KarmaPolice

FanDuel Playoffs Week 1

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Anybody doing much for the playoffs this weekend?

I have my league that still runs for the next 3 weeks, so I have to do that.  I will also try to put a couple things together for gpps too.  Not sure about cash, I guess it will depend on how confident I am in some of the LUs I come up with.  

I will post thoughts tonight or tomorrow, as I see odds differences in the stats I usually look at - ie Pts allowed and OL vs. DL matchups.  

On first look it feels like the QBs are pretty close and kind of a crap shoot, and it's hard to get a higher end WR in the lineup since it's probably a bad idea to skip out on Gurley.  

 

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So like I said, the FD pts allowed matchups and OL vs. DL don't line up, and I find that weird.  

Vs. teams that are allowing the most points the last 5 weeks to RBs:  Jax, Car, KC, NO

Best matchups OL vs. DL:  Rams, Atl, NO, Tenn.  

So just NO appears on both lists, and of course it's the team that has a split workload backfield.   I think it will get solidified if Freeman continues to DNP or D.Murray.   Since Coleman and Henry are sub 7K.  Coleman is somebody I am looking at anyway.  

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I THINK it's going to be more popular to pay up for RBs, so  maybe a gpp strategy would be to put in 2 high priced receiving options and see what you can do around that?  I started a LU by plugging in Kelce and M.Thomas and didn't hate what I got, and have one written down that has Gurley in there too.  

For cash/league LU, I thinking about a core like:  Brees - Gurley/Fournette - Ginn/Sanu/Decker - Kelce - Butker - NO.

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2 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

So like I said, the FD pts allowed matchups and OL vs. DL don't line up, and I find that weird.  

Where are you getting this information?

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On ‎1‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 8:19 AM, KarmaPolice said:

For cash/league LU, I thinking about a core like:  Brees - Gurley/Fournette - Ginn/Sanu/Decker - Kelce - Butker - NO.

Still leaning with this.  Won't have a lot of time tomorrow or Saturday morning b/c we have a late family Christmas this weekend.  

Did a few free/$1 gpps too:  One is a Rams/Falcons game stack with Goff/Woods/Kupp + Julio/Coleman  the other is another fade of Gurley with Fournette/Ingram/Julio/Kelce/JaxD

I also have 1 $1 entry each in the 2 game slates that I will look at in a bit.  

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On 04/01/2018 at 3:05 PM, KarmaPolice said:

Still leaning with this.  Won't have a lot of time tomorrow or Saturday morning b/c we have a late family Christmas this weekend.  

Did a few free/$1 gpps too:  One is a Rams/Falcons game stack with Goff/Woods/Kupp + Julio/Coleman  the other is another fade of Gurley with Fournette/Ingram/Julio/Kelce/JaxD

I also have 1 $1 entry each in the 2 game slates that I will look at in a bit.  

As much as I hate to fade Gurley, that seems like the right gpp move this week.  I do like the Fournette/Jax D stack.

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14 hours ago, TwinTurbo said:

As much as I hate to fade Gurley, that seems like the right gpp move this week.  I do like the Fournette/Jax D stack.

I'm thinking about creating 60 unique lineups 20 in each mini slate and 20 in the main slate - at the 25 cent level:lol: .  60 entries for 15 bucks.  Anyway, I'll have Gurley in about 20 of those lineups.  

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Posted (edited)

2 hours ago, Steeler said:

I'm thinking about creating 60 unique lineups 20 in each mini slate and 20 in the main slate - at the 25 cent level:lol: .  60 entries for 15 bucks.  Anyway, I'll have Gurley in about 20 of those lineups.  

I am still debating to Gurley or not to Gurley for main lineups.  

My 4 25cent gpps I stacked the 4 underdogs - one for each LU, and went from there.  

I have 11 lineups in play for a whole $6. 

Edited by KarmaPolice

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I have struggled so bad this year that I just don't feel like I can offer much. But I will say this: RB's below the top-tier seem to me to be to much of a crap-shoot. I'm basically building around Gurlery/Kamara/Fournette & Ingram, mid-tier QB's like Ryan & Smitth, going for contrarian plays at WR [think T. Gabriel for starters]. I also have no problem saying that I am running out Sam Ficken as my K. $4.5K, team should give him plenty of chances and I think he may not be very popular.

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For roster uniqueness, it seems like the most contrarian play for gpp is to go heavier than most on some Bills players. The crowd thinks the Jags are going to crush them. McCoy is banged up. Everything looks bad for the Bills. So I'm rolling out some Tyrod lineups for the win.

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3 man

Brees Freeman Fournette Ginn Julio Decker Kelce Succup KC

$1 SE gpp

Cam Hunt McCaff Thomas Sanu Woods Walker Bryant Atl

Good luck all

 

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50 minutes ago, TwinTurbo said:

For roster uniqueness, it seems like the most contrarian play for gpp is to go heavier than most on some Bills players. The crowd thinks the Jags are going to crush them. McCoy is banged up. Everything looks bad for the Bills. So I'm rolling out some Tyrod lineups for the win.

:yes:

I have a bit of Clay and a couple Tyrod.

I think in general, the underdogs had some interesting gpp fliers - CDavis, Buff wrs, Gabriel/Coleman, Bresin.  I also think an odd TE like Lewis or Hooper was worth a shot too.  

Good luck, all - let's get one if us to the top of the tourneys!

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0% Of Alex Smith for me, and he looks great so far.  

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Wow Mariota got 10 points for passing a TD (to himself) and receiving a TD in the same play.  Crazy.

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Looking good not great here. Only had $23 in play when I saw the $75000 $5 late contest was only going to fill to $62000. That’s a boatload of overlay

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Best sat 4pm lineup is at 111 with fournette and gin to play

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14 hours ago, KarmaPolice said:

Had 0% of Henry too.  Doh! 

Used him in the Bitcoin freeroll but paired with Gurly

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So far not great.  Best teams are about 70pts with 4 players left each.  I still have 1 Sunday only team too.  

Basically both games went exactly the opposite of how I thought they would go.  Maybe that means I should go heavy on Carolina and Buffalo today? 

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Keep getting this message....you must have a player from three teams

 

that player (three different ones) has zero pts thus far

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Need some sweat for Lamar’s and Hill. Currently in the top 5 in two big contests

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Good luck!!

I pitched an o-fer on the weekend, and wasn't even close to cash lines.  

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Was fluctuating back and forth between $500 and $3000 from the second quarter too early in the fourth. Got swamped by the cam and Olson owners way and ended up winning $200

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Exciting ride. Camero would gain 3 yards and I would move up $500. Thomas would get a catch and I’d drop 1000.

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34 minutes ago, BassNBrew said:

Was fluctuating back and forth between $500 and $3000 from the second quarter too early in the fourth. Got swamped by the cam and Olson owners way and ended up winning $200

Still a nice day! :thumbup:

 

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The main mistake I made was not shaking up the roster construction at all.  I was dead set that only 1 of the games was going to be competitive with the home teams winning easily and paying up at RB was the key.   That got me really locked into Fournette-Gurley-NO Rbs and cheaper options all over the WRs and TEs, and as we see it was the opposite of that and the top of the leaderboards I saw was Henry/Freeman/McCaffrey and Julio/Olsen/Thomas/Woods   

I need to go back to having that 1 lineup of opposite thinking to mix it up, especially in weeks when I should have seen that all my lineups were all looking the same construction-wise.

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I went  o-fer as well.   Fell into the stereotypical short slate H2H trap. Opponent and I had seven out of nine roster slots identical, making it my Tyreek / Rishard Matthews vs his Michael Thomas/ Eric Decker.    As soon as Decker caught a TD, I knew I was doomed!

I think I am done for the season.  Want to walk away with my measly $30 profit for the 2017 season.  I was up $80 around Halloween, then gave most of it back.  I found this to be a much harder year in cash, and never had a noteworthy GPP win, either.   In hindsight, I think my 2016 debut was successful because I was able to hammer the FD Beginner contests so effectively.  Once I was excluded from Beginner contests, things got tough in a hurry.

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Ugh. 

I just looked and they have it as 2 two game 'main' slates with the big gpps for those and the 4 game slate is the weird one with less gpps.  Dont like that at all. 

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Posted (edited)

On 1/6/2018 at 3:54 PM, Raging weasel said:

3 man

Brees Freeman Fournette Ginn Julio Decker Kelce Succup KC

$1 SE gpp

Cam Hunt McCaff Thomas Sanu Woods Walker Bryant Atl

Good luck all

 

Cashed with both of these. $3 in $9.40 out. 

Got caught chasing overlay in PGA tho and went 0-fer there $8 in 0 out so still down for the week. Lost my PGA 3man on the last hole by 1.2:(

Edited by Raging weasel

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