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QB Josh Rosen, MIN (5 Viewers)

Actually I'm really not interested in turning this into some deeply analytical statistical debate for something as nuanced as offensive line impact in running back performance.  But if the narrative is the entire Cardinals offensive line was injured favors Rosen, then it stands to reason the same argument applies to DJ, correct?  And DJ hasn't suffered any major leg injuries that would cause steep, severe decline since his 2,000/20 season two years ago and is still in his prime, correct?  Sometimes it really is the most obvious explanation.

Feel free to outtalk me on the subject.  

 
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skinfanjon said:
Every Rosen supporter correctly points out the trainwreck the Cards were last year, but how is Washington better?  I don't see any David Johnson's or Larry Fitzgerald's over here.  Head coach on his final notice, terrible leadership up top, no wide receivers worth mentioning at the moment, chronically injured (but talented, yes) offensive line...and he's going to flourish here?
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I said this earlier in the thread but everyone seems so willing to give Rosen a pass due to bad o-line, coaching and supporting cast, yet both Darnold and Allen showed a lot more and both had very bad o-lines, poor offensive coaching and neither had anything close to David Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald on their side. Darnold and Allen progressed over the course of the season while Rosen regressed.

That's not to say Rosen can't turn it around under better conditions - if I was the Redskins' I'd give up a second in a heartbeat - but it's not a sure thing at all and Rosen looked overmatched for sure last year.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I said this earlier in the thread but everyone seems so willing to give Rosen a pass due to bad o-line, coaching and supporting cast, yet both Darnold and Allen showed a lot more and both had very bad o-lines, poor offensive coaching and neither had anything close to David Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald on their side. Darnold and Allen progressed over the course of the season while Rosen regressed.

That's not to say Rosen can't turn it around under better conditions - if I was the Redskins' I'd give up a second in a heartbeat - but it's not a sure thing at all and Rosen looked overmatched for sure last year.
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25 or 26 =/= 32 in rankings

Arizona was dead last in the league. 11 different OL played at least 100 snaps last year for the cardinals. 

Arizona didnt just have a bad OL, they were just awful. To say BUF and NYJ each had a comparably bad OL is just a bad stance to take. 

Where is the narrative that David Johnson had a good season coming from??? David Johnson did not have a good rushing season. YPC were his worst of his career minus the small sample size from 2017. 

Lowest TDs of his career... lower than his rookie year where he started only 5 games...

If you think he had a great year running the ball, then you must think Jordan Howard tore it up last year as DJ only had 5 yards more than Howard. 

Sure, he had a good fantasy season... because he caught 50 passes. Usually if you cant run the ball and you dont have time to throw it deep, then you have to dump the ball off to the rb. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
25 or 26 =/= 32 in rankings

Arizona was dead last in the league. 11 different OL played at least 100 snaps last year for the cardinals. 

Arizona didnt just have a bad OL, they were just awful. To say BUF and NYJ each had a comparably bad OL is just a bad stance to take. 

Where is the narrative that David Johnson had a good season coming from??? David Johnson did not have a good rushing season. YPC were his worst of his career minus the small sample size from 2017. 

Lowest TDs of his career... lower than his rookie year where he started only 5 games...

If you think he had a great year running the ball, then you must think Jordan Howard tore it up last year as DJ only had 5 yards more than Howard. 

Sure, he had a good fantasy season... because he caught 50 passes. Usually if you cant run the ball and you dont have time to throw it deep, then you have to dump the ball off to the rb. 
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And just imagine the year DJ would have had if Rosen could throw a screen pass...

 
Dr. Dan said:
Arizona didnt just have a bad OL, they were just awful. To say BUF and NYJ each had a comparably bad OL is just a bad stance to take. 
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I watch the Jets every week and see enough of Buffalo to say it's not a bad stance to take - and just because Arizona may have been the worst o-line in the league doesn't take away from the fact that the Jets and Bills both had terrible o-lines as well - Darnold and Allen were both under constant pressure (and the fact that each are far more mobile than Rosen were pluses in dealing with that).

I can find that broccoli, spinach and kale all taste really bad even though I think kale is the worst of the bunch. I'm not sure why I even have to explain that.

As to your David Johnson rhetoric I did not say he had a great season so I'm not sure where that came from - I only mentioned him to point out that the Jets or Bills did not have any talent close to him or Larry Fitzgerald in their offensive depth charts.

 
Dr. Octopus said:
I watch the Jets every week and see enough of Buffalo to say it's not a bad stance to take - and just because Arizona may have been the worst o-line in the league doesn't take away from the fact that the Jets and Bills both had terrible o-lines as well - Darnold and Allen were both under constant pressure (and the fact that each are far more mobile than Rosen were pluses in dealing with that).

I can find that broccoli, spinach and kale all taste really bad even though I think kale is the worst of the bunch. I'm not sure why I even have to explain that.

As to your David Johnson rhetoric I did not say he had a great season so I'm not sure where that came from - I only mentioned him to point out that the Jets or Bills did not have any talent close to him or Larry Fitzgerald in their offensive depth charts.
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Perhaps the slightly better OL play made up for the lack of talent available. 

Rosen had zero time and had no chance last season. You could have given him Jerry Rice and I dont think he would have had time to get him the ball

 
One interesting positive that they’re talking about on local radio is that Rosen was the first person into the building for offseason workouts. That’s pretty cool considering the circumstance.

 
Dr. Dan said:
25 or 26 =/= 32 in rankings

Arizona was dead last in the league. 11 different OL played at least 100 snaps last year for the cardinals. 

Arizona didnt just have a bad OL, they were just awful. To say BUF and NYJ each had a comparably bad OL is just a bad stance to take. 

Where is the narrative that David Johnson had a good season coming from??? David Johnson did not have a good rushing season. YPC were his worst of his career minus the small sample size from 2017. 

Lowest TDs of his career... lower than his rookie year where he started only 5 games...

If you think he had a great year running the ball, then you must think Jordan Howard tore it up last year as DJ only had 5 yards more than Howard. 

Sure, he had a good fantasy season... because he caught 50 passes. Usually if you cant run the ball and you dont have time to throw it deep, then you have to dump the ball off to the rb. 
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Do you really not see the problem here?

 
skinfanjon said:
Do you really not see the problem here?
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AZ had the worst OL, and DJ had the worst year of his career. 

I guess we will have to just disagree and move on... If Rosen has zero time to throw the ball, and DJ has limited to jo room to run, then the problem isnt the QB and RB. I'm willing to give Rosen another season or two before I completely cut bait. I'm lower on him now than this time last year, but hopeful. Getting out of AZ will be the best thing for him. Let Murray run for his life. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
AZ had the worst OL, and DJ had the worst year of his career. 

I guess we will have to just disagree and move on... If Rosen has zero time to throw the ball, and DJ has limited to jo room to run, then the problem isnt the QB and RB. I'm willing to give Rosen another season or two before I completely cut bait. I'm lower on him now than this time last year, but hopeful. Getting out of AZ will be the best thing for him. Let Murray run for his life. 
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If you want to pin *everything* on the o-line, then go right ahead.  I disagree because it's more nuanced than a blanket excuse, but I'll admit it's plausible.  The problem is people (yourself included) are excusing Rosen while penalizing DJ.  That's inconsistent.

 
Dr. Dan said:
AZ had the worst OL, and DJ had the worst year of his career. 

I guess we will have to just disagree and move on... If Rosen has zero time to throw the ball, and DJ has limited to jo room to run, then the problem isnt the QB and RB. I'm willing to give Rosen another season or two before I completely cut bait. I'm lower on him now than this time last year, but hopeful. Getting out of AZ will be the best thing for him. Let Murray run for his life. 
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I think part of the disconnect is that most of us doubting Rosen aren’t “completely cutting bait.” We just don’t think he’s shown anything to warrant the belief that he can become a top 5-10 QB in the league. 

 
kutta said:
One interesting positive that they’re talking about on local radio is that Rosen was the first person into the building for offseason workouts. That’s pretty cool considering the circumstance.
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I'll give him credit for not going AB levels of nuts, but that's about it.  I have to assume Arizona has communicated their intentions and that he needs to not ruin his trade value in the interim.  Or maybe he or his agent sees it.  Probably all three at the same time tbh.

 
kutta said:
I think part of the disconnect is that most of us doubting Rosen aren’t “completely cutting bait.” We just don’t think he’s shown anything to warrant the belief that he can become a top 5-10 QB in the league. 
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Right.  I even said I'm on board with trading for him as long as it's not a 1st, despite the fact I think he'll fail.  It's still worth the risk.

 
skinfanjon said:
If you want to pin *everything* on the o-line, then go right ahead.  I disagree because it's more nuanced than a blanket excuse, but I'll admit it's plausible.  The problem is people (yourself included) are excusing Rosen while penalizing DJ.  That's inconsistent.
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How do I penalize DJ? he had the worst year of his career. I've said that is likely due to OL play. If anything, how well he did do is indicative of his talent! 

I guess I'm missing the point here... I think both Rosen and DJ played bad last year, and both for the same reasons. How is that not consistent? Maybe someone else has made a different argument but to me it's clear thay both under performed. 

kutta said:
I think part of the disconnect is that most of us doubting Rosen aren’t “completely cutting bait.” We just don’t think he’s shown anything to warrant the belief that he can become a top 5-10 QB in the league. 
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I dont think it takes much to finish in the top 10. several QBs do so every year who are average NFL QBs. I dont think he has shown anything elite either, but I also dont think that's a negative grade; I see his rookie season as an Incomplete. 

I have hopes for him to be top 5 someday but realistically I'd put him.in the 7-10 range

 
Dr. Dan said:
How do I penalize DJ? he had the worst year of his career. I've said that is likely due to OL play. If anything, how well he did do is indicative of his talent! 

I guess I'm missing the point here... I think both Rosen and DJ played bad last year, and both for the same reasons. How is that not consistent? Maybe someone else has made a different argument but to me it's clear thay both under performed. 

I dont think it takes much to finish in the top 10. several QBs do so every year who are average NFL QBs. I dont think he has shown anything elite either, but I also dont think that's a negative grade; I see his rookie season as an Incomplete. 

I have hopes for him to be top 5 someday but realistically I'd put him.in the 7-10 range
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I just went and looked at a list of QB rankings. It's going to be very tough for him to break into the top 15 any time soon.

 
skinfanjon said:
Then what are you trying to imply with this silly thing?  
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I'm trying to understand why OL who dont pass protect well would affect a RB running the ball. 

AZs entire line was terrible, but you and Octopus seem to imply that DJ had a pro bowl season, so if he can do well with a bad OL why cant Rosen? 

You're comparing apples to oranges. Even if DJ had a great season, it doesnt reflect much on the OL blocking for Rosen. It's like saying if a defense is great against the run, why cant they be equally as good against the pass. 

 
Dr. Dan said:
I'm trying to understand why OL who dont pass protect well would affect a RB running the ball. 

AZs entire line was terrible, but you and Octopus seem to imply that DJ had a pro bowl season, so if he can do well with a bad OL why cant Rosen? 

You're comparing apples to oranges. Even if DJ had a great season, it doesnt reflect much on the OL blocking for Rosen. It's like saying if a defense is great against the run, why cant they be equally as good against the pass. 
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It's like you're having three different arguments with yourself.  All I'm talking about is apples.  You're the one adding oranges and bowling balls to the mix.

 
skinfanjon said:
It's like you're having three different arguments with yourself.  All I'm talking about is apples.  You're the one adding oranges and bowling balls to the mix.
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This thread is about Rosen

Someone mentioned his OL was bad

Then another poster said, well if the line was so bad then how did DJ do so well?

The reality is, he didnt. 

But the real question here is, why are we talking about DJ in a Rosen thread.

I'm out of this rabbit hole. This is on it's way to turning into as useless of a debate as the Alex Collins thread 2018... No thanks. I'll just disagree and see where he ends up in 2019 and how he plays

 
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Dr. Dan said:
AZs entire line was terrible, but you and Octopus seem to imply that DJ had a pro bowl season, so if he can do well with a bad OL why cant Rosen? 
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Can you please point out where I said this?

One more time - I only mentioned David Johnson to point out that the Jets or Bills did not have any talent close to him or Larry Fitzgerald in their offensive depth charts (because people defend Rosen by saying he was in a terrible situation while ignoring that Darnold and Allen were in equally terrible situations).

 
Dr. Dan said:
This thread is about Rosen

Someone mentioned his OL was bad

Then another poster said, well if the line was so bad then how did DJ do so well?

The reality is, he didnt. 

But the real question here is, why are we talking about DJ in a Rosen thread.

I'm out of this rabbit hole. This is on it's way to turning into as useless of a debate as the Alex Collins thread 2018... No thanks. I'll just disagree and see where he ends up in 2019 and how he plays
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The other poster suggested the Redskins has better RBs to support Rosen, which is a pretty big stretch at this juncture of Guice's ZERO carry career.  I asked why we're making o-line excuses for Rosen and not DJ.  Then you made your comment about olines being good at one thing but not another and how DJ doesn't depend on pass blocking, which supports the excise making for Rosen but not DJ theory I suggested.

Seems you misunderstood.

Either way, hes probably going to the Skins, and he's probably going to disappoint given the lack of talent around him is the same as he had when he disappoited in Arizona.  And that's whether we actually assign blame to him or excuse it away based on oline.

 
skinfanjon said:
Seems you misunderstood.

Either way, hes probably going to the Skins, and he's probably going to disappoint given the lack of talent around him is the same as he had when he disappoited in Arizona.  And that's whether we actually assign blame to him or excuse it away based on oline.
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I think I completely misunderstood...

I think he will undoubtedly disappoint in 2019 in Washington. The supporting cast there is unknown and only "potential"

My only hope is Gruden is gone and Rosen can have some kind of a Goff resurrection. If not then it's probably time to call him a fantasy qb2 or WW foder and move on

eta: if the surrounding talent lives up to potential he could do very well

 
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Dr. Dan said:
I think I completely misunderstood...

I think he will undoubtedly disappoint in 2019 in Washington. The supporting cast there is unknown and only "potential"

My only hope is Gruden is gone and Rosen can have some kind of a Goff resurrection. If not then it's probably time to call him a fantasy qb2 or WW foder and move on

eta: if the surrounding talent lives up to potential he could do very well
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To which as I mentioned above, not many QBs make the 180 Goff has, and It's pretty hard not to assign a good portion of his recent success to having Gurley, Cooks, Woods, Kupp, and McVay.  There isn't anywhere near that level of talent in DC, on which we seem to agree.

Soooo ipso factso lol, if Rosen comes to DC as it surely seems he will, expecting some transformation flies straight into the face of the excuses being made for why he stunk last year, which puts us back at square 1.  

In other words, he's ain't good...and Top 5 or even top 10 is downright hilarious.

ETA- the only "surrounding talent" on the Skins that has a chance of truly blossoming is Guice.  We will probably take a WR in the 1st but certainly the 2nd, so you can add that log to the fire too I suppose.  Which means he has a likely RB downgrade, at *best* similar receivers, and a significantly better oline when they all play together, which hasn't happened much at all in the last three seasons.  But the dysfunction on our squad is a huuuuggggeeee negative that cannot be ignored.  We don't develop players.  Period.

 
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skinfanjon said:
The other poster suggested the Redskins has better RBs to support Rosen, which is a pretty big stretch at this juncture of Guice's ZERO carry career.
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To be fair, its Guice, AP, and Chris Thompson. So yes, I believe those 3 Rbs can VERY MUCH aid a young QB. both in rushing and receiving the ball (Thompson) 

 
I Also think Rosen being 6'4" could really help the Redskins passing game as Keenum and McCoy are 6'1". While some shorter QBs do succeed I think that's a great advantage being able to see better over the line. I think Rosen can only get better in time, and the Skins have to do their part and get him better talent at WR and TE. Sounds like they KNOW that and plan to address that. The line and the RB core is very solid. 

 
ffmail4me said:
To be fair, its Guice, AP, and Chris Thompson. So yes, I believe those 3 Rbs can VERY MUCH aid a young QB. both in rushing and receiving the ball (Thompson) 
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Oh for sure.  It's a solid group.  We got an all-time (but aging vet), a rookie (essentially) with a ton of promise, and a pretty dangerous weapon when he's (rarely) healthy...though he's now 29 if I'm not mistaken.

They are an above average group, but it's not an UPGRADE.  Rosen already had one of the few backs with elite 3 down capabilities in the league, plus another talented weapon type in Edmunds.  2000/20 is in the books, very few backs have that in them.

 
Dr. Dan said:
personally I think Murray 1.1 is a smoke screen
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I think if a team offers the Cards an amazing deal for the 1, they would certainly take it, but if they don't trade out, I'd be shocked if the pick wasn't Murray. I'm torn personally, as I think Murray is the best player in the draft, but I like Rosen quite a bit. 

Just catching up on this thread, that went slightly off the rails a bit. I agree that Rosen had it harder than any QB last year, he hasn't become a bad prospect all of a sudden. I'd certainly rather have him than Drew Lock or Daniel Jones, and he may be easier to acquire than either of them, though if I were the Cardinals I'd take nothing less than a 1st rounder(doesn't have to be in 2019) for Rosen.

Rosen has never been as good of a prospect as Sam Darnold. Nothing changed on that front. I'd still rather have Rosen than Josh Allen, despite Allen having more success last season.

David Johnson kinda stunk last year, the o-line didn't help at all, but he also seemed to be looking for a place to fall down on many of his carries. I'm not saying he isn't talented anymore, and he was certainly misused, but it was clear he wasn't giving 100% last year. I do wonder if he'll bounce back, or if he and Arians was just a perfect match. 

 
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So do you guys think a trade (assuming he's traded and it sure sounds that way) won't happen until the draft? That seems VERY risky to me if I'm the Cardinals. Just seems his value could only go down if say one of the top 3 or 4 QBs falls to the Redskins at pick 15. Seems most of the QB needy teams are picking in that top 15 (other than talk of Chargers and Patriots maybe drafting a QB late to replace Rivers/Brady down the road) 

 
ffmail4me said:
So do you guys think a trade (assuming he's traded and it sure sounds that way) won't happen until the draft? That seems VERY risky to me if I'm the Cardinals. Just seems his value could only go down if say one of the top 3 or 4 QBs falls to the Redskins at pick 15. Seems most of the QB needy teams are picking in that top 15 (other than talk of Chargers and Patriots maybe drafting a QB late to replace Rivers/Brady down the road) 
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I think the framework of a deal is in place already.  Unless the Cards get an RG3 type offer or Murray changes his mind and goes back to baseball, I bet a deal happens a couple days before.

At this point I'm just assuming Rosen is already our QB.

 
travdogg said:
I think if a team offers the Cards an amazing deal for the 1, they would certainly take it, but if they don't trade out, I'd be shocked if the pick wasn't Murray. I'm torn personally, as I think Murray is the best player in the draft, but I like Rosen quite a bit. 
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I've been a believer that the Raiders pay up and move up to 1 to take Murray, but time is running out. I think if a trade for #1 occurs it happens at least a few weeks before the draft like in 2016.

 
Personally I think Kingsbury has sold the Cards on Murray being the next Mahomes.  I don't see anyone coming at them with a massive offer and I'm not sure they would accept one anyway.

Murray is a Card, Rosen is a Skin.  I'm 99.9% and 95% on those outcomes.

 
ericttspikes said:
I've been a believer that the Raiders pay up and move up to 1 to take Murray, but time is running out. I think if a trade for #1 occurs it happens at least a few weeks before the draft like in 2016.
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i think there is a good chance of this if the Raiders have a buyer for Carr

 
skinfanjon said:
Personally I think Kingsbury has sold the Cards on Murray being the next Mahomes.  I don't see anyone coming at them with a massive offer and I'm not sure they would accept one anyway.

Murray is a Card, Rosen is a Skin.  I'm 99.9% and 95% on those outcomes.
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I agree with this, except I'll add a few more decimal places.

99.99999% (we'll just round up to 100%) Murray is a Card.

95% Rosen is a Skin.

 
BassNBrew said:
Can you explain what the point of that would be?
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To generate interest in 1.1. from a team like Oakland maybe, who are picking high, might like him, and would trade up. 

Maybe AZ is just waiting until draft day to trade Rosen, but it seems like they havent been too interested in moving him. And I wouldnt blame them for waiting until draft day to move him, as his value would be higher. I just wouldnt be surprised if AZ traded out or didnt take him

 
Or NYG since Kyler Murray is at their training facility today.

6 and 17 not enough for the 1 (according to the chart) but its a good start

 
Dr. Dan said:
To generate interest in 1.1. from a team like Oakland maybe, who are picking high, might like him, and would trade up. 

Maybe AZ is just waiting until draft day to trade Rosen, but it seems like they havent been too interested in moving him. And I wouldnt blame them for waiting until draft day to move him, as his value would be higher. I just wouldnt be surprised if AZ traded out or didnt take him
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The flat Earth society totally agrees.

 
DexterDew said:
i think there is a good chance of this if the Raiders have a buyer for Carr
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https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/15/kyler-murray-cardinals-nfl-draft-peter-king-fmia/?cid=fmiatw

Suppose the Raiders, picking fourth, and coach Jon Gruden, who was openly covetous of Murray at the combine, decide that three of their five first-round picks in the next two drafts are worth using to get the first pick. Theoretically, suppose the Raiders trade the fourth and 27th picks in round one this year, plus one of their two first-rounders next year, to deal up to Arizona’s pick, and the Raiders take Murray. Then suppose they could recoup one of those first-round picks by trading quarterback Derek Carr to Miami or Washington or the Giants for a 2020 first-rounder. Over the next four years, the Raiders would save about $13 million a year by paying a first-pick quarterback an average of $8.5 million a year, as opposed to the $21.5 million average on the remaining four seasons of Carr’s contract.

 
DexterDew said:
https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2019/04/15/kyler-murray-cardinals-nfl-draft-peter-king-fmia/?cid=fmiatw

Suppose the Raiders, picking fourth, and coach Jon Gruden, who was openly covetous of Murray at the combine, decide that three of their five first-round picks in the next two drafts are worth using to get the first pick. Theoretically, suppose the Raiders trade the fourth and 27th picks in round one this year, plus one of their two first-rounders next year, to deal up to Arizona’s pick, and the Raiders take Murray. Then suppose they could recoup one of those first-round picks by trading quarterback Derek Carr to Miami or Washington or the Giants for a 2020 first-rounder. Over the next four years, the Raiders would save about $13 million a year by paying a first-pick quarterback an average of $8.5 million a year, as opposed to the $21.5 million average on the remaining four seasons of Carr’s contract.
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He lost me at the bolded part. No one is giving close to a 1st for Carr. Why would he be worth any more than Tannehill at this point?

 
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