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WR Calvin Ridley, TEN (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Faust
- Start date
what more were people expecting with Julio still there?
The Frankman
Footballguy
Stunned he only had 4 targets.
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The Frankman
Footballguy
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bicycle_seat_sniffer
Smells like chicken
saw on Twitter hes done for the year
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Calvin Ridley finished 2018 as the 27th WR overall despite missing 3 games.
As mentioned in the above post one can only see Ridleys second season in the league as him making progress, with possibly more progress yet to come although I think his upside is always limited with Julio taking more of the opportunities.
If we pro rate the 3 games he missed at the end of the 2019 season he was on pace for 114 targets 78 receptions 1066 yards 8.6 TD 2 rushing attempts 34 yards which is 236 fantasy points.
This is similar to Tyler Lockett, Jarvis Landry or Bobby Woods last season.
WR 12 in PPR leagues have averaged 241 points over the last 3 seasons. So he is within striking range of that despite Julio.
Continues to be the thorn in the side of market share and break out age truthers.
As mentioned in the above post one can only see Ridleys second season in the league as him making progress, with possibly more progress yet to come although I think his upside is always limited with Julio taking more of the opportunities.
If we pro rate the 3 games he missed at the end of the 2019 season he was on pace for 114 targets 78 receptions 1066 yards 8.6 TD 2 rushing attempts 34 yards which is 236 fantasy points.
This is similar to Tyler Lockett, Jarvis Landry or Bobby Woods last season.
WR 12 in PPR leagues have averaged 241 points over the last 3 seasons. So he is within striking range of that despite Julio.
Continues to be the thorn in the side of market share and break out age truthers.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Why would I need to do that? The averages are the same each year. Yes missed games applicable to all players.
Mike Evans missed 3 games and a couple other top WR missed one game. Most of the top 24 played 16.
Well as far as I can tell about 40% of the top 12 WR from 2020 do not meet at lest one of the criteria.
Based on break out age Michael Thomas, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, Kenny Golliday, Calvin Ridley, Terry McClaurin, John Brown, were all 23 years old or older as rookies.
I don't know if your sample is including John Brown for example who went to a small school and had issues getting started with his career.
If the players only need to meet one of the criteria to be counted by you I think you casting a pretty wide net as far as being able to excuse the player for not meeting one of the categories in how you are counting them.
In my opinion such an analysis would be stronger with a 3rd data point (like NFL draft position) but I would only call hits as players who met all 3 categories, not just one of them.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yeah Cooper Kupp is great in any time frame or dissection of his game.
All I did was look at the top 24 WR from 2019 (yes thats what I meant, I have just typed 2020 a lot lately) and looked at their age as a rookie.
The guys I listed were 23 or older as rookies. There is nothing out of date about that. Now with the college performance you can say they broke out at an earlier age even though they were old relatively speaking for their rookie seasons.
I kind of don't understand why Calvin Ridley doesn't meet the break out age criteria anyways. He had 89 receptions 1045 yards and 7 TD as a freshman, his age 21 season.
It tells me there is something wrong with how these things are cut off and partitioned.
That is pretty impressive if triangulating these 3 data points gets you to a -place that is more predictive than the NFL draft. Of course it should as it has the strength of that data plus these other two metrics.
All I did was look at the top 24 WR from 2019 (yes thats what I meant, I have just typed 2020 a lot lately) and looked at their age as a rookie.
The guys I listed were 23 or older as rookies. There is nothing out of date about that. Now with the college performance you can say they broke out at an earlier age even though they were old relatively speaking for their rookie seasons.
I kind of don't understand why Calvin Ridley doesn't meet the break out age criteria anyways. He had 89 receptions 1045 yards and 7 TD as a freshman, his age 21 season.
It tells me there is something wrong with how these things are cut off and partitioned.
That is pretty impressive if triangulating these 3 data points gets you to a -place that is more predictive than the NFL draft. Of course it should as it has the strength of that data plus these other two metrics.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Yates is likely too high as far as total pass attempts projected (620) but otherwise this makes a lot of sense.
He ends up with more targets for Hurst and Gurley than I would expect for the same reason.
The 3 year average for Matt Ryan (pro rating one game last season) is 598 so 620 isnt that much more than this average. Its 22 more than I would use as a projection though.
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
One of my number one targets in redraft for this coming year.
jm192
Footballguy
Bracie Smathers
Footballguy
YEAR 3 BREAKOUT WR: HOW HIGH IS CALVIN RIDLEY’S CEILING?
Go to the link for the rest of the article which includes video breakdowns.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Put me on the under for the optimistic “breakout” projections above, assuming we have a full season.
It’s not for anything about Ridley’s talent, which is apparent and ample, but for his opportunity.
As long as Julio is healthy, and as long as Ryan loves his TEs in the red zone more than a fat kid loves ice cream, I just can’t see Ridley having a 90+ / 1300+ season. Plus the Falcons always seem like they want to run more & use play-action to Matty Ice’s strengths.
Maybe he ekes out 9 TDs if everything breaks right & he sneaks another 3 TD game in there.
I’m not trying to be contrarian here at all - I love the kid & wish I had him in Dynasty. When he’s a WR1 those projections & more are well within his reach.
But for now I suspect he’ll be a bit over drafted on hype for a 3rd year breakout that may or may not be coming.
i could be wrong. I wasn’t high on him last season & there were a couple games I thought I’d have to eat crow, but Julio breaking his TD curse & Hooper’s great year + injury curtailed Ridley’s breakout.
IMO Hurst > Hooper so I don’t really see a shift of targets there. If anything their RBs might see a bump in targets hurting all the WRs.
Good luck to the Ridley owners - I like the kid and hope I’m wrong.
:::braces for rotten vegetables hurled by Ridley-stans:::
It’s not for anything about Ridley’s talent, which is apparent and ample, but for his opportunity.
As long as Julio is healthy, and as long as Ryan loves his TEs in the red zone more than a fat kid loves ice cream, I just can’t see Ridley having a 90+ / 1300+ season. Plus the Falcons always seem like they want to run more & use play-action to Matty Ice’s strengths.
Maybe he ekes out 9 TDs if everything breaks right & he sneaks another 3 TD game in there.
I’m not trying to be contrarian here at all - I love the kid & wish I had him in Dynasty. When he’s a WR1 those projections & more are well within his reach.
But for now I suspect he’ll be a bit over drafted on hype for a 3rd year breakout that may or may not be coming.
i could be wrong. I wasn’t high on him last season & there were a couple games I thought I’d have to eat crow, but Julio breaking his TD curse & Hooper’s great year + injury curtailed Ridley’s breakout.
IMO Hurst > Hooper so I don’t really see a shift of targets there. If anything their RBs might see a bump in targets hurting all the WRs.
Good luck to the Ridley owners - I like the kid and hope I’m wrong.
:::braces for rotten vegetables hurled by Ridley-stans:::
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
I mostly agree with you I guess but its seems fun to throw stuff at you anyways.
I disagree with your estimation of Hurst compared to Hooper. I think Hooper is better than him. I do think Hurst is in a better situation to be productive now than he was with the Ravens, due to more passing attempts overall but more opportunity doesn't mean he is a better player in my view.
The Falcons threw the ball a massive 684 times in 2019. That is a number that absolutely must go down as I do believe the Falcons are trying to win games and a part of that is having more balance between the running and passing game.
684 passing attempts is an insane amount. There have only been a few times in the history of the NFL that teams have thrown more than this. The Browns did over 700 PA the year Gordon was awesome. The Lions had 727 in 2012.
684 is a number that is likely not repeatable and it will not be the goal of the Falcons to do so.
I did a search on QB seasons with over 650 passing attempts since 2000. There have been 15 times a QB had this many. Half of the se instances it has been Drew Brees doing it.
1 Peyton Manning 2013 37 1-1 DEN NFL 16 16 450 659 68.29 5477 55 10 2 8.3 1.52 115.1 18 120 2.7% 8.31 9.30 8.87 342.3 13 3 0 2 2
2 Drew Brees 2011 32 2-32 NOR NFL 16 16 468 657 71.23 5476 46 14 1 7 2.13 110.6 24 158 3.5% 8.33 8.78 8.23 342.3 13 3 0 3 4
3 Drew Brees 2012 33 2-32 NOR NFL 16 16 422 670 62.99 5177 43 19 3 6.4 2.84 96.3 26 190 3.7% 7.73 7.73 7.17 323.6 7 9 0 1 2
4 Matthew Stafford 2011 23 1-1 DET NFL 16 16 421 663 63.50 5038 41 16 3 6.2 2.41 97.2 36 257 5.2% 7.60 7.75 6.98 314.9 10 6 0 3 4
5 Drew Brees 2013 34 2-32 NOR NFL 16 16 446 650 68.62 5162 39 12 1 6 1.85 104.7 37 244 5.4% 7.94 8.31 7.51 322.6 11 5 0 2 2
6 Drew Brees 2016 37 2-32 NOR NFL 16 16 471 673 69.99 5208 37 15 2 5.5 2.23 101.7 27 184 3.9% 7.74 7.84 7.27 325.5 7 9 0 2 4
7 Ben Roethlisberger 2018 36 1-11 PIT NFL 16 16 452 675 66.96 5129 34 16 1 5 2.37 96.5 24 166 3.4% 7.60 7.54 7.04 320.6 9 6 1 2 3
8 Drew Brees 2010 31 2-32 NOR NFL 16 16 448 658 68.09 4620 33 22 4 5 3.34 90.9 25 185 3.7% 7.02 6.52 6.01 288.8 11 5 0 4 5
9 Drew Brees 2014 35 2-32 NOR NFL 16 16 456 659 69.20 4952 33 17 3 5 2.58 97.0 29 186 4.2% 7.51 7.36 6.77 309.5 7 9 0 2 2
10 Peyton Manning 2010 34 1-1 IND NFL 16 16 450 679 66.27 4700 33 17 4 4.9 2.50 91.9 16 91 2.3% 6.92 6.77 6.48 293.8 10 6 0 0 2
11 Philip Rivers 2015 34 1-4 SDG NFL 16 16 437 661 66.11 4792 29 13 5 4.4 1.97 93.8 40 264 5.7% 7.25 7.24 6.45 299.5 4 12 0 1 2
12 Drew Brees 2007 28 2-32 NOR NFL 16 16 440 652 67.48 4423 28 18 2 4.3 2.76 89.4 16 109 2.4% 6.78 6.40 6.08 276.4 7 9 0 1 1
13 Matt Ryan 2013 28 1-3 ATL NFL 16 16 439 651 67.43 4515 26 17 4 4 2.61 89.6 44 298 6.3% 6.94 6.56 5.72 282.2 4 12 0 1 1
14 Joe Flacco 2016 31 1-18 BAL NFL 16 16 436 672 64.88 4317 20 15 3 2.23 83.5 33 243 4.7% 6.42 6.01 5.39 269.8 8 8 0 2 2
15 Matthew Stafford 2012 24 1-1 DET NFL 16 16 435 727 59.83 4967 20 17 4 2.8 2.34 79.8 29 212 3.8% 6.83 6.33 5.81 310.4 4 12 0 3
But Matt Ryan did do it in 2013 when they were not able to run the ball or play defense either. Ryan didn't play in the Seattle game last year and Matt Schuab had 52 passing attempts in that one as well as a few in some other games along the way. Mopping up when all other hope is lost.
Will the Falcons play better defense this year?
Will they be able to run the ball more effectively?
I am not sure on those two right now. but I would likely project the Falcons for 600 passing attempts this year and that means fewer targets across the board.
The search above and Ryan actually hitting the 650 mark before does have me thinking 600 passing attempts is a strong floor projection for Ryan. I wouldn't project him or the Falcons for less than 600. I can understand Yates setting this at 620 a little more after looking at it again.
If Hooper were still with the team I would be projecting him for fewer targets than he got last season.
If Gurley is an effective receiver than I think the targets to the TE go down. I see these market shares of the targets for the TE and RB as more interdependent than the relationship they have with the WR share of the targets.
Here is the positional target share for the last 3 seasons
2019
WR 60.8%
TE 16.8%
RB 14.9%
2018
WR 66%
TE 17%
RB 13.5%
2017
WR 62.8%
TE 14.9%
RB 16.2%
The Falcons ran 3 WR on 62% of their plays last year and they threw from this formation 79% of the time. Hurst should be the TE on most of these plays but a lot of the time if they want the RB to be a passing option out of this formation the TE will block or run a shallow route to set up a block.
Todd Gurley could have the target distribution to the RB be more similar to 2017 than the last two seasons.
Getting back to RIdley and the folly of projection from a small sample size of 6 games though,
131 targets would be 21.8% of 600 passing attempts, possible for that happen while Julio is getting 26% of the targets and Gage picking up only 14 or 15% and no other WR with more than 10 targets. Does seem a bit high to me though. Im more comfortable with 20% than 22%
20% of the targets on 620 attempts would be 124 targets. Thats getting closer but still falling short. The 10 yards per target is optimistic as well but if we just calculate the targets using Ridleys career averages 124 targets would be 85 receptions 1128 yards at .58 TD per game would be 9.4 TD sprinkle in a few rushing yards as reasonable.
I would be more wary of expecting Hurst putting up near Hooper numbers from 2019. That volume was not sustainable even if they kept Hooper I think it would have been a career year.
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Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Breezy H2O
Footballguy
I've got a new nickname for him: little brittle
The Frankman
Footballguy
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Faust
MVP
https://twitter.com/atlantafalcons/status/1305597436115603456?s=21Atlanta Falcons @AtlantaFalcons
Elite route runner = @CalvinRidley1
#ATLvsDAL 1:00pm Sunday on FOX
dcgangstas
Footballguy
League Winner....
dcgangstas
Footballguy
Clearly first round in dynasty.
Ridley looks like the 2nd coming of Marvin Harrison.
Had Ridley as #6 at WR coming into the year, so I ended up with him on 4 of 6 teams.
This was always on the table. He'd been elite whenever he saw more than 7 targets, which was a lock with Sanu/Hooper gone. He's always been a redzone threat, and he's earned Ryan's trust in key situations.
I think its entirely possible the baton has been passed, and Julio is the #2 in Atlanta now. Of course, there is more than enough room for both to be WR1s. Ryan could/should throw 700 passes this season.
Honestly, I'm not sure there is a WR I'd rather own than Ridley. Not Thomas, not Adams, not Hill, nobody.
Banger
Footballguy
ya, Julio is looking like he's lost a step and the baton may have already been passed. Years worth of injuries seems to have worn him down.
Can't go wrong with any of those wr's but Ridley has clearly taken a jump to the top level.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
So happy to admit I was wrong about this dude. I took him 4.10 because it felt late & I needed a WR2. I'd heard Ryan talking him up all off-season & man - what a start. i don't expect Julio to miss time, and honestly I don't want him to as he draws a substantial amount of coverage. Ridley is just the apple of Ryan's TD eye. It's crazy how productive this dude has been.
Ridley is officially my 2020 mancrush.
Ridley is officially my 2020 mancrush.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Banger
Footballguy
the problem is he's always playing through something and as you get older it gets harder to stay healthy and recover. JJ's "problem" is that he always wants to play through the injuries so it makes healing up more difficult.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
Snorkelson
Footballguy
I think it’s possible, or at least should have a comfortable target share. I think hurst gets a bump too, maybe we finally see a hooper type game out of him with a couple tds.
Truebluey
Footballguy
Yes I wouldn't be surprised if they take a couple of deep seam shots up the middle to Hurst today.
