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Hot Sauce Guy

Who is my playoff QB?

Question

I've been streaming all year since losing a couple QBs early. 

Right now I have 3 QBs on my roster, and all seem like decent floor plays this year. The scoring system is relevant: .1/2 yards passing, 6 pt TDs, -2 per Int. At 300 yards passing there's a ridiculous 10 point bonus, which plays heavily into the decision. So better phrased, the question is: Who is the QB most likely to have 300+ PaYd this week. 

A. Case Keenum: decent matchup at home against a beat-up Cinci D (no Pac Man) 

B. Garapolo at home against a middle of the road Titans D

C. Blake Bortles against the 29th ranked Texans D in a divisional game. 

 

Leaning towards C, as Bortles has been playing really well of late, the game is meaningful & Bortles could rush for a TD as well. Keenum seems the safest, but I worry the Vikes could just run all day on the Bengals 30th ranked rushing defense that's also beat up.  Garapolo in a good matchup at home, but hard to trust and limited weapons. 

Leave a link, will answer yours.

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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Went with Bortles. 

HUGE 1st half. Locked up a LCG spot on Bortles/Hunt. Loving it. 

Thanks for the input folks! :pickle:

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CONCLUSION:  Use the data to hedge your bets or to help tip the scales in a decision. BUT  ultimately pick the guy you're OK  to start, cheer for and lose with without regret.   Is your goal to look brilliant in taking an non-conventional gamble and winning?  What if you lose and it's the deciding factor any regrets?  Is your goal simply to win and get to week 16?    Figure out what you think you need.  Is this the position that you need to outscore your opp by 5pts?  Who gives you best chances to do that.  Reading the thread  w/o researching I was surprised no one was picking Keenum.   After researching  I understand better why people would choose others Bortles or Garrapolo.  People have valid points.   Bortles better rushing and surging passer with weapons. Keenum decent rusher. about 40% less though in production.   Jimmy G doesn't seem to rush really yet.    You can't predict how the game will go.  Passing vs Running plays.   You can try to anticipate opportunities.  30+ pass attempts for your QB should = Xpts.  Right?   If your opponent has WR for these QBs consider using that QB as a tie breaker so pts stay relatively even.  Beat him at another position.  GOODLUCK

 

Argument for Keenum.

i dropped Case Keenum because I was concerned Teddy B. would take over after the Bye week.  Keenum was my QB3 or QB4  in a 2QB superflex league where QBs are at a premium.   I regret dropping him.  The guy has done nothing but play his ### off all year with little to no respect that he's earned the right to be there. Every week he's fighting for his job.   He hasn't played a ton prior to this year.   He's not perfect but he's been going big.   Can CIN put pressure on Keenum like week 14 with 6 sacks?   theilen, diggs. are doing well.   Maybe Rudolph injury is a factor. I don't know.  I respect this guy (as Josh McCown and a host of other players that have outperformed this year). 

300 yard games 2017 = 2. 

0-10pts= 3  games most recently was 7;  10-20pt 2 games, 20-30pt games 4, 30pt games 1, 40pt games 2.   

With 280yds in week 14...Keenum could've broken 300 if not for 5 drops from WRs.   ONe of the INTs was a Diggs drop.   Last 5 weeks scoring in my league:  42, 22,  32, 21, 20

Keenum 19 rusn 79yds 1Td  last 4 weeks. 

 

Argument for Bortles:   

Bortles is playing great lately but hasn't been as consistent as Keenum this year.  What changed recently?  O-Line?  WR?  Him?   I don't know.  

0-10pt games 1.     10-20pt games 6,  week    20+ pt games 4,    30+pt games 2.     300yd games 2. ....recent low was 10pts week 11.  

Last 4 weeks  10pts, 21 pts, 36pts, 25pts.  

Borltes avg yard per game seem to be lower in general.  20/31 for 244  4TD  0 int  week 3 vs BAL  was hit 38pts in my league.   both of his 300+games came against INDy. 

He threw for 51 attempts vs LAC  28/51  273 1TD 2 INt.  18pts in our league.   He's attempted 38 passes once and 35 passes 3 other times.    Are DeDe Westbrook and Keelan Cole the reasons for his recent surge. That's about the time they were coming available.  If the better weapons are the result he maybe go with Bortles.  Dede has played the last 4 weeks.  Cole has played all year but upgraded with Hurns out.  Cole TDs last two weeks.  Bortles 20 rush 91yds 2 tds.  Last 4 weeks. 

 

Argument for Garrapolo:  Read Footballys guys Waldman's Top 10 week 15 #2.   I'm sold on Garrapolo.    Smaller body of work to gauge.  He's had high yardage days as a starter.   There's not much on him.  Does SF offense have weapons?   He went 2/2  18yds 1TD vs Seattle in reserve action.     26/37 293  0/1 int vs CHI.   20/33 334 1Td 1Int.   I think he's an unknown factor. Bigger gamble.     For basic yardage that's good.  But does your scoring reward that better than my league?    Last week he gained 23pts in my league.  That would be a suitable but low expectation for Keenum or Bortles the way they've played.  They're getting multi TDs.  But maybe JimmyG is due?  

 

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Bortles did play really well against the Seahawks, and broke 300 at the colts...but they have the run game and an exceptional defense. They should beat the Texans, and use the run game to burn the clock. Bortles has only eclipsed 300 yards against the colts this season. I agree that the Vikings can and should run against the bengals. Also with the pass defense being similar to the past two weeks, falcons and panthers where he put up 227 and 280 yards, hitting that 300 mark seems far fetched. He shouldnt need. to pass that much to get the win. 

I think Jimmy G has the best chance at 300yards. Jimmy G hit 293 yards against the Bears, and 330 vs the Texans the past two weeks. Looking at a few passing yard projection sites, none of the QBs you mention are supposed to break 300, but Jimmy G is listed as highest passing yards. A counter argument to Jimmy G is that he doesn't not put up great fantasy numbers as a base, so if he didnt reach 300 he doesnt have a lot of points to back you up. 

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1 minute ago, snoochieboochies said:

 A counter argument to Jimmy G is that he doesn't not put up great fantasy numbers as a base, so if he didnt reach 300 he doesnt have a lot of points to back you up. 

That’s my concern. The 300 yards matters. But the floor is important too. 

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14 hours ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

That’s my concern. The 300 yards matters. But the floor is important too. 

If you absolutely need the points to win, swing for the fences with Jimmy G. If you are the favorite then you have the wiggle room to play it safe with bortles. 

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6 hours ago, Saboo said:

I’d go with Bortles. 

Leaning heavily this way. Best balance of ceiling (don’t see Keenum getting 300+, don’t see Garapolo throwing multiple TDs) and floor (Bortles ran for 2 TDs in a game he struggled through the air)

apprexiate everyone’s input! 

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9 minutes ago, Nugget said:

If you have 2 quarterbacks then you have no quarterbacks.

Wat? :confused:

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