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Dynasty & Redraft: RB Sony Michel, Patriots

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Looks horrendous. A situation to 100% avoid. Was probably at his sell high point prior to the regular season 

 

I wonder if hot sauce guy has changed his tune on michel

Edited by Dr. Dan

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11 hours ago, RBM said:

Man how bad must Damien Harris look in practice...

Maybe or perhaps it’s just Bill’s reluctance to play rookies much. Michel himself only started getting playing time last year when he was the last man standing.

Edited by zamboni

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Possibly no running back is as matchup dependent as Michel.  And this week is a great matchup.  The Patriots always ground and pound against inferior competition.  And they want Michel to get his confidence back.  A rushing heavy attack will allow Tom Brady to heal, too.  I think Sony gets a minimum of 20 carries and a touchdown.  Could be a 150 yard, 3 touchdown bonanza.

Edited by Don Hutson

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11 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Possibly no running back is as matchup dependent as Michel.  And this week is a great matchup.  The Patriots always ground and pound against inferior competition.  And they want Michel to get his confidence back.  A rushing heavy attack will allow Tom Brady to heal, too.  I think Sony gets a minimum of 20 carries and a touchdown.  Could be a 150 yard, 3 touchdown bonanza.

I wish I hadn't invested in him as much as I did.  I've sold him for a pretty good return in a couple of leagues and look to dump him in the off-season, even for a 2nd rd rookie pick if I can't do any better.  Taking a loss be damned.  At least this draft is deep.

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7 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Possibly no running back is as matchup dependent as Michel.  And this week is a great matchup.  The Patriots always ground and pound against inferior competition.  And they want Michel to get his confidence back.  A rushing heavy attack will allow Tom Brady to heal, too.  I think Sony gets a minimum of 20 carries and a touchdown.  Could be a 150 yard, 3 touchdown bonanza.

Last week was against the second worst run defense in the league and an offense that can kill you.  Michel ate a bag of #####.  He is unstartable.

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6 minutes ago, unckeyherb said:

Last week was against the second worst run defense in the league and an offense that can kill you.  Michel ate a bag of #####.  He is unstartable.

I'm starting to get to the point where I think it's a bad idea starting any RB consistently from certain teams, under their current coaches.   Obviously that can change in the future.

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5 minutes ago, JohnnyU said:

I'm starting to get to the point where I think it's a bad idea starting any RB consistently from certain teams, under their current coaches.   Obviously that can change in the future.

100% agree

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24 minutes ago, unckeyherb said:

Last week was against the second worst run defense in the league and an offense that can kill you.  Michel ate a bag of #####.  He is unstartable.

Chiefs ≠ Bengals.  Michel is game script dependent.  He will get heavy use in games the Patriots are leading.  There was no reason to believe the Patriots would be leading the Chiefs.  And they didn't.  There is every reason to believe the Patriots will be leading the Bengals.  By a lot.  Sony has 6 rushing touchdowns this season which have come against the Jets, Redskins, and Dolphins.  Bengals fit the bill.

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Just now, Don Hutson said:

Chiefs ≠ Bengals.  Michel is game script dependent.  He will get heavy use in games the Patriots are leading.  There was no reason to believe the Patriots would be leading the Chiefs.  And they didn't.  There is every reason to believe the Patriots will be leading the Bengals.  By a lot.  Sony has 6 rushing touchdowns this season which have come against the Jets, Redskins, and Dolphins.  Bengals fit the bill.

Fair Point.  In week 2 of the FF Playoffs, I don't have the minerals.  But good luck to those of you that do.

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36 minutes ago, Don Hutson said:

Chiefs ≠ Bengals.  Michel is game script dependent.  He will get heavy use in games the Patriots are leading.  There was no reason to believe the Patriots would be leading the Chiefs.  And they didn't.  There is every reason to believe the Patriots will be leading the Bengals.  By a lot.  Sony has 6 rushing touchdowns this season which have come against the Jets, Redskins, and Dolphins.  Bengals fit the bill.

IIRC, in that game against the Dolphins, he wasn’t a huge of a factor as he should have been in a 43-0 blowout. Game scripts on paper unfortunately don’t always work as expected. It’s not like the Pats have a high powered offense to blow teams out like they used to.

Edited by zamboni

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1 hour ago, Don Hutson said:

Chiefs ≠ Bengals.  Michel is game script dependent.  He will get heavy use in games the Patriots are leading.  There was no reason to believe the Patriots would be leading the Chiefs.  And they didn't.  There is every reason to believe the Patriots will be leading the Bengals.  By a lot.  Sony has 6 rushing touchdowns this season which have come against the Jets, Redskins, and Dolphins.  Bengals fit the bill.

Seems like a good analysis on paper, but I just flat out do not trust the Pats offense AT ALL.

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2 hours ago, Manster said:

Seems like a good analysis on paper, but I just flat out do not trust the Pats offense AT ALL.

Why did the Patriots waste a 1st rd pick on Michel if White is on the field during passing downs?  You would think they could draft someone opposite of White in the later rounds.

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My only alternatives are David Johnson and Burkhead.  What to do...?

ETA: Starting Drake as my RB1...

Edited by zed2283

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Quote

Sony Michel rushed 19 times for 89 yards in the Patriots' Week 15 win over the Bengals, adding a 14-yard reception.

In an indictment of just how underwhelming Michel's 2019 has been, the 89 yards on the ground were his second most of the season. He's still yet to have a 100-yard day. He should have had more this afternoon against a defense that has permitted, by far, the league's most rushing yardage. Michel actually should have had a touchdown, through the air no less, but Tom Brady threw a turf missile at this feet. Michel will remain better utilized as a standard league FLEX than RB2 for Week 16 against the Bills.

Dec 15, 2019, 5:54 PM ET

 

 

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WTF!!!!!!! Michel is in for goal line.  They run the play and he scores, but the Bills had called a timeout.  After the timeout, Burkhead is in and scores. :rant:

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On 11/4/2019 at 12:11 AM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

I’m reasonably sure Sony Michele is going to get plenty of carries after the BYE. Everyone can come down off the ledge. Sheesh. 

 

On 11/4/2019 at 11:35 AM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

 

he’s averaged 17.5 carries a game this year. You’re basing all of this on one bad game. That’s an overreaction to a single outlier.

 

after being a peach to @shadyridrearlier in this thread, I'm curious if you have an update?

Edited by Johnny B. Goode

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1 hour ago, Johnny B. Goode said:

 

after being a peach to shady earlier in this thread, I'm curious if you have an update?

Yes, the patriots refused to commit to them. He had a really nice last game after it was way too late for it to matter. Also Rex Burkhead is way too involved.

I landed him as a toss in on a trade where I gave up Alvin Kamara for Mike Evans and the dude kicked in Sony Michele as a bonus to sweeten the pot for me. I actually ended up winning that trade since Kamara was terrible until week 16 and Mike Evans help me finish strong until he got hurt. Obviously since that’s a dynasty league I’m hoping for good things for Michelle, but as my fourth running back if he doesn’t work out, so be it.

In the context of when I made those statements, they appeared to be true, so if you’re asking me to eat crow over them, you’re going to have an awful long wait. We make the best guesses with the information we have at hand at the time.

as for being a “peach“, I’m not exactly sure what that means. I was pretty civi/politel in both of my responses if you’re implying otherwise.

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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Quote

Sony Michel (questionable, illness) is expected to play Week 17 against the Dolphins.

Michel was downgraded to questionable after coming down with an illness late in the week, though the plan is for him to play Sunday against Miami. The 2018 first-rounder has been a massive flop this year, averaging a lackluster 3.7 yards per carry on the ground while seeing little involvement in the Patriots' passing game (12-94-0 receiving line on 20 targets). He hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 7.

SOURCE: Adam Schefter on Twitter

Dec 29, 2019, 9:31 AM ET

 

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What a wash of a season.  I thought he'd have 1100-1200 Rushing yards and 14 TD's.  Just a friendly reminder to never trust the Pats backfield.  Outside of James White, of course. 

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Will his knees every be right? This is not the same guy I saw in college. It has to be his knees

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6 minutes ago, Gandalf said:

Will his knees every be right? This is not the same guy I saw in college. It has to be his knees

No he's not the same looking guy to me either and I'm so glad I sold him in the two leagues I drafted him last year after his big postseason run.

When he was drafted Mike Lombardi, who of course has contacts in NE, said that NE knew he had a bone on bone issue and knew they'd likely never give him a second contract. Really highlights how much they must have valued his college tape but that to me is the answer to your question if he will ever be right. I would say bone on bone issues don't improve over time so no.

Shame to because he actually looks like a 8-10 year vet at RB and I mean that as a compliment but just no explosion.

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14 hours ago, menobrown said:

No he's not the same looking guy to me either and I'm so glad I sold him in the two leagues I drafted him last year after his big postseason run.

When he was drafted Mike Lombardi, who of course has contacts in NE, said that NE knew he had a bone on bone issue and knew they'd likely never give him a second contract. Really highlights how much they must have valued his college tape but that to me is the answer to your question if he will ever be right. I would say bone on bone issues don't improve over time so no.

Shame to because he actually looks like a 8-10 year vet at RB and I mean that as a compliment but just no explosion.

He looked fantastic in the preseason, and any time they decided to feature him he looked pretty good. He wasn’t bad in the playoffs. 

i got him as a toss-in on a Kamara for Evans trade, so hopefully the Pats will narrow the rotation down a little. 

All due respect to Lombardi, but the doom and gloom around this dude seems pretty over the top. His production was primarily limited by the Pats overall offensive decline, OL issues & having a RBBC from hell. I didn’t see anything in his play that looked like his knee was the issue. Looked more like that line can’t open holes up the middle. 

of course we may never know if the Pats never commit to using him with any sort of consistency.

maybe if/when Brady moves on The Pats will run more. Maybe not. A change of scenery To a team committed to the run might well be the best thing for Michele. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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On 1/17/2020 at 12:47 AM, Hot Sauce Guy said:

He looked fantastic in the preseason, and any time they decided to feature him he looked pretty good. He wasn’t bad in the playoffs. 

i got him as a toss-in on a Kamara for Evans trade, so hopefully the Pats will narrow the rotation down a little. 

All due respect to Lombardi, but the doom and gloom around this dude seems pretty over the top. His production was primarily limited by the Pats overall offensive decline, OL issues & having a RBBC from hell. I didn’t see anything in his play that looked like his knee was the issue. Looked more like that line can’t open holes up the middle. 

of course we may never know if the Pats never commit to using him with any sort of consistency.

maybe if/when Brady moves on The Pats will run more. Maybe not. A change of scenery To a team committed to the run might well be the best thing for Michele. 

He will be fine spelling Harris next year. He was okay at times this year, but clearly lacks the burst and speed we saw at Georgia. His degenerative knee is the likely cause and he’s a player I won’t be drafting. 

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31 minutes ago, FGITLOTR said:

He will be fine spelling Harris next year. He was okay at times this year, but clearly lacks the burst and speed we saw at Georgia. His degenerative knee is the likely cause and he’s a player I won’t be drafting. 

Because Harris showed so much this year that he took the job by the reins and never looked back? 

you were super impressed by Harris 4 carries for 12 yards (3 YPC) vs Michele’s 247 for 912 (3.7 YPC) & 9 TD?

:shrug:
 

I doubt Burkhead comes back, so Harris likely gets some play, but I’m not sure what your basing your theory on here. 

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Sony Michel is best left undrafted on your team unless you get him in the sixth or seventh.

He's awful. 

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Not a guy I’ll likely be targeting next year. Saw him run straight into piles too many times and show little burst throughout the year. 

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37 minutes ago, rockaction said:

Sony Michel is best left undrafted on your team unless you get him in the sixth or seventh.

He's awful. 

He’s better than people are giving him credit for. 

i won’t be targeting him in redraft, but IMO he’s a hold in dynasty for now. Maybe even a buy-low. 

if Burkhead is gone next year, Sony could be a centerpiece of the Pats offense. They need to get their OL issues sorted out - they’re an awful run blocking team.

But as a 6-7-8th round RB4-5 you could do worse than Michele in redraft. 

New England in general kinda feels like an avoid next year,  but IMO Michele is shouldering way too much of the blame. 

14 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

Not a guy I’ll likely be targeting next year. Saw him run straight into piles too many times and show little burst throughout the year. 

Helps if the OL opens holes. The RB runs to where the play is designed for him to run. I saw the same result as you. And like you, I’ll also avoid Michele in redraft as anything other than BYE week filler. 

but I don’t think it’s Michele’s fault that the OL sucked, and his 3.7 YPC shows he was better than people seem to think. 

I understand why people will avoid him,  but I also expect an over-correction to the point that he becomes a value pick next year. 

sort of like how everyone overreacted following his monster preseason & drafted him way too high this year. ;) 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

sort of like how everyone overreacted follows his monster preseason and postseason last year & drafted him way too high this year. ;) 

FYP and you've got me. 

:bag:

Seriously, your points are taken and I just disagree with them. Belichick seems to disagree with us naysayers, but Bill's left a lot of points on the field in terms of player evaluation, too. He's not infallible. 

Edited by rockaction
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2 minutes ago, rockaction said:

FYP and you've got me. 

:bag:

Seriously, your points are taken and I just disagree with them. Belichick seems to disagree with us naysayers, but Bill's left a lot of points on the field in terms of player evaluation, too. He's not infallible. 

Yeah - I didn’t want to rub it in too much but you’re right - his postseason last year combined with his preseason had people salivating.

i recall specific discussion about how good he looked & how his knee seemed to not be a problem.

which is why it’s a little amusing to see everyone harping on his knee when it was obvious that the Pats OL was terrible at opening any holes. Most of the Pats run success seemed to be around the outside.

Also, Michele didn’t look too bad against TEN in the playoffs. 18 for 72 (4 YOC) & a TD. Most folks would call that a pretty decent day for a RB  Maybe you disagree? :shrug: 

 

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6 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Also, Michele didn’t look too bad against TEN in the playoffs. 18 for 72 (4 YOC) & a TD. Most folks would call that a pretty decent day for a RB  Maybe you disagree? :shrug:

His main problem in these threads is he has absolutely no floor to speak of. You can't use him, and you learn that quick. He utterly nuked fantasy teams early season and cost games single-handedly with his no floor performances in spots. It was an ugly thing, and one can chalk it up to usage, but good backs get their due during a game for the most part. The only comparison to him in the usage/bellcow dept. is Mixon from early to late season, but Mixon didn't absolutely kill you and if so, did so against tough defenses, not the NFL East. 

Edited by rockaction

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20 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

He’s better than people are giving him credit for. 

i won’t be targeting him in redraft, but IMO he’s a hold in dynasty for now. Maybe even a buy-low. 

if Burkhead is gone next year, Sony could be a centerpiece of the Pats offense. They need to get their OL issues sorted out - they’re an awful run blocking team.

But as a 6-7-8th round RB4-5 you could do worse than Michele in redraft. 

He's exactly the kind of guy I would NOT be looking for as a RB4-5.  With those guys I'd either want someone with big upside to become a solid starter or a high floor that is easy to plug in for bye weeks.

Sony provides neither of those.  He's a guy that could get you zero points or 10 points.  You can find those guys anywhere when the time comes that you need to plug one in.

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3 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

He's exactly the kind of guy I would NOT be looking for as a RB4-5.  With those guys I'd either want someone with big upside to become a solid starter or a high floor that is easy to plug in for bye weeks.

Sony provides neither of those.  He's a guy that could get you zero points or 10 points.  You can find those guys anywhere when the time comes that you need to plug one in.

This season, sure. 

in a crowded backfield with an offense that was clearly in decline. 

Next season could be a different story. Likely fewer mouths to feed. I expect them to retain White but both he & Burkhead could be gone.

i’m not saying Michele is the next LT2, but he’s gone from dramatically overvalued to dramatically undervalued in a hurry.

i got him essentially for free as part of a larger deal, so if be busts it’s not a trauma for me. But I do believe he’s got potential to be more valuable than he was this year.

the pendulum swings fast in FF. Recency bias to the extreme with this dude. 

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5 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

This season, sure. 

in a crowded backfield with an offense that was clearly in decline. 

Next season could be a different story. Likely fewer mouths to feed. I expect them to retain White but both he & Burkhead could be gone.

i’m not saying Michele is the next LT2, but he’s gone from dramatically overvalued to dramatically undervalued in a hurry.

i got him essentially for free as part of a larger deal, so if be busts it’s not a trauma for me. But I do believe he’s got potential to be more valuable than he was this year.

the pendulum swings fast in FF. Recency bias to the extreme with this dude. 

I just don't see what is likely to change next year.  White is still on his fully guaranteed contract and is far more valuable to the team than Sony, so there is no chance they cut him.  Burkhead they either keep or if not Harris can step right into his role.

The backfield will still be crowded.  The offense is still likely declining.

For free, sure.  But 6th-8th round I am looking for something more appealing than a TD dependent committee back that doesn't catch passes on an offense that likely won't score a lot of TDs.

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58 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I just don't see what is likely to change next year.  White is still on his fully guaranteed contract and is far more valuable to the team than Sony, so there is no chance they cut him.  Burkhead they either keep or if not Harris can step right into his role.

as I understand it they owe White & Burkhead nothing. White has no guaranteed money, and McDaniels & Brady could be gone. So both RB could walk, but I have a hard time seeing the Pats let White go.

then again, White was a safety valve for a QB who’s arm was in decline. They may see needs in other places next year. I honestly have no idea what The Pats offense will look like next year. 

we seem to take it as written in stone that the pats will he RBBC to the extreme, yet it was not that long ago they had a feature back / scat back combo to great effect. 

Quote

The backfield will still be crowded.  The offense is still likely declining.

these are both possibilities, sure. Hopefully there’s greater clarity on both by the time we’re drafting. 

Quote

For free, sure.  But 6th-8th round I am looking for something more appealing than a TD dependent committee back that doesn't catch passes on an offense that likely won't score a lot of TDs.

I agree in principal - it’s where I picked up Singletary this year (8th). But I’m saying there’s a possibility that the following happens:

• BB clearly went to Michele in the playoffs, which he did last year too. Maybe he sees that as a way forward (as so many here said he would this year) since he’s likely going to have a new OC & QB. 
• Burkhead is gone, White (less likely IMO) is gone.

• If Burkhead and/or White are gone, Harris/Michele could be splitting carries. While that sounds less than ideal, it could mean more consistent play than Michele has this year with fewer mouths to feed.

• New OC (Whomever that is) is less pass happy 
• NEP addresses OL in the draft / FA

if all or any combination of those things happens, I could easily see Michele as a solid value in the 6-8 round.

I’m just saying that right now we just don’t know enough to write him off. There are way too many variables in play, and what we do know is that BB trust Michele in the biggest situations, and leaned on him in the playoffs, again. That’s hard to ignore. And Michele’s production wasn’t why the Pats lost. 

claims of his knee being a major issue seem overblown & unfounded given his solid production when given the touches/opportunity. The bigger issues have been 1. opportunity & 2. a poor run blocking OL. 

I think there’s a strong chance that Michele vastly outperforms his draft day ADP next season & becomes something of a post-post-hype sleeper. 

But I totally understand why people would avoid him altogether. A lot of people got burned by Michele two years in a row.  But perspective matters - if people didn’t believe there was something there, they wouldn’t have been burned.  

since I got him for free, I’m essentially playing devil’s advocate here - but if he does well, I obviously wouldn’t mind. I just see very little big picture analysis in this topic and a whole lot of “he sucks” or “the knee!” or tales of running into his OL (which literally every RB does every single game).
 

Mile-high view, I just don’t think we know enough to properly evaluate him for 2020. And what we do actually know shows a pretty good player who could be more than that if the opportunity presents itself. Will be good to revisit this around August to see what the Pats have done. 

Edited by Hot Sauce Guy

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22 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I agree in principal - it’s where I picked up Singletary this year (8th). But I’m saying there’s a possibility that the following happens:

• BB clearly went to Michele in the playoffs, which he did last year too. Maybe he sees that as a way forward (as so many here said he would this year) since he’s likely going to have a new OC & QB. 
• Burkhead is gone, White (less likely IMO) is gone.

• If Burkhead and/or White are gone, Harris/Michele could be splitting carries. While that sounds less than ideal, it could mean more consistent play than Michele has this year with fewer mouths to feed.

• New OC (Whomever that is) is less pass happy 
• NEP addresses OL in the draft / FA

if all or any combination of those things happens, I could easily see Michele as a solid value in the 6-8 round.

I’m just saying that right now we just don’t know enough to write him off. There are way too many variables in play, and what we do know is that BB trust Michele in the biggest situations, and leaned on him in the playoffs, again. That’s hard to ignore. And Michele’s production wasn’t why the Pats lost. 

claims of his knee being a major issue seem overblown & unfounded given his solid production when given the touches/opportunity. The bigger issues have been 1. opportunity & 2. a poor run blocking OL. 

I think there’s a strong chance that Michele vastly outperforms his draft day ADP next season & becomes something of a post-post-hype sleeper. 

But I totally understand why people would avoid him altogether. A lot of people got burned by Michele two years in a row.  But perspective matters - if people didn’t believe there was something there, they wouldn’t have been burned.  

since I got him for free, I’m essentially playing devil’s advocate here - but if he does well, I obviously wouldn’t mind. I just see very little big picture analysis in this topic and a whole lot of “he sucks” or “the knee!” or tales of running into his OL (which literally every RB does every single game).
 

Mile-high view, I just don’t think we know enough to properly evaluate him for 2020. And what we do actually know shows a pretty good player who could be more than that if the opportunity presents itself. Will be good to revisit this around August to see what the Pats have done. 

I get what you're saying, but we can do this exercise for any player being drafted in that range.  Any player anywhere in the draft, really.  Even 15th rounders we can conjure up a list of things that might happen to make them a good value.  That's why they get drafted.

Sony's list of things we need to conjure up to make him a good pick there just seem far less likely to actually happen than the other guys that will be likely picked in that area to me.  And his upside seems much less than the other guys that will likely be available in those same scenarios as well.

I've never been burned by Michel (I always avoid guys whose value rose based on postseason play) and I don't think his lack of interest is just spite from people that were.  People are pretty universally uninterested in him whether they drafted him this past year or not.

There is no shortage of guys who have been committee backs behind bad offensive lines for whom we can dream up a scenario where they leave all that behind pop the following year.  Most of them actually offer some upside as a receiver, have looked more dynamic than Sony, yet are still generally cheaper.

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5 minutes ago, FreeBaGeL said:

I get what you're saying, but we can do this exercise for any player being drafted in that range.  Any player anywhere in the draft, really.  Even 15th rounders we can conjure up a list of things that might happen to make them a good value.  That's why they get drafted.

Sony's list of things we need to conjure up to make him a good pick there just seem far less likely to actually happen than the other guys that will be likely picked in that area to me.  And his upside seems much less than the other guys that will likely be available in those same scenarios as well.

I've never been burned by Michel (I always avoid guys whose value rose based on postseason play) and I don't think his lack of interest is just spite from people that were.  People are pretty universally uninterested in him whether they drafted him this past year or not.

There is no shortage of guys who have been committee backs behind bad offensive lines for whom we can dream up a scenario where they leave all that behind pop the following year.  Most of them actually offer some upside as a receiver, have looked more dynamic than Sony, yet are still generally cheaper.

Again; this is why we need to wait until August to see how everything shakes out. 

but I’ll disagree that Michele has less upside or greater risk than those with likely similar ADP.  He has a track record of proven success. 

Right now it’s not possible to know what Michele’s value will be in August. The dust needs to settle on a number of issues in NE to see what Michele’s upside actually is. 

again, if people want to write him off, I get it. I just think that’s premature. 

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I think FreeBagel just totally changed my mind with some solid analysis. If you can wait on a horse to shake out, this guy is undraftable other than in desperation or in later rounds.

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3 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I think FreeBagel just totally changed my mind with some solid analysis. If you can wait on a horse to shake out, this guy is undraftable other than in desperation or in later rounds.

How did that “change your mind”?

This has been your position all along. :lol: 

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10 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

How did that “change your mind”?

This has been your position all along. :lol: 

I said sixth or seventh would be a good place to take him if he was there. I'm sort of convinced FreeBagel is right. I'd rather have what you did in the sixth -- a Singletary type guy -- than Sony. But, to clarify, I said this...

3 hours ago, rockaction said:

Sony Michel is best left undrafted on your team unless you get him in the sixth or seventh.

I should have said sixth or lower, but it was implied. 

Edited by rockaction

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7 minutes ago, rockaction said:

I said sixth or seventh would be a good place to take him if he was there. I'm sort of convinced FreeBagel is right. I'd rather have what you did in the sixth -- a Singletary type guy -- than Sony. But, to clarify, I said this...

I should have said sixth or lower, but it was implied. 

Ah - so now you’re a DND on him, even though we have no idea what the Patriots are going to look like in 2020?

 That’s your prerogative. I suspect a great many others will agree with you & follow suit.

which, again, makes Michele a potential bargain in the 8th or maybe even later. 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Ah - so now you’re a DND on him, even though we have no idea what the Patriots are going to look like in 2020?

 That’s your prerogative. I suspect a great many others will agree with you & follow suit.

which, again, makes Michele a potential bargain in the 8th or maybe even later. 

No, not really. For clarity's sake, I would not draft him as high as previously indicated.  I said he's virtually undraftable, but that's at what will be a likely inflated ADP.

I may, indeed, reserve the right to take him in the ninth or tenth or something.

I haven't started my rank orders yet. I get the fresh in your mind thing, but I llke to see where these guys are going to go and how the front offices and coaches talk about them before I rank order. So that happens late for me. Which ain't no thing, as I draft redraft and late, though I may break through and get a dyno this year with IDP. (Which I could use help with, mang.)

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7 minutes ago, rockaction said:

No, not really. For clarity's sake, I would not draft him as high as previously indicated.  I said he's virtually undraftable, but that's at what will be a likely inflated ADP.

I may, indeed, reserve the right to take him in the ninth or tenth or something.

I’m really not the “defend Sony Michele to the teeth” dude I may seem to be based on my above contributions. I try to be measured in my takes about him. He may well be worthless. 

but there is at least the possibility that he’s more valuable next year than he was this, and he was actually quite valuable this year if inconsistent. If the consistency is improved, Michele’s floor will be significantly higher. 

Quote

I haven't started my rank orders yet. I get the fresh in your mind thing, but I llke to see where these guys are going to go and how the front offices and coaches talk about them before I rank order. So that happens late for me. Which ain't no thing, as I draft redraft and late, though I may break through and get a dyno this year with IDP. (Which I could use help with, mang.)

Will be happy to help. HMU whenever, my PM’s are open. IDP is the best way to play FF in my humble opinion. Adds a ton of entertainment while watching, too.

 

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1 minute ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

I’m really not the “defend Sony Michele to the teeth” dude I may seem to be based on my above contributions. I try to be measured in my takes about him. He may well be worthless.

I know that, GB. Just discussing.

2 minutes ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Will be happy to help. HMU whenever, my PM’s are open. IDP is the best way to play FF in my humble opinion. Adds a ton of entertainment while watching, too.

Thanks. I might take you up on it, all things falling into place and whatnot.  

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1 hour ago, Hot Sauce Guy said:

Will be happy to help. HMU whenever, my PM’s are open. IDP is the best way to play FF in my humble opinion. Adds a ton of entertainment while watching, too.

 

IDP is the best way to play ff.

 

Also want to take this moment to congratulate myself again for trading away Michel for Godwin this preseason.

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This really isn't that complicated. In the 29 regular season games Michel had played, he's averaged 68.5 YFS, 0.45 TD, and 0.65 receptions per game. That works out to 9.55 ppg in 0 ppr leagues and 10.2 ppg in 1 ppr leagues. That's like RB25 in standard and RB35 in PPR. That's what he is. People got smitten on how he did in the playoffs last year, but that's not a regular season reality. He's an ok fantasy flex player . . . maybe a really weak RB2. I don't see that changing unless he starts taking half the workload away from James White (or the NE receiving back, whomever that may be). His fantasy value is based on games with a heavy workload and goal line carries. NE struggled to get to the goal line this year and struggled even more once they got there. IMO, Michel in PPR league should probably be a 7th or 8th round pick.

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