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***OFFICIAL: Vikings-Saints Playoff Thread*** (1 Viewer)

Not that I'm looking ahead but if the Falcons managed to get past Philly I'm not sure who I would want to play.  Minny D > Saints D but Brees > Keenum.  Both would be on the road.  I hate the idea of playing a rival in the NFCCG so I will probably root for Minny no matter what the Falcons do Saturday.  Ultimately the NFL is still a QB league so it won't surprise me at all if the final 4 is Brady, Ben, Brees and Ryan.

 
@Doug B @SproutDaddy @Biabreakable @Hov34 @SaintsInDome2006 and others. 

09 rematch, without the dirtiness. 

Prediction - 27-17 Vikes. 
I got nothin' but love, man, let's not do that.

Thanks for starting the game thread, good job.

As for predictions my brain and my heart are at war. Honestly if I was an objective third party gambler in Montana I'd say the Vikes by something like 26-23 or 29-24. My heart, gut and instinct knowing the Saints tell me other factors such as QB, run game, defense and Saints DB play have changed a lot since Week 1. However rationally I think the biggest factor is homefield.

But even so - the Saints are fine in a dome, they are built for it. We'll see how this turns out but for the thousandth time IMO MIN made a mistake by going to a dome in the 70s. The Saints would be dead to rights going into Minnesota weather right now, they would have no chance. As it stands, they're a dome team built for dome speed and stretching the field. Seattle they've hated playing at, despite strong efforts in the playoffs. Playing in a dome? Oh yeah we'll take our chances thank you very much.

 
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Please rank the QBs remaining in the playoffs by conference, and then say who you think will be in the AFCC game. Then do the NFCC.

I'll wait.

 
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I will say Atlanta catches a break playing Foles but Eagles D is really good.  Brees has shown that he can overcome playing a good D and has good RBs - the big question to me is the Minny offense.  If they can keep pace that should be a good one.  I expect the Philly vs. Atl game to be ugly and the 2 AFC games to be blowouts.  This game should be the best of the weekend I think.

 
As for predictions my brain and my heart are at war. Honestly if I was an objective third party gambler in Montana I'd say the Vikes by something like 26-23 or 29-24. My heart, gut and instinct knowing the Saints tell me other factors such as QB, run game, defense and Saints DB play have changed a lot since Week 1. However rationally I think the biggest factor is homefield.

But even so - the Saints are fine in a dome, they are built for it.
This is where I'm at. I think the game is a toss-up. Not seeing anything that would indicate a runaway by either squad.

I did find it interesting in another SP thread that some feel like the Saints are getting all the hype and that the Vikings are generally considered the underdog by the sports media. I think the early, easy storylines are being given too much credence -- the crystal ball here is especially hazy, but a lot of media folks already have a lot of respect for Drew Brees when it comes to formulating top-of-the-head talking points.

That's not the same, IMHO, as discounting the Vikings. I think the savvier prognosticators well recognize how accomplished the Vikings' defense really has been this season and are expecting a dogfight.

 
It's going to be the best game of the week IMO.  The Vikings defense is historically good.  The number 1 defense in both yards and points allowed this season and they're holding teams to 25% conversion rate on 3rd downs.  This all despite being only 20th in the league in turnovers.  This defense doesn't need big plays to stop high octane offenses.  They've been doing it all year long.

On the flip side, Brees is the most experienced QB in the NFC playoffs.  You can't ever really count him out and he will find a way to manufacture some offense for NO.  Add in NO's improved defense and this will likely be a tight contest.  Much tighter than week 1 was anyway.

I still give the advantage to the Vikings, but mostly because they get to play at home.

 
encaitar said:
On the flip side, Brees is the most experienced QB in the NFC playoffs.  You can't ever really count him out and he will find a way to manufacture some offense for NO. 
You have to realize the magic he's pulle out his rear end in the past, even in losing causes. Breakaway long touchdowns in the last two minutes of the SF game in 2011. The Seattle losses in 2010 and 2014 were just that losses but he had his team in position to win, the first time basically the defense threw up all over itself and in 2014 Brees scored two TDs and two 2-point conversions to keep things tight against one of the best SB era defenses. Since the Super Bowl the Saints have had some rotten luck in visiting venues against some really tough defenses - I have no idea how being in a dome in Minny will measure up vs being at Seattle, SF, Seattle.

 
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You have to realize the magic he's pulle out his rear end in the past, even in losing causes. Breakaway long touchdowns in the last two minutes of the SF game in 2011. The Seattle losses in 2010 and 2014 were just that losses but he had his team in position to win, the first time basically the defense threw up all over itself and in 2014 Brees scored two TDs and two 2-point conversions to keep things tight against one of the best SB era defenses. Since the Super Bowl the Saints have had some rotten luck in visiting venues against some really tough defenses - I have no idea how being in a dome in Minny will measure up vs being at Seattle, SF, Seattle.
It will be louder.  This Viking D is on the same level as Seattle's during their heyday.

I'm not overconfident about the game, but I expect Min to win.

 
I spoke up in SP the other day and I'm sticking by my pick. I think quarterback play is so huge that the Saints win a narrow one on the road, but importantly, as SID points out, in a dome.  

I didn't know exactly how good the Minnesota defense was. That is impressive.  

 
I expect it to be a close game. Just been having some fun with Saints fans with some exaggeration as a part of that.

I still expect the Vikings to win though and to be more effective running the ball than the Saints will be.

Brees is one of the best QBs of my lifetime. I saw him and Brady as being such even before Brady got Moss. It has turned out to be true. That said the Vikings have a very special collection of talent in the secondary and I don't expect them to move the ball well at all.

If the Vikings (Case Keenum) turn over the ball is the only way I see the Vikings lose. But it will be a good game regardless and close enough that either team has a chance.

If the Vikings get their running game going well though then I think the Vikings will win pretty comfortably. We'll see soon enough how good the Saints defense actually is, honestly I think a lot of their success on defense has been smoke and mirrors supported by them running the ball so well and turnovers. I don't see their defense being as good as it may appear by numbers.

Hoping the Vikings can completely stifle the Saints offense, but being realistic, Brees is likely to execute some big plays regardless because he is that good. Just hopefully not many and they come in chase mode.

The Vikings offense could totally face plant, that would be my main concern as far as the outcome of the game. I definitely think the Vikings defense is good enough to keep the Saints offense in check. The offense needs to control the ball enough though for the Vikings to win. Thats my main question mark, and not because I think the Saints defense is that good, but because the Vikings offense is capable of being that bad.

 
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Hoping the Vikings can completely stifle the Saints offense, but being realistic, Brees is likely to execute some big plays regardless because he is that good.
I think we're going to see a lot of RB screens. The Panthers fully loaded the box and shut that down but it's a natural antidote to what the Vikings do. 

And obvious statement of the week here... no or almost no turnovers is key for the Saints.

 
I think we're going to see a lot of RB screens. The Panthers fully loaded the box and shut that down but it's a natural antidote to what the Vikings do. 

And obvious statement of the week here... no or almost no turnovers is key for the Saints.
The Vikings have been shutting down the screen game for over two years now.

It does not work against them.

Need to come up with something other than that.

 
I think we're going to see a lot of RB screens. The Panthers fully loaded the box and shut that down but it's a natural antidote to what the Vikings do. 

And obvious statement of the week here... no or almost no turnovers is key for the Saints.
Like Bia said, this is a nonstarter, at least based on how they've played so far this season.  They are I believe, the best defense in the league against RB's catching the ball.

I'm admittedly a Viking homer but I wonder if NFL fans and media truly appreciate how good this defense is.

 
I've seen some talking heads compare this defense to that of the Seahawks a few years back that NO seemed to always draw in the playoffs.  Brees didn't seem to have any problems moving the ball on that defense.  NO just didn't have any defense then.  I guess we'll see on Sunday.

And I don't think you're going to find any Saints fan that will discredit Minny's defense.

 
I don't feel too, too bad about my comment. I wasn't saying the Saints would succeed with the screen pass only that I am expecting they will lean on it or try to succeed with it. Going back and checking the stats, the Saints RBs went 12/9/74/0 in Game 1. The only Vikes opponent with that many targets was Baltimore who went 13/10/29/0. The Browns backs went 12/9/79/0. Of course not all RB targets are screens with the Saints, especially Kamara who can go downfield. I didn't mean 'antidote' in the sense that it would defeat the Vikes, only that it seems like it's a natural option for a team facing a defense that is so good defending the pass downfield. If anyone wants to make a SB Seahawks D comp that's one place especially I could see it.

 
I've seen some talking heads compare this defense to that of the Seahawks a few years back that NO seemed to always draw in the playoffs.  Brees didn't seem to have any problems moving the ball on that defense.  NO just didn't have any defense then.  I guess we'll see on Sunday.

And I don't think you're going to find any Saints fan that will discredit Minny's defense.
I'm certainly not. I think the comps to the Seahawks defense the Saints faced on the road in the 2013 playoffs is more than apt. The Vikes held 5 of their 8 home opponents to 14 points or fewer. None scored more than 2 TDs. And actually the Saints' 19 in Week 1 was the most scored at Min all year and they scored all of 1 TD.

 
Wondering if the Viking's defensive prowess is skewed by playing the Bears twice, the Packers twice without Rodgers and others, and the Bucs without Jameis Winston, not to mention the Browns.  They have some excellent players, no question, but maybe, just maybe the record book needs to be read in context.

At any rate we will know soon enough.  Here's to hoping for clean play, good health during and after, and fair and accurate ref'ing throughout.

 
The Vikings defense did stone the Rams and Falcons over the second half of the season. After the Panthers loss in Week 14, the Vikings got three bottom-feeder offenses in a row to close out the season, and held the Bengals, Packers, and Bears to a total of 17 points combined.

The Vikings defense has given up 100 yards rushing to six teams this season -- all during Minnesota road games. The most rushing yards given up at home was 97 to the Lions in a Week 4 loss. Not sure why, but the Minnesota rushing defense difference between home and road games has been stark.

Forever ago, but Drew Brees did get the third-most passing yards against the Vikings all season back in Week 1 with 284 yards. Jameis Winston (316 yds in Wk 3) and Kirk Cousins (313 yds in Wk 10) were first and second.

 
I'm certainly not. I think the comps to the Seahawks defense the Saints faced on the road in the 2013 playoffs is more than apt.
This specifically worries me, because -- let's face it -- the Saints have been poor in the Payton era against top-few defenses, especially in the playoffs. The sample size is small, but there still seems to be a pattern: the Saints' 2006,  2011, and 2013 playoff runs were all ended on the road by top-5 defenses (both yds and pts).

 
The Vikings defense did stone the Rams and Falcons over the second half of the season. After the Panthers loss in Week 14, the Vikings got three bottom-feeder offenses in a row to close out the season, and held the Bengals, Packers, and Bears to a total of 17 points combined.

The Vikings defense has given up 100 yards rushing to six teams this season -- all during Minnesota road games. The most rushing yards given up at home was 97 to the Lions in a Week 4 loss. Not sure why, but the Minnesota rushing defense difference between home and road games has been stark.

Forever ago, but Drew Brees did get the third-most passing yards against the Vikings all season back in Week 1 with 284 yards. Jameis Winston (316 yds in Wk 3) and Kirk Cousins (313 yds in Wk 10) were first and second.
I seemed to remember Winston being out against them.  Thanks for the good information to correct my faulty recollection.

 
Wondering if the Viking's defensive prowess is skewed by playing the Bears twice, the Packers twice without Rodgers and others, and the Bucs without Jameis Winston, not to mention the Browns.  They have some excellent players, no question, but maybe, just maybe the record book needs to be read in context.

At any rate we will know soon enough.  Here's to hoping for clean play, good health during and after, and fair and accurate ref'ing throughout.
Good defenses play bad teams every year, that is nothing new.  Throwing in Jameis as he's something to be scared of was pretty funny too.

 
I seemed to remember Winston being out against them.  Thanks for the good information to correct my faulty recollection.
The passing yards I gave were actually "team defense passing yards allowed" yards, which deducts sack yardage. So the yards passing I gave are actually a little higher if looking at the individual QB stats  -- e.g. Brees has 291 yds passing in Wk 1, while the Vikings gave up 284 yds passing after deducting 7 yards lost to sacks.

Doesn't change the story, but wanted to point it out in case someone was looking at stats.

 
The Vikings defense did stone the Rams and Falcons over the second half of the season. After the Panthers loss in Week 14, the Vikings got three bottom-feeder offenses in a row to close out the season, and held the Bengals, Packers, and Bears to a total of 17 points combined.


10 points.  One of those TDs was a Punt return.  (and the other was off of a Bridgewater Int. on his 2nd play of the year that set the Bengals up on the 25 yard line or so in garbage time)

 
Just to follow up on the Vikings' Defense at home.  In 8 games at home they have given up an average of 11.6 points.

Over the last 5 home games they have given up just 8.6 per game.

 
Hov34 said:
Just to follow up on the Vikings' Defense at home.  In 8 games at home they have given up an average of 11.6 points.

Over the last 5 home games they have given up just 8.6 per game.
Impressive numbers no doubt.  They do have some impressive talent on that side of the ball.

 
I'm assuming Rhodes blankets M. Thomas.  Any chance Thomas get's the better of it?  Will be fun to watch.

 
Hov34 said:
Just to follow up on the Vikings' Defense at home.  In 8 games at home they have given up an average of 11.6 points.

Over the last 5 home games they have given up just 8.6 per game.
Let's try to give some context in terms of what to really expect.

The Saints scored the most all year, 19, vs the Vikings at Min. 1 TD, really almost proves the point. But they had 5 scoring drives altogether.

The 5 (H) opponents are a mash of poor offenses by and large - but you have to give big credit to holding the Rams to 7 points in week 11.

 
I think this is the NFC title game. My instinct says go with the home team, but I think Brees comes in and throws for 350 + again. Saints 27 Vikings 17

 
Ditkaless Wonders said:
Wondering if the Viking's defensive prowess is skewed by playing the Bears twice, the Packers twice without Rodgers and others, and the Bucs without Jameis Winston, not to mention the Browns.  They have some excellent players, no question, but maybe, just maybe the record book needs to be read in context.

At any rate we will know soon enough.  Here's to hoping for clean play, good health during and after, and fair and accurate ref'ing throughout.
I keep trying to find flaws with the Vikes record too, but they almost went undefeated against the entire NFC South in the regular season. They were clearly the best team in the North and South. I don't think this is a historically great D, but they are the top ranked D this year and they have homefield. 

 
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I keep trying to find flaws with the Vikes record too, but they went undefeated against the entire NFC South in the regular season. They were clearly the best team in the North and South. I don't think this is a historically great D, but they are the top ranked D this year and they have homefield. 
They lost at Carolina. 

 
I can see ginn getting the best of trae waynes a couple times in this upcoming game. 
Doubt it.

Waynes has been playing terrific for the second half of the season. QBs have started going after Rhodes again recently because Waynes has been playing so well (and Rhodes has been a bit gimpy).

 
Ditkaless Wonders said:
I seemed to remember Winston being out against them.  Thanks for the good information to correct my faulty recollection.
Doug Martin was out that game and I think Tampa was missing LBers as well (helping Keenum).

They shut down Evans and company though. Evans was having a hissy fit on the sidelines out of frustration.

As it turns out Martin wasn't very good this year, but at the time I thought that was a factor. Martin did have one of his best games against the Vikings in his rookie year I believe it was.

 
yes forgot about that one. The Jonathan Stewart fountain of youth game.
Stewarts big run was a defensive error on the Vikings part.

I think Carolina lined up with an unbalanced line and two of the LBs played outside gaps. They messed up on the play.

They made a few errors in the game. Blown coverage on Funchess for his TD and the missed tackle on Cam Newtons run towards the end of it.

 
Doubt it.

Waynes has been playing terrific for the second half of the season. QBs have started going after Rhodes again recently because Waynes has been playing so well (and Rhodes has been a bit gimpy).
You’re right. Plus the Michael Thomas and Brees connection has been really good on the short stuff this year. It’ll be interesting to see(no horse in this race)

 
I don't feel too, too bad about my comment. I wasn't saying the Saints would succeed with the screen pass only that I am expecting they will lean on it or try to succeed with it. Going back and checking the stats, the Saints RBs went 12/9/74/0 in Game 1. The only Vikes opponent with that many targets was Baltimore who went 13/10/29/0. The Browns backs went 12/9/79/0. Of course not all RB targets are screens with the Saints, especially Kamara who can go downfield. I didn't mean 'antidote' in the sense that it would defeat the Vikes, only that it seems like it's a natural option for a team facing a defense that is so good defending the pass downfield. If anyone wants to make a SB Seahawks D comp that's one place especially I could see it.
Its been so long since that game I didn't really remember what happened.

Looking back at the numbers, some of the best receiving stats for RBs against the Vikings in awhile, which is credit to the Saints who have long been a very good screen team and good at getting the RBs involved in the passing game in general.

It was mostly Ingram who had 5 targets 5 receptions 54 yards. Tied with Fleener for most receiving yards in the game.

The Saints only had 71 passing yards in the first half. 16 runs to 14 pass attempts. They were trying to get Peterson going but it wasn't happening. To Paytons credit, he didn't stick with that long. They ran with Ingram 6 times, Peterson 4 times and Kamara 4 times. None of them were particularly effective, From what I recall Ingram looked the best of the 3 but according to the numbers Peterson had 3.5 ypc on his 4 runs, Ingram 2.8 and Kamara 2.2

Ingram had 1 reception for 18 yards in the first half

The Vikings had 197 passing yards in the first half. 2 TD with Diggs and Thielen had 85 yards already by then.

200 some yards passing in the second half by the Saints when the Vikings already had a pretty strong lead. 36 of Ingrams receiving yards in the 2nd half when the Vikings were likely playing some form of prevent, letting them do that then. Kind of a theme of the defense in a lot of games this year where they would give up yardage and scores at the end of games when it didn't really matter.

The Saints did not score their only TD until the last drive with only 4 minutes left in the game.

But as Saints fans have said several times already, that was week one and a lot of things have changed since then.

For the Vikings Bradford and then Cook got injured and have been out most of the year. Both had very good games against the Saints in week one. Both teams still kind of finding themselves in this game, it being the first game of the season. The Saints defense obviously got a lot better since then, Bradford had a nearly perfect game week one and Cook had 127 rushing yards on 22 carries. Neither will be playing this Sunday.

Diggs and Thielen will though.  :cool:  Maybe the Saints can cover them a bit better this time?

Murray and McKinnon are not as good as Cook. But the offensive line of the Vikings has been playing well most of the year. Not so well against Carolina though with center Elflien out and those beastly defensive tackles they have there.

I am hoping for a similar game script where the Vikings run the ball, get the play action passing game going and get some shots to Diggs and Thielen, build a lead and then hopefully be able to hang on from there. But I guess we'll see.

The Saints did get some yards on their first drive of the game leading to a field goal, but Zimmer must have adjusted to what they were doing and held them in check for most of the rest of the first half. This is another micro trend I have seen with the Vikings. Teams can get some yards on that first drive until Zimmer figures out what they are doing and answers it.

One thing the Vikings don't want to happen is to be playing from behind. If they can't run e ball there will be problems. I think they will be able to run the ball though. Hopefully. I don't really see why not although it won't be as good as Dalvin Cook.

 
You’re right. Plus the Michael Thomas and Brees connection has been really good on the short stuff this year. It’ll be interesting to see(no horse in this race)
Thomas is a very good receiver. Wish the Vikings would have drafted him instead of Treadwell.

The extra week of rest should help Rhodes get healthy. He has indicated as such. Hope its true. Thomas is going to have a difficult time.

The reason the Vikings are usually so good against the screen game is because both Rhodes and Waynes are great tacklers. Newman is solid as well. The Vikings just a good tackling team across the board most of the time. The safeties and linebackers also make it very difficult to get the screen game going. Plus the Vikings do not really blitz much, so they aren't caught out of position and not fooled much by it really. The defensive ends play some good contain as well. They just play it very well and the WR screens too.

The Lions were using TE screens with some effectiveness against the Vikings in one of the games. Perhaps an adjustment being common opponents and knowing that their normal WR and RB screens wouldn't work, so using TE screens instead?

I think the Lions have copied the Saints offense in a lot of ways. Not as good at executing it, but its not like the Vikings aren't used to similar things that I think both of those teams do.

If they could get Ginn matched up on Newman, he isn't quite as fast as he used to be, but he is still so good. I dunno. Alexander plays slot too. He is the least experienced of the corners, but he has played pretty well also. The tackling is coached into them. Alexander kind of poor against the run in college but he has had some big sticks this year as well. Kind of surprising to see as he wasn't playing like that in college at all.

I expect to see Rhodes on Thomas for the most part, so it should be Waynes on Ginn most of the time.

 
>>Associated Press 

Something's gotta give

The NFL's #2 total offense (Saints) will meet the NFL's #1 total defense (Vikings) in this game. Since 1990, a top 2 total offense has faced a top 2 total defense in the playoffs seven times. Six of those seven matchups (including the last three) were won by the defense, with the only exception coming when the 49ers beat the Cowboys in the 1994 NFC Championship Game.<<

NFL.com.

 
>>Associated Press 

The second coming?

Drew Brees has 12 career playoff starts, while Case Keenum has zero. The last quarterback without a playoff start to beat a quarterback with 10-or-more playoff starts in a playoff game? Tim Tebow over Ben Roethlisberger in the 2011 Wild Card Round.<<

 

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