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Russell Wilson vs the Rams...Rams seem to give him trouble (1 Viewer)

S

Saboo

Footballguy
Does anyone have even a little concern about rolling Wilson out vs the Rams? The Rams have traditionally given Wilson and the Seahawks trouble...For example, when they played earlier this season Wilson line was not exactly elite...He put up 198 yds passing, 16 yds rushing 1td + 1int.

There are certain matchup’s that on paper look great (Tom Brady in Miami) but just never seem to work out. Wilson has been great, but I am a little nervous about playing him this weekend.

Any thoughts?

 
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Saboo, you're overthinking things man. Russell Wilson and AJ Green are the studs that got you here. Gotta ride them in the playoffs  :drive:

 
I'm thinking about sitting Wilson as well for the reason's you mentioned.  Fortunately I have Cam who is playing at home VS the Packers so I have to take a close look at this option.  Also, something I probably shouldn't consider but it's sticking in the back of my mind - the guy I'm playing is a Packers fan and having Cam light up his team and (basically) knock them out of the playoffs as well as knocking him out of the Fantasy Playoffs seems like an opportunity I don't want to pass up  :D

 
This is the same argument from last week when he was going against the Jags #1 defense.  The over/under for this game is 47.5 with only a 1.5 spread.  

tough matchup or not, don't see how you bench him with how he is playing. He's accounting for over 80% of their offensive yardage.  C'mon.

 
mikel2014 said:
Saboo, you're overthinking things man. Russell Wilson and AJ Green are the studs that got you here. Gotta ride them in the playoffs  :drive:
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Different leagues, but you are right. I have a lot more faith in Wilson than I do in Green...That said, the Rams have given Wilson a lot of trouble.

 
chad in Indy said:
This is the same argument from last week when he was going against the Jags #1 defense.  The over/under for this game is 47.5 with only a 1.5 spread.  

tough matchup or not, don't see how you bench him with how he is playing. He's accounting for over 80% of their offensive yardage.  C'mon.
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I started Wilson last week and no matter the outcome it would have been the correct decision for my team after looking at all my options.  I don't use hindsight to say a decision was right/wrong based on the outcome, but it only worked out because Wilson connected on those two 4th quarter bombs.

I'm going to look at a bunch of data to determine which play seems better to me, just like I did last week.  It might be Wilson again, but I'm going to do the due diligence to make sure Cam isn't a better option for this week.

 
Steeler said:
I started Wilson last week and no matter the outcome it would have been the correct decision for my team after looking at all my options.  I don't use hindsight to say a decision was right/wrong based on the outcome, but it only worked out because Wilson connected on those two 4th quarter bombs.

I'm going to look at a bunch of data to determine which play seems better to me, just like I did last week.  It might be Wilson again, but I'm going to do the due diligence to make sure Cam isn't a better option for this week.
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I hope you see the contradiction in the bold above.  Anyways,    

Cam v. Wilson - both have the same ceiling any given week, but I think Wilson has a much higher floor.

Wilson - only 3 games all year under 20 points (std scoring) and only three duds

Cam -  7 games under 20 points with six of those seven being duds.

Again, Wilson accounts for over 80% (actually I think it's over 85%) of the offensive yards for the team.  There is always risk of a bad game, but the odds are in his favor to continue to perform.  Plus, I just don't think Seattle's defense scares anybody anymore.

 
A bit, yes. But my options are Brees or Jimmy G. Thought about it but can't bench Russell for either of those two.

 
chad in Indy said:
I hope you see the contradiction in the bold above.  Anyways,    

Cam v. Wilson - both have the same ceiling any given week, but I think Wilson has a much higher floor.

Wilson - only 3 games all year under 20 points (std scoring) and only three duds

Cam -  7 games under 20 points with six of those seven being duds.

Again, Wilson accounts for over 80% (actually I think it's over 85%) of the offensive yards for the team.  There is always risk of a bad game, but the odds are in his favor to continue to perform.  Plus, I just don't think Seattle's defense scares anybody anymore.
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Ok. But he's not playing against his own team.

 
Sorry, I don’t get how you could even question Russell in this spot. It’s the playoffs. Unless you have someone better on your roster (doubtful) you roll with him at home. If last week didn’t sell you on him, I give up. You’re overthinking this big time. 

 
jrwall said:
I think he’s mentioning the Seattle defense because there’s a higher likelihood of a shootout based on the defense they are trotting out this week. 
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exactly.  Hawks no longer have the luxury of their defense winning games for them.  What was their strength is now a weakness.  A great compliment for a fantasy QB.

 
chad in Indy said:
exactly.  Hawks no longer have the luxury of their defense winning games for them.  What was their strength is now a weakness.  A great compliment for a fantasy QB.
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Ok. The bigger factor imo anyway is they have no running game. Either way funny bench Wilson.

 
He just had a top 5-6 game against perhaps the toughest D in the NFL. And now he plays at home against a team that scores points and gets in shootouts

He's been the hottest QB the last few weeks in the NFL and he is notorious for hot 2nd 1/2s of the season.

He is probably the one player I would never even consider sitting this time of year.  Ride Him to the finals

 
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Didn't LAR just lose Webster? I think Coleman is going to move to the outside but that has to downgrade their secondary a bit. 

 
Can’t bench him.  Period.  Not after what he did week 14 vs Jax.  He’s the QB1 for fantasy.  Ride or die.  

 
Saboo said:
The Rams have traditionally given Wilson and the Seahawks trouble...For example, when they played earlier this season Wilson line was not exactly elite...He put up 198 yds passing, 16 yds rushing 1td + 1int.
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Using one of my dynasty leagues as an example:

  • 2015: 19.65 points in week 1 at Rams; 26.25 points in week 16 vs. Rams at home
  • 2016: 14.10 points in week 2 at Rams; 24.65 points in week 15 vs. Rams at home
  • 2017: 15.5 points in week 5 at Rams; ? points in week 15 vs. Rams at home
This doesn't show me a trend that concerns me. On top of that, a few other things based on the same league:

  • Since Seattle's bye in week 6, Wilson is averaging 30.6 ppg, which is the #1 ppg average, with a low game score of 21.8 and a high game score of 41.6. In that 8 game span, he finished as a top 5 QB for the week 7 times.
  • He just scored 30.55 points on the road against JAX, the #1 pass defense. In their other 13 games this season, JAX allowed an average of 13.1 ppg to opposing QBs; they haven't played a lot of great QBs, but none of Roethlisberger, Rivers, Goff, or Mariota scored even 20 points.
  • This season, Wilson has averaged 31 ppg at home and 24.9 ppg on the road. He is at home vs. the Rams.
IMO he is unbenchable. I don't see benching him for any QB in any matchup this week.

 
chad in Indy said:
I hope you see the contradiction in the bold above. 
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There is no contradiction, maybe I misspoke.  Had Wilson crapped the bed at JAX I would not have retroactively thought the decision was bad.  And because Wilson had a good game, that doesn't validate the decision for me.  You have to make the best choice based on the information at hand before the game and let the chips fall where they may.

 
I have the same dilemma.  Big Ben vs Wilson.  Over the past 4-5 weeks they have scored nearly identically.  Over the last 4 vs the Pats Ben has thrown for an average of 375 and 2.5 TDs.  Russ is at 242 and 1.5TDs and avg 20 yds rushing for the last 4 vs the Rams. (3 of those are the Jeff Fischer variety)

 
In their first meeting this year at the rams, Wilson was mediocre but the Seattle offense hadn’t yet started their tear.  I do agree that the rams and even the 49ers seem to have Wilson’s number.  

But he’s so hot rt now and the Seattle offense is just clicking on all cylinders.   You can’t bench him.  Not even for Roethlisberger.  IMO.  

 
A general rule of thumb... Always play your studs in the FF playoff especially when their teams are in playoff hunt.   Beside, Wilson historically play well at home and during late season. 

 
He's the #1 player in fantasy right now. No way he finds his way to my bench, regardless of who he's playing against. If I lose starting the #1 player in fantasy, then it probably wasn't in the cards for me this week anyways.

Starting him with confidence over Rodgers.

 
Aznflyer14 said:
A general rule of thumb... Always play your studs in the FF playoff especially when their teams are in playoff hunt.   Beside, Wilson historically play well at home and during late season. 
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Even when they have sucked all year? ala Evans

 
Magic_Man said:
Even when they have sucked all year? ala Evans
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Well, it is known to have a several exceptions to the rule on starting stud players in the playoffs.  Evans' maddeningly consistency of terrible production is major surprising but I think it's due to his QBs and Buccaneers' "predictable" offense. 

Russell Wilson accounts for at least 95% of Seahawks' offense, which indicated that he is THE offense.

 
I’m struggling with starting Wilson due to his history vs the Rams. I don’t subscribe to the “blindly start your studs” narrative. Week to week, matchups are a fluid situation, and these need to be seriously considered. I’ll most likely end up having to roll with him due to lack of another elite option, but it won’t be without hesitation.

 
This isn’t revisionist history, but I think tonight’s game can serve as an example of how a QB’s history of struggles vs a particular team  can outweigh their recent productivity. Rivers had been very solid for the past 5 games and hadn’t thrown an interception since week 10, then he throws 3 tonight. KC just seems to have had his number a majority of their games. Many that started Rivers tonight will be behind the 8 ball no doubt. Wilson struggles vs the Rams almost every game. Add the fact that it’s supposed to be rainy and windy during Seattle’s game tomorrow and I’m definitely looking for possible options. I have Dak on my bench, would anyone start him over Wilson now? I’m clearly overthinking this, but this is obviously “win or go home” time, not “ride the horse that brought you” time.

 
KaeptainAmerica said:
This isn’t revisionist history, but I think tonight’s game can serve as an example of how a QB’s history of struggles vs a particular team  can outweigh their recent productivity. Rivers had been very solid for the past 5 games and hadn’t thrown an interception since week 10, then he throws 3 tonight. KC just seems to have had his number a majority of their games. Many that started Rivers tonight will be behind the 8 ball no doubt. Wilson struggles vs the Rams almost every game. Add the fact that it’s supposed to be rainy and windy during Seattle’s game tomorrow and I’m definitely looking for possible options. I have Dak on my bench, would anyone start him over Wilson now? I’m clearly overthinking this, but this is obviously “win or go home” time, not “ride the horse that brought you” time.
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No we wouldn't start Dak on the road vs Wilson at home vs the Rams.  -Signed Everybody 

 
I have to start him. Lost Wentz. Wilson is my ride or die. He’s scoring at least 3 TDs and rushing for 75 yards. It’s a  :IBTL:

 
I'm starting him over Cam.  I looked at everything and although Cam has the far better match up on paper Wilson is just performing at much higher level that Cam at the moment.  So even if Wilson is going to produce 90% of his current rate it's still better that 110% of Cam's current output (percentages may or may not have been made up ;) ).

Also, I read somewhere that SEA and LAR are two of the fasted teams in terms or seconds per play which means there is likely going to be more plays for both teams on offense - more plays equals more opportunity for stats (duh).  Also, LAR lost K. Webster for the year last week so their secondary is weakened.  Another important factor is that SEA D is even more banged up with KJ Wright (doubtful) and B. Wagner (questionable).  All this leads to a potentially high scoring game so I'm definitely not benching him this week.

 
Are people saying the weather is bad there? I'm using him in one league no matter what due to his rushing ability but I'm rally nervous about Baldwin who did nothing against them last time....

 
Kwai Chang Caine said:
Are people saying the weather is bad there? I'm using him in one league no matter what due to his rushing ability but I'm rally nervous about Baldwin who did nothing against them last time....
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I have Baldwin too but I'm benching him due to lack of targets week to week.  I can live with it of he blows up on my bench because at least Wilson will benefit from it if he does go off.

 
Steeler said:
I have Baldwin too but I'm benching him due to lack of targets week to week.  I can live with it of he blows up on my bench because at least Wilson will benefit from it if he does go off.
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I can use Gordon. But I have a baaaaddd feeling about him. I'm also already in a big hole thanks to Rivers and Allen last night. Ugh....

 
Steeler said:
I'm starting him over Cam.  I looked at everything and although Cam has the far better match up on paper Wilson is just performing at much higher level that Cam at the moment.  So even if Wilson is going to produce 90% of his current rate it's still better that 110% of Cam's current output (percentages may or may not have been made up ;) ).

Also, I read somewhere that SEA and LAR are two of the fasted teams in terms or seconds per play which means there is likely going to be more plays for both teams on offense - more plays equals more opportunity for stats (duh).  Also, LAR lost K. Webster for the year last week so their secondary is weakened.  Another important factor is that SEA D is even more banged up with KJ Wright (doubtful) and B. Wagner (questionable).  All this leads to a potentially high scoring game so I'm definitely not benching him this week.
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Thanks a lot! Being that I’m bipolar, I’m somehow back on the Wilson train!  ;)  

Its going to come down to the highly scientific “eenie meenie miney mo”.

 
Steeler said:
I have Baldwin too but I'm benching him due to lack of targets week to week.  I can live with it of he blows up on my bench because at least Wilson will benefit from it if he does go off.
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Meh - 50% chance of rain. 

Seattle is pretty used to playing in the rain. 

I’m rolling with both - I just read that the Rams have struggled with big plays across the middle and that’s where Baldwin lives and breathes. 

8/110/2 coming up!  :pickle:

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Meh - 50% chance of rain. 

Seattle is pretty used to playing in the rain. 

I’m rolling with both - I just read that the Rams have struggled with big plays across the middle and that’s where Baldwin lives and breathes. 

8/110/2 coming up!  :pickle:
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Yeah, I'm not worried about the rain at all... worried about him getting 5 targets and winding up with 40 yards.

 
Steeler said:
Yeah, I'm not worried about the rain at all... worried about him getting 5 targets and winding up with 40 yards.
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Nah - he was targeted deep 3x last week. Sure, two ended up being Ints, but that’s against a much much better D.

Baldwin catches at least 1 TD over 20 yards today. Take that to the bank &  :IBTL: it up! 

(I just like using the little dancing lock emoji in a positive way) 

 
LAUNCH said:
I have the same dilemma.  Big Ben vs Wilson.  Over the past 4-5 weeks they have scored nearly identically.  Over the last 4 vs the Pats Ben has thrown for an average of 375 and 2.5 TDs.  Russ is at 242 and 1.5TDs and avg 20 yds rushing for the last 4 vs the Rams. (3 of those are the Jeff Fischer variety)
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So far, so good.

 
So far Wilson over Cam is not working out  :pokey:   :topcat:

I need LAR to keep scoring so Wilson will have to throw the ball.

:ptts:

 
Steeler said:
I'm starting him over Cam.  I looked at everything and although Cam has the far better match up on paper Wilson is just performing at much higher level that Cam at the moment.  So even if Wilson is going to produce 90% of his current rate it's still better that 110% of Cam's current output (percentages may or may not have been made up ;) ).

Also, I read somewhere that SEA and LAR are two of the fasted teams in terms or seconds per play which means there is likely going to be more plays for both teams on offense - more plays equals more opportunity for stats (duh).  Also, LAR lost K. Webster for the year last week so their secondary is weakened.  Another important factor is that SEA D is even more banged up with KJ Wright (doubtful) and B. Wagner (questionable).  All this leads to a potentially high scoring game so I'm definitely not benching him this week.
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200% of Cam is better than 30% of Wison :kicksrock:  There is always next year!

:ptts:

 
Well he did me in and I lost by literally 1 pt.   But he’s also who got me to week 15 so I can’t complain too much.  Have a great offseason guys!!  

 
Friggin Wilson & Baldwin - I am losing my playoff game by 35, and my opponent & I both have 2 left to play. 

In other words, if not for an historic CHOKE job by Baldwin & Wilson both, I'd have a solid shot at advancing to the LCG in my IDP league.  One TD to Baldwin and I'm right in it. 

Realistically I am competing for either $75 or $50 (3rd or 4th place) next weekend.  Thanks Seahawks - this is why I hate you. :angry:   I actually hate myself more for trusting y'all in a critical must-win matchup at home against a divisional rival. Shameful performance. 

 
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