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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Sony Michel, Patriots

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54 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Every player goes through swings. Some more dramatic than others, as some are more game-flow dependent. 

The problem isn’t Sony’s swings, it’s owners expectations of his somewhat unpredictable production. 

but since he averages 17.5 carries a game (was higher before last night’s debacle) you trust that he’ll likely be better in 2 weeks when the Pats get off the BYE. 

the weather is gonna be a factor down the stretch, and they seem far more willing to run in the red zone this year. In a normal game against defenses that aren’t the Ravens in prime time playing like their heads are on fire, when Pats aren’t playing from behind all game, Sony should have much better numbers.

So if you’re expecting him to be Marshall Faulk, you’re gonna be disappointed. If you’re expecting him to be a boom or bust RB2/Flex guy, you take what you get and you’re happy if he does well.’

the fact is he’s not hurt, he is on a good team, and he should be productive moving forward. 

if folks are going to panic every time a player has a bad game; this probably isn’t the best hobby for them. The big picture matters. 

Keep playing him if you want to hope he gets the ball for those one yarders.  Last night, he wasn't even in the game when they were near the goal line. 

No one expected him to be Marshall Faulk. We were just hoping he wasn't Leroy Hoard and we had to pray for a goal line carry. 

As got the 'big picture', he looks terrible with the eye ball test. On half of his carries, he stops before getting to the line of scrimmage then falls forward.  He also never breaks a tackle. I'm sure Belichick sees this too and is probably why he had five touches last night.

Edited by JuniorNB
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10 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

Michel has played 25 games for NE and had double digit carries in 22 of them and 15 or more in 18 of them.
Burkhead has played 29 games for NE and had double digit carries in 7 of them and 15 or more in one of them (a game where Michel was out).

The games Michel doesn't get the ball are when the Pats go pass crazy or get way behind. How often is NE going to get behind 17-0?

Exactly this. 

26 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

They've played 5 games together this year.

sample size isn’t exactly massive there. and. Burkhead doesn’t have a great history of staying healthy. 

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11 minutes ago, JuniorNB said:

Keep playing him if you want to hope he gets the ball for those one yarders.  Last night, he wasn't even in the game when they were near the goal line. 

No one expected him to be Marshall Faulk. We were just hoping he wasn't Leroy Hoard and we had to pray for a goal line carry. 

Michel is ranked RB18 in 0 PPR leagues and RB26 in PPR leagues. People that took him PPR leagues after having a season with only 7 receptions could not have expected the universe, no matter where they drafted him. In MFL 0 ppr leagues, Michel had an ADP of RB21. Sure, he hasn't been great and hasn't looked great, but there are other players people should be griping over besides Michel.

Edited by Anarchy99
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7 minutes ago, JuniorNB said:

Keep playing him if you want to hope he gets the ball for those one yarders.  Last night, he wasn't even in the game when they were near the goal line. 
 

Not saying you’re not entitled to your opinion, but a 1-game sample size isn’t a convincing argument to me. 

Quote

No one expected him to be Marshall Faulk. We were just hoping he wasn't Leroy Hoard and we had to pray for a goal line carry. 

he’s averaged 17.5 carries a game this year. You’re basing all of this on one bad game. That’s an overreaction to a single outlier.

Quote

As got the 'big picture', he looks terrible with the eye ball test. On half of his carries, he stops before getting to the line of scrimmage then falls forward.  He also never breaks a tackle. I'm sure Belichick sees this too and is probably why he had five touches last night.

No, he had 5 touches last night because the Pats went no-huddle for the majority of the game & even on the long drive that ended with the Edelman fumble, they went 100% pass. Michele was on the field the entire drive, made 2 fantastic blocks & executes a perfect flea flicker. Just because it didn’t show up in the box score doesn’t mean he wasn’t used by the Pats. 

basing your entire conclusion off of 1 game sample is not “big picture”. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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4 hours ago, rockaction said:

Never could sell this guy for exactly this reason. Never draft again. Can't lose weeks because of his variance. 

Isnt this the definition of the NE backfield?

 

I bit several years ago 2 years in a row and swore off that backfield forever (similar to Denver in the post- T. Davis age). 

His playoff schedule is so interesting... but the variance is crazy. Do you really want to risk your playoffs on that variance? Come playoff time suddenly Harris gets all the carries for no reason at all? 

 

The temptation is there for me to send AJ Brown for him, but I could see that backfiring in a major way. For now I'm looking elsewhere for RB help. Or I can hope Finley revives the CIN offense and stick with Mixon (or Guice) and their favorable playofff schedules! 

Edited by Dr. Dan

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3 minutes ago, Dr. Dan said:

Isnt this the definition of the NE backfield?

 

I bit several years ago 2 years in a row and swore off that backfield forever (similar to Denver in the post- T. Davis age). 

His playoff schedule is so interesting... but the variance is crazy. Do you really want to risk your playoffs on that variance? Come playoff time suddenly Harris gets all the carries for no reason at all? 

 

The temptation is there for me to send AJ Brown for him, but I could see that backfiring in a major way. For now I'm looking elsewhere for RB help. Or I can hope Finley revives the CIN offense and stick with Mixon (or Guice) and their favorable playofff schedules! 

I have never figured out why people get agita over the NE backfield. It hardly ever is a mystery. One guy is an early down ball carrier. One guy is a third down COP receiver. And one guy gets a series once or twice a game. Once in a while they go pass happy and once in a while they have to go off game script. But people should already know all this. 

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5 minutes ago, Anarchy99 said:

I have never figured out why people get agita over the NE backfield. It hardly ever is a mystery. One guy is an early down ball carrier. One guy is a third down COP receiver. And one guy gets a series once or twice a game. Once in a while they go pass happy and once in a while they have to go off game script. But people should already know all this. 

It's not that one doesn't know, it's that one has to set the lineups beforehand; therefore, if the script gets flipped, your week gets ripped to shreds. Sony was averaging nineteen carries or touches a game the last five games. This one was difficult to predict in all senses because you didn't know if Baltimore would be any different than NE's past opponent.

It's not agita. Most projections had Sony as at least FLEX if not RB2 this week based on his workload and touchdowns. They were completely wrong, and they weren't wrong because of any misjudging of talent endemic to team or oppositional response. It was pure gameflow and usage. It's of a different variety than another team selling out to stop the run or rolling coverage than because of gameplanning. At least talent has a chance in that case. He wasn't even on the field.

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11 minutes ago, rockaction said:

It's not that one doesn't know, it's that one has to set the lineups beforehand; therefore, if the script gets flipped, your week gets ripped to shreds. Sony was averaging nineteen carries or touches a game the last five games. This one was difficult to predict in all senses because you didn't know if Baltimore would be any different than NE's past opponent.

It's not agita. Most projections had Sony as at least FLEX if not RB2 this week based on his workload and touchdowns. They were completely wrong, and they weren't wrong because of any misjudging of talent endemic to team or oppositional response. It was pure gameflow and usage. It's of a different variety than another team selling out to stop the run or rolling coverage than because of gameplanning. At least talent has a chance in that case. He wasn't even on the field.

I also think Bill and Brady are fickle.  When Sony ran what appeared to be the wrong route, Brady was visibly annoyed.  I said to myself, "that's the last time I'm going to see his number called tonight".  And it effectively was.  You can't project that kind of ####, but it seems to happen often.  

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2 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Michel is ranked RB18 in 0 PPR leagues and RB26 in PPR leagues. People that took him PPR leagues after having a season with only 7 receptions could not have expected the universe, no matter where they drafted him. In MFL 0 ppr leagues, Michel had an ADP of RB21. Sure, he hasn't been great and hasn't looked great, but there are other players people should be griping over besides Michel.

He had a three touchdown game (congrats if you survived the 7 point games prior and even had him in your lineup for that one).   He was fortunate enough to get the ball three times by the goal line in a game that he averaged 2.2 yards per carry.  Of course that's going to skew the numbers and make him RB18. He's more like RB35 without that outlier game.

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I don't see why anyone would draft a Pats RB and expect anything more reliably consistent than Flex-level production.

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3 hours ago, Anarchy99 said:

Michel has played 25 games for NE and had double digit carries in 22 of them and 15 or more in 18 of them.
Burkhead has played 29 games for NE and had double digit carries in 7 of them and 15 or more in one of them (a game where Michel was out).

The games Michel doesn't get the ball are when the Pats go pass crazy or get way behind. How often is NE going to get behind 17-0?

Burkhead doesn't have to get 15+ carries to impact Michel.  Michel's value is so tenuous and tied to touches that even a small impact on touches really hurts him.

Besides that, what happened a year ago may as well be a decade ago in fantasy football, especially when we factor Sony's knee into things.  Obviously we could post stats about Todd Gurley's workload in his time with the Rams, but it wouldn't have much impact on a discussion of what his workload is right now with the Rams.

So Sony has only had single digit carries 3 times in 25 games with NE.  Surely it is worth noting that 2 of those 3 times were this year and occurred within his last 3 games played with Burkhead.

Sony has averaged 6.8 fantasy PPG this year in games where Burkhead has played, which is RB49 in those games.

Sony was already susceptible to complete duds on weeks where NE decided to go pass happy or where the game script was not ideal.  Now he is equally susceptible to putting up a dud even when the game script is perfect and NE wants to run the ball, as he did in week 3 even in a blowout win against the Jets where Burkhead still outtouched him 2-1.

I'm sure he will still have his games where he gets a ton of touches and scores a few TDs, but the percentage of those games is even lower now, and as someone above mentioned most of his owners will probably have him on their bench when those games happen, only to chase those points into a total dud the following week.

Edited by FreeBaGeL

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Stick a fork in him.... NE O-Line looks nothing like last years when it came to run blocking.. hes not creative to make his own yards without huge holes being open for him

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Quote

Sony Michel totaled 33 yards on 10 carries while absorbing two catches for 11 yards on four targets Sunday in the Patriots’ Week 11 win over the Eagles.

It wasn't a banner afternoon for Michel nor were we expecting it to be. The Eagles have been among the toughest teams to run on this year (they entered Sunday averaging the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game) and that held true once again as Philadelphia's potent front stymied the second-year back at every turn. A one-dimensional plodder who rarely factors in the passing game, Michel has now gone three games without a touchdown. He'll look to get back on track when the Cowboys visit in Week 12.

Nov 17, 2019, 8:10 PM ET

 

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I was actually able to trade him away in both my leagues this year! People always willing to gamble on RBs!

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After today, Michel has had games with 14, 11, 34, 30, and 44 YFS.  Three more "just ok" days of 83, 63 and 74 yards.  Over 100 yards twice.

Curious what tune "it's just one game" guy is whistling now.

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On 11/4/2019 at 1:28 PM, FreeBaGeL said:

Burkhead doesn't have to get 15+ carries to impact Michel.  Michel's value is so tenuous and tied to touches that even a small impact on touches really hurts him.

Besides that, what happened a year ago may as well be a decade ago in fantasy football, especially when we factor Sony's knee into things.  Obviously we could post stats about Todd Gurley's workload in his time with the Rams, but it wouldn't have much impact on a discussion of what his workload is right now with the Rams.

So Sony has only had single digit carries 3 times in 25 games with NE.  Surely it is worth noting that 2 of those 3 times were this year and occurred within his last 3 games played with Burkhead.

Sony has averaged 6.8 fantasy PPG this year in games where Burkhead has played, which is RB49 in those games.

Sony was already susceptible to complete duds on weeks where NE decided to go pass happy or where the game script was not ideal.  Now he is equally susceptible to putting up a dud even when the game script is perfect and NE wants to run the ball, as he did in week 3 even in a blowout win against the Jets where Burkhead still outtouched him 2-1.

I'm sure he will still have his games where he gets a ton of touches and scores a few TDs, but the percentage of those games is even lower now, and as someone above mentioned most of his owners will probably have him on their bench when those games happen, only to chase those points into a total dud the following week.

Now down to 6.4 fantasy PPG in games where Burkhead plays.

He'll likely have another big game this year, but most won't have him in their lineups anymore when it happens.

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I don't know why Harris keeps being inactive - definitely not a good look.  But I think his day has got to be coming before the season is out

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Only 2 of his games were over 15 fantasy points this season. 

It seems the outlier isnt 1 bad game, rather 2 good games. 

He is currently rb32 in the realm of backup rb Jamal Williams, Ronald Jones, Royce Freeman, Duke Johnson

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Sony Michel rushed 20 times for 85 yards in the Patriots' Week 12 win over the Cowboys.

Michel was rolling early, actually breaking tackles and doing more than just falling forward after picking up whatever was blocked for him. Still, the Patriots didn’t consistently commit to #Establish It, and Michel continued to lose plenty of snaps to James White and Rex Burkhead alike. Michel has multi-touchdown upside whenever the Patriots find themselves as massive home favorites, but he’s otherwise turned into a boom-or-bust RB3 in this bottom-10 offense in yards per play. He’s a risky play in Week 13 against the Texans.

 

Edited by The Frankman
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Sony Michel rushed 10 times for 45 yards in Week 13 against the Texans.

Michel got off to a fast start but faded with the Patriots playing behind in the second half. His 4.5 YPC was good to see after averaging under 4.0 YPC through the first 12 games. Michel has been highly inconsistent this year and hasn’t scored since his three touchdown blowup in Week 7. He’ll be a gameflow-dependent RB2 for a potential shootout with the Chiefs in Week 14.

 

Edited by The Frankman

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10 hours ago, RushHour said:

Gotta wonder why they bothered drafting him with a first round pick

It may have been a luxury pick at the time. Considering he was a big part of their Super Bowl run last year, I doubt the team sees it as a wasted pick.

A year later, it may be very well the case that he hasn't been the well-rounded RB they expected, much like the 1st round pick they used on Laurence Maroney several years back. 

Edited by zamboni

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1 hour ago, zamboni said:

It may have been a luxury pick at the time. Considering he was a big part of their Super Bowl run last year, I doubt the team sees it as a wasted pick.

A year later, it may be very well the case that he hasn't been the well-rounded RB they expected, much like the 1st round pick they used on Laurence Maroney several years back. 

Yeah, maybe things would be different if he hadn't crashed and burned so bad in the passing game.

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11 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

Yeah, maybe things would be different if he hadn't crashed and burned so bad in the passing game.

It looked like he was ready to take that "next step" at the end of last year, but in my brief exposure to him this season he's had some ugly drops.

He's had 9 receptions in 12 games.  In this offense.  Nobody thought he was going to be James White, but I don't think anyone saw those numbers coming.

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Victim of game scripts....the Pats are struggling on offense....if they were getting up by comfortable margins like they used to, Sony would be getting much more love.

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1 hour ago, Manster said:

Victim of game scripts....the Pats are struggling on offense....if they were getting up by comfortable margins like they used to, Sony would be getting much more love.

Agreed, but that tendency graphic they threw up on the screen last night regarding percent passing when White's in the game vs Michel has to bother BB. Nobody wants to be any kind of predictable from a personnel standpoint.

Right now the Patriots are looking about as easy to defend as I can remember... double Edelman, spy White, and patiently sack the Brady. That Bills game could be very interesting. Hard to see their offense clicking to the point where Michel plays a huge role like he did in 2018.

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14 hours ago, The Frankman said:

 

I hate how arbitrarily they assign values to players.  Seemingly half the rbs out there are workload dependent rb2s.

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17 hours ago, wgoldsph said:

I hate how arbitrarily they assign values to players.  Seemingly half the rbs out there are workload dependent rb2s.

And most guys, even if they're clear WR1s, are boom-or-bust WR3s. 

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23 hours ago, Manster said:

Victim of game scripts....the Pats are struggling on offense....if they were getting up by comfortable margins like they used to, Sony would be getting much more love.

Harris is going to get his shot to be the guy in 2020. 

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3 minutes ago, FGITLOTR said:

Harris is going to get his shot to be the guy in 2020. 

I think so, too. It’s hardly all on Sony, but have to think that Belichick will want to shake up the offense with Brady yet another year older.

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2 hours ago, FGITLOTR said:

Harris is going to get his shot to be the guy in 2020. 

 

2 hours ago, zamboni said:

I think so, too. It’s hardly all on Sony, but have to think that Belichick will want to shake up the offense with Brady yet another year older.

There's always the chance the pats draft a rb in the first three rounds.  Lots of good ones coming out and nobody knows how to pick up more picks like BB.

I'd love Harris to be the guy though as I got him in the 2nd this offseason.

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Anyone actually have the cajones to start him this week?  KC gives up the second most points to RB's in the league.  He's been pretty ineffective since week 7.  This just feels like one of those weeks that he blows up with 3 TDs on everyone's bench.  

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4 hours ago, unckeyherb said:

This just feels like one of those weeks that he blows up with 3 TDs on everyone's bench.  

Dont do it, I fell into that trap last week, cost me a playoff spot.  Never again.  

James White would be a good play, IMO

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4 hours ago, unckeyherb said:

Anyone actually have the cajones to start him this week?  KC gives up the second most points to RB's in the league.  He's been pretty ineffective since week 7.  This just feels like one of those weeks that he blows up with 3 TDs on everyone's bench.  

He's probably bound to have one of those games at some point, but we've been waiting all year for it and can't imagine risking it one more week in the playoffs. As above, I would prefer James White because his touches can be more predictable.

Edited by zamboni

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6 hours ago, unckeyherb said:

Anyone actually have the cajones to start him this week?  KC gives up the second most points to RB's in the league.  He's been pretty ineffective since week 7.  This just feels like one of those weeks that he blows up with 3 TDs on everyone's bench.  

I'm starting him because I have no other choice (David Johnson, Burkhead, and T.Mongomery are the only others I have left).

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Feels like he's gonna get fed, but the damn pats are so hard to predict.....between him and Matttison for me.  Leaning Mattison, but I'm coming around on Michel with this matchup

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4 minutes ago, zed2283 said:

Absolutely f'n worthless.

Still have in a few leagues.  I’ve been selling him this year and I don’t plan on owning him at all before next season starts.  I hate the way the Patriots use their RBs.

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Quote

Sony Michel cashed in his chips with eight yards on five carries to go with one catch for one yard on one target Sunday in New England’s Week 14 loss to the Chiefs.

The one-dimensional Michel has turned into something of a weekly punch line here at Rotoworld and Sunday's clunker against Kansas City, who he dominated in last year's playoffs, did little to change the narrative. With New England playing from behind most of the afternoon, Michel spent much of Week 14 as a spectator while receiving back James White drove the ship, just as he did under similar circumstances a week ago in Houston. The 2018 first-rounder has managed to stay healthy, something he couldn't do last year, though his early-season relevance has largely faded as the goal-line touchdowns he was consuming for breakfast, lunch and dinner have suddenly disappeared from his diet. As ugly as it's been for Michel recently, the slumping sophomore should have a good chance of finding the end zone, a patch of gridiron real estate he hasn't visited since Week 7, next week when the Pats roll into Cincinnati.

Dec 8, 2019, 8:12 PM ET

 

 

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Man how bad must Damien Harris look in practice...

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42 minutes ago, RBM said:

Man how bad must Damien Harris look in practice...

Exactly what I’m thinking. Give the kid a shot 

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He's basically smaller Patriots LeGarrette Blount.

Edited by The Frankman

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