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Galileo

FanDuel Week 17

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Well here it is.  Last week of the regular season.  Time to figure out who has something to play for and who is just going through the motions.  I may not even play FanDuel this week...too much odd stuff to account for.  Oh, who am I kidding, I'll probably be in for a small amount.  Of course, I say that today, and by Saturday, I'll be $30-$40 deep.

Whoa...CLE defense is only $3000 against PIT.  I don't think I've ever seen anything that cheap.   Pittsburgh has everything wrapped up though, don't they?  They'll have all the back ups in before half time.  Hmmmm....

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2 hours ago, Galileo said:

Well here it is.  Last week of the regular season.  Time to figure out who has something to play for and who is just going through the motions.  I may not even play FanDuel this week...too much odd stuff to account for.  Oh, who am I kidding, I'll probably be in for a small amount.  Of course, I say that today, and by Saturday, I'll be $30-$40 deep.

Whoa...CLE defense is only $3000 against PIT.  I don't think I've ever seen anything that cheap.   Pittsburgh has everything wrapped up though, don't they?  They'll have all the back ups in before half time.  Hmmmm....

Can't Pitts still get the #1 seed if NE happens to lose?  I think they play at the same time too, so both teams should be going for it.  

I need to look at it more, but I think there are some teams that can't improve their playoff standings- KC is stuck in the 4 spot.  Is Jax stuck in the 3?   Philly has the 1 wrapped up, but not sure about the rest of the NFC.  I might be a little cautious of teams like that, along with teams that are out of the playoffs.  We need to dig a little deeper this week.

Tenn has to play, so Henry could be interesting on the cheap with Murray out, even against Jax.  

Edited by KarmaPolice

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I THINK I have this right:

AFC: 

  • NE and Pitts have the 1 and 2 locked up, but they are still playing for home field throughout the playoffs, so the Pats still need to win to get that.
  • Jax and KC are locked into the 3 and 4 seed, so don't have much to play for
  • Baltimore wins and is in.  Could lose and get a Bills or Titans loss too
  • Tenn is win and in as well, or if not, they need both the Bills and Chargers to lose
  • Chargers and Bills are outside looking in and the Chargers play the late game, so they will know at kickoff if they have something to play for

 

NFC:

  • Eagles have 1 seed locked so they don't need to keep playing if they don't want to.
  • Minn gets the 2 with a win or if NO, Atl, or LaR win? They play early
  • The Rams Won their division, but can't get a bye.  They play late.
  • Saints are in the playoffs, but are still playing for a home game.  Can't get higher than the 3 seed.
  • Panthers are in, but somehow they can get up to the 2 seed if things go right for them?
  • Atlanta are win and in, Seattle could get in if the Falcons lose and they win.   Seattle plays late, so they will know if they have something to play for. 

 

Of the playoff teams, I highlighted the ones that I would want to look into more or would a tad more nervous playing guys from, but maybe more teams go the Pats route and just keep playing full throttle?

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Thanks for putting that together, KP.   

Eagles are interesting.  Although they have the 1 seed locked, I would think they still need Foles to get as much experience as possible with the regular offensive personnel.  Knowing they can rest the following week, and this game being a division rivalry, they may play their starters more than one would expect. 

 

Here is the Panther scenario for getting a 1st round bye... CAR win + NO loss or tie + MIN loss + LAR loss or tie.  Minnesota plays early, so they should know that part of the equation.

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KP I think all the deciding games for the Chargers are late games, so they should play to win not knowing the outcomes.

Chargers need to beat the Oakland Raiders at home.  They also need the Jacksonville Jaguars to beat the Tennessee Titans while the Baltimore Ravens win against the Cincinnati Bengals.  If the Ravens lose, the Bolts still get in if the Buffalo Bills lose to the Miami Dolphins in addition to Tennessee losing. 

All these are late games.

Chargers are going to SB this year, I can feel it ;)

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I'll post this here since it's semi football ball related.

$127.47 in, 371 contests for $4 NBA Clutch tickets across 2 weeks.  Won 61 tickets worth $244.  27 of those tickets cashed for $249.  That was a whole lot of grinding for minimal return.

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7 hours ago, AquaBliss said:

KP I think all the deciding games for the Chargers are late games, so they should play to win not knowing the outcomes.

Chargers need to beat the Oakland Raiders at home.  They also need the Jacksonville Jaguars to beat the Tennessee Titans while the Baltimore Ravens win against the Cincinnati Bengals.  If the Ravens lose, the Bolts still get in if the Buffalo Bills lose to the Miami Dolphins in addition to Tennessee losing. 

All these are late games.

Chargers are going to SB this year, I can feel it ;)

@AquaBliss - I show the Jax/Tenn, Balt/Cincy, and Buff/Mia games all playing at 1est so that's why I said they will know if they are playing for anything.  

The only 4pm games I show are Chargers/Oakland, Seattle/Az, Kc/Denv, and SF/Rams.  Maybe my list is wrong though.  

 

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I started listening to a podcast this morning - I will post more if they have any more suggestions, but a few points they had:

  • There is a difference between teams like Indy who have been out for awhile and have been playing starters this whole time (plus it's probably Chuck P's last game as coach) vs. a team that just got knocked out last week like Dallas or Det.  My placeholder LU had a Brisset/T.Y. stack since that is super cheap.  
  • They said there are 2 games where neither team has anything on the line at all:  GB/Det and Wash/NYG.  I think there are more or could be more in those afternoon games b/c it's possible Chargers and Seattle know they will be knocked out and KC already can't improve their seeding.  Since they can't get the bye week, it's also possible that the Rams could take the 2nd half off or something.  IMO there is a possibility that those 4 afternoon games could be a little trashy if teams find out they are done.  
  • Also stated that a Pitts beat writer suggested Pitts could be scoreboard watching and if NE happens to go up huge at halftime, they could pull a couple guys that they can't risk getting hurt so they said Pitts might be gpp only.  

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33 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

I'll post this here since it's semi football ball related.

$127.47 in, 371 contests for $4 NBA Clutch tickets across 2 weeks.  Won 61 tickets worth $244.  27 of those tickets cashed for $249.  That was a whole lot of grinding for minimal return.

Sure, you didn't win thousands, but I would take a near 2x return.  

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8 hours ago, Galileo said:

Thanks for putting that together, KP.   

Eagles are interesting.  Although they have the 1 seed locked, I would think they still need Foles to get as much experience as possible with the regular offensive personnel.  Knowing they can rest the following week, and this game being a division rivalry, they may play their starters more than one would expect. 

 

Here is the Panther scenario for getting a 1st round bye... CAR win + NO loss or tie + MIN loss + LAR loss or tie.  Minnesota plays early, so they should know that part of the equation.

That is a good point, and it might be the difference between a team like Philly who has the bye and KC/Jax/Rams who know they have to play this coming weekend again.  

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8 hours ago, Galileo said:

Thanks for putting that together, KP.   

Eagles are interesting.  Although they have the 1 seed locked, I would think they still need Foles to get as much experience as possible with the regular offensive personnel.  Knowing they can rest the following week, and this game being a division rivalry, they may play their starters more than one would expect. 

 

2 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

That is a good point, and it might be the difference between a team like Philly who has the bye and KC/Jax/Rams who know they have to play this coming weekend again.  

Of course, that may just mean they get pulled in the 4th quarter instead of at halftime.  Still may be risky to count on them.

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7 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

They said there are 2 games where neither team has anything on the line at all:  GB/Det and Wash/NYG.  I think there are more or could be more in those afternoon games b/c it's possible Chargers and Seattle know they will be knocked out and KC already can't improve their seeding.  Since they can't get the bye week, it's also possible that the Rams could take the 2nd half off or something.  IMO there is a possibility that those 4 afternoon games could be a little trashy if teams find out they are done.  

Both divisional match ups as well.  That could add to the trashy factor.

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

@AquaBliss - I show the Jax/Tenn, Balt/Cincy, and Buff/Mia games all playing at 1est so that's why I said they will know if they are playing for anything.  

The only 4pm games I show are Chargers/Oakland, Seattle/Az, Kc/Denv, and SF/Rams.  Maybe my list is wrong though.  

 

Your times are wrong, all the games that matter are at 425pm

Edited by Megla

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

@AquaBliss - I show the Jax/Tenn, Balt/Cincy, and Buff/Mia games all playing at 1est so that's why I said they will know if they are playing for anything.  

The only 4pm games I show are Chargers/Oakland, Seattle/Az, Kc/Denv, and SF/Rams.  Maybe my list is wrong though.  

 

They moved five games to the 4:00 window.

Carolina@Atlanta; Cincinnati@Baltimore; Buffalo@Miami; New Orleans@Tampa Bay; Jacksonville@Tennessee

 

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14 minutes ago, Megla said:

Your times are wrong, all the games that matter are at 425pm

 

12 minutes ago, ajm27501 said:

They moved five games to the 4:00 window.

Carolina@Atlanta; Cincinnati@Baltimore; Buffalo@Miami; New Orleans@Tampa Bay; Jacksonville@Tennessee

 

Wow- I didn't see that, I just had a betting sheet from the start of the week.  That does change things and puts those AFC teams like Chargers more in play.  :thumbup:

I was just coming in to post that a podcast kept gushing about the Chargers players and I couldn't understand why.  

ETA: thanks for the info 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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Let's get back to the week 17 discussion.  

I saw in the other thread that Goff and Gurley are sitting.  KC was in a position like this a few years ago and sat starters, but has there been any word yet if they will do that this year?  Right now I have Gurley and Hunt crossed off my list and ??s next to Gordon (inj), Fournette (hasn't been great recently and I don't trust they keep the starters in all game), and Bell (price tag and chance they start resting in the 3rd IF the Pats are up big on the Jets).  

What I have written down for solid plays:

D.Lewis (7.2) - must win game at home and Rex, White still injured and even Gilly shows up on the injured report.

Ingram/Kamara (8.4/8.8) - NO playing for seeding and they are at home.  Trouble is deciding which one each week.  I say Ingram this week b/c they should have trouble with TB.

A.Collins (6.8) - Baltimore is going to play and are at home too.  Cinc has given up the most pts to RBs over the last 5 weeks.  

M.Brown (4.5) - This unlocks being able to play just about anybody else you want.  Rams have the 3rd best OLvsDL stats for the week, but are the Rams sitting any OL starters?

L.Murray (6.6) - another home team playing to win.  

McCaffrey (6.9) - Burned the Falcons last time and Carolina has the most to play for as far as seeding goes.  

 

Qs or gpp plays:

Zeke 8.7 and Bell 9.5 - possibility of not playing the whole games, but could get enough pts before that happens

Gordon (8.4) - says he will be ready, but can we trust that he will stay that way?

McCoy (8.2) -  favored on the road vs. a bad D in a must win game, but has pretty big home/road splits over the last 2 years - 21 pts/g at home, only 12.6 away.  

Henry (5.8), Drake (7.0), B.Oliver (4.5) - if we know ahead of time that Murray, D.Will, or Gordon will be out, they probably move to the tier up above.

CJ Anderson (6.9) - will the old guy play the whole game vs. the resting Chiefs?  He has looked damn good the last few weeks.  

Gallman (5.1) - I like this as a gpp play.  Wash has been weak vs. RBs and I think I read they lost their best run stopper.  In the last 3 weeks he has quietly seen 21, 15, and 18 touches and as been 1.9x+ all 3 weeks.  Sees a lot of work in the pass game, so is in play even if we think Cousins might come out hot to try to make some more $   One of my low % gpp ideas was Cousins + Crowder or Doctson and running it back with Gallman.  

 

Anybody I miss or anything that is wrong in my thinking above??  

 

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13 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Let's get back to the week 17 discussion.  

I saw in the other thread that Goff and Gurley are sitting.  KC was in a position like this a few years ago and sat starters, but has there been any word yet if they will do that this year?  Right now I have Gurley and Hunt crossed off my list and ??s next to Gordon (inj), Fournette (hasn't been great recently and I don't trust they keep the starters in all game), and Bell (price tag and chance they start resting in the 3rd IF the Pats are up big on the Jets).  

What I have written down for solid plays:

D.Lewis (7.2) - must win game at home and Rex, White still injured and even Gilly shows up on the injured report.

Ingram/Kamara (8.4/8.8) - NO playing for seeding and they are at home.  Trouble is deciding which one each week.  I say Ingram this week b/c they should have trouble with TB.

A.Collins (6.8) - Baltimore is going to play and are at home too.  Cinc has given up the most pts to RBs over the last 5 weeks.  

M.Brown (4.5) - This unlocks being able to play just about anybody else you want.  Rams have the 3rd best OLvsDL stats for the week, but are the Rams sitting any OL starters?

L.Murray (6.6) - another home team playing to win.  

McCaffrey (6.9) - Burned the Falcons last time and Carolina has the most to play for as far as seeding goes.  

 

Qs or gpp plays:

Zeke 8.7 and Bell 9.5 - possibility of not playing the whole games, but could get enough pts before that happens

Gordon (8.4) - says he will be ready, but can we trust that he will stay that way?

McCoy (8.2) -  favored on the road vs. a bad D in a must win game, but has pretty big home/road splits over the last 2 years - 21 pts/g at home, only 12.6 away.  

Henry (5.8), Drake (7.0), B.Oliver (4.5) - if we know ahead of time that Murray, D.Will, or Gordon will be out, they probably move to the tier up above.

CJ Anderson (6.9) - will the old guy play the whole game vs. the resting Chiefs?  He has looked damn good the last few weeks.  

Gallman (5.1) - I like this as a gpp play.  Wash has been weak vs. RBs and I think I read they lost their best run stopper.  In the last 3 weeks he has quietly seen 21, 15, and 18 touches and as been 1.9x+ all 3 weeks.  Sees a lot of work in the pass game, so is in play even if we think Cousins might come out hot to try to make some more $   One of my low % gpp ideas was Cousins + Crowder or Doctson and running it back with Gallman.  

 

Anybody I miss or anything that is wrong in my thinking above??  

 

Williams in GB off the top of my head, also Drake in Mia

Edited by Megla

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57 minutes ago, Megla said:

Williams in GB off the top of my head, also Drake in Mia

I have Drake in there.  J.will has burned me a little lately, but will look into him too since Det stinks vs the run.  Good call - thanks. 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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42 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

I have Drake in there.  J.will has burned me a little lately, but will look into him too since Det stinks vs the run.  Good call - thanks. 

Yeah, I think J.Will  is in line for a large volume of work.

You asked about KC...Andy Reid has said that Pat Mahomes will get the start.  I do not know about other KC personnel. 

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40 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Yeah, I think J.Will  is in line for a large volume of work.

You asked about KC...Andy Reid has said that Pat Mahomes will get the start.  I do not know about other KC personnel. 

Mahomes worth a 6k gpp flier? 

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Is there away to see which players will be playing to hit a year end bonus or close enough to set a record that their coach may push to get them to that threshold? 

I would think those type of players may also get an uptick. I believe I read Hopkins needs 144 yards to be his best year ever. Does he get fed the rock more than normal to make sure he gets it?

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5 minutes ago, topman said:

Is there away to see which players will be playing to hit a year end bonus or close enough to set a record that their coach may push to get them to that threshold? 

I would think those type of players may also get an uptick. I believe I read Hopkins needs 144 yards to be his best year ever. Does he get fed the rock more than normal to make sure he gets it?

Hopkins is unlikely to play, per Rotoworld. Some kind of calf injury.

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1 hour ago, KarmaPolice said:

Mahomes worth a 6k gpp flier? 

Maybe, but that may depend on the status of Hill and Kelce.  Denver is not an easy defense to make your debut against.

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45 minutes ago, topman said:

Is there away to see which players will be playing to hit a year end bonus or close enough to set a record that their coach may push to get them to that threshold? 

I would think those type of players may also get an uptick. I believe I read Hopkins needs 144 yards to be his best year ever. Does he get fed the rock more than normal to make sure he gets it?

I think Gronk needs 115 yds or 13 catches for $2M (something on those lines). 

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6 hours ago, Galileo said:

Yeah, I think J.Will  is in line for a large volume of work.

 

Just saw that A.Jones is doubtful, so I like that J.Will call even more now.  

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I love Week 17, very unpredictable like week 1.  Million dollar GPP winner always turns out to be some crazy nonsense team that you normally wouldn’t bet 10 cents on.

I really like Wilson/Baldwin stack this week and also Cousins/Grant or maybe Crowder.  

Going to throw in some off putting GPP lineups in the Sunday Million for fun.

I'll be thrilled if my Bolts get a wildcard spot, but I know better than to hold my breath.  I wonder what Young Ho Koo is doing this weekend.

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4 hours ago, reel_smooth said:

Nobody considering a Cousins/V. Davis stack, considering that they're playing the NYG?

I have Cousins and Stafford down as non-playoff qbs that still might play and have easy matchups.  My issue with Cousins is i dont see the Giants putting up any fight, so how much is he going to have to pass? 

I like the Davis call- I am finding the TEs worse than normal this week.  (Which means it will probably be some min priced preseason hero playing with one of these new qbs that scores big) 

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8 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I don't understand it at all with the #1 possible if NE stumbles.  

I have Bell in my primary season long league.  Although our playoffs are done, we do what we call a "Bench Clearing Brawl" for week 17.  $$ goes to the highest scoring roster without need to designate starters.  Without Bell, my chances are minimal.

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My current cash LU looks like this, but I am not excited about it (could use more playoff contenders)...

Stafford - Ingram/Williams - Allen/M.Jones/Hilton - Walker - Gostkowski - CLE

CLE is dirt cheap.  I was iffy about using them, but with no Ben, Bell, or Brown maybe there is some upside now.  

Edited by Galileo

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1 hour ago, Galileo said:

My current cash LU looks like this, but I am not excited about it (could use more playoff contenders)...

Stafford - Ingram/Williams - Allen/M.Jones/Hilton - Walker - Gostkowski - CLE

CLE is dirt cheap.  I was iffy about using them, but with no Ben, Bell, or Brown maybe there is some upside now.  

No surprise, but I talked myself into trying to figure out a cash LU.  :lol:  It is tricky, but I also thought about using Cleveland D now.  Here is what I had as my placeholder:

Rivers - Ingram/M.Brown - K.Allen/Evans/Hilton - Gronk - Forbath - Clev 

Not sure I love using Brown, but I kinda like the rest.  Feels weird that I don't have a piece of the Car/Atl game (I think the only game where both teams have something to play for) so I will keep staring and thinking.  I do like that WR/TE core though.  

I like yours as well, I just don't know if I could use a QB from a team not heading to the playoffs in cash just in case their coaches do something dumb and put in a backup after a bit to see what they have.  I do think Stafford, Cousins, and Jimmy G are the safest of those type of QBs so it is probably fine.  

 

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8 hours ago, reel_smooth said:

Nobody considering a Cousins/V. Davis stack, considering that they're playing the NYG?

I never know how to balance data and stats.  All year I kept hearing to start TEs vs the Browns and Giants.  They must've gotten better b/c the Giants are now #18DVOA vs. TE (Cleveland is #32) but I wrote down the Ds that have allowed the 10 most FDpts/g to TEs over the last 5 weeks and neither team was on it.  The tops there were Mia, GB, Det, Ten, Buff, Oak, Cinc, Rams.  

B/c of the pt/g I have Clay, Ebron, Gates, and Watson written down, but like I said, I am not sure how to balance that with other stats like DVOA. (Worst Ds as far as DVOA are Clev, Cincy, Balt, Denver, Miami).   So only a couple overlap (the bolded).

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17 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

I don't understand it at all with the #1 possible if NE stumbles.  

Their logic, which I don't agree with at all, is that Jets can't possibly give the Pats a game therefore with AB out protect Ben and Bell.

This is planning to fail, imo.

 

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25 minutes ago, SeniorVBDStudent said:

Their logic, which I don't agree with at all, is that Jets can't possibly give the Pats a game therefore with AB out protect Ben and Bell.

This is planning to fail, imo.

 

I am sure 1/2 of it is them also thinking that their backups can take care of Cleveland or keep it close.  

I think the Pats were in a position like this a few years ago and failed to put away the team they should have and had to play the AFCCG in Denver.  I am going to laugh pretty hard if they both end up losing and Pitts realizes they could have had the 1 seed.  

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I was scanning the practice reports - it looks like D.Murr and A.Jones are out making Henry and J.Williams interesting.  It also looks like D.Williams is doubtful, making Drake a play again.

I am starting to think Henry over M.Brown in cash, which means I have to shuffle stuff around.   

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I usually start with my cheapie 25cent LUs, and my low % ideas this week was to stack teams that are playing for a playoff spot, but are probably going unowned, so I have a Keenum - Diggs/Rudolph, Mariota - Henry/R.Matthews, and Tyrod - McCoy/Clay stack going.  

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On 12/26/2017 at 6:58 PM, Galileo said:

Whoa...CLE defense is only $3000 against PIT.  I don't think I've ever seen anything that cheap.

Was there anything about this being a mistake?  I always thought the floor cost for kickers was 4500 and D 4000.

Have to play this in a cash plus LU I'm thinking.  Playing to not go 0fer against Steelers backups could lead to 3x.

Edited by Bobcat10

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5 hours ago, Bobcat10 said:

Was there anything about this being a mistake?  I always thought the floor cost for kickers was 4500 and D 4000.

Have to play this in a cash plus LU I'm thinking.  Playing to not go 0fer against Steelers backups could lead to 3x.

They were 3.5k vs Det several weeks ago.  I am still thinking about it for cash, but don't think they have a 10pt+ game in them for a gpp. 

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6 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

They were 3.5k vs Det several weeks ago.  I am still thinking about it for cash, but don't think they have a 10pt+ game in them for a gpp. 

Agreed...a couple sacks and hope for an INT is probably best case scenario

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FWIW, another potential GPP dart-throw: Ryan Switzer - WR, DAL Cole Beasley will be out, Switzer is taking his place in the slot. Against a Philly secondary that has had it's starters getting lit up. Minimum price of $4500.

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8 hours ago, Ever Present Lurker said:

Anyone like Marshawn playing for the incentive $$?  Bea$tmode?

Not for me...He may be OK, but he seems pretty TD dependent.  Doesn't get receiving yards..has hit 100 only once (although a couple of his better yardage games have been in recent weeks.

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I know a lot of these guys are cheap, but I am trying to step back and think about this big picture and maybe pump the breaks a little on these 4.5K guys just because they are 4.5K.  I think a big problem with all the value this week is that there is not that much to spend up on this week with so many studs sitting.  Maybe a couple of these guys will burn me, but I just can't bring myself to click on names like Reynolds, M.Brown, Mahomes, etc.. when it's really easy to get a lot of medium priced guys that are maybe underperforming but are actual nfl starters like AJ Green, Gordon, Baldwin, etc..

Again, I am fully prepared for my post to bite me as usual and a  Mannion - J.Reynolds stack take all the gpps this week.  

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Looks like White is probably out along with Gilly and Rex and there is sub-zero windchills.  Looks like it could be another heavy lifting game for D.Lewis.  

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26 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Looks like White is probably out along with Gilly and Rex and there is sub-zero windchills.  Looks like it could be another heavy lifting game for D.Lewis.  

Just heard on the radio that NE has hung wall thermometers on the walls outside the Jets locker room to be sure they see the temps... :lmao:

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3 minutes ago, Galileo said:

Just heard on the radio that NE has hung wall thermometers on the walls outside the Jets locker room to be sure they see the temps... :lmao:

:lol: that is awesome.

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