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Let's talk Wide Receivers for the 2018 NFL Draft (1 Viewer)

JohnnyU

Footballguy
You have Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, James Washington, Christian Kirk, and Anthony Miller as the best choices (according to me), but we welcome input regarding others not listed here..  I think most dynasty owners will take Sutton first, but after that it gets cloudy.  I personally like James Washington and Anthony Miller.   I know there are other worthy WRs to talk about but here are the few I have time to talk about now.

Courtland Sutton (SMU) has the best size (6'4" 218) of all these WRs and a lot of upside.  62 receptions, 1017 yds, and 12 tds.  There may be some doubt about his ability to separate at the next level and that brings memories of Laquon Treadwell, and his route running needs some work, but he does have plenty of strength to go along with size and will win a lot of jump balls.  No doubt he will make a great red zone target.  Sutton will be the first WR off the board in many dynasty drafts.

Calvin Ridley (Alabama) probably has the highest floor of any WR, but he may have a low ceiling as well.  His numbers this year (55/896/3) don't pop out at you, but there are many factors at play in Alabama.  Their ground game is a beast.  Ridley is the best route runner in the draft and is very smooth, explosive, and fluid.  He doesn't have the best size (6'1" 190), but it isn't terrible either.  Even though he doesn't have the size you want he does track the ball very well down field.   His ability best shows up in space and can start and stop on a dime and score from anywhere on the field.

James Washington (Oklahoma St.) (6'1" 205) doesn't look like your typical star wide receiver.  He's somewhat thick in the lower body  He uses that strength to win contested balls and he makes a lot of big plays down the field.  He has good speed and tracks the ball well.  The knock on Washington is that he needs to improve route running and his ability to read defenses.  He may not be successful right away at the next level, but has the chance to be a stud eventually.  He's one of my favorite receivers in this draft.

Christian Kirk (Texas A&M) is another one of those undersized WRs that dynasty owners don't like and his numbers this year don't look impressive (58/730/7).  However, he has plenty of quickness and speed and runs very good routes.  Even though he lacks in size he has plenty of strength and can out muscle defensive backs for contested balls.  I believe he will have a very successful NFL career because of his ability to run good routes and his quickness and speed.

Anthony Miller (Memphis) is one of my favorite underrated receivers in the draft.  He's a slot WR (5' 11" 190) that makes big plays with his quickness.  His numbers are 92/1407/17.  He's a defensive back's nightmare in space.  He's can score from anywhere on the field.  The thing I like about Miller is that he's not just a gimmick player, he runs very good routes, has strong hands, and has the ability to make the hard catch.  He tracks the ball well downfield.  NFL critics and dynasty FF owners will downgrade him because of his size, but I'll gladly open my arms for him on fantasy draft day.

 
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Like all five you listed, especially Washington, who reminds me a bit of Boldin. I'd add St Brown, Cain, Tate, and Metcalf after those top five as guys I'm keeping an eye on.

 
I'm a fan of Kirk.

His production this year was 110% crappy QB play.  Still looked every bit the real deal when he saw the ball.

 
From what I've seen, Sutton seems much more gifted than Treadwell, who I never liked.
Yeah, I need someone to convince me he will be able to separate from NFL dbs using his strength and football savvy, whereas it doesn't appear Treadwell has that ability, at least not yet.  Also, his route running has come into question.  I want to like Sutton, I really do.  I have the 3rd pick in an upcoming ppr dynasty draft and I will probably be faced with choosing between him and the other WRs, unless he goes 1.2.  I'm very strong at RB, so taking Guice probably isn't in my cards at 1.3.

 
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Like all five you listed, especially Washington, who reminds me a bit of Boldin. I'd add St Brown, Cain, Tate, and Metcalf after those top five as guys I'm keeping an eye on.
St. Brown's stock has dived this year, only 31 receptions, 468 yds, and 4 tds.   I do like Tate however.  Cain is an intriguing pick as well and I see him at the bottom of the first / early 2nd.  Some are / were very high on St. Brown, so I don't know where he will go in dynasty drafts.  I have a feeling it will be all over the place.  Metcalf's stock has gone down as well but I still like his potential.  

Update:  Metcalf is just a sophmore so the jury is still out where he will go in a future draft when he is eligible. 

 
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From what I've seen, Sutton seems much more gifted than Treadwell, who I never liked.
Agreed. Treadwell doesn't seem to know what he's doing out there.

Yeah, I need someone to convince me he will be able to separate from NFL dbs using his strength and football savvy, whereas it doesn't appear Treadwell has that ability, at least not yet.  Also, his route running has come into question.  I want to like Sutton, I really do.  I have the 3rd pick in an upcoming ppr dynasty draft and I will probably be faced with choosing between him and the other WRs, unless he goes 1.2.  I'm very strong at RB, so taking Guice probably isn't in my cards at 1.3.
Man I am right with this. Also strong at RB but if Guice goes somewhere good and he slips to 3, I may take him. Right now I have #3 and #4 and could use WR help. Leaning towards Miller and Kirk just hope they go somewhere good.

Someone is going to SF and I'm probably taking that guy - hoping it's one of these 2.
Someone is going to the Redskins and if they keep Cousins, that is a good pick.
Cards if they draft a QB, the WR drafted is a good pick.
Bears may keep picking WRs but I haven't been sold on Trubisky.
Cowboys will probably take a WR and I am not sold on anyone there getting enough targets.

 
St. Brown's stock has dived this year, only 31 receptions, 468 yds, and 4 tds.   I do like Tate however.  Cain is an intriguing pick as well and I see him at the bottom of the first / early 2nd.  Some are / were very high on St. Brown, so I don't know where he will go in dynasty drafts.  I have a feeling it will be all over the place.  Metcalf's stock has gone down as well but I still like his potential.  

Update:  Metcalf is just a sophmore so the jury is still out where he will go in a future draft when he is eligible. 
the ND offense was very run centric....don't hold it against E.St.B. 

 
the ND offense was very run centric....don't hold it against E.St.B. 
Same reason I don't hold it against Ridley at Alabama.  I must admit I haven't watched or read a lot about St. Brown.   It appears his stock has gone down from what it was during devy drafts last year.   I have no idea how good he will or will not be.  That's why I listen to you guys.  We're all in this together;). I read a lot about players but I miss a few, or don't do enough research on some.  St. Brown is one of those players for me.   In the coming months I plan on paying more attention to St. Brown.

 
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Same reason I don't hold it against Ridley at Alabama.  I must admit I haven't watched or read a lot about St. Brown.   It appears his stock has gone down from what it was during devy drafts last year.   I have no idea how good he will or will not be.  That's why I listen to you guys.  We're all in this together;). I read a lot about players but I miss a few, or don't do enough research on some.  St. Brown is one of those players for me.   In the coming months I plan on paying more attention to St. Brown.
guys like him, I'll wait for the combine and then once drafted, read minicamp reports. That is where you can weed out guys like Treadwell.

 
guys like him, I'll wait for the combine and then once drafted, read minicamp reports. That is where you can weed out guys like Treadwell.
Unfortunately a lot of dynasty owners never weeded him out.  They went solely on the opinions of draft pundits in the main media and lazy rankings by well respected online sites.  A lot of sites basically copied off each other.   I'm not saying he is a bust YET, but I chose not to target him in my dynasty leagues.  I'm in 8 dynasty leagues and I don't own him.

 
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the ND offense was very run centric....don't hold it against E.St.B. 
If you're in my leagues please do. His stock is going to rise before the draft but if he's available late 1st I'm all over that. 

Calling my shot now, an injured local guy who will go late but I'll be keeping an eye out for Richie James. He'll be a slot receiver but in the right offense watch out. 

I know almost nothing about jaleel Scott other than he has good size and plays at a small school (NM St). But I'm intrigued.

 
Great topic Johnny U. Sorry I don't have anything to add. Ridley is the only WR being talked about here that I have seen enough to have much of an opinion about.

I think RIdley will be a very good pro but I will likely grade him as a tier two WR for fantasy.

 
I am generally pessimistic about WR prospects who don't have great college stats - this year that covers Ridley & Kirk. It's not just that they don't have impressive raw totals, it's also that their market share and rate stats haven't been that good.

Calvin Ridley 2017 market share: 37% of receiving yards and 13% of receiving TDs (In 2016: 24% yd & 27% TD. In 2015: 31% yd & 32% TD)
Christian Kirk 2017 market share: 26% of receiving yards and 39% of receiving TDs (In 2016: 28% yd & 36% TD. In 2015: 30% yd & 28% TD)
avg WR who is his team's top receiver: 29% of receiving yards and 29% of receiving TDs
average first round draft pick: 36% of receiving yards and 41% of receiving TDs

And generally you'd expect receivers on run-heavy teams to have more market share, since team offense can keep the defense guessing by mixing together runs along with passes to their top receiver (a pass-heavy offense needs to mix in more passes to other receivers in order to keep the defense guessing).

 
Agreed. Which isn't bad but not Corey Davis. I didn't really like Mike Williams and I consider him equal to Riddler.
Seems right to me. I have Mike Williams as a high tier two WR. I see RIdley being ranked about the same although the skill set of the two WR is pretty different.

 
I am generally pessimistic about WR prospects who don't have great college stats - this year that covers Ridley & Kirk. It's not just that they don't have impressive raw totals, it's also that their market share and rate stats haven't been that good.

Calvin Ridley 2017 market share: 37% of receiving yards and 13% of receiving TDs (In 2016: 24% yd & 27% TD. In 2015: 31% yd & 32% TD)
Christian Kirk 2017 market share: 26% of receiving yards and 39% of receiving TDs (In 2016: 28% yd & 36% TD. In 2015: 30% yd & 28% TD)
avg WR who is his team's top receiver: 29% of receiving yards and 29% of receiving TDs
average first round draft pick: 36% of receiving yards and 41% of receiving TDs

And generally you'd expect receivers on run-heavy teams to have more market share, since team offense can keep the defense guessing by mixing together runs along with passes to their top receiver (a pass-heavy offense needs to mix in more passes to other receivers in order to keep the defense guessing).
Good points and something I will definitely give consideration to when evaluating all these guys next year.

eta - something that I really like about RIdley is his blocking, and that isn't something that really helps a WR for fantasy.

 
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Ridley is my current top receiver in this class and he's not physically imposing (6'1/190 listed), stats are average and he'll turn 24 before end of his rookie season. Again I say he is my number one receiver in this class.

Yes there are some interesting guys in this class for sure, chances are someone emerges at some point as a #1 fantasy type WR but when you draft you don't draft the field and right now I can't pinpoint any of these WR's as guys I'd feel reasonably strong about being a future #1 fantasy WR type.

I think right now people will see Suttons size and try and make him that guy, that guy they think is a future stud, but I'm not there. 

Sitting on some high picks and on some of those teams all things being equal I'd like to be in a position to draft a WR but things are not equal and way I see things now, granted it's early, is I'd just as well take RB(S) even if it's a team strength. 

Things always change back but we are already a few years into a RB revival in fantasy football and I anticipate at minimum a few more years of it. 3 years ago the head and shoulder top prospect was a RB(Elliot) and this will mark two years in a row where the incoming RB talent flat out destroys the WR talent. Add this to a league where WR scoring is already super down last few years from previous years and RB scoring up.

 
I was just speaking generally.
The last two years haven't been that good, although 2016 did have Michael Thomas, Will Fuller and Sterling Shephard. The guys that people didn't expect to be good. Jury still out of Shephard in my view as his efficiency stats have been pretty poor. The WR that people expected to be good, Doctson, Treadwell and Coleman haven't delivered. Still a bit early to turn the page on the 2016 draft class in my view though. The 4 1st round WRs have not really delivered although Fuller has been good when healthy. Tyreek Hill was a 5th round pick who helps the draft class overall.

2015 has turned out worse than expected. White, Parker and Perriman have all disappointed. To a certain extent Cooper has too, especially this year. Stefon Diggs and Jamison Crowder some late pick guys who have emerged though..

Pre and post NFL draft the 2017 class looked weaker to me than the last 3 draft classes before seeing some results. Corey Davis was my only tier one WR from 2017. 

I am grading the receivers a bit more critically now as an adjustment to rating too many of the 2016 WR too highly I think.

No idea what my thoughts on the 2018 WR class will be yet. I haven't really watched any of them yet.

2014 was fantastic. Best group of WRs I have ever seen and most of them have panned out as well.

 
Like all five you listed, especially Washington, who reminds me a bit of Boldin. I'd add St Brown, Cain, Tate, and Metcalf after those top five as guys I'm keeping an eye on.
Agree on Washington I love his game. Metcalf is not eligible until 2019 but I’m a big fan of his potential. IMHO he has the highest ceiling of anyone in this draft or the following year.

Tex

 
Yeah, I need someone to convince me he will be able to separate from NFL dbs using his strength and football savvy, whereas it doesn't appear Treadwell has that ability, at least not yet.  Also, his route running has come into question.  I want to like Sutton, I really do.  I have the 3rd pick in an upcoming ppr dynasty draft and I will probably be faced with choosing between him and the other WRs, unless he goes 1.2.  I'm very strong at RB, so taking Guice probably isn't in my cards at 1.3.
You don’t believe in drafting BPA?

Tex

 
You don’t believe in drafting BPA?

Tex
I don't think Guice is the BPA should he fall to me at 1.3 ( I expect him to go 1.2 in most dynasty drafts).  Go look at my post in the Guice thread.  I noticed something very disturbing about Guice in the video.

 
I don't think Guice is the BPA should he fall to me at 1.3 ( I expect him to go 1.2 in most dynasty drafts).  Go look at my post in the Guice thread.  I noticed something very disturbing about Guice in the video.
I will check it out! Thanks!

Tex

 
I've been more impressed with Miller than any other WR this year.  I think he is going to be a really, really good pro.  Excellent route runner and fights for the ball and usually makes the play in contested situations.

 
I've been more impressed with Miller than any other WR this year.  I think he is going to be a really, really good pro.  Excellent route runner and fights for the ball and usually makes the play in contested situations.
Miller is definitely one of my favorite players in this draft.  He may very well end up having more success than any of the wide receivers in this class.

 
I don't think Guice is the BPA should he fall to me at 1.3 ( I expect him to go 1.2 in most dynasty drafts).  Go look at my post in the Guice thread.  I noticed something very disturbing about Guice in the video.
I have the answered what you’re searching for young grasshopper! 

:wink wink:

Tex

 
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Jordan Lasley (UCLA) and Cody Thompson (Toledo) are two guys to watch. Lasley has faced multiple suspensions but put up huge numbers in the 8 games that he played (he leads the FBS in yards per game). Thompson had a strong 2016, started this season with 4 100-yard games, and then broke his leg week 5.

 
Looking at mock drafts using ones with 3 rounds

Tankathon-Draftsite-Blaster-Draftwire-Walter

Sutton 6-7-22-10-22

Ridley 15-6-12-33-6

Wahington 17-21-29-38-65

Kirk 29-54-37-58-58

Burnett 40-ND-ND-ND-ND

Miller 49-101-69-60-93

Cain 54-ND-ND-53-ND

Gallop 68-75-ND-ND-ND

Cobbs 72-47-ND-86-74

Pettis 96-52-33-83-ND

Wienke ND-67-ND-ND-ND

Calloway ND-81-ND-ND-46

Moore ND-ND-41-ND-ND

Tate ND-ND-ND-86-ND

P. Campbell ND-ND-ND-ND-56

St. Brown ND-ND-ND-ND-57

one other name to mention is Allen Lazard Iowa St. 

 
Jordan Lasley (UCLA) and Cody Thompson (Toledo) are two guys to watch. Lasley has faced multiple suspensions but put up huge numbers in the 8 games that he played (he leads the FBS in yards per game). Thompson had a strong 2016, started this season with 4 100-yard games, and then broke his leg week 5.
Those players should definitely be available in the 3rd and 4th rds of dynasty rookie drafts, so I'll keep them in mind, thanks.

 
I would definitely take Miller over Burnett.  Parris Campbell is someone to keep an eye on.  He's definitely a sleeper in the draft.

 
Unfortunately a lot of dynasty owners never weeded him out.  They went solely on the opinions of draft pundits in the main media and lazy rankings by well respected online sites.  A lot of sites basically copied off each other.   I'm not saying he is a bust YET, but I chose not to target him in my dynasty leagues.  I'm in 8 dynasty leagues and I don't own him.
That's because everyone was weeding out Fuller.  Still not a huge mistake when you consider to date Doctson, Coleman, maybe Shephard, Boyd, Peak, Miller, Cooper, Caroo have been much more disappointment than success.

 
BNB is right that a lot of folks dismissed Fuller because of the drops, which is a problem with him that has carried over to the pro level. There are still a lot of good things about him though despite this. It does make sense that you don't want a WR to drop the football as this is the main skill they need to have. It is something that can set off big alarm bells for me as i worry about receivers being the next Troy Williamson. BUT I think a lot of WR will drop the ball at times and this is something that can get exaggerated too much when evaluating WRs. Amarah Darboh dropped the ball too much in my opinion as well. It is a serious flaw in my view that causes me to downgrade players, but at some point I also have to think that NFL scouts know what they are doing and Fuller was a 1st round pick, of course the flip side of that is Troy "Alligator" Williamson was a 1st round pick as well.

I think it is a bad sign when looking at a WR prospect the most positive trait you can identify about them is blocking and strength. As was the case for Treadwell.

Some said he was a very good route runner and had good hands. He was very good at contested catches. He also had some very good RAC ability in college. Partially from his strength to break tackles after the catch at that level.

In watching him I did see him making some tough catches, However the fact that he didn't gain a lot of separation should have been considered an indication of him not running very good routes. In fact the main type of route I saw him winning on was drag routes across the middle. He didn't really have the speed to take the top of the defense and was mostly used in a possession type role. I regret ranking him as a tier one prospect and I think I let other voices influence me in that decision. So I have tried to learn from that and not repeat the same mistake again.

I do value blocking ability in WRs as I see that being a skill that will make them an asset on early downs and keep them on the field. It isn't a skill that really helps for fantasy however. I bring this up because one of the things I like so much about Ridley is his blocking ability. Not that he doesn't do other things good as well. But blocking should be very low on the list of skills one is looking for in a WR prospect for fantasy.

 
BNB is right that a lot of folks dismissed Fuller because of the drops, which is a problem with him that has carried over to the pro level. There are still a lot of good things about him though despite this. It does make sense that you don't want a WR to drop the football as this is the main skill they need to have. It is something that can set off big alarm bells for me as i worry about receivers being the next Troy Williamson. BUT I think a lot of WR will drop the ball at times and this is something that can get exaggerated too much when evaluating WRs. Amarah Darboh dropped the ball too much in my opinion as well. It is a serious flaw in my view that causes me to downgrade players, but at some point I also have to think that NFL scouts know what they are doing and Fuller was a 1st round pick, of course the flip side of that is Troy "Alligator" Williamson was a 1st round pick as well.

I think it is a bad sign when looking at a WR prospect the most positive trait you can identify about them is blocking and strength. As was the case for Treadwell.

Some said he was a very good route runner and had good hands. He was very good at contested catches. He also had some very good RAC ability in college. Partially from his strength to break tackles after the catch at that level.

In watching him I did see him making some tough catches, However the fact that he didn't gain a lot of separation should have been considered an indication of him not running very good routes. In fact the main type of route I saw him winning on was drag routes across the middle. He didn't really have the speed to take the top of the defense and was mostly used in a possession type role. I regret ranking him as a tier one prospect and I think I let other voices influence me in that decision. So I have tried to learn from that and not repeat the same mistake again.

I do value blocking ability in WRs as I see that being a skill that will make them an asset on early downs and keep them on the field. It isn't a skill that really helps for fantasy however. I bring this up because one of the things I like so much about Ridley is his blocking ability. Not that he doesn't do other things good as well. But blocking should be very low on the list of skills one is looking for in a WR prospect for fantasy.
Aren't we in the same boat with Sutton?

 
Aren't we in the same boat with Sutton?
I don't know. I haven't really watched him yet to form an opinion.

I guess at this point I am just thinking back to past evaluations of receivers and trying to focus on what traits are important before watching the next batch of guys.

 
This thread actually highlights a key point of my overall dynasty draft strategy.  I almost never invest 1st round picks on WRs.  I feel like RB prospects are easier to evaluate as well as their situations at the NFL level.  The last WR I spent a high pick on in dynasty was Julio Jones, because he was just can't miss.  Generally I prefer to draft RBs and then target older WRs in trade (guys like Larry Fitz, Jordy, etc.) after they hit 30 and their dynasty value tanks.  I'll still draft WRs with upside (guys like Golladay) in later rounds.  Now there is a downside to this as well because I will likely never have a young stud like OBJ on my roster but this strategy has served me well over the years. 

 
With this news maybe he will drop to me later in the draft.
Like a Breshard Perriman. I bought huge into his talent. But the red flag injury bug has made him non existent. These type of statements bring me pause now. 

We already know that the draft will impact things. If drafting today, he probably still goes high on recognition. Probably be mid second anyways due to the RB class. 

 
Like a Breshard Perriman. I bought huge into his talent. But the red flag injury bug has made him non existent. These type of statements bring me pause now. 

We already know that the draft will impact things. If drafting today, he probably still goes high on recognition. Probably be mid second anyways due to the RB class. 
I think we need to learn more about his medical issues, but yes, it does throw up red flags.  However, I'm not jumping to conclusion before I know the facts.  Do you have any medical information on Miller?  The article didn't expand on the reason for concern.  I guess we will know more at the combine.

 
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