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*** Official 2018 Chargers Thread **** (1 Viewer)

Just Win Baby said:
I gathered elsewhere that Verrett's salary is not yet guaranteed, so he may not actually make it to the final roster. In that case, I prefer releasing Verrett, keeping King at nickel/slot corner, and finding another solution at FS. But it complicates matters if they have to hold onto Verrett until after the draft, since they can't clear his salary off the cap to sign a veteran, which seemingly keeps that position in play for a high round draft pick.
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I say keep him....when healthy hes awesome.....health is the problem not the talent

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
I say keep him....when healthy hes awesome.....health is the problem not the talent
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But he has only played in 25 of 64 possible career games, and he wasn't healthy in several of the games he played. He hasn't actually been healthy OR played well since 2015. And he is due $8.5M this year.

No thanks. I don't care if he is talented, Hayward and Williams are top 10 NFL corners, and King is an elite nickel/slot corner. They don't need to take a risk on Verrett, especially at that price.

 
Just Win Baby said:
But he has only played in 25 of 64 possible career games, and he wasn't healthy in several of the games he played. He hasn't actually been healthy OR played well since 2015. And he is due $8.5M this year.

No thanks. I don't care if he is talented, Hayward and Williams are top 10 NFL corners, and King is an elite nickel/slot corner. They don't need to take a risk on Verrett, especially at that price.
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Outright cut him??? Trade possibly

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Outright cut him??? Trade possibly
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No one is going to give anything of value for a guy who is due $8.5M this year and is then a UFA and is coming off playing a total of 5 games over the past 2 seasons.

I'm sure he will be signed after he is released based solely on talent/potential, but at nothing close to 1 year, $8.5M.

 
I doubt the Giants would do it, but should the Chargers try to trade Mike Williams and maybe a 2nd rounder for Beckham Jr.?

Seems like the division and somewhat the conference are open this year - why not give it a shot?

 
Gr00vus said:
I doubt the Giants would do it, but should the Chargers try to trade Mike Williams and maybe a 2nd rounder for Beckham Jr.?

Seems like the division and somewhat the conference are open this year - why not give it a shot?
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IMO no, for these reasons:

  1. IMO the Giants would require a 2018 first round pick plus other compelling value, like two more 2nd/3rd round picks or next year's first rounder. I suppose they might be willing to view Mike Williams as a substitute for some of that, but I think the 2018 first rounder is probably non-negotiable. That implies the Chargers would be trading away a starting DT or FS in the deal, both positions of urgent need.
  2. Beckham wants $20M per year or something close to it. I don't see how the Chargers could clear the cap space needed for that without harming the roster.
  3. Upgrading WR is not a need. I heard a GM on NFL radio today state that the purpose of free agency is to address team needs in such a way as to free the team to draft BPA in the draft. That makes pretty good sense to me, and I don't think WR should even be on their radar for this draft. (Though I said the same thing last year, and they drafted MW at 1.7...)
This doesn't really seem like Telesco's style. He is more of a slow and steady wins the race kind of guy.

 
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Former Eagles DB Jaylen Watkins headed to the Chargers on a one-year deal, source says. Can play corner or safety but likely to be a safety for LAC.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Former Eagles DB Jaylen Watkins headed to the Chargers on a one-year deal, source says. Can play corner or safety but likely to be a safety for LAC.
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Why? He only played 167 snaps last year and did not play well in those snaps. Surely he is not seen as the starting FS, in which case I don't really get it.

 
There is a lot of speculation about the Chargers being interested in drafting Lamar Jackson at 1.17. I don't happen to believe he will be there... once Darnold, Rosen, Mayfield, and Allen are all drafted in the top 10, I think another QB needy team will trade ahead of 1.17 to draft Jackson. I certainly hope the Chargers would not consider trading up for him.

All that said, let's examine some history from the past 20 years. Since the jury is largely out on the 2017 QBs, let's examine QBs drafted from 1997 to 2016. And before going any further, let me clearly state that there is obvious subjectivity in my assessment of these samples. YMMV, though I doubt substantially.

There were 53 QBs drafted in the first round within that span. Of that group, here are the ones who have demonstrated the ability to be long term above average NFL starters, i.e., franchise QBs, or seem to have the potential to do so:

Year Rnd Pick Name
2016 1 1 Jared Goff
2016 1 2 Carson Wentz
2012 1 1 Andrew Luck
2011 1 1 Cam Newton
2009 1 1 Matthew Stafford
2008 1 3 Matt Ryan
2005 1 24 Aaron Rodgers
2004 1 1 Eli Manning
2004 1 4 Philip Rivers
2004 1 11 Ben Roethlisberger
2003 1 1 Carson Palmer
2001 1 1 Michael Vick
1999 1 2 Donovan McNabb
1998 1 1 Peyton Manning

I said long term above average starters, so did not include players like Cutler, Flacco, or Alex Smith. I suppose one might argue that Flacco or Smith have been franchise QBs and should qualify, it just seems to me that they have rarely been above average. Some might also quibble with my choice of Vick here.

Nevertheless, my selections yield a success rate of 14/53 = 26%. Not a good success rate. Now consider that 12 of those 14 were taken in the top 3 picks of their respective drafts. It is exceedingly rare that franchise NFL QBs fall in the draft.

If the Chargers draft a QB with their current first round pick, they will draft him at 1.17. 208 QBs were drafted 17th or later from 1997-2016. Of that group, here are the ones who have demonstrated the ability to be above average NFL starters or seem to have the potential to do so:

Year Rnd Pick Name
2014 2 36 Derek Carr
2014 2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo
2012 3 75 Russell Wilson
2012 3 88 Nick Foles
2012 4 102 Kirk Cousins
2005 1 24 Aaron Rodgers
2001 2 32 Drew Brees
2000 6 199 Tom Brady

Again, I said above average, so did not include guys like Matt Hasselbeck or Flacco, and I could see an argument that choosing Carr and/or Garoppolo is premature. So again, YMMV. My selections yield a success rate of 8/208 = 3.8%.

However, this is distorted by the later rounds, so what if we just looked at first round picks at 1.17 and later and second round picks? That reduces our pool of drafted QBs to 38 and reduces the number of (potential) long term above average QBs from above to just 3 – Brees, Rodgers, Carr, and Garappolo. That is a success rate of 4/38 = 10.5%. Still bad, and that is putting faith into both Carr and Garappolo, who have not proven they can do it yet.

If the Chargers draft a QB, it seems likely they will draft Jackson as the 5th QB drafted. 166 QBs were drafted as the 5th QB or later in their respective drafts from 1997-2016. Of that group, here are the ones who have demonstrated the ability to be above average NFL starters or seem to have the potential to do so:

Year Rnd Pick Name
2014 2 62 Jimmy Garoppolo
2012 3 75 Russell Wilson
2012 3 88 Nick Foles
2012 4 102 Kirk Cousins
2000 6 199 Tom Brady

Same caveats as above. 5/166 = 3.0% success rate, which is the worst yet.

No matter how you look at past data, the success rate of drafting Jackson at 1.17 is not good. I realize that past performance does not predict future results, but I hope the interest in Jackson is a smoke screen and Telesco goes DT, FS, RT, or LB with the pick.

 
When selecting QBs, those taken in the first 5 overall picks have about a 50% chance of making it.  Outside the top 5 i believe it falls to something like 1/30.  The guys that make it that fall out of the top 5 either were short or came from a small school usually.  Brees and wilson were short. Roethlsberger came from a small school. Other guys outside the top 5 make it but arent stars.  Favre fell because he had 30 inches of intestines removed after an accident and who knew if hed ever be good.  

 
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Just Win Baby said:
Great, DT Liuget has been suspended the first 4 games for violating the drug policy. I was advocating for the team to keep him, not sure what to think now.

If they cut him prior to June 1, they could save $6.5M against the 2018 cap. If they designate him as a post June 1 cut, they could save $8M against the 2018 cap by shifting $1.5M of the dead money to the 2019 cap. Given what I posted above, that suggests they would have up to $18.7M to spend without any other cuts (besides Mebane and Hairston) or restructures. I suppose they could do that and go after Suh. That doesn't really seem like Telesco's style, though.

Or perhaps the team could push Liuget to restructure to open up more cap space.

Thoughts?
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Liuget has been restructured. His base salary for 2018 was cut from $8.05M to $935K, with $2.6M in possible bonuses/incentives. Very nice job by Telesco here to open up about $2.7M in 2018 cap space without losing a contributor at a position that is already weak and in need of improvement, and to do it without adding to future cap commitments. Liuget can be released or traded after the 2018 season with a hit of just $1.5M in dead cap money. So the pressure is now squarely on Liuget to perform well enough to earn his roster spot beyond 2018. :thumbup:  

I would love to see this free cap space (along with Mebane's, as necessary) used to sign a veteran DT. And I would still want to prioritize DT in the draft if possible.

 
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Just Win Baby said:
Opponents:

  • Home games (7): KC, DEN, OAK, BAL, CIN, ARI, SF
  • Neutral site game (1): TEN (London)
  • Away games (8): KC, DEN, OAK, PIT, CLE, BUF, LAR, SEA
Things to consider:

  • 2018 opponents had a combined 123-133 (0.480) record in 2017. In 2017, Chargers' opponents had a combined 117-139 (0.457) record, so this suggests a slight increase in schedule difficulty.
  • In 2018, the Chargers play 8 games against teams that had winning records in 2017. They played 7 games in 2017 against teams that ended with winning records, so again this suggests a slight increase in schedule difficulty.
  • They play 6 of those games against teams that had winning records in 2017 away from home, although one of those is in LA at the Rams.
  • In 2017, the Chargers played 4 games on the East coast that started at 1 pm EST. In 2018, it appears they could have 3 such games - @CLE, @PIT, @BUF. Without going back to look at prior seasons, that is about as low a number of such games as can be expected.
All in all, it doesn't look too bad. Obviously, if the Chargers are going to make the playoffs, win the division, or achieve anything else significant, they will have to beat some good teams. But that is always a given.

The best case scenario is probably winning 11 games, which presumably means winning 6-7 of the home games listed above. I wouldn't bet my house on it, but I think they can win the division in 2018. Some reasons for that optimism:

  • The team now has a year under Lynn and his staff and system, so they should be more comfortable out of the gate. And Lynn should be better at in game decision-making.
  • The PK situation will be better, which should mean it doesn't cost the team multiple wins in 2018.
  • The OL should be better, if only through the return of Lamp, though there should be other positive changes as well.
  • The run defense should be better, since it should be a focus area in the offseason.
  • Mike Williams should be significantly better in 2018, and, given his particular skill set, could help the team perform much better in the red zone.
  • This year's division winner, KC, may be breaking in a new QB who has played in 1 career game.
:football:
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The Chargers schedule is now out. Comments:

  • It ranks #24 in schedule difficulty (9th easiest) ranked by last year's winning percentage. This is not a reliable predictor, but better to be on that end of the spectrum than the opposite.
  • Love the week 8 bye.
  • The 1 pm EST road game starts are as expected. Having just 3 of them is a good thing.
  • Just 1 prime time game - Thursday night @KC in week 15. Although it seems possible they could have a late season game flexed into prime time if they are winning the division.
  • Only play consecutive road games twice, and in each case one of the games is in CA. ETA: I failed to account for the London game here. The Chargers actually play 4 straight road games, with their bye in the middle: @CLE, TEN in London, bye, @SEA, @OAK. That is a tough stretch... they probably need to win at least 3 of those games to have a shot at a strong season.
  • I like opening at home vs KC in Mahomes' second game as a NFL starter. That would be a big win to open the season.
  • I no longer think 11 wins is a best case scenario. If the team avoids major injuries, I could see 12-13 wins as a best case. Of course, I could also see underperforming to 8-9 wins and missing the playoffs... it is the Chargers, after all.
 
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Good feeling this season. Stay healthy. Get a run stopper or two in the draft.get oline depth. The division can be had

 Grudens a joke. Mahomes first year and denver rolling with case

 
Just Win Baby said:
Even though I would have waited on Hayward, I think he is a great player, so extending him is still a good thing. I was just hoping to hold his cap number down for 2018 in order to make room for another strong free agent, but it appears that isn't happening. I haven't seen details of his contract extension yet, so hopefully his cap number for this season didn't go up too much. Regardless, glad he will be a Charger for at least 4 more seasons.
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Telesco did a nice job with this extension. Here is where Hayward's cap hits currently rank among CBs for the remainder of his contract:

  • 2018 - $6.83M = #26
  • 2019 - $10M = #17
  • 2020 - $10.75M = #13
  • 2021 - $10.75M = #9
Assuming Hayward continues to play well, those cap hits will look a lot better as we get closer to those future seasons, and other CBs sign new contracts/extensions. Also:

  • His salary is guaranteed through 2019, but he can be cut or traded after the 2019 season with $4M in dead cap money and after the 2020 season with $2M in dead cap money. So the team has outs if needed.
  • He will turn 33 entering the 2022 season, so the team should be in a nice position to sign him to another extension without breaking the bank or let him walk in favor of a younger/cheaper option.
 
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bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
Good feeling this season. Stay healthy. Get a run stopper or two in the draft.get oline depth. The division can be had

 Grudens a joke. Mahomes first year and denver rolling with case
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Gruden's a joke?  Try Vance Joseph.  Denver ain't going anywhere with him at the helm.  He's clueless out there, quite often, and you can really see it.  Even with that favorable schedule.

Chargers look promising imo.  Last year could've/should've seen much better results.  They were on the brink or at least closer than most people realize.  I think things fall their way this year.

 
Rodrigo Duterte said:
Gruden's a joke?  Try Vance Joseph.  Denver ain't going anywhere with him at the helm.  He's clueless out there, quite often, and you can really see it.  Even with that favorable schedule.

Chargers look promising imo.  Last year could've/should've seen much better results.  They were on the brink or at least closer than most people realize.  I think things fall their way this year.
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Yeah im not big on the bolts coah either between him and a kicker disaster.

I think the gruden thing will be a bad move....just my crystal ball

 
What division has the worst Head Coaches?  I'm torn on Gruden, not sure what will happen there.  Reid isn't bad but could be better.  Broncos have one of the worst out there.  Chargers have issues but some think he may make strides.  Tough call.

Chiefs seem like they are definitely in the best position to capitalize.  Although I'm still inclined to think the Chargers are going to surprise people.

 
Some mock draft thoughts. Starting with this mock draft. Here are a few alternatives for the Chargers if the draft fell the same way.

Draft #1:

  • 1.17 (17) – DT DaRon Payne, Alabama – immediate starter
  • 2.16 (48) – DT Tim Settle, Virginia Tech – doubled down and convert the interior DL from a primary weakness to a strength
  • 3.20 (84) – S Terrell Edmunds, Virginia Tech – projected as starting FS; could have actually taken him in the 4th in this mock draft, but I am skeptical he will make it that far in the real draft
  • 4.19 (119) – LB Fred Warner, BYU – LB is a need with Emanuel, Perryman, and even (ugh) Pullard all set to be UFAs after 2018 season
  • 5.18 (155) – OT Will Richardson, NC State – looking for upside potential at this point in the draft; doubt he makes it this far in the real draft
  • 6.17 (191) – TE Tyler Conklin, Central Michigan – another upside pick; if he recovers fully from his injury, he could return higher round value
  • 7.33 (251) – RB Darrell Williams, LSU – another upside pick; surprised he went undrafted in this mock
I think there is virtually no chance Telesco would draft DT back to back in the first and second rounds. But just imagine an interior DL rotation of Payne, Settle, Liuget, and Philon with Bosa and Ingram on the edges. That would be one of the best DLs in the league, backed by one of the best secondaries. It could make the Chargers the best overall defense.

This is my favorite of these drafts, since I think DT is the most significant need for the Chargers. It is a position that Telesco has neglected for too long in the draft, drafting just 2 DTs in 32 picks, with a 5th rounder (Carrethers) and a 6th rounder (Philon).

Draft #2:

I think the Chargers have to draft OT in the first if they hope to draft a starting RT; it is not a deep position in this draft, at least not for immediate starters IMO. Barksdale is the current weak link on the Chargers OL now that Pouncey was signed to play C, and releasing Barksdale would save $3.7M against the 2018 cap. This mock draft shows OT McGlinchey going at 1.16, but it shows QB Jackson going at 1.24. I think someone will take Jackson in the top 16. If that allowed McGlinchey to reach the Chargers, they could take him at 1.17 and start him at RT.

  • 1.17 (17) – OT Mike McGlinchey, Notre Dame - best OT in the draft; immediate starter
  • 2.16 (48) – DT Tim Settle, Virginia Tech
  • 3.20 (84) – S Terrell Edmunds, Virginia Tech
  • 4.19 (119) – LB Fred Warner, BYU
  • 5.18 (155) – DE Chad Thomas, Miami - upside pick to provide depth behind Bosa and Ingram
  • 6.17 (191) – TE Tyler Conklin, Central Michigan
  • 7.33 (251) – RB Darrell Williams, LSU
The thing that makes me nervous about this draft is the possibility that Settle isn't there in the second round.

Draft #3:

In this mock, LBs Vander Esch and Evans were both available at 1.17. The team could take one of them, which could then change some later picks. IMO the Chargers need Sam and Mike LBs more than Will, so I would choose LVE, who projects as a starting Mike and also appears to be a better athlete.

  • 1.17 (17) – LB Leighton Vander Esch, Boise State - immediate starter over Perryman... or maybe over Emanuel...?
  • 2.16 (48) – DT Tim Settle, Virginia Tech
  • 3.20 (84) – S Terrell Edmunds, Virginia Tech
  • 4.19 (119) – DT Derrick Nnadi, Florida State - doubling down as in draft #1 above
  • 5.18 (155) – OT Will Richardson, NC State
  • 6.17 (191) – TE Tyler Conklin, Central Michigan
  • 7.33 (251) – RB Darrell Williams, LSU
I like this draft, but not as much as the ones above, since Perryman and Emanuel are good enough for 2018, which means LB can become a priority next offseason. In other words, upgrading to LVE is probably less impactful in 2018 than going DT/OT. Plus, it would really hurt if Settle isn't there in the second.

Draft #4:

  • 1.17 (17) – DT DaRon Payne, Alabama
  • 2.16 (48) – LB Darius Leonard, South Carolina State – immediate starter over Perryman? or a rotational player who would start in 2019?
  • 3.20 (84) – S Terrell Edmunds, Virginia Tech – projected as starting FS; could have actually taken him in the 4th in this mock draft, but I am skeptical he will make it that far in the real draft
  • 4.19 (119) – DT Derrick Nnadi, Florida State - doubling down as in draft #1 above
  • 5.18 (155) – OT Will Richardson, NC State – looking for upside potential at this point in the draft; doubt he makes it this far in the real draft
  • 6.17 (191) – TE Tyler Conklin, Central Michigan – another upside pick; if he recovers fully from his injury, he could return higher round value
  • 7.33 (251) – RB Darrell Williams, LSU – another upside pick; surprised he went undrafted in this mock
This is my least favorite of these 4 drafts, since I think the other drafts all provide 3 starters out of the gate, whereas I'm not sure about Leonard.

Thoughts?

 
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Gruden is like most good head coaches.   If they have a star QB they will win a lot.  If not they can struggle. 

 
@Just Win Baby great job...no idea who most of them guys are  but i agree. Stock up dt and line backers and the defense unit could be elite. Josey jewel lb from iowa is a dude who tested awful at the combine but hes a ball player. But him in the middle with a 4th round pick and u might have something

 
Just Win Baby said:
Liuget has been restructured. His base salary for 2018 was cut from $8.05M to $935K, with $2.6M in possible bonuses/incentives. Very nice job by Telesco here to open up about $2.7M in 2018 cap space without losing a contributor at a position that is already weak and in need of improvement, and to do it without adding to future cap commitments. Liuget can be released or traded after the 2018 season with a hit of just $1.5M in dead cap money. So the pressure is now squarely on Liuget to perform well enough to earn his roster spot beyond 2018. :thumbup:  

I would love to see this free cap space (along with Mebane's, as necessary) used to sign a veteran DT. And I would still want to prioritize DT in the draft if possible.
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How do you think that conversation went? I imagine it was something like:

"Well Corey, you can restructure or we'll be releasing you."

"Restructure please."

The division seems to be there for the taking, the Chargers have the best QB in the division...

 
This guy's intel was pretty solid last year: Chargers Draft Rumors

Summary:

  • Roquan Smith #1 on Chargers board, but won't be there.
  • Fitzpatrick #2 on Chargers board, but won't be there.
  • McGlinchey off Chargers board due to interview.
  • Remaining target pool includes 3 DT, 1 LB, and 1 S (James). But James won't be there.
  • The 3 DT are from this group: Vea, Payne, Hurst, Bryan. The LB seems likely to be Evans. So the pick should be one of these players.
I would prefer DT, in this order: Vea, Payne, Bryan, Hurst. DT seems like it would be much more impactful for the Chargers, since drafting LB implies putting Brown, Perryman, or Emanuel on the bench. But, really, I am okay with any of the players named in this post. Every one of them should start on day one.

 
Just Win Baby said:
This guy's intel was pretty solid last year: Chargers Draft Rumors

Summary:

  • Roquan Smith #1 on Chargers board, but won't be there.
  • Fitzpatrick #2 on Chargers board, but won't be there.
  • McGlinchey off Chargers board due to interview.
  • Remaining target pool includes 3 DT, 1 LB, and 1 S (James). But James won't be there.
  • The 3 DT are from this group: Vea, Payne, Hurst, Bryan. The LB seems likely to be Evans. So the pick should be one of these players.
I would prefer DT, in this order: Vea, Payne, Bryan, Hurst. DT seems like it would be much more impactful for the Chargers, since drafting LB implies putting Brown, Perryman, or Emanuel on the bench. But, really, I am okay with any of the players named in this post. Every one of them should start on day one.
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Are you o.k. with how things worked out? Not being snarky, just curious. I know nothing about James, but the Chargers needed a S and the top 2 DTs were gone, so it seems like they did the right thing given the situation.

 
Gr00vus said:
Are you o.k. with how things worked out? Not being snarky, just curious. I know nothing about James, but the Chargers needed a S and the top 2 DTs were gone, so it seems like they did the right thing given the situation.
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made a strong unit stronger. is he a run support safety? can he cover? 

 
Any defensive line help out there to be had today? It'd be depressing if they go in to this season with basically the same cast of clowns at DT as last year.

 
Gr00vus said:
Just Win Baby said:
This guy's intel was pretty solid last year: Chargers Draft Rumors

Summary:

  • Roquan Smith #1 on Chargers board, but won't be there.
  • Fitzpatrick #2 on Chargers board, but won't be there.
  • McGlinchey off Chargers board due to interview.
  • Remaining target pool includes 3 DT, 1 LB, and 1 S (James). But James won't be there.
  • The 3 DT are from this group: Vea, Payne, Hurst, Bryan. The LB seems likely to be Evans. So the pick should be one of these players.
I would prefer DT, in this order: Vea, Payne, Bryan, Hurst. DT seems like it would be much more impactful for the Chargers, since drafting LB implies putting Brown, Perryman, or Emanuel on the bench. But, really, I am okay with any of the players named in this post. Every one of them should start on day one.
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Are you o.k. with how things worked out? Not being snarky, just curious. I know nothing about James, but the Chargers needed a S and the top 2 DTs were gone, so it seems like they did the right thing given the situation.
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As I said, I was okay with any of the players named in my last post, which included James. Very happy with the pick and surprised that he was on the board at that point. The reason I was more focused on DTs is that I expected both Fitzpatrick and James to be off the board in the top 10.

bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
made a strong unit stronger. is he a run support safety? can he cover?
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He can play FS, SS, and dime LB, and is strong against both the run and pass, including covering and blitzing. Article from several weeks ago: Derwin James Is the Best Defensive Player in the NFL Draft

 
Gr00vus said:
Any defensive line help out there to be had today? It'd be depressing if they go in to this season with basically the same cast of clowns at DT as last year.
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My top choice is DT Hurst, assuming he checked out medically from the Chargers perspective. My next choice is DT Settle. If those guys are gone, they could go for DT Nnadi, but he may be more of a third round talent.

They could also potentially target an OT in the second, hopefully Connor Williams if so, but I prefer Hurst or Settle.

 
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The fact this is out there, makes me think it isn't true....cant see burning a pick this early on QB

Mason Rudolph of interest to Chargers?    Fri Apr 27, 12:53 PM

The Los Angeles Chargers are reportedly very interested in finding a way to land Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph in the second round of the NFL Draft on Friday, April 27.

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
The fact this is out there, makes me think it isn't true....cant see burning a pick this early on QB

Mason Rudolph of interest to Chargers?    Fri Apr 27, 12:53 PM

The Los Angeles Chargers are reportedly very interested in finding a way to land Oklahoma State QB Mason Rudolph in the second round of the NFL Draft on Friday, April 27.
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Please, no. :thumbdown:  

 
bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
ok @Just Win Baby -  chime in on this DT Justin Jones from NC state.
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I’m happy for Jones, but IMO this pick was a reach. I probably watched more than 90% of his games at State, and he rarely stood out. Perhaps that is because he played alongside Chubb, Hill, and Street, but the flip side of that is that those guys should have drawn attention that enabled Jones to make more plays.

I'm afraid he is a low floor, low ceiling NFL player who will likely be a backup rotational player. I don’t understand taking him over DTs Phillips and Settle, who other sources graded much higher. Obviously, the Chargers grade differently, so I hope their scouts are correct.

Here is a positive take: NC State DT Justin Jones is criminally underrated

Here is a negative take from his NFL Draft Profile, which projected him to go in rounds 4-5:

He's tough enough at the point of attack to give him a shot as a rotational defensive lineman if he's able to add a little more size, but his shot may come late or undrafted as he lacks the athletic traits and overall production teams will be looking for... Doesn't really hold the point of attack like a gap control tackle and lacks the get-off of a penetrator... Offers very little pass rush...
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The positive take above was written after he stood out during Senior Bowl practice, which caused the author to go back to review his game tape. Whereas the NFL draft profile guy presumably has to look at tape for so many players that perhaps he didn't give Jones a fair shake. At least, that is what I am hoping.

 
Speaking of Chubb, JWB, what are you thoughts on him?

BTW, like the early picks of the Chargers.  That D is gonna surprise in FF this year.  People will overlook them and we'll be able to scoop them on the cheap.

 
Draft complete. Here are the Chargers' picks with my commentary:

  • 1.17 (17) - Derwin James, S

    Huge value pick, hard to believe he slipped to 1.17. Can the steal of the draft happen with the 17th pick of the draft?
  • Can play FS, SS, slot corner, or dime LB. Given the current makeup of the roster, he should slot in as the starting FS on day one, but he can be moved around as needed.

[*]2.16 (48) - Uchenna Nwosu, SLB

  • Seems like the team reached at least a round early on him, though there is no guarantee he would have made it to their next pick.
  • It seems likely that he will play Sam/Otto LB. Emanuel is a UFA after this season, so my guess is that he opens the season as the starter, but Nwosu has claimed the majority of those snaps by the end of the season, after which they will let Emanuel walk.
  • In comparison to Emanuel, he is more athletic and more of a playmaker, and he also adds some positional versatility, as he can be used as a situational pass rusher. Adding athleticism and positional versatility was one of the themes of this draft.

[*]3.20 (84) - Justin Jones, DT

  • I posted my thoughts in a previous post. It is a third round pick, so no one could expect a guaranteed starter here... but I think there were better DTs on the board. Again, it seems like the team reached at least a round early on him.
  • Regardless, he should join the DT rotation behind Liuget and Philon, so he has a chance to make an immediate impact.

[*]4.19 (119) - Kyzir White, S/LB

  • Good value at this draft position. This makes up a bit for the reaches on Nwosu and Jones.
  • Another S/LB hybrid to join James, Phillips, and maybe even Jenkins in that role. Last season, Bradley's defense gave a lot of snaps to a S/LB hybrid in dime packages. Phillips got those snaps, and he is on a 1 year contract he just signed as a RFA. He was okay in that role last year, but better in coverage than in run defense. White should be an upgrade against the run, and he is also good in coverage. I expect he will take snaps away from Phillips as the season progresses. Then the team can let Phillips walk after the season.
  • I wouldn't be surprised to see White moved to the Will LB role in the future, with Brown possibly moved to Mike LB. Perryman is a UFA after this season, so that could lead to a 4-3 set of Nwosu (Sam), Brown (Mike), and White (Will) as starting LBs. Then, when moving to nickel or dime, any combination of them can remain on the field.

[*]5.18 (155) - Scott Quessenberry, C/G

  • Quessenberry scored well athletically at the combine, but he seems like a low floor, low ceiling player who will top out as a backup. I assume he will make the roster as a backup, but I hope we don't see him on the field anytime soon.
  • I would much rather have seen this pick used elsewhere.

    Clearly, the Chargers removed DT Settle from their board for whatever reason, because he would have been a steal here.


[*]6.17 (191) - Dylan Cantrell, WR

  • Seems like good potential for a 6th round pick. Seems like a WR/TE hybrid, and is said to be a good run blocker. The question will be whether or not he can get open against NFL defenders, given he lacks speed and athleticism. He was able to overcome this by winning contested catches in college, will that translate?

[*]7.33 (251) - Justin Jackson, RB

  • I have read some good reports on Jackson, who was projected by some sources as high as the 4th round.
  • He will presumably slot in as the backup RB behind Gordon and Ekeler. I have my doubts that his frame will hold up if he is called upon for a heavy NFL workload, but it wasn't a problem for him in college.
  • I would have drafted RB Darrell Williams of LSU, who went undrafted.

Overall:

  • Even though I wouldn't have made some of these picks, this feels like a good draft. No left field Mager-like picks. And no QB! :thumbup:  
  • I like devoting the first 4 picks to defense, and I like upgrading athleticism, speed, and positional versatility, which seemed like themes. This defense is going to be even more difficult to pass on, and the run defense should be at least marginally improved.
  • DT, LB, FS, and backup RB were needs entering the draft, and all were addressed, though I think DT still needs more help. The only position of true need not addressed was RT, but the team can probably live with one more year of Barksdale there if necessary.
Thoughts?

 
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Chargers signed these UDFAs:

  • Tony Brown, CB, Alabama
  • B.J Clay, CB, Georgia State
  • Zachary Crabtree, OT, Oklahoma State
  • Chris Durant, OT, William & Mary
  • Marcus Edmond, CB, Clemson
  • Brandon Facyson, CB, Virginia Tech
  • Zack Golditch, OG, Colorado State
  • Bijhon Jackson, DT, Arkansas
  • Albert Havili, DE, Eastern Washington
  • D’Juan Hines, LB, Houston
  • Cole Hunt, TE, TCU
  • Tevin Lawson, DE, Nicolls State
  • Ben Johnson, TE, Kansas
  • J.J. Jones, WR, West Georgia
  • Anthony Manzo-Lewis, FB, Albany
  • Detrez Newsome, RB, Western Carolina
  • Steven Richardson, DT, Minnesota
  • Nic Shimonek, QB, Texas Tech
  • Trenton Scott, OG, Grambling State
  • Kent Shelby, WR, McNeese State
  • Shane Tripucka, P, Texas A&M
Brown is the one to watch here IMO. Not that the Chargers truly need another DB, but he ran 4.35 at the combine and is known as a strong gunner on special teams. On defense, he is better against the run than the pass, but that probably doesn't matter much, since it is hard to see him getting snaps on defense with the strong secondary players ahead of him.

None of the others here look like they have much potential to make the roster.

 
So, as of now, the final roster projects to look something like this:

Offense:

  • Offense (24):

    QB (3) - Rivers, Smith/Jones
  • RB (3) - Gordon, Ekeler, Jackson (R)
  • FB (1) - Watt
  • WR (5) - Allen, Benjamin, Tyrell Williams, Mike Williams, Cantrell (R)
  • TE (3) - Henry, Green, Culkin
  • OL (9) - LT Okung, LG Feeney, C Pouncey, RG Lamp, RT Barksdale, C/G Pulley, C/G Quessenberry (R), G/T Schofield, T Tevi

[*]Defense (26):

  • Interior DL (6) - Liuget, Mebane, Philon, Jones (R), Square, TBD
  • Edge (4) - Bosa, Ingram, Rochell, Landrum?
  • LB (5) - Emanuel (Sam/Otto), Perryman (Mike), Brown (Will), Nwosu (R), Dzubnar
  • CB (6) - Hayward, Williams, King, Verrett, Watkins, Brown (R)
  • S (5) - Addae, James, Phillips, Jenkins, White (R)

[*]Special Teams (3):

  • PK - Sturgis
  • P - Kaser
  • LS - Windt

Notes:

  1. I assume that Smith and Jones are battling for the #2 spot, and the #3 will not be retained. If the Chargers only carry 2 QBs, that leaves one spot open on offense.
  2. Though the team drafted DT Jones, it is woefully thin at DT if Mebane is released, as he should be. Particularly in the first 4 games, when Liuget is suspended. This is a real problem, and I'm afraid it will lead to the team keeping Mebane. Even if they do, they absolutely need another body in the rotation, so I suspect Telesco will be signing 1-2 free agent DTs. Hoping for Hankins.
  3. Depth at DE is also thin, with McCain gone. I could see Telesco signing a free agent here, at the expense of Landrum/Rochell.
  4. Additions of Watkins, Brown, James, and White to the secondary does not seem to leave room for Mager, which is a good thing IMO, or Michael Davis.
  5. Obviously, this roster includes Verrett. I would prefer to use his $8.5M elsewhere if he passes his physical and can be released. Like at DT/DE.
  6. In addition to #4, the addition of Nwosu at LB and resigning of Dzubnar doesn't seem to leave room for Pullard, which is a good thing IMO.
While I think Telesco still has some work to do with the DL, this looks like a contending roster. :football:  

 
Rodrigo Duterte said:
Speaking of Chubb, JWB, what are you thoughts on him?
Click to expand...
DE Chubb is a stud. Very talented with a high motor. I expect he will make many Pro Bowls. I'm sorry that he went to the Broncos, meaning the Chargers have to deal with him and Miller together twice a year.

 
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Really interesting inside info on Chargers draft, if you take it at face value: Tom Telesco Gets a Couple of Surprises During the Draft

Most interesting info to me:

  • They would have drafted LB Edmunds over James if Buffalo didn't trade up and take him at 16. And there was serious debate about drafting DT Bryan over James when on the clock. IMO they made the obviously correct decision by taking James.
  • They would have traded up to draft Bryan if he was not taken by the Jaguars. The cost of trading up is not disclosed, but I am glad that didn't happen.
  • They would have drafted RB Royce Freeman in the 3rd round if he was available, because the team "doesn’t want to be handcuffed to Melvin Gordon next year and would be able to let him walk with a back like Freeman on the roster." On the one hand, I agree with that perspective on Gordon. On the other hand, the DT situation would be that much worse if they didn't draft Jones with that pick... or maybe they would have drafted Settle in the 4th. But it didn't matter since Freeman was gone.
 
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bicycle_seat_sniffer said:
You keep mentioning settle....he was a 5th rounder...a alot of team passed on him quite a few times....
Click to expand...
Well, some sources rated him very highly. For example: NFL Draft Profile. And keep in mind, he doesn't turn 21 until July, so he is younger than most draft prospects.

I assume he dropped due to concern about his ability to keep weight off and consequences of that on how many snaps he would be able to play.

I expect he will turn out to be a steal where he was drafted.  :shrug:  

 
Eric Williams on possibility of Chargers signing Hankins:

Several fans have asked about Johnathan Hankins as a possibility for the Bolts in free agency.

At 6-foot-2 and 325 pounds, Hankins is more of a two-gap, nose tackle in a 3-4 scheme, which is one of the reasons the Indianapolis Colts moved on from the Ohio State product only one year after signing him to a three-year, $27 million deal.

Colts defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is moving Indianapolis to a 4-3 defense that relies more on speed and movement up front, similar to what the Chargers employ. For that reason, I don't see Hankins as a scheme fit.

Hankins visited the Washington Redskins in free agency, but left without a deal. Washington selected Alabama defensive tackle Da'Ron Payne in the first round instead of paying Hankins.

Look, Hankins is a good player, but the fact that the Chargers did not sign a defensive linemen in free agency and waited to select Jones in the third round tells you something about what the organization believes about the production of the defensive line last season.

While Brandon Mebane is 33 years old and the Chargers need to find his eventual replacement, the coaching staff was fine with the Cal product's performance last season. And they like young players already on the roster in Darius Philon, Damion Square and Isaac Rochell.

The Chargers could revisit the depth chart at the defensive line in the future. I don't believe Hankins is a viable option right now.
Click to expand...
I can't say I understand the organization's view on the interior DL performance last season, particularly Mebane's. Compared to last season, they swapped Jones in for Palepoi. That should be an upgrade, but that is 1 for 1... can they really be content with the existing group during Liuget's suspension? That puts them down an interior DL for the first 4 games.

I like what Miami did, trading a conditional 2019 7th round pick for a starting DT. I hope Telesco adds at least one DT soon.

 
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Hunter Henry Torn ACL in May?

That was the earliest letdown of playoff talk in Charger history.....

:wall:

Gates to the red courtesy phone....

 
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