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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Sony Michel, Patriots

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1 hour ago, bicycle_seat_sniffer said:

not really, lets all take a deep breath..... kamara was 4.56......

I think we would all agree that he timed much slower than we expected.  In that regard, it was a pretty bad time for him.  That said, as you point out, 40 time doesn't always mean much.  For me personally, I'll take another look at a few clips, but don't expect his time to impact how I value him.  He's football fast.  

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Gotta take everything with a grain of salt but life is so much easier when a guy like Michel has a better time...gives you less to think about...

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So I happened to be listening to this podcast the other day and Josh Norris suggests that people watch Sony Michels game against Vanderbilt

So I charted this game this morning. There are only 12 plays of Michel in the linked clip above. For context Vanderbilt gave up a ton of rushing yards at this point of their season while also not being able to run the ball much themselves, leading to lopsided games. The Bulldogs run for 222 yards combined in this game. Michel has about 140 of those. I haven't charted this game for Chubb but he must have had a good day as well.

Even though Michel is only involved with 12 plays in this clip, he still earns a 39 grade from me for those 12 plays. 3.25 positive traits per play is pretty good based on all of the games I have charted so far this year.

Michel is mostly running with good power in this game. His best play is at the 57 second mark of the clip, his 3rd play of the game. The play is inside zone Michel lines up in the shotgun on the left side of the QB. Michel is able to break the safeties tackle after finding a lane and quickly getting to the second level of the defense. After breaking the tackle he is able to avoid another tackle attempt with a good jump cut to the right side of the field. He uses speed to get to the edge and extend the run before finally going down to a tackle around his neck on the sideline. On the replay I just see a poor tackle attempt by the defender. Michel doesn't really do much to force the error, but he does make the defense pay for the error by cutting it back to the right, using a blocker to help him get to the outside before pursuit finally catches him. It is an impressive run. He has another good run where he scores at the end of the clip as well but I think that is his best play of this game.

Josh Norris said that Michel reminds him of DeAngelo Williams, which from my perspective is very high praise. I don't know that I agree with the comparison, but that does get my attention.

Evan Silva said he had only watched 4 games of Ronald Jones so far and said he thinks he needs to watch him more to get a feel for him. I don't feel so behind in watching these players because of that. I agree with him that watching more than 3 or 5 games is necessary for me to think I might have an idea about the players skill and ability. Easy to get a wrong impression from only 3 good or bad games in my opinion.

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"Georgia RB Sony Michel is scheduled to meet with the Miami Dolphins Friday, April 6.

Footballguys view: Miami is desperate for help in the backfield. Michel isn't a hgh round draft pick though".

Seriously...who's working for this website nowadays?

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6 hours ago, Chainz said:

"Georgia RB Sony Michel is scheduled to meet with the Miami Dolphins Friday, April 6.

Footballguys view: Miami is desperate for help in the backfield. Michel isn't a hgh round draft pick though".

Seriously...who's working for this website nowadays?

Guy goes no later than the 2nd round, and is considered by many to be the #3 pick in fantasy dynasty drafts

Imagine paying for this insight?

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I like the Kamara comp, but he doesn't look to have the same burst to my eye. I see a slightly less talented version of a very similar player. Plus let's not forget AK41's situation last year was ideal for his skill set. We'll see if Michel finds a similar setting. If Gruden takes him, for example, we could be onto something good.

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So I need some selling on Michel. When initially watching all the top backs (I try to watch a little bit of a bunch of rb back to back to start out, I feel it’s a good way to compare and then I watch the guys I feel stand out first), he was lower on my list. After watching more I think he’s a good back but still at the back end of the top tier rb for me. His ball security worries me even more, and I’m leaning towards passing on him right now in favor of Chubb or penny. Nfl teams don’t lean on rbs that cough up the football unless their Adrian Peterson in his prime. I keep hearing how he could end up the best back in the draft, he’s a 3 down guy, etc. and I’m skeptical. 

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4 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

So I need some selling on Michel. When initially watching all the top backs (I try to watch a little bit of a bunch of rb back to back to start out, I feel it’s a good way to compare and then I watch the guys I feel stand out first), he was lower on my list. After watching more I think he’s a good back but still at the back end of the top tier rb for me. His ball security worries me even more, and I’m leaning towards passing on him right now in favor of Chubb or penny. Nfl teams don’t lean on rbs that cough up the football unless their Adrian Peterson in his prime. I keep hearing how he could end up the best back in the draft, he’s a 3 down guy, etc. and I’m skeptical. 

If I were trying to sell you on him I would really work the Kamara comp.

I don't personally agree with it, but i feel like his upside if possibly higher than Chubb, Jones, and Penny because the knock on them is that they need ideal ish landing spots. Michel seems to be being sold as an all purpose, 3 down guy, so in theory the amount of places he can land and have fantasy value are more plentiful.

Imo he is more tevin coleman, than kamara. Which isnt a bad thing, I feel like it might just be more accurate.

I will admit though, Im having trouble ranking Michel in this group. I feel like Guice, and Chubb are way better. Jones, and Penny are likely not as good, but their landing spot could move them around in the rankings for me.

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On 1/28/2018 at 8:02 PM, fruity pebbles said:

His age gives me some pause. Older rookies really need to hit quickly or people are already talking about their age just as they’re hitting their stride. He’s 2 1/2 years older than Barkley and only 6 months younger than Gurley who’s been in the league 3 years already. Calvin Ridley is another older rookie. Both about the same age. Not a deal breaker obviously but something to think about.

Age matters but breakout age more important to me. One site has Muchel’s at 20.6, 41st percentile. I’m cool with that.

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44 minutes ago, Pwingles said:

If I were trying to sell you on him I would really work the Kamara comp.

I don't personally agree with it, but i feel like his upside if possibly higher than Chubb, Jones, and Penny because the knock on them is that they need ideal ish landing spots. Michel seems to be being sold as an all purpose, 3 down guy, so in theory the amount of places he can land and have fantasy value are more plentiful.

Why do Chubb, Jones and Penny need ideal landing spots more than Michel?

I don't really see Michel as a better receiving option than these guys. Maybe slightly better? If so its not by a lot. I don't really see the Kamara comparison at all.

Quote

Imo he is more tevin coleman, than kamara. Which isnt a bad thing, I feel like it might just be more accurate.

I think Jones may be more similar to Coleman than Michel is. I'm still not sure who I would compare Michel to right now.

Quote

I will admit though, Im having trouble ranking Michel in this group. I feel like Guice, and Chubb are way better. Jones, and Penny are likely not as good, but their landing spot could move them around in the rankings for me.

The main problem I am having in regards to Michel is that he only gets a handful of plays each game as he is splitting time with Chubb a lot. The Bulldogs run different plays when Michel is in the game than Chubb and I think defenses get a bit worn down thus contributing to some of Michel and Chubbs better plays towards the end of games.

I see all of the guys you mention having similar risk of time share as Michel. Perhaps others think of Michel as a better receiving option than I do. In the charting of 5 games I have for Michel he ran 11 routes which is more (positive grade) routes than I have for Guice (10) and Chubb (8) in 10 games. Ronald Jones had 10 routes in the 3 games I charted (none against Ohio State) so perhaps a slightly higher frequency for him than Michel if that held up in charting more games.

I think Guice is better than the rest of this group on the strength of his running, but the rest are a similar level of talent and I would include Freeman in that group as well. So if doing a ranking right now it would look something like this:

Tier 11

Saquon Barkley

Tier 1

Derrius Guice

Tier 2a

Royce Freeman
Rashaad Penny
Ronald Jones
Sony Michel

Tie 2a means that I could see these players moving up to tier 1 if they are drafted high enough and the situation is favorable for them getting opportunities. I considered Guice tier 1 regardless of landing spot. I still have some questions about Guice as a receiver but it is possible he is better in that area than I know just because LSU doesn't use their RB as receivers much.

I haven't decided the order of the tier 2a guys yet, see them as all fairly even in the tier.

Edited by Biabreakable
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29 minutes ago, Biabreakable said:

Why do Chubb, Jones and Penny need ideal landing spots more than Michel?

I don't really see Michel as a better receiving option than these guys. Maybe slightly better? If so its not by a lot. I don't really see the Kamara comparison at all.

I think Jones may be more similar to Coleman than Michel is. I'm still not sure who I would compare Michel to right now.

The main problem I am having in regards to Michel is that he only gets a handful of plays each game as he is splitting time with Chubb a lot. The Bulldogs run different plays when Michel is in the game than Chubb and I think defenses get a bit worn down thus contributing to some of Michel and Chubbs better plays towards the end of games.

I see all of the guys you mention having similar risk of time share as Michel. Perhaps others think of Michel as a better receiving option than I do. In the charting of 5 games I have for Michel he ran 11 routes which is more (positive grade) routes than I have for Guice (10) and Chubb (8) in 10 games. Ronald Jones had 10 routes in the 3 games I charted (none against Ohio State) so perhaps a slightly higher frequency for him than Michel if that held up in charting more games.

I think Guice is better than the rest of this group on the strength of his running, but the rest are a similar level of talent and I would include Freeman in that group as well. So if doing a ranking right now it would look something like this:

Tier 11

Saquon Barkley

Tier 1

Derrius Guice

Tier 2a

Royce Freeman
Rashaad Penny
Ronald Jones
Sony Michel

Tie 2a means that I could see these players moving up to tier 1 if they are drafted high enough and the situation is favorable for them getting opportunities. I considered Guice tier 1 regardless of landing spot. I still have some questions about Guice as a receiver but it is possible he is better in that area than I know just because LSU doesn't use their RB as receivers much.

I haven't decided the order of the tier 2a guys yet, see them as all fairly even in the tier.

Curious as to your Freeman over Chubb ranking.  Care to comment on what you saw when you reviewed that that Chubb is in a lower tier than the guys in 2a?

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14 minutes ago, Boone22 said:

Curious as to your Freeman over Chubb ranking.  Care to comment on what you saw when you reviewed that that Chubb is in a lower tier than the guys in 2a?

I edited in that I haven't decided the order of the guys yet. I was just watching Freeman last night so freshest in my mind. They are all different, but I think a similar level of talent. I am not sure Chubb belongs in this tier. He may be 2b which would mean tier two regardless of draft position or team fit.

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2 hours ago, Biabreakable said:

Why do Chubb, Jones and Penny need ideal landing spots more than Michel?

This is an observation of a narrative i keep seeing. Basically people think he is very versatile (remember, Kamara comp) So fitting this narrative, he can land anywhere and have an impact, even if there is an established early down back or COP guy, already there. The other guys are seen as less dynamic in one way or another, so their landing spot will determine where they shake out in the order of RBs behind Barkley and Guice. Again, its just a casual observation, and not everyone shares this idea, but its out there enough right now. People only want to acknowledge the fumbling issue, but everything else is solid allegedly.

I don't really see Michel as a better receiving option than these guys. Maybe slightly better? If so its not by a lot. I don't really see the Kamara comparison at all.

Kamara comp narrative fueling this, i agree with you.

I think Jones may be more similar to Coleman than Michel is. I'm still not sure who I would compare Michel to right now.

Possibly, Michel body type is closer, and i feel like his hands are average like coleman. No real wiggle like Coleman. Upright runner also. RJ2, imo, is a smaller Dalvin. Obv a better athlete on paper/testing numbers, but i feel like they play similarly even tho RJ2 is a good deal smaller overall.

The main problem I am having in regards to Michel is that he only gets a handful of plays each game as he is splitting time with Chubb a lot. The Bulldogs run different plays when Michel is in the game than Chubb and I think defenses get a bit worn down thus contributing to some of Michel and Chubbs better plays towards the end of games.

I feel like they both got healthy doses and were pretty close to evenly split when both were healthy. Ill double check this.

I see all of the guys you mention having similar risk of time share as Michel. Perhaps others think of Michel as a better receiving option than I do. In the charting of 5 games I have for Michel he ran 11 routes which is more (positive grade) routes than I have for Guice (10) and Chubb (8) in 10 games. Ronald Jones had 10 routes in the 3 games I charted (none against Ohio State) so perhaps a slightly higher frequency for him than Michel if that held up in charting more games.

I think it will be very hard to accurately gauge how good a receiver either Chubb or Michel really are when you look at how little they really threw the ball.

 

Bolded above are my replies

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Anyone care about ball security? Abdullah can be a game breaker, but can give it away and game break for the other team too. As a lions fan who has defended Abdullah’s ethic and talent but the ball security issues seem real. Anyone worried about michels ball security being an issue?

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22 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Anyone care about ball security? Abdullah can be a game breaker, but can give it away and game break for the other team too. As a lions fan who has defended Abdullah’s ethic and talent but the ball security issues seem real. Anyone worried about michels ball security being an issue?

Always a worry because that's the quickest route to a coach's doghouse. 

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ignoring the '14, and '15 season because in '14 Michel played 8 games, in '15 Chubb played 6

in 16', and 17' Michel played one less game in each season.

Chubb 224/1130/8 rushing , 5/86/1 rec in 2016, 223/1345/15 rushing, 4/30/0 rec in 2017

Michel 152/840/4 , 22/149/1 rec 2016 , 156/1227/16 rushing, 9/96/1 rec in 2017

Michel's receptions tailed off from 15 and 16 by almost triple. Chubb had 18 as a freshman, but then 4, 5, and 4 again.

So, im still unsure why he is considered the receiving threat he is with such a small sample size. I think the Kamara comp and also the lack of targets for Chubb make it appear that Michel is THAT much better at catching than Chubb, that he must also be good at it, in comparison with people who are actually good at it.

 

Georgia was 106th in the nation in pass yard per game, 172.8 per game. 119th in the country with 20.7 att per game.

67.53% of their total yards this season were rushing yards. They averaged over 44 attempts per game.

I wouldn't put mush stock in people saying Chubb isnt a solid receiver, but I wouldnt put much stock into people saying Michel is, the data just isnt there to support either opinion. It would just be speculation. Michel could absolutely be a great receiving prospect, but their offense didnt really cater to that skill, if its there.

Is it possible both of these guys stats are inflated due to their share of the offense? Or are their numbers more impressive considering competition and the fact that the other team probably figured out what was happening and still couldnt stop it?

 

 

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

Anyone care about ball security? Abdullah can be a game breaker, but can give it away and game break for the other team too. As a lions fan who has defended Abdullah’s ethic and talent but the ball security issues seem real. Anyone worried about michels ball security being an issue?

I don't think Abdullah is very good. He was given plenty of chances.

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29 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

I don't think Abdullah is very good. He was given plenty of chances.

Yeah, a lot of them limited because he fumbles. 2nd rd pick with lots of talent that can’t stay on the field because of fumbles. I see a red flag on Sony that no one wants to really defend.

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45 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Yeah, a lot of them limited because he fumbles. 2nd rd pick with lots of talent that can’t stay on the field because of fumbles. I see a red flag on Sony that no one wants to really defend.

It's not to be defended, it's to be marked as one risk, albeit a major one.

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

Yeah, a lot of them limited because he fumbles. 2nd rd pick with lots of talent that can’t stay on the field because of fumbles. I see a red flag on Sony that no one wants to really defend.

To each their own. For me he’s just not good.

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7 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

To each their own. For me he’s just not good.

Not good?  Really?  I think you're on an island with that statement.

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44 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Not good?  Really?  I think you're on an island with that statement.

Lol, okay. He has done as close to nothing as possible. I think the majority of people would be on that side.

Edited by voiceofunreason
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27 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Lol, okay. He has done as close to nothing as possible. I think the majority of people would be on that side.

What side is that?

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35 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Lol, okay. He has done as close to nothing as possible. I think the majority of people would be on that side.

If you don't like Michel, what are your thoughts on Nick Chubb?

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Yeah, a lot of them limited because he fumbles. 2nd rd pick with lots of talent that can’t stay on the field because of fumbles. I see a red flag on Sony that no one wants to really defend.

I don’t think anyone is going to defend it...I am a big Michel fan but that is a definite concern...if he doesn’t get that part of his game squared away it is going to cause issues...it is like Penny with the pass-blocking...you can ignore it all you want but until they upgrade that part of their respective games there is a little leap of faith for both of them...

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

Not good?  Really?  I think you're on an island with that statement.

I don't like Michel either. Way over hyped for a guy that was a backup in college and blew up at the end when people were actually watching. I watched all 4 years. Chubb is better.

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19 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

If you don't like Michel, what are your thoughts on Nick Chubb?

Sorry, the guy was talking about Abdullah and fumbles ruining his career.

Edited by voiceofunreason
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10 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Sorry, the guy was talking about Abdullah and fumbles ruining his career.

So when the topic shifted back to Michel and you said:

Quote

Lol, okay. He has done as close to nothing as possible

were you talking about Abdullah or Michel? Seemed to me like the latter, and if so, question still stands.

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54 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

So when the topic shifted back to Michel and you said:

were you talking about Abdullah or Michel? Seemed to me like the latter, and if so, question still stands.

It was all Abdullah. Really I think Michel played in a great spot, after Chubb wore teams down. He looks like a 3rd down back to me and he’s pretty old. Don’t hate him but not somebody I’d draft early unless he goes to a great spot. 

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8 hours ago, Pwingles said:

 

I appreciate the response. 

I didn't realize there was a narrative like this, I guess I haven't been paying enough attention. 

I do think it makes it more difficult to evaluate Michel and Chubb because of the time share and that they do not throw to the RB much either, so that gets split in half as well.  

I had similar problem with Perine and Mixon last year. Mixon got schemed into space a lot while Perine did more of the dirty work, but at least they were on the field at the same time for some plays too. I haven't really seen that with Michel and Chubb.

D'Andre Swift had 17 receptions while Chubb and Michel had 13 between them, so they preferred to throw to this guy more.

Michel did have 26 receptions in 2015 (Chubb only played 6 games that year) and 22 receptions in 2016. I watched 2 games from 2016 and one from 2015 with two games from 2017 for Michel. The 2015 game was against Auburn and he did not have a good game, but Chubb was injured and Michel had 26 rushing attempts and 2 receptions in the game, he just didn't play very well. His best game that I have charted was against Kentucky in 2016 he has 19 rushing attempts and 2 receptions in this game. Chubb had 21 rushing attempts as well.

By my charting Michel has a 70 score for the game against Kentucky and Chubb has a 27. Even though they had similar opportunities in the game.

This is part of what is making me question if Chubb should be in the same tier as Michel and these other RB I listed above in tier 2a. Because Michel clearly outplays Chubb in my view for games where they both got the ball a lot.

Similarly last year when watching Perine and Mixon, Mixon looked much faster, more elusive, just pretty much all around better than Perine so I didn't think they were in the same tier of player based on just comparing them side by side in the same offense. I did watch 2014 Perine games though while for Chubb I haven't charted games from 2014. Something I do still plan to do at some point though, just didn't want that to be part of the charting because it is so long ago and things change. Maybe an over reaction to putting too much weight on 2014 Perine games last year? Is Chubb the same player as he was prior to the knee injury though? I dunno. He had an amazing start to his college career.

Edited by Biabreakable

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7 hours ago, Pwingles said:

ignoring the '14, and '15 season because in '14 Michel played 8 games, in '15 Chubb played 6

in 16', and 17' Michel played one less game in each season.

Chubb 224/1130/8 rushing , 5/86/1 rec in 2016, 223/1345/15 rushing, 4/30/0 rec in 2017

Michel 152/840/4 , 22/149/1 rec 2016 , 156/1227/16 rushing, 9/96/1 rec in 2017

Michel's receptions tailed off from 15 and 16 by almost triple. Chubb had 18 as a freshman, but then 4, 5, and 4 again.

So, im still unsure why he is considered the receiving threat he is with such a small sample size. I think the Kamara comp and also the lack of targets for Chubb make it appear that Michel is THAT much better at catching than Chubb, that he must also be good at it, in comparison with people who are actually good at it.

 

Georgia was 106th in the nation in pass yard per game, 172.8 per game. 119th in the country with 20.7 att per game.

67.53% of their total yards this season were rushing yards. They averaged over 44 attempts per game.

I wouldn't put mush stock in people saying Chubb isnt a solid receiver, but I wouldnt put much stock into people saying Michel is, the data just isnt there to support either opinion. It would just be speculation. Michel could absolutely be a great receiving prospect, but their offense didnt really cater to that skill, if its there.

Is it possible both of these guys stats are inflated due to their share of the offense? Or are their numbers more impressive considering competition and the fact that the other team probably figured out what was happening and still couldnt stop it?

 

 

Chubb’s drop rate is 0% and Michael drop rate is 6.7%. Maybe that’s why?

Tex

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11 hours ago, Jello_Biafra said:

I don't like Michel either. Way over hyped for a guy that was a backup in college and blew up at the end when people were actually watching. I watched all 4 years. Chubb is better.

Having to play backup to Chubb wasn't a reflection on Michel.  Chubb was a stud pre-injury and was the ingrained starter when healthy.   Using that he was a backup is not a good example to dislike Michel.

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28 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Having to play backup to Chubb wasn't a reflection on Michel.  Chubb was a stud pre-injury and was the ingrained starter when healthy.   Using that he was a backup is not a good example to dislike Michel.

I find it interesting as well that people dismiss Michel because he was a backup -- and even more interesting that those who think Chubb is a solid back but MIchel is not. In 2017, Michel had about a third less carries than Chubb (223 for Chubb, 156 for Michel), but was only behind Chubb in terms of total yardage by less than 120 yards. 

Fact of the matter is that both backs aren't elite, and would likely be average runners in the NFL. They have similar size and would argue similar abilities (solid runners with decent vision but nothing truly jumps off the tape for either), had similar combine speed results (40 and shuttle), and at the end of the day were great compliments to each other.

They both can find success in tandem back sets, and in this day and age in the NFL, where RBBC is the rule, I think they can be equally successful. 

But I can't see one truly jumping out as being that much better than the other.

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8 hours ago, BigTex said:

Chubb’s drop rate is 0% and Michael drop rate is 6.7%. Maybe that’s why?

Tex

Not sure what you are referring to?

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14 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Not good?  Really?  I think you're on an island with that statement.

he's talking about Abdullah.

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20 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Always a worry because that's the quickest route to a coach's doghouse. 

If I was a football coach, I would name my dog Fumbles.

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Bleacher Report's Matt Miller hears that Georgia RG Sony Michel could be the second running back off the board.

Penn State RB Saquon Barkley is obviously going to be the first tailback to come off barring something impossible to predict. The battle for the second tailback seems to be between Guice, Michel and perhaps Ronald Jones or Rashaad Penny in an upset, but Miller hears that it very well could be the former Georgia star. With home-run speed, solid vision and the ability to contribute in the pass game, we wouldn't be surprised, either.

Source: Matt Miller on Twitter 

Apr 20 - 7:25 PM

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1 minute ago, Soulfly3 said:

^^^ that dude leaving Chubb off his list means his opinion is invalid. 

Chubb's health doesn't seem like an issue now. There's a chance he goes #2.

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Just now, cloppbeast said:

Chubb is more fluid, but not as quick.

Kind of the conclusion I came to as well. Both have very good vision though.

 

This class is almost as deep as last years.

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18 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

^^^ that dude leaving Chubb off his list means his opinion is invalid. 

Why, there is no chance Chubb is the second RB off the board.

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