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bulger2holt

Players you will be targeting in 2018

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I'm targeting Jordan Howard.  From what I've seen people are still overlooking him and I think he slides into the mid second round.  He's proven that he's a stud and I only see the offense getting better.

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3 hours ago, Chaka said:

In my league he was QB#22 in PPG over the span of all his starts and QB#14 over his last four.  Not sure how he could reach #2 in any scoring format.

http://www53.myfantasyleague.com/2017/top?L=16262&SEARCHTYPE=BASIC&COUNT=32&YEAR=2017&START_WEEK=14&END_WEEK=17&CATEGORY=overall&POSITION=QB&DISPLAY=points&TEAM=*

:shrug: (I didn't opt to use ppg)

Edited by -OZ-

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On 1/10/2018 at 9:46 AM, -OZ- said:

Last 4 games, 14-17. He didn't do much in week 13 vs the bears.

Is your league's championship week 17?  If not then I'm not sure it's fair to use his numbers from the last week.

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13 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Is your league's championship week 17?  If not then I'm not sure it's fair to use his numbers from the last week.

Of course it is. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't care about your fantasy league.

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2 minutes ago, Chaka said:

Of course it is. Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't care about your fantasy league.

But we're talking about fantasy football performance, aren't we?

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Just now, Hawkeye21 said:

But we're talking about fantasy football performance, aren't we?

We're talking about Garoppolo's performance and trying to project it to fantasy value. Two different things, Garoppolo's season doesn't end in week 16 so his week 17 production is absolutely relevant.

I am open to a position that his end of season PPG or total points production needs to account for the fact that they played the Rams who rested plenty of starters which probably skewed his stats for that game, but what he did on the field in week 17 will factor in to 2018 projections.

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1 minute ago, Chaka said:

We're talking about Garoppolo's performance and trying to project it to fantasy value. Two different things, Garoppolo's season doesn't end in week 16 so his week 17 production is absolutely relevant.

I am open to a position that his end of season PPG or total points production needs to account for the fact that they played the Rams who rested plenty of starters which probably skewed his stats for that game, but what he did on the field in week 17 will factor in to 2018 projections.

Alright.  Makes sense then.  Was he still the second ranked QB as claimed or does that really matter considering the mess that the final week of the season is?

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10 minutes ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Alright.  Makes sense then.  Was he still the second ranked QB as claimed or does that really matter considering the mess that the final week of the season is?

What matters is ultimately up to the individual. 

What you're calling a claim is simply one data point. Irrefutably, in that league, he scored the 2nd most points of any QB over the last 4 games of the season. 

What do you choose to do with that and how you weigh it is certainly debatable. I stand by the proposition that many owners will look at that success and extrapolate it into a full season, then rank him. The wise owner will consider circumstances like you said. They'll also consider his limited time with his team, the questionable receiving corps, and that the defenses didn't really know how to game plan for him either.

I think he gets drafted top 6 in many leagues but that's higher than I'd take him. I probably take him as one of the last starters in a 12 team league or as a priority backup. 

Fwiw, I have JG along with Wilson and brees in one league (I happen to have won it this year) and I feel comfortable trading Brees now (so roll with Russell and Jimmy) if anyone is interested. 

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Week 17 matters to player evaluation, especially when you got a small sample size but it's got two issues. One is it should never be used to compare total fantasy points since a lot of the players don't play that week. Example being it would be misleading to comp Jimmy G's total points from weeks 13-17 vs Big Ben who sat in week 17.

The other items is in week 17 you often face teams that rest key starters or just have nothing on the line.  The Rams, the 49'ers week 17 opponent, fit this criteria.

 

 

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I won't know who I'll reach (or pay a few extra $) for until I see some conclusive ADP/AAV's start to show up, but looking at the "avoid" thread, I think Cooper, Diggs, Crowell will be cheap enough that I might take them at their discounts. If Marvin gets no love again, I'll gladly grab him again. I feel like Corey Coleman and maybe Corey Davis will be cheap enough that I can reach for them and still get them cheaper than they're worth. I didn't pay for him last year, but maybe Doug Baldwin will be a value this year like he was in 2015 and 2016. If Cincy improves their OL, I'll likely try to grab Mixon if people are frustrated about his rookie year. If Eifert has as little value as I expect, he is worth a flyer. 

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1 hour ago, Hawkeye21 said:

Alright.  Makes sense then.  Was he still the second ranked QB as claimed or does that really matter considering the mess that the final week of the season is?

Even being very generous in adjusting for performance and week 17 motivations I have difficulty putting him any higher than QB#10 over that time frame in my league.

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On 1/10/2018 at 7:58 AM, zftcg said:

The guys who will end up being sleepers are the people who, right now, the market has legitimate doubts about. Think of how we regarded Gurley and Hopkins at this time a year ago.

One name to keep an eye on: Allen Robinson. Unclear if he'll still be on the Jags, or who his QB will be, but the fact that he's coming off an ACL tear, and was disappointing the previous year, means he could slide under the radar.

Along both of those lines: whomever is the Jags' QB next year. Bortles had to be one of the most surprising players of the year and you got him for dirt. He has weapons but he's still Blake Bortles. He still might be a late round steal as he had a decent couple of weeks in the last quarter of the season and also gets Robinson back.

Even if he's not their QB, whomever would take those reins walks into a pretty solid looking offense and a defense that'll constantly put you in a good position.

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1 hour ago, Jayded said:

Along both of those lines: whomever is the Jags' QB next year. Bortles had to be one of the most surprising players of the year and you got him for dirt. He has weapons but he's still Blake Bortles. He still might be a late round steal as he had a decent couple of weeks in the last quarter of the season and also gets Robinson back.

Even if he's not their QB, whomever would take those reins walks into a pretty solid looking offense and a defense that'll constantly put you in a good position.

My rule with drafting QBs is that I want to take late-round guys who have the upside to become every-week starters. (That strategy worked out very well for me this year when I got Wentz. Less so on the team where I got Palmer.)

The problem with Bortles is that he may end up being a decent streamer, but he's unlikely to become an every week starter. So I doubt I would look to draft him next year.

On the other hand, if Jax even slightly upgrades its QB -- say, Alex Smith or Tyrod -- I would be more intrigued. We saw what the Jax QB can do when the defense stakes him a lead.

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if Mike Evans is slipping in drafts to where I think he might I will be owning him often. That situation became a hot mess this year... on many fronts... his talent is to great.

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7 hours ago, Chaka said:

We're talking about Garoppolo's performance and trying to project it to fantasy value. Two different things, Garoppolo's season doesn't end in week 16 so his week 17 production is absolutely relevant.

I am open to a position that his end of season PPG or total points production needs to account for the fact that they played the Rams who rested plenty of starters which probably skewed his stats for that game, but what he did on the field in week 17 will factor in to 2018 projections.

Rams took the week off.  Good for JG but I would throw out that week as an aberration.

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Marvin Jones.  He doesn't quite fit the profile because he performed this year, but it seems he is still quite undervalued, particularly in any sort of keeper or dynasty format.  I think he won Stafford's confidence this year and the younger WRs on the team will not turn out to be the threat to his targets that most think.

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Derrick Henry.

 

ESPN's Cameron Wolfe believes there's a "decent chance" DeMarco Murray has played his final snap in a Titans uniform.

Already ruled out for the Divisional Round, Murray, who has a torn MCL, would be a long-shot for the AFC Championship Game even if the Titans sprang a seismic upset on Saturday night. One month shy of his 30th birthday, Murray slumped to a career-worst 3.58 yards per carry as he played injured in 2017. 23-year-old sophomore Derrick Henry has looked more than capable of taking over the Titans' workhorse role. If Murray is cut, his entire $6.5 million salary would come off the books, leaving behind no dead money.

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2 hours ago, JohnnyU said:

Derrick Henry.

 

ESPN's Cameron Wolfe believes there's a "decent chance" DeMarco Murray has played his final snap in a Titans uniform.

Already ruled out for the Divisional Round, Murray, who has a torn MCL, would be a long-shot for the AFC Championship Game even if the Titans sprang a seismic upset on Saturday night. One month shy of his 30th birthday, Murray slumped to a career-worst 3.58 yards per carry as he played injured in 2017. 23-year-old sophomore Derrick Henry has looked more than capable of taking over the Titans' workhorse role. If Murray is cut, his entire $6.5 million salary would come off the books, leaving behind no dead money.

:mellow:   DeMarco just put up 1,650 yards and 12 TDs a year ago in that offense.  Was RB6 and ADP10 last year last September.

Edited by BigSteelThrill

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Guys who’ll be undervalued

Matt Ryan - he’ll be better.  Won’t be 2016 better...but he’s likely drafted in double digit rounds in ‘18.

Dion Lewis - Hoodie loves him and all he does is overcome adversity and free agent signings at his position.

Sammy Watkins - injuries and ‘situation’ have conspired against him.  But he’s still young and uber-talented...in an offense that could render him overlooked by opposing defenses.

 

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8 hours ago, DropKick said:

Rams took the week off.  Good for JG but I would throw out that week as an aberration.

But no one will when preparing for next year's redrafts.

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13 hours ago, zftcg said:

My rule with drafting QBs is that I want to take late-round guys who have the upside to become every-week starters. (That strategy worked out very well for me this year when I got Wentz. Less so on the team where I got Palmer.)

The problem with Bortles is that he may end up being a decent streamer, but he's unlikely to become an every week starter. So I doubt I would look to draft him next year.

On the other hand, if Jax even slightly upgrades its QB -- say, Alex Smith or Tyrod -- I would be more intrigued. We saw what the Jax QB can do when the defense stakes him a lead.

Crazy world we live in where Tyrod Taylor is an upgrade to the qb on a division champion. You might be right but if they upgrade I'd assume they'd want more of an upgrade than ty.

10 hours ago, DropKick said:

Rams took the week off.  Good for JG but I would throw out that week as an aberration.

That's fine, but the aberration was right in line with his other performances. Actually was his lowest rating, and for ff lower than his two previous weeks. (Again, your league may differ). If you simply mean you won't expect 300/2/2 at the Rams next year, ok. But that game wasn't much different than his performances against Houston, Tennessee and Jacksonville. Two of which obviously won last week largely due to their defenses. 

I'm actually not trying to oversell Jimmy but also not overlook. I think he's one of the hardest players to rank right now.  One person here thinks he's better than Wilson, that's too far imo but he might be on par with Goff.

Edited by -OZ-
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Is Jimmy Garoppolo overvalued?

He faced a tough pass D in Chicago and was meh. He had 290 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT.

He faced a bad Texans D and put up 330, 1, and 1. And a mediocre Tennessee D and put up 380 and 1 TD.

The game that a lot of people point to is the Jags game where he put up 22 points (in a 4 pt per passing TD league). But that could be a deceptive game to point to. The Jags played across the country twice this year, and both times they allowed 240 yards and 2 TDs. To Jimmy Garoppolo, and ... Blaine Gabbert. The Jags just didn't travel well.

His last game he faced an ok pass D in the Rams, and put up a mediocre score, 15 points.

He was hampered by coming in so late and having little time to get acclimated to the offense, but he also doesn't have too much tape for defensive coordinators to learn how to scheme against him. He's almost like facing off against a rookie (who often regress in their second years). I'm not sure how high people are looking at Jimmy G, but I've heard analysts gushing over him and it might be time to pump the brakes a bit.

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10 hours ago, BigSteelThrill said:

:mellow:   DeMarco just put up 1,650 yards and 12 TDs a year ago in that offense.  Was RB6 and ADP10 last year last September.

That won't mean squat to Henry if he's not in Tennessee in 2018.  Saving 6.5 million on a 30 year old RB is a no brainer. 

Edited by JohnnyU

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9 hours ago, steelers1080 said:

Is Jimmy Garoppolo overvalued?

He faced a tough pass D in Chicago and was meh. He had 290 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT.

He faced a bad Texans D and put up 330, 1, and 1. And a mediocre Tennessee D and put up 380 and 1 TD.

The game that a lot of people point to is the Jags game where he put up 22 points (in a 4 pt per passing TD league). But that could be a deceptive game to point to. The Jags played across the country twice this year, and both times they allowed 240 yards and 2 TDs. To Jimmy Garoppolo, and ... Blaine Gabbert. The Jags just didn't travel well.

His last game he faced an ok pass D in the Rams, and put up a mediocre score, 15 points.

He was hampered by coming in so late and having little time to get acclimated to the offense, but he also doesn't have too much tape for defensive coordinators to learn how to scheme against him. He's almost like facing off against a rookie (who often regress in their second years). I'm not sure how high people are looking at Jimmy G, but I've heard analysts gushing over him and it might be time to pump the brakes a bit.

Yep. I view him as a solid QB2. Nothing more. Not looking to buy. Would pay an early 3 for him, that’s it. Based on what I’m seeing in other threads many seem to be viewing him as worthy of a 1st which means he must be top 5? Crazy to me.

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On 1/10/2018 at 9:02 AM, Dr. Octopus said:

Garcon?

What about Goodwin all he did was produce when Jimmy G. went in Garcon went out.

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On 1/10/2018 at 10:34 AM, Bracie Smathers said:

Until I get a better read on what RBs might fall, Baker Mayfield = Picking late In the first of a dynasty rookie draft.

Players you will be targeting in 2018

By bulger2holt, January 9, 2018 in The Shark Pool (NFL Talk) 

Posted January 10, 2018

-----------------------------

BTW he didn't fall to my pick. (I got Guice after his injury)

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On 1/11/2018 at 10:00 PM, by_the_sea_wannabe said:

I would guess Jordy Nelson, Demaryius Thomas, Dez Bryant, DeVante Parker, and Jay Ajayi will be on a lot of my teams next year

 

 

Jesus man. Not calling you out at all - lots of calls that were off in here. But wow, hopefully it didn’t go down like that for you last year.

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2 hours ago, kutta said:

Jesus man. Not calling you out at all - lots of calls that were off in here. But wow, hopefully it didn’t go down like that for you last year.

Thankfully other than Thomas, I guessed wrong. 

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