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Dynasty & Redraft: WR Calvin Ridley, Falcons

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Wednesday Walkthroughs: Which 2018 NFL Draft prospects scare you?

Excerpt:

Paul Noonan: WR Calvin Ridley, Alabama

I saw @Peter_Bukowski making similar points on twitter the other day, and I just can’t get past Ridley’s age. I could if he were some kind of physically imposing monster, but he simply isn’t, and while I guess I understand why he’s the consensus top receiver in the draft, I wouldn’t touch him with a ten foot pole unless he plummets. There are so many things about Ridley that just scream “old guy dominating kids” and age matters a ton with prospects. First of all, his stats don’t blow anyone away, and he averaged just 10.7 and 11.7 yards per reception as a freshman and sophomore for Alabama. You can excuse that in a lot of ways, but he’s old now, and he was old for his level then too, and it’s not as if he wasn’t being targeted. In fact, his junior (final) season where he did jump up to 15.3 yards per reception, he was actually targeted less than in previous seasons.

Alabama isn’t a passing juggernaut, but the good thing about playing offense for the Tide is that you never have to face their defense, and the rest of the SEC isn’t exactly a murderer’s row of great defensive play. His final year was impressive, but how impressive would it look if we wasn’t a known, heralded prospect? He didn’t crack 1000 yards, scored only 5 TDs. He lit up Mississippi State and Mercer, but did nothing against Auburn, Clemson, and Georgia. 

Ridley is just 6-1, and under 200 pounds, and he’s essentially the same age or older than Tyreek Hill (23) Sterling Shepherd (23), JuJu Smith-SChuster (21), Amari Cooper (23), and Duvin Funchess (23). He is basically only a year younger than Allen Robinson. Davante Adams and Ridley both have late December birthdays. This year, Adams will celebrate his 26th birthday and 5th season in the NFL while Ridley celebrates his 24th birthday just as his rookie year comes to a close. Given that it often takes receivers a few years to put it all together, there just isn’t enough value there for a first rounder.

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1 hour ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

Ouch.  24 yr old rail thin rookie WR.  pass.

190 lbs at 6' isn't rail thin.

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37 minutes ago, Dr. Octopus said:

190 lbs at 6' isn't rail thin.

For an NFL WR it is.  Also he's older so doubt he naturally fills out more.  He could put on weight but that would likely hurt his speed/agility.

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30 minutes ago, Rhythmdoctor said:

Said it before and I’ll say it again...I’ll be avoiding Ridley in dynasty. 

I think he drops to the point he becomes a value for a few years. If I were to bet, he'll be the top rookie wr this year.

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Alabama WR Calvin Ridley ran the 40-yard dash in 4.43 seconds at the NFL Scouting Combine.

Ridley (6'0/189) is considered by many to be the top receiver in this draft class and he put on a show with his 40-yard dash, then followed that up with a sharp performance in his routes during subsequent on-field throwing drills. Not all was gumdrops and rainbows for Ridley, though. While he aced his big run, his jumps were rather pedestrian at 31 inches (vertical) and 110 inches (broad). Ridley ranks as the No. 2 wideout on the position board of Rotoworld's Thor Nystrom, though our CFB guru is something of a man on an island with that opinion.

Source: NFL.com

Mar 3 - 2:05 PM

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2 hours ago, Faust said:

His top comparisons

Herb Haygood - 86.6%

Laverneus Coles - 85.9%

Talman Gardner - 81%

O.J. Murdoch - 79.9%

Jeris McIntire - 79.8%

Guess if he ends up like Coles he could eventually have a little value.  Laverneus played in the league for awhile.  Was never great but serviceable.

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29 minutes ago, -OZ- said:
37 minutes ago, ILUVBEER99 said:

His top comparisons

Herb Haygood - 86.6%

Laverneus Coles - 85.9%

Talman Gardner - 81%

O.J. Murdoch - 79.9%

Jeris McIntire - 79.8%

Guess if he ends up like Coles he could eventually have a little value.  Laverneus played in the league for awhile.  Was never great but serviceable.

Comps of measurables really don't mean much. I think Stephen Hill and Breshad Perriman combine measurables comped to Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas.

I trust the tape and my eyes way more. 

Edited by doowain
The mobile quote editing functionality sucks
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21 minutes ago, doowain said:

Comps of measurables really don't mean much. I think Stephen Hill and Breshad Perriman combine measurables comped to Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas.

I trust the tape and my eyes way more. 

Exactly my thoughts.  When will people learn that the combine is like snake oil.  The truth is in the tape, not the scripted, t-shirt olympics.  

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37 minutes ago, doowain said:

Comps of measurables really don't mean much. I think Stephen Hill and Breshad Perriman combine measurables comped to Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas.

I trust the tape and my eyes way more. 

Completely agreed. I just find it funny that people put this much time / analysis into these comps. 

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42 minutes ago, doowain said:

Comps of measurables really don't mean much. I think Stephen Hill and Breshad Perriman combine measurables comped to Calvin Johnson and Demaryius Thomas.

I trust the tape and my eyes way more. 

he's obviously a better prospect than those comps.  He should be solid but doesn't look like an elite WR prospect.  More of a WR2 in the NFL. 900-1,000/6-8 TD a season type guy.

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Of the current top 10 ranked dynasty WRs, 7 of them had fewer college receptions than Ridley, 6 had fewer college receiving yards than Ridley, and 6 had fewer college TDs than Ridley.

There are plenty of reasons to doubt Ridley at the next level.  The production angle is silly though.  Especially given the dreck he had at QB.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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5 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Of the current top 10 ranked dynasty WRs, 7 of them had fewer college receptions than Ridley, 6 had fewer college receiving yards than Ridley, and 6 had fewer college TDs than Ridley.

There are plenty of reasons to doubt Ridley at the next level.  The production angle is silly though.  Especially given the dreck he had at QB.

Agreed to a point. He's also played in more games than most of these guys. 3 year starter and, correct me if I'm wrong, Alabama has played an extra game every year of his career. 

How does he compare on a per game basis or just their best year? 

I'm not worried about Ridley, like many I just question his upside.  

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4 hours ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Of the current top 10 ranked dynasty WRs, 7 of them had fewer college receptions than Ridley, 6 had fewer college receiving yards than Ridley, and 6 had fewer college TDs than Ridley.

There are plenty of reasons to doubt Ridley at the next level.  The production angle is silly though.  Especially given the dreck he had at QB.

You make a good arguement. What I would like to see is better production in spite of the qb. Couple that with age and smallish stature and I’ll pass. Maybe it’s “doctson” recency bias. I don’t see room for growth, but I think he could be what cooper Kupp is in the right situation, does that make him top 5? Kupp is another guy I like but don’t expect the numbers to get better and better as he was an older more refined player coming out of college. When I watched Ridley I came away unimpressed, but you’ve compelled me to take another look. I’m not drafting in a position where I’d take him (or have the need where I do) and I could very well be wrong about him. Maybe he can turn out golden Tate numbers for 6-7 years. Then the question is where does he go. I’m not sure the landing spots for top WRs are all that great either. 

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Calvin Ridley's SPARQ-x and combine didn't make him a less inetersting prospect, it just highlighted exactly what kind of outlier he'd have to be to succed in the NFL. I may not buy into SPARQ-x but I do enjoy historical comps.

https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970199975492714497

 

I found 30 WRs since 2000 that had a SPARQ-x score below 99, like Ridley's 98.7, 10 names seemed significantly more fantasy relevant then the others, all had over 1000 yards in the first 3 years of their NFL career.

https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970201530602319872

 

Of those 10, 3 came into the league in 2014, a class that continues to throw off trends and inflates outlier numbers. only 3 managed 800 receiving yards in their first year and 1 (Amendola) never has.

https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970207645155168256

 

Calvin Ridley's best comp becomes a 1/30 outlier in a 10-year sample - who worked hard (with Russel Wilson!) to make it 4 years after he was entered the league...Ridley might be a stretch in the 2nd/3rd rd of rookie drafts, right now.

https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970214660648693760

 

Just a good twitter thread overall on Calvin

 

 

This doesn't help either:

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXY1PO_UMAAfeo7.jpg:large

 

Calvin Ridley produced a profile that has not been selected in the first round in at least 20 years.

https://twitter.com/JoshNorris/status/970286133337841664

Edited by zeeshan2

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43 minutes ago, zeeshan2 said:

Calvin Ridley's SPARQ-x and combine didn't make him a less inetersting prospect, it just highlighted exactly what kind of outlier he'd have to be to succed in the NFL. I may not buy into SPARQ-x but I do enjoy historical comps.

https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970199975492714497

 

I found 30 WRs since 2000 that had a SPARQ-x score below 99, like Ridley's 98.7, 10 names seemed significantly more fantasy relevant then the others, all had over 1000 yards in the first 3 years of their NFL career.

https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970201530602319872

 

Of those 10, 3 came into the league in 2014, a class that continues to throw off trends and inflates outlier numbers. only 3 managed 800 receiving yards in their first year and 1 (Amendola) never has.

https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970207645155168256

 

Calvin Ridley's best comp becomes a 1/30 outlier in a 10-year sample - who worked hard (with Russel Wilson!) to make it 4 years after he was entered the league...Ridley might be a stretch in the 2nd/3rd rd of rookie drafts, right now.

https://twitter.com/pahowdy/status/970214660648693760

 

Just a good twitter thread overall on Calvin

 

 

This doesn't help either:

 

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DXY1PO_UMAAfeo7.jpg:large

Sparq-x is fun but given the metric's own creator mentioned that it's a pretty poor predictor for NFL success at WR (by far the lowest of any predictive field he measured), I'm not really sure how useful it is.

 

Quote

Calvin Ridley produced a profile that has not been selected in the first round in at least 20 years.

https://twitter.com/JoshNorris/status/970286133337841664

It will be interesting to see if that actually knocks him out of the first round or not, given that NFL draft round is more than 6x more predictive than Sparq score for NFL success.

I'm not huge on Ridley and I get that he grades poorly in most of the metrics that have correlation to NFL success.  But I think some of it is overblown.  He grades worst in the least predictive of those categories (Sparq-x).  His breakout age was high but was as early as it could have been because it was the first year he played.  His college dominator is low but was good his freshman year and regressed hugely this year when nearly 30% of Alabama's raw passing stats came from their backup QB in garbage time when RIdley and the other starters were taking the rest of the day off.

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Alabama WR Calvin Ridley did not take part in athletic testing during the school pro day on Wednesday.

Ridley (6'0/189) did take part in on-field drills, but he's standing on the testing numbers he posted at the NFL Scouting Combine. That might not have been the best play for the wideout. Outside of a fast 40-yard dash of 4.43 seconds, Ridley was one of the more disappointing performers in Indianapolis over the weekend. He finished with a composite athletic testing score in just the 7th percentile of NFL players. We were more/less sold on the Alabama wideout as a Day 1 pick one week ago. That's no longer the case.

Source: Bleacher Report 

Mar 7 - 5:34 PM

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On 3/5/2018 at 9:30 AM, FreeBaGeL said:

His college dominator is low but was good his freshman year and regressed hugely this year when nearly 30% of Alabama's raw passing stats came from their backup QB in garbage time when RIdley and the other starters were taking the rest of the day off.

That's a good point in favor of Ridley, although it looks like it was more like 1/6 of Alabama's passing production that came from Tagovailoa in garbage time (with the other 5/6 coming from either Hurts, or from Tagovailoa in the national championship game).

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1 hour ago, ZWK said:

That's a good point in favor of Ridley, although it looks like it was more like 1/6 of Alabama's passing production that came from Tagovailoa in garbage time (with the other 5/6 coming from either Hurts, or from Tagovailoa in the national championship game).

Also worth noting with Ridley's splits that 75% of his production came in the 1st half, speculatively because he probably sat out a lot of minutes in the 2nd half. 

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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Alabama WR Calvin Ridley said of his poor vertical and broad jumps from the NFL Scouting Combine, "I don't get into a receiver stance and broad jump before I run a route."

Ridley (6'0/189) did admit that he feels it was a mistake to take part in jumps at the combine -- both his 31-inch vertical and 110-inch broad were subpar, particularly the latter one -- but said that whichever team drafts him is "getting a great player." He did not re-jump during Bama's pro day on Wednesday. We'd just point out that Ridley's criticism of the combine tests (that they aren't related to football) overlooks completely the actual point of combine testing, which is more about gauging a player's athletic ability in trying to help determine their future projection. Just because Ridley does not jump out of his routes does not mean the broad jump is therefor completely meaningless in trying to determine how Ridley fits athletically in the NFL.

Source: NFL.com

Mar 7 - 7:59 PM

 

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Alabama WR Calvin Ridley will visit the Cowboys prior to the 2018 NFL Draft.

This visit certainly makes sense. The Cowboys have an obvious need at wide receiver, both as a second pass catcher and possible No. 1 option with Dez Bryant's time in Dallas possibly running out. Ridley is an easy evaluation from the standpoint of creating separation and sustaining it. He's not going to consistently when in contested situations and his athletic testing was very poor, but Ridley has clear winning areas.

Source: Bobby Belt on Twitter 

Mar 20 - 10:18 AM

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NFL.com Associate Fantasy Writer and Editor Matt Harman believes Alabama WR Calvin Ridley is similar to former NFL WR Greg Jennings.

Harmon said that comparing Ridley to another wide receiver was difficult, because while he generates separation on his routes and gets open, he doesn't appear to be terribly athletic and tested poorly at the combine. "On the surface, he shares some similarities with current Eagles slot receiver Nelson Agholor, but his outside-route acumen lands him a Greg Jennings comparison," writes Harmon. "Jennings was both a reliable and big-play target for a pair of elite Packers quarterbacks, and Ridley should earn a passer's trust in a similar fashion."

Source: NFL.com

Mar 26 - 7:02 PM

 

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Yeah the more I look into Ridley, the less I like. Crossing him off my lists 

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If I need a wr3/flex for this year I like Ridley if he’s in a Kupp type role. I view them as very similar- tacticians that produce early but probably have less of a ceiling or room to grow. A Kendall Wright that may be better than Kendall Wright. I’ve been off the bandwagon all year but now that his value is lower I actually like him more. I don’t think he’s a #1 wr in the nfl. 

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13 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

If I need a wr3/flex for this year I like Ridley if he’s in a Kupp type role. I view them as very similar- tacticians that produce early but probably have less of a ceiling or room to grow. A Kendall Wright that may be better than Kendall Wright. I’ve been off the bandwagon all year but now that his value is lower I actually like him more. I don’t think he’s a #1 wr in the nfl. 

That's pretty close to my view. Good player, will help a team, but unless he gets drafted into a perfect situation like Jennings or Edelman, I just don't see stardom. Kupp is a decent comp.

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38 minutes ago, -OZ- said:

That's pretty close to my view. Good player, will help a team, but unless he gets drafted into a perfect situation like Jennings or Edelman, I just don't see stardom. Kupp is a decent comp.

 

53 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

If I need a wr3/flex for this year I like Ridley if he’s in a Kupp type role. I view them as very similar- tacticians that produce early but probably have less of a ceiling or room to grow. A Kendall Wright that may be better than Kendall Wright. I’ve been off the bandwagon all year but now that his value is lower I actually like him more. I don’t think he’s a #1 wr in the nfl. 

The problem is that to get Ridley on your team I think you will be paying WR2 prices in most leagues. Maybe I’m wrong? I agree though, no way I’m touching him as anything but a desperation flex 

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9 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

 

The problem is that to get Ridley on your team I think you will be paying WR2 prices in most leagues. Maybe I’m wrong? I agree though, no way I’m touching him as anything but a desperation flex 

Yeah even for a late 1st you can probably land a guy like DT, jones/Tate, maybe alshon, someone who be a reliable wr2. If he falls into the early/mid 2nd he’d be a value- I could see 8-10 rbs and it’s not out of the question that Sutton, Moore, Kirk, Gallup, Washington, st Brown, get picked before him, or at least s few. There could be a te that lands in a “premium” spot (Bal? Again?) and could move to the late 1st. Never know what happens. 

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3 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Yeah even for a late 1st you can probably land a guy like DT, jones/Tate, maybe alshon, someone who be a reliable wr2. If he falls into the early/mid 2nd he’d be a value- I could see 8-10 rbs and it’s not out of the question that Sutton, Moore, Kirk, Gallup, Washington, st Brown, get picked before him, or at least s few. There could be a te that lands in a “premium” spot (Bal? Again?) and could move to the late 1st. Never know what happens. 

He'll be the first or second drafted WR in the NFL draft and most PPR drafts. So in that sense, put me on record as saying it is out of the question he falls to round two.

 

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1 hour ago, menobrown said:

He'll be the first or second drafted WR in the NFL draft and most PPR drafts. So in that sense, put me on record as saying it is out of the question he falls to round two.

 

He might be the odd rookie receiver who presents better value in redraft than dynasty. I took him back in February at pick 108, WR 45 (redraft) But I also won't be taking him in a rookie draft until the 2nd which means I won't be taking him.

Edited by -OZ-

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ESPN's Mel Kiper expects Alabama WR Calvin Ridley to get drafted late in the first round.

"Remember, they were talking about [Ridley] No. 8 to Chicago, maybe to Arizona at 15, Baltimore at 16 – it wouldn’t be a surprise if he went in the middle of the first, but I’m thinking more in that 20-32 range." Ridley underwhelmed at the NFL Scouting Combine with a 31-inch vertical, 110-inch broad jump, and SPARQ in the 30th-percentile among receivers. The Ravens are still looking to add youth to play alongside free agent acquisitions Michael Crabtree and John Brown, but D.J. Moore appears to have surpassed Ridley at this point.

Source: Garrett Downing 

Apr 1 - 1:50 PM

 

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This guys smells like yet another 1st WR bust.  I get the feeling he won his battles in college because of his maturity over the younger DBs he was up against, using guile to hide his lack of superior athletic ability.  That is going to change quickly in the NFL, where even if his technique continues to shine that the physical mismatch with starting CBs who also know the book on WR tricks will overcome any advantage that may give him.

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I just can't buy into the "he'll be better once he's away from Alabama" line. The same thing was said about Ardarius Stewart. :shrug:

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48 minutes ago, Andy Dufresne said:

I just can't buy into the "he'll be better once he's away from Alabama" line. The same thing was said about Ardarius Stewart. :shrug:

And Julio Jones. 

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2 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

This guys smells like yet another 1st WR bust.  I get the feeling he won his battles in college because of his maturity over the younger DBs he was up against, using guile to hide his lack of superior athletic ability.  That is going to change quickly in the NFL, where even if his technique continues to shine that the physical mismatch with starting CBs who also know the book on WR tricks will overcome any advantage that may give him.

Ridley broke out in his freshman year at the age of 20.  Not as ideal as an 18 year old doing when younger then opposing DBs, but it's not like he was particularly older than them either.  At age 20 he was old for a freshman, but not old for a college football player.

This isn't a case like Kevin White where he came in and looked lost when he was the same age as everyone else, then finally started dominating when he was the oldest guy left.  Ridley was dominating out of the gate at age 20, playing against guys who were on par with him in age.  He broke out when he was as old as a junior, not when he was as old as a 2nd year NFL player.

Edited by FreeBaGeL
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12 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

Ridley broke out in his freshman year at the age of 20.  Not as ideal as an 18 year old doing when younger then opposing DBs, but it's not like he was particularly older than them either.  At age 20 he was old for a freshman, but not old for a college football player.

This isn't a case like Kevin White where he came in and looked lost when he was the same age as everyone else, then finally started dominating when he was the oldest guy left.  Ridley was dominating out of the gate at age 20, playing against guys who were on par with him in age.  He broke out when he was as old as a junior, not when he was as old as a 2nd year NFL player.

 

If he’s 24 now - which he is - how was it that he was 20 in 2015?  He was older as a freshman than a lot of the guys he was playing against.

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49 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

If he’s 24 now - which he is - how was it that he was 20 in 2015?  He was older as a freshman than a lot of the guys he was playing against.

Ridley will be 24 Dec 20, 2018.  He's 23 right now.

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1 minute ago, JohnnyU said:

Ridley will be 24 Dec 20, 2018.  He's 23 right now.

 

Yep, you are correct and I was wrong.  That’s what I get for not double checking.  He was still old as a freshman and was 21 when he played in his first bowl game.  That’s significant, IMO.  I can state with certainty my 20 yr old self would have schooled my 18 yr old self badly.

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