbers - in terms of targets and receptions to be higher...though if Kizer forces it - the interceptions could rise...
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Amazing - in that case the over is incredibly tempting.
My friend in Vegas said he saw it at 46.5 yards this AM.
rockaction
Footballguy
That's what I was coming in to post about 40 yards.Was that the 1st half line?
Told you guys about the jump ball.
Remember Hue is the WR whisperer. Remember what he did with Denarius Moore.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
BOOM!!!! :IBTL:
bostonfred
Footballguy
Well done to the people who bet it. I underestimated how much they wanted to get the ball to him this week. 11 targets in his first game. I guess it makes sense since these games are just televised practices. Coleman and duke pretty much disappeared.
rockaction
Footballguy
Coleman was dropping balls last week and this. Gordon did get a lot of targets, and I expect that to somewhat continue. He's one of the best players on any field he steps on. Crowell disappeared, too, but they kept up with the Chargers, which isn't bad for an 0-11 team.
85 yards was about what I figured, just on not as many targets. The garbage time catch and run was more what I envisioned. I hope game plans stay the same for him.
eta* It only took one jump ball for thirty yards of the over, and it's Hue Jackson calling the plays. Remember what he did with Denarius Moore back when Denarius was a sensation.
Last edited by a moderator:
Aznflyer14
Footballguy
I clearly underestimated Gordon's sheer physical talents with good stats today especially vs. top-caliber CB Casey Hayward and others. To think that he did not play for nearly 3 years and then picked up right where he left off. Shame that Kizer was not able to connect his passes to Gordon but that's given due to lack of chemistry. If anything, Gordon should be his first read regardless.
Last edited by a moderator:
Stompin' Tom Connors
Footballguy
Here to eat my share of crow -- Gordon looked good out there, and underestimated the time to come to full speed in a game after years of being absent, and the relative suckiness of all other WR options for the Browns yesterday.
Will be interesting to see how he plays out ROS and as a result, where his ADP might end up for next year's draft.
Kizer forced fed him the ball like Crazy. He wasn't open on most plays but Kizer just kept throwing it to him. It didn't really help the offense much because the vast majority of passes to him were incomplete, I own Duke Johnson and both he and Coleman suffered big time because Kizer had tunnel vision for Gordon. I don't know If I can play Duke anymore.
Similar threads
