Faust

Dynasty & Redraft: RB Sony Michel, Patriots

310 posts in this topic

ignoring the '14, and '15 season because in '14 Michel played 8 games, in '15 Chubb played 6

in 16', and 17' Michel played one less game in each season.

Chubb 224/1130/8 rushing , 5/86/1 rec in 2016, 223/1345/15 rushing, 4/30/0 rec in 2017

Michel 152/840/4 , 22/149/1 rec 2016 , 156/1227/16 rushing, 9/96/1 rec in 2017

Michel's receptions tailed off from 15 and 16 by almost triple. Chubb had 18 as a freshman, but then 4, 5, and 4 again.

So, im still unsure why he is considered the receiving threat he is with such a small sample size. I think the Kamara comp and also the lack of targets for Chubb make it appear that Michel is THAT much better at catching than Chubb, that he must also be good at it, in comparison with people who are actually good at it.

 

Georgia was 106th in the nation in pass yard per game, 172.8 per game. 119th in the country with 20.7 att per game.

67.53% of their total yards this season were rushing yards. They averaged over 44 attempts per game.

I wouldn't put mush stock in people saying Chubb isnt a solid receiver, but I wouldnt put much stock into people saying Michel is, the data just isnt there to support either opinion. It would just be speculation. Michel could absolutely be a great receiving prospect, but their offense didnt really cater to that skill, if its there.

Is it possible both of these guys stats are inflated due to their share of the offense? Or are their numbers more impressive considering competition and the fact that the other team probably figured out what was happening and still couldnt stop it?

 

 

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

Anyone care about ball security? Abdullah can be a game breaker, but can give it away and game break for the other team too. As a lions fan who has defended Abdullah’s ethic and talent but the ball security issues seem real. Anyone worried about michels ball security being an issue?

I don't think Abdullah is very good. He was given plenty of chances.

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29 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

I don't think Abdullah is very good. He was given plenty of chances.

Yeah, a lot of them limited because he fumbles. 2nd rd pick with lots of talent that can’t stay on the field because of fumbles. I see a red flag on Sony that no one wants to really defend.

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45 minutes ago, Snorkelson said:

Yeah, a lot of them limited because he fumbles. 2nd rd pick with lots of talent that can’t stay on the field because of fumbles. I see a red flag on Sony that no one wants to really defend.

It's not to be defended, it's to be marked as one risk, albeit a major one.

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1 hour ago, Snorkelson said:

Yeah, a lot of them limited because he fumbles. 2nd rd pick with lots of talent that can’t stay on the field because of fumbles. I see a red flag on Sony that no one wants to really defend.

To each their own. For me he’s just not good.

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7 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

To each their own. For me he’s just not good.

Not good?  Really?  I think you're on an island with that statement.

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Posted (edited)

44 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Not good?  Really?  I think you're on an island with that statement.

Lol, okay. He has done as close to nothing as possible. I think the majority of people would be on that side.

Edited by voiceofunreason
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27 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Lol, okay. He has done as close to nothing as possible. I think the majority of people would be on that side.

What side is that?

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35 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Lol, okay. He has done as close to nothing as possible. I think the majority of people would be on that side.

If you don't like Michel, what are your thoughts on Nick Chubb?

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2 hours ago, Snorkelson said:

Yeah, a lot of them limited because he fumbles. 2nd rd pick with lots of talent that can’t stay on the field because of fumbles. I see a red flag on Sony that no one wants to really defend.

I don’t think anyone is going to defend it...I am a big Michel fan but that is a definite concern...if he doesn’t get that part of his game squared away it is going to cause issues...it is like Penny with the pass-blocking...you can ignore it all you want but until they upgrade that part of their respective games there is a little leap of faith for both of them...

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1 hour ago, JohnnyU said:

Not good?  Really?  I think you're on an island with that statement.

I don't like Michel either. Way over hyped for a guy that was a backup in college and blew up at the end when people were actually watching. I watched all 4 years. Chubb is better.

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Posted (edited)

19 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

If you don't like Michel, what are your thoughts on Nick Chubb?

Sorry, the guy was talking about Abdullah and fumbles ruining his career.

Edited by voiceofunreason
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10 minutes ago, voiceofunreason said:

Sorry, the guy was talking about Abdullah and fumbles ruining his career.

So when the topic shifted back to Michel and you said:

Quote

Lol, okay. He has done as close to nothing as possible

were you talking about Abdullah or Michel? Seemed to me like the latter, and if so, question still stands.

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54 minutes ago, Stompin' Tom Connors said:

So when the topic shifted back to Michel and you said:

were you talking about Abdullah or Michel? Seemed to me like the latter, and if so, question still stands.

It was all Abdullah. Really I think Michel played in a great spot, after Chubb wore teams down. He looks like a 3rd down back to me and he’s pretty old. Don’t hate him but not somebody I’d draft early unless he goes to a great spot. 

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Posted (edited)

8 hours ago, Pwingles said:

 

I appreciate the response. 

I didn't realize there was a narrative like this, I guess I haven't been paying enough attention. 

I do think it makes it more difficult to evaluate Michel and Chubb because of the time share and that they do not throw to the RB much either, so that gets split in half as well.  

I had similar problem with Perine and Mixon last year. Mixon got schemed into space a lot while Perine did more of the dirty work, but at least they were on the field at the same time for some plays too. I haven't really seen that with Michel and Chubb.

D'Andre Swift had 17 receptions while Chubb and Michel had 13 between them, so they preferred to throw to this guy more.

Michel did have 26 receptions in 2015 (Chubb only played 6 games that year) and 22 receptions in 2016. I watched 2 games from 2016 and one from 2015 with two games from 2017 for Michel. The 2015 game was against Auburn and he did not have a good game, but Chubb was injured and Michel had 26 rushing attempts and 2 receptions in the game, he just didn't play very well. His best game that I have charted was against Kentucky in 2016 he has 19 rushing attempts and 2 receptions in this game. Chubb had 21 rushing attempts as well.

By my charting Michel has a 70 score for the game against Kentucky and Chubb has a 27. Even though they had similar opportunities in the game.

This is part of what is making me question if Chubb should be in the same tier as Michel and these other RB I listed above in tier 2a. Because Michel clearly outplays Chubb in my view for games where they both got the ball a lot.

Similarly last year when watching Perine and Mixon, Mixon looked much faster, more elusive, just pretty much all around better than Perine so I didn't think they were in the same tier of player based on just comparing them side by side in the same offense. I did watch 2014 Perine games though while for Chubb I haven't charted games from 2014. Something I do still plan to do at some point though, just didn't want that to be part of the charting because it is so long ago and things change. Maybe an over reaction to putting too much weight on 2014 Perine games last year? Is Chubb the same player as he was prior to the knee injury though? I dunno. He had an amazing start to his college career.

Edited by Biabreakable

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7 hours ago, Pwingles said:

ignoring the '14, and '15 season because in '14 Michel played 8 games, in '15 Chubb played 6

in 16', and 17' Michel played one less game in each season.

Chubb 224/1130/8 rushing , 5/86/1 rec in 2016, 223/1345/15 rushing, 4/30/0 rec in 2017

Michel 152/840/4 , 22/149/1 rec 2016 , 156/1227/16 rushing, 9/96/1 rec in 2017

Michel's receptions tailed off from 15 and 16 by almost triple. Chubb had 18 as a freshman, but then 4, 5, and 4 again.

So, im still unsure why he is considered the receiving threat he is with such a small sample size. I think the Kamara comp and also the lack of targets for Chubb make it appear that Michel is THAT much better at catching than Chubb, that he must also be good at it, in comparison with people who are actually good at it.

 

Georgia was 106th in the nation in pass yard per game, 172.8 per game. 119th in the country with 20.7 att per game.

67.53% of their total yards this season were rushing yards. They averaged over 44 attempts per game.

I wouldn't put mush stock in people saying Chubb isnt a solid receiver, but I wouldnt put much stock into people saying Michel is, the data just isnt there to support either opinion. It would just be speculation. Michel could absolutely be a great receiving prospect, but their offense didnt really cater to that skill, if its there.

Is it possible both of these guys stats are inflated due to their share of the offense? Or are their numbers more impressive considering competition and the fact that the other team probably figured out what was happening and still couldnt stop it?

 

 

Chubb’s drop rate is 0% and Michael drop rate is 6.7%. Maybe that’s why?

Tex

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11 hours ago, Jello_Biafra said:

I don't like Michel either. Way over hyped for a guy that was a backup in college and blew up at the end when people were actually watching. I watched all 4 years. Chubb is better.

Having to play backup to Chubb wasn't a reflection on Michel.  Chubb was a stud pre-injury and was the ingrained starter when healthy.   Using that he was a backup is not a good example to dislike Michel.

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28 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

Having to play backup to Chubb wasn't a reflection on Michel.  Chubb was a stud pre-injury and was the ingrained starter when healthy.   Using that he was a backup is not a good example to dislike Michel.

I find it interesting as well that people dismiss Michel because he was a backup -- and even more interesting that those who think Chubb is a solid back but MIchel is not. In 2017, Michel had about a third less carries than Chubb (223 for Chubb, 156 for Michel), but was only behind Chubb in terms of total yardage by less than 120 yards. 

Fact of the matter is that both backs aren't elite, and would likely be average runners in the NFL. They have similar size and would argue similar abilities (solid runners with decent vision but nothing truly jumps off the tape for either), had similar combine speed results (40 and shuttle), and at the end of the day were great compliments to each other.

They both can find success in tandem back sets, and in this day and age in the NFL, where RBBC is the rule, I think they can be equally successful. 

But I can't see one truly jumping out as being that much better than the other.

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8 hours ago, BigTex said:

Chubb’s drop rate is 0% and Michael drop rate is 6.7%. Maybe that’s why?

Tex

Not sure what you are referring to?

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14 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Not good?  Really?  I think you're on an island with that statement.

he's talking about Abdullah.

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20 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Always a worry because that's the quickest route to a coach's doghouse. 

If I was a football coach, I would name my dog Fumbles.

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Bleacher Report's Matt Miller hears that Georgia RG Sony Michel could be the second running back off the board.

Penn State RB Saquon Barkley is obviously going to be the first tailback to come off barring something impossible to predict. The battle for the second tailback seems to be between Guice, Michel and perhaps Ronald Jones or Rashaad Penny in an upset, but Miller hears that it very well could be the former Georgia star. With home-run speed, solid vision and the ability to contribute in the pass game, we wouldn't be surprised, either.

Source: Matt Miller on Twitter 

Apr 20 - 7:25 PM

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^^^ that dude leaving Chubb off his list means his opinion is invalid. 

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1 minute ago, Soulfly3 said:

^^^ that dude leaving Chubb off his list means his opinion is invalid. 

Chubb's health doesn't seem like an issue now. There's a chance he goes #2.

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Imagine looking to be respected in sports journalism, and leaving Chubb off that list?

Sacrilege. 

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Michel's hips seem a bit tight to me. Anyone else?

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17 hours ago, pbandy1 said:

Michel's hips seem a bit tight to me. Anyone else?

Chubb is more fluid, but not as quick.

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Just now, cloppbeast said:

Chubb is more fluid, but not as quick.

Kind of the conclusion I came to as well. Both have very good vision though.

 

This class is almost as deep as last years.

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18 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

^^^ that dude leaving Chubb off his list means his opinion is invalid. 

Why, there is no chance Chubb is the second RB off the board.

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58 minutes ago, petekrum said:

Why, there is no chance Chubb is the second RB off the board.

Id be floored if Jones and Penny are drafted before Chubb. 

Also, as an aside, I 100% think Chubb could be the no2 back off the board, even tho he isnt my #2 rated RB

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1 hour ago, Soulfly3 said:

Id be floored if Jones and Penny are drafted before Chubb. 

Also, as an aside, I 100% think Chubb could be the no2 back off the board, even tho he isnt my #2 rated RB

absolutely. Jones at his size will likely scare some teams away. Guice could fall with some of the stories coming out (don't think he does, however). Chubb/Michel is basically a toss-up in my opinion - when I watch the tape, Chubb stands out to me more.

For what its worth, Waldman is a big fan of Nick Chubb.

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4 minutes ago, pbandy1 said:

absolutely. Jones at his size will likely scare some teams away. Guice could fall with some of the stories coming out (don't think he does, however). Chubb/Michel is basically a toss-up in my opinion - when I watch the tape, Chubb stands out to me more.

For what its worth, Waldman is a big fan of Nick Chubb.

Stories coming out? When? If it’s in the last 2 weeks I call smokescreen. 

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NFL Media's Lance Zierlein compares Georgia RB Sony Michel to former NFL RB Knowshon Moreno.

Moreno was also a former Bulldog, which makes the comparison a little easier to see. Zierlein notes that Michel has "good burst in his cuts," and that he understands the finer points of setting up blocks with lead blockers and pullers. Zierlein does have some concerns about Michel's agility, and that his open field balance is inconsistent. He's battling with several others to be the second running back off the board in 2018, and Zierlein gives him a second-round grade.

Source: NFL.com 

Apr 21 - 7:27 PM

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18 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

Id be floored if Jones and Penny are drafted before Chubb. 

Also, as an aside, I 100% think Chubb could be the no2 back off the board, even tho he isnt my #2 rated RB

At best he comes off 5th in my opinion. 

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20 hours ago, Soulfly3 said:

Id be floored if Jones and Penny are drafted before Chubb. 

Also, as an aside, I 100% think Chubb could be the no2 back off the board, even tho he isnt my #2 rated RB

It wouldn’t shock me at all but I guess it would depend on what type of runner the team needs. NFL wise, these three guys are clumped together.

Tex

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16 hours ago, Faust said:

 

 

aside from the Georgia reference, it seems like an odd comp imo. Moreno played with more physicality and lacked the top gear and burst on the field that seemingly separates Michel from his peers. i know their 40 times are similar, but it doesn't show up in the tape imo

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Buffaloes said:

aside from the Georgia reference, it seems like an odd comp imo. Moreno played with more physicality and lacked the top gear and burst on the field that seemingly separates Michel from his peers. i know their 40 times are similar, but it doesn't show up in the tape imo

 

 

agree

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I’ll be amazed if Barkley, Guice, and Michel aren’t the first three RBs off the board.

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