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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Courtland Sutton, Broncos

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1 hour ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I meant I would sell at that price because he asked me specifically.

Most people have goggles on when it comes to crazy girlfriends and players on their fantasy rosters. IOW people are too high on Sutton, if they have him.

 

So 700+ yds and 16.7 ypc as a rookie with Keenum throwing to him means he’s equivalent to a midround 2nd in 2019?  Seems like your valuation may be as off as what you are charging Sutton owners with.

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3 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

So 700+ yds and 16.7 ypc as a rookie with Keenum throwing to him means he’s equivalent to a midround 2nd in 2019?  Seems like your valuation may be as off as what you are charging Sutton owners with.

🤷‍♂️ The mid 2nd is the LOWEST I'd go. And then I'd wait until after the draft to take that deal.

But Flacco is no upgrade. 

As to the bolded... One side is going to be wrong. I certainly consider the possibility it might be me.

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7 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

🤷‍♂️ The mid 2nd is the LOWEST I'd go. And then I'd wait until after the draft to take that deal.

But Flacco is no upgrade. 

As to the bolded... One side is going to be wrong. I certainly consider the possibility it might be me.

 

Understood and the candor is appreciated.

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FYI was able to close the deal for a projected non playoff 2020 1st (IMO top 4 or 5 pick. His team finished 2nd last in 2018) + 1.9 for Sutton and a lower mid 2020 2nd.

I'm happy with the trade. I have a particular player/position to target for 1.9 and I hold 1.3 where I plan to replace Sutton with a wr, and I'm already sitting fairly young and deep at wr. Sutton was looking like my wr4/5 at best unless he took a major leap this year 

Pretty happy with the deal. Especially considering 2020 is looking great, and Sutton cost me 1.11 originally. 

I own him in another league yet. I may sell if the price is right 

Edited by Dr. Dan
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6 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Who has the bigger breakout this year Sutton or A. Miller? 

Having traded away Sutton and not Miller, I have a strong preference.  But if I was laying a wager I'd say both disappoint this season.

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14 minutes ago, Arodin said:

Having traded away Sutton and not Miller, I have a strong preference.  But if I was laying a wager I'd say both disappoint this season.

I had both as well. I like Millers situation a lot better, but I agree both probably fall short of expectations in 19

Edited by Dr. Dan

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11 minutes ago, ffmail4me said:

Who has the bigger breakout this year Sutton or A. Miller? 

I like Miller from a talent perspective. Not sure Trubisky ever turns into Peyton Manning and that offense seems to spread it around to a lot of different targets. On the positive he scored 7 TDS in limited time as he played injured the majority of the year.

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19 hours ago, King of the Jungle said:

I project him as a becoming a big number two.

Shine that turd

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21 hours ago, Faust said:

Full disclosure:

I own Sutton in my primary league after using a late first round rookie pick on him last year, so I am holding out on some cautious optimism that he will take a second year leap forward. I wouldn’t sell him for a second round pick in this year’s draft class. 

I don't own him anywhere but would easily pay a second for him (I'd dip into the late first even)  - unfortunately it seems the people in my leagues are not as reactionary as some people on this board. When you take a rookie WR you have to show some patience.

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7 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

I don't want to be the "can I be in your league" guy, but who is trading Sutton for only a 2nd? 

People that think stats sometimes don't tell everything, suspect Sutton might not thrive as "the guy", and believe the wr crop is deep this year.

Oh, and probably play in IDP dynasty leagues.

Edited by Andy Dufresne

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12 minutes ago, Jello_Biafra said:

I don't want to be the "can I be in your league" guy, but who is trading Sutton for only a 2nd? 

Better answer than above: No one 

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Selling Sutton for ANY 2nd is a real gamble. I think people are forgetting it can take WRs a couple years to get going.

I'm a buyer of Sutton (within reason). I guess I'd consider something like @Dr. Dan got, but it's going to take a really good deal for me to give up on Sutton's upside.

Edited by Football Jones

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Keenum was an especially poor fit for Sutton with his pop gun arm.

Flacco isn't a world-beater, but he can wing it downfield & give Sutton a chance to win contested balls.

Edited by Football Jones
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Today on the Fan here in Denver, it was reported that Sutton is already telling reporters that he's the #1.  It actually could happen as it's no guarantee they're going to keep Sanders at this point.

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8 hours ago, kittenmittens said:

He's saying the right things.  I'm hoping he is one of those OTA darlings that gets everyone excited and generates positive hype stories with quotes raving about him every few days.. 

like last year?

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I made him my last keeper at $8 (12-team league, $200 cap, can protect up to 10 people on a 20-player roster) because I hope he'll step up and become a solid #3 fantasy WR, but also because he was a cheap option and I may need to buy someone better if he stinks up the preseason...

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I love his talent but unfortunately he landed in a terrible spot. They still have no one to throw the ball to him and they didn't fix that in this draft. He should improve but with who they draft this year we can't expect his QB situation to get any better for a while. Sucks for him. 

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2 hours ago, Milkman said:

I love his talent but unfortunately he landed in a terrible spot. They still have no one to throw the ball to him and they didn't fix that in this draft. He should improve but with who they draft this year we can't expect his QB situation to get any better for a while. Sucks for him. 

I thought the skillset of Flacco/Lock was better suited for a type like Sutton? At least they will throw deep more (and better) than Keenum.

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When the Bronco's got Flacco Vegas immediately moved their SB odds "down". 

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I think Lock has the potential to feed him well. Lock may not turn out to be a great QB but I think he'll chuck it around and target the outside WRs quite a bit.

 

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2 minutes ago, Apple Juice said:

I think Lock has the potential to feed him well. Lock may not turn out to be a great QB but I think he'll chuck it around and target the outside WRs quite a bit.

So you’re talking about 2021 when Flacco is gone?

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17 minutes ago, tangfoot said:

So you’re talking about 2021 when Flacco is gone?

I don't think Flacco will be terrible like most people do, but I think the wheels will come off down the stretch like they did last year in Baltimore. Wouldn't surprise me if the situation plays out the same, with Flacco starting and playing okay in the first half, and then either due to injury or poor play being replaced by the rookie in the second half. I'd be very surprised if Lock doesn't take over at some point this season.

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Brett Rypien has a real shot at winning that job in the next couple years. I think Sutton can be a WR2 with any of the QBs but that is likely his ceiling.

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Courtland Sutton has been working on his route-running with Anquan Boldin this offseason.

Additionally, Sutton returned to Florida to train with Tony Villani, who worked with Sutton before the draft last year. This time around, Sutton is trying to work on his speed and technique, using both Villani and Boldin's services. Sutton wants to be a bigger factor in the red zone. Boldin is extremely familiar with Sutton's new quarterback after playing with Joe Flacco in Baltimore.

SOURCE: The Athletic

May 24, 2019, 11:29 AM ET

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On 5/22/2019 at 4:05 PM, Milkman said:

When the Bronco's got Flacco Vegas immediately moved their SB odds "down". 

And?  

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On 5/22/2019 at 5:05 PM, Milkman said:

When the Bronco's got Flacco Vegas immediately moved their SB odds "down". 

So what?  I don't care if DEN goes to the SB.  I care about Flacco throwing it to Sutton.

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Not sure which I love seeing more - young WRs with elite traits and enough desire to bust their asses in the offseason trying to get better, or FFers who give up on those kinds of guys because they posted solid numbers but didn’t somehow become FF WR1s in their first season in the league.  Lots of opportunity and upside in both scenarios.

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2 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

Not sure which I love seeing more - young WRs with elite traits and enough desire to bust their asses in the offseason trying to get better, or FFers who give up on those kinds of guys because they posted solid numbers but didn’t somehow become FF WR1s in their first season in the league.  Lots of opportunity and upside in both scenarios.

I still think he can be pretty good. wr1 maybe not, but that's more due to the future of his qb play than his own abilities. 

I did trade him in one league because it was amazing value: what ended up being AJ Brown (similar upside as sutton IMO) and 2020 1st, which is the front runner for 1.1

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He is going to get targets. Not sure how good his floor will be with a few question marks looming, but he would *seem* to be the #1 WR there. Sanders could be Sanders again but I doubt it. Hamilton could be a very good buy low himself. Lindsay/Freeman/Fant round out what could be an underrated offense. But young, untested, and with Flacco at QB. Sutton floor is murky right now but ceiling sure looks nice. 

I think one big fear is that anytime there is an inseason transition from vet QB to rookie or young QB waiting in the wings, it tends to be rocky. I could see these guys starting the season strong and then teams adjust, Flacco struggles, the call gets intense for Lock, and more questions arise leading to the fantasy playoffs.

Sutton is a guy I am probably going to grab in almost every redraft and best ball because he is so cheap. I own him in one dynasty and am holding for sure. 

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He is going towards the end of the 7th in MFL bestballs. I got him in an FFPC startup at 7.08 as WR24. 

Edited by barackdhouse
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Notes from Broncos minicamp, Day 2

Excerpts:

Quote

Finally, at the end of practice, Flacco was able to buy enough time in the pocket and scan the field well enough to cap a 30-yard touchdown march by finding Courtland Sutton in the back of the end zone. Flacco looked left, right, then left, then back to the right again, keeping his eyes on the end zone while moving his feet to buy time for Sutton, who eventually flashed open to Flacco's right.

 

Quote

Practice ended with the afore-mentioned Flacco-to-Sutton connection, but another touchdown -- 50-yard deep touchdown strike for the pair -- was perhaps the highlight of the day for the offense.

 

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Great chance Sutton becomes the #1WR

Quote

9News' Mike Klis believes there is a "great chance" of Courtland Sutton becoming the Broncos No. 1 receiver.

Sutton even said so himself. "I'm excited going into this season knowing that I am going to get to be the No. 1 and I’ll get all of the looks and all of the pressure." If Emmanuel Sanders misses time or isn't near his old form, Sutton and slot receiver DaeSean Hamilton will have opportunity to take second-year leaps. Coach Vic Fangio is "expecting big things" from Sutton, who averaged 8.4 yards per target as a rookie. Joe Flacco's ability to throw the deep ball will be a factor in if Sutton can breakout.

 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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I can't get to excited with Flacco and then Drew Lock coming in to start in a year or two throwing to him. It really caps Sutton's upside. He's obviously very talented but there's lots of talented guys stuck in terrible spots in the NFL........

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5 minutes ago, Milkman said:

I can't get to excited with Flacco and then Drew Lock coming in to start in a year or two throwing to him. It really caps Sutton's upside. He's obviously very talented but there's lots of talented guys stuck in terrible spots in the NFL........

I think Flacco works to Suttons strengths, as does Lock. I don't see Lock as an elite qb, but a lot of fantasy wr1s and high end wr2s dont have elite QBs or have produced quite well with poor QBs. Sutton had a pretty solid year as a rookie and Keenum throwing the ball. 

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13 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

I think Flacco works to Suttons strengths, as does Lock. I don't see Lock as an elite qb, but a lot of fantasy wr1s and high end wr2s dont have elite QBs or have produced quite well with poor QBs. Sutton had a pretty solid year as a rookie and Keenum throwing the ball. 

It's more the exception to the rule though. I love Sutton and I think he has a chance to be an elite option. I'd just temper expectations a little considering how bad Lock is going to be. 

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On 4/27/2018 at 6:13 PM, Milkman said:

Terrible landing spot. Behind two established vets and a #### QB. Won't do anything for 2-3 years. Oh well. 

Still applies unfortunately. Mid-low end WR2 is nice though.....and that's not doing nothing but he could be so much more. 

Edited by Milkman

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I’m surprised his adp is pretty reasonable for redraft. I expected him to have more buzz- but maybe that will come in a month. 

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Courtland finished his rookie year with 42/704/4 on 84 targets, for a 50% catch rate, while averaging 16.8 YPC.  Now he has Flacco throwing to him, so can we expect his catch % to increase or decrease?  A quick look at Flacco's career shows that his deep threat WR's are typically in the high 40's to low 50's, so 50% seems reasonable for 2019.  I've read in this thread that Flacco is a better deep passer than Keenum, but I think he is just willing to throw more of them, which will benefit Sutton.  So, for me, the only question is how many targets?  I think he will lead all DEN WR's with somewhere around 115.  I'll throw out a projection of 60/960/7.

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