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AudibleAudie7

Fantasy Football Inquiries?

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Hey everyone!!

I am befuddled beyond belief!!  I have been playing FanDuel for 2 years and no matter how much research I do each week, comparisons, articles I read, etc., I cannot for the life of me get a good lineup - even with the ones that seem to bring in high fantasy points.  One week I will have what I think is a stellar lineup and it ends up sucking.  Then the next week I go a different route and the ones I picked the week before end up putting someone ELSE in first place!!  What am I doing wrong?  How do I go about picking a good lineup that will let me win JUST ONCE!!?

Is anyone willing to give me pointers, suggestions, etc.?

Thank you ALL for anything you can offer!!

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20 minutes ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

Hey everyone!!

I am befuddled beyond belief!!  I have been playing FanDuel for 2 years and no matter how much research I do each week, comparisons, articles I read, etc., I cannot for the life of me get a good lineup - even with the ones that seem to bring in high fantasy points.  One week I will have what I think is a stellar lineup and it ends up sucking.  Then the next week I go a different route and the ones I picked the week before end up putting someone ELSE in first place!!  What am I doing wrong?  How do I go about picking a good lineup that will let me win JUST ONCE!!?

Is anyone willing to give me pointers, suggestions, etc.?

Thank you ALL for anything you can offer!!

Just use Dodds suggested lineups and you'll soon have a winning week.

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I am just curious- what is your process during the week and what stats do you look at? 

Also, do you have a subscription somewhere, or are you looking at free info? 

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Well, I first look at the week the player did before, I look at injury reports, I compare how they did against the team they're playing before (if they played them prior), I read Rotoworld, SBNation, Sporting News, Fantasy Pros, and I look at the other lineups from the week before.  I go cross-eyed I am reading so much.  I have had ONE close call where I was in first place - for like ten minutes.  I have had SO much advice and I take it and I just end up choking on it.

Those are the best examples right now that I can give.

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Just now, AudibleAudie7 said:

I enter the contests I can afford and they are anywhere from $0.25 to $7.00. 

 

Are they the big tourneys or 50/50, 2x type of contests? 

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How do I utilize Dodds information and is it free?

Also, here is the lineup for one of the games for week 17 - you tell me what you think.

QB - J. Goff

RB - T. Gurley and A. Collins

WR - J. Smith-Schuster, S. Watkins, and K. Cole who is now questionable

TE - J. Doyle

K - D. Hopkins

D - Steelers

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1 minute ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

They are the big tourneys.  I need some strategy guys!!

If that is the case, I would temper expectations on winning huge with those.  It's VERY hard to place high in those.  Most articles I read suggest putting at most 30% of your $ each week in those, and the rest in the 50/50, 2x type.  

IF you are doing all gpps, I would personally suggest going all or nothing.  What I mean by that is picking a game or two (or 3-4 teams) and hammering those.  It doesn't do you much good to try to do 50 different things each week.  

Long story short, get your core of players you love and go from there.  Say this week you like NO, NE, SF, and Chargers and that gives you a core of Jimmy G, D.Lewis, Kamara, Allen, and Goodwin.  Use that core for a few LUs, and rotate in different options at wr3, he, k, and DT.

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Just now, AudibleAudie7 said:

Let me make sure I understand.  Just pick players from a handful of teams and pick key players from those teams?  Also, did you see the lineup I posted and what do you think?

How many contests are you doing in a week? 

I did, and I am thinking. 

 

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Also, they have a free contest if you pick the best lineup you win $300k.  This is who I chose for week 17 and I chose these players on what their overall stats are, how they did over the last several weeks, and the points they bring in.  This is who I chose for that lineup and give me your honest answer please!

QB - B. Rothlisberger

RB - T. Gurley and L. Bell

WR - R. Gronkowski and T. Kelce

You only have to pick those positions in this contest.

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36 minutes ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

I enter the contests I can afford and they are anywhere from $0.25 to $7.00. 

 

 

9 minutes ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

I do probably 3 to 5 contests a week and I choose a lot of the same players and just change a few here and there.

If that is the case, I would also look for the single entry contests.  IE if you are doing $6 in a weekend, doing 4 $1 single entry and a $2 single entry puts you with a similar starting point as other contestants.  If you are entering the bigger ones with (the huge $1 multi entry tourney) you are going up against people who might be putting in 50-150 LUs in that contest and you aren't at the same level as everybody.  

 

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I get it and I SO appreciate your input!!

I really want to understand your theory on choosing a lineup - further up in the thread about NO, NE, SF and Chargers.  Are you saying that - hypothetically - if these were the top team to pick just from them?

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29 minutes ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

 

Also, here is the lineup for one of the games for week 17 - you tell me what you think.

QB - J. Goff

RB - T. Gurley and A. Collins

WR - J. Smith-Schuster, S. Watkins, and K. Cole who is now questionable

TE - J. Doyle

K - D. Hopkins

D - Steelers

 

14 minutes ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

Also, they have a free contest if you pick the best lineup you win $300k.  This is who I chose for week 17 and I chose these players on what their overall stats are, how they did over the last several weeks, and the points they bring in.  This is who I chose for that lineup and give me your honest answer please!

QB - B. Rothlisberger

RB - T. Gurley and L. Bell

WR - R. Gronkowski and T. Kelce

You only have to pick those positions in this contest.

IMO besides Watkins, these LUs might be a little too 'chalky' to do real damage in a gpp.  

If you look at the payout structure, it really is all or none.  You could get in the top 100 and still only win a few bucks.  From a strategy article I read, you need a mix of good, solid players and 1-2 low % guys in your LU.   Basically you need the steady points from your core 6-7 guys then the last few to push you past everybody else.  I think a lot of those players that you listed are going to be popular, and most of the time if you have a LU of all popular guys and they do well, you stay in the pack and you don't separate from it enough.  

What I am saying (especially for that 5 position free contest), if you have 5 players that are all popular and owned at 30%, you probably aren't going anywhere unless they happen to all be the top scorers.  What you want in a big tournament like that is to have that guy like McCoy who could be a bit lower owned than Bell score more than him and push up up the boards more.  

 

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Okay - I don't want to come across like a complete idiot but that second paragraph - I don't understand what you are saying.  I get that I need to plug in a few of the lower end players but what do you mean by "steady points from your core 6-7 guys then the last few to push you past everybody else."

The other person who replied said something about Dodds.  I see he is also on FootballGuys and would like to look into it.

Thank you again for allowing me to pick your brain!!

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5 minutes ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

I get it and I SO appreciate your input!!

I really want to understand your theory on choosing a lineup - further up in the thread about NO, NE, SF and Chargers.  Are you saying that - hypothetically - if these were the top team to pick just from them?

Maybe that matters a little less if you are just doing a few LUs a week.  I was imagining that you are doing $5-6 in 25cent entries or 20-25 LUs.  if that was the case, I would say stick with a core - maybe 3 QBs instead of trying to hit everything by going with 14 QBs.  If you are doing just 3-4, I would say go with what you like.

I will say the cheaper the contest and the bigger the contest the "weirder" you might have to get.  People are more likely to throw in odd combos here or take 7 players from the same game in a 25cent or $1 contest.   

 

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Understood!!  Say if I do 4 lineups, I will maybe choose 2 QB's for those 4 contests, switch maybe 1 or 2 RB's, 1 or 2 WR's, and the remainder I will swap out with different players and a new DST for each contest.  Don't get me wrong, I have won probably $200.00 over the last 2 years with the lineups I have generated but none that have really hit that top ten placement.

Do you have the time to tell me a little about Dodds and where I would go on his page to generate a mock lineup to see if it's worthy?

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2 minutes ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

Okay - I don't want to come across like a complete idiot but that second paragraph - I don't understand what you are saying.  I get that I need to plug in a few of the lower end players but what do you mean by "steady points from your core 6-7 guys then the last few to push you past everybody else."

The other person who replied said something about Dodds.  I see he is also on FootballGuys and would like to look into it.

Thank you again for allowing me to pick your brain!!

I guess what I am saying that the popular plays are popular for a reason - good teams projections, at home, vs. a bad D, etc...  BUT what are the odds that all the popular plays end up as the best plays and highest scoring for a week.  Therefore, I wouldn't suggest taking 9 players that are boom/bust low % plays.   Take guys that are safe, but have upside, but throw in 1-2 boom/bust plays or low % plays.  

Example this week of what I think popular plays or a LU might look like this week (no idea if it works salary-wise, just throwing in names):  Cam - Bell/D.Lewis - JuJu/Julio/D.Westbrook - Gates - Gostkowski - Pitts D.    What I usually try to do is pivot off a few of those plays to something else or to include a different stack to make it more unique.  So maybe that gives you something like:   Ben - McCoy/D.Lewis - JuJu/Julio/T.Y. Hilton - Gates - Gost - PittsD.    You still have some core plays that are probably still great, and maybe a couple guys in McCoy and Hilton that might be less popular but still could go off for 2TDs each week and push you past other entries, plus it has Ben and JuJu paired up too.  

 

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5 minutes ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

Understood!!  Say if I do 4 lineups, I will maybe choose 2 QB's for those 4 contests, switch maybe 1 or 2 RB's, 1 or 2 WR's, and the remainder I will swap out with different players and a new DST for each contest.  Don't get me wrong, I have won probably $200.00 over the last 2 years with the lineups I have generated but none that have really hit that top ten placement.

Do you have the time to tell me a little about Dodds and where I would go on his page to generate a mock lineup to see if it's worthy?

Again, it's hard to get to the top.  I listen to podcasts and those "pros" don't win gpps very much either.  It really is a bit of a dart throw.  You are doing pretty well winning a couple hundred in a couple years.  

Dodds is one of the runners of this site.  In the pay content (which is reasonable and worth the $) he does a couple articles where he suggests a couple LUs, but they are mostly for cash.  He does suggestions on what low % guys he might like for tourney options too though.  

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Thank you SO much Karma!!  I truly appreciate it and it has given me a lot to choose from so I will keep you posted as to how it's working on game day - if you're online.

I mean - I look at how Todd Gurley has been performing and ask myself "How could I go wrong in choosing him in my lineup?"  Then he chokes!  It happens all the time and I guess my question is what makes a player do so well for a week or two and then BAM, it doesn't end well.  Also, you were speaking of the low end players.  When I look at them, I see how many games they have played, when the last time they have played and how well they did.  I am REALLY hesitant to pick the lower end players because I don't know their record as well.  IT IS ALL SO MUCH!!

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1 minute ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

Thank you SO much Karma!!  I truly appreciate it and it has given me a lot to choose from so I will keep you posted as to how it's working on game day - if you're online.

I mean - I look at how Todd Gurley has been performing and ask myself "How could I go wrong in choosing him in my lineup?"  Then he chokes!  It happens all the time and I guess my question is what makes a player do so well for a week or two and then BAM, it doesn't end well.  Also, you were speaking of the low end players.  When I look at them, I see how many games they have played, when the last time they have played and how well they did.  I am REALLY hesitant to pick the lower end players because I don't know their record as well.  IT IS ALL SO MUCH!!

I say just keep hammering at the guys that get a lot of touches and targets.   They will have duds, and it sucks, but you probably can't go wrong having Gurley or Bell in your LU each week.  It will probably work out over the long haul.   

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4 hours ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

How do I utilize Dodds information and is it free?

Also, here is the lineup for one of the games for week 17 - you tell me what you think.

QB - J. Goff

RB - T. Gurley and A. Collins

WR - J. Smith-Schuster, S. Watkins, and K. Cole who is now questionable

TE - J. Doyle

K - D. Hopkins

D - Steelers

Goff likely won't play much. Rams have nothing to play for. Scratch Watkins and Gurley for the same reason. Pittsburgh could pull starters if NE is up big vs Jets at the half. The Jacksonville outcome doesn't matter so if Cole is injured at all, he'll likely rest.

This is a tough week due to players getting pulled.

Karma has given good advice. If you're playing less than $10, I'd stick to the single entries, especially the ones with 4000 entries or less. Yeah, the top prize will be less than $500, but you'll have an easier chance of getting in the top 10 (although it still takes luck to get there).

My favorite tournament this year has been the $15 (max 3 entries). I can be level with big boys and still have a shot at a big payoff. It generally has a $4000 top prize yet only has less than 2000 entries. I've played the $7 (5 max) tourney but I have trouble coming up with 5 entries I like. I usually vary my QBs and it's hard to find 5 different QBs.

For roster construction, I start with the QB, usually getting a 2nd tier guy against a bad defense (vs QBs). I then add a TE or WR from the same team as the QB. I usually don't stack more than 2 in the smaller tourneys. I next get RBs and unless there is a cheap 2nd stringer promoted to 3 down 1st string duties (like Bernard a few weeks ago), I stick with the big guys (last week was Gurley and Elliott). Again, I look for RBs going against bad RB defenses. From here , I get a defense near the top of Dodds' rankings. Next is TE, if I haven't already filled it. I take Kelce if I can fit him in, Doyle if he's against a bad TE defense, or an injury promotion like Gates (last week). If none of those work, I go cheap. Then, I let the optimizer suggest the rest and pick and choose who I want from there.  These last 4 guys is where I get my uniqueness (and the differences in the lineups - other than QB).

Hope that helps.

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Hoosier - one thing I have not really understood is 2nd tier.  When you say getting a 2nd tier guy against a bad defense, what does that really mean.  Do I not pick say Russell or Keenum?

There is SO much to look at when choosing! Why would you scratch Gurley when he has racked up so many fantasy points in the last 2 games?  Is it who they are playing?  With that being said, when choosing a player, is it based on the defense of the other team?  What is the MOST important factor to look at?

Thanks for getting back to me!!

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Scratching Gurley because he may sit, or at the very least , be pulled early with the other Rams starters. You can't afford to lose your player, especially a high priced one, for even a quarter of the game.

I lie choosing players who are projected high against bad defenses vs their position. The bad defense part is generally figured into the projection already but the projections don't account for the extremes. Bad defenses are the ones that give up the extremes (the scores you want in a GPP). For example, Buffalo has been terrible against RBs, especially over the last half of the season. If I'm choosing between 2 RBs projected equally, and one of them is playing Buffalo, I'm taking him.

I don't know if there is a most important factor, but touches has to be very high on the list. This week, potential playing time is probably at the top.

By 2nd tier I just mean, not the top. There really isn't any demarcation line. Last week I had Cam, Rivers, and Winston (4,5, and 15 by salary). None were great but as a group, they scored better than Wilson, Brady, and Brees (1,2, and 3). For this week, I'll stay away from Brady, Wilson, and Ben.

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58 minutes ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

Hoosier - one thing I have not really understood is 2nd tier.  When you say getting a 2nd tier guy against a bad defense, what does that really mean.  Do I not pick say Russell or Keenum?

There is SO much to look at when choosing! Why would you scratch Gurley when he has racked up so many fantasy points in the last 2 games?  Is it who they are playing?  With that being said, when choosing a player, is it based on the defense of the other team?  What is the MOST important factor to look at?

Thanks for getting back to me!!

I am not sure if you are trolling or not, but if you have been playing for 2 years, it seems you would have been exposed to some of the basic ideas and strategies that you are asking about.  

Daily fantasy games have very little to do with what a player may have done last week or the week before.  It is all about the upcoming match up.  It is all about predicting which teams will score the most...which teams will get out to big leads and run the ball more...which teams will be playing from behind and throw the ball in catch up mode...Details like these help you choose who may or may not be a good play in a given week.  Knowing what the opposing defenses are giving up is critical to success.  For example, NYG and CLE have given up big numbers to TEs this season.  TEs playing against these defenses get a boost.  There are many important factors to consider.

Specifically, it is unlikely that Gurley will play much, if at all, this week.  The Rams have been talking about resting starters since they are locked in for their playoff spot.  Week 17 is a very awkward week for dfs and the typical analysis for picking lineups doesn't quite play out like it has for the last 16 weeks.

 

I would advise getting away from the big tournaments for a while.  Try your luck at playing some 100 man 50/50's.  You only need to outscore 50 people rather than tens of thousands.  The payouts are much less, but your winning percentage will increase dramatically.

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Trolling? Really?

Just because I have been playing for 2 years does NOT mean that I understand everything there is to know.  I have used my own strategies and ideas and they have not been working which is why I have reached out for help.

 

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4 hours ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

Trolling? Really?

Just because I have been playing for 2 years does NOT mean that I understand everything there is to know.  I have used my own strategies and ideas and they have not been working which is why I have reached out for help.

 

Do yourself a favor and just play very small the remainder of this year, then pay the $35 or so for the Insider Pro Plus package, its a yearly subscription.

Read

Cracking FanDuel
The Definitive Guide to Winning FanDuel NFL Contests

then read it again, then next year apply what you have learned and post here regularly.

 

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Thank you guys!!

Don't know if Galileo was throwing shade at me but I am serious about playing this - I love it and not just to win.  I have learned more about football playing fantasy than watching it on TV each week.  It FORCES me to read about each individual player and when I know who they are on screen, makes it even better! My son and I have a great time together talking football now! So a little disclaimer here - I'm into this as much as the next sport fanatic and I aint goin nowhere!

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1 hour ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

Thank you guys!!

Don't know if Galileo was throwing shade at me but I am serious about playing this - I love it and not just to win.  I have learned more about football playing fantasy than watching it on TV each week.  It FORCES me to read about each individual player and when I know who they are on screen, makes it even better! My son and I have a great time together talking football now! So a little disclaimer here - I'm into this as much as the next sport fanatic and I aint goin nowhere!

I would not put it past one of the regulars around here firing up an alias to stir the pot for giggles.  It seemed a little strange to me for someone to show up at the end of a season seeking advice, and the low post count made me skeptical.    I gave you sincere advice, though I'm no expert.  I wish you nothing but the best.  Good luck and enjoy!

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I appreciate the feedback.  It may be the end of the season but it's not completely over and if I still have a chance to submit a lineup that will win, it's not a complete waste of time.  Whether I get the information now or at the beginning of the season, it will still help me either way because next time I will have a better understanding and have even a better season.

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17 hours ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

I appreciate the feedback.  It may be the end of the season but it's not completely over and if I still have a chance to submit a lineup that will win, it's not a complete waste of time.  Whether I get the information now or at the beginning of the season, it will still help me either way because next time I will have a better understanding and have even a better season.

Write down what you've learned. Bookmark sites you have found. It's amazing how much you'll forget.

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I follow advice from the smartest brohammers on this site and I still haven't won ####, so don't feel so bad.  And then when I actually have a rare sweat opportunity Wentz gets hurt.  :lmao:

 

Isn't Cracking Fanduel free at some point every year?  

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On 12/27/2017 at 4:32 PM, AudibleAudie7 said:

What is Dodds?

Owner of the site you are on and the guy who put me on Stafford and Lewis and seattle d

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37 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Owner of the site you are on and the guy who put me on Stafford and Lewis and seattle d

You needed him to tell you to play Stafford and D.Lewis? :P

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17 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

You needed him to tell you to play Stafford and D.Lewis? :P

Evidently because “my” lineups have Ryan and Wilson and Mahones. Stafford sub 10%

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6 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Evidently because “my” lineups have Ryan and Wilson and Mahones. Stafford sub 10%

Right there with you.  Wilson and Julio are just about dead to me.  

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The lineup Dodds gave out scored 125.  

15 in $27.70 out.  Hit on 8 50/50s and my $1 tourney lineup scored 137 to return $2.50

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15 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

The lineup Dodds gave out scored 125.  

15 in $27.70 out.  Hit on 8 50/50s and my $1 tourney lineup scored 137 to return $2.50

Is this from his article or his blog? 

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Well I didn't have time to change my lineup with Ben and Bell!! I had to be at work at 7 am this morning at the hospital and we are not allowed on the internet while working so I couldn't check the 90 minutes before the game to see what the status was.  I should have just changed the damn thing!  Oh well - I won $0.75!  LOLOLOLOL!!!

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8 minutes ago, KarmaPolice said:

Is this from his article or his blog? 

Blog

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8 minutes ago, AudibleAudie7 said:

Well I didn't have time to change my lineup with Ben and Bell!! I had to be at work at 7 am this morning at the hospital and we are not allowed on the internet while working so I couldn't check the 90 minutes before the game to see what the status was.  I should have just changed the damn thing!  Oh well - I won $0.75!  LOLOLOLOL!!!

1. You shouldn't be playing if you can't be in front of the computer the hour prior to kickoff.  It's already a losing proposition by 10-16% and you're making it worse with habits like this.

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This is NOT the norm for me! I usually AM in front of the computer all the way up to kickoff but today it just couldn't be helped so I'm not picking up bad habits - I know the risk I took not changing my lineup - so don't chastise me too much!  Gee...

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