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Fantasy offseason dynasty rankings?

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16 hours ago, tripp said:

I'm working on my ranks now. How crazy would I be to leave Blake Martinez and Joe schobert out of my overall top 50 IDPs for fear they don't land full-time gigs in free agency?

Rank them how you see it - don't adjust to seem normal unless you want to.  Sometimes LBs don't land a good job, or even a job at all (Navorro Bowman post-Raiders).

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On 1/27/2020 at 8:36 PM, Tick said:

I accidentally pointed to the redraft rankings.  https://www.big3idp.com/top150idp is dynasty.

Interesting on draft pedigree

1st round 59 (31 DL 17 LB 11 DB)

2nd round 29 (5 DL 15 LB 9 DB)

3rd round 25 (7 DL 10 LB 8 DB)

4th round 16 (4 DL 10 LB 2 DB)

5Th round 12 ( 1 DL 10 LB 1DB)

6th round 2 ( 1 LB 1 DB)

7th round 1 (1 DB)

undrafted 6 ( 4 LB 2 DB)

Draft pedigree is huge especially for DL. We know not as many LB are drafted round 1. In fact since 2011 33 LB drafted in round 1, 37 in round 2 and 39 in round 3. So LB drafted here have 52% in round 1, 41% in round 2 and 26% in round 3. 

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On ‎2‎/‎1‎/‎2020 at 6:31 PM, tripp said:

I'm working on my ranks now. How crazy would I be to leave Blake Martinez and Joe schobert out of my overall top 50 IDPs for fear they don't land full-time gigs in free agency?

Schobert finished the year quite high but he had two monster games that somewhat inflated his numbers.  He is a solid guy that was on the field basically 100% of the time.  He misses tackles occasionally and isn't as good as he seems.  I am actually trying to trade him at the moment because I don't think he is a top 10 type guy but may bring that in return for those that look at overall numbers instead of game to game numbers. 

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5 hours ago, Gally said:

Schobert finished the year quite high but he had two monster games that somewhat inflated his numbers.  He is a solid guy that was on the field basically 100% of the time.  He misses tackles occasionally and isn't as good as he seems.  I am actually trying to trade him at the moment because I don't think he is a top 10 type guy but may bring that in return for those that look at overall numbers instead of game to game numbers. 

I grabbed him for free when the preseason rumors of 2017 had him vying for the starting gig and have had zero success trying to move him since, despite a top 10 finish in 2 of 3 seasons. I can't imagine he's going to gain value if he goes to a new situation, though maybe a big payday (should a team choose to do so) plus the top 10 finish this year will be enough to get a nibble.

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That's my first time seeing LV as a team designation.

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Average of my rankings, Norton's, Big3's, and Kyle's (fixed):

  1. Hunter, Danielle MIN DE
  2. Bosa, Joey LAC DE
  3. Garrett, Myles CLE DE
  4. Bosa, Nick SFO DE
  5. Donald, Aaron LAR DT
  6. Buckner, DeForest SFO DT
  7. Jordan, Cameron NOS DE
  8. Crosby, Maxx OAK DE
  9. Hubbard, Sam CIN DE
  10. Allen, Josh JAC DE
  11. Ngakoue, Yannick JAC DE
  12. Clark, Frank KCC DE
  13. Watt, J.J. HOU DE
  14. Armstead, Arik SFO DE
  15. Clowney, Jadeveon SEA DE
  16. Jones, Chris KCC DT
  17. Allen, Jonathan WAS DE
  18. Lawrence, Demarcus DAL DE
  19. Flowers, Trey DET DE
  20. Ingram, Melvin LAC DE
  21. Dunlap, Carlos CIN DE
  22. Heyward, Cameron PIT DE
  23. Ioannidis, Matt WAS DE
  24. Ferrell, Clelin OAK DE
  25. Davenport, Marcus NOS DE
  26. Pierre-Paul, Jason TBB DE
  27. Oliver, Ed BUF DT
  28. Griffen, Everson MIN DE
  29. Campbell, Calais JAC DE
  30. Clark, Kenny GBB DT
  31. Barnett, Derek PHI DE
  32. Quinn, Robert DAL DE
  33. Houston, Justin IND DE
  34. Hicks, Akiem CHI DE
  35. Burns, Brian CAR DE
  36. Casey, Jurrell TEN DE
  37. Graham, Brandon PHI DE
  38. Jarrett, Grady ATL DT
  39. Vernon, Olivier CLE DE
  40. Ford, Dee SFO DE
  41. Tuitt, Stephon PIT DE
  42. Reed, Jarran SEA DT
  43. Simmons, Jefferey TEN DT
  44. Cox, Fletcher PHI DT
  45. Sweat, Montez WAS DE
  46. Ogunjobi, Larry CLE DT
  47. Fowler, Dante LAR DE
  48. Atkins, Geno CIN DT
  49. Winovich, Chase NEP DE
  50. Beasley Jr, Vic ATL DE
  51. Charlton, Taco MIA DE
  52. Lawson, Shaq BUF DE
  53. Richardson, Sheldon CLE DT
  54. McCoy, Gerald CAR DT
  55. Murphy, Trent BUF DE
  56. Williams, Quinnen NYJ DE
  57. Bennett, Michael DAL DE
  58. Autry, Denico IND DT
  59. Collier, L.J. SEA DE
  60. Ogbah, Emmanuel KCC DE
  61. Speaks, Breeland KCC DE
Edited by Tick
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Average DB rankings (fixed)

  1. Adams, Jamal NYJ S
  2. Baker, Budda ARI S
  3. James, Derwin LAC S
  4. Collins, Landon WAS S
  5. Johnson, John LAR S
  6. Bell, Vonn NOS S
  7. Neal, Keanu ATL S
  8. Peppers, Jabrill NYG S
  9. Walker, Tracy DET S
  10. Byard, Kevin TEN S
  11. Bates, Jessie CIN S
  12. Reid, Justin HOU S
  13. Harrison, Ronnie JAC S
  14. Mathieu, Tyrann KCC S
  15. Reid, Eric CAR S
  16. Williams, Shawn CIN S
  17. Edmunds, Terrell PIT S
  18. Fitzpatrick, Minkah PIT S
  19. Amos, Adrian GBP S
  20. Simmons, Justin DEN S
  21. Poyer, Jordan BUF S
  22. Smith, Harrison MIN S
  23. Willis, Khari IND S
  24. Clinton-Dix, Ha Ha CHI S
  25. Rapp, Taylor LAR S
  26. McDougald, Bradley SEA S
  27. Abram, Jonathan OAK S
  28. Jackson, Eddie CHI S
  29. Clark, Chuck BAL S
  30. Joseph, Karl OAK S
  31. Jenkins, Malcolm PHI S
  32. Savage, Darnell GBP S
  33. Bethea, Antoine NYG S
  34. Fuller, Kyle CHI CB
  35. Ryan, Logan TEN CB
  36. Thornhill, Juan KCC S
  37. Wilson, Tavon DET S
  38. Diggs, Quandre SEA S
  39. Randall, Damarious CLE S
  40. Evans, Justin TBB S
  41. Alexander, Jaire GBP CB
  42. Harris, Erik OAK S
  43. Bradberry, James CAR CB
  44. Gardner-Johnson, Chauncey NOS S
  45. Flowers, Tre SEA CB
  46. Tartt, Jaquiski SFO S
  47. Whitehead, Jordan TBB S
  48. Harris, Anthony MIN S
  49. Jenkins, Janoris NOS CB
  50. Jones, Reshad MIA S
  51. Hargreaves III, Vernon HOU CB
  52. Blair, Marquise SEA S
  53. Williams, Marcus NOS S
  54. Mills, Jalen PHI CB
  55. Geathers, Clayton IND S
  56. Moore II, Kenny IND CB
  57. Davis, Sean PIT S
  58. Hyde, Micah BUF S
  59. Ramsey, Jalen LAR CB
  60. Nicholson, Montae WAS S
  61. Jefferson, Tony FA S
Edited by Tick
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Average LB rankings, including the same people plus MAC32 (most pre-Kuechly retirement):

  1. Leonard, Darius IND LB
  2. White, Devin TBB LB
  3. Smith, Jaylon DAL LB
  4. Edmunds, Tremaine BUF LB
  5. Littleton, Cory LAR LB
  6. Smith, Roquan CHI LB
  7. Cunningham, Zach HOU LB
  8. Wagner, Bobby SEA LB
  9. Martinez, Blake GBP LB
  10. Warner, Fred SFO LB
  11. Bush, Devin PIT LB
  12. Schobert, Joe CLE LB
  13. Hicks, Jordan ARI LB
  14. Thompson, Shaq CAR LB
  15. Brown, Jayon TEN LB
  16. Jones, Deion ATL LB
  17. Mosley, C.J. NYJ LB
  18. Vander Esch, Leighton DAL LB
  19. Kendricks, Eric MIN LB
  20. Evans, Rashaan TEN LB
  21. Alexander, Kwon SFO LB
  22. David, Lavonte TBB LB
  23. Milano, Matt BUF LB
  24. Baker, Jerome MIA LB
  25. Jack, Myles JAC LB
  26. Davis, Demario NOS LB
  27. Kuechly, Luke CAR LB
  28. Pratt, Germaine CIN LB
  29. McKinney, Benardrick HOU LB
  30. Watt, T.J. PIT LB
  31. Campbell, De'Vondre ATL LB
  32. Williamson, Avery NYJ LB
  33. Wilson, Mack CLE LB
  34. Foster, Reuben WAS LB
  35. Trevathan, Danny FA LB
  36. Kirksey, Christian FA LB
  37. Tranquill, Drue SDC LB
  38. Wright, K.J. SEA LB
  39. Tavai, Jahlani DET LB
  40. Walker, Anthony IND LB
  41. Jones, Chandler ARI LB
  42. Davis, Jarrad DET LB
  43. Mack, Khalil CHI LB
  44. Collins, Jamie NEP LB
  45. Davis, Todd DEN LB
  46. Holcomb, Cole WAS LB
  47. Barrett, Shaquil TBB LB
  48. Johnson, A.J. DEN LB
  49. Smith, Za'Darius GBB LB
  50. Kwiatkoski, Nick FA LB
  51. Okereke, Bobby IND LB
  52. Smith, Telvin JAC LB
  53. Greenlaw, Dre SFO LB
  54. Landry, Harold TEN LB
  55. Vigil, Nick FA LB
  56. Whitehead, Tahir OAK LB
  57. Chubb, Bradley DEN LB
  58. Golden, Markus NYG LB
  59. Ogletree, Alec NYG LB
  60. Barton, Cody SEA LB
  61. Connelly, Ryan NYG LB
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Had to fix the DB and DL lists again - it was screwing over the guys late in the alphabet due to an error by me.

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On 3/19/2020 at 11:43 AM, Tick said:

New Norton rankings today!

These are...interesting. Recently-released soon-to-be-36-year-old Antoine Bethea at #27 of the dynasty safety rankings, while a player like 24-year old Chuck Clark doesn't crack the top-50?

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6 hours ago, onionsack said:

These are...interesting. Recently-released soon-to-be-36-year-old Antoine Bethea at #27 of the dynasty safety rankings, while a player like 24-year old Chuck Clark doesn't crack the top-50?

I wanna be in the league where someone values Maxx Crosby over either Bosa. 

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3 hours ago, Tick said:

Dave Larkin rankings up now.

Fascinating how radically different they are from Norton's. Several players 30 places apart in the two lists.

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17 hours ago, tripp said:

Fascinating how radically different they are from Norton's. Several players 30 places apart in the two lists.

It looked like Larkin just left out guys who aren't signed (for the most part).  Clowney, Griffin.

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This might be the first time in history that FBG has more IDP dynasty rankings up than offensive dynasty rankings.

...which I don't mind at all, because there are 20 other places with offensive rankings up, but very few with IDP rankings.

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If Carolina is switching back to a 4-3, what does that do to Brian Burns' ranking? He should move up in value, yes?

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Outward indications is that the Panthers will go 4-3 this season. I like Burns's upside in Phil Snow's defense. Burns looked good rushing the passer last year but was a liability in run D. I gotta imagine Snow figures something out here. The Panthers are too undermanned to leave Burns on the bench like Perry Fewell did down the stretch last season.

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Hmm - might be the same rankings, just with a new date?

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45 minutes ago, Tick said:

I have never liked the way they have the table set up.  It limits the listing because it never removes the other position when you try and isolate something like DT.  So instead of getting 50 or so you end up with less because the table stays the same.  I am not sure why they have it set up like that. 

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1 hour ago, Gally said:

I have never liked the way they have the table set up.  It limits the listing because it never removes the other position when you try and isolate something like DT.  So instead of getting 50 or so you end up with less because the table stays the same.  I am not sure why they have it set up like that. 

I'm glad I'm not the only one that this frustrates - I can only assume it is so that it shows how they view the players overall while highlighting the selected position, but I find it very difficult to work with. Would at least like the option to view only the selected position.

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1 minute ago, acarey50 said:

I'm glad I'm not the only one that this frustrates - I can only assume it is so that it shows how they view the players overall while highlighting the selected position, but I find it very difficult to work with. Would at least like the option to view only the selected position.

But they could have it in relation by choosing DL (which included DE and DT).  It is fairly simple to do but not having the option to just have 50 or so DT by choosing DT seems strange.  Very confusing to me.

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1 minute ago, Gally said:

But they could have it in relation by choosing DL (which included DE and DT).  It is fairly simple to do but not having the option to just have 50 or so DT by choosing DT seems strange.  Very confusing to me.

That would require 50 DTs to be ranked......    :)

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Posted (edited)

Rough Draft (not gonna bother w/tiers until at least the next run-through)

EDIT: Tackle heavy, dynasty slant

Rank Player Team Age

1 Darius Leonard Indy 25

2 Devin Bush Pittsburgh 22

3 Devin White TB 22

4 Cory Littleton LV 26

5 Jaylon Smith Dallas 25

6 Blake Martinez NYG 26

7 Joe Schobert Jax 26

8 Roquan Smith Chicago 23

9 Tremaine Edmonds Buffalo 22

10 Fred Warner SF 23

11 Bobby Wagner Seattle 30

12 Zach Cunningham Houston 25

13 Deion Jones Atlanta 25

14 CJ Mosley Jets 28

15 Patrick Queen Baltimore 21

16 Isaiah Simmons Zona 22

17 Christian Kirksey Green Bay 28

18 Shaq Thompson Carolina 26

19 Lavonte David TB 30

20 Demario Davis NO 31

21 Rashaan Evans Tennessee 24

22 Eric Kendricks Minnesota 28

23 Jamie Collins Detroit 30

24 Jordan Hicks Zona 28

25 Jayon Brown Tennessee 25

26 Kwon Alexander SF 26

27 Todd Davis Denver 28

28 Kenneth Murray LAC 21

29 Logan Wilson Cincinnati 24

30 KJ Wright Seattle 31

31 Leighton Vander Esch Dallas 24

32 Danny Trevathan Chicago 30

33 Anthony Hitchens KC 28

34 Benardrick McKinney Houston 27

35 Willie Gay KC 22

36 Matt Milano Buffalo 26

37 Mack Wilson Cleveland 22

38 Nick Kwiatkowski LV 27

39 Myles Jack Jax 25

40 AJ Johnson Denver 28

41 Malik Harrison Baltimore 22

42 Jahlani Tavai Detroit 23

43 Dre Greenlaw SF 23

44 Cole Holcomb Washington 24

45 Anthony Walker Indy 25

46 Jerome Baker Miami 24

47 Jordyn Brooks Seattle 22

48 TJ Watt Pittsburgh 25

49 Micah Kiser Rams 25

50 Tahir Whitehead Carolina 30

51 Jatavis Brown Philly 26

52 Jacob Phillips Cleveland 21

53 Troy Dye Minnesota 23

54 Zach Baun NO 23

55 Davion Taylor Philly 22

56 Bobby Okereke Indy 24

57 Foye Olokun Atlanta 25

58 Oren Burks Green Bay 25

59 Reuben Foster Washington 26

60 Jarrad Davis Detroit 24

Edited by MAC_32
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, MAC_32 said:

Rough Draft (not gonna bother w/tiers until at least the next run-through)

Rank Player Team Age

1 Darius Leonard Indy 25

2 Devin Bush Pittsburgh 22

3 Devin White TB 22

4 Cory Littleton LV 26

5 Jaylon Smith Dallas 25

6 Blake Martinez NYG 26

7 Joe Schobert Jax 26

8 Roquan Smith Chicago 23

9 Tremaine Edmonds Buffalo 22

10 Fred Warner SF 23

11 Bobby Wagner Seattle 30

12 Zach Cunningham Houston 25

13 Deion Jones Atlanta 25

14 CJ Mosley Jets 28

15 Patrick Queen Baltimore 21

16 Isaiah Simmons Zona 22

17 Christian Kirksey Green Bay 28

18 Shaq Thompson Carolina 26

19 Lavonte David TB 30

20 Demario Davis NO 31

21 Rashaan Evans Tennessee 24

22 Eric Kendricks Minnesota 28

23 Jamie Collins Detroit 30

24 Jordan Hicks Zona 28

25 Jayon Brown Tennessee 25

26 Kwon Alexander SF 26

27 Todd Davis Denver 28

28 Kenneth Murray LAC 21

29 Logan Wilson Cincinnati 24

30 KJ Wright Seattle 31

31 Leighton Vander Esch Dallas 24

32 Danny Trevathan Chicago 30

33 Anthony Hitchens KC 28

34 Benardrick McKinney Houston 27

35 Willie Gay KC 22

36 Matt Milano Buffalo 26

37 Mack Wilson Cleveland 22

38 Nick Kwiatkowski LV 27

39 Myles Jack Jax 25

40 AJ Johnson Denver 28

41 Malik Harrison Baltimore 22

42 Jahlani Tavai Detroit 23

43 Dre Greenlaw SF 23

44 Cole Holcomb Washington 24

45 Anthony Walker Indy 25

46 Jerome Baker Miami 24

47 Jordyn Brooks Seattle 22

48 TJ Watt Pittsburgh 25

49 Micah Kiser Rams 25

50 Tahir Whitehead Carolina 30

51 Jatavis Brown Philly 26

52 Jacob Phillips Cleveland 21

53 Troy Dye Minnesota 23

54 Zach Baun NO 23

55 Davion Taylor Philly 22

56 Bobby Okereke Indy 24

57 Foye Olokun Atlanta 25

58 Oren Burks Green Bay 25

59 Reuben Foster Washington 26

60 Jarrad Davis Detroit 24

assume this is for balanced or tackle heavy scoring

 

ETA:  Surprised Devin Bush is so high in the rankings.  His usage down the stretch last year has some reason for concern for me.  He wasn't a 3 down LB's for many of those games.  The usage was confusing which is enough to drop him for me at this point until we see how training camp is going.

 

Edited by Gally

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2 minutes ago, Gally said:

assume this is for balanced or tackle heavy scoring

Yes, sorry - thought I wrote it at the top but clearly did not. I'll throw it in there now. One of my league's has more unique scoring and I'd consider Watt a top 25 guy in that format - just for some loose context.

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1 hour ago, Gally said:

Surprised Devin Bush is so high in the rankings.  His usage down the stretch last year has some reason for concern for me.  He wasn't a 3 down LB's for many of those games.  The usage was confusing which is enough to drop him for me at this point until we see how training camp is going.

I think it's important to note occurrences like those, but any reaction is postponed until the offseason. If the team has concerns about putting more on a young player's plate then their actions will show it. And the Steelers whacked Mark Barron then brought no one else in to compete. They clearly aren't concerned, so neither am I. 

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8 minutes ago, MAC_32 said:

I think it's important to note occurrences like those, but any reaction is postponed until the offseason. If the team has concerns about putting more on a young player's plate then their actions will show it. And the Steelers whacked Mark Barron then brought no one else in to compete. They clearly aren't concerned, so neither am I. 

Possibly, but I am not sure it was Barron specifically taking away his play time.  Did they start to use Edmonds as a hybrid for some of that passing down work?  I can't recall other than the usage was very strange down the stretch.  His last 6 games the usage was 62%, 74, 75, 83, 74, 92.  I just think this is a big enough flag that putting him in the top 5 seems ambitious let alone #2.

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3 minutes ago, Gally said:

Possibly, but I am not sure it was Barron specifically taking away his play time.  Did they start to use Edmonds as a hybrid for some of that passing down work?  I can't recall other than the usage was very strange down the stretch.  His last 6 games the usage was 62%, 74, 75, 83, 74, 92.  I just think this is a big enough flag that putting him in the top 5 seems ambitious let alone #2.

I don't think Barron was necessarily taking away his playing time. Although if someone has info to the contrary please share - there's a reason this is a rough draft! I think the Steelers just decided to take a subpackage approach midseason. That's why all of Vince Williams, Bush, and Barron's snap counts varied week-to-week beginning week 10. 

What specifically led to that decision? :shrug: That's why i wanted to see what the Steelers would do this offseason before deciding what to do with Bush. Were they just taking some responsibility off a rookie's plate because they had viable alternatives? or did they have concerns developing about his ability to be the man in the middle to replace Shazier? What they did the last two months just tells me it was because they had alternatives.

I get why someone would rank him as low as the bottom of the top 20. If I were doing just 2020 ranks he probably would not be top 10. I get why someone would look at Bush and see a rookie that lost snaps as last year went on and immediately think 'risk.' But I look at Bush and I see a 22 year old traded up for by a stable org and perennial contender that never trades up that went out of their way to not add competition for him going into year 2...and despite the snap count issues still produced a top 15-20 season. I don't see any risk. Because for me, age matters. And I don't build my teams to be the best team in a particular year. I build my teams, so they are a top 3-5 team every year. Too much luck is involved in winning in December, so my approach is to just maximize my chances of getting there. And I think this is a profile of a top LB for the better part of the next decade.

Given how I approach building my teams you have to make a very compelling case to justify being ranked over ^^^that - Leonard does but Hicks now has to deal with Simmons, Wagner's old, all of Martinez, Schobert, and Littleton are on new teams, Dallas at least intends on Jaylon Smith dealing with LVE, and I don't think the PPG difference is there to go beyond those guys. When I make my tiers I would guess the 2nd one will go from Bush to Edmonds - and the tier is more important than the order with it. But that's my very long winded explanation for why Devin Bush is currently at the top of it.

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I read something quoting Tomlin that they didn't want to put to much on Bush's plate. I agree with your take, MAC, that Barron is gone and hasn't been replaced. Next man up behind Bush is Ulysees Gilbert III, their 6th round pick last year. Vince Williams played 404 snaps last season across 14 games. He's the one coming off in dime. It's hard to envision a scenario in which Bush doesn't play 90+% of snaps this year.

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They drafted a thumper S/LB hybrid though so that's Barron's replacement.

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