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Dinsy Ejotuz

2020 Democratic Primaries

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Way too soon, but this is the world we live in -- and I thought it better to have one topic covering all of the would-bes instead of starting a new one each time.

Oprah's speech last night seems to be receiving a ton of attention this morning and people are reading it as a sign she'll run.  Which seemed crazy, but she's at 33/1 to be President (as an Independent, apparently -- she's not listed as a Dem).

Initial odds for the Dems being the standard bearer two years from now:

Kamala Harris - 6/1
Elizabeth Warren - 7/1
Bernie Sanders - 10/1
Joe Biden - 10/1
Kirsten Gillibrand - 10/1
Cory Booker - 20/1
Michelle Obama - 20/1
Amy Klobuchar - 25/1
Hillary Clinton - 25/1
Mark Zuckerberg - 25/1

Harris or Gillibrand seem like the best value on the list. 

 

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Even though I think Oprah would do a better job than Trump, I think it would be a mistake to run her.  Do we really want both parties willing to run and elect people that have no experience being elected officials or governing?  Still one of the most distasteful things about Trump (the candidate) was that it seemed obvious, to me at least, that he had no idea what he was doing.  Call me old fashioned but I kind of like the leader of the free world having some clue what they are doing and not having on the job training.

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i think the Dem party would not well served having someone like Warren running. I'd love to see her as the Senate Majority leader in a democratically controlled Senate, for example. I think someone like Julian Castro has a great chance if he can do something about his haircut. 

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5 hours ago, Leroy Hoard said:

Someone under 70 please.

Joseph P. Kennedy III. He will be about 40. Stanford undergrad, Harvard Law. Peace Corps. Fluent in Spanish. MA 4th District Representative. 

I still haven’t read or heard anything to indicate he is anything other than intelligent, polite, caring, and passionate. I think he also understands, better than most, that he is in office to help his constituents- sort of that old Boston Irish thing. Similarly, he is willing to put the gloves on. See his House takedown of Paul Ryan’s “mercy” comment, or his take on healthcare or tax cuts. 

OTOH, he is young, relatively inexperienced and in a more traditional time, should probably wait for Warren’s or Markey’s Senate seat, win that and put in a few more years before considering a potus run.

 

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5 hours ago, knowledge dropper said:

Biden at 10/1 is free money. 

If he's giving me free money, he's got my vote.

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5 hours ago, saintfool said:

i think the Dem party would not well served having someone like Warren running. I'd love to see her as the Senate Majority leader in a democratically controlled Senate, for example. I think someone like Julian Castro has a great chance if he can do something about his haircut. 

Agree with this. I don’t see Warren doing well in a National election, but being pretty effective in the Senate. I see Castro as being very similar to Joe Kennedy. Similar paths, but Castro has a few years on Kennedy.  Castro has that hair issue, Kennedy has the “Kennedy” issue. And what a ginger! Not sure that rises to the same level as Castro’s hair, tho.

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10 minutes ago, MrJimmy said:

Joseph P. Kennedy III. He will be about 40. Stanford undergrad, Harvard Law. Peace Corps. Fluent in Spanish. MA 4th District Representative. 

I still haven’t read or heard anything to indicate he is anything other than intelligent, polite, caring, and passionate. I think he also understands, better than most, that he is in office to help his constituents- sort of that old Boston Irish thing. Similarly, he is willing to put the gloves on. See his House takedown of Paul Ryan’s “mercy” comment, or his take on healthcare or tax cuts. 

OTOH, he is young, relatively inexperienced and in a more traditional time, should probably wait for Warren’s or Markey’s Senate seat, win that and put in a few more years before considering a potus run.

 

That's Bobby's grandkid, right?

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Would think age is a showstopper for Bernie, but if he strongly supports a candidate it could make all of the difference.

I think Booker would be the strongest candidate on the campaign grind.

I like Warren, and I have to say this, but I think her voice is a liability. It's tough to digest after a while.

Don't know much about Gillibrand. Seems nice, but she does not draw me in.

Maybe I am not paying attention very well, but Harris is not getting her name out there like I was expecting.

Biden, sure why not. 

Wish Jim Webb had a more magnetic personality and a willingness to run again. He would be my guy.

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Ideally the nominee will be somebody who is still not in the spotlight.

Honestly there is nobody who will win the Democratic primary who won't be 10000 times better than Trump, so main only big issue is who will run best against him. I want to start a movement to draft Tim Waltz to run. He is a rep from MN. He is likely likely to be the next governor. He is a working class guy (He was a teacher and football coach before running for office) and a veteran. He is basically the anti-Trump.

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On 1/8/2018 at 6:40 AM, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Hillary Clinton - 25/1

Sanders, Warren, and Clinton are sucker bets.

ETA: And Obama. I missed her the first time, but it’s hard to imagine her wanting to suffer through the aggravation of campaigning or presidenting.

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On 1/8/2018 at 6:40 AM, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Harris or Gillibrand seem like the best value on the list. 

I think Harris and Booker are the two most likely, which makes Booker the best value, IMO.

Of the people not listed, Adam Schiff seems like a good dark horse.

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52 minutes ago, cap'n grunge said:

Your list is missing Tulsi Gabbard.

I like Gabbard, and would vote for her,  but I think she has too much anti-Israel stances to be a viable candidate for a national office.

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Biden is DNC's best bet - he has the experience, he can get the financial backers and he actually has some fire and would say things to ignite people. I don't think he has many demons in his closet. he wouldn't be running for popularity like Oprah or skin color like Obama. 

Biden in 2020 scares me more than anyone else (as a conservative voter)

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Just now, Stealthycat said:

Biden is DNC's best bet - he has the experience, he can get the financial backers and he actually has some fire and would say things to ignite people. I don't think he has many demons in his closet. he wouldn't be running for popularity like Oprah or skin color like Obama. 

Biden in 2020 scares me more than anyone else (as a conservative voter)

Biden is an idiot who shouldn't scare any conservatives. He has a loveable status after his time with Obama but if he exposed himself in an election his old habits wouldn't play well. And let's be honest - none of us would be surprised if he's got some grabass issues in his past. His chance, if he ever had one, was this last election. 

It's time for Harris, Booker, or some other younger candidate. 

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5 minutes ago, Hilts said:

Biden is an idiot who shouldn't scare any conservatives. He has a loveable status after his time with Obama but if he exposed himself in an election his old habits wouldn't play well. And let's be honest - none of us would be surprised if he's got some grabass issues in his past. His chance, if he ever had one, was this last election. 

It's time for Harris, Booker, or some other younger candidate. 

Hasn't "grab ###" been deemed irrelevant in electing a POTUS?

 

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As of today I'm supporting Booker.  Will be fun to watch all of the favorites manuever the next 18-20 months knowing every action will be heavily scrutinized using the 2020 lens.  

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46 minutes ago, tommyGunZ said:

As of today I'm supporting Booker.  Will be fun to watch all of the favorites manuever the next 18-20 months knowing every action will be heavily scrutinized using the 2020 lens.  

Apropos...added to the Judiciary committee (along with Harris)

Quote

Sen. Kamala Harris (D-Ca.) and Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ) added to Senate Judiciary Committee in wake of Franken resignation/Doug Jones win. Number of black Dems on the committee goes from zero to two.

https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/950801580458151937

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1 hour ago, Jackstraw said:

Dude. Way to slip that little gem in there.

I think its the reason Obama was elected. 

He wasn't popular like Oprah. he wasn't well financed like Hillary. He hadn't much political experience. What did he bring to the table? 

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On 1/8/2018 at 8:23 AM, knowledge dropper said:

Biden at 10/1 is free money. 

If we knew he was going to run.  There is at least a multiplier of 2 in there for the 50% chance whether he wants to run or not.

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1 hour ago, Stealthycat said:

I think its the reason Obama was elected. 

He wasn't popular like Oprah. he wasn't well financed like Hillary. He hadn't much political experience. What did he bring to the table? 

oof

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3 hours ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

How did the Jones win give the Dems another seat on the judiciary committee?  Anyone know?

Sessions was previously on the Judiciary committee

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2 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

I think its the reason Obama was elected. 

He wasn't popular like Oprah. he wasn't well financed like Hillary. He hadn't much political experience. What did he bring to the table? 

Wow. If I have to build the case for O after eight years we are too far apart to even mess with it. He won because he was black. Ooookay. 

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2 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

I think its the reason Obama was elected. 

He wasn't popular like Oprah. he wasn't well financed like Hillary. He hadn't much political experience. What did he bring to the table? 

Graduated from Columbia University

Graduated from Harvard Law School

Taught constitutional law at University of Chicago Law School

Served 3 terms in the Illinois Senate

Served one term in the US Senate

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12 minutes ago, Misfit said:

Graduated from Columbia University

Graduated from Harvard Law School

Taught constitutional law at University of Chicago Law School

Served 3 terms in the Illinois Senate

Served one term in the US Senate

those are weak credentials compared to other candidates though

Hillary had the credentials too - and others had MORE credentials

 

anyway, ya'll think what you want - it was a big deal that a 1/2 black was running for President, it was a big deal a rich old white woman like Hillary was. It was a big deal a political outsider like Trump was. Don't be ashamed of it - you can own it and that's ok you know. Society celebrates when things like this happen - when there is a first woman this or black that or gay this or white that ........... 

 

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No love for Tim Kaine? Too intellectual? Too self-righteous and anxious in the VP debate? He has military family and speaks Spanish. Midwestern roots.

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4 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

No love for Tim Kaine? Too intellectual? Too self-righteous and anxious in the VP debate? He has military family and speaks Spanish. Midwestern roots.

Too bland. He was the VP candidate and people remember him like a fart in the wind.

Candidates need more than just charm, but having likeability is a huge factor in getting elected. Kaine has the charm of beige.

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3 minutes ago, SoBeDad said:

No love for Tim Kaine? Too intellectual? Too self-righteous and anxious in the VP debate? He has military family and speaks Spanish. Midwestern roots.

Tim Kaine could put a brothel full of Viagra addicts to sleep.

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2 hours ago, tommyGunZ said:

Sessions was previously on the Judiciary committee

Seats on committees are allocated by party.  When Sessions left he would have been replaced by a Republican I would think.

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2 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

those are weak credentials compared to other candidates though

Hillary had the credentials too - and others had MORE credentials

 

anyway, ya'll think what you want - it was a big deal that a 1/2 black was running for President, it was a big deal a rich old white woman like Hillary was. It was a big deal a political outsider like Trump was. Don't be ashamed of it - you can own it and that's ok you know. Society celebrates when things like this happen - when there is a first woman this or black that or gay this or white that ........... 

 

Who?

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3 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

those are weak credentials compared to other candidates though

Hillary had the credentials too - and others had MORE credentials

 

anyway, ya'll think what you want - it was a big deal that a 1/2 black was running for President, it was a big deal a rich old white woman like Hillary was. It was a big deal a political outsider like Trump was. Don't be ashamed of it - you can own it and that's ok you know. Society celebrates when things like this happen - when there is a first woman this or black that or gay this or white that ........... 

 

But he backed that with very good debate performances etc. It was evident the guy was prepared for the job the way he held up in the crucible of the election. I don’t discount a black candidate was significant but given the Trump phenomena don’t you think he had significant headwinds because of race with a good portion of the country? You act like his race was only a benefit and apparently more important than the sum total of all his other attributes. Come on man he kind of had it going on. 

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6 hours ago, Stealthycat said:

I think its the reason Obama was elected. 

He wasn't popular like Oprah. he wasn't well financed like Hillary. He hadn't much political experience. What did he bring to the table? 

Amazing.  Wow.

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2 hours ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

Seats on committees are allocated by party.  When Sessions left he would have been replaced by a Republican I would think.

For some reason Judiciary and Banking seem to adjust the membership to get closer to the actual percentages in the Senate as a whole.  We guess 3% fell within th he bounds of acceptability, but 4% didn’t.

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On 1/8/2018 at 2:46 PM, McJose said:

She's pretty sharp. 

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What are the primaries going to be like?  Are they going to be battling or are they going to be presenting their cases without they typical argumentative posturing?  Which do you think is better for their chances?

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5 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Michael Avenatti is saying that if someone doesn't step forward that he thinks has a real chance to beat Trump, then he will run to save us all.

The AvenattiBros will be all chest out and ####.

 

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Bumping this thread.  Is there a clear frontrunner yet?

Edited by bigbottom

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