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***Official*** Beto O'Rourke Thread (4 Viewers)

Mr. Ham said:
Posted this also in the Election thread:

Wow!  Republicans are ####ed!  In line now for early voting in Texas.  I’ve voted at this same polling place on Election Day for Presidential elections and the line was less than half as long.  I’ve got about a football field of line between me and the booth.  Amazing.  Turnout may be much, much higher than expected on the Left. 

Granted, a disprotionate population may be coiled and want to vote TODAY, but still.  This is unexpected.  It’s after 2pm, so this isn’t even the lunch crew.  This may be an hour wait.
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1) You live in the Austin area. 

2) Trump filled the freaking Toyota Center in Houston on a weeknight for a midterm campaign. 

 
Hilts said:
Cruz jokes about locking up Beto O'Rourke in 'double-occupancy cell' with Clinton as supporters chant "Lock him up!"
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So is this just what Republicans do now? Go to rallies and cheer for the imprisonment of political opponents? What crime has Beto O'Route supposedly committed such that he should be jailed? I saw this about Liz Warren too and was a bit baffled because I don't think that lying about your ancestry, or whatever egregious sin she committed, is actually a crime. 

I think it may have been another thread I was reading tonight where another poster was saying it was hyperbole to imply we were headed towards fascism. 

 
TheMagus said:
So is this just what Republicans do now? Go to rallies and cheer for the imprisonment of political opponents? What crime has Beto O'Route supposedly committed such that he should be jailed?
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He probably threw away some junk mail at some point that was addressed to someone else but mistakenly delivered to him. That's punishable by up to five years in federal prison. (Seriously.)

 
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prefontaine said:
a week out and Beto has his first lead in any poll as far as I know. One poll doesn't mean much, but it's an optics thing to enthuse voters. 
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Wish it were, but alas:

The survey, which was composed among a population of 992 adults, had a credibility interval of 4 percentage points. It was conducted between Sept. 6 and Sept. 14. 
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My wife told me that she heard a statistic that voters under 30yo are up ~600%, while voters 60yo+ are up ~95%.

Cannot really extrapolate anything from this yet, but certainly seems promising.

 
Tom Skerritt said:
My wife told me that she heard a statistic that voters under 30yo are up ~600%, while voters 60yo+ are up ~95%.

Cannot really extrapolate anything from this yet, but certainly seems promising.
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No really can't.  Some random guy on the innerwebs heard from his wife who heard from an unknown source some statistics on voters being up based on age group.  Not really Nate Silver quality claim ;)  

 
caustic said:
Compared to 2014. Young turnout is up over 500% while African-American and Latino turnout has roghly doubled: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/midterms-2018-election-early-voting-texas-georgia-beto-orourke-ted-cruz-trump-a8609916.html

Georgia has seen a big surge as well, with 19-28 year old turnout up 476%, African American turnout up 165%, and Hispanic turnout up 571%. 
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So this is a comparison of early voting turnout in comparable mid-terms? That's pretty apples to apples, I hope these numbers are accurate and hold true through Tuesday.

 
prefontaine said:
a week out and Beto has his first lead in any poll as far as I know. One poll doesn't mean much, but it's an optics thing to enthuse voters. 
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Ipsos is great for an online poll system but I'd like to see a live cell phone/land line poll to see what kind of difference there is. 

 
I heard him on Hardball last night for the first time (I know I know I’m late to the ballgame) and I was impressed. He certainly excited the crowd. 

 
OK, here's an actual recent poll, as opposed to one conducted in September:

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/31/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-poll-uttyler-texas/

Republican U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz leads challenger U.S. Rep. Beto O’Rourke, D-El Paso, by 3.6 percentage points among likely voters in a new University of Texas at Tyler poll released Wednesday.

According to the poll, which is the first one released by the university, 47 percent of the 905 likely voters surveyed online and on the phone said they would vote for Cruz, while 43.4 percent said they would vote for O’Rourke; 5.7 percent said they were “not sure,” and 3.9 percent chose “other.”
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The fact that this is their first of the race means it's hard to glean too much from it, since we can't track movement since the last poll. Also, looked them up in 538's pollster ratings and either they are the "University of Texas" online poll (grade of B-) or they're not in there at all.

Anyway, my takeaway is that Beto is still behind so get out there and canvass your a## off.

 
Reminder that a small percentage increase on a REALLY BIG number can swamp a really big percentage increase on a VERY SMALL number, i.e.:

1000 * 95% = +950

100 * 500% = +500

 
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zftcg said:
OK, here's an actual recent poll, as opposed to one conducted in September:

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/10/31/ted-cruz-beto-orourke-poll-uttyler-texas/

The fact that this is their first of the race means it's hard to glean too much from it, since we can't track movement since the last poll. Also, looked them up in 538's pollster ratings and either they are the "University of Texas" online poll (grade of B-) or they're not in there at all.

Anyway, my takeaway is that Beto is still behind so get out there and canvass your a## off.
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Anyone who thinks Robert has a chance is kidding themselves. 

I can understand why college educated white males would jump on his bandwagon, just comparing his charisma to the rest of the party. 

But he has zero chance of winning in TX. 

Just a reminder:

  • His name is actually Robert O'Rourke, and he is of Irish ancestry
  • He attended Woodberry Forest, one of the most elite prep schools in the nation, located in Virginia not the barrio
  • His father was a judge
  • His mother ran a crooked business (that had to settle with the IRS over fraud charges "The shop accepted more than $630,000 in cash payments from an unidentified customer and altered records so daily transactions were not reported to the IRS, according to a plea agreement between the company and the government. )
  • His father in law is a billionaire investor that tried to demolish the barrio and displace thousands of poor Mexicans so he could put up loft condos and a Whole Foods in downtown El Paso
  • He rides a skateboard in a Whataburger parking lot to show he is hip
  • He culturally appropriated the name Beto so that low info people would think he is Mexican
  • He spent $18 million on a consulting firm after saying he would not use consultants
  • H has taken in $70 million, most of which has come from OUT OF STATE donors and via ActBlue/ShareBlue (the left wing version of Bannon/Breitbart), talk about election meddling
  • Texas is still a conservative state regardless of how many liberals move from their failed home states to Austin and The Woodlands for a better life


I do have to give him credit for figuring out a way to pocket tens of millions of dollars in an election he never had a chance of winning. Good family genes I suppose.

 
I admit that a couple of those sound pretty shady. However, I don't get the big deal about his name. My understanding is that he's had the nickname since he was a kid. That's what his parents called him.

 
NFL2DF said:
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"Don't vote for the guy who attended an elite prep school, came from a wealthy family, has parents who ran a crooked business, has billionaire inlaws, and breaks promises on campaign funding!!"

Got it. :lol:

 
Um, yeah. When you appoint a rich prep-school elitist as the leader of your party, you lose the ability to play that card against your opponent. WOMP WOMP.

 
NFL2DF said:
Anyone who thinks Robert has a chance is kidding themselves. 

I can understand why college educated white males would jump on his bandwagon, just comparing his charisma to the rest of the party. 

But he has zero chance of winning in TX. 

Just a reminder:

  • His name is actually Robert O'Rourke, and he is of Irish ancestry
  • He attended Woodberry Forest, one of the most elite prep schools in the nation, located in Virginia not the barrio
  • His father was a judge
  • His mother ran a crooked business (that had to settle with the IRS over fraud charges "The shop accepted more than $630,000 in cash payments from an unidentified customer and altered records so daily transactions were not reported to the IRS, according to a plea agreement between the company and the government. )
  • His father in law is a billionaire investor that tried to demolish the barrio and displace thousands of poor Mexicans so he could put up loft condos and a Whole Foods in downtown El Paso
  • He rides a skateboard in a Whataburger parking lot to show he is hip
  • He culturally appropriated the name Beto so that low info people would think he is Mexican
  • He spent $18 million on a consulting firm after saying he would not use consultants
  • H has taken in $70 million, most of which has come from OUT OF STATE donors and via ActBlue/ShareBlue (the left wing version of Bannon/Breitbart), talk about election meddling
  • Texas is still a conservative state regardless of how many liberals move from their failed home states to Austin and The Woodlands for a better life


I do have to give him credit for figuring out a way to pocket tens of millions of dollars in an election he never had a chance of winning. Good family genes I suppose.
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And, on the other hand, you have Ted Cruz.  Barf.  

 
NFL2DF said:
H has taken in $70 million, most of which has come from OUT OF STATE donors and via ActBlue/ShareBlue (the left wing version of Bannon/Breitbart), talk about election meddling
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Remind me, do you consider that a good thing or a bad thing?

(For anyone wondering, ActBlue is a platform that makes it easier for people to donate to liberal candidates. It resembles an alt-right publication like Breitbart the way a fish resembles a tire iron.)

 
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Dinsy Ejotuz said:
Reminder that a small percentage increase on a REALLY BIG number can swamp a really big percentage increase on a VERY SMALL number, i.e.:

1000 * 95% = +950

100 * 500% = +500
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I was told there’d be no math.

 
Roy L Fewks said:
Um, yeah. When you appoint a rich prep-school elitist as the leader of your party, you lose the ability to play that card against your opponent. WOMP WOMP.
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I thought everyone already knew the Democrats are the party of the elites.

 
Curious to see if you get banned for editing someone's quote let I did.  You have done it multiple times without punishment.  I guess you just have to be on the right "side" as the moderators.

 
With Bernie back in 2016 there really did seem to be the idea that he "ran out of time" - maybe he gets in the race earlier or maybe he gets a couple more months and he could have gotten the nomination.  With Beto, I want to think that's true but I just don't think Texas is quite ready to turn blue.  So, running out of time may be true here but we are measuring in years vs. months.

 
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