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Dinsy Ejotuz

2020 Democratic Primaries

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Corey Booker apparently made a great impression in Iowa this weekend.

But no one out front yet I don't think.  May be ~18 months before we know.

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5 minutes ago, Mystery Achiever said:

Has anyone beside Avenatti admitted to seriously considering a run?

Congressman Delaney from Maryland announced he was running like a year ago and has been campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire.

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On 1/9/2018 at 3:43 PM, Stealthycat said:

I think its the reason Obama was elected. 

He wasn't popular like Oprah. he wasn't well financed like Hillary. He hadn't much political experience. What did he bring to the table? 

Hope and change...and libertarian/independant voters like me.  Although I disagreed with many of his stances, I thought he was the most honest candidate and not bought and paid for by anyone else.  That's also why I could never have voted for Trump or Hillary this last cycle.

To support your statement though, I was on the fence and thought him being the first black president was a good thing for this country so I did add a check mark on his side for being black.  

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I think Booker and Harris have to be considered the favorites at this point. But it's still early enough to go to anyone. 

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Re: Bloomberg, would love to see the boastful Trump run against an opponent worth 10 times more than he is.

Edited by bigbottom

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1 minute ago, bigbottom said:

Re: Bloomberg, would love to see the boastful Trump run against an opponent worth 10 times more than he is.

I can see that, but to me it would be sorta depressing to see two New York billionaires be the major party candidates.  I do like Bloomberg though and would obviously vote for him (enthusiastically) if that were the general election matchup.

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1 minute ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I can see that, but to me it would be sorta depressing to see two New York billionaires be the major party candidates.  I do like Bloomberg though and would obviously vote for him (enthusiastically) if that were the general election matchup.

Yeah, I get where you're coming from.  As a side note, Bloomberg scored a 5 (best score) on the philanthropy scale for the Forbes 400 list, while Trump scored a 1 (worst score).

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21 hours ago, bigbottom said:

Bumping this thread.  Is there a clear frontrunner yet?

Not really. I think this has the potential to be a really strong (but big and messy) field.

Biden was polling well a few months back (this early, a lot of that is name recognition IMO) and I think he’s a good bet to run. Personally, I think that would be a terrible look for the Dems in the wake of Kavanaugh/MeToo.

Bernie polls as the most popular politician in America right now and would get a good amount of support if he threw his hat in the ring again. Warren has hinted at a 2020 run and would court a lot of the Bernie crowd.

Harris, Booker, and Klobuchar all raised their profiles with the recent hearings, and also from the senate, I think Gillibrand may be leaning towards a run. 

Then you have the oddballs - Avenatti, Bloomberg, Howard Schultz, etc. 

Overall, a lot of names and a lot of candidates who would dig into each other’s main constituencies - so it’s hard to tell. FWIW, 538 did a “Dem nominee draft” recently and their top 4 were Warren, Harris, Gillibrand, and Biden.

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Warren is definitely going to run; she's just waiting until after she's safely re-elected to make the announcement.

I think she has to be considered the front-runner at this point. I'm not saying she's going to win, or that I support her (I'm genuinely undecided, mostly because I think it's way too early). I'm saying she's a well-known name who is being very aggressive about rolling out policy proposals and is clearly making an effort to until the party rather than win a factional war (coughBernie). 

I think Biden is riding on name recognition and Bernie will be seen as having had his shot, especially considering that he and Warren draw from the same base of support.

Harris is intriguing and, if she runs a strong campaign, could do to Warren what Obama did to Hillary in '08. But that's the point -- she could knock off Warren as the front-runner.

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1 hour ago, zftcg said:

Warren is definitely going to run; she's just waiting until after she's safely re-elected to make the announcement.

I think she has to be considered the front-runner at this point. I'm not saying she's going to win, or that I support her (I'm genuinely undecided, mostly because I think it's way too early). I'm saying she's a well-known name who is being very aggressive about rolling out policy proposals and is clearly making an effort to until the party rather than win a factional war (coughBernie). 

I think Biden is riding on name recognition and Bernie will be seen as having had his shot, especially considering that he and Warren draw from the same base of support.

Harris is intriguing and, if she runs a strong campaign, could do to Warren what Obama did to Hillary in '08. But that's the point -- she could knock off Warren as the front-runner.

I may be way off on this, but Warren seems to me to be the most likely candidate to be vulnerable to the anti-Hillary sentiment.

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I don't see how Bernie, if he decides to run, isn't the instant front runner. He will have the money,  he certainly now has the name recognition and more than one Trump voter has said they would have rather voted for Bernie. I think Warren hiring Hillary people will hurt her with Progressives. I think Biden is damaged by what happened to Anita Hill. Booker is a phony. Harris doesn't really have the national stature. And I don't think Bloomberg makes the rust belt or coal country excited. I want no part of him personally way too nanny state.

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2 minutes ago, NCCommish said:

I don't see how Bernie, if he decides to run, isn't the instant front runner. He will have the money,  he certainly now has the name recognition and more than one Trump voter has said they would have rather voted for Bernie. I think Warren hiring Hillary people will hurt her with Progressives. I think Biden is damaged by what happened to Anita Hill. Booker is a phony. Harris doesn't really have the national stature. And I don't think Bloomberg makes the rust belt or coal country excited. I want no part of him personally way too nanny state.

Harris is getting the national stature.  I think Bernie would be the front runner, Warren would be a strong contender, but I think Harris would go Obama on everyone if she ran.  Obviously we're a year out from the real campaign, but she's on his trajectory.

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And the optics of a black female prosecutor who doesn't believe in the death penalty running against Trump would be pretty stark.

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Bernie has the same problem he had in 2016, magnified because he’s much better known: he energizes the base and young people, but he scares away independents and moderates. I don’t want to argue whether or not the latter is fair or unfair; for the sake of this discussion, let’s agree it’s unfair, and that Bernie’s ideas, if explained properly, would be popular among independents, moderates, and perhaps even some conservatives. It doesn’t matter because they won’t be explained properly and the reality is I think he will have a difficult time winning. 

That doesn’t mean a progressive can’t be our next President. But it’s going to probably have to be somebody younger who presents himself or herself as less of an ideologue. If a progressive is what you want, I think Harris is your best bet. 

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8 minutes ago, timschochet said:

Bernie has the same problem he had in 2016, magnified because he’s much better known: he energizes the base and young people, but he scares away independents and moderates. I don’t want to argue whether or not the latter is fair or unfair; for the sake of this discussion, let’s agree it’s unfair, and that Bernie’s ideas, if explained properly, would be popular among independents, moderates, and perhaps even some conservatives. It doesn’t matter because they won’t be explained properly and the reality is I think he will have a difficult time winning. 

That doesn’t mean a progressive can’t be our next President. But it’s going to probably have to be somebody younger who presents himself or herself as less of an ideologue. If a progressive is what you want, I think Harris is your best bet. 

Bernie won independents at higher levels than he did Democrats last time so not sure where you get that. Further his policy prescriptions are now largely supported by majorities some of them even on the Republican side. Including Medicare fo All. That puts him squarely in the mainstream. You need to check your conclusion GB.

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1 minute ago, NCCommish said:

Bernie won independents at higher levels than he did Democrats last time so not sure where you get that. Further his policy prescriptions are now largely supported by majorities some of them even on the Republican side. Including Medicare fo All. That puts him squarely in the mainstream. You need to check your conclusion GB.

I’m always happy to do that. 

I may be influenced because I live in Orange County. I have run into a lot of conservatives lately who tell me that they are disgusted by Donald Trump and will happily vote for a Democrat next time around, so long as it’s a “regular” Democrat and “not someone off of the deep end like Bernie”. Their words, not mine. 

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Just now, timschochet said:

I’m always happy to do that. 

I may be influenced because I live in Orange County. I have run into a lot of conservatives lately who tell me that they are disgusted by Donald Trump and will happily vote for a Democrat next time around, so long as it’s a “regular” Democrat and “not someone off of the deep end like Bernie”. Their words, not mine. 

Orange County Republicans are bat [redacted] crazy.  I think we can agree on that.  Actually, just replace "Republicans" with "residents."

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1 minute ago, timschochet said:

I’m always happy to do that. 

I may be influenced because I live in Orange County. I have run into a lot of conservatives lately who tell me that they are disgusted by Donald Trump and will happily vote for a Democrat next time around, so long as it’s a “regular” Democrat and “not someone off of the deep end like Bernie”. Their words, not mine. 

I'd suggest the people you are talking g to are on the right. Polling tells us Bernie isn't off the deep end or even close to it.

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1 minute ago, NCCommish said:

 Polling tells us Bernie isn't off the deep end or even close to it.

Polling also told us, right after Obamacare was passed, that a majority of Americans agreed with each of its ideas separately- but when you called it “Obamacare” a lot of them hated it. 

I fear that this is the problem with Bernie and democratic socialism. Republicans have successfully demonized the brand. 

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I voted for Bernie in the 2016 primary, but I doubt if I'd vote for him this time around.  I really want some sort of technocrat type, not sure who is running that fits that description.

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41 minutes ago, timschochet said:

That doesn’t mean a progressive can’t be our next President. But it’s going to probably have to be somebody younger who presents himself or herself as less of an ideologue. If a progressive is what you want, I think Harris is your best bet. 

You (and others) keep saying this, and it's simply wrong. People unite and energize over ideas, not age.

Edited by ShamrockPride
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1 hour ago, timschochet said:

Polling also told us, right after Obamacare was passed, that a majority of Americans agreed with each of its ideas separately- but when you called it “Obamacare” a lot of them hated it. 

I fear that this is the problem with Bernie and democratic socialism. Republicans have successfully demonized the brand. 

Obamacare was recognized for the giveaway to the insurance companies that it was. Medicare for all get something near 80% of Democratic support and 52% of Republicans support it. Just to name one policy idea this idea that Americans hate socialism is silly they love Medicare they love social security the two biggest socialistic programs we have in America all about messaging.

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48 minutes ago, fatguyinalittlecoat said:

I voted for Bernie in the 2016 primary, but I doubt if I'd vote for him this time around.  I really want some sort of technocrat type, not sure who is running that fits that description.

I want a passionate fighter and I think the American public does too we've had enough of the technocrats there why we are where we are now they're the reason Trump a rose because they're all about neoliberalism and while the average American may not label it that they darn sure no it hasn't made their lives better it's presented a situation where their children's lives maybe worse than theirs it's time for some passion and Big Ideas.

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2 hours ago, timschochet said:

I’m always happy to do that. 

I may be influenced because I live in Orange County. I have run into a lot of conservatives lately who tell me that they are disgusted by Donald Trump and will happily vote for a Democrat next time around, so long as it’s a “regular” Democrat and “not someone off of the deep end like Bernie”. Their words, not mine. 

Republicans will agree to vote for any Democrat until they're actually faced with the decision. Then they'll find some bull#### excuse to back Trump, saying something like "Well I WOULD have voted for the DNC if only they had nominated someone normal. Instead they voted for the (socialist/lunatic/inexperienced/whatever) so I have no choice but to reluctantly back Trump."

Screw nominating someone based off who Trump supporters might like or dislike. They'll hate whoever it is. They've proven to be utterly unqualified in any voting related matters. To hell with any of their opinions. 

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21 hours ago, timschochet said:

I’m always happy to do that. 

I may be influenced because I live in Orange County. I have run into a lot of conservatives lately who tell me that they are disgusted by Donald Trump and will happily vote for a Democrat next time around, so long as it’s a “regular” Democrat and “not someone off of the deep end like Bernie”. Their words, not mine. 

Because they're Republican light

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Amy Klobuchar please. Need some Minnesota Nice level-headedness in the oval office to clean up after the disgrace of 2017-2020.

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The person I'm most impressed with over the last year is Beto.  If he upsets Cruz then I could definitely see him running and if he runs he goes way up the list for me.  If he loses (which I expect) then I feel like he needs to find a place to land and season himself.  He has the temperament and levelheadedness that I would look for in any election cycle but definitely this one. 

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1 hour ago, AAABatteries said:

The person I'm most impressed with over the last year is Beto.  If he upsets Cruz then I could definitely see him running and if he runs he goes way up the list for me.  If he loses (which I expect) then I feel like he needs to find a place to land and season himself.  He has the temperament and levelheadedness that I would look for in any election cycle but definitely this one. 

Well, he's already a member of the House of Representatives.  Assuming the Dems take control of the House, he may be able to get some more prominent committee appointments to help boost his profile.

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After looking at Beto's voting record and his industry ties I wouldn't support him for a presidential run. He is really not particularly progressive and when you analyze his voting record it is problematic at best.

The vast overwhelming percentage of his donations are large donations and the majority of those come from people within the telecom industry. He has raised a lot of money in large donations. He owes people who are unlikely to have my best interests at heart.

So problematic votes and problematic money. Yeah beating Cruz would be fun. And of course he is better than Cruz as a human being. But that is a really low bar and doesn't get him anywhere near presidential material for me.

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13 minutes ago, NCCommish said:

After looking at Beto's voting record and his industry ties I wouldn't support him for a presidential run. He is really not particularly progressive and when you analyze his voting record it is problematic at best.

The vast overwhelming percentage of his donations are large donations and the majority of those come from people within the telecom industry. He has raised a lot of money in large donations. He owes people who are unlikely to have my best interests at heart.

So problematic votes and problematic money. Yeah beating Cruz would be fun. And of course he is better than Cruz as a human being. But that is a really low bar and doesn't get him anywhere near presidential material for me.

I'm lazy. Can you provide a reputable link to back this up?

You seem like a guy who is not fond of his own nose.

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10 minutes ago, Mister CIA said:

I'm lazy. Can you provide a reputable link to back this up?

You seem like a guy who is not fond of his own nose.

Actually there are many things I am fond of including my nose. And if I were in Texas I'd vote Beto over Ted of course. Personally I don't think Beto is going to win. He has never led in a single poll. Not one. He is currently down by 7-9 points depending on which poll you go by. But still I'd vote for him over Ted. As for a link to fundraising I'd like to wait until we have the specifics on the record 38 million he raised on the last 3 months so that we can have a clearer picture of this entire cycle. My comments were drawn from his fundraising as a Congressman.

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22 hours ago, Mister CIA said:

I'm lazy. Can you provide a reputable link to back this up?

You seem like a guy who is not fond of his own nose.

He's right... at least about the large contributions part, not sure about who they are specifically.  Here's a link.  Scroll down to the "Source of Funds (Campaign Committee), 2017 - 2018" portion. 

 

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From me in redundant thread:

There are important policy agenda and leadership issues at hand for Democrats looking to take a bite out of grime. Who is best suited to lead Team Blue to maximize their midterm momentum? How much investigating is too much? Pre-existing conditions and taxes were popular messages for the midterms; are those the cornerstones of a successful 2020 platform? Just how do you take down an energized Trump base? Will the DNC give a candidate mandate, or will they take their thumb off the scale in a concession to their 2016's failure of a bid?

And for Republicans it looks like a time of commitment. Do you give your full support to the Donald and ride or die with him? Or do you start distancing yourself as a hedge to future elections? Are the flipped seats in 2018 a sign of the times or an anomaly? Is there really a problem in the suburban demographic, and how do you rekindle the red? Are there demographics being disenfranchised by Democrats that are prime for a flipping in 2020?

I'm going full PSF for the next two years. This is probably a mistake.

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Hopefully Bobby O`Rourke will at least throw his hat in the ring. Need a good Irishman in office.

Edited by Da Guru

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59 minutes ago, hagmania said:

From me in redundant thread:

There are important policy agenda and leadership issues at hand for Democrats looking to take a bite out of grime. Who is best suited to lead Team Blue to maximize their midterm momentum? How much investigating is too much? Pre-existing conditions and taxes were popular messages for the midterms; are those the cornerstones of a successful 2020 platform? Just how do you take down an energized Trump base? Will the DNC give a candidate mandate, or will they take their thumb off the scale in a concession to their 2016's failure of a bid?

And for Republicans it looks like a time of commitment. Do you give your full support to the Donald and ride or die with him? Or do you start distancing yourself as a hedge to future elections? Are the flipped seats in 2018 a sign of the times or an anomaly? Is there really a problem in the suburban demographic, and how do you rekindle the red? Are there demographics being disenfranchised by Democrats that are prime for a flipping in 2020?

I'm going full PSF for the next two years. This is probably a mistake.

Not sure the base matters. With the base alone he loses. Focus on all those areas that turned out huge this cycle to flip the house. Without women and the suburbs this ends really badly for him

The trick is not to let him drive the narrative away from the issues. If they stay on message and focus on issues that will essentially mute him. Did you hear him trying to answer the most basic of questions in that press conference today?  That was embarrassing. 

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On 10/18/2018 at 2:50 PM, Mystery Achiever said:

Julian Castro likely to run
“I want to be straightforward with folks,” said on Yahoo Finance’s “Market Movers” Wednesday. “I’m seriously considering it.”
Castro said that he will make a “final decision” after the Nov. 6 elections.

I stood next to that dude at an event once. I swear, he's 5'5" if he's an inch. And he looks like he's twelve (even Obama famously trolled him over that). I know we overemphasize the trivial when it comes to presidential politics, but I looked him up and down and said, "There is no freakin' way the American people are ever making that guy Commander in Chief."

Also worth pointing out that Castro had plenty of opportunity to do what Beto just attempted, yet never even tried, presumably because he knew he'd get killed.

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Biden has to be licking his chops at the size of the Democratic field.  As the most moderate and arguably the most well-known candidate he could easily do what Trump did in 2016 -- winning 25-30% of the early races in a 15-way field and then pile up enough of a lead before the field winnows that he's tough to catch.

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1 hour ago, Dinsy Ejotuz said:

Biden has to be licking his chops at the size of the Democratic field.  As the most moderate and arguably the most well-known candidate he could easily do what Trump did in 2016 -- winning 25-30% of the early races in a 15-way field and then pile up enough of a lead before the field winnows that he's tough to catch.

This is a good point that I hadn't really considered. 

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Bernie has no chance in the primary, IMO. He was beaten pretty easily by Hillary. He’d lose by much more to a good candidate. He’d get blown out by Harris, Booker, Klobuchar, O’Rourke ... all of whom are much better candidates than Hillary was.

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Interesting poll from Move On.  Plenty of fuel for the idea that Sanders was a product of a two-person race vs an unpopular candidate in 2016.  ETA -- feels like there's actually a cleanish break around 1% in terms of legitimate candidates:

Someone Else / Don’t Know 17.89%
Beto O’Rourke 15.60%
Joe Biden 14.95%
Bernie Sanders 13.15%
Kamala Harris 10.02%
Elizabeth Warren 6.42%
Sherrod Brown 2.92%
Amy Klobuchar 2.75%
Michael Bloomberg 2.71%
Cory Booker 2.63%
Joseph Kennedy III 1.90%
Stacey Abrams 1.16%
Kirsten Gillibrand 1.09%
Tulsi Gabbard 0.78%
John Hickenlooper 0.71%
Eric Holder 0.59%
Eric Swalwell 0.54%
Julián Castro 0.48%
Jeff Merkley 0.42%
Jay Inslee 0.38%
Andrew Gillum 0.36%
Mitch Landrieu 0.35%
Chris Murphy 0.33%
Tom Steyer 0.28%
Marianne Williamson 0.26%
Deval Patrick 0.24%
Eric Garcetti 0.20%
Richard Ojeda 0.18%
Steve Bullock 0.17%
Pete Buttigieg 0.12%
John Delaney 0.11%
Bill de Blasio 0.10%
Howard Schultz 0.10%
Terry McAuliffe 0.10%

Edited by Dinsy Ejotuz

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