Galileo

FanDuel Week 16

75 posts in this topic

Some Initial interest...

QB: Wilson, Newton, Rivers, Stafford,   on the cheap...Kizer, Stanton

RB: Zeke, Ingram/Kamara, Gurley, Freemen, Howard   on the cheap... White, Stewart, Duke/Crowell, Barber

WR:  M. Thomas, Allen, Fitz, M. Jones/Tate, AJG , Cooks, Baldwin  on the cheap...Sanu, Cole/Westbrook, Matthews

TE: Gronk, Kelce, Walker  on the cheap...Ebron, Seals-Jones, Does CHI have a TE???

DEF:  CHI, CAR, JAX   cheap...KC, CLE, CIN

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12 hours ago, Galileo said:

Some Initial interest...

QB: Wilson, Newton, Rivers, Stafford,   on the cheap...Kizer, Stanton

RB: Zeke, Ingram/Kamara, Gurley, Freemen, Howard   on the cheap... White, Stewart, Duke/Crowell, Barber

WR:  M. Thomas, Allen, Fitz, M. Jones/Tate, AJG , Cooks, Baldwin  on the cheap...Sanu, Cole/Westbrook, Matthews

TE: Gronk, Kelce, Walker  on the cheap...Ebron, Seals-Jones, Does CHI have a TE???

DEF:  CHI, CAR, JAX   cheap...KC, CLE, CIN

As far as cheaper TE guys, with injuries Gates and Brate might be worth exploring. 

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28 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

As far as cheaper TE guys, with injuries Gates and Brate might be worth exploring. 

Good call...forgot about Henry's injury...not excited about the Carolina match up for Brate

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Took off from last week - needed a break, been very busy with other stuff. 

Early cash L/U: QB/Stafford, RB/McCaffrey - Freeman, WR/M. Thomas - Fitzgerald - R. Woods, TE/Walker, K/Hopkins, DEF/KC

         GPP #1: QB/Goff, RB/Gordon - Freeman, WR/M. Thomas - R. Woods - Sanu, TE/Walker, K/Lutz, DEF/KC

 

Curious if anyone has any thoughts on something I noticed in the IVC: DAL's DEF, at the minimum price of $4K, has an H-Value rating of 21.6. Pretty good for a minimum-priced DEF, considering that they're playing SEA & the highest-priced QB this week. What's the attraction? 

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22 hours ago, Galileo said:

Good call...forgot about Henry's injury...not excited about the Carolina match up for Brate

Just brought them up b/c they are cheap (Gates is min priced and Brate is 5.1) and they are both BFFs with their QBs.  Neither matchup is great, but if it gets me a couple of stud RBs, I might look that direction.  

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Speaking of 4.5K, anybody going to look at Gillislee for min priced vs his old team if he is active on Sunday?  :oldunsure:  

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10 hours ago, reel_smooth said:

Took off from last week - needed a break, been very busy with other stuff. 

Early cash L/U: QB/Stafford, RB/McCaffrey - Freeman, WR/M. Thomas - Fitzgerald - R. Woods, TE/Walker, K/Hopkins, DEF/KC

         GPP #1: QB/Goff, RB/Gordon - Freeman, WR/M. Thomas - R. Woods - Sanu, TE/Walker, K/Lutz, DEF/KC

 

Curious if anyone has any thoughts on something I noticed in the IVC: DAL's DEF, at the minimum price of $4K, has an H-Value rating of 21.6. Pretty good for a minimum-priced DEF, considering that they're playing SEA & the highest-priced QB this week. What's the attraction? 

Probably the 7 or so sacks Wilson gave up last week, but Dallas D isn't the Rams D.  It is tempting to use them this week.  Right now I have a cash LU where I used min priced Gates and fit in Cam/Gurley/Hunt/M.Thomas and only had 4.4K left for a Defense.  I will have to stare at this more.  I think there is some good WR value this week, so I am leaning towards going high priced QB + 2 high priced RBs right now.  

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Since there is no Thurs matchup to potentially fade/exploit, is there anything worth considering between the Main Slate and the Sun-Mon slate this week? 

Does Philly clinch home field if Minny loses in GB Saturday night?

With Brown being out, the Sun-Mon people are going to flock to Bell I'd assume.  You'd almost have to play him in cash.

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On ‎12‎/‎19‎/‎2017 at 10:41 PM, Galileo said:

 Does CHI have a TE???

 

A.Shaheen. 

He actually had a couple decent games and got hurt.  He has 2 LP this week so far, so it might be worth looking to see if he is good to go for Sunday as another punt option.  Not sure why I am so fixated on cheap TEs this week.  

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5 minutes ago, Bobcat10 said:

Since there is no Thurs matchup to potentially fade/exploit, is there anything worth considering between the Main Slate and the Sun-Mon slate this week? 

Does Philly clinch home field if Minny loses in GB Saturday night?

With Brown being out, the Sun-Mon people are going to flock to Bell I'd assume.  You'd almost have to play him in cash.

I think the Sun-Mon LUs will be big on Bell, JuJu, Foles, and maybe a couple of the Philly guys like Ertz and Jeffrey.  

I agree that you probably have to do Bell in cash if you are going that route, but I might do gpps without him and go with Ben + JuJu, Bryant, and/or James.  

This is probably the last week with most starters going, so I think I am going to dabble more in the 2 game slates for fun too.  I have a couple Mon-Sat gpps out there, but I was going to look at the Saturday only too.  

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I guess I don't now how to think of the ownership.  I assume it's like the Thurs - Mon  vs the main slates in that most people are playing them to get some Thurs night guys and/or Monday night guys in there.  That said, I am usually surprised at the low ownership on players in the MNF games when I play that slate and load up on that game, so I am not sure what to think of the Monday players this week.  Pitts players are always highly owned, but some pieces of the Philly game might go underowned b/c there are more to choose from.  

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5 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Speaking of 4.5K, anybody going to look at Gillislee for min priced vs his old team if he is active on Sunday?  :oldunsure:  

No

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4 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Probably the 7 or so sacks Wilson gave up last week, but Dallas D isn't the Rams D.  It is tempting to use them this week.  Right now I have a cash LU where I used min priced Gates and fit in Cam/Gurley/Hunt/M.Thomas and only had 4.4K left for a Defense.  I will have to stare at this more.  I think there is some good WR value this week, so I am leaning towards going high priced QB + 2 high priced RBs right now.  

That's a heck of a core.  I agree with you on WR values, the problem, as always, is picking the right ones!

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22 minutes ago, Galileo said:

That's a heck of a core.  I agree with you on WR values, the problem, as always, is picking the right ones!

That's a problem with most wrs.

I have been narrowing down by targets and injuries so guys like Westbrook, Landry, and Woods really stand out under 7k. 

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4 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

That's a problem with most wrs.

I have been narrowing down by targets and injuries so guys like Westbrook, Landry, and Woods really stand out under 7k. 

I just threw together a line up with Westbrook and Landry...didn't use Woods because I already had Gurley in there

Kizer - Gurley/Zeke - M. Thomas/Landry/Westbrook - Gates - Butker - JAX

 

Kizer scares the hell out of me though

Edited by Galileo

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18 minutes ago, Galileo said:

I just threw together a line up with Westbrook and Landry...didn't use Woods because I already had Gurley in there

Kizer - Gurley/Zeke - M. Thomas/Landry/Westbrook - Gates - Butker - JAX

 

Kizer scares the hell out of me though

What does dropping down at D and going up at Qb get you? 

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8 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

What does dropping down at D and going up at Qb get you? 

I thought about that as I was typing it out, but haven't explored yet.  I will have more time later tonight to look at it... can probably save a couple hundred at K spot too if needed

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14 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

What does dropping down at D and going up at Qb get you? 

Drop to CHI (4.8k)...  opens up guys like Taylor, Mariota, Winston, Cousins

Drop to NE (4.6k)... opens up Ryan, Goff, Bortles and Prescott

Drop to KC (4.5k)... opens up Smith

Drop to DAL (4k)... opens up Newton and Rivers  :D

 

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7 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Drop to CHI (4.8k)...  opens up guys like Taylor, Mariota, Winston, Cousins

Drop to NE (4.6k)... opens up Ryan, Goff, Bortles and Prescott

Drop to KC (4.5k)... opens up Smith

Drop to DAL (4k)... opens up Newton and Rivers  :D

 

The other thing I was staring at was going Hunt/Zeke instead of Gurley and that would save a few hundred $ too.  Not sure.  I will probably look at this later tonight, as I haven't had time to do my usual lists.  

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Just looked at some % projections quick and I see White and D.Lewis higher than Ingram and Kamara?  Sign me up for the NO Rbs in gpps.  

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For me, this keeps pointing as a week to pay up at Rb, at least for cash.  It looks like all the 8K+ guys have good situations but nobody is without Qs.  One problem I run into is that I like guys on the same team: Hunt/Kelce, Woods/Gurley, NO rbs/M.Thomas

Right now I am leaning towards Hunt, Zeke, and Gurley for cash  with Gordon, NO rbs, left as gpp pivots.  

I like Freeman's price, but I wonder about his role now that Coleman has cleared concussion protocol.  None of the sub-7K guys I am in love with this week.  If I go this route K.Williams, Mixon, Riddick, CJ Anderson were the ones that stood out.  

 

IF I went down at Rb to Freeman, I had a balanced LU that looked like this:  Cam - Zeke/Freeman - Evans/Woods/Landry - Kelce - Gano - Dallas.  There's that Dallas D again.  

Otherwise I had (again with that punt Dallas D):  Cam - Hunt/Zeke - M.Thomas/Evans/Woods - Gates - Gano - Dallas.    Going down to Westbrook over Woods and down to a 4.7K PK would get Gurley in the LU over Hunt or Zeke.  

Fun week as usual.  

 

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For those playing some action on Mon, James did stand out on my list for TEs.  There were 2 that had 10+ RZ targets on the year, and had good matchups vs. teams that were at the bottom for DVOA, points allowed to position and averaging at least 5 targets/game.  James and Kelce.  He will go low owned as people load up on Bell and JuJu, but could be a good gpp pivot option.  

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I have been busy with work and kids, so not much time this week.  A few quick notes, on the main slate, may be all I have time for this week.  I am not using Wilson or Brady this week.  I just like the cheaper options better.  I think the RB pool is very deep this week.  Gordon, Elliott, and McCoy are my favorite three RB options this week.  I think Lewis and Howard are both under valued.  I also think if you need savings Theo and Mixon are both reasonable options.  I am not using Fournette.  I see a lot of value at WR.  I like Hill, Cooks, Gordon, Baldwin, and few others around $7200.  My favorite play at WR is Marvin Jones Jr, coming back to Cincy, and torching an injury depleted defense that has completely mailed it in.  I am spreading my TE options, depending on the money I have left.  I made eight lineups and used 8 TEs, ranging from 5100-8400.  I may narrow it more, but I did not use Engram or Graham.  Mixed and matched my defense too and didn't use anyone all that unique.  I settled on the $4800 set of kickers.  Good luck to everyone and have a Merry Christmas.

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On 12/19/2017 at 8:41 PM, Galileo said:

Some Initial interest...

QB: Wilson, Newton, Rivers, Stafford,   on the cheap...Kizer, Stanton

RB: Zeke, Ingram/Kamara, Gurley, Freemen, Howard   on the cheap... White, Stewart, Duke/Crowell, Barber

WR:  M. Thomas, Allen, Fitz, M. Jones/Tate, AJG , Cooks, Baldwin  on the cheap...Sanu, Cole/Westbrook, Matthews

TE: Gronk, Kelce, Walker  on the cheap...Ebron, Seals-Jones, Does CHI have a TE???

DEF:  CHI, CAR, JAX   cheap...KC, CLE, CIN

I like almost all of these.

I'm staying away from Stafford though. No evidence, just a bad feeling that Cincy shows up here.

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Anyone want to talk me into Jimmy Graham?

I have him in zero of my 11 tournament lineups, but he could bounce back big this week.

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An idea I like for big field gpps is going with 3-4 high priced pass catchers and filling in RBs last.  I think with the focus on all the stud RBs, that will be a lower % gpp construction this week.  

A placeholder gpp I just threw together was:  Winston - Riddick/CJA - K.Allen/Baldwin/Evans - Gronk - Gould - Chicago.  

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6 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

Anyone want to talk me into Jimmy Graham?

I have him in zero of my 11 tournament lineups, but he could bounce back big this week.

@jdoggydogg

Here would be points for starting him:  Most RZ targets of any pass catcher on the year - TE or WR, will be low owned since Kelce is just 200 more, Dallas is 11th is FD pts/g to TEs over the last 6 weeks.  

Points against:  he has sucked the last few weeks with 5 targets and 0 RZ targets over the last 2 games.  

IMO a perfect gpp play, but I honestly don't know what the lack of production the last few are from- matchups, injuries, change in O philosophy, they need him to block since the OL sucks?  Also might depend on if S.Lee is playing for Dallas.  

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13 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

@jdoggydogg

Here would be points for starting him:  Most RZ targets of any pass catcher on the year - TE or WR, will be low owned since Kelce is just 200 more, Dallas is 11th is FD pts/g to TEs over the last 6 weeks.  

Points against:  he has sucked the last few weeks with 5 targets and 0 RZ targets over the last 2 games.  

IMO a perfect gpp play, but I honestly don't know what the lack of production the last few are from- matchups, injuries, change in O philosophy, they need him to block since the OL sucks?  Also might depend on if S.Lee is playing for Dallas.  

Well said.

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Guys I'm owning on at least a couple of tournament lineups this week:

Russel Wilson, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, Latavius Murray, Dion Lewis, Jordan Howard, CJ Anderson, Larry Fitzgerald, Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, Deandre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, Demarius Thomas, Zach Ertz, Antonio Gates, Delanie Walker

Guys I'm fading due to bad matchups or just a bad feeling:

Alex Smith, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, Leonard Fournette, Carlos Hyde, Lesean McCoy, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Brandin Cooks

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3 hours ago, jdoggydogg said:

Guys I'm owning on at least a couple of tournament lineups this week:

Russel Wilson, Cam Newton, Philip Rivers, Latavius Murray, Dion Lewis, Jordan Howard, CJ Anderson, Larry Fitzgerald, Ju Ju Smith-Schuster, Deandre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, Demarius Thomas, Zach Ertz, Antonio Gates, Delanie Walker

Guys I'm fading due to bad matchups or just a bad feeling:

Alex Smith, Matt Ryan, Drew Brees, Matt Stafford, Leonard Fournette, Carlos Hyde, Lesean McCoy, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Brandin Cooks

I agree with a lot of both lists.  I think the ones I don't love are Wilson (only b/c of his price), Howard (SO script dependant).  

My eye keeps going back to Winston and Evans.  It's a team that doesn't have anything to play for, but Car has been leaking points to WRs for quite some time.  The big ding is that it looks like D.Jax is out along with Howard so he has less options, but he looked decent last game.  Evans at 7K seems really low.  

I also keep going back to Goff as well.  Tenn is a bit of a pass funnel D and Gurley can have a big game through the air for us too.  Don't mind him + Gurley or him + Woods (or all 3).  

Det and Cin have two of the worst (if not the two worst) rush Ds, so I also keep looking at Riddick and Mixon if they are a go (both at 6.1K).

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The FBGs podcast had an interesting point that I didn't know - IF Atl can pull off a win, I guess both Seattle and Dallas are out of the playoff hunt and they would know that before the game starts.  It could really take the wind out of that game if neither team has anything to play for vs. them playing an elimination between each other.  

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23 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I agree with a lot of both lists.  I think the ones I don't love are Wilson (only b/c of his price), Howard (SO script dependant).  

My eye keeps going back to Winston and Evans.  It's a team that doesn't have anything to play for, but Car has been leaking points to WRs for quite some time.  The big ding is that it looks like D.Jax is out along with Howard so he has less options, but he looked decent last game.  Evans at 7K seems really low.  

I also keep going back to Goff as well.  Tenn is a bit of a pass funnel D and Gurley can have a big game through the air for us too.  Don't mind him + Gurley or him + Woods (or all 3).  

Det and Cin have two of the worst (if not the two worst) rush Ds, so I also keep looking at Riddick and Mixon if they are a go (both at 6.1K).

This is a good observation.

I am scared of Evans, but Winston has been good. I think I'll stack Evans, Brate and Winston in one of my lineups.

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19 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

The FBGs podcast had an interesting point that I didn't know - IF Atl can pull off a win, I guess both Seattle and Dallas are out of the playoff hunt and they would know that before the game starts.  It could really take the wind out of that game if neither team has anything to play for vs. them playing an elimination between each other.  

I think New Orleans will beat Atlanta by 10, but anything's possible.

Two arguments against this narrative: 1) Seattle got embarrassed last week. Playoffs or no playoffs, I think Seattle is hungry and angry either way. 2) I think Zeke could get 200 yards combined and two TDs no matter what Dallas does. I am fading Dak, but I think Zeke has a huge game.

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6 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

I think New Orleans will beat Atlanta by 10, but anything's possible.

Two arguments against this narrative: 1) Seattle got embarrassed last week. Playoffs or no playoffs, I think Seattle is hungry and angry either way. 2) I think Zeke could get 200 yards combined and two TDs no matter what Dallas does. I am fading Dak, but I think Zeke has a huge game.

They did say they thought Zeke would be the one that wouldn't be effected.   That said, isn't Dallas OL a bit banged up too? It might not matter with how banged up Seattle is too. 

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14 minutes ago, jdoggydogg said:

This is a good observation.

I am scared of Evans, but Winston has been good. I think I'll stack Evans, Brate and Winston in one of my lineups.

One podcast brought up Godwin for TB as a 4.5k gpp dart in that game.  

Also brought up in podcasts for dirt cheap were K.Bibbs with Perine dinged and E.Penny vs the Giants since K.Will looks hurt too. 

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Something else that was pointed out in at least one of those pod casts is that Elliott coming back actually enhances Prescott. Not going to fade him at all, although, I'm not going to have a lot of exposure to him either. If ATL losses, I also think that Dez Bryant will be in play, at $7,100. Running him out w/ a Wilson/Baldwin stack. Also trotting out a Prescott/Elliott stack, running it back w/ Baldwin.

Finally settled on this for a cash L/U: QB/Newton, RB/Elliott - Freeman, WR/M. Thomas - R. Woods - K. Cole, TE/Kelce, K/Gano, DEF/KC

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7 minutes ago, reel_smooth said:

Something else that was pointed out in at least one of those pod casts is that Elliott coming back actually enhances Prescott. Not going to fade him at all, although, I'm not going to have a lot of exposure to him either. If ATL losses, I also think that Dez Bryant will be in play, at $7,100. Running him out w/ a Wilson/Baldwin stack. Also trotting out a Prescott/Elliott stack, running it back w/ Baldwin.

Finally settled on this for a cash L/U: QB/Newton, RB/Elliott - Freeman, WR/M. Thomas - R. Woods - K. Cole, TE/Kelce, K/Gano, DEF/KC

I've been on Thomas as well, but the hamstring reports are concerning.  Guys with hammy problems can line up to play and a couple plays in they are felling it and end up on the pine.

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2 hours ago, reel_smooth said:

Something else that was pointed out in at least one of those pod casts is that Elliott coming back actually enhances Prescott. Not going to fade him at all, although, I'm not going to have a lot of exposure to him either. If ATL losses, I also think that Dez Bryant will be in play, at $7,100. Running him out w/ a Wilson/Baldwin stack. Also trotting out a Prescott/Elliott stack, running it back w/ Baldwin.

Finally settled on this for a cash L/U: QB/Newton, RB/Elliott - Freeman, WR/M. Thomas - R. Woods - K. Cole, TE/Kelce, K/Gano, DEF/KC

I like it, and I think the bolded will be VERY popular plays in cash, and I think right now I have a LU with all but Woods ( I think I have Evans instead?).  

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2 hours ago, Galileo said:

I've been on Thomas as well, but the hamstring reports are concerning.  Guys with hammy problems can line up to play and a couple plays in they are felling it and end up on the pine.

Maybe you are confusing him with Julio who seems to take himself out of every game when I play him.  ;)

 

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On 12/22/2017 at 1:09 PM, FatNate said:

I have been busy with work and kids, so not much time this week.  A few quick notes, on the main slate, may be all I have time for this week.  I am not using Wilson or Brady this week.  I just like the cheaper options better.  I think the RB pool is very deep this week.  Gordon, Elliott, and McCoy are my favorite three RB options this week.  I think Lewis and Howard are both under valued.  I also think if you need savings Theo and Mixon are both reasonable options.  I am not using Fournette.  I see a lot of value at WR.  I like Hill, Cooks, Gordon, Baldwin, and few others around $7200.  My favorite play at WR is Marvin Jones Jr, coming back to Cincy, and torching an injury depleted defense that has completely mailed it in.  I am spreading my TE options, depending on the money I have left.  I made eight lineups and used 8 TEs, ranging from 5100-8400.  I may narrow it more, but I did not use Engram or Graham.  Mixed and matched my defense too and didn't use anyone all that unique.  I settled on the $4800 set of kickers.  Good luck to everyone and have a Merry Christmas.

I did put together one Russell and one Brady lineup, but went without Elliott in both. In general, I am all in on Cam!

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